Carmila S.A. (CARM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Carmila's First half 2022 Results Presentation. Let's get started with the key takeaways. Retail sales continued to improve. In Q2, they were up by 5% versus 2019. The good momentum on leasing activity has continued after a record 2021. Retailers from across all sectors continue to open new stores. Occupancy is high and wines more affordable, which helps to pivot to new concept and services. This transformation explains why we have like-for-like growth in the rental base of more than 4%, and like-for-like increase in appraisal values of plus 1.1% versus end 2021. As well as this organic growth of the rental base, we have had a faster-than-expected normalization of wine collection post-COVID. As a consequence, H1 recurring earnings per share are 59% higher than last year. Finally, maintaining a strong balance sheet is a management priority. As of end June, Carmila's LTV ratio is down at 36.9%. Turning to the next slide on the events that have taken place in the first half of the year. The most important achievement was the sale of a portfolio of 6 assets in France through a joint venture with Batipart and ATLAND Voisin. The price of EUR 150 million was in line with appraisal values at end 2021. The deal is the first transaction of the asset rotation program announced at our Capital Markets Day last December. It shows the liquidity of Carmila's assets at favorable conditions. We said in December that the proceeds of disposal will be used to finance new investments and share buybacks. In H1, Carmila acquired Rosaleda shopping center in Malaga for EUR 24 million and completed EUR 30 million of share buybacks. Because the shares have outperformed and daily transaction volumes have increased, in June, Carmila joins SBF 120. On the funding side, last week, Carmila signed a new EUR 550 million sustainability linked term loan, further improving its liquidity position and covering upcoming refinancing out in the second half of 2024. Finally, on the outlook for 2022, we now have more visibility and are more optimistic for full year earnings. Recurring EPS is expected to grow by 20% this year versus 2021. Pierre-Yves Thirion, Carmila's CFO, will explain in more detail shortly. So our strong financial performance is encouraging. We are obviously looking closely at the economic environment which is full of uncertainties, and we are monitoring the impact on consumption. One feature of the current environment that I wanted to touch on briefly is the latest figures on e-commerce. E-commerce sales will continue to grow. But a lot of the growth we saw during the COVID crisis was a one-off. A return to a more normal level post-COVID was expected. And you can see it in the data that has been published so far this year. There has been a lot of concern about the long-term profitability of certain business models; the cost, an environmental impact of home delivery, for example. It is important to note that some large fashion retailers are no longer offering free e-commerce returns. I'd like to talk about the triumph of omnichannel because I think it is becoming clear that it is the winning model. The retailers that are successful are those that have developed an omnichannel model based on physical stores offering a good customer experience combined with e-commerce. The transformation of retail also has to match the pace of change in different markets. E-commerce penetration is structurally lower in France, Spain and Italy than in China or the U.K. Turning to Slide 6 on why Carmila has performed well. There are 4 reasons. The first is local leaders around dynamic medium-sized cities where most people live, Carmila shopping centers remain the most convenient retail solution in these medium-sized cities. And post-COVID, these cities are becoming more attractive. The second factor is the Carrefour anchor. Carrefour has been gaining market share in both France and Spain. Hypermarkets are a discount format so it should continue to drive footfall with higher inflation and an economic slowdown. Carmila benefits from Carrefour's market-leading position in omnichannel retail. The third factor is all the work that has been done to adapt the merchandising mix of shopping centers. With affordable rents, Carmila centers can pivot to services and new concepts. The focus on health care has been a great success. Carmila currently has 310 health care tenants. And by 2026, Carmila is targeting 15% of retail income from health care. Finally, Carmila has a strong track record of transforming assets in partnership with Carrefour through large expansion of smaller development projects such as new outdoor restaurants on parking space or creating new spaces for midsized tenants. This expertise in creating value from existing assets will become increasingly important as the French restricts new greenfield development. Turning to Slide 7 on energy transition. Corporate social responsibility is at the heart of Carmila's strategy: building sustainable growth. With energy prices at record levels, energy efficiency is clearly more important than ever. Carmila is working to reduce power consumption at peak times to maintain great capacity as part of the EcoWatt Charter signed by French businesses, including Carrefour. For Carmila, clearly, the main source of carbon emissions and energy consumption is heating and cooling. Over the past few years, Carmila has implemented new technology to enable us to centrally manage the heating and cooling of centers to better track and reduce energy consumption. Carmila is also testing new air conditioning solutions. You can see a new air conditioning system being airlifted onto the roof of the Orléans Place d'Arc center. This is a test project using an evaporative or adiabatic process to reduce water use and energy consumption. Carrefour is also currently deploying electric car charging stations in all hypermarket car parks, which means that all Carmila centers will have electric car charging stations by end 2023. Through focused investments Carmila aims to reduce by 90% its carbon emissions by 2030. The remaining 10% will be offset for investment in the energy transition of local farms in partnership with an organization called TerraTerre. Finally, a brief word on Carmila's growth initiatives, each of which are expected to deliver EUR 10 million of incremental recurring earnings annually from 2026. We will go into more detail with full year results, but so far, we are on track with the business plan. The omnichannel incubator should deliver a EUR 2 million contribution to recurring earnings this year from marketing and digital services charged to trade associations. Next Tower is delivering its pipeline of new mobile towers and will have secured annualized rent of close to EUR 2 million. The Next Tower project is also being launched in Spain. Finally, the more developed partnerships of Carmila Retail Development will start to make a meaningful contribution to P&L. Carmila's share of the EBITDA of these businesses in 2022 should be around EUR 2 million. I will now leave the floor to Sebastien to go into more detail on the operating performance of Carmila.

Thank you, Marie. Hello, everyone. Let's look back on the last 6 months. You can see on the chart footfall and retailer sales for France and Spain. There are a few interesting things to point out. Firstly, you can see the impact of the Omicron variant in January 2022. Secondly, there is a full recovery in retailer sales but still lower footfall, though it is higher than peers, especially in France. Thirdly, in Q2, retailer sales were well above to 2019 level. And lastly, both footfall and retailer sales have progressively recovered in Spain. One of the drivers has been the recovery in tourism. The overall message is that retailer sales have fully recovered, but we still have a lower level of footfall than in 2019. The COVID crisis does seem to have had a lasting impact on consumer behavior. Customers aren't coming as often, but the average amount they spend per visit is higher. Now turning to commercial activity. After a record 2021, commercial momentum has remained very strong in the first half of 2022. 517 new leases were signed, up 6.2% of the rental base. In terms of annual rent, that is 17% higher than in H1 2019, though it is down by 16% from a record first half 2021. We have continued to see positive reversion, plus 2.8% on average above the previous level of rents. That positive reversion figure is in the top of the indexation effect on January 1. The figures provided by Carmila for commercial activity are for typical long-term leases only. There is no change to the term of the leases or incentives. The strong commercial activity has helped us to keep occupancy at a high level. The financial occupancy rate of 96.2% is in line with the pre-COVID level. The fact that we have been able to maintain this good level of commercial activity is clearly very encouraging. Turning to Slide 12. Just to give you a quick idea of the retailers that have signed with new leases with Carmila in H1. You can see the usual mix of household names and newer concepts. Health care tenants are now an established part of Carmila centers, and we continue to rent new space to health care providers. Purchasing power is on everybody's mind. Normal and Action are having a lot of success in opening new stores. We are seeing appetite for new stores from retailers in clothing, footwear, services, leisure and beauty. Some sectors, such as home furnishing, are doing extremely well after the lockdown experience and with more working from home. In our conversations with retailers, they do mention the uncertain outlook, higher costs, problems recruiting in some sectors. But at the same time, they continue to open new stores with Carmila. Now turning to Slide 13 and a few examples of what Carmila is doing on omnichannel marketing and events. We are using new tools to measure and increase the effectiveness of our online marketing campaigns. In the middle of the slide, we've given an example from Carmila's national event strategy. Throughout the year, Carmila organized promotion and competitions alongside brands and retailers: flowers for Valentine's Day; chocolates at Easter; clothes, sporting goods and accessories for the summer. This summer, we've partnered with Deezer to provide promotion offers, games and prizes as well as live events in Carmila centers. Finally, one of the most effective ways of boosting footfall is by renting vacant space for 1 to 4 days sales events. In 2022, there will be around 100 sales events in Carmila centers. One of the most popular products has been rare and customized sneakers. The boost to footfall can be up to 50% on the first day of big events. Now turning to the pipeline on Slide 14. As described in December, Carmila has a pipeline of 5 major extension projects for EUR 550 million of CapEx, the big blue points on the map. No building work is currently underway on any of this project. In the current environment of high inflation, this is a good position to be in. The first project in the pipeline is Montesson. Works are scheduled to start at the end of 2023 at the earliest. We have plenty of time to add up projects to higher construction costs under the new economic outlook. On mixed-use development, the 2 most advanced projects at Nantes Beaujoire and Sartrouville are shown on the map. We are pushing forward with our partners on these projects, Carrefour and Altarea Cogedim. Finally, smaller restructuring projects will continue as planned. Now let's look in more detail at some of the smaller projects in France on Slide 15. We've given on the slide a few examples of the kind of projects that are currently underway. The first is a restructuring project in Laval where we are transforming the asset with new retailers and renovation of part of the center. Another example is the outdoor food court at Puget sur Argens. Part of the car park is being redeveloped into 4 new restaurants. The Puget project will be delivered in 2023, but 8 similar mini extension projects with new restaurants will be delivered this year. Having access to the car parks of center for future development is a real advantage for Carmila and we have a strong track record in projects of this kind. Finally, we have a few examples of new midsized anchor tenants, Normal in Vannes and Action in Sannois and Toulouse Purpan. In France, this year, we plan to deliver 33 more small projects for a total amount of additional rental income of EUR 1.7 million. There are several similar projects in Spain, and the business in Spain has bounced back with a recovery in tourism and the local economy. That is why we have also invited Sebastian Palacios who is the Head of Carmila's Spanish business to give a brief presentation today. So I now leave the floor to Sebastian.

Thank you, Sebastien. Hello, everyone. Today, I'm going to give you a brief overview of Carmila's business in Spain. Spain accounts for 23% of Carmila's portfolio by value for a total of EUR 1.4 billion. Carmila has a large number of assets across the country, 79 in total, with a particularly strong presence in the coastal regions. The Spanish business has very similar features to the rest of Carmila, Carrefour hypermarket, anchor and affordable rents, with an occupancy cost ratio of around 11%. We are also seeing the same positive trends on the ground: high occupancy, recovering retailer sales, rent collection back to normal and positive renovation. Passing on higher indexation to tenants has not been a problem. This has driven the strong organic growth in the rental base of more than 5%. From a longer-term perspective, the Spanish portfolio has more than doubled in physical size since the creation of Carmila in 2014, and the value has more than trebled. That growth has come both from acquisitions, 16 in total; and organic growth in the rental base, including a 20% improvement in financial occupancy. Turning to the next slide, you can see 3 of Carmila's flagship assets in Spain. First, Holea, which is near Sevilla in Southwest Spain, it's a regional shopping destination and the clear leader in its catchment area with 7 million visits a year, over 100 stores, 100% occupancy and a strong mix of tenants, including in Inditex, H&M, Primark and Mango. In the middle of the slide, you have a photo of FAN, the largest shopping mall in Mallorca, located 4 kilometers from the airport, one of the most popular tourist destinations. Finally, As Cancelas, which is a joint venture with Realia, in which Carmila holds 50%. It's located in Northwestern Spain, in the suburbs of Santiago de Compostela. It has 121 stores, 7 million visitors a year and was fully renovated in 2020. Aside from these flagship destination malls, the Spanish portfolio is also made up of the smaller local leaders that are typical at Carmila and where footfall is driven by the Carrefour hypermarket. Finally, turning to Slide 18. You have a selection of value-creating projects from this year. I will start with the Rosaleda acquisition in May 2022. Rosaleda is a shopping center in Malaga, a tourist destination on the Costa del Sol. It has a Carrefour hypermarket and a leading position in its catchment area with a leisure complex, a cinema and 5.8 million visitors a year. The acquisition is an opportunity for Carmila to transform the asset and improve the merchandise mix in a midsized local leader center. You can also see on the slide some of the smaller projects that we will deliver this year in Spain and Italy: the renovation of a center in Albacete in Southwestern Spain; restructuring at the Gran Sur center near Gibraltar; a small renovation project in Alicante; transforming and renovating part of a center in Madrid; finally, a project in Paderno, Italy to install a family entertainment and leisure complex. These projects are very attractive in terms of return and will deliver EUR 1.3 million of additional annual net rental income. It has been a pleasure to talk to you about Carmila's Spanish business today. I will now leave the floor to Pierre-Yves for the H1 2022 financial performance.

Thank you, Sebastian. Hello, everyone. First, on the appraisal value of the portfolio on Slide 20. The increase in valuation is driven by the strong operational results and the growth of the rental base as just explained. As a consequence, the valuation of Carmila's portfolio is up plus 1.1% on a like-for-like basis. The disposal of a portfolio of 6 assets in France was finalized at the end of June. It was partially offset by like-for-like growth and the Rosaleda acquisition in Spain, so the overall portfolio remains at around EUR 6.2 billion. Looking specifically at the net potential yield on Slide 21. They increased slightly to 6.26% on average. There are several things to say about this. The first is that it is not surprising that cap rates have increased given the increase in long-term rates. The second is that, unlike for many other lower yielding real estate asset classes, the risk premium versus benchmark rates remain quite large. If you look at the difference between the 10-year euro swap rates and the average cap rate of Carmila's portfolio, it is around 450 basis points as of today. That is a large buffer. You can see that cap rates did not follow benchmark rates on the downward trend since 2017. The increase in appraisal values at end June 2022 was entirely driven by growth in rental base with both indexation and additional organic growth above indexation. For Carmila, the affordable level of rents and positive reversion make our appraisers more confident on the value of assets as did the transaction in the market, including Carmila's disposal of a portfolio in line with the appraisal values at end 2021. Now turning to rent collection and net rental income on Slide 22. Net rental income is above the 2019 level and is up plus 34.6% versus H1 2021. A large part of the increase is directly related to COVID effects. It also includes exceptional income of EUR 5 million from better-than-expected 2021 and 2020 rent recovery. Rent collection has almost fully returned to the 2019 level. It has normalized more quickly than expected. On top of that, there has been very strong organic growth. Adjusted for COVID effects and the nonrecurring income in 2022, organic growth in net rental income was plus 4.8% versus H1 2021, of which an indexation effect of plus 3%, and that is the highest level of growth since the IPO of Carmila. On the next slide, you have the P&L line by line. I won't go through all of the details. You have the change in net rental income just described. The cost base is slightly down. Part of the decrease comes from new services billed to retail associations as part of the omnichannel services platform. In the simplified P&L, it is a reduction in cost, but it is actually new fee income for Carmila. Financial expenses are stable with no significant change to the financial structure. Given the stable cost base and the post-COVID driven net rental income, the increase in recurring earnings stands at plus 62%. Now on Slide 24, you have the recurring earnings per share, up 59%, in line with the increase in the recurring earnings on the previous slide. The increase comes from faster normalization of rent collection, positive indexation, organic growth on top of indexation. There is also the nonrecurring net rental income in H1. So you shouldn't expect full year recurring EPS to be twice the H1 level. That brings us to the revised outlook for full year 2022 recurring earnings per share. We now expect recurring EPS to increase by 20% versus 2021. That means that we will overtake the guidance announced at the Capital Markets Day. Firstly, we will meet the 2-year objective of 20% growth 1 year earlier than expected, and we will compensate the dilutive effects of the 2022 asset disposal with stronger like-for-like growth. Secondly, growth will continue in 2023 supported by the high level of indexation as in 2022 and by organic growth. We'll provide precise recurring EPS guidance for 2023 at the annual results presentation. Now on the balance sheet and starting with the net tangible asset value per share. It stands at EUR 24.82 and is up plus 1.2% versus end 2021. There is the small positive impact from the increase in the appraisal value of assets. Recurring earnings were EUR 0.83 per share. There is a cash dividend of EUR 1 and the impact of the share buyback. Turning to the next slide and the loan to value. Another positive is that the LTV ratio has decreased by around 50 basis points to 36.9%. The decrease in the LTV is mainly driven by the disposal of the portfolio of 6 assets in France. Unlike last year, we have a normal level of funds from operation as rent collection is back to normal. We are comfortable with the current level of the LTV of around 37% in the current environment. On liquidity and funding, the situation is also very positive. Last week, Carmila signed a new sustainability linked EUR 550 million term loan maturing in 2027, with 2 extension options of 1 year each. This new unsecured credit line refinances an existing term loan of EUR 170 million maturing in 2014 (sic) [ 2024 ]. It also replaces the first undrawn tranche of revolving credit facility of EUR 270 million maturing in 2024. Carmila's cash position, once the fund of the new term loan are made available, will be sufficient to cover in full the repayments of the outstanding bond maturing in September 2023. This means that no additional refinancing is needed until the second half of 2024. The spread of the new term loan is 3 months Euribor plus 180 basis points and the average funding cost of Carmila as of today is 2.3%. Carmila's BBB rating was confirmed by Standard & Poor's in July and debt and liquidity metrics continue to improve with the post-COVID recovery in financial performance. As of today, 100% of Carmila debt is either fixed debt or hedged with swaps and caps. And we have locked fixed rates until at least 2026 on 85% of outstanding debt. Now turning to asset rotation. Out of a targeted aggregate amount of disposal of EUR 200 million, Carmila has already closed the sale of a portfolio of 6 assets in France for EUR 150 million. The sale price was in line with appraisal values, and it was the first time that the buyer has acquired shopping centers which is a sign of greater interest in the asset class. We started share buybacks before the transaction was closed. Carmila also acquired the Rosaleda shopping center in Malaga. We are continuing to work on the disposal target of EUR 200 million by year-end 2023. To wrap up today's financial presentation, there are a few points I would like you to keep in mind: a like-for-like increase in appraisal value of 1.1%; a comfortable LTV ratio of 36.9%, including transfer taxes; the rebound in recurring EPS with organic growth of rental income of close to 5%. Carmila expects to reach its initial 2023 recurring EPS growth targets at the end of this year with 10% annual EPS growth, and organic growth is expected to continue next year. Finally, the dividend policy is a payout of 75% of recurring earning with the floor at EUR 1. The first half of 2022 has been a strong start to the new financial plan. We are fully confident that Carmila can deliver financially this year and beyond. I will now leave the floor to Marie for the conclusion.

Thank you very much, Pierre-Yves. Just a few words to conclude today's presentation. The financial and commercial performance in H1 shows that Carmila has attractive assets. The key thing to highlight is the return to organic growth. Financial performance this year is expected to be better than announced at Carmila's Capital Markets Day in December, and growth in the core business should continue next year supported by indexation and Carmila's growth initiatives. I'm fully confident that Carmila can outperform in this environment. We are now available to answer your questions. Let's start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Stéphane Afonso from Invest Securities.

So 3 questions on my side. The first one regarding your 2023 FFO guidance. So you're expecting the FFO to grow in line with organic growth. By that, do you mean like-for-like rent growth on also initiative or just the like-for-like on rent? Also, one question on interest rate and hedging policy. Could we have an idea of the level that you could reach on your cost of debt within 3 to 4 years? And finally, could you elaborate a bit more on your disposal plan in view of the current situation in the investment market, in particular in terms of valuation and timing?

Well, I will take the first and the third, and Pierre-Yves will take the second one. So on the EPS target for next year, we still expect recurring EPS growth to continue in 2023 from organic growth in rental income, including a positive indexation effect and all the growth initiatives. We will have more visibility on expected 2023 recurring earnings, including the exact indexation effect at the beginning of next year. So we will be in a position to provide a more precise guidance when the full year results will be published in February. That's for your first question. On the third question, the disposal, we are still working for the next disposal, and we will keep you posted, but we maintain our objective of EUR 20 million (sic) [ EUR 200 million ] of disposal until the end of next year.

And then for your second question on the hedging strategy and on the cost of debt, it stands today at 2.3%. As you see, we are fully hedged against the interest cost increase. So the hedging position is at 100% as of today. The next refinancing is in end of 2014. So until the end of 2014, we don't expect changes in the cost of debt. And I think the transaction and the new refinancing that we have just performed is a good sign. We just signed a new term loan at a margin of 180 basis points, which was more or less in line with our previous financing. So we don't expect so far a major increase in the cost of financing.

Okay. And maybe one last question, does the EUR 5 million positive effect in H1 included within the recurring earning?

Yes, it is included in the recurring earnings in H1. We have those EUR 5 million. It comes from better rent recovery from 2020 and 2021. It is included.

The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO.

I would have maybe several questions. So first question on your Montesson project. So we understand that work will not start before the end of 2023 and maybe you can arbitrate depending on the cost of the project. If you don't start the Montesson project at the end of 2023, are you committed in terms of objectives maybe to make some, I don't know, acquisitions if you don't invest in the Montesson project? So that would be my first question. My second question is on the occupancy rate. How do you think that you can still increase this occupancy rate maybe in the next month, so H2 2022 or 2023? And my third question, maybe a follow-up question on disposals. So we understand that you are already working on further disposals. So could you please maybe give us any color on the change of the appetite of potential buyers?

Okay. Thank you, Florent. So on the Montesson project, as you said, the construction work will not start before end of next year. So it means that we have time to adapt to some of the new cost reality, but we will do these projects. And on the occupancy rate, as you've seen in the presentation, the leasing momentum is still very strong. In June, we had a record level of agreement from tenants. So we are very confident there will be some stores we will get opening on the second semester and next year. So we are confident on this ability to maintain this occupancy rate and to increase it. And concerning the disposal, while it's difficult to give you some more color, but I can ensure you that we are confident on our ability to sell our assets in line with appraisal value. But there is no reason for us to sell us below. So we are very confident on it. And I think that our first step in the rotation program show that we are able to do it.

The next question comes from Pieter Runneboom from Kempen.

I actually got one question. I see your net debt to EBITDA moved down towards 8x. Could you maybe give some additional color on what you see as optimal net debt to EBITDA in the current environment?

Okay. So net debt over EBITDA has improved, as you say, to 8x, which is good news. I mean it's an important ratio, particularly looking at Standard & Poor's rating. The threshold to maintain the BBB for Standard & Poor's is at 11x. So we have high room to maneuver. And if you look at the threshold to be upgraded to BBB+, it's at 8, 9x. So we are even better than the threshold for BBB. We consider it a good ratio, and we are comfortable with the 8x at the time being.

There are no further questions on the call, I will hand back to your host.

So if we have no further questions, that's it for today. Thank you very much, everyone, for attending today's presentation. Hopefully, some of you will have a chance to get away on a summer break, and we look forward to catching up with you all in the next few months. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.