Carvana Co. (CVNA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 11, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Rajat Gupta
analystGreat. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. Thanks a lot for joining the webcast. My name is Rajat Gupta. I'm a member of the U.S. automotive equity research team at JPMorgan. Very pleased to have with us Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer of Carvana. In terms of the format of today's discussion, we will dive right into Q&A. If you do have a question for management, please feel free to post it on the online conference portal, and I'll be happy to ask it on your behalf. Or you could also e-mail the question to me or my team, and we'll make sure to get that through. With that, thank you, Mark, and thanks for joining us today.
Michael Levin
executiveJust before we jump in, I also have around kind of statements here. So just today's discussion may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Forward-looking statements and risks in this presentation are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new developments or otherwise. Now I'll turn it back over to Mark. Thank you, guys.
Mark Jenkins
executiveThanks, Mike, and thanks, Raj, for having us today. Very excited to talk to you.
Rajat Gupta
analystGreat. Thanks. So maybe let's just get right into it. I wasn't expecting to ask this question, but since the news hit the headlines around the North Carolina DMV in the suspension -- in the Raleigh region. Just curious to know, any update you could provide in up front, like what exactly happened. What's going on? Like is it just restricted to certain ZIP codes? Is it the whole state? Can you buy cars from consumers? Just if you could give us a quick rundown, just start would be helpful.
Mark Jenkins
executiveYes, sure. So the brief summary there is following COVID, I think there are a number of things that led to title and registration getting backed up. And I think since some of the delays associated with COVID, we've continued to be somewhat backed up in title and registration, and that's impacted the customer experience on title and registration in certain instances. In this particular case, I think we had quite a small fraction of customers that were impacted by title and registration delays, but it did happen in the state of North Carolina. And so I think the DMV there thought that with having a set of customers experienced title and registration delays that they wanted to do something to reflect the fact that they didn't like customers in that state experiencing these delays. So what they did was they asked us to stop delivering cars from the vending machine in Raleigh. We can still deliver cars in the metro area of Raleigh, just not from the specific vending machine location. And we can also still do work in the vending team, but we just can't deliver cars from that particular location. And so that's what they elected to do. Based on our research, that's a relatively sort of unusual approach for something like this and having a set of customers have title and registration delays, but that's where we are today. And yes, we announced it, and that's the background.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. And are you comfortable that this is a very North Carolina specific issue and not something you might need to investigate in like other states, just to make sure it's covered? Or just curious like has this led you to like maybe like just check what's happening and make sure that this is not more of a widespread issue?
Mark Jenkins
executiveSure. Well, I would make 2 points on that. One, our understanding is that this is quite unprecedented. But having said that, our goal is to provide the best customer experiences possible and make sure that we're -- our processes are dialed and we're doing...
Rajat Gupta
analystI think Mark is cutting off a bit here. Mike, did you want to jump in?
Michael Levin
executiveYes. Just I think that there is always a lot of room for us to improve, and the #1 focus here is on customer experience, and we work with DMVs in every single state around the country to achieve that goal. And I think this, based on the pandemic, what was an area where we saw delays. And this was a relatively unusual action, but is also pretty small in scope, relatively speaking.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. And you can source cars -- you can still source cars in North Carolina? Or is that just restricted to selling cars from those vending machines basically?
Michael Levin
executiveYes. The only restriction is just basically operating out of this single vending machine location. That's what I said.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Great. I'm not sure if Mark is back on here, but I just wanted to start off with a capacity question, based on the questions I had prepared. You have this 1.25 million capacity target by the end of 2022. Can you talk about just the utilization curve of these newer IRCs, including the ones you've opened this year already? Are you able to add the shifts more quickly than you have done in the previous IRCs? Maybe you can tie in the efforts around like labor hiring, technician hiring, because it just seems like going from 2 IRCs in 1 year, to like 8 in another year, is just like a big ramp. So how are you managing that process? Like you start hiring today already? And just curious for an update there.
Michael Levin
executiveYes, sure. So maybe one place to start, we opened 4 last year despite the onset of the pandemic. And that's something where our playbook around ramping up those inspection centers and hiring and training people within those has been getting better and better over time. I think our experience with also the design of the inspection centers themselves has also been improving, basically tweaking and refining our sort of McDonald's kitchen and vehicle reconditioning, where I think our latest layouts are probably much more efficient than our earliest inspection center iterations. And we are always trying to see how fast we can move in terms of speeding up the time lines to hire and train for any shift or line and ramp that up. But I think the truth is that, that is at the longer lead time end of the business and does take some time to kind of process. But I think there's maybe a few things to kind of hit on. So one is, we're not fully ramped up in our existing inspection centers out of the 13 that we have today that has kind of total facility capacity when fully ramped to do 750,000 cars per year. In each of those, you get to full capacity by running 2 shifts on each line in the center. And within each, we're currently hiring and training for additional shifts. So we kind of have this building waterfall of additional production coming online. And then as we open a new inspection center, you're probably launching with a shift or 2 on a single line and then moving on and hiring and training for the next one as you ramp up and dial in quality. I think we've also been, frankly, evolving our career pathing and hiring and recruiting practices there to make sure that we are delivering the best employee experience for everyone coming into those inspection centers and also structuring that workforce to break down to smaller skill sets, so people can be more productive more quickly. And then as they get certified in additional skills, tie that to pay and building a real career path for them as well as also sourcing higher skilled talent to fill into our system and pipeline. I'm having trouble hearing you. Can you guys hear me?
Rajat Gupta
analystSorry, can you hear me now?
Michael Levin
executiveYes.
Rajat Gupta
analystSorry, sorry. My bad. So the GPU has been a big topic of conversation with investors since your earnings, particularly with the second quarter's strength, what's going to happen in the third quarter? Shift reported yesterday, and they saw a $1,200 sequential increase in their second quarter GPU. And you're guiding to like a $1,300 decline in the third quarter quarter-over-quarter. And they're guiding investors to look at 2Q and 3Q average as like a more normalized number. So for you, out of the $800 sequential increase that you saw, $200 was the nonrepeat, most of it. There's $600 more that is likely a function of pricing and sourcing for what you had mentioned. Any way to dissect how much was pricing versus sourcing? Consumers really saw this as a favorable environment to sell their cars, and they're making money on a sale. But within those sourced cars and then opting and sourcing, did the pricing environment also play a role in terms of like helping with that sourcing and maybe also helping with the price you're getting for the car? Just if you could unpack that us -- unpack that a little bit for us would be really helpful.
Michael Levin
executiveYes, sure. So maybe I'll start at the more concrete end of the spectrum, which I think was maybe the smaller item here. We've noted about $200 in transport expenses related to elevated COVID cases in Q4 and Q1. And then so we expected the majority of those costs to abate in the second quarter, and then majority of those costs did roll off. And then I think the largest contributing factor to be sequential benefit in GPU was from sourcing more cars to customers, which was a record within the quarter. And then I think that part is clear. And then after that, I think there's a couple of factors that are all kind of related to each other in terms of the pricing environment and the way in which we were optimizing our mix and pricing given our constraints within the quarter as well as just the fact that wholesale is a less attractive channel given the fast rise in pricing there, which was an offset, to a certain degree versus customer source cars. I think that as prices normalize here, the exact glide path is probably a little difficult to call. If that is something where we'd expect that to be a factor in that normalization. Usually in Q3 and Q4, you do see normal seasonality coming into play. We've kind of tried to wrap all that together in our outlook for the full year where we expect greater than 4,000 in total GPU and close to EBITDA margin breakeven for the full year. So I think we saw a lot of fundamental gains there, and the clearly largest factor was benefits from buying cars to customers. And then, as we move forward, there'll be some pace of normalization and seasonality here. But also, frankly, as we get our operations to a better place and alleviate some of the constraints that we've been seeing, we'll probably also look to be normalizing our price and mix optimizations, more like we have in the past. and be able to take advantage of that and repeat the kind of growth wheel.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Got it. That's helpful color. The other thing, this is more maybe like a 2022 question, but -- and just following up on like the IRC question that we talked about earlier. Going from 2 IRCs to 8 IRCs, it seems like it's going to add a decent amount of overhead cost and like ramp-up related costs, which would flow through GPU, but at the same time, you're also improving the utilization of your existing IRCs and the prior IRCs. So how should we think about that mix and the net impact of that? Do you think investors should be a little cautious or should be anticipating any net impact because of that steep ramp? Or that is not really like a concern and you should be able to manage your GPU levels despite this huge ramp coming up?
Michael Levin
executiveYes. So I think that one thing is we've been adding IRCs for a while here. And any time that we're adding that extra overhead without high absorption or early mid slide, if that is going to be factoring into retail GPU. The other thing to keep in mind here is just that the overhead at these facilities just is not that high. So the magnitude of impact that we're talking about here is just not particularly large. So as we're bringing on additional facilities as well as ramping up our existing ones, those factors will be certainly playing out in our retail cost of goods sold, but I wouldn't point to that as being a particularly large driver. But I haven't laid out any specific expectations around how to think about 2022. And I think Mark might be trying to get back in. If you guys can watch out for him and let him in.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Is Mark in? Or just trying to make sure. Or should you want me to go on?
Michael Levin
executiveYes, go on. Just trying to look at...
Rajat Gupta
analystOkay. Great. I'm getting a question in from one of the investors on the point that you mentioned, Mike, on like the price mix optimization, which was somewhat of a function of the inventory constraint and the environment. And like some of the checks we have been doing show that you haven't needed to be competitive on price in this environment. Like all the other retailer like CarMax room, like franchise dealers, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of like price discounting going on. So when you mentioned about the price optimization, did you try to suggest that once you're back to a more normal supply environment you would revert back to some of that discounting that you had? Or did I not interpret that correctly? I just want to make sure.
Michael Levin
executiveYes, sure. So a couple of things. One, I think we've always said that we have not been optimizing our pricing for real-time cash flows, i.e., if you were optimizing just on the basis of elasticities, we would have been raising prices in real time historically. But both because we see incremental value to additional purchasers, leading to repeats and referrals and were to map out and building the brand and having more people experience the great customer experience we're delivering, see incremental value beyond that real-time transaction for additional customers. And then in this period where we were constrained, we did optimize a little bit differently than we historically have, but still believe that we offered the best value to our customers within the quarter. And then as we move forward and our constraints and operational chains in a better place, we'll probably be looking to make that optimization more like we have in the past.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Great. And just to close out the discussion on the GPU. On the other GPU, very strong results the last couple of quarters. Finance, in particular, ahead -- well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. On finance, can you talk a little bit about the sustainability of these levels as ASPs or maybe the spreads and customer delinquencies start to come back to more normal levels. But as an offset, you've always talked about these new products or new ancillary products that are coming up and then penetration within those ancillary products. So just looking at it from an overall perspective, like the overall other GPU line item, do those 2 balance out each other in a more normal environment? As ASPs and spreads moderate, whereas like you get more penetration on the ancillary stuff, is that going to be enough of a driver to offset more normalization on the finance side?
Mark Jenkins
executiveI think I can take that one. I think we've overcome our technical difficulties. I can jump back in. Thanks, Mike, for taking the reins there. So on other GPU, I definitely think there are multiple things going on. So first, let me talk about what we saw in Q2, and then I can go on talk a little bit about the long-term opportunities, which we think are significant. So in Q2, we certainly feel like we saw a tailwind in Q2 from the higher overall used vehicle prices. And the way that impacts other GPU is higher used vehicle prices leads to -- typically leads to higher loan sizes for customers who finance, and then that increases finance, GPU other things within that other GPU component. And so I do think we saw...
Michael Levin
executiveYes. I think saw a benefit in that quarter. But then as ASPs normalize at some rate, we'd expect that to be rolling off and kind of moving accordingly.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. I guess we'll ask Mark again. But I'll just continue here. Just wanted to dive into just customer experience a little bit and some of the changes that you've been seeing across the industry. Clearly, you've set a benchmark across the industry in terms of the ease at which the consumer can buy or sell a vehicle. And then some of the recent acquisitions in the space, where DMS providers are combining with some of these online platforms like Gubagoo and Roadster, what's your take on that? And then looks like some public franchisers are also moving aggressively into online offerings, Lithia with driveway, Group 1, with AcceleRide. Penske's collaboration with Cox, Asbury with Clicklane. So just where -- how do you try to continue to maintain that edge versus these new and upcomers? And what kind of investments have you been making in order to continue to do that?
Mark Jenkins
executiveSure. So I think that there's clearly been a lot of development within the industry and a lot of people kind of moving in our direction. I think what ultimately matters here is just what is the quality of the customer experience that you are able to deliver and how differentiated is that versus others once the incremental variable revenues that you have access to, and how is your variable cost structure compare. Across all those points, we've designed a very different model cost structure by vertically integrating across the supply chain, and that clearly delivers best-in-class customer experience in the industry, as you can see, through our NPS scores as well as excellent unit economics and also just greater scalability than we've historically seen. I think all of that also just feeds back on itself. As we get bigger, we generally are getting better, and it improves the experience for other customers throughout the system, we've been making all sorts of investments across our tech product platform and trying to continually increase the speed with which we're innovating and staying ahead. But I think others will absolutely be continuing to move in our direction, and we just need to be running faster and making sure that we are pressing those advantages along those points of differentiation that I just mentioned.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. That's helpful. I'm getting a couple more questions from the audience. So one of them is asking, given the vast size of the market, we would suggest Carvana is only just nibbling on innovator or the early adopters. Is this how the team sees the scenario? And what has to be true for Carvana to open up the next segments of the marketplace? And where are you investing to meet the needs of these subsequent types of adopters?
Mark Jenkins
executiveSure. So I can take that one. I definitely think we agree with the idea that we're in the very early days in terms of our growth trajectory and the opportunity to take our version of online car buying to more and more customers. I think some of the key things that we see as drivers, as we look forward, we want to have the best selection. We are constantly working to expand selection for our customers that come to the website to buy a car with us. We want to have the best experience, which means the fastest delivery times, the most seamless transaction experience available when purchasing a car. We want to have the best value and continue to provide transparency and provide great value to our customers. And in doing all that, we also want to continue to build our brand and make sure that all of the customers out there know about all the things that Carvana has to offer. And so we think that those levers of providing the best selection in the most convenient manner with the best value and making sure we're building a brand that allows everyone to know about that offering provides a very long runway to continue to expand to new customers over the coming many years.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. That's helpful color. Another question coming in. Earlier you mentioned in the past some of the constraints across the business. Curious if you can dive a bit deeper here on the production constraints and share with us the specifics of those constraints? And what are you doing to address them? How are you able to increase your weekly hiring class by 20% in July in a way difficult labor environment? What types of incentives are you providing? And how should we think about the durability of these expenses? How much is transitory relative to the environment versus what you would expect at this stage of growth?
Mark Jenkins
executiveSure. So we're very focused on expanding production capacity. We think it's one of the key drivers of the model and one of the key governors of our growth going forward. And so there's 2 phases to expanding production capacity. The first is expanding our infrastructure capacity, which means adding new inspection and reconditioning centers. We've had a lot of success with that over the years, and they expect to open 8 inspection and reconditioning centers in 2022, which will be our largest year ever. And we feel like we're on a very good path to do that. And then we'll be looking to expand beyond that as we march towards our goal of selling more than 2 million units per year. The second phase of ramping production is it is about staffing up the existing inspection centers with multiple lines of production. And so each of these centers, you can think of them as basically being 4 production lines wide and then each production line runs 2 shifts. So you have 8 shifts of staffing. And we're placing a lot of focus on recruiting and retaining team members in our inspection centers. We have a number of initiatives ongoing within the company, focused on career pathing to allow employees start at the simplest levels within the inspection center, but then learn new skills and actually build a career within the inspection centers working their way up to more and more skilled positions. We also have a number of initiatives around accelerating the pace of ramping up within these inspection centers, and that includes, for example, making sure that we have the process and capabilities to be able to ramp 2 production lines in a single center simultaneously. Whereas in past years, we typically ramped one production line within a facility at a time. So -- and there are a number of other things, but those are -- a couple of examples of the types of things that we're focused on to make sure that once we have built the facilities, we are ramping them up as quickly and effectively as possible.
Rajat Gupta
analystWe have like a couple more minutes left, but I have like several other questions coming in the queue. Just on the SG&A, clearly, for a growth company like yours, you're investing well ahead of growth. Could you help like visualize for us some of these investments that are happening be it related to allowing you to source better? Do your wholesale transactions much more better? Just add more back-end technology? Could you just give us a little more flavor of what exactly is the investment going into? And how much of that can we say is like more fixed versus variable in nature as well?
Mark Jenkins
executiveSure. Yes. So there are several types of investment that we're undertaking. I would say the first is just laying the infrastructure groundwork for growth in the near term. So for example, we're already looking forward to 2022. And indeed, in Q2, we were already looking forward toward 2022 and making sure that we're making the necessary investments to be able to achieve our goals on selling as many cars as we'd like to sell. And that requires -- these scale that requires significant upfront investment. You can't just turn it out overnight. You really do have to plan ahead when you're growing at these rates at the scale. And so one component, a large component of investment is it's just laying the infrastructure before you need it for future growth. A second form of investment, and the one that is, I think, probably closer to the question that you were asking is we are investing in many different aspects of the business to improve the customer offering, generate incremental sources of revenue in GPU, buying cars from customers is a tremendous success story on that front. And then we're also making investments in every aspect of the business. We've pointed before to that idea, we have 70-plus independent technology teams that are working on various aspects of the business. We continue to add to those teams and come up with new ones to drive additional opportunities in the business. And so I think the -- STC is a great example, but certainly, we're always thinking ahead and always looking for [indiscernible] opportunities to improve the customer experience, improve long-term unit economics, drive further growth. And those are the...
Rajat Gupta
analystMaybe, Mike, do you want to end the train of thought there? I think you'll have to...
Michael Levin
executiveThose are the base points. I think that was pretty much the end.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Got it. Maybe if I can just squeeze in one more. On advertising, getting a question in here, in terms of the leverage there. We know -- with inventory likely to come back in the future quarters. Does your advertising expense per unit move higher versus the second quarter level? And then another question is more around like just leveraging expenses in some of your older cohorts. Like is there any data or any surveys that you have done where some of those consumers and those cohorts are maybe like directly visiting carvana.com versus maybe starting their search on Google or like the Cars.com or like a remarketing website? I think we can end that then.
Michael Levin
executiveSure. Big quick ending question. I'll try and do fast. So I think have talked about the significant majority of our traffic is kind of organic or branded. It feels like building the brand as well as just the selection and overall experience at Carvana is going to be a massive long-term advantage and something that has been underutilized as a powerful tool within automotive retail historically. I think when you're looking at our ad spend, probably just a couple of things to keep in mind. One, the corporate level has been very slowly kind of levering over the last couple of years. Some of that is driven by our investments in advertising buying cars from customers, which kind of started in 2019, where that ad channel is sourcing additional cars for the business, which benefits GPU and the wholesale side, but -- Is it showing up on a per retail unit basis. So I think some of that leverage is masked to a degree. Additionally, I think our ad budget is kind of more fixed than not, given the lead time in consideration of this purchase. So that's one where we will tend to keep a steadier hand on that budget, and maybe only adjust certain smaller local channels to the extent that you face constraints. And more easily better served by addressing those constraints, and then getting to the other side and we usually make it farther along than kind of chirping wheel up and down on our advertising budget. So a lot of times, that kind of steady investments in building the brand when you face constraints. And that leads to fewer unit sales in a given period. It shows up as a bit less leverage. But feel like given the low level of awareness that we still currently have and how early we are in terms of market share, I feel like that's a very important asset that we're kind of building towards. And already at least half, if not a little bit lower than that, the level that we see at the corporate level. So feel good about the ability to continue to lever down over time towards our long-term model.
Rajat Gupta
analystGot it. Great. I think we're running out of time here. Thanks so much, Mike. Please convey my thanks to Mark as well, and thanks for joining us today.
Michael Levin
executiveAbsolutely. Thanks.
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