Catena AB (publ) (CATE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the conference call. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead.

Hi, and welcome to this -- everyone to this Q4 report. We will show you the agenda here. Here is the agenda for today, summary, a business overview and an updated followed by sustainability, finance and a short takeaway before ending up with a Q&A. So a summary of the year-end 2025 report, where we report 21% increase in rental income ended up at SEK 2.651 billion, driven mostly by acquisitions, but also by our CPI-linked contracts. Profit from property management increased by 28% in total and per share, it was up 18%. Our NRV came in close to SEK 446 and the balance sheet remains very solid with an LTV at 39%. We announced yesterday a huge acquisition, which we will come back to later on. But with that said, we will have a stronghold on the Nordic logistics property market. Next slide, and a business overview. We have seen more activity in the transaction market in Q4, and we have obviously been involved in one of the largest deals. What we hear from brokers is that the activity will continue during 2026. Swedish e-commerce has reached a new peak. This is shown by PostNord's E-barometer for the full year 2025 with growth of 10% compared with previous year. Total e-commerce sales reached SEK 153 billion. This is the highest level ever recorded, surpassing the previous peaks during the pandemic. Further, the Swedish e-commerce parcels increased by 12.9% or by 26.1 million parcels in 2025. During the full year 2025, 228 million e-commerce parcels were sent to the private individuals in Sweden. These 2 data points are very promising and should be a good driver for the logistics segment. Regarding new projects, the story is pretty much the same as in the last quarters. We are involved in dialogues with customers as we speak, but it takes time, and we have a quite conservative view of signing new projects in the coming 6 months. Regarding our customer portfolio, there has not been any major changes in Q4, and it's the same with the segment table on the right-hand side. Next slide. The total value of the portfolio is now nearly SEK 44.5 billion. It's worth noting that in the report and also here in the presentation, we break down the value not only by region, but also in investment properties, projects, building rights and land values. And the average lettable square meter has now a value of SEK 12,833. Next slide, please, the business update. Here, so yesterday evening, we press released a record big transaction containing 20 properties in Sweden, Finland and Denmark. We are super excited about this and think that the portfolio fits in perfectly to our existing portfolios in Sweden and Denmark. And at the same time, we can enter a third and a new market. We see great opportunities to establish the business in Finland and start a growth journey as we have done in Denmark the last years. The portfolio consists of top modern, newly built buildings with high EPC and ambitious certifications. The customers are well reputed, and we will add some new names in our customer list. We will also add about 70,000 square meters of building rights. Closing is expected to be at the 1st of April and fully let, we expect an NOI of SEK 483 million on a running 12 months. And the letting ratio is 96.5%, and we do have rental guarantees for 1 year for the vacant facilities. Net initial yield on cash, excluding the building right, is around 5.6%. Next slide, please. And the final phase at Logistics Position Ramlosa, ICA Fastigheter has now signed an 8-year lease with Catena for the final building, which is yet to be constructed at Ramlosa. The new build encompasses 18,042 square meters and the building in question is being to be certified according to BREEAM Excellent and Sweden Green Building Council Zero CO2 standards. Construction is planned for completion in late '26 or early '27, at which point ICA will take occupation. ICA is also moving into one of the existing facilities in Ramlosa where a separate 8-year lease with Catena is in place. The company plans to move into this 16,753 square meter facility in the summer '26 after refrigeration areas and other features have been installed. And total investment for the entire Ramlosa project is estimated to SEK 1.4 billion, and we estimate an NOI of around SEK 98 million all -- once all the facilities are leased. Next slide. Our ongoing project portfolio totals to around SEK 1.2 billion, where SEK 272 million is remaining investments. When all is completed, we will add around 91,000 square meters to the portfolio and yield on cost in those projects is around 7%. Next slide. Some updated information around the land bank and E-City Engelholm appeal by 15 different players is an ongoing case in the Environment Court of Law, and we expect that there will be some kind of decision in the summer '26. And in Orebro, the municipality is about to decide on the zoning plan once again during spring '26. Next slide, please. Some leasing update. Our net leasing in terms of moving in and moving out came in for the full year at plus SEK 72 million for the full '25. And for the fourth quarter, it was plus SEK 2 million. Our WALE is now 6.4 years and the letting ratio is at 96.7%. And next slide, please, and some sustainability. The environmentally certified area is now at 73%, and we have as goal to reach 100%. The Scope 3 is now decreasing on a 12-month rolling basis due to less projects. We continue to maintain a high level of EU taxonomy alignment. For example, our turnover came in at 77%, and we have once again been certified as a Great Place to Work. Total installed solar panels output on our roofs is now above 75 megawatts. And now over to Magnus for some financial update and next slide.

Thank you, Jorgen. Next slide, please. I will start off by highlighting that after the end of the quarter, on January 20, we carried out a directed share issue that contributed with SEK 2.8 billion in new equity. The proceeds will be used for funding of the acquisition that we signed yesterday in combination with a 12 plus 6 months term loan bridge facility provided by banks within our existing bank group. Next slide and our income and earnings. This slide highlights the continued strength in our underlying earnings with solid year-on-year growth across all key metrics. Rental income is up 21%, mainly driven by acquisition. Net operating surplus increased by 23% and profit from property management rose by 28%, reflecting both scalability and cost control. Earnings per share from property management grew by 18% to SEK 26.72, underlining our ability to translate top line growth into shareholder value. The Catena model continues to deliver predictable, resilient earnings with operational leverage. Next slide, please. This slide breaks down the key drivers behind our rental income growth for 2025. As just mentioned, the total rental income increased by 21% year-over-year. The largest contributor was acquisitions accounting for 14.8 percentage points of the growth. Our completed development projects added 3.8 percentage points, consisting mainly of new facilities in Jonkoping and the Gothenburg region, all leased to well-known tenants in retail and foodservice. Like-for-like rental income rose by 4 percentage points, built up by CPI-linked indexation, renegotiated rental agreements as well as increased property tax assessments and media costs, which are reinvoiced to our tenants. All in all, this underlines our ability to grow through multiple channels, strategic acquisitions, value-adding development and strong day-to-day operation. Next slide, please. Let's turn to our capital structure. Over the course of the year, we've seen a pickup in real estate transactions and the increased activity in credit markets, a momentum that has continued during Q4. That said, there are still global long-term structural uncertainties in place, and it's important that we keep being prepared in case of renewed volatility. At the end of 2025, our equity ratio stood at 51%, a balanced level that supports strategic flexibility. EPRA NRV per share increased to SEK 446, excluding dividends, an increase of 4.9% compared to a year ago. This shows our ability to create shareholder value over time even as shareholder returns are being realized. Passing on to next slide. Let's move on to our financial position. We continue to demonstrate strong financial control with all key metrics within policy levels. In October, the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Catena's investment-grade rating BBB with a stable outlook in its annual credit rating update. Earlier today, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the BBB rating following the announcement of the transaction yesterday. Net debt-to-EBITDA came in at 7.8x, interest coverage at 3.9x and loan-to-value at 39%. These figures reflect both a solid capital structure and strong underlying cash flows that contributes to giving us headroom to our financial covenants as well as the ability to act on new investments when the opportunities arise. Next slide, please. Moving on to debt and liquidity management. We remain focused on maintaining and securing funding on competitive terms. During the quarter, we have refinanced SEK 617 million and DKK 361 million, and we continue to see a strong appetite from banks and the capital market in regards to financing of new investments and acquisitions as well as upcoming refinancings. As mentioned earlier, in connection with the announced acquisition, we signed a 12 plus 6 months term loan bridge facility that in combination with the proceeds from the directed equity raise will be used for the short-term funding of the acquisition. Our average debt maturity remains solid at 4.5 years. Liquidity is strong with SEK 3.2 billion in available liquidity and a liquidity ratio above 1. Next slide, please. Let's move on to our interest rate management. In the start of 2026, there has been a slight shift in the view that the Swedish Riksbank has reached the end of its rate cutting cycle and a potential rate cutting during '26 is not ruled out by the market. As of the balance date, 61% of the outstanding debt carried fixed interest and our current average interest cost at 3.2% reflects a stable level with some room for improvement. Next slide, and back to Jorgen.

Thank you, Magnus. Our capital deployment is for the period divided into acquisitions, SEK 1.840 billion, and development, SEK 1.147 billion. And we have, at the same time, divested properties for SEK 98 million. And next slide please. Property valuations. The values stayed stable and ended up the period with a positive value change of SEK 485 million, which correlates to 1.1% of the total portfolio before adjustments. The average weighted valuation yield, the so-called exit yield for the portfolio is at 5.9% by the end of the period. The EPRA net initial yield came in to 5.6%. Next slide, please. So some takeaways from today. For the first, Catena closes 2025 with very solid numbers and increased earnings. The earnings per share is up 18%, as we said before, very impressive, and we are very satisfied with that. And second and absolutely the most important, Catena will continue to grow during 2026, and that goes without saying regarding yesterday's transaction. And with that said, we will open up for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Oscar Lindquist from ABG Sundal Collier.

So a couple of questions from me. Firstly, on the earnings capacity. Could you sort of give some color on what's driving the sort of 1.1 percentage point deterioration in the NOI margin?

Yes. Oscar, there are 2 things. We have now we see for the next 12 months based on where the Danish currency rate is that we will have some lower income from that part. And it's also fair to assume we see some vacancies kicking in during the year. That's the explanation.

Okay. And is that reflected in the top line then as well?

That's reflected in the top line, and the NOI margin, that's also what we have seen in the second half of '25 that we have had some higher property tax, which will be reinvoiced, of course, but that will decrease the NOI margin a bit.

Okay. Perfect. Then on the acquisitions -- on the acquisition you completed yesterday, you mentioned you have 1 year rental guarantees. Is that correct?

Correct.

And can you walk us through the financing of this portfolio? What do you expect in terms of funding costs?

We expect -- as I said, we have a bridge financing in place that we will take out on the longer market during the year, and we expect to land around our current average of cost of debt.

Okay. And then just could you give a guidance on the NOI margin of the portfolio you acquired?

Yes. So we said that there, if you exclude the value of the building rights, we said that we have -- oh, the NOI margin, sorry, sorry, sorry. We can say it's much higher than we have in our existing portfolio.

Okay. And then just a couple of small questions. Could you -- the sort of project you acquired in Koge, Denmark, do you have any guidance on timing of -- in contribution from that acquisition?

It will -- there be a sort of closing and completion of the project in Q1, we expect. We have ongoing dialogues for potential customers, but it's too early to say when we have a lease agreement in place.

Okay, And then on San Sac, when do you expect that to be completed?

In a period of 1 month. So in Q1.

The next question comes from Keivan Shirvanpour from SEB.

I have a couple of questions. And the first is related to the acquisition. Could you maybe give some type of indication of how central administration costs will be affected by this?

Yes, Keivan, relevant question. We do see just smaller increases in that. Of course, we will now hire a Finnish organization, the same setup as we have in Denmark, so 1 or 2 guys. So it's really on the margin. The Swedish portfolio and the Danish asset, that will -- we will swallow it into our existing organization. Perhaps we need one more property manager. That's it.

Okay. And then also on Finland, you say that this is a market that you want to grow in. Could you maybe give some type of like an indication of how large do you want the portfolio in Finland to be as a share of total?

Well, we don't have any exact numbers, but we do see there is a meaning to increase more than the SEK 2 billion we now have in this acquisition. And as we said before, we have done a growth journey in Denmark. We expect to do that in Finland as well. Whether it will be some more billion during the coming years, it depends a lot on what kind of opportunity there will be on the table, so to say. But we expect to grow more in Finland versus Sweden, all else equal, but you never know.

Okay. And then I just have a final question, and that is related to the investment capacity going forward because you mentioned in connection with the share issue that you see that your balance sheet enables investment capacity of about SEK 2.5 billion to SEK 3 billion. And my question is, what is the constraining factor to that volume given that -- assuming that your LTV will be somewhere in the mid-40s? I would assume that you could potentially have higher investment or room for investments than what you specified there.

Well, it depends on what kind of opportunities and what kind of -- what is the environment at that time and so on. We -- Catena is not known as to take too much risk. And well, if there is a good opportunity, we can, from time to time, be a bit above our financial policy, but not in the long run, and we rather stay below 50 than above 50. So yes, we have to consider what kind of opportunities there are. But with that said, we have dry firepower, and we can do more business.

Okay. And just a final question, that's a follow-up question on the NII margin. When you say that it has a considerably higher margin than the current portfolio, could you give some type of indication maybe of how much higher? Is it like close to 90%? Or is it 85%? Or is there any type of...

You can assume that it's around the 90%.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Emil Ekholm from Pareto Securities.

First off, congrats on the acquisition. It looks very good. A few questions from me, mainly on the transaction. Where in the acquired portfolio can we find the vacancies that you have?

That's in Sweden, that's in Malardalen.

Okay. And are there a lot of properties that are single tenant? Or are there that are like more -- or how many of the properties are single tenant?

I cannot add on the top of my head, but there are quite many that are single tenants, but there are also some multi-tenants.

Okay. And you said that you want to grow more in Finland. Can you just give some color on the yields and yield gap compared to Sweden and Denmark that you can find there, not necessarily in this portfolio, but more on a general level?

Generally speaking, the yields are a bit higher in Finland, but we do see and when we talk to a lot of brokers and other players within Finland that the interest for investing in Finland has risen a lot the last year. And there is -- there are competitors. And so especially in the logistics, the yields have been trending down. But for sure, they are higher than in Sweden and Denmark, as we speak. But I wouldn't say that they're like 50 to 100 bps higher, but higher, yes.

Okay, that's clear. And you also say that the properties are modern and newly built. Do you have like an average age of the portfolio?

Yes, except one building, they are built the last 3 years.

Okay. That's good. And then lastly, just sanity check more or less. But in the earnings capacity, you -- is it correct to assume that you have included a new number of shares, but not the effect from the acquisition, right?

That's right. And we're talking about it internally, should we do the new shares or not in the table. But as it's for 12 coming months, then yes, we have 66.4 million shares.

The next question comes from Kanad Mitra from Barclays.

Just a couple of questions mainly on the acquisition. Can you please elaborate where do you -- what kind of yields do you think are attractive to you given that the yield on this acquisition is in the low 5s? And again, just broadly, if you were to do an acquisition, what would be the threshold yield for such an acquisition?

Sorry, it was -- it's a quite bad line. So we can't really hear your question. Could you please repeat? Or could you send a text to us?

Just can you elaborate why do you think the acquisition yield is attractive in a low 5s kind of acquisition yield? And what would be the -- yes.

Yes. We said that the yield is -- the cash yield is 5.6%.

Okay. And what would you say about kind of what is your threshold for new acquisitions if you were to do any in terms of...

There is no magic number. That's not the way we work. I mean, it depends on what kind of customer, what kind of location, are there any building rights, what's the upside, if we can add a strong new customer to our network, perhaps we can start the dialogue and perhaps we can offer some new buildings and to increase the cooperation with a new customer on our land bank and so forth. So it's more of like how can we do our operations even better and what can we offer to the customers. And then whether it's a 5.5%, 5.6% or 5.9%, that's not really that crucial for us. It would be in the long run, a good investment for us and to strengthen our operations.

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

So thank you, everyone, for listening to this earnings call. And from Helsingborg, we wish you all a very nice weekend when it comes. Thank you, and goodbye.

Thank you.