CCL Industries Inc. (CCLB) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to CCL Industries 2025 Fourth Quarter and Year-end Investor Update. Please note that there will be a question-and-answer session after the call. The moderator for today is Mr. Geoff Martin, President and Chief Executive Officer; and joining him is Mr. Sean Washchuk, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, gentlemen.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Holly. Welcome to our fourth quarter investor call and record year-end results. I'll draw everyone's attention to Page 2 of this presentation, and remind everyone of our disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. If you'd like more information about the risks and opportunities facing our business, please have a look at our 2024 and 2025 annual reports, particularly the section risks and opportunities. Our annual and quarterly reports can be found online on the company's website, cclind.com or on sedarplus.ca. Moving to Page 3. For the fourth quarter of 2025, sales increased 3.5%, with 0.6% organic growth, 0.2% acquisition-related growth and 2.7% positive impact from foreign currency translation, resulting in sales of almost $1.9 billion compared to approximately $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Operating income was $280.7 million for the 2025 fourth quarter compared to $267.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, a 2% increase, excluding the impact of foreign currency translation. Geoff will expand on our segmented results for CCL, Avery, Checkpoint and Innovia momentarily. Corporate expenses were up for the 2025 fourth quarter compared to the prior year fourth quarter due to higher variable long-term compensation expenses. Consolidated EBITDA for the 2025 fourth quarter, excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, increased 3% to $383.6 million. Net finance expense was $17.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, lower than the $19.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. The decrease is due to higher finance income earned on the company's cash and cash equivalents. The overall effective tax rate for Q4 2025 was 28.5% compared to an effective tax rate of 22.9% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is primarily due to an increase in withholding taxes in the period, resulting in a $10.1 million increase in tax expense for the comparative quarters. The effective tax rate may change in future periods depending on the proportion of taxable income earned in different tax jurisdictions and the timing of withholding taxes. Net earnings for the 2025 fourth quarter were $171.1 million compared to $179.8 million in the 2024 fourth quarter. For the year ended December 31, 2025, sales and operating income increased 3% and 6%, excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, respectively. Net income for the 2024 year included a $78.1 million noncash revaluation gain recorded in the second quarter of 2024, resulting in a decline in 2025 net income compared to the 2024 year. Excluding this gain, adjusted net income increased 5.3%. 2025 results -- included the results of 3 acquisitions completed since January 1, 2024, delivering acquisition-related sales growth for the period of 0.7%, organic growth of 2.5% and foreign currency translation was a tailwind of 2.6% to sales. Moving to the next slide, our earnings per share. Basic and adjusted basic earnings per Class B share were $0.99 and $1.03, respectively, for the 2025 fourth quarter compared to $1.01 basic and $1.02 adjusted basic earnings per Class B share for the 2024 fourth quarter. Adjusted earnings per Class B share increased 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The $0.01 increase in adjusted basic EPS was primarily driven by improved operating income of $0.05, favorable currency translation adding $0.04 and reduced net finance costs adding $0.01. These gains were partially offset by lower joint venture equity earnings of $0.01 and higher income tax rate amounted to a $0.08. Moving to our next slide, free cash flow from operations. For the fourth quarter of 2025, free cash flow from operations was an inflow of $292.8 million compared to an inflow of $261.7 million posted for the fourth quarter of 2024. The increase is principally due to improved net working capital, partly offset by higher net CapEx for the fourth quarter 2025 compared to the prior year fourth quarter. For the year-end 2025, free cash flow from operations was a record $891.3 million, surpassing the $606.5 million posted for the 2024, a 47% increase. This change is primarily attributable to improved adjusted earnings and an improvement in working capital over the comparative periods. Moving to Slide 6, our returns to shareholders. For the year ended December 31, 2025, the company repurchased approximately 3.9 million shares for $300 million. Including the 10.3% increase in 2025, annual dividend announced in February of 2025, dividends paid year-to-date have amounted to $223.7 million for a total of $523.7 million returned to shareholders. This is the company's expectation that more money will be returned to shareholders in 2026, as indicated in our 2025 Q4 press release, where we announced a 12.5% increase in the 2026 annual dividend. And hopefully, everyone had to look at our press release this morning, where we have announced, we've modified our normal course issuer bid from a discretionary buyback to an automatic share repurchase plan going forward. We are authorized to potentially spend up to $1.2 billion over the next 12 months. Moving to the next slide, our cash and debt summary. Net debt as at December 31, 2025, was $1.26 billion, a decrease of $356.9 million compared to December 31, 2024. This decrease is principally a result of lower total debt outstanding and an increase in cash and cash equivalents. With the decrease in the company's net debt, the balance sheet closed the quarter in a strong position. Our balance sheet leverage ratio was 0.78x at December 31, 2025, down from 1.08x reported at the end of December in 2024. Liquidity was robust with almost $1 billion of cash on hand and USD 1 billion available undrawn of credit capacity in our revolving credit facility. During the fourth quarter, the company amended its syndicated revolving credit facility extending the maturity almost 4 years to November 2030. The company's overall finance rate was approximately 2.5% at December 31, 2025, just below the 2.6% at December 31, 2024. The company's balance sheet continues to be well positioned as we move into 2026. Geoff, over to you.

Thank you, Sean. Good morning, everybody. Slide 8, capital spending highlights for the year. $441 million gross, $430 million net, mainly the disposal of the building for Innovia in Belgium, and we are estimating to spend approximately $470 million in the year of 2026. Slide 9 highlights the CCL. Solid Q4 organic growth 3.6%, low single digit in North America, mid-single digit in Europe, double digit in Asia Pacific, particularly driven by CCL Design and including the Middle East, part offset by a modest decline in Latin America. Profitability gains are very strong at CCL Design, solid at Healthcare & Specialty, slightly down at Home & Personal Care and a bit more than that in Food & Beverage. CCL Secure profits halved compared to a good Q4 '24 on shipment timings. Slide 10. I won't spend much time on this, just earnings from our one remaining joint venture. Slide 11. Very good quarter at Avery. Very strong quarter for our direct-to-consumer business, especially in North America, solid overall internationally and good progress in the horticultural space. Slide 12 highlights the Checkpoint. MAS had another strong profit quarter in Europe and Asia that was weak in North America, particularly around tariff impacts from China and a slow Christmas season that many retailers reported. Apparel labeling profitability improved. That was a mixed story, somewhat RFID related, but sales were still soft on the impact of tariff on the apparel supply chain with inventory caution in abundance. Order intake improved so far in Q1 2026. Slide 13 highlights for Innovia. Sales declined on the lower resin cost pass-through and volume decline in slow consumer markets. You did see good share gain progress for EcoFloat and in-mold label films predominantly made at our plant in Poland, and we incurred about $4 million on start-up costs in the new German plant although we're hoping that picture is going to change as we go through the year in 2026. Outlook commentary. Overall, the CCL segment orders continued to be stable. Our U.S. plants were impacted by snow-related outages in January and again this week in February. Avery is expected to be stable. ALS and the RFID business is expected to strengthen at Checkpoint driven by the uptick in orders. Innovia's German plant, as I mentioned, we expect to see that improve as the year progresses. And we do have challenging comps in the first half of the year, much less challenging in the second half of the year and foreign exchange is expected to be a modest tailwind. So with that, operator, we'd like to open up the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question for today is from Hamir Patel with CIBC Capital Markets.

Geoff, you're pointing to stable orders so far. It looks like you delivered mid-single-digit organic growth in the CCL segment in '24 and '25. Do you think you can continue to deliver mid-single growth in the CCL segment this year? And how much might the weather issues that you mentioned in the U.S. be a drag on comps there in Q1?

Well, I certainly think for the year, we can expect to see growth in the low to mid-single-digit range. I think Q1 will be a little bit more challenging. Some of that driven by the weather factor. So it depends how quickly we can catch up on that with shipments. So organizing freight was the biggest problem. Our plans were actually running relatively normally, but freight shipments were difficult to get organized. But we certainly do expect to see growth in the year. I think Q1 will be one of the more difficult quarters of the year, and we expect it to ease as the year progresses.

Okay. Great. And just the last question I had for Checkpoint. What type of RFID demand change did you see over 2025? And just given the strong demand that you're pointing to for the year ahead, what level of RFID growth are you expecting in '26?

So the industry did not have a growth year last year overall. So RFID shipments were actually the total industry below 2024 levels. We grew in 2025, and we expect to grow in 2026, hopefully, in double digits. But we'll have to wait and see how things unfold as the year progresses. We have seen improvement in apparel order intake. And that's been a particular issue in the RFID space because of the abundance of caution North American retailers, in particular, took over the tariff issues.

Your next question is from Ahmed Abdullah with National Bank of Canada.

There are some high-profile private equity roll-ups that have struggled financially and some of us in the market obviously assume that, that could be a positive for you. Are you seeing any of that kind of start materializing into RFPs or essentially better discussions on the M&A front? Any commentary or thoughts around that?

I would say all private equity roll-ups are struggling financially. I wouldn't say some, it's virtually all. And then I would say that's a positive for the rest of the industry in terms of the available share you can take. I wouldn't say that we are gaining more favorably than some others are in privately owned family run companies also picking up some share. But it's for sure helping the current situation and what's a pretty tight demand market in the consumer goods space.

Okay. So has it -- have you seen any notable change in terms of M&A discussions that you've been engaging in, in terms of appetite for more reasonable valuations?

Well, I would say in the M&A space, we are seeing some signs of valuations coming back from insanity to something more normal. The private lending market is still very vibrant. The subprime lending, if you like, to these kind of enterprises that still can be problematic at times in terms of valuations that are out there, but I would describe the environment is improving rather than the reverse.

Okay. And just on the announcement this morning on the NCIB. Are there any parameters that you were thinking about when you're executing on this in terms of opportunistic on price? Or is it really trying to maintain your leverage above one and just trying to execute the full NCIB?

Well, we've got authorization to spend much more significantly. Our objective is to be in the market every day, purchasing shares regardless of the price. The price will dictate how much we purchase, and you'll have to see how that works out each quarter.

Your next question for today is from Sean Steuart with TD Cowan.

Sean, a couple of questions for you. The tax rate in Q4, you mentioned withholding taxes was a factor there. And I appreciate the effective tax rate is a function of various regional contributions. But any broad guidance on effective 2026 tax rates you're expecting in a normal contribution environment region to region?

I think for 2026, we can expect our tax rate around 25% annualized. I don't think we will experience the lumpiness of withholding taxes we had in '25 and '26. It will be a much more smooth year. So I'd estimate around 25% for the coming year.

Okay. And you -- the strong free cash flow number in Q4 partly reflected a big working cap drawdown, I guess, some of which is seasonal but it was a strong contribution. Any perspective on expected working cap changes into Q1 and through the year in 2026?

We always have the better second half than the first half. So I don't think there was anything particularly unusual in that last year. So in 2025, we did prune capital expenditures on a couple of larger projects that brought capital spending down. But I don't think there was anything particularly unusual in the working capital. It was well managed. We normally have had a cash flow from that in the second half than we do in the first half and this year will be no different.

Your next question is from Michael Glen with Raymond James.

Just to start, Geoff, when you talked about RFID being -- you characterized the industry in 2025 as somewhat muted. Would you say that, that was something related to overall economic uncertainty or uptake rates for new RFID implementation have been lower than expected?

I think it's a phenomenon around apparel. So I think there's been so much inventory -- in the apparel supply chain because of the worry about tariffs. So that's [indiscernible] on demand on the manufacturing side of the apparel supply chain. That can only happen for so long eventually, you have to have inventory. And we've certainly seen some uptick in orders in Q1. So I think that was the main cause of the industry drop in the year of 2024 -- '25 over '24.

And how would you -- is there any characterization you can provide in terms of the use case for retailers with RFID? Does the -- are the use cases and the returns still as robust for RFID?

Absolutely. I mean, I think it's becoming a ubiquitous technology in the apparel space and many other parts of the retail supply chain, looking at RFID applications. So I think once apparel is still the big gorilla in -- on the farm. So there's issues in that industry. It's bound to affect the overall industry. But I think many applications are still growing outside of the apparel. And I'm sure as the year progresses, we'll see volume growth return to something like it was historically.

Okay. And then just on Label. So you referenced the softer consumer environment in the press release, and we are seeing the muted overall volume numbers from some of your customers. So in this type of environment, are these customers, are they pushing CCL on price at all? Are they looking for anything additional from you right now? Just trying to understand that.

I think they're more focused on running their business and worrying about label supply. So I think the big question marks for most of our big CPG customers has been the alarm and change of circumstance in some of the private equity-owned businesses that are out there. So every time you have security of supply concerns, in the industry that's favorable for us because we're the safe harbor. So that's certainly, for us, offset what would otherwise have been I expect a slower environment than we've been able to enjoy. I think the other element you have to factor in, in Q4 was a very strong performance of CCL Design. So obviously, that's not consumer packaged goods related. So that certainly trumped some of the slowness we saw in parts of the CPG space.

Okay. And that was at electronics or automotive design?

Correct.

Electronics, okay.

Electronics, yes.

Your next question for today is from David McFadgen with ATB Cormark.

A couple of questions. First of all, just start out on -- just on the balance sheet. Obviously, the leverage is quite low and you're going to be more active on buying back stock. Have you ever thought about just paying out a onetime special dividend just to get the leverage up to more, I guess, reasonable level as opposed to being so low?

We've looked at that in the past and concluded in consultation with some shareholders, and buybacks is the preferred option.

Okay. So then just on Avery. I was just wondering what were the real factors there that drove the strength in the direct-to-consumer side of the business?

Well, it's a channel that's growing. So -- it was our WePrint label product offering was particularly strong. That's the labels for small businesses and consumers, that was particularly strong badges -- conference badges, things like that. So it's just a strong growth channel. And it's a low quarter for the legacy business. So you see what Avery will look like in the future once these legacy product lines eventually find their way to their final resting point, and it was a low season for that part of the business. So the mix moves to more growth categories than the ones that aren't growing so much.

Okay. So -- and just on RFID, just another question on that. You stated that you're looking for double-digit growth in 2026. Is it -- is that optimism really being driven by increased buildup in inventory at the retail side? Or are there some other factors that are driving that optimism?

I think new applications in markets outside of apparel and the normalization of inventory to sales ratio in apparel. So that ratio is certainly dipped in the last few quarters, driven by the tariff environment. And eventually, if you want to sell stuff, you have to have inventory. So at some point, people have to build, and that's what we see beginning to happen. I wouldn't say it's back to normal yet, but we were encouraged by orders improving.

Okay. And then just lastly, you obviously saw that the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's tariffs and now they're engaging in other tariffs. I mean -- what does this do to kind of the industry environment?

Well, it's not a lot different from what we went through last year. So time will tell.

Your next question is from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital Markets.

I just had a couple of follow-up questions. Just with respect to the CCL segment overall. You kind of talked about the ability to continue to generate low to mid-single-digit growth in 2026. And I was just wondering how that might flow into your margin expectations for 2026?

Well, it's always mix driven. So it depends on which businesses are growing faster than others. But we do -- we're not expecting or planning for margin expansion this year. So we'd expect it to see trading in the narrow range that it's traded historically. And quarter-to-quarter, it will be driven by mix.

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then is there any way to quantify sort of the top line impact from the freight disruptions you saw related to the snow impacts in January and February?

It's too early to tell. We don't have February's numbers yet. So we'll have those next week sometime. But we know a few -- quite a few of our plants in the Northeast were obviously hanged up shop on the day the snow came down Monday and Tuesday, and we had 2 or 3 days similarly in the month of January. So that's quite a lot compared to a normal winter. And how much impact it will have on sales, we'll have to wait and see how the quarter pans out.

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to -- I noted in the MD&A, you had some specific commentary around growth in CCL Secure based on some polymer banknote demand as well as passport components. Is that a change relative to previous years? Like is the demand environment increasing based on some of your, I guess, your visibility into your pipeline?

Yes. Well, I would say the banknote industry has had a better year last year than it's had in a while. So we had a big boom in the COVID years where there was a run on cash in central banks was like video. So in the year of 2021, we had record ever performance in the industry as a whole followed by 2 or 3 follow years when all that inventory had to be eaten up. And right now, the demand in the industry is in quite good shape. And we've had some wins in conversions from paper to polymer. So it's -- the optimism is much better than it's been for 2 or 3 years. But keep it in perspective, Steve, it's $230 million business.

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just finally, just for Sean on the 2026 components. Can you just give some indication as to where you expect corporate costs to end up for '26?

I'd expect it to be slightly higher -- few million higher than '25.

Your next question for today is from Daryl Young with Stifel.

Just with respect to the CapEx looks very stable into 2026, but I'm just wondering if there's any larger projects that are planned for 2027 and beyond? Or anything that would change your rate of free cash flow conversion because it's been exceptional.

No, I think you can expect to see that number around 5% and 6% of sales. So it may creep up to 6% if we have a lot of projects, it may drop a bit, but it's something in the range of what you've seen of late.

Okay, great. And then -- with regards to Innovia, margins, obviously took a hit from the plant start-up and maybe some noise around resin. But do you have a view on run rate margins can be in that business in the back half of '26 and onwards of sort of a run rate number for that...

No. Not really. It's a pass-through business, Daryl. So margins don't really mean anything you have to look at absolute dollars of operating income or EBITDA. So we are certainly planning for improvements this year over last year. Beyond that, I couldn't comment.

Your next question is from Arthur Nagorny with RBC.

I just want to start with RFID. In your 10-K, you outlined plans for growth beyond apparel from the Mexico facility. Can you maybe lay out how that facility has been performing over the past few quarters? And what the growth opportunities could look like for next year?

Well, it's still in start-up mode. So we're still installing equipment, that's pretty much finished at this point. And it's -- the main initiative, it's supporting currently is the Walmart general merchant base initiative. So Walmart's mandated to a number of its suppliers, not in the grocery channel aisles, but in the non-grocery channel aisles, what they call general merchandise, and we're actively involved in that. That's been it's main purpose so far, but it's working on a number of other applications. And we're certainly expecting that to grow as the year progresses.

Okay. And then on Innovia, I think you noted customer demand is being slow. Are you seeing anything in this business line that's different from your other segments apart from the resin price pressures?

We've seen some good share gain for the EcoFloat films, so the sustainability films that we have 360-degree decorated Food & Beverage containers, seeing strong growth there, strong growth in in-mold films, mainly from share gain. So those are the 2 areas of strong growth in Innovia.

All right. And then last one for me. Latin America was a bit of a soft spot this quarter in the CCL segment. Is there anything in particular that drove the decline there this quarter?

Foreign exchange. So the foreign exchange environment in Mexico and Brazil has been pretty volatile. So that sometimes has impact on imported raw materials, especially in Brazil. So the volatility of foreign exchange has been the challenge in that part of the world. So you can go the other way. So in 2024, we had the same volatility, but it works in our favor. Last year, worked against us.

[Operator Instructions] We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the call over to Geoff Martin for closing remarks.

Thank you, Holly, and thank you, everybody, for joining the call. We look forward to seeing you in May where hopefully, we'll have sunnier times. Thank you very much.

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.