CD Projekt S.A. (CDR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 4, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Kicinski, President of the Board and joint CEO. Please go ahead.
Adam Kicinski
executiveGood afternoon. Thank you for joining us today at the CD PROJEKT Strategy Update Q&A. I hope you had a chance to watch our strategic video presenting our long-term product outlook. We have also prepared a number of deep dives that will broaden our knowledge -- your, of course, your knowledge; about the important company topics. You can find them all on our corporate website at cdprojekt.com. Over the next 45 minutes, together Piotr Nielubowicz and Michal Nowakowski, we will do our best to answer any questions you may have. So let's start our Q&A session.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And the first question is from the line of Nick Dempsey with Barclays.
Nick Dempsey
analystI've got 3 questions. First of all, can you give us a sense of when we might see Polaris in very broad terms? I understand if you wouldn't want to put it on a particular month in a particular year, but in very broad sense, because you said that the 6-year period, the -- we'll see the other 2 games come along starts from Polaris. We'd love to get a sense of when Polaris might arrive. Second question, also timing really, can you just give us a sense of how project Orion might fit around the plans for the Witcher trilogy in terms of timing? So is it likely that you could launch project Orion in the middle of that 6-year period that you discussed? And then the third question, will the creation of the North American studio means the cash spending will ramp up in the next couple of years and in those years out until Polaris is launched? And could it be that the group will have negative free cash flow in some of those years because of that new expense?
Adam Kicinski
executiveI'll take the first and the second. Adam Kicinski speaking. So in terms of date, today, we decided to share our long-term outlook mostly in terms of direction. And we said that there are 2 Witcher -- that there were 3 Witcher games in our pipeline, so released in the first place. And 2 of them are already in work. That was Polaris and Sirius. And for Polaris, we are preparing technology. So this is the first project to be released on a new engine, Unreal 5 and there is a need of some extra work, making this technology feasible for huge open world story-driven game. So for this project, for sure, we need some extra effort to deliver. And as we said in our strategy, the next games in the second and the third installment should go smoother as technology will be there and the tool set and pipelines will be there. But this is all what I can say as for now. For Orion, that's the game we have not started yet. In terms of Cyberpunk franchise, we are finishing our works on Phantom Liberty. And once this game, this expansion is released, we'll start works on -- initial works on Orion, but then this is all what I can say as for now.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executivePiotr Nielubowicz here, I will take the third question. And the last is as much as I can about guiding on future results or future cash flows of the company. So in general, deploying more projects that we plan for the future will naturally increase cash spending, increase investments in developments we will be working on. And at the same time, carrying out a project in North America will be more expensive compared to doing a comparable project in Poland. But we believe it's the only way to tap into the American talent pool, which we need to deliver on our ambitious production plans.
Nick Dempsey
analystCan I have a quick follow-up on the first one? So listening to your answer there about the timing for Polaris, I mean, if the second and third games in the trilogy will appear over a 6-year period beyond Polaris, therefore, 3 years each on average, were you saying that this one takes more effort? So from a point where you are fully focused on that game we're saying it could be certainly more than 3 years because you're saying that the second and third should be faster. Is that an accurate way of reading what you said?
Adam Kicinski
executiveYes, it is.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from the line of Matthew Walker with Credit Suisse.
Matthew Walker
analystThank you for the strategy update. I guess, yes, just going back to, first of all, to Polaris. Would it be accurate to say based on your previous answer that it would be at least 3 years from now until we see Polaris come out? And then do you have a time frame for Sirius, because Sirius has been started presumably a little bit, maybe a bit earlier by the studio? And then on Hadar, can you give us a bit of a feel, obviously, you say it's still in conceptual stage. Can you give us a feel for what that really is, even if it's a really sort of vague and general feel? And then finally, in terms of employees, how do you -- how big do you think the U.S. studio is going to be? And what are the sort of -- I know you didn't really answer on the cost, but in terms of your near-term results, what are we talking about in terms of additional expenses?
Adam Kicinski
executiveAdam, again. So I'll take the first and the second. So as I said, we are not ready to guide any more about dates today, so I won't narrow the time frame. But what we said, we started preproduction this year, actually at the very beginning of this year, in Q1. So it's already in development, the first phase of development. And in terms of Sirius, we just said that there will be -- there are 2 games in production. So we are not guiding whether Sirius will be before or after. And of course, we'll say it once we are ready.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveAll right. Now this Michal Nowakowski. I'm going to respond to the third one. So when it comes to Hadar, that we're at this stage -- early stages of creative process of creating the foundation of the new setting. And that foundation is going to become -- is going to be the place where we're going to be developing a new game at some point, but we're not at this stage yet. We're not developing the game yet. And the very conceptual phase began in late 20 -- second half of 2021, and so we're in the exploration phase of creation of the setting of the new foundation for the future line of games.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executivePiotr Nielubowicz, the last question. In North America, studio consist teams working from Boston, and the team working from Vancouver, the existing team after the prior [n prior work ] in Vancouver. The team -- or the project will also be supported by developers from Poland. And as far as the total headcount required for such a production is concerned, I believe the best reference is Cyberpunk 2077, our most recent release and a good reference point when thinking about development headcount for future products of this scale. I think it's safe to assume that between 350 and 500 developers should be required to have such production in our development process. And of course, the final team size will be done on the scale of a particular project. But in this case, rather think of a significant AAA cross-continuation of Cyberpunk.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] At the moment, we do not have any questioners on the phone, and we continue with the written questions.
Adam Kicinski
executiveSo I can read the first written question from [indiscernible]. Is the tool set that prepared for Polaris and also meant to be used for project Canis Majoris already created? Or is it still being made? How long usually does it take to create such a tool set? So it's not ready yet. We've started working on this, but we signed with Epic half year ago. and we are working on it. Of course, some tools we already have because we were using them in our RED Engine, and we will implement them and prepare to work with Unreal, but some other tools have to be created. So we are in the initial phases of this process. And how long usually does it take? For the past productions, when we were preparing technology for each product, maybe not from scratch, but we were doing a lot of things in technology. It usually took the technology and the game together took 4 to 5 years. That was in the past. But this time, we are not guiding how much time we will need for this development.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executiveNext question, I'll read. Are you considering returning to the Cyberpunk online multiplayer as a stand-alone product due to a noticeable improvement in Cyberpunk sales the last couple of weeks? Will the Orion project from Cyberpunk franchise have online multiplayer features?
Adam Kicinski
executiveSo multiplayer or multiplayer elements depending on the project and the scale of those elements, depending on the project, we are referring on to the future games. And of course, in the core of our business and creations are story-driven open world role-playing games. So we are working on extending them to multi-players. And we've just said that most of projects, we announced the codename project will have multiplayer, but we are not ready to specifically say whether this or that will have it. The next question is from Casper Kopron. Are we going to propose the general meeting of shareholders -- a change to the general meeting of shareholders a change in your financial goals for 2020 to 2025 ESOP regarding strategy update.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executiveYes. We are close to wrapping up internal work on new incentive program formula, but I would say is not directly related to the strategy update we've just published today. We rather believe it should be a permanent part -- important part of the remuneration scheme that we plan for future years at the product. So stay tuned, and soon we will be able to share our concept on how it should look with you in the form of the resolution for the general meeting.
Operator
operatorWe have another question on the phone. I would like to introduce Matti Littunen from Bernstein.
Matti Littunen
analystFirst, a couple of questions on Canis Majoris. First of all, you say it's a fully fledged project. So should we take that to assume it's a AAA game, so to speak? The second is that considering the tool set is still being built, should we assume that the milestone payments or the CapEx on the project might not start until some time from now, say, over a year from now? And then the third one, I understand that you announced that there will be some DLCs to coincide with the Witcher next-gen console release thematically tied to the Netflix series? Now would these be 3 DLCs? Or would this be sort of small kind of micro transactions, for example.
Adam Kicinski
executiveI'll take the first one. Adam Kicinski. So yes, we are thinking about fully fledged AAA story-driven RPG. And today, we said almost nothing except this, but soon, really soon we will talk more about this project, so stay tuned.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] sorry, please go ahead.
Adam Kicinski
executiveYes, go ahead.
Matti Littunen
analystThe third question, yes.
Adam Kicinski
executiveAnd the second question, as soon as we move from the research phase to the development phase, we will obviously start capitalizing this project. I understood your question, correct?
Matti Littunen
analystYes. So that's correct, but there's nothing to say on the time frame when that might happen?
Adam Kicinski
executiveNo, not yet. We've not released anything for that today.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveNow the third one about the DLCs to coincide with The Witcher next-gen launch title Netflix. These are 3 DLCs. We're not planning any micro transaction within the Witcher 3 [indiscernible]. So everybody who will upgrade or purchase the new copy will get them free of charge as part of the package.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions].
Adam Kicinski
executiveSo another question from Casper Kopron. The Hadar project. When do you plan to start preproduction of this cycle? Is the game supposed to be in the RPG genre? Michal, over to you.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveSo we're not providing any specific date in terms of the start of the preproduction of the title. We're still at the phase of building that setting, and this is the part that's preoccupying the core team working on it. However, when it comes to the genre we do certain kinds of games, and I think it's safe to assume we're going to -- we want to continue to do the games within that kind of genre. So you can imagine what kind of games to expect.
Operator
operatorAnd we have a follow-up question from the line of Matthew Walker with Credit.
Matthew Walker
analystSo yes, just a couple of follow-ups, if that's okay. So is there any update on timing and pricing for the expansion pack like when in 2023 are we likely to see the expansion? And will it be priced like a normal AAA -- normal new AAA title? And the other thing is just to give us a bit of a clue. I think I've asked this before, but just to try and get a bit more feel in terms of your profitability. So basically, your EBIT for 2021 was around a couple of hundred million. In terms of the development cost for the new studio and for the new titles over the next few years, is that going to be basically go to 0 or below 0 as you ramp up expenses?
Michal Nowakowski
executiveOkay. So I can start, I guess, with the -- so when it comes to the update on timing and pricing for the expansion pack, that information is part of the marketing campaign release. So when the time for that campaign comes, when we're ready to reveal that information we'll come forward with that. So I don't really have specifics to share here. And it's kind of the same when it comes to entering when in 2023 we'll see an expansion. It's set to release next year. And again, we'll share more details as we are ready to share those details within the marketing campaign. I'm not sure I understood the last part, whether the expansion is going to be priced like a normal new AAA title or the following titles? I mean, the expansions traditionally are cheaper than the full priced games. So if you could like to specify what you meant here, unless...
Matthew Walker
analystNo, I guess that answers it because you're saying it's an expansion, it's not a full AAA pricing.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveYes. So the expansion pack is going to be an expansion. It's big, it's sizable and we're very happy with what we're offering to the gamers. But it's not a full AAA new title.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executiveAnd the second part of the question related to our future cash flows, which, as you know, we are not guiding. So therefore, I'm afraid I cannot directly answer the question.
Operator
operatorAnd the next question is from the line of Nick Dempsey with Barclays.
Nick Dempsey
analystI've got a couple more follow-ups, please. So the first one, as The Molasses Flood is clearly a pretty small team. Is it fair to say the Project Sirius will be a much smaller game than your major AAA assets that you've been describing? And the second one is just a business model of projects Canis Majoris, how is that going to work with an external partner? It is a question if you're funding it and then taking revenues by giving them some royalties or fixed payments only. Can you describe how the business model will work with an external partner?
Michal Nowakowski
executiveOkay. So when it comes to Molasses Flood, actually the team is right now more than 60 people because that project is not only in Boston, it's also -- there's also team members working on that project in Europe and in Vancouver as a matter of fact. And we also intend to keep growing that team. So it's a sizable team and it's going to be bigger by the time the project launches. So no, the project is definitely not a smaller game, and we intend to fully go behind that game when it launches. So I guess that answer when it comes to the second one, Adam wants to chime in here.
Adam Kicinski
executiveI'll just add 1 thing because we clearly say that The Molasses Flood Project Sirius is different from our past productions. So don't expect another open world story-driven RPG like Witcher 3. It's a different project targeted for a broader audience. So that's why we decided to acquire The Molasses Flood with their expertise and run this project by them.
Piotr Nielubowicz
executiveRegarding the business model of our cooperation with external partner working with us in Canis Majoris, what I can say is that the project will be based on our IP, and we will be the party financing. However, I wouldn't like to dive any deeper into details of our cooperation with our external partners.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Tomasz Rodak with DMB.
Tomasz Rodak
analystFirst question regards the Polaris project. As you said, the games will be released in a 6-year publishing cycle, which make it like basically 3 years per second and the third game. And I just want to ask if they're going to be a full AAA experience like for several dozens of gaming hours because it seems that the 3-year production cycle is rather short for a AAA project. And the other question regards the Sirius game from Molasses Flood, you said that it targets a broader group of players than your previous games. However, it seems that action games, shooter games are the most of genres and you did those. I wonder what can be more popular, unless we talk about, I don't know, my mobile game? And maybe these 2 questions for now.
Adam Kicinski
executiveI'm Adam Kicinski. I will take the first one. And I know it's a bold statement that we are going lead 3 full-fledged AAA open world story-driven RPGs in 6 years. But we really mean it because we believe we have a plan for this. We are currently working on a fully technological foundation for all our future releases and especially being -- I mean, releasing Polaris will have all tools to continue streamlined development on successive parts of the trilogy. Still, of course, we want to approach each game with a great ambition. So we are not cutting corners. I mean, there is no plan -- any plan for this. And we believe that changing our pipelines from the past ones when we were really, really very much into deep technological processes for each game to start games with almost ready technology. Of course, we'll have to add some because some technologies are always needed to create something new, but this is very different from what we've had in the past.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveI'll take the second one. Michal Nowakowski. So I can definitely say Sirius, Project Sirius is not a mobile game. And when we were talking about it, I think we actually were talking about like broader demographics, which means we want to reach to people that we were not necessarily efficiently reaching through The Witcher games that we've been making so far. So imagine people who are maybe watch the TV show but have not necessarily -- are not necessarily into playing very dark themes, hardcore RPG games. So this is more the kind of thinking behind it. And that's unfortunately as deep as I can go, but I hope this gives you a little bit more -- a better picture of what we're trying to do. And obviously, we're going to be talking much more about that project as the right time comes.
Tomasz Rodak
analystYes. Great. I would like to have 2 follow-up questions, if I may. Are some of the games mentioned in the strategy and mobile games? And last question, just to make things more clear, Orion will be developed by this North America studios? CD PROJEKT in North America that consists of Boston and Vancouver? And I understand that both of them are making like Sirius right now. Does it mean that -- I mean, Molasses Flood is making Sirius right now. Does it mean that after Molasses Flood end Sirius, it will start working on Orion?
Michal Nowakowski
executiveOkay. So I can start with the first one. So none of the games mentioned in strategy are mobile games, let's set this clear. Having said that, when it comes to mobile, we did mention that we are opening up also on that front to external corporations. And when we're ready, we'll tell you more, but that's the part we've been covering when it comes to the strategy and mobile games.
Adam Kicinski
executiveAnd I will take the second one. Adam here. So no, no, the Orion will be developed by the north -- to the PROJEKT RED North America, which will consist of already existing Vancouver and totally new team, which we are building in Boston next to The Molasses Flood. Actually, next doors, but it's totally separate from The Molasses Flood will stay focused on Sirius, and we are building another team in Boston to lead together with Vancouver to consist -- to build the PROJEKT RED North America and to lead production on Orion.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And I hand back to written questions.
Adam Kicinski
executiveAll right. So I'll read the first question from Omar from Morgan Stanley. Your plan for future releases are much more ambitious than your last strategy update. What has changed? Why are you more confident you can deliver a fuller slate of content? So first and foremost, in our previous strategy update, we were not very much about pipelines, about future product plans. We were mostly or solely focused on transformation and how we are willing to approach development, what we call RED 2.0. And from that moment, which at the last strategy update was 1.5 years ago, we started transformation. So we are more confident, of course, because we are -- after the phases of transformation, we see first positive results. We see how we can work in Asia, how we can deliver. And we have new technology. Unreal Engine 5, of course, with its challenges, but it's ultimately at the end of the day, we believe that it will help streamline our development. And on top of that, we are opening PROJEKT RED North America, which should significantly grow our capabilities in terms of recruitment. Okay. And I will read the second one. How are you thinking about the use of the third-party outsourcers to help deliver your development ambitions? Michal, maybe that's for you.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveSo when it comes to third party, it's not even outsources, it's partner, because outsources suggests that these are companies that help us do like a portion of the game. In some cases, they're actually working on a game per se. So we're looking for people who share our ambitions who share our drive for quality and who we believe are not going to deliver experience that would be inferior to what the fans of that given IP that given franchise deserve. So we definitely don't want to cut corners with any of the games that would be done in cooperation with third-party development team.
Adam Kicinski
executiveAnd the third question from Omar is definitely for Piotr. How much cash do you think you need to maintain on the balance sheet during this accelerated phase of game releases?
Piotr Nielubowicz
executiveYes. As of the last reporting quarter, we had slightly above PLN 1 billion on our bank accounts. And what I can share with you is that we definitely aim at having decent safety buffers. We want to be self-financed, and the safety buffer in our cash was with us 4 years till now, and we do not want to change the situation. Having said that, we will balance between the revenues generated on a daily basis, continuing to sell our products, releasing new products like the ones to come in a shortest time are the Witcher 3 next-gen addition, Phantom Liberty expansion and other projects later on announced to being the strategy. And at the same time, continuously and gradually financing development of future games. However, we are not sharing precisely the outgoing or income future cash flows. And therefore, the future cash balances as per different future balance dates.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveOkay. I can read the next question from Konrad Krasuski. What is the difference between Sirius and Polaris? And there is also a second part of that question, and what is the future for target in incentive plan? I'm going to take the first part of the question. We sort of spoke about that in one of the previous questions. So Polaris is the next Witcher game, you may think similar to what we've been doing in the past with Witcher 3, 2, 1 and so on. So like a continuation of the Core series and Project Sirius is the one 1 reaching out to broader demographics for the meantime as I discussed before. So to people who are interested in the franchise, interested in the IP, but are not necessarily into playing hardcore role-playing game like The Witcher series we presented so far.
Adam Kicinski
executiveThe second question from Konrad Krasuski Bloomberg is -- and what is the future for targets in the incentive plan? So as I already mentioned, we continue working on next iteration of our incentive plan. However, we plan to change it. It will not be a direct continuation or direct multiplication of the historic programs. We plan to change a bit of the logic of it, make it more comparable with incentive plans offered by our top competitors in the global scale. As soon as we have all the details, we'll share them with you. The next question from Morgan Stanley. Just a point of clarification, what are the 2 games being developed in parallel now? Would you consider the Cyberpunk DLC as one of the 2 games? Phantom Liberty and Sirius are the 2 ongoing development. So first and foremost, Phantom Liberty, we don't call it DLC. It's a huge expansion. So from the development perspective from how you organize the production, it's very similar. It's actually the same as the produced full fledged game. So the first AAA project, the first AAA content we are working on, yes, this is Phantom Liberty. And the second one is preproduction of Polaris, and Sirius is on top of this because we were talking about CD PROJEKT RED working on 2 AAA content development and Sirius is on top of that, it's run in the [indiscernible] as well. The next question is from Maria Mickiewicz with Wood & Company. Taking into account your development plans, where would you see the size of your development team in, let's say, 3-year horizon and to double check order around 800 developers now? So we are constantly looking for talent and developers, that's for sure, we have to grow. The group currently employs over 1,200 people, including nearly 800 developers, but this includes GOG. In our studios, we have over 700 developers. So those are developers working on the game itself. And it's -- I'm not ready to talk about the targeted numbers of people. But for sure, our North American teams will grow and we will grow our European forces as well because those ambitious plans are based on the assumptions that will keep growing our creative forces. The next question from [indiscernible]. Do you consider potential equity issue to finance the ambitious plans. For now, we do not have such plans and we do not consider issuing new equity. As you know, we've -- today, we've announced a buyback program. So the direction is rather the opposite. What would be your role in Canis Majoris projects? Purely the publisher? That was the second question from Maria Mickiewicz, Wood & Company. Michal, that's for you, I guess.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveSo we obviously would be publisher for the Canis Majoris project. Having said that, there's also a certain development and technology overlap. So there will be parts of the project where we would be participating with -- in development of the project over the team that is developing this project. However, a vast majority of that project will be done by that team specifically. So like I said, participating, but not really make it -- it's external, but published by us.
Adam Kicinski
executiveAnd there is another question actually, the follow-up question from Maria Mickiewicz. In terms of the size of the projects, would it be fair to assume that Polaris, Orion Hadar will be a large AAA game, while the remaining 2, Sirius and Canis Majoris, relatively smaller production? Michal, maybe you.
Michal Nowakowski
executiveSure. I can take that. So you're correct that Polaris, Orion and Hadar will be large AAA games. Having said that, we would definitely not call Sirius and Canis Majoris smaller games. Canis Majoris is a AAA stand-alone project. Sirius, Project Sirius also an ambitious project. It's different than what you got used to when the main, Witcher series However, as I mentioned earlier, we're fully going behind it, and it's a big project for us as well.
Operator
operatorNext question is from Rafal Wiatr from Citi.
Rafal Wiatr
analystI would apologize for repeating other questions. I have to say that I'm still confused a little bit about the sort of timing and the scale of the games. So if you can confirm that 4 projects would be AAA projects, that's what I sort of understand, and please correct me if I'm wrong. If you can comment on Polaris project, which will take 6 years on publishing, but when that will sort of start -- or should we count from now that 6-year period? And then, if you can say, Hadar, will it be earlier quality release earlier than 6, 7 years from now?
Adam Kicinski
executiveSo I'll take probably all of it. Adam Kicinski. Starting from Polaris. Polaris is the next full-fledged, open world, story-driven, RPG in the Witcher universe, and it will start the Saga. The Saga, which means, in this case, 3 games. And this 6-year window is starting from the release of Polaris. So we are going to release Polaris, and then within 6 years, the second and the third game in the Saga, and all of them full-fledged AAA are RPGs. Hadar, we just started last year conceptual work, not on the game itself, but on the set. For the first time, we are working on our own IP. We are incubating it internally. So we need some time to be ready to start working on the game.
Rafal Wiatr
analystCan you still hear me?
Adam Kicinski
executiveYes.
Rafal Wiatr
analystSo just -- and I do apologize if it might the question may sound bizarre. But I do understand that it's a 6-year period, that the 6-year period can start 10 years from now or 3 years from now. That's sort of more if you can just give us a little bit of insight. And if that is the case, then Hadar is going to be a long way project from here, from today.
Adam Kicinski
executiveSo we are not talking about release dates. We've just said that we've started development as a preproduction, as the first phase of development of Polaris in Q1 this year. And once we'll be ready to talk about that, of course, we'll talk. But in the past, our development of big games together with technology were between 4, 5 years. And once Polaris is released, then we are going to release the second and the third game in the Saga counting the time from the moment of release of Polaris, and then within 6 years, we believe that we'll deliver another 2 big games. And Hadar really way too early to talk about that.
Rafal Wiatr
analystI do assume that the projects that are presented here are more in a chronological order, is that correct?
Adam Kicinski
executiveNo. They are not. No, no, they are not in chronological order. We said that the first 3 games in our pipeline which means that will be released, not in chronological order, but will be released to the market first, so Polaris, Sirius and Canis Majoris. So this is the only sneak peak to our thinking about orders. So those 3 should be first on the market without think which first, which second, which is third, and on the rest we are not guiding. I think we are running out of time, and I would like to thank you again for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, do not hesitate to contact our IR team directly by e-mail. Have a nice evening. Goodbye.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day.
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