Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Cedar Woods Properties Limited Half Year Results Presentation and Q&A. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Nathan Blackburne, CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Cedar Woods' Half Year Results for FY '22. I'm Nathan Blackburne, Cedar Woods' Managing Director; and with me is Leon Hanrahan, our CFO. In terms of today's agenda, firstly, I'll give you an overview of the business, including our strategy and progress with ESG, then I'll hand over to Leon to give you a snapshot of the half year financial results. I'll then talk you through the market conditions, portfolio highlights and the outlook for the business. Here are a few slides about our company. Cedar Woods is an ASX-listed property development company with a market capitalization of $420-odd million. We have a diverse range of products, including land estates in growth areas of capital cities, townhouses and apartments in the suburbs and commercial projects. And we now have more than 10,000 lots in the pipeline that are across 33 projects, which are in the states of Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland. Our business has a strong reputation for its disciplined strategy execution and for its ability to consistently acquire new projects and grow earnings. We are pleased with the outlook for the company, noting the buoyant conditions we are experiencing around the country across our projects. Cedar Woods' strategy is to grow and develop our national project portfolio diversified by geography, product type and price point so that it continues to hold broad customer appeal and performs well in a range of market conditions. And this strategy is proving successful with the strong relative financial returns that we've been able to deliver over the years. We have multiple product types in 4 states and different price points that are appealing to a wide variety of buyer profiles. And it's fair to say that this strategy of diversification has helped us through COVID-19. I now wanted to talk to you about our progress with ESG. ESG ties in with one of our key values, which is we think about tomorrow. We have recently significantly updated our ESG strategy and enhanced our ESG reporting, as you will see from the 2021 annual report, including the TCFD disclosure, and have generally received very positive feedback, including a rating from MSCI, a globally recognized research and ratings agency. The ESG strategy builds on our enviable track record on sustainability and social responsibility. Initiatives are being implemented across the business to reduce the company's environmental footprint as we generally do our bit to help decarbonize. As part of our carbon reduction strategy, we have commenced carbon footprint mapping across our corporate operations. The results of this will be used to further guide the company's reduction strategy. Cedar Woods has a strong office culture. And recently, we conducted a staff survey, the results from which demonstrated high satisfaction and engagement scores. And Cedar Woods continues its national partnership with The Smith Family, Australia's leading children's education charity. So I'm now going to hand over to Leon, who's going to take you through the financial highlights.

Thanks, Nathan. I'll first provide a summary of our half year results, then make some comments on the balance sheet before looking at the trend in our quarterly sales. In the first half of financial year '22, we delivered a net profit after tax of $14.1 million and revenue of $174.4 million from 500 settlements. While revenue was broadly in line with the prior corresponding period, net profit and earnings per share were down as a result of lower margin product delivered in the period. Earnings in financial year '22 will be weighted to the second half when more high-margin products will be delivered, and we are guiding to achieve moderate growth in net profit after tax for the full year before delivering stronger growth thereafter. Reflecting on the interim results and the expectations for the full year, the Board has declared an interim dividend of $0.13, fully franked, in line with last year's interim dividend. Full year dividends are expected to be 60% to 65% of net profit after tax for the full year, with the Board to consider the final dividend with the full year results. Cedar Woods shares currently trade on a favorable yield of 5% fully franked when considering dividends that were paid over the last 12 months. We are pleased to have contracted 682 lots, dwellings or offices in the first half, and we hold presale contracts with a value of $560 million at 31 December. This is up 47% on the same time last year, with the second half earnings substantially derisked and a great platform for financial year '23. We expect about 28% of these presales will deliver revenue in the second half of financial year '22, with the balance landing in financial years '23 and '24. Setting the business up for continued growth in earnings into the future, during the period, we contracted new land acquisitions in WA, Victoria and Queensland, with combined value of approximately $100 million that have added more than 1,800 lots to our project pipeline. Over the page, I'll talk a little about the balance sheet, and we continue to operate with a solid moderately geared balance sheet. Total assets at 31 December of $723 million was up in the half as we invested in new projects that will deliver earnings into the future. Net assets and equity are up reflecting the first half result, less the final financial year '21 cash dividend paid during the period. Net bank debt of $196 million was up on the full year. And correspondingly, gearing, measured by net bank debt to equity and net bank debt to total tangible assets less cash, were also up but remain comfortable and sitting around the midpoint of the company's target range. The company increased the limit and extended the tenure of its 3- and 5-year corporate finance facility during the period with the $95 million increased limit, giving the company $330 million in combined finance facilities and ensuring continued secure long-term funding availability. We maintain a strong liquidity position with sizable facility headroom of $86 million available at the end of the half and very strong interest cover recorded in the calendar year. In terms of net sales, another strong quarter was recorded in Q2 of financial year '22, with sales up 28% on the prior corresponding period. The Q2 net sales was the highest sales result since Q4 of financial year '20 when housing stimulus was first announced, and it's the second highest quarterly result in the last 3 years. This is very pleasing for our outlook. And I'll now hand back to Nathan to talk about market conditions.

Thank you, Leon. Just running through market conditions for the new housing sector, and then I will run through things in a bit more detail by state. The new housing sector is benefiting from strong fundamentals in the favorable economic conditions, low interest rates, low in unemployment and a shortfall in supply. Although interest rates are likely on an upwards trajectory, they will still remain low in historical terms for some time. House prices have grown strongly in the past 12 months, especially in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. Brisbane though remains relatively affordable as is the case with our other markets such as South Australia and WA. Rental vacancies are very low, and this is spurring the investor market. Loan commitments are up 74% year-on-year for investors based on December ABS data. And overall, housing loan commitments are at a record $32 billion, up 26% over last year. Price growth has outpaced cost increases in most markets, and this is an important point. Globally, there is competition for materials, and the price of steel and timber has increased materially. Supply chain bottlenecks are affecting our business in some areas, and there is potential for further localized cost increases and program delays due to construction workforce and supply chain impacts. Immigration will need to return to sustain the new housing sector's performance. And when it does, sales conditions are anticipated to be favorable, and we fully expect immigration to return to pre-COVID levels. Importantly, new housing supply is being limited by construction sector constraints that I've talked about. And this is resulting in many planned projects within the industry not being delivered. And this will serve to support future demand. Overall, we expect demand for new housing to continue to be elevated for at least the medium term, and especially so in the more affordable markets that we operate in. Conditions do vary from state to state with the common themes being those that I've talked through on the previous slide. Melbourne was subject to restrictions for a large part of the first half, but started to recover well when the restrictions eased. There are some delays to apartment projects due to lower inquiry and, therefore, slower time frames in reaching presales. But land estates and townhouse developments are going well. We are seeing some cost pressures developing, but generally, these are being outpaced by strong price gains. Brisbane's recovery is being driven by relative affordability and Sydney and Melbourne buyers, which are heading north. The apartment market is strong, and we have launched our first apartments in Brisbane, which have sold well. Growth in sales prices across our projects here have outpaced the growth in costs that we've experienced, especially for our landed estates. Perth saw moderate to strong sales in the first half, depending upon the location and product type. The surge in building has caused some supply constraints and cost pressures as builders work through the stimulus orders. Price growth is more subdued than in other markets, except at a couple of high-performing projects of ours. WA is yet to experience sustained volume and price growth that we've seen in other states, but we are confident this is to come with the catalyst to the net population inflows. Adelaide has been a strong market in the first half, and this is expected to continue. The rental vacancy rate is extraordinarily low and will underpin investor demands going forward. Our new releases are all being met with high demand, and we are consistently increasing prices at all projects. I now wanted to provide some insight into our portfolio, and in particular, the presales composition. Presales are essentially our contracts on hand that we have secured buyers for and that we are currently delivering the product for. These charts demonstrate the geographic and product diversification in our portfolio. The first chart shows the proportion of our portfolio in each state, with WA and Victoria playing the dominant roles, but with an increasing representation from Queensland and South Australia, consistent with our geographic diversification strategy. The next chart shows our presales, or contracts on hand, by location. And as you can see, there is a greater proportion from the East Coast markets. And we expect good contributions from all states in FY '22. The chart on the right shows the mix of product in the presales, with residential land still being the largest sector for us, but townhouses and apartments together accounting for half of our presales, a reflection of how our business has changed as we broaden our product types. We continue to maintain this diversification with the ongoing acquisition of medium-density sites as well as master-planned communities around the country. So I'm now going to provide an overview of our state portfolios and some selected projects. So starting with WA, we have 11 projects and more than 5,000 lots or dwellings. We have projects catering for a range of buyer types and a mix of different products throughout our portfolio. But it is predominantly residential land lots in master-planned communities on the state -- on the city fringe. There are several mature projects, and we are actively building and replenishing our portfolio in WA. Recent acquisitions were at Subiaco and at Eglinton. Bushmead is in the Perth's foothills and is only 16 kilometers from the city in an area with very low competition. It will deliver around 900 lots being a mix of land and townhouses. Conditions have been strong, with price growth of over 20% in 2021 as the estate appeals to a wide range of buyer types. The Bushmead estate is a demonstration of how to successfully integrate residential housing with surrounding conservation areas, and we're very proud of the outcome there. The estate has strong environmental credentials and has a reputation for being one of Perth's best designed and most sustainable master-planned communities. Our most recent acquisition is in WA at Eglinton, which is 45 kilometers north of the Perth CBD in this growing corridor of Perth. We are planning a major master-planned community at the site, which will benefit from being close to a new train station, which is scheduled to open in 2023, as well as a freeway extension. It will include a primary school, extensive park lands and a commercial hub, which will ensure its appeal to family, first-time buyers as well as upgraders. The project is expected to contribute to earnings for over a decade, and this is from FY 2024. Now turning to our Victorian portfolio. In Victoria, we currently have 11 projects, which offer a wide range of products, including land lots, townhouses, apartments as well as offices. One important factor that underpins our Victorian projects is that they are in high-performing locations with little competition and have strong appeal to the owner-occupier market. Our land and townhouse projects have been selling strongly with excellent price growth, while the apartment and commercial projects have been a little slower. We recently added to our Victorian portfolio with new projects at Fraser Rise and Fieldstone in the northwestern corridor of Melbourne, and these added 725-odd lots to our project pipeline. Williams Landing in Victoria is a large scale master-planned development with over 3,000 homes and a large-scale mixed-use town center. It's a diverse mix of land, townhouses, apartments and commercial developments. And there's up to 10 years project life for many with the 17 hectares of land that remain in the town center. We haven't launched a commercial development at Williams Landing in a couple of years. And in the first half, we launched the strata office development called Boston Commons, which, pleasingly, is now over 60% sold. The Williams Landing Shopping Center has been performing well, and we can report that it is 100% leased. Importantly, the market value of this asset is at a significant premium over book value. There is much potential for this Williams Landing project for many years to come. And given its low-cost base, future contributions are projected to be significant. Mason Quarter is our latest new project to launch in Melbourne in the growing suburb of Wollert in Melbourne's door. Sales conditions have been strong, and we have 169 presales from the initial stages. And development is expected to start in the third quarter. We're expecting this estate to be contributing to earnings over approximately a 5-year period. Now let's turn to Queensland. We have 5 projects in Queensland and a total of 1,500 lots or dwellings to deliver, and there's a mix of land estates, apartments and townhouses there. This pipeline will allow good contributions from Queensland projects over approximately a 5- to 7-year period. The portfolio is performing well and significant earnings contributions are starting to come from Queensland, especially the Ellendale project in Brisbane's West. Greville is a 3.7-hectare site, accommodating a mix of townhouses, apartments and a childcare center. It's close to 2 train stations, close to schools and close to shops. The townhouses at the project are selling well with strong price growth, but there are increased construction costs, which has eroded some of the margin improvement. The project's first apartment sales are launched recently, and we have achieved 50% presold already. We are about halfway through the development of Ellendale, which is a prestigious 900-lot master-planned community. It's the closest major land estate to the Brisbane CBD, which in part explains its relative strong performance. Sales have been excellent in the first half, and we've seen significant price growth of around 30% over the last 12 months. Interestingly, the project is attracting buyers in New South Wales and Victoria, largely driven by the relative affordability of property in Brisbane, but also the natural setting of the project. We have a large bank of presales at this estate as a result of the strong demand, and it will be a really good contributor over the next 5 years. And lastly, an overview of the South Australian portfolio. In Adelaide, we have 4 projects, including 3 within the Glenside estate. In total, we have around 1,300 townhouses and apartments yet to deliver, a pipeline which will keep us busy for approximately 8 to 10 years. South Australian projects are set to make a meaningful contribution in coming years, which is testament to the company's strategy and the execution of it. We are also open to new acquisitions in Adelaide, given the success of the Glenside project and the Port Adelaide project. The Glenside covers 17 hectares and is only 3 kilometers from the Adelaide CBD. It's a really special project that we're very proud of. On completion, there will be around 1,000 townhouses and apartments, so it will be a substantial community in its own right. We expect the project will have a duration of between 8 and 10 years. And at any point in time at Glenside, we have numerous stages underway, be they townhouse stages in design or delivery or apartment projects in design or delivery. The sustainability credentials of this development are worth pointing out. The project team has worked very hard to boost the environmental credentials of the development. And accordingly, it is met with strong demand. There are many presold townhouses and apartments under construction, some of which will settle in FY '22 and others into FY '23. Fletcher's Slip is 14 kilometers northwest of the CBD and will comprise around 500 dwellings, a combination of townhouses and apartments. The project is well-located adjacent to a train station and is close to the beach. Subdivision works for initial stages are complete, and we have the construction of 75 townhouses underway. The first apartment building has just been launched, offering waterfront living options to buyers in the area. And now for some commentary on our outlook for FY '22 and future years. In our portfolio, we have a growing number of new projects that will start to deliver first earnings over the short and medium term. This is a result of the successful acquisitions activity over the last few years, which has significantly added to our portfolio. There is a mix of apartments, townhouses and land estates, and the new projects are spread geographically. These new projects, along with the existing ones already contributing in the portfolio, will support our growth outlook. And lastly, I wanted to talk about the outlook for the business. Conditions for the new housing sector are buoyant, and the fundamentals supporting it are really strong. We have a good presence in the more affordable markets of Queensland, WA and South Australia, which should see them outperform over the medium term. Price growth is expected to moderate as interest rates increase, but noting that interest rates are expected to remain near historical low levels. Backed by presales of $560 million, the company is expecting moderate growth in earnings in FY '22 and strong growth in earnings over the medium term. The outlook is subject to market conditions and COVID-19 impact, with workforce and supply chain constraints affecting delivery times at some locations. We've got a long pipeline of quality projects with many in high-demand, low-supply locations to support earnings growth in future years, with all of this leaving us feeling confident about our future and our ability to grow earnings sustainability. So thank you, and that ends our half year results presentation. I'll now hand over to the operator for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from George Batsakis from AustralianSuper.

Just one question. On the comment there about sales up for the first half of the year, I think, were up 18%, but settlements were down about 14% to 500. The difference there, is that just delays in building the -- in getting work done. You can't get trainees, builders are busy, that sort of thing?

Yes. So throughout the year, we don't necessarily have linear settlements month-to-month. So we are a bit lumpy, whereas sales tend to tick over month-to-month. It's not reliant on having the product ready to settle. But if we were to go back 6 months and had our outlook for what we wanted to settle in the first half, it was higher than what we achieved for some of those reasons that you mentioned. There's been some interruptions on site, more so about availability of resources with people quarantining or being close contacts and needing to go off-site for a week or so, and that's been an interruption. Equally, the departments who are approving various components of your subdivisions, et cetera, they are also going through similar things with staff shortages and not being able to turn things around as quickly.

Great. And just one other question there on the -- you mentioned a couple of times through the presentation on cost increases. And so far, price increases are being able to offset that. Do you see the cost increases getting worse over the next 12 months? Or how do you see the outlook on cost increases?

So George, thanks for the question and hello. There are certainly still cost pressures, but I believe the growth in cost has peaked. Whilst we think that costs will continue to rise in most states, it will be much more moderate for the coming year or 2 than we've had in the last year. So I think we're past the worst of it. There is still some pressure on particular materials and the availability of particular trades, which is, in turn, pushing up costs. But we think we're past the worst of it, and it will gradually get better.

One example on that front is we've just done a tender for a land subdivision stage in Melbourne, and that one's actually come in under budget, albeit Perth and Brisbane are probably more impacted by those cost pressures than the other states have been.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Blackburne for closing remarks.

You can see that we are confident in our future, given the extent of the presales we have and the buoyant conditions that we're experiencing around the country. We are looking forward to getting on and delivering our projects and the results that we've talked about for FY '22 and over the medium term. So thanks for sitting in on the half year results. We'll get together with you again at the end of the financial year, if not before. Thank you very much.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.