Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Cedar Woods Properties Limited H1 FY '23 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Nathan Blackburne, Managing Director. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of the FY '23 Half Year Financial Results for Cedar Woods. In terms of today's agenda, firstly, I will give you an overview of the business, and then I'll hand over to Leon Hanrahan, our CFO, to give you a snapshot of the financial results. I'll then talk through the market conditions, portfolio highlights and the outlook. I would like to make an acknowledgment of the traditional custodians of the land here in Perth. We pay our respect to elders past, present and emerging, for they hold the memories, the traditions, and the culture of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people across the nation. Now for some background information on Cedar Woods. Cedar Woods is a property development company that was established in 1987. Our products include land estates, townhouses, apartments and commercial developments. And in our portfolio, we have over 10,500 lots dwelling units in the pipeline, which is made up by 33 projects across the states of Victoria, South Australia, WA and Queensland. We have an excellent long-term track record in growing earnings and outperforming peers, and we have always made a profit and always paid a dividend. Our focus on shareholder returns is instilled through disciplined capital management. And over a long period, we have performed well compared to our peers. We have a stable and highly experienced Board and executive team. The business has navigated numerous property cycles. However, property remains a long-term generator of reliable returns, and we are confident in the ability of our business to continue generating good returns for our shareholders. Our strategy is to grow and develop our national project portfolio, diversified by geography, product type and price point so that it continues to hold broad customer appeal and perform well in a range of market conditions. The strategy is proving successful for the business, with strong relative financial returns that we've been able to deliver. Cedar Woods has multiple product types in 4 states and different price points appealing to varying buyer profiles. This is very important in the current cycle, where particularly first home buyers are the most impacted by increases in interest rates. We have 4 strategic priorities listed here and good progress has been made with each of them. We've maintained a strong balance sheet and financier relationships, whilst being disciplined in our growth strategy. Recently, our financiers increased and extended our corporate finance facilities, giving us long tenure. We continue to target earnings and dividend growth in FY '23, but when measured with our acquisition activity over the half, noting that we did much work in acquiring over FY '22. We have recently entered into a partnering arrangement with the Australian arm of Tokyo Gas, to co-develop the Banksia apartments in Adelaide. Tokyo Gas is a substantial Japanese public company, that has made a strategic decision to invest in Australian real estate, as part of its sustainability and growth strategy. It's intended that we will do more developments with them, as opportunities arise. Our third priority, operational excellence is quite a broad priority area. There is a concerted effort to make the business the best it can be in terms of systems, safety and products that meet customer expectations. And finally, there is high performance culture, which is all the more important in a tight skills market and I can say that I am pleased with how the business is going in terms of employee engagement scores and the value proposition we offer staff. ESG ties in with many of our key values, including We Think About Tomorrow. We have been working to further reduce the impact of our projects through implementation of minimum sustainability standards in developments across our business. During the first half, we published the results of our first carbon footprint mapping, which is disclosed in the FY '22 ESG report. A carbon reduction initiative is already underway to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We've increased our focus on cybersecurity and protection of personal data, with enhancements to our systems and ongoing staff awareness training. Cedar Woods continues its national partnership with the Smith family, Australia's leading children's education charity. And the initiative I'm really proud of is our Community Grants program, and these are in place across many of our major projects. I'll now hand over to Leon to take you through the financial highlights.

Thanks, Nathan. I'll first provide a summary of our results and then make some comments on the balance sheet and cash flow. In the first half of financial year '23, we delivered a net profit after tax of $9.1 million and revenue of $152.3 million from 356 settlements. Revenue was down 14% compared to the prior corresponding period, with net profit and earnings per share also down, as a result of a lower number of lots delivered in the period. We are expecting a strong second half and to equal or exceed the full year earnings of the prior year, with the extent of full year earnings growth dependent on the timing of settlements. Reflecting on the interim results and expectations for the full year, the Board has declared an interim dividend of $0.13 fully franked, in line with last year's interim dividend. The Board will consider the final dividend in the context of the full year results. Cedar Woods shares currently trade on a favorable yield of approximately 6% fully franked when considering the dividends that were paid over the last 12 months. While sales slowed in the first half compared to the prior corresponding period, we do hold presales contracts, with a value of $509 million at 31 December and approximately half of these are expected to settle in the second half of financial year '23, and the balance contributing to earnings in financial years '24 and '25. Setting up the business for continued growth into the future. During the period, we went unconditional on previously contracted land acquisitions, that have added more than 500 lots to our project pipeline. Taking a look at the balance sheet; we continue to operate a solid moderately geared balance sheet. Total assets at 31 December of $827.6 million, was up in the half, as we invested in our projects that will deliver earnings in the second half and future years. Net assets and equity are broadly in line with the start of the half, reflecting the first half earnings less the financial year '22 cash dividend that was paid during the period. Net bank debt of $233.4 million was up on the full year and correspondingly gearing, measured by net bank debt to total tangible assets less cash or net bank debt to equity were also up, but remain comfortable. Settlements in the second half will see gearing fall by the end of the financial year. The company increased the limit and extended the tenure of its 3-year and 5-year corporate finance facilities in January 2023, with the increased limit giving the company $360 million in combined finance facilities and ensuring continued secure long-term funding availability. We maintain a solid liquidity position, with sufficient facility headroom available at the end of the half and a strong interest cover of 5.2x for the calendar year, although down on the corresponding period, as a result of the softer first half earnings. Taking a look at our cash flow and capital management objectives. We continue to benefit from the long-term support of our financiers, as we've mentioned, and supplement our finance facility headroom of $42 million at 31 December, we increased limits in January '23 by $30 million, to provide additional funding capacity. We seek to recycle capital when appropriate and over the next 12 months, we expect to realize the $100.5 million excess of current assets over current liabilities on the balance sheet at 31 December. In addition, the previously announced Williams Landing Shopping center sale is expected to add over $30 million in free cash flow. Our acquisition strategy is measured taking a long-term view of market cycles and positioning the company to grow earnings into the future. To this effect, $25.7 million was invested in land acquisitions in the first half, and we expect to invest $53.4 million in previously announced acquisitions in the second half to grow the project pipeline, which will be funded by a combination of operating cash flow in the company's corporate finance facilities. With the positive operating cash flow generated from the business and the large delivery and settlement program scheduled for the second half, the company projects to maintain standalone liquidity and enhance its capital position further by 30 June, '23. I'll now hand back to Nathan to talk to market conditions.

Thanks, Leon. Now we'll look at the market conditions and the macroeconomic themes. The key factors that determine property market conditions include broader economic conditions, employment levels, population growth, interest rates and sentiment. Many of the macro themes are supportive, in that there is low unemployment, the population is growing, vacancy rates are very low and supply is constrained. And I have some more detailed slides on these points shortly. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and the resultant drop in sentiment have continued to create headwinds for the sector, and this was evident with our H1 sales, which were lower than last year, by about 50%. In fact, sales have been soft now for about 12 months. Overall, we expect sales to continue to be lower over the balance of FY '23, with recovery expected to start sometime in FY '24. The more affordable markets of WA and South Australia are still relatively cheap and are therefore likely to outperform. We expect investor demand to remain strong, driven by attractive yields with low supply of rental stock and rapidly rising rents. Gross yields are now generally between 4% and 6%, the strongest they've been for a long time. There is limited supply of new housing across most product types and jurisdictions, meaning there could be a reasonably sharp correction. New dwelling commencements have dropped significantly, mainly due to builder capacity limitations, construction delays and costs that are rising. Development finance availability and cost is also restricting supply, with the major banks restricting lending over the past few years. The graphs on the left of this slide showed a significant drop in apartment launches and commencements across 3 capitals. The volume of projects commencing construction is a fraction of that being offered and delivered in prior years, and a fraction of what it needs to be. The graph on the right shows the national residential vacancy rate. A balanced market is considered to be around 3%. In some states, it's as low as 0.5% and nationally, it's now sitting at around 1%. It will take some time to address the supply needed, particularly as immigration and students are returning at a rapid rate. A key message here is that supply shortfalls will underpin the performance of the sector, especially in terms of values. Those with supply that are ready when the correction occurs, will benefit substantially. Strong population growth is currently occurring, as the government responds to nationwide skill shortages. Immigration and worker numbers are being increased and brought forward by government, in response, and we expect historically high levels to persist for at least the medium term. We've just seen the WA government announce a major pitch in the U.K. to lure 30,000 skilled workers to the state, as one example of what states are trying to do to secure labor. Strong immigration will of course, drive demand for new housing. Job security is a key driver of sentiment, which in turn, is key to the new housing sector's performance. This is because housing is the single biggest financial investment most people make in their lifetimes. Whilst unemployment could rise a little over 2023, it is expected to remain at relatively low levels, when you look back in time, as this graph does. Despite recent declines, property is a proven long-term generator of positive reliable returns for investors, with most capitals still well up on pre-COVID average prices. We have seen in recent weeks that established house prices are starting to stabilize. Auction clearance rates and days on market too have been remarkably good in recent weeks. I now wanted to provide some insights into our portfolio, and in particular, the presales composition. Our products are diversified by type, price and geography. That allows the company to perform well across property cycles, a key differentiator to our peers. We have a long history of successfully acquiring strategically located sites, ensuring a pipeline of projects that can generate strong returns for our shareholders and excellent products for our customers. Recent acquisitions and over 10,500 lots, positions CWP for an upswing in demand from increased migration and housing undersupply. These charts demonstrate the geographic and product diversification in our portfolio. We have good contributions from all 4 states and our various product types, which talks to the successful execution of our strategy. And the $509 million in presale contracts we have, are from a variety of product types and locations. Starting with WA, we have 13 residential projects and more than 5,400 lots or dwellings. Our WA portfolio is primarily residential lots, and we are in a good spread of locations, both north and south. During the half, we added some more land to the successful Ariella estate in Henley Brook. And here's a couple of examples of new projects. The Atwater site is located close to the center of Rockingham, a major employment node south of Perth CBD. The project is an infill site that will comprise the mix of small land lots and townhouses. And we launched sales in December 2022 and have a good interest in the project to date. Civil works have already commenced on site, and we expect the development to contribute to earnings over FY '24 and FY '25. Eglinton is an 86 hectare site in Perth Northwest growth corridor that we acquired in FY '22. This new community will be conveniently located 500 meters from the new Eglinton train station, which is due to open in 2023. The estate will have 1,200 lots over several neighborhoods and is expected to contribute to earnings over 11 years from FY '24. The first stage approvals have been secured, and sales have just been launched. In Victoria, we have 9 projects, which offer a wide range of products, including land lots, townhouses, apartments and offices. One important factor that underpins our Victorian projects, is that they are in high-performing locations, with little competition and have strong appeal to owner occupiers. We recently confirmed the acquisition of Fieldstone in the Northwestern corridor of Melbourne, adding 529 dwellings to our project pipeline with development to commence in 2026. Sales have been soft during the first half of FY '23, although there have been stronger pockets within the portfolio. Williams Landing is a major master plan community, with a mixed-use town center and around 3,000 homes across several neighborhoods. It has 8 to 9 years of project life remaining, mainly in the town center, where we have over 15 sites with planning approval ready to be developed for apartments, townhouses, offices, education or retail. Cedar Woods is actively bidding for single-tenant office opportunities, that can significantly boost earnings when secured and delivered. We successfully pioneered Strata office development in Melbourne West, and our third Strata office building, Boston Commons is sold out with the fourth Strata office building currently in the design phase. The Williams Landing Shopping Center at the project is performing well. It is 99% leased and as discussed earlier, is being offered for sale via an international expression of interest campaign. Settlement is expected of that sale in FY '23 or FY '24. Mason Quarter is an 800-plus lot estate in the high-performing suburbs of Wollert. It's 26 kilometers north of the Melbourne CBD and there are 250-plus presales, which have been achieved since launch in 2021. Significant price growth has been achieved since launch, though pricing is now stable. Construction is underway for the first 3 stages and first settlements are expected to commence in H2 FY '23. We have 5 projects in Queensland and a total of 1,500 lots to deliver. There's a mixture of land estates apartments and townhouses in this portfolio, and this market has seen significant cost increases, which is impacting the timing of some stages, but which we expect to restart, once more capacity comes back into the construction sector. Given Southeast Queensland's relative affordability on the East Coast and the population growth expected, we do expect this market to perform well over the medium term, and it will be a strong contributor for us in the second half of FY '23. Ellendale, with a master player community with 900-odd residential lots, is located 12 kilometers northwest of the Brisbane CBD and is adjacent to a National Park. Substantial settlements of presales are expected from this project in 2023. Sage is a new master plan community with over 300 residential lots, which is located 40 kilometers north of Brisbane CBD. The project launched to the market during the first half and has achieved good presales, those slowed in recent times. Buyers to date are a mix of first and second home buyers, with lot prices at around $350,000. In Adelaide, we have 5 projects, including 4 within the large Glenside Master Plan estate. In total, we have around 1,200 townhouses and apartments yet to deliver, a pipeline which will keep us busy for a further 8 or so years. Our South Australian projects are set to make meaningful contributions in coming years, which is a testament to the company's strategy and execution of it. Glenside is a major multiyear infill project for the company, and that is contributing strongly to earnings. It has 1,000 townhouses and apartments planned on a 17-hectare site, just 3 kilometers from the Adelaide CBD. Several apartments and townhouse stages are currently in [ train ] with new releases of both planned in coming months. As noted previously, the latest of these, the Banksia apartments is being developed in partnership with the Australian arm of Tokyo Gas. Fletcher's Slip is in Port Adelaide, 14 kilometers northwest of the Adelaide CBD. There are 500-plus townhouses and apartments and the first stage of townhouses settled in FY '22. Inquiry and sales of the estate have been relatively strong, and it too will be a good earnings contributor over the next 5 years. And now to the outlook for our business. In our portfolio, we have a growing number of new projects that will start to deliver first earnings over the short and medium term. This is as a result of the successful acquisitions over the last few years, which is significantly added to our portfolio. There is a mixture of apartments, townhouses and land estates, and the new projects are well spread geographically. These new projects, along with the existing ones, already contributing in the portfolio support our growth outlook. Factors supporting the new housing sector are low unemployment, high job security and supply limitations. Low but rising interest rates are impacting sentiments. But when rates stabilize, the demand factors are expected to drive a strong recovery. We have a significant presence in relatively affordable markets, which are expected to outperform. Supply constraints, at the same time that migration is returning and investor demand is strong, will support values. Our outlook is underpinned by strong presales of $509 million, partially derisking future earnings. And for the full year, subject to weather and construction sector conditions, we expect to meet or exceed last year's profit of $37.4 million. And finally, the company has a portfolio of over 10,500 lots and dwellings in quality locations to support future earnings. This brings us to the end of our presentation. Thank you for your interest in Cedar Woods.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Shane Bannan from PAC Partners.

Could I just ask a couple of quick questions. I mean specially what you're saying with respect to half 2, the sales line is going to be something like $200 million, $250 million to deliver the outcomes that you're forecasting?

That's correct. So the presales in hand now, which we're anticipating settling in the second half is very much in that order.

The other thing, could you just give us a hand into mentioning the Williams Landing shopping center sales? I think in the past, you've implied that you're carrying it well under market value. And just back engineering some of the numbers you've got in that release, are you seeing the realized price might be something in the order of, say, $60 million or $70 million, is that right?

So Shane, it's Nathan here. We have an international campaign underway at the moment with regards to the sale of that shopping center. And so I didn't really want to speculate on cap rates or price ranges at this point in time, noting that we're seeking to optimize the profit outcomes from that project or that sale. So there are over 30 parties who have signed a confidentiality agreement, and who are in the data room, making it an extremely competitive process. And we are feeling confident about our ability to achieve the result. Needless to say, we expect substantial profit generation from the sale of that asset, be it falling into FY '23 or FY '24. And also just worth noting that, a sale is not certain, but we do remain confident about the ability to achieve an outcome.

Right. And the other last question I had. Just this partnership arrangement you've got with Tokyo Gas, can I get an understanding of the terms of that partnership? And do you intend to keep on pushing down this avenue, as a way of getting access to property [ and otherwise ] funded?

So look, we're really pleased to announce that relationship. And as we've stated in the release, there is the potential to expand that relationship. Tokyo Gas have an approved budget allocated for further investments in Australian real estate in 2023. And Cedar Woods has some history in capital partnering, in matters like this. And so there's quite a bit of commonality about the objectives of the parties. This allows us to further leverage our skills base. It allows us to improve the return metrics for our shareholders. And as you'd expect, it enables us to generate some regular fee income. And yes, you could say that it enables us to participate in more acquisitions than we otherwise would.

And so what they bring to the table, Nathan, implicitly, is the funding capability to acquire these tracts of land?

They are experienced in the area of sustainability and real estate. But they've appointed Cedar Woods, because of our local development expertise, and they will be reliant on us for that development expertise. They are a reasonably big owner of real estate and developer of real estate in Japan.

And so you have skin in the game in terms of bringing the capital commitment as well in that sort of partnership arrangement, or is it more [ honing ] the skills and you have some sort of profit share at the end of the process?

Absolutely, in terms of skin in the game and in fact, with the bank share project, the Tokyo Gas interest is a minority one. But the discussions between the parties are such that, the proportions between the parties is flexible and can be agreed on a deal-by-deal basis. The intention is to grow the relationship between the parties. We're not intending to just do one deal and that's it. There is the potential for us to leverage this relationship in quite a meaningful way.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.