Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

I thank you for joining us for the Cedar Woods 2024 Annual General Meeting. My name is William Hames, and I am Chairman of Cedar Woods. It's now 10 a.m., pretty close. And the quorum is present, and I formally declare this meeting open. I would like also to begin by acknowledging that this meeting is being held on the traditional lands of the Noongar people of the Whadjuk region. I'd also pay my respects to the elders past and present. I welcome all of you, our shareholders, who are joining us today in person or through the web platform. Turning to the agenda. I will provide a recap of our strategy and discuss our financial performance for '24, and I'll also comment on the share price. We will then hear from our Managing Director, Nathan Blackburne, who will provide a business update, showcase some of our projects, comment on the market conditions and finally comment on our outlook. Then I will return to the formal proceedings as set out in the notice of meeting. Voting on all resolutions will be conducted by way of a poll. Shareholders will be able to submit their questions in writing on the Open Briefing platform at any time until the end of the meeting. If you have questions, I encourage you to submit them as early as possible because we have a moderator in place who will receive the questions and provide them later to me. We have a long agenda and limited time. I may not be able to answer all of the questions. If you have a question, it will help us if you can note the resolution to which it relates, unless it is a general question. The session is being recorded, and a webcast of today's presentation will be available via the ASX and also our website after this meeting. The notice convening this meeting and related documents has been made available to shareholders on our website, and I propose that this notice be read. The minutes of the previous general meeting of members have been signed by the Chair and placed on to the shareholders' minute book. I would now like to welcome my fellow Non-executive directors and members of our executive team who are with us today. Nathan Blackburne, to my immediate right; Robert Brown, our Deputy Chairman; Valerie Davies; Jane Muirsmith; and Paul Freedman right at the end as Company Secretary. Paul Say, also a director, is based in Sydney, and he is joining the meeting via telephone. Our strategy is to grow and develop a national project portfolio diversified by geography, product type, price point so that it continues to hold a broad customer appeal, and it performs well in a range of different market conditions. This strategy has been a key differentiator of our business. The strategy is proving successful with strong relative financial returns that we've been able to deliver over a longer term. Cedar Woods has a multiple of product types in 4 states and different price points appealing to varying buyer profiles. This is important as ever, particularly in the last few years so that we can have a product that attracts different buyer profiles and better earnings outcomes and consistent earnings outcomes. As noted last year, we have been reshaping our portfolio in a way that we can grow our land bank. With capital being precious and the cost of debt remaining elevated, we have been progressing our partnering strategy. We will continue, however, to acquire and develop our own projects, while a portion of the portfolio will be conducted with our valued partners. Nathan will highlight the progress with our partnerships in his later address. Let's briefly review the highlights from last year. In '24, we delivered a net profit after tax of $40.5 million, which is up 28%, and a revenue of $386 million from 1,140 settlements. This resulted in a return on equity of 8.8% and earnings per share of $0.492, which is also up 28%. The Board declared a final dividend of $0.17, fully franked, taking full year dividends to $0.25, which is also up 25% on last year. This reflects a payout ratio of approximately 51% of net profit after tax. We are mindful of the importance of the dividend to our shareholders, and we have balanced this with our future capital needs to ensure that our balance sheet remains well funded and supports the growth opportunities across our business. Over the year, we have contracted sales of 1,201 lots, homes or offices, around double of the previous year. As at 30th of June, we held presale contracts with a value of $559 million. This represents a strong outcome, especially considered in the context of total revenue for the year, and in fact, it has now risen to $560 million as at the end of September, as we announced in our first quarter update. These presales will deliver revenue in '25 and '26. Overall, 2024 was a much improved year. Later on, Nathan will talk to you about our expectations for this year. On our share price, let's have a look at the performance in the last 2 financial years and so far this current year. We have momentum building in the business with a record number of lots settled in '24, and this is forecast to be higher in '25. Recently, we have provided guidance to assist providing confidence for the '25 earnings. Our partnering strategy is well underway, and it has been well received by investors. History shows there is a negative correlation between interest rate movements and the price of property stocks. Our share price was impacted by the increase in interest rates since April '22, but more recent stability in rates and the prospect of rate reductions has also helped our stock. Our sector fundamentals remain strong. There is a deepening housing supply shortage. The country has strong employment and a high rate of inbound migration, which will continue to support demand. Sector tailwinds have strengthened in the last year, backed by government policy towards housing construction. And as the graph shows, sentiment is starting to return in favor of listed property companies like Cedar Woods. I now hand over to my colleague, Nathan.

Thanks, William, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us here today. I'm going to give you an overview of the year's activities, challenges and achievements; review some of our projects; and then I'll comment on market conditions and the outlook. So FY '24 was a successful year for Cedar Woods, and the foundation has been laid for an even better FY '25. We now have a portfolio of 40 projects and 10,000 lots dwellings units in the portfolio that will support future earnings. We've got a record number of lots under production, I'm pleased to say, and in FY '24, we generated an NPAT of $40.5 million and good forward presales that will contribute to both FY '25 and FY '26. Conditions have generally been favorable for the residential housing sector. And that is because of a few reasons. The good population growth that we've been experiencing; the housing supply shortages, which are widespread; and the low unemployment. So these factors are all underpinning the performance of our sector. Market conditions, though, do vary around the country, and I'll give you a bit more of an insight into that later. With a healthy pipeline of quality projects, we are securing the builders that we need to deliver the projects that we've got around the country. Though there is a shortage of apartment builders in several of the states but particularly Queensland and Western Australia. And that is slowing down the production of apartments in those particular locations. Fortunately, we've got lots of land subdivisions and townhouse projects and commercial projects to take up that slack. We've worked hard to create a working environment in the office for our people. Our value proposition for staff is compelling. And especially, they like the opportunity to work on different types of projects, that diversity of developments, be they apartments, townhouses, commercial projects and so on. And coupled with the strong financial position of the company and our growth appetite, the sentiment from staff is overwhelmingly positive. So we continue our investments in systems and tech, particularly in cybersecurity, where we've worked to further minimize the risk of an incident. We have also invested further in our sales and marketing systems, providing for both better data capture, better lead conversion. That's been a strong area for us. And as well, lots of other little projects like moving to an automation of our accounts payable system. We have a pipeline of approximately 10,000 lots, which were -- which, with the limited national supply of housing and strong immigration, will support the future earnings of our business. So as part of our strategy, we are supplementing our portfolio with projects that are undertaken in partnerships. So the partnering strategy is a strategic pivot for us, and we'll see a greater portion of our projects undertaken in these partnering arrangements. So partnering gives rise to a range of benefits, and I'll name a few of them, but particularly in enabling us to scale up our business in a capital-efficient manner. But it also allows us to amplify our return metrics; leverage the existing skills base that we've got in the business; provide further diversification of our story; to access larger quality sites than we would otherwise able to bid for; and finally, to generate fee income as a source of recurring earnings for our business to help iron out, in some years, that lumpiness. So further diversification and greater scale allow the company to perform more consistently through the cycles. And so far, we've established partnerships with both QIC and Tokyo Gas real estate, presenting really exciting opportunities for Cedar Woods to participate in projects of scale without needing to commit the entire capital requirements. QIC and Tokyo Gas are substantial and experienced partners. The QIC partnership allows us to access well-located sites in major town centers for delivering mainly apartments and townhouses. And we've announced 1 JV in the Robina Town Center in Queensland with QIC and are evaluating other opportunities. Tokyo Gas has selected Cedar Woods as a national development partner to work with it in deploying what they've announced a $600 million in capital into property globally, but particularly Australia. And we've announced 3 projects with Tokyo Gas, 2 in Adelaide and 1 here in Perth. And those projects are going well. So the intention with both these arrangements, with QIC and Tokyo Gas is that we do more than just a few projects. We build a critical mass of projects together. So ESG ties in with a number of our key values, one of which is "we think about tomorrow", which encapsulates the value that the company places on both sustainability and innovation. And we achieved good progress in FY '24 with our ESG strategy with some of the outcomes shown on this slide. We advanced our program to measure and report on project missions -- project emissions in preparation for mandatory climate reporting by FY '27. In FY '24, we maintained our strong safety record, and we continue to provide support to the broader community with initiatives such as our contributions and sponsorship of The Smith Family as well as the grass roots supporting community grants programs that we've got across many of our major projects. We pride ourselves in taking steps to innovate with our products. The Bloom retirement model was a concept that Cedar Woods developed out of a series of innovation workshops that we ran across the business. And it's been successfully rolled out by the company in South Australia, and we're exploring other opportunities with this Bloom retirement model to roll it out around the country. So the first Bloom project is nearly complete, and residents will move in over the next few months. And then finally, on this slide, our latest staff survey showed that we achieved an 85% staff satisfaction score, which was up on the good result of 81% in the prior year. So I'll now touch on the market conditions that we're experiencing around the country. This graph shows the gross sales by quarter going back to FY '21. And as you can see, they've generally been building over the last couple of years, and we're very pleased with the quarterly sales results that we're getting at the moment. All buyer categories have been active over the last year with first home buyers and investors being particularly active across the states. Sales have been most buoyant in WA, where the economy is stronger and property is more affordable, but conditions have also been very good in Queensland and South Australia. The sales volumes and price growth in Queensland over the past few months or even 6 months has been really strong and encouraging. And it wouldn't surprise me if that state becomes the strongest performer of them all over FY '25. Sales remained weak in Victoria, and I expect that to continue throughout FY '25. The Victorian government has, in recent weeks, started easing some of the property taxes in play there. And with now what is an affordability advantage for that state, I expect the conditions to improve, but particularly in FY '26. Pleasingly, our Q1 presales balance is up 12% on the same time last year. And importantly, sales growth is a positive forward indicator for our business as those sales eventually translate to settlements and revenue for future periods. So there is a significant shortfall in housing across Australia. Housing demand is currently running at around 240,000 per annum, and the federal government has set a target of 1.2 million new dwellings within 5 years. Housing supply is expected to generate only 175,000 dwellings in 2024 and around 180,000 a year in outer years, showing that shortfall between the 175,000 and the 240,000 needed. So Australia, as a whole, is forecast to have a shortfall of around 260,000 dwellings by mid-2029. The housing supply shortfall also affects the rental market. And you can see on this chart on the right here, the low vacancy rates that are in play around the country. And this problem is going to take many years to fix. In my view, we're talking about at least 5 years before they can make a meaningful dent in the supply issue in this country across product types. So Australian dwelling values have increased by an average of 8% over FY '24. The persistent growth is despite higher interest rates and affordability challenges around the country. And this really comes back to the issue on the previous slide, the lack of supply. There were significant price growth variations, though, across the different states. And this is the chart on the left of this particular slide. The strongest price growth was in Perth, as you can see on the left of that bar chart, but there was also strong price growth experienced in South Australia and Queensland. In Victoria, there was no price growth experienced in that market. And that chart for the whole housing sector generally reflects the experience that Cedar Woods had, although this chart shows 17.5% price growth for Perth property, and we achieved over 30% price growth across our own portfolio in WA. So with a significant Perth portfolio, this is helping with our earnings outlook and the restoration of margins back to where they were and should be. So interest rates are widely expected to start reducing in 2025. And with affordability holding back some buyers, this is expected to sustain or even propel the demand for new housing, if and when it occurs. The next rate-cutting cycle would further increase the amount of people -- the amount that people can borrow for housing and catalyze buyers that are holding out for that rate cut. Rate cutting cycles historically have seen material surges in sales volumes. And looking at the last 9 rate cutting cycles, volumes generally are up 26% over the cycle, interestingly. Whilst there are a number of variables to consider, reductions in interest rates should support both owner occupier and investor demand across our products, but especially the first home buyers which many of our projects appeal to. I'll now go to showcase a few of our projects. So the Eglinton project is a master-planned community with 1,200 residential lots, and it's 47 kilometers north of the Perth CBD in a well-performing corridor. The project got off to a great start in FY '24 with sales that contributed to profits in that year. And it's only a relatively recent acquisition. And I'm pleased to say that out of our 40 projects nationally, this was the strongest performing development in terms of sales volumes and price growth. Price growth in this project over FY '24 was around 38% compared to cost growth, which was less than 5%. So we've sold 200 lots so far. Those lots fell into -- or some of those lots settled in FY '24, but we've got about 10 years of supply left in that project, which is great. And the estate has a microgrid or Community Energy Sharing Network, which consists of a private electricity network with solar panels from rooftops on most houses feeding a large community battery. So this will help lower the energy bills for occupants at that estate. Mason Quarter. This is a good example of one of the company's residential projects. It's 800 lots. It's in the northern -- outer northern suburbs of Melbourne. It's got 2 schools, community facilities, lots of open space. And it's been doing relatively well. Although the Victorian market is quite subdued, it's one of the strongest performing projects in that corridor. So sales rates at that estate were pretty slow over FY '24, though it did contribute strongly in terms of settlements from sales that occurred in the prior year. And then the last project I'm going to talk about is Fletcher's Slip, which is an urban renewal project in South Australia in Port Adelaide, and it's got over 400 townhouses and apartments, very close to a train station and many of which have water frontage. There's a whole range of buyer profiles that are attracted to the project, but including downsizers and first home buyers. And the products generally are priced between now between $700,000 and $1.1 million. And a considerable number of settlements are assumed from this project in FY '25 and in FY '26. So now on to the last slide for me before I hand back to William. Currently, the conditions for the housing sector are very favorable in the states that we operate in, except for Victoria, and I expect Victoria to improve over 2025 calendar year, given it now has what you'd call an affordability advantage compared to the rest of the country. Cedar Woods starts FY '25 in a strong position with $560 million in presales, which are going to settle over FY '25 and FY '26. The balance sheet is in great shape. We've got low gearing and significant liquidity to fund our existing operations and future acquisitions. The partnering strategy that we've announced is progressing really well. 3 projects underway with Tokyo Gas, 1 underway with QIC and plans to expand this. The company is targeting 10% growth in NPAT for FY '25 and is really well placed for the medium term with a pipeline of 10,000 lots, dwelling units to deliver across 4 states. So thank you for listening in, and I'll now hand back to William.

Thank you, Nathan. I now move on to the formal business of this meeting. The first item of business is to receive and consider the financial report for the year ended 30th of June '24, and accompanying directors' report, directors' declaration and the auditor's report. I now table these documents and invite any questions from shareholders that relate to the financial report. Questions can be on the conduct of the audit or the auditor's report may be directed to Ian Campbell, a partner from our auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, who is in attendance today, Ian. Please note that we will take general questions from shareholders later in the meeting. And accordingly, I ask that any questions now be limited to those relating to the financial report. If asking a question, please raise your shareholder card, state your name, who you represent and then ask your question. There is a roving microphone available for questions. Please speak into the microphone when you have a question. Are there any questions in regard to the financial? None from the floor? Are there any questions from the online platform?

There's no questions regarding the annual report.

Thank you. Okay. If there are no questions, then I'll now proceed to the next item of business. We now turn to the resolutions to be put to the meeting. I'll move directly a poll -- move directly to a poll for all the remaining items of business. If there is anyone here who believes they are entitled to vote, but they have not registered to vote, please raise your hand for assistance. Okay. Persons entitled to vote are all shareholders, representatives and attorneys of shareholders and proxy holders who hold green admission cards like the one on the screen. On the back of your admission card, there is a voting card and instructions. Proxy holders have a summary of proxy votes attached to their admission card, which details the voting instructions for the items of business. In respect to any open votes, you need to mark the box beside each motion and indicate how you wish to cast your open votes. Shareholders also need to mark the box inside or beside each motion to indicate how you wish to cast your votes. Please ensure you print your name, and you also sign the voting card. At the end of the formal business, please lodge your completed voting card in the ballot box to ensure that your votes are counted. All right. Ordinary resolutions 1 and 2 relate to the reelection of directors. The first resolution relates to me, so I will hand over proceedings to Robert.

Ordinary Resolution 1 relates to the reelection of Mr. William G. Hames, having retired in accordance with the company's constitution and being eligible, offers himself for reelection to be reelected as a Director of the company. The explanatory memorandum sets out Bill's credentials. The notice of meeting states that the other directors unanimously support the resolution. The proxy votes for this resolution are as shown on the slide. Are there any questions from shareholders on this resolution? Are there any questions on the online platform?

No.

Thank you. I'll now put the motion. Please enter your vote on the voting paper for resolution 1, and then we will then move on to the next item of business. And please hold on to the paper for now. [Voting]

Thank you. I'll now hand back to William.

This is an auspicious day for elections. Right. Ordinary resolution relates to the reelection of Mr. Paul G Say, who, having retired in accordance with the constitution and being eligible, offers himself for reelection to be reelected as a Director of the company. The explanatory memorandum sets out Paul's credentials. The notice of the meeting states that the other directors unanimously support the resolution. The proxy votes for the resolution are also shown on the slide. Are there any questions from shareholders on this resolution? Are there any questions from the online platform? Are there any questions in regard to the reelection of Paul Say on the platform?

None.

Thank you. I will now put the motion. Please enter your vote on the voting paper for resolution 2, and we will then move on to the next item of business. Thank you. [Voting]

Resolution 3 relates to the company remuneration report. The report is set out in the directors' report on Pages 33 to 51 of the 2024 Annual Report. Further information on the Remuneration Report is contained in the explanatory memorandum, which is also attached to the notice of meeting. Following ongoing improvements made in the remuneration framework, we have received positive feedback from investors and proxy advisers. And hence, at last year's AGM, less than 3% of the shareholders voted against the remuneration report. As a summary of the significant matters dealt with during the year, they are set out on Page 33 of the 2024 annual report. Proxy votes received for this resolution are shown on the slide. Please note that directors, key management personnel and persons associated with them are not eligible to vote in favor of this resolution, and this is reflected in the proxy votes as shown. I now table the remuneration report and invite questions from shareholders that relate to it. If you're asking a question, please state your name, who you represent and then ask your question. No questions? Any questions from the online platform?

No questions online.

Thank you very much. I now put the following resolution to the meeting that the remuneration report that forms part of the directors' report for the financial year of 30th June 2024, be adopted. Shareholders are advised that the vote on this resolution is advisory only and does not bind the directors of the company. Please enter your vote on the voting paper for resolution 3, and we will then move to the next item of business. [Voting]

Ordinary Resolution 4 requests shareholders' approval for the issue of 30,069 Zero-Priced options to the Managing Director or his nominee under the deferred STI plan for the 2024 financial year. Full details of the deferred STI plan are set out in the explanatory memorandum. The directors, other than Mr. Blackburne, recommend that shareholders vote in favor of Resolution 4. Mr. Blackburne makes no recommendation in respect to resolution 4 due to his personal interest in the outcome. Proxy votes received for the resolution are shown on the slide. Are there any questions from the shareholders in regard to this item? Any questions from the online platform?

No questions on this item.

Thank you. Thank you. I will now put the motion. Please enter your vote in the voting paper for resolution 4. [Voting]

Ordinary Resolution 5 requests shareholders' approval for the issue of 167,672 performance rights to the Managing Director or his nominee under the LTI plan, long-term incentive plan, for the 2025 financial year. Full details of the LTI plan are set out in the explanatory memorandum. The directors, other than Mr. Blackburne, recommend that shareholders vote in favor of resolution 5. Mr. Blackburne makes no recommendation in respect to this resolution 5 due to his personal interest in the outcome. Proxy votes received for the resolution are shown on the slide. Are there any questions from shareholders on this item? Anything from the online platform?

No questions on this item.

Thank you. I will now put the motion. Please enter your vote on the voting paper for resolution 5. If there -- and there is one more resolution to go so we're nearly there. [Voting]

Ordinary Resolution 6 relates to the proposed change of Auditor. The notice of meeting contains a shareholder nomination for EY, and the explanatory memorandum sets out the reason for the proposed change. EY has provided its consent to the appointment subject to shareholder approval. If ordinary resolution 6 is passed, the appointment of EY will take effect at the conclusion of this meeting. Proxy votes received for the resolution are shown on the slide. Are there any questions from the shareholders in regard to this item? Any questions from the online platform?

No questions on this item.

Thank you. I will now put the motion. Please enter your vote on the voting paper for resolution 6. Now please sign the form at the bottom. And when you've completed your voting, please hand your voting cards to or in for collection, and Computershare personnel will come around and collect them. Right.

Next, we move on to questions. I will now consider general questions from the shareholders regarding the performance and management of the company that they may wish to ask the Board and management. Firstly, I will deal with any questions from the floor and then consider online questions that came before or during the meeting. Right. Any questions from the floor? Go on. There's got to be something.

What does QIC stand for?

Queensland Investment Corporation. They are a fund manager with a large portfolio of shopping centers around the country. And they -- around the shopping centers, as you know, shopping centers are transport-focused links. And around the country, everyone is trying to get people out of their cars, and they want to build more housing around shopping centers, and QIC has what I consider a lot of lazy land that they need a very good residential developer to partner with them. Right. And Robina will be the first. All right. Any other questions? What about from...

Yes, Mr. Chairman, there's a number of questions online.

Yes.

The first one is from John Ferguson who you know. He was formerly with the Australian Shareholders' Association. Here's 2 questions. And the first one is, why is the AGM not held in a hybrid format?

So, I can answer that, Paul. So, the format is hybrid in that it's here in person and live online. There is no online voting facility, but there is the ability to see the AGM online and to ask questions as we're getting now. We've looked at the online voting facility, but the cost was significant. And given the low number of shareholders that are expected to use that facility, we just didn't think the cost benefit was there, but we'll continue to review that in coming years.

In fact, I can clarify that. We did use that facility in the past. So our experience was that very few shareholders actually used the online facility for voting. And the second question regards -- is in regards to return on equity.

Sorry. Regard to?

Return on equity.

Yes.

Which John points out has averaged 7.7% over the past 5 years. And is asking how this can be improved?

So yes, we're very focused on getting back to double-digit ROE, and we have a good pathway to do that. Return metrics, including return on equity, were impacted by the significant rise in costs that we experienced across our projects. With that cost growth moderating and the pricing of our products improving quite strongly in most jurisdictions, we're seeing restoration of our project margins and those return metrics. And the medium term looks good in this regard in terms of getting back to those stronger return on equity numbers.

We have 2 questions from Steven Mayne, report, the first question is, which of the 5 proxy advisers in the Australian market being, ACSI, Ownership Matters, Glass Lewis, ISS and the Australian Shareholders Association, issued a report ahead of our meeting? And did any of them recommend a vote against any of today's resolutions? And I can answer that.

Yes. Go on.

So we had 2 proxy advisers reports before the meeting, one from Glass Lewis and one from ISS. And all of the resolutions were supported by both of those proxy advisers. And another question from Steven Mayne. Has the appointment of administrators to most divisions of the CFMEU construction division had an impact on Cedar Woods? And how do we find the CFMEU to deal with on apartment buildings?

Go again.

Yes, I'm happy to take that one. So Cedar Woods' products generally -- or our built form products are generally lower density as in the apartments that we deliver tend to be around 7 or 8 stories, but occasionally higher. So the builders that we use around the country don't, as a general rule, use unionized labor. So we're those smaller Tier 2 and Tier 3 builders, that don't have a unionized workforce. So it's really not something we discuss as a company and the impact has been negligible.

No more questions.

No more questions?

Yes.

Okay. If there are no more questions, I advise that the results of the poll will be published on the ASX and on our website after the meeting. Thank you for your attendance. I now declare the meeting closed, and I look forward to having a conversation over a coffee with you.