Cembra Money Bank AG (CMBN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 16, 2022

SIX Swiss Exchange CH Financials Consumer Finance earnings 43 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Cembra Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Paul, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] The conference must now be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Mr. Holger Laubenthal, CEO of Cembra Money Bank. Please go ahead, gentlemen.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#2

Yes. Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Pleased to be here. I am here with my partners, Pascal Perritaz, CFO; and Volker Gloe, Chief Risk Officer. We look forward to walking you through this presentation this morning and then also, of course, your questions and look forward to a lively discussion. So let me start with the overview on the year, and this is really in line with what we presented and discussed in December as well. A few key messages. So first, we obviously have had a challenging environment around all of us. But within that, I'm pleased to be able to report record net income of CHF 161.5 million due to resilient business performance really across the board, which is a 6% increase over prior year. Second, at the first half, we expressed that we were dissatisfied with the reduction of assets. We've intensified our efforts here, pleased to be able to report that we've been able to stabilize these. Third, the strong rebound in the cards business, which we also talked about in December. The fees are up 7%. That also confirms the robustness of that business. Fourth, continued excellent loss performance at 0.8%. And lastly, we're also pleased to report a dividend increase to CHF 3.85 per share on the back of strong earnings and a solid capital position. So that's the overview. Well let me spend a few minutes on the market on the next page. So both the personal loans and the auto markets have been flat. Various factors, COVID impact, some continued consumer restraint, as we also talked about, continued supply chain challenges on the auto market. We've had our share in the auto business in the second half as well in personal loans, really stemming from the task force we mentioned already that we implemented and the rated asset stabilization. Cards transaction volumes in the market have increased noticeably back to 2019 levels, and we've performed well here with the number of cards up 4% and stable market share. Last not least, fourth area, buy now pay later. We discussed this in December, strong growth in some of the underlying markets, e-commerce market here, and our billing volumes are up 25%. So good -- very good progress on this front. And then overall, as we look back and then also forward into the year, we're optimistic about the market outlook, particularly with the continued lifting of restrictions and the proven ability of our businesses to rebound. Let me spend a few minutes on the operational highlights for this last year. And look, there's clearly been a couple of challenges and setback with Migros. We're also shown that we can deliver in tough times in terms of the net income. And then with the conclusion of our strategic review, we've prepared the foundation for growth going forward. A few things I'd highlight. The discipline on cost and risks have really paid off well for us. As I said, we've been able to stabilize assets in the second half in personal loans. Auto and cards have shown solid performance. Good recovery in card commissions since May. And then look, strong momentum in Swissbilling, quite excited about this business, as we said, and we won some key partnerships there. We've also made considerable progress in our card transition program. We talked to you about this in August. We reiterated where we stood in December. And again, today, we can confirm that we're on track for this program to deliver, and we're pleased with the continued focus on sustainability in terms of strong ESG ratings and performance metrics. So overall, strong performance against some headwinds and really positioning ourselves well to benefit from the continued recovery with the strategic review that we conducted and optimistic outlook for the year. So with that, let me hand over to Pascal for the next section.

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#3

Thank you, Holger, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with reinforcing what Holger just said. Despite almost 5 months of economic restrictions on both domestic consumptions and international travels in 2021, we delivered a robust and resilient business performance in all our businesses and our assets in personal loans have also stabilizes for the second half of the year. We are very pleased with our excellent loss performance and the increase of commission and fees driven mainly first by the rebound of our credit card fees in the second half of the year and by the growth in revenues in our buy now pay later activities with our subsidiary, Swissbilling. We can start 2022 with good confidence. Let's dig deeper into the numbers. We provided a trading update at our Investor Day on December 7, and I'm pleased to report that our P&L financial results are at the upper end of the range we disclosed. Net income of CHF 161.5 million at the upper range of the CHF 159 million, CHF 162 million. EPS of CHF 5.50 at the upper range of CHF 5.40 to CHF 5.50. And net revenue of CHF 487 million at the upper range of CHF 482 million, CHF 487 million. The total net revenue declined by 2% for the full year, respectively, as a plus 1% increase for the second half of the year after 5% reductions reported in the first 6 months. Interest income declined by 5% due to lower asset base in personal loans. Interest expense was 3% lower, driven by lower funding. Commission and fees income increased by 7% to CHF 130.3 million, following the rebound that began in May 2021. Income from credit card fees increased by 13% for the 12 months. The total operating expense declined slightly from CHF 247 million to CHF 246 million, and I will further comment on the expense later in my presentations. And the provisions for losses decreased by 29% to CHF 40.3 million due to an excellent underlying loss performance as well as the one-off sale of our previous written of financing receivables. This results in a loss rate of 0.6%, and adjusted for this one-off, the loss rate was 0.8% compared to 0.9% in 2020. Volker will further comment on the loss performance later. On the return on financing receivables. At the Investor Day, we said that we will introduce a new alternative reference metric with this return on financing receivables or net margin. Let's repeat why we are introducing this new metric. In the past, we mainly commented on the yield development as an indication for margin development, but margin again, is the sum of several components, pricing yield, acquisitions costs, interest expense, provision for losses, operating expense, taxes. And with this closure, we decomposed our profit by source to better explain the movements in our net margin. So you can see here, our margin improved from 2.3% to 2.5%, driven by the increase in commission and fees mainly from the credit card fees in the second half of the year. We'll further comment later and basically as the strong loss performance. Now let's talk about the net financing receivables, the interest income and the yield. The net financing receivables amounted to CHF 6.2 billion, a decline of 1% compared to year-end 2020. Interest income declined by 5% from CHF 402 million to CHF 383 million. In the personal loan business, receivables declined by 5%. This decrease was mainly attributed to the lower [Audio Gap] compared to 7.4% in 2020 and 7.1% at H1 2021. The net financing receivables in auto lease and loan declined by 1%, and the interest income edged up by to 1% to CHF 130.1 million with a yield stable. And in cards business, the net financing receivables increased by 6% as a result of the recovery that began in the second half of the year and the interest income in cards increased slightly, up 1%, with the yield stable as well. Now let's talk about the cards transaction volume and the card revenues. The card transaction volume increased by 13% in 2021, respectively, 8% compared to 2019 or pre-COVID level. As you can see, the first on the right side -- bottom right side, the first 4 month of 2021 were impacted by the economic lockdown, and volume increased above pre-COVID-19 since May, driven by the lifting of the travel restrictions and the increasing international volumes. On the bottom, though, let's talk about the card net revenue. During that period, the interest income remain -- in the card business remained very stable, driven by resilient interest-bearing assets. And the card commission and fees rose by 13% for the full year, respectively. Minus 4% was for the first 6 months and plus 29% for the second half of the year. As you can see on the page, the revenue gap compared to the pre-COVID level narrowed this May, and we have seen an increase in international volume due to lifting of the traveler restrictions. We are confident with the recovery of the credit card revenue in the post COVID world. In December, the emergence of the new COVID variant, Omicron, and the introductions of new economic restrictions had a temporary impact on the card revenues, again, slightly below the level pre-COVID. Let's move to operating expense. The operating expense declined slightly from CHF 247.4 million to CHF 246.3 million and the cost income raised to 50.6% due to the lower revenue compared to 49.8% in 2020. With the results announcement in summer last year in July, we reported a disappointing cost/income ratio of 52.6%, driven by temporary lower revenue. And for the last 6 months of the year and following the gradual revenue recoveries, we achieved a cost/income ratio of 48.6% for the last 6 months. Compensation and benefits expense increased by CHF 2.7 million, and the increase is mainly due to higher average salaries and one-off organizational changes. At the end of December 2021, the number of employees was 916, a decline of 12 compared to 2020 and a decline of 47 FTEs compared to 2019. Costs from professional services, stable. Marketing expense were down 26%. This is largely due to the closure of the Cembra SME business and new product launch, so higher marketing spend in 2020, and obviously offset with some higher customer acquisitions and asset generations in 2021. Collection and fees decreased by 10%. Cost for postage and stationary increased by 7%, and this is mainly due to higher postage for asset generations campaign and card plastic productions costs. Rental expense declined by 14% related to branch closures as well as renegotiation of rental contracts. IT costs of CHF 41.4 million were 6% higher. This increase was due to the expense for digitizations projects and include also some due diligence activities related to our strategic initiative of strategic program operation excellence. And finally, depreciation and amortizations was 6% lower, mainly due to previous investments reaching end of life. Let me finish this sections with our overall approach to expense management. During the COVID period, we carefully assessed our discretionary spend and take necessary measures to address lower revenues, but without jeopardizing our long-term strategic investments and ambitions. And as always, we remain disciplined in our approach to cost management, which is part of our Cembra DNA. In the context of our strategy execution announced in December, we expect the cost/income ratio to remain stable in 2022. Let's move now to the balance sheet. As already mentioned, net financing receivables amounted to CHF 6.2 billion, a decline of 1%, and this was mainly driven by the extended impact of the COVID-19 on consumer financing needs. The funding decrease is in line as with the decline in the financing receivables and the cash. The equity increased by 6%, driven by the ways in retained earnings and the dividend payment of CHF 110 million in April 2021. Let's dig deeper into the net financing receivables and basically comparison first half of the year versus second half of the year. The net financing receivables of CHF 6.2 billion was lower than the range of [ 62.5 ], [ CHF 3.6 billion ] we gave in the Investor Day as part of our trading update. P loan and auto assets were in line with our assumptions and the cards were slightly lower. Let me explain what we observed in the cards assets at the second half of the year. So the overall card assets were flat at H2. The good news is that the interest-bearing assets increased and basically also offset by reductions in transactional assets. The transactional assets represent the total balance of invoice at the end of the period, which are within the grace period, meaning the period between the date of issuance of the invoice and the date of the payment -- the day the payment is due. And during that period, obviously, we, of course, not charge interest. These assets are more volatile, for example, when the date of the end of the period is during a weekend or a banking holidays. Now obviously, if you don't pay the amount you owe in the full by the due date, we will then charge interest on the remaining balance, and they are interest-bearing assets, and we observed during the COVID-19 that these assets are stable, resilient, and this is why the reasons the card interest income has even though slightly increased during the COVID-19. We already mentioned before, the personal loan at the second half of the year stabilized, and with the launch of the task force to aggressively address the drop we had in personal loan assets at H1. And finally, auto. I would summarize as a strong performance in auto in spite of continued supply change challenges. Few comments on the funding. The group funding portfolio declined by 3% to CHF 5.7 billion. This is largely in line with lower asset base and cash. Overall, funding mix remained largely stable, 56%, deposits and 44% non-deposit. The weighted average duration decreased slightly to 2.5% (sic) [ 2.5 years ] and the period end funding cost amounted to 44 basis points compared to 45 in 2020. We have a well-diversified funding portfolio with diversified maturity bucket to manage those sensitivity for higher rates. As of December 2021, the group maintained CHF 400 million of undrawn at committed facilities and on the 21st December 2021, we issued a CHF 200 million senior unsecured bond at 100% with maturity of 7 years and a coupon at [ 041 75 ] percentage. Now I would like to hand over to Volker to comment on this excellent loss performance.

Volker Gloe

executive
#4

Yes. Thank you, Pascal. As already shown in the P&L, Cembra can report a very good loss performance for the year 2021 with a loss rate of 0.6%, which translates into absolute numbers for loss provisions of CHF 40.3 million. This is fully in line with the trading update that we gave in December. As we highlighted already under the earnings release for the first half of the year 2021, the loss provisions are impacted by a one-off effect that I quickly want to remind on. We sold in the first quarter a portfolio of previously written off assets as a pool of loss certificates to a third party. And what such a sale does is to accelerate the expected recovery flow of the future into a onetime payment in the financial period. The proceeds of this sale amounted to CHF 8.2 million, which then as additional recoveries impact the loss provision of the year 2021 positively. What I want to highlight, though, is that even when we normalize or after normalizing for this one-off effect, the loss rate would have been at 0.8%, which is still a good number and certainly in line with the guidance that we have been giving in the past. It also illustrates the continued resilience of the business as also asset quality metrics like delinquencies or NPLs remain very solid. 30-plus delinquencies came in at 1.6%, and the NPL ratio came in at 0.6%, and both metrics slightly better than in the year before. In 2021, the bank could still benefit from the measures that were taken back in 2020 to prevent any adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While these specific actions might have been reversed in the meantime, the generally diligent approach towards credit risk taking remains part of our DNA. Consequently, we communicated and now I also want to reiterate the loss rate target level of less or equal than 1%. And with that, I hand it then back to Pascal to update us on the capital position.

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#5

Thank you, Volker, for this very strong loss performance. On the capital side though, we remain very well capitalized with a strong Q1 capital ratio of 18.9%. As already mentioned before, shareholders' equity increased by 6% due to the retained earnings as well as the payout of the dividend of CHF 110 million in April '21. Given this robust financial performance, sound capital positions and a record net income, the Board of Directors will propose a dividend of CHF 3.85 per share, which represents a 70% payout ratio at the next General Meeting on 21st April 2022, which translates into a 3% or CHF 0.10 increase compared to last year. Thank you. And I would like now to hand over to Holger for the 2022 priorities as well as outlook.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#6

Great. Thanks, Pascal. So on the next page here, you'll see -- on the left side, you will recognize this from our Capital Markets Day, right? And so just to reiterate the substance of our strategy. Four programs. First, operational excellence which is about 2 things, a simpler operating model and renewing our technology stack, to drive both efficiency and significant customer value enhancements. Deliver CHF 30 million of annual cost base reduction and contribute to the cost income ratio below 39% by 2026. Secondly, accelerating our core businesses, which is around improving customer experience and digitization, further differentiating our offerings. Also tapping into new growth opportunities with Swissbilling, in combination of these delivering both asset growth as well as increase in commission and fees. And then all this underpinned by cultural transformation with a customer-first mindset and a more agile and learning organization. So you've seen this. You've also seen what's on the right. This is a subset of the initiatives that we are executing to implement this strategy. And it's obviously a focus on 2022. So I'll just pick a few here to highlight what we're looking to achieve and what's already ongoing. Operational excellence. We're going to launch our mobile banking solution in cards later this quarter. We're also getting ready for the rollout of the new leasing platform through the year with the rollout towards the end of the year. We're making our operating model simpler in personal loans. There are some auto customer journey enhancements that are going live. We talked about the card transition program with proprietary propositions and new partnerships, and growth in buy now pay later, as we've talked about before, with new merchants onboarding and some product extensions. On the cultural side, we did roll out our new organization structure as discussed. We've aligned the teams and we're now fully poised to dive into execution. So we go to the next page. In terms of the outlook, look, we expect continued resilient performance as we go through the year. We shared our priorities and deliverables and these will allow us to take advantage of the post COVID rebound with our businesses having proven resilience and ability to rebound coming out of these phases from lockdowns. We've also shared with you our targets through 2026 with the ROE rebounding to 15% or more as of 2024. Dividend growth in line with sustainable earnings growth and continued strong loss performance, as Volker talked about. So that's pretty much all we had for now. Quick takeaways, I think sound business performance to build on as we transition from '21 to '22. The simplification of our operating model, IT transformation has started. Pleased to confirm our transition program for cards is on track. We've launched initiatives to increase customer focus and differentiation and ready to seize growth opportunities. So with that, back over to the operator, and we'll look forward to taking your questions.

Operator

operator
#7

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Máté Nemes from UBS.

Mate Nemes

analyst
#8

I have a couple of questions, please. Firstly, could you perhaps comment on foreign spend on credit cards? I think you showed that transaction volumes are now above pre-COVID, about 2019 levels. Certainly, that's what seems to be the case in the second half of the year. But I'm just wondering how has the mix shifted in better -- perhaps in December, maybe in January, you're seeing any improvement on foreign spend on credit cards. Secondly, a question on personal loans. Just the back-of-the-envelope math seems to indicate to me that you've seen a slight improvement in yield on personal loans in the second half of the year. If you could confirm that and then maybe elaborate on the reasons for that. Then a question on the auto market. You clearly mentioned that you see supply chain challenges perhaps an obstacle to growth. Have you seen any easing in those supply chain challenges at all in December or year-to-date? Do you see auto supply from OEMs or distributors improving? And finally, a question on loss rate, given the still very cautious new lending, at least in H1 last year, is it fair to assume that the underlying loss rate for 2022 should be still quite close to the 0.8% that you reported this year?

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#9

Yes, Máté, thanks for the questions. Let me take the one on the auto market first, if I may, and then I'll hand over to Pascal for the foreign spend, the yield and Volker for the loss rate. So on the auto market, you're right. The supply chain challenge has obviously been a topic last year, and we -- frankly, we do see them continuing into this year. And I think that's echoed by -- if you read the commentary from importers, distributors alike. Now I think the good news is, from our perspective, we're mostly in the -- one, we're most in the used car segment. And shortage on the new car has actually pushed up used car prices a bit. And so that's helped our average ticket size from that perspective. I think, Máté, I'd say we're optimistic in terms of this market. We've always said we like it. I think we've shown good performance in the second half. We expect good and resilient performance going through this year. And then again, with the improvements we're making around the operating model and the system there, I think some exciting prospects ahead as we exit this year and then head into 2023. That's what I'd say on the auto market, and I'll hand over to Pascal on the 2 other questions, later to Volker.

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#10

So thank you, Máté as well. On the foreign spend so in the card business, obviously, as we start to see the lifting of the travel restrictions already in April, May as of last year. And if you can see on this Page #10, as with the card transactions volume, it's quite clear that the increase in volumes observed since April and May are largely driven by the increase in international spend, which ultimately has a transfer into the narrowing of the revenue gap though we had compared to pre-COVID level, as you can see, although on the bottom side. But we don't disclose although the split between the domestic and international spend on our card volumes. But obviously, the drivers, as I said, is all for these reductions in the revenue gap respectively as the growth in the transaction volume is also driven also by this effect. Look, just a lot to remind on the yield. We had basically -- on the yield in the p loan business, we had a 7.4% yield in 2020. At H1 of 2021, although 2021, although we had a 7.1% and we finished the year at 7%. I would like to repeat once again, although that the yield is also needs to be seen in the context of the overall development of the net margin. So first, on the yield side in personal loan, there is a continued lower consumer demand for higher pricing, but there is also a change in portfolio mix following the cashgate acquisitions. As an example, now we have homeowners who are offering with APR at 4.9%, but also at very low loss -- very good as a loss performance. This is why though we introduced the concept of net margin or return on financing receivables as pricing is only part of the story, and the net margin improved compared to 2020.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#11

Volker, do you want to take the last question?

Volker Gloe

executive
#12

Yes, I'll comment briefly on the losses. And you're absolutely right, Máté, when -- in the beginning of 2020, the pandemic came, we were extra cautious in our new lending policies just to be prepared in case any unexpected developments would materialize. I think what should be mentioned though is that we started lifting these literally underwriting restrictions late in 2020, continuing also in the first half of 2021, more so more the stepwise and cautious approach. And all things being equal, this should also lead to that over time, the loss rate will gradually move back to the year, pre-COVID levels, longer-term levels, around 1% loss rate in total for the business. But what I want to highlight, though, is that this is a development that will not happen from one moment to another, because it takes some time until the credit risk is actually materializing into losses when you are writing the new volume. So over the next 1 or 2 years, we should move back to the levels that we have been seeing before. But we're also kind of still confident enough to say that the loss rate target level is yes, less or equal than 1%. So it will gradually move.

Operator

operator
#13

The next question comes from the line of Daniel Regli from Credit Suisse.

Daniel Regli

analyst
#14

I have a quick follow up on personal loans. Can you maybe talk a bit about your growth expectations for this year? I think if I take the numbers correctly, receivables were again down slightly in H2. And then secondly, can you maybe...

Operator

operator
#15

Mr. Regli, your line is muted.

Daniel Regli

analyst
#16

Yes, excuse me, I had a call coming in. Then maybe quickly on the FTE number, can you maybe -- I just saw that this was down in H2 by 2%. Is this already, let's say, a consequence you made out of the news we had during the year? Or is this just natural fluctuations?

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#17

Yes. Thanks, Dan. Thanks for the question. So I'll take the personal loan question and then hand over to Pascal for the FTE. Look, personal loans last year, I'd say 2 distinctly different halves, right? First half was quite disappointing. As I said, we have been able to stabilize second half, so significantly better than the first half, a slight reduction as you're saying. I think on the outlook, and I would broaden this a bit, if I may, the business overall, right? Look, we expect the businesses and we have the ambition for the businesses to grow in line with the broader consumer economy and the market, and that's the outlook here. We've also always said, as you know, right, that we do not want to buy our sales growth, right? We're cautious on that, given our market positions. But we do expect to evolve in line with the markets heading, where the consumer economy is heading across the products. Let me hand over to Pascal for the FTE question.

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#18

Look, indeed, as all the FTE has already reduced from the first half of the year to the second half of the year at the end of June, so we had 934 FTEs, and now the 916. Not related at all to the strategic activities we are doing. It's more a cautious approach to cost management, carefully assessing our discretionary spend and also taking the necessary measures in the context of low revenues. So in that sense, although nothing strategic, it's more part of the day-to-day business.

Operator

operator
#19

The next question comes from the line of Andreas Venditti from Vontobel.

Andreas Venditti

analyst
#20

Maybe one on the yields in general. Maybe you can provide an outlook by business there. Then another one in terms of funding. I've seen that the term has come down again, maybe there as well. What we should expect in this regard? Maybe a smaller one on expenses. You mentioned some one-off charges in -- on the slide -- on one of the slides. Can you maybe quantify that?

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#21

Yes. Thank you for the questions. And Pascal, do you want to take these?

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#22

Yes. So we refer to the one-off organization change in the OpEx side roughly there was an increase. There was an increase of around a slight a bit lower than CHF 3 million. Compensation and benefits. So it's a mix between the average salaries represent around CHF 1 million, and the difference, the rest being as through more one-off impacts regarding organization changes. The second questions around the yield. Look, and, once again, I know I repeat, but we are looking at more and more on the net margin -- at the net margin level. Meaning, so looking at pricing, obviously, the pricing is a very important component, but also looking at the -- after the risk of the cost allocations, because we might have simply the customer segments with low pricing, but excellent loss performance, which, in total, will make a lot of sense for the bank to underwrite. So of course, generally, if I think about the year ago for p loan, it would be as though we would be able to stay around the 7%, but highly depending ultimately on the mix -- on the business mix and, of course, in the competition environment. Cards remain -- is expected to remain broadly stable. And the auto business, despite competitions, we would expect to, basically, to stay within the level we are, but again, depending on the competition's level. Finally on the funding side. First, once again, we are pleased with the diversified and balanced funding profile we have today. In that sense, we also have slightly the negative duration gap, which is certainly favorable, in the context of possible interest increase in the future, but I wouldn't expect this to continue to reduce so much.

Operator

operator
#23

The next question comes from the line of Michael Kunz from ZKB.

Michael Kunz

analyst
#24

Yes. Two quick questions, please. On Page 19, you have your financial targets until 2026. I cannot detect the payout ratio there. Is this kind of -- has been deliberately dropped? Or is this still implicitly valid if you want to grow the dividend in line with your earnings? And the second question refers to the appendix. On Slide 27, you mention that you will switch to calculating expected credit losses instead of the current allowance loss calculation. Could you elaborate a little bit more on that one? What it means in detail?

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#25

Yes. Thank you for the question. So I'll hand over to Pascal in a second on the payout ratio, and then Volker on the CECL question that you raised. Look -- I mean this year, right, as we just discussed, the Board is proposing CHF 3.85 that gets us to, I believe, 70%. And we've confirmed how we think about the dividend going forward, right, increasing in line with sustainable earnings growth. Perhaps Pascal, a word on the payout ratio to that.

Pascal Perritaz

executive
#26

Yes. So as we discussed during the Investor Day on December 7, although there is no payout target anymore. Indeed, as in the past, we have 60% to 70%. So we pay out last year 72%, this year, 70%. And the dividend outlook, as always, the way we have defined as always, clearly, expected to be at least now CHF 3.85 in 2022. And then from 2023, we intend to increase the dividend based on the sustainable earnings growth, subject to a minimum of the prior dividend per share. So no guidance anymore on the payout ratio.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#27

Excellent.

Volker Gloe

executive
#28

Yes. And then thank you for the question on CECL. It's a bit of a technical topic. It's about kind of the models that are used to calculate the allowances for losses. And for us in Cembra, the new method of calculating it becomes applicable according to the U.S. GAAP standards from the beginning of 2023 on. And the difference is the following, that they're currently using an incurred loss concept for calculating the allowances. In the future, it's an expected loss concept. So it is more forward-looking and have simply different models behind on how to calculate it. Without going too much in the technicalities of it, I think the impact of it is that the reserve balances or the allowance for losses will, on the 1st of January 2023, under the implementation of it, increase. It doesn't impact the loss provision afterwards as a P&L metric under U.S. GAAP, but it has an impact on the starting balance of the year 2023. And the impact that we currently calculate is between CHF 50 million and CHF 70 million. It doesn't mean anything for the credit quality of the portfolio itself. It's just a pure accounting thing.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#29

Operator, any other questions?

Operator

operator
#30

There are no more questions on the phone at this time.

Holger Laubenthal

executive
#31

Good. Well, then, look, let me just briefly wrap up. And firstly, thanks, everyone, for dialing in. I think, look, 2021, strong performance. We're pleased with the record net income. We are excited about the strategy that we worked on and that we've set out for us to execute on. Simplification of operating model IT transformation has kicked off. Our transition program for cards is on track. We can confirm that again today, we've got initiatives ongoing in terms of increasing customer focus and product differentiation. And we're poised to seize growth opportunities and look forward to the year and updating you on our initiatives as we go along. So thanks, again, and we'll talk to you soon.

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