Cementos Argos S.A. (CEMARGOS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being here with us today to discuss our Third Quarter's Results. My name is Indira Diaz. I am Cementos Argos IRO, and I will be hosting today's call. On the call today are Juan Esteban Calle, CEO; and Felipe Aristizabal, our CFO; Maria Isabel Echeverri, VP of Legal Affairs; Gustavo Uribe, the leader of Central America; and Carlos Yusty, the VP of the Colombia Division. First, I would like to ask you to carefully read the legal disclaimer that is currently being projected on the screen, which is also available on the presentation that is posted on our website. Please consider that all the discussions of the financial and operational results held during the call will be based on the adjusted figures, excluding nonrecurring and non-core operations. For a detailed reconciliation of the adjustments, please refer to the annexes of our presentation. [Operator Instructions] We will record this session and upload it to our web page. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Juan Esteban.

Thank you, Indira, and welcome to everyone joining us today. In 2024, we have prioritized delivering exceptional operational results and creating value for our shareholders and our outcomes so far are closely aligned with these strategic objectives. In terms of financial results for the 9 months of the year, our EBITDA totaled COP 887 billion, increasing 6.4% versus 2023. And our EBITDA margin stood at 22.2% above the guidance provided for the current year and expanding 235 basis points versus last year. These results are supported by a company-wide initiative called from the mine to the market, which seeks to enhance financial performance by analyzing and redesigning our entire value chain from limestone extraction and cement production to product commercialization. The result of this initiative have been impressive, especially considering that these gains in EBITDA, and EBITDA margin were achieved despite the challenging market conditions in Colombia. As we have discussed in previous calls, new housing sales in Colombia over the past year have decreased 57%, causing a reduction in the cement dispatches this year that was fully anticipated by the market, affecting our volumes sold locally and therefore, our consolidated results. In terms of volumes, the year-to-date consolidated cement and ready mix dispatches decreased 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively, when compared to last year, with most of the impact coming from Colombia. Now it is important to mention that the sales of new houses have improved this year in Colombia, by 23%, which together with the inflation softening and the reduction in the mortgage rate should lead to a stabilization in the cement demand in the short term, and regain its upward trend in the near future given the macro fundamentals of the country. Once the market starts recovering, Argos will be a much leaner and agile company totally ready to take advantage of the expanding demand. We recognize the challenges of the current market conditions that have limited our short-term top line growth, which is why we have successfully reinvented and adapted to the situation. Nevertheless, we firmly believe that Cementos Argos is a robust company well equipped to save the opportunity in an industry with strong secular fundamentals. Despite short-term turbulence, we believe the building materials sector remains highly attractive for capital deployment and value generation, particularly in the Americas where we are well positioned to capture future growth. Turning to our investment in cement materials, as highlighted by their CEO in last Thursday's conference call, we remain confident in the potential of this enhanced platform. Integration with Argos U.S.A. assets is progressing as planned with a firm annual target of COP 40 million in synergies. However, quarterly results, particularly in the cement segment were impacted by adverse weather conditions and moderating demand. Now in relation to our reported net income figures, it is essential to note that the results that not fully capture the potential benefit that could ultimately be recognized as 2024 is a transitional year for us. First, the equity method figures representing 31% of Summit's net income are affected this year by certain nonrecurring expenses related to the integration process. Second, while synergy capture is progressing well operations have yet to normalize. And we still see further opportunities for improvement. Additionally, we are advancing our deleveraging efforts by the 2024 figures do not yet reflect the structural reduction in financial expenses, we aim to accomplish. We expect that by 2025, these reductions will contribute positively to net income. Before moving on, in greater detail on each region, I would like to invite Felipe to discuss on the advances on our SPRINT program and the value creation for our shareholders.

Thank you, Juan, and good morning, everyone. With the inclusion of our shares in the MSCI and FTSE indices during the third quarter of this year, and as announced in our February earnings call, we can confidently say that we have fully met the commitments outlined in SPRINT 2.0. Nonetheless, we see this program as an ongoing effort, and we'll continue to analyze the needs of the market to strengthen and propose new initiatives that generate value for our shareholders. Now I'd like to highlight and emphasize the achievements of SPRINT 2.0. First, our year-to-date EBITDA margin stands at 22.2% above the guidance for the current year. Our shareholders have approved COP 585 billion in dividends, 30% more than last year, of which we have already distributed COP 380 billion. On the share buyback program, we have already executed a total of COP 340 billion, of which COP 300 billion have been executed this year. We continue to advance our market maker program with average trading volumes increasing 50% vis-a-vis last year. The integration with Summit in the U.S. advances as planned. We expect that following the first year of integration, Summit would deliver $40 million in recurring synergies with the overall amount reaching $130 million. Finally, inclusion to the FTSE and MSCI attracted total inflows to the stock of more than COP 600 billion. To date, the 3-month average daily liquidity stands at $3 million, approaching our current goal of sustaining an average level of $3 million to $5 million. Programs such as SPRINT and those to come reinforce our commitment to achieve best-in-class performance in the building materials sector, emphasizing operational profitability and value creation for our shareholders.

Thank you, Felipe, for your intervention. I would like to ask Carlos now to discuss further on the performance of Colombia, our [indiscernible] strategic view for the market.

Thank you, Juan, and good morning. During the third quarter, we continued to successfully deploy our strategic program from the mine to the market. that has allowed us to deliver best-in-class performance and to position ourselves as the most profitable player of the country by capturing 47% of the total EBITDA generated by the industry with an average market share of 35%. This percentage of EBITDA captured by the company has improved significantly during the last 3 years from 42% in 2021 to 47% in 2023 in the context of lower volumes due to the execution of our comprehensive program from the mine to the market. Within this program, we have focused on improving among other things, what we consider to be the 3 major profitable catalyst of the company. First, our value proposition focused on offering the highest quality products and match service has solidified our leadership position in the market. Second, the OEE that stands the overall equipment effectiveness and measures the reliability of the cement plants has increased by 10% during the last 2 years. And third, our production cost per ton have remained steady for 3 consecutive years, effectively absorbing inflationary pressures while optimizing fixed costs in line with the lower volumes. Now regarding the third quarter results, we achieved an EBITDA of COP 212 billion, the highest in the past 9 years, reflecting a 2% increase compared to last year. Of this EBITDA, we estimate that our efficiency program generated savings of COP 23.6 billion, primarily driven by the optimization in variable and logistic costs, which evidenced declines in order to -- of 9% and 6%, respectively, year-over-year. Notably, our EBITDA margin reached 28.5%, the highest since 2014. Expanding by 276 basis points year-over-year. Additionally, our EBITDA to free cash flow conversion stood at around 80%, last 12 months as of September, a significant improvement versus the last 3 years. It is important to highlight that these record results were achieved despite a challenging market environment. Industry-wide, volumes in Colombia declined by 5% in the third quarter compared to last year. Driven by a slow activity in the formal housing market and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, which continue to affect consumption and consequently, sales of bag cement for informal construction. At Argos, our cement and ready mix volumes fell by 12% and 3%, respectively, in line with the overall market contraction and our strategy of prioritizing profitability over volume. Furthermore, in September, a [indiscernible] led to road blockages across the country, impacting total dispatches. We estimate that these disruptions reduce our cement deliveries by approximately 15,000 tons. For the remainder of the year, we expect our results to continue to be strong, both in EBITDA generation and in EBITDA margin, supported by the continued execution of the program from the mine to the market that will allow us to achieve our best-in-class performance within a market that will continue to exceed a soft performance in terms of volumes. For the next year, taking into account several factors such as the new housing sales thus as September has increased 23% versus last year. The inflation softening that as of September accounts for 5.8% and is projected to continue this softening trend towards the year and a decrease in the interest rates of the Central Bank that currently stands at 9.75% we expect the cement dispatches to achieve either a flattish behavior versus the current year, mostly generated by the improvement in the informal housing dynamics. We also expect that infrastructure midsized projects are structured within the major cities of the country, plus other major projects such as the second Túnel de Oriente the Bogota Metro and [Idriango] will support the cement demand for the next year. We remain fully committed to provide very good results and prepare to properly serve our market in Colombia.

Thank you, Carlos. Now I would like to invite Gustavo to comment on the results of Central America and the Caribbean.

Thank you, Juan, and good morning, everyone. As you just mentioned, one of the key strengths of our regional presence lies in the diversification across various economies and cycles. This allows us to navigate challenging market conditions and achieve profitable, sustainable outcomes by leveraging on the opportunities created through the market complementarity. This quarter's results are no exception. Our ongoing focus on profitability and the fine-tuning of our business strategy across markets, aiming at achieving best-in-class performance drove our positive operational and financial results. Local markets recorded a 5.4% increase in volume dispatches, which combined with a stable year-over-year price environment resulted in a 1.5% price in revenues and a 14% increase in EBITDA generation. These results support an EBITDA margin of 24.4% for local markets with a notable 258 basis point expansion aligned with our program of efficiencies from the mine to the market. Let's review the progress made on some key initiatives we've previously discussed in some of our main markets. These initiatives are closely aligned with the objectives established in our efficiency programs and reinforce our positive outlook in the strategic markets where we operate. They will also help us capitalize on the opportunities emerging in the industry for the following years. In Central America, we are pursuing 2 major transformational projects. First, in Honduras, we installed a new [Portland dryer] that is scheduled to begin operations in the first half of 2025 and is expected to deliver savings of around $3 million per year. These savings will arise from a reduction of around 9% in the clinker cement factor, plus an increase in cement capacity of around 100,000 tons per year. Second, in Panama, we recently transformed our ready-mix business model and executed a dredge to the port terminal of [indiscernible], which allowed us to deliver a 2.1% EBITDA growth and 495 basis points margin expansion during the third quarter in a still challenging market context, with a newly elected government that is currently in a transitional phase that are therefore led to limited economic activity. On the other hand, Honduras exhibited during the quarter, a positive momentum in terms of volumes, expanding by 16.4%. This growth reflects increasing demand in the country as the 2025 presidential elections approach, along with the careful execution of our operational and commercial excellence strategy focused on maximizing profitability and delivering value to customers. In line with this performance, EBITDA increased by 9%. Though margins declined by 168 basis points. Looking ahead, efficiencies from the [indiscernible], along with other initiatives aimed at sustaining our top-tier OEE indicators will support our continued progress in the country. In total, Central America exhibited a solid EBITDA growth of 5.8% and a margin expansion of 228 basis points reaffirming the adequacy of our program of efficiencies and our strategic approach to the region. Now in the Caribbean, we are also executing some key projects. First, in Dominican Republic, our project has capacity expansion of the grinding station will start operations in early 2025, allowing us to increase our dispatches by close to 30% in the context of a sold-out market. And second, in Puerto Rico, we continue to carefully implement our program of efficiencies and to redefine our commercial strategy initiatives that have led to a volume growth of 6.5% during the quarter and a margin expansion of 555 basis points in the same period. In terms of financial results, in Dominican Republic, volumes rose 13% with stable costs and prices leading to an EBITDA expansion of 18% and a margin expansion of 103 basis points. In summary, the Caribbean exhibited a 28% EBITDA growth and 331 basis points of margin expansion during the third quarter, in line with the solid performance of its main markets. In summary, we remain optimistic about the results achieved this quarter and year-to-date across the region with EBITDA totaling $35 million, up 4.5% for the quarter and 10% year-to-date. The positive dynamics discussed along with our commitment to operational excellence through efficient, high-impact investments have driven sustained margin expansion throughout the year, and we expect these trends to continue during the last quarter of the year.

Thank you, Gustavo. Now moving to the balance statement. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 2.2x at the end of September, supported by the strong performance of our businesses and slightly affected by the dividend payments and this shared repurchase program that has entailed a significant cash outflow during the current year. For the remainder of the year, we are refining our CapEx target to our range between $80 million to $100 million, in line with the projects that are currently being executed and our forecast for the end of the year. As discussed during the call, we have implemented a series of strategic projects that address operational needs effectively without requiring substantial capital. Importantly, we remain committed to our other set of goals for the year and are on track to meet them all. We have successfully navigated a challenging quarter by achieving not only EBITDA expansion, but also significant improvement in the EBITDA margin derived from our program from the mine to the market. We have also delivered on every pillar of SPRINT 2.0 with outstanding result in the total shareholder return and in the liquidity of our shares. These outstanding results reinforce our commitment towards delivering best-in-class performance in the building materials industry throughout the Americas, emphasizing on operational profitability and value creation for our shareholders. Now before we move into the Q&A, I would like to take a moment to address the press release issued by Summit last week regarding the nonbinding acquisition proposal they have received. As mentioned in the release, Summit has held initial discussions with the interested party. They indicated that in consultation with their advisers, the Board will carefully evaluate the proposal and act in the best interest of the company and its shareholders. It is important to highlight that there is no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached and Summit will not be providing further comments on this matter until its Board has decided. For now, we cannot provide additional details. Indira, we can now proceed with the Q&A section.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Alejandra Obregon from Morgan Stanley.

I have 2 here. The first one is on Colombia. So as I look at the stronger performance of your export volumes versus the domestic volumes, I just wonder how much of the EBITDA benefit that you see in Colombia could be linked to volume and price/mix. So perhaps higher-priced exports to the U.S. are adding to the expansion here. So if you can comment on how much of your Colombia EBITDA per ton is supported by your shipments to the U.S. So that would be the first question. And then the second one, and apologies as this is perhaps to specific on the accounting front, but you're reporting an adjusted revenue in Colombia for 2023 that I think accounts for some adjustments for the U.S. combination. So just wondering if you can elaborate on what is this adjustment related to its COP 117 billion for the 9 months of 2023. So those are my 2 questions.

Thank you, Alejandra, for your question. I will take the first one. The reality is that we couldn't be happier with the performance of the business in Colombia. We are growing through difficult period of demand in the country, which in our opinion will not last forever. Our company is leaner and stronger and will benefit in a significant way going forward once the demand start picking up. The margins for the local cement business in Colombia in the last quarter were in excess of 32%. So in reality what is supporting the expansion of the margins is basically the domestic market in spite of the lower volumes. So the reality is that we will continue to focus on our value generation strategy. We are extremely disciplined with our prices, and we will continue deploying the strategy from the mine to the market, which is providing us with excellent results so far. Regarding your second question, I will ask Felipe to provide further details.

Alejandra, so essentially, the adjustments that we include in the pro forma financials, basically correspond to expenses that are nonrecurring and are a result of the separation of Argos USA. So basically, what we're doing here is we are presenting the results on a like-for-like basis in order to make more sound comparisons between the last year's results and this year's results.

Next question comes from Marcello Furlan from Itau.

Can you hear me?

Yes, Marcello. Perfect.

Okay. I have 2 here, the first is related to margin expansion in Colombia. You guys are delivering this 26% margins in accumulated figures. So I'd like to understand in front of the cost initiatives that the company has made so far and expectations of high volumes for 2025 if you guys expect some margin improvement for 2025 from this level? So this is my first question. The second one is related to the cost initiatives in the Central America and the Caribbean regions. If you guys could provide a little bit more color in terms of what were the main or what has been the main cost initiatives for this region. So these are my 2 questions.

Thank you, Marcello. We are confident that the volumes will start improving in Colombia. If you look at the per capita consumption. I mean we are like in the low 200 kilos per capita and the infrastructure and the housing needs in Colombia are huge. So the reality is that we foresee 2025, as Carlos mentioned, as a transitional year, but demand should start picking up in 2026 going forward. With the margins that we've achieved in our business in Colombia in the last quarter, very close to 30%. I mean the reality is that we continue expecting to see margins in Colombia expanding in 2025 because the strategy from the mine to the market. It is still in implementation. As Carlos mentioned, things are looking extremely positive for us. I don't know, Carlos, if you would like to add some additional color on our strategy in Colombia. Carlos, are you there. Would you like to provide Marcello with some additional information about our strategy from the mine to the market in Colombia.

Juan, Marcello, I think that I'm having some problems with the signal, but I try to explain by -- I don't know if you're hearing me?

We can hear you well.

Okay. Can you repeat me the question one second because I had no signal.

Give a little bit more color on the strategy in Colombia from the mine to the market and going forward 2025.

Okay. Okay. Okay, Marcello. From the mine to the market really is a very comprehensive strategy approach of our operations in which we are addressing all the topics that has an effect in the EBITDA, but not just in the EBITDA, really at the end is in the ROE of the company or the regional positive or negative. Really, we are tackling all of the value chain of our business and on others, like we mentioned in the conference, the OEE, but it's not just the OEE, it's as well, what is the most profitable portfolio of products that we are offering to our clients and in which region we have to connect better from our plans to the final customer, our products as well. We are optimizing for instance, the working capital, like we mentioned in the conference we have a really high conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow. That is very, very important. Really, like I was mentioning, this is a very comprehensive strategy or program that is addressing [Audio Gap] as well, the access in the in the logistics and addressing as well the portfolio -- the portfolio, the working capital, we are trying to have a positive effect in all of the aspects of our operation. I don't know if it is -- this gives more about -- a little more follow up for you.

Thank you, Marcello. And regarding the cost of optimization in Central America and the Caribbean, I will mention the OEE improvement in general in Honduras, which is the best performer plant in our footprint. The transformation of the [indiscernible] business in Panama that will provide even better results in 2025, the upgrade of the terminal in [indiscernible], which could help us in a significant way, lowering the cost of our clinker in Panama, the expansion of capacity in the Dominican Republic and the transformation of the business that we are doing in Puerto Rico. The reality is that in Puerto Rico, we have some legacy assets from our acquisition in that market. And we are in the process of significantly transforming the business to improve the results. I don't know Gustavo if you would like to complement and give Marcello some more color as well.

Thank you, Juan. I think you gave a very complete answer. The only thing I would add is that we also have continued improving our clinker-to-cement ratio, making our cost of goods sold more efficient. But I would say that was a very complete answer from your part.

Next question comes from Gordon Lee from BTG.

Two quick questions. One on the guidance, specifically the CapEx guidance. Is that reduction a function of changes in the timing of CapEx? Or is it in changes in the scope of the CapEx? In other words, should we expect a higher-than-average CapEx number for 2025 as that CapEx is sort of transferred from a calendar standpoint. And then the second question was thinking on sort of the completion of SPRINT 2.0, and congratulations, by the way. But beyond that, what would you think -- or how should we think about what a normal sort of dividend policy or pace of return of capital to shareholders to be once sort of thinking of a more normalized post SPRINT 2.0 scenario.

Gordon, in terms of the guidance of CapEx is basically some projects that were not a priority, you shouldn't expect any significant increase in CapEx for 2025. In terms of the SPRINT 2.0 and the next phase of SPRINT and dividend policy going forward. And the reality is that this for us is a transition year. We made a significant investment in Summit, which is our growth company. So Cementos is a completely different company now, and we will take that into account going forward to define our new dividend policy, but we will wait until SPRINT 3.0 to bit more details, but you can expect that the company is going to be different than the company that was before the significant investment that we made in Summit.

Super. And then just in terms of timing, SPRINT 3.0, would that be, I guess, presented alongside fourth quarter results?

That is our objective, Gordon. That is the case.

Next question comes from Simon Londono from Bancolombia.

Can you -- you're listening me?

Yes, we can hear you now.

Congrats for the quarter results. I just have 1 question and it is could you provide more insight into growth opportunities in the business or new investments or capital allocation that you may have in 2025 or 2026?

Thank you, Simon. I mean, we continue seeing a lot of opportunities in our core, which is basically the cement into [mix] business, and we are also seeing some new opportunities in aggregates. We have spoken in the past of our objective to develop an export platform for aggregates from Central America and the Caribbean to the U.S. and you can expect to see more color on our growth strategy when we release SPRINT 3.0 to the market with the results of the fourth quarter.

Juan, we have no more questions.

Okay. Thank you so much for connecting to our third quarter conference call, and we look forward to having you all in our final call for the year. Thank you so much.