Cencora, Inc. (COR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 30, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Michael Cherny
analystGreat. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining this session of the Leerink Healthcare Crossroads Conference. I'm Mike Cherny, the Healthcare Technology and Distribution Analyst. It's my pleasure to have the Cencora management team here with me. Jim Cleary, CFO; Bennett Murphy, who heads up IR as well as treasury. We're just going to go into a fireside chat, because it's a lot more fun than doing slides.
Michael Cherny
analystMaybe just to start, you've had obviously multiyear really strong performance culminating with your most recent quarter, another quarter of strong pharma performance. I think you're all in apples-to-apples, you pretend that COVID didn't exist, 11%, give or take, core growth in the first half of the year on segment operating profit. How do we think about what are the key drivers behind this, especially given this is clearly outpacing what your long-term growth algorithm?
James Cleary
executiveYes. We have had a track record of very strong performance that's really been driven by strong utilization trends and also our leadership in Specialty. And during the first half of our fiscal year in our U.S. segment, which is about 80% of our operating income, we had operating income growth of 16% which was, of course, far ahead of our expectations. And as Michael was saying, if we kind of subtract out -- we look at it ex COVID, and that's both commercial vaccines and exclusive therapies, ex COVID, as Michael was saying, it was 11% growth. And if we just look at it, ex commercial vaccines, it was 8% growth. And so that 11% ex COVID is very strong. And again, it's driven by just from really solid execution across the businesses and it's driven by our long-term leadership and investment in Specialty, which is fast-growing part of the market, and it's driven from a macro standpoint by utilization trends. And so we've been kind of very pleased with performance. And as a result of that, after the last quarter, we increased guidance for operating income by 1 percentage point at both the low end and the high end of the range. So on a consolidated basis, in our operating income growth that we're expecting for the year as 9% to 11% on a U.S. segment basis, we also increased by 1 percentage point at the low end and the high end and it's 10% to 12% growth. And both as a result of our performance and as a result of our recent share repurchases, we've increased EPS guidance twice during the month of May. First, when we announced earnings, we increased EPS guidance by $0.05 at the low end of the range. And then after our recent share repurchase, we increased guidance by another $0.05 at both the low end and the high end, so our EPS guidance is now $13.35 to $13.55. And so we've been pleased with the execution by our team members and by the kind of our markets that we're in, in fiscal year '24.
Michael Cherny
analystMay 30, so if you want to go for the hat-trick, you still have one more day left. We are not expecting that, just to be clear. You touched a bit about some of the drivers of performance in the quarter. And I think, obviously, just more than a quarter, but specialty is one that's clearly stood out. Maybe give us a lay of the land now on where are the biggest pockets of both category growth and then I would say also capabilities, services growth that's leading to the outsized performance for Cencora.
James Cleary
executiveYes. And this is an area where, of course, Cencora has been investing and growing organically for quite some time. Many of our specialty businesses were started by Steve Collis, our CEO, and we've had kind of long-term leadership and long-term investment in Specialty and we really kind of are strong, both upstream in the services we provide to manufacturers and of course, downstream in our distribution and ancillary services that we have for providers. And we have strength throughout our specialty businesses and particularly in specialty physician services where we're providing distribution and services to providers, including oncology practices. And so let me kind of go through some of the upstream and downstream services. If we kind of look over the product life cycle from a pre-commercialization standpoint, we have a number of services that we provide. And our recent acquisition of PharmaLex is a great example of investment there, where we're doing kind of consulting around everything from regulatory compliance to pharmacovigilance to a number of other areas working with pharma companies. And then, of course, we have our leading World Courier business, which is the leader in doing logistics for drug trials around the world -- in over 50 countries around the world. And then, of course, when we get into commercialization phase, we have our leading distribution business and we also have 3PL business, where we're working with manufacturers both in the U.S. and Europe on Specialty products. And then as we look at services, we provide downstream to providers. And of course, we have the distribution business, but we also have the leading GPO in the specialty physician practice area for oncologists, where we not only do the distribution, but can provide a lot of wraparound services that have a high value to the providers and to the manufacturers. And our most recent investment in Specialty, which is really the natural evolution of our specialty business is the approximately 35% of OneOncology that we purchased about a year ago. And we have a put-call structure in place that -- it's likely that we would own the whole business within 3 to 5 years of the initial investment. And this is just a really terrific opportunity for us to continue the services that we provide in this market, and it's management services organization where we're providing both practice management services and research programs and those sorts of things for oncology practices. So we're very pleased with the growth. It's been a driver of our growth, and we're pleased by the kind of the growth that we've seen in the business, both organically and through our investments and by the execution of our team members and by the vital services we're able to provide upstream and downstream.
Michael Cherny
analystAnd it's a helpful reminder just how broad the portfolio is in Specialty. And I want to pull on the OneOncology acquisition again for a bit, because it felt like a very logical extension that I'm almost surprised it didn't happen 3, 5 whenever years ago. But why was this the right time, right company to be the one to build on the MSO capabilities?
James Cleary
executiveYes. And we have very strong relationships with oncology practices, both groups of oncology practices and individual oncology practices. And I used the term before, there was kind of the natural evolution of our specialty business to get into this type of organization, this MSO that provides things like practice management services and research programs for oncology practices. So everything from revenue cycle management, to very good IT support and programs, to things like clinical trial management systems. And so we view this as a very good growth opportunity and we had many, many year relationships with these oncology practices and these leaders and it was a new business for us. So rather than buy 100% of it upfront, we thought the smart way to do it was to buy 35% and we partnered with TPG that has experience with MSOs, and so this gives us a few year period where we have 3 seats on the board and we really learn the business. But due to the put-call structure where I'm looking forward to a few years or so out, where we would own 100% of the business.
Michael Cherny
analystAnd maybe give us a little flavor, especially now, give or take a year in, about the work that you're doing as an organization, having the 3 Board seats helps drive strategy. But especially when I think about the MSO businesses that are successful, typically the consolidators, and this seems like a strong platform for them to consolidate. And so how do you think about the role that Cencora is playing in terms of driving the growth of OneOncology ahead of the potential closure of the put call?
James Cleary
executiveYes. We're very active as a Board member and have 3 Board seats and have significant ownership at 35%. And we're highly supportive and working with OneOncology, and they are showing good growth and like, for instance, they added several anchor practices this year. And so they're capitalized in such a way that they're able to continue to grow, and we're seeing that and adding anchor practices in kind of existing states that they're in and new states that they're in and doing a very good job in attracting physicians also.
Bennett Murphy
executiveThat's something they've done well for a number of years, right on their own. So our Board seats give us really good overstay on the governance and certainly some compliance and some of those things that need to be well-established on place as we pivot, get close to that put call. But they've grown quite nicely over the years. They have very good relationships with the physicians that have come into their practices. And it's good for us that there's an MSO like this in our network.
Michael Cherny
analystIt seems like a very logical expansion of strategy, so it makes all sense to me. Maybe sticking in specialty, but thinking about another topic is biosimilars. It feels like maybe Jim, as long as you've been part of the company, we've been 2 years away on real biosimilar adoption, but now we've actually seen some movement, more on the male side, PBM focused, but at least growing an awareness of where you see biosimilar adoption being taken. How do you think about, a, what's embedded in your general growth views on biosimilars and b, where you see the greatest opportunities on medium-term basis?
Bennett Murphy
executiveYes. I think we have seen really good adoption of biosimilars in the physician space and in the health system space. The challenge has been the PBM space. They have been slow to move patients off of the higher priced product. But for the physicians and the health systems, they've moved. The physicians were very quick. Health systems, as everyone in this room knows, it can be a little bit slower. But as therapeutic comparability and outcomes continue to be good, they've also been good adopters. We've always been more optimistic about the Part B biosimilar side of the world. Because given the comparability of the underlying products, we had confidence that, that physicians and health systems will move quickly. For the Part D side of the business, there's different challenges that on the PBM side. And the Part B side is really our sweet spot.
James Cleary
executiveBen, if I could just add one thing there, and this kind of gets back to one of the things I was talking about earlier in kind of the Part B physician space with biosimilars. One of the things that we're able to really kind of help with the downstream to physicians and upstream as we not only have the distribution services, but we have the leading GPO in the oncology space for physician practices. And so we're not only distributing the product, but we're doing a lot of education around the product too, which is really valued by our downstream and upstream customers.
Michael Cherny
analystAnd I know we don't talk specifically about any type of unit economics or anything like that, but for Cencora as a business, you're always focused on trying to lower your cost for your providers, lower your cost for your customers. But at the end of the day, it's likely more impactful on a like-for-like basis, the biosimilar comparisons in the Part B versus the Part D market, correct?
Bennett Murphy
executiveYes, that's right. I mean, there's more service, there's more value for us to provide on the Part B side.
Michael Cherny
analystTurning to a recent, I guess, hot button topic, but I want to make sure we get this out of the way is this whole dynamic of changing calculation on NADAC pricing and how it filters across the supply chain. My understanding is the first derivative impact on distributors are nothing, and then maybe we're thinking long term, but some second derivative impact if there's some economic changes. But can you just remind us, at least relative to your business, what, if any, NADAC impact there is?
Bennett Murphy
executiveNADAC isn't something we've talked about in a number of years. But as you know, from time to time, we get these things that pop up, that keep everybody on their toes and keep all the investors in the room engaged. But I would say that NADAC is a survey with varying sample sizes and varying sampling, so that you can have deviations or distortions from month-to-month and clearly, there was a change in participation in the April time frame that impacted that number. Most importantly, what is it actually used for? It is a component of state Medicaid reimbursement calculation or determining reimbursement price. So I think the key piece is, for pharmacies that are serving Medicaid population that they continue to get reimbursed properly. I think you'll see that the trade groups continue to push and make sure that, that continues given the nature of the deviation.
Michael Cherny
analystWell, this isn't like a pricing change for your contracts at all.
Bennett Murphy
executiveNo, this is more of an exercise in surveying and sampling.
Michael Cherny
analystAnd then just in terms of thinking about broad-based pricing across the market, the other potential moving piece is on IRA. We're in the process of finalizing negotiations in the first 10 prices. Is there any way to think about how your business is affected, impacted by IRA? And maybe is there anything, in terms of microcosm, we can look at on the recent changes in insulin pricing as a way to think about how the economic flow-through would occur for Cencora?
James Cleary
executiveWhy don't you take the first part, and I'll take the second?
Bennett Murphy
executiveSure. So there are still some to be determined on IRA. If you look at 2026 and the Part D side, that is really -- actually, in both cases, it is really reimbursement. So it's not actually a price change so much as it is, what is the government paying change. So we'll continue to work and analyze as you would expect. But as you know, we're not -- similar to the prior conversation, reimbursement prices can be different, and they aren't really pegged to the reference price. And I would just say that there are some things that I think still needs to be figured out, particularly at least one of those products in that scope was about to have or is in the process of having biosimilar competition and that could have negative impacts, just for the healthcare system. So certainly still some things to be crystallized. But I think Jim can talk a little bit about the WACC insulin price dynamic as a comparison?
James Cleary
executiveYes. I think what happened in insulin this year is a kind of really good case study and kind of gives us confidence with regard to kind of the fact that we can maintain good profitability in cases where there is a deep decrease in WACC pricing. And as you all know, in the insulin product category, there were significant decreases in WACC prices this year. And our contracts have terms in them that if something like that happens, then we can renegotiate and we were able to successfully do that this year. We were able to maintain economics and continue to be compensated well and so that was a very favorable outcome for us, where we saw a decrease in WACC price, but we were able to maintain our dollar economics. And so we view that as a very good case study. And I think the overall kind of point is that distributors are very efficient, and we very efficiently provide our services in the market and benefit the healthcare supply chain. And so this was just a great example that due to our efficiency, we were able to maintain our dollar profit.
Michael Cherny
analystAnd just one last one on the distribution side. There have been, relative to the market, some elevated customer contract moves versus previous levels of headline [indiscernible], which is elevated more than normal. When you go back to market now, especially with your broader service levels with everything you're building around Specialty, as you go to reengage customers on contract renewals, go to pitch for new business, has the contracting process changed at all in terms of how you go to market? What you're offering? What types of services, a new customer or upselling existing customers are starting to take?
James Cleary
executiveYes. So let me kind of comment on a few things there. First of all, we kind of have leading customers in each of our businesses. And we have very strong customer partnerships in each of our businesses and customer relationships that are multiyear or decades long. And in terms of kind of changing kind of processes, there's nothing that I would call out right now, but this is something that we've done over a multiyear period, which I think has benefited us. For instance, if you kind of look across product categories, there was a period of time where we earned a lot on generics and less on brand, but we went through a rebalancing process where now we make kind of a fair profit on generic brand and Specialty. And we not only went through a rebalancing process from a product front, but also from kind of a contract timing front. So rather than kind of earning, kind of low profitability in the first year and high profitability in the last year, which makes it harder during the renewal process, we kind of have contracts now so we make a fair return over the life of the contract. And so this is something that we've worked on for many years, which makes it less likely for us to have to call out a renewal issue, which is why you haven't seen us call out anything like that in the recent past, Michael.
Michael Cherny
analystStability always works for me. Maybe turning to parts of the Alliance business. I think one of the things that got overlooked with the acquisition was you bought a primarily European wholesale distribution business that came with a whole suite of manufacturing services assets. I know you talked about PharmaLex before. But as you said now, 2.5 years, 3 years post deal, like how has the integration gone, especially the manufacturer services assets wrapping into what you already had with World Courier and layer on PharmaLex as well?
Bennett Murphy
executiveSure. This is why we bought the business, right? It allowed us to expand our geographic distribution footprint into key markets in Europe. But importantly, it's a business that does a lot of manufacturer services that are complementary to distribution, that we already do in the U.S. and allows us to kind of leverage both of those strengths in the Western Europe, in the U.S. and then we also have a number of those manufacturing services in Canada. So we can provide a differentiated service on the manufacturer service side, particularly for the things like 3PL across North America and Western Europe, which allows us to be a really key partner for pharma, particularly small and midsized biotechs that are looking to launch products and aren't sure which market they're going to be going into first. By working with us, we can pivot with them. You just saw an announcement by one of those small and midsized biotechs 2 days ago to that effect. And I think that it's a validation of the differentiation that we have and that we can provide for these small and midsized biotechs that are bringing products to market and need a partner that can solve a lot of problems for them as they look to commercialize their products.
James Cleary
executiveAnd Ben, let me just build on kind of a couple of things you were saying. I think our team is doing a good job of kind of integrating businesses like PharmaLex and our 3PL business in Europe and our 3PL business in the U.S. and World Courier and the kind of the business development effort we have now to cross-sell. It's in the early innings, but I'm really impressed with the team and I'm really impressed with the results and so it gives me optimism for the long term. And then one other thing I'll say that has been good with regard to Alliance is, we have retained the management team which is a strong management team. And so we have that kind of legacy of knowledge, which is helping with that integration process. And it's something that is -- I think Cencora has done for quite some time, Bob Mauch, our incoming CEO, who will start October 1. He kind of came from the acquisition of Xcenda and I myself came from an acquisition. And so Alliance is just another kind of example of us, from a talent standpoint, retaining the team which I think helps.
Michael Cherny
analystWell, good timing to turn to the acquisition you came from, which is MWI, the animal health side. It's an area you talked about on the calls and you go and look at the Ks and Qs to figure out where the growth rate is. And we've seen some recent acceleration in growth, if my math has been correct. Like where do you see those pockets of growth coming from? And especially as we sit here now, how do you see the balance of demand between companion production relative to the growth for MWI?
James Cleary
executiveYes. So in our Animal Health business, our growth rate for the first half of the fiscal year for revenues 8%. So about $2.6 billion in revenues during the first half of the fiscal year. The growth rate has been faster in the companion animal market than in the production animal market this fiscal year. But I think that the thing to kind of call out about our Animal Health business is it's had kind of 5 quarters in a row of good growth. And so this is not just kind of a recent thing. We've seen the kind of the good growth for over a year now, getting into the sixth quarter, and it is a business that is executing well. And one of the things that enables our growth is, we have a very strong demand generation sales force in our Animal Health business.
Michael Cherny
analystGot it. Great check in there. We're going to run one minute another -- you mentioned earlier the increase in guidance from the Walgreens related share sale and buyback. This is obviously the largest purchase you made of shares that they've sold in the last few iterations. So maybe give us a little bit of rationale on the why the elevated level. I know the balance sheet obviously has gotten meaningfully delevered post-Alliance paydown. But how do you think about the signal that this is sending relative to your cash availability and other capital deployment opportunities?
James Cleary
executiveYes. Thank you for asking the question. And Cencora has a balanced capital deployment, and one of the great things about our business is our free cash flow. This year, our adjusted free cash flow guidance is approximately $2.5 billion. That's after capital expenditures. It's approximately $3 billion before capital expenditures, and we put about $500 million into capital expenditures. A lot of that's IT sorts of things, and those kind of CapEx typically have very good return on investment. And then we're doing strategic acquisitions such as the OneOncology investment or the PharmaLex investment centered around specialty and higher-margin, higher-growth manufacturer services. And then really, the third thing is opportunistic share repurchases. And this most recent purchase from WBA is a great example of opportunistic share repurchases. We have bought a little bit more than we have in the past iterations and just we felt it was opportunistic. And as a result of that, and we brought our share count down. We increased our EPS guidance, as I said, at the same point in time that we bought back the shares. And I think one of the great things that we've been able to accomplish over the last couple of years is WBA's ownership has come down from 28% to 12%. And then if you net out all of the shares that have been pledged and variable prepaid forwards where the banks have sold most of those shares. And if you net those out, it's actually approximately 2% ownership. So I think we've done a really good job managing through that process, consistently buying back stock, which is very consistent with our capital allocation kind of statement of opportunistic share repurchases. And then just very briefly, the fourth component of our capital allocation is a reasonable growing dividend that we've been increasing our dividend every year.
Michael Cherny
analystI appreciate that. And like coming down to 0 is always a fun exercise if and when we get there. But you did mention the $500 million of investments. And maybe I think sometimes people miss some of the targeted IT that you and your peers are rolling out, not just internally focused, I remember the ERP implementation a couple of years back, but other ways to do it on a growth basis. Can you maybe just talk about some of those targeted investments and where you see the opportunities to use IT as an outbound advantage versus simply an inbound efficiency tool?
James Cleary
executiveYes. And that's a great question. So we spent about $500 million a year in CapEx and had kind of put it into 2 categories. One would be kind of run the business and the other is growth and innovation. And run the business would be kind of infrastructure sorts of things and IT sorts of things. And then we're always looking at new initiatives around growth and innovation. And if we kind of look in both those categories, IT sorts of investments would be kind of a big example. And kind of one example that I'll call out where we've kind of completed the investment is kind of the initials are -- Drug Supply Chain Security Act or we call it secure supply chain internally and this is something where once we implement this to be able to electronically track product at the package level, which is just kind of one more investment we're making has a big IT component that's kind of regulatory compliance investment, but it also kind of differentiates the main companies in our industry that were able to do these sorts of things. One thing that kind of continues to differentiate our industry to be able to provide this sort of service, not only kind of upstream to manufacturers, but also kind of to benefit the healthcare supply chain, which is what we're all about.
Michael Cherny
analystLast really quick question. I'm not old enough to remember the last time you went through an internal CEO transition, which feels like a long time ago with Steve being the last man standing in the space. Now you're in the process of another one. How is Bob preparing for the job and moving up in the seat to take up the CEO role?
James Cleary
executiveYes. Bob is incredibly prepared to do this. He has a background in pharmacy. He's a pharmacist. He has a PhD in the area. He sold his company that he founded to Cencora in 2007. He has run all the businesses within the Cencora. He's been COO for a period of time now, but even before he was COO, he was running the businesses. And so Bob is incredibly prepared to do this. He has been on the executive management committee, been actively involved in setting the strategy for the company for some period of time now. And then, of course, also, Steve Collis will be staying on October 1 and becoming Executive Chair.
Michael Cherny
analystAwesome. Well, Jim and Ben, thank you so much for joining us and drilling us in on the story.
James Cleary
executiveThank you, Michael.
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