Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day and welcome to the Centuria Industrial REIT HY '24 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] And finally I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded. Thank you. I'd now like to welcome Mr. Ross Lees, Head of Funds Management to begin the conference. Ross, over to you.

Good morning. Thank you for joining Centuria Industrial REIT's half year FY '24 results presentation. My name is Ross Lees, Head of Funds Management for Centuria Capital. Also presenting today is Jesse Curtis, Head of Industrial and CIP Fund Manager; and Michael Ching, CIP's Assistant Fund Manager. Also present in the room today is Jason Huljich and John McBain, Joint CEOs of Centuria; and Tim Mitchell, Group Head of Investor Relations. Starting on Slide 3, I'd like to commence today's presentation with an acknowledgement of a country. We are joining you from the lands of the Gadigal people of the Eora nation. Centuria manages property throughout Australia and New Zealand and pays its respects to the traditional owners of the land in each country, to their unique culture and to their elders past and present. In today's presentation, Jesse and Mike will cover an overview of CIP's first half performance, CIP's financial results, analysis of operational performance, further details of CIP's emerging development pipeline, including its proposed flagship development project in Wetherill Park which is illustrated on this slide and concluding with an outlook and guidance statement. Moving to Slide 5, Centuria Industrial REIT is managed by Centuria Capital Group. Centuria has over $21 billion of assets under management and CIP is the largest fund managed by Centuria. CIP unitholders benefit from deep real estate expertise across the Centuria platform, synergies from being part of the group's $6 billion industrial real estate portfolio and strong alignment as Centuria is CIP's largest unitholder with a 16% co investment, ensuring that the manager's interests are strongly aligned with yours as unitholders. Before passing over to Jesse and Michael, I'll make a few comments on the Australian industrial market and CIP's place within it. The Australian industrial market is robust. Vacancy rates at an all-time low at around 1% in most markets, which is continuing to drive rental growth. Also economic and geopolitical environments are uncertain. There have been silver linings for this asset class. The inflation surge that has led to an unprecedented interest rate rises has caused new supply to become significantly more expensive or simply not built all. This is creating a benefit for existing, high-quality well-located assets as the supply and demand dynamic remain mismatched ultimately driving rental growth. On to Slide 6. CIP's long-standing vision and strategy has remained unchanged. We aspire to be or remain Australia's leading domestic pure play industrial REIT. And our strategy is to deliver income and capital growth to investors from a portfolio of high-quality Australian industrial assets. We have, over the long term, executed on our strategy by differentiating CIP through growing with high-quality, freehold, infill and last mile logistics assets that are relevant to our tenant customers. We believe these assets deliver superior returns to unitholders through favorable demand dynamics and limited supply. The results that Jesse and Mike will present today are the outcome of the execution of this disciplined strategy alongside the efforts put in by the broader Centuria team every day to drive and unlock value for unitholders. I will now pass over to Jesse.

Thanks, Ross, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 7. CIP has delivered a strong set of results for the first half of financial year '24, highlighted by an upgrade to funds from operation guidance from $0.17 per unit to $0.172 per unit. This uplift in guidance was driven by market-leading re-leasing spreads of 51% achieved on leasing transactions. Additionally, CIP announced a $1 billion development pipeline. CIP continued to execute activities in line with its strategy, delivering returns to unitholders. Our active hands-on approach to the portfolio has successfully delivered more than 108,000 square meters of leasing transactions with average re-leasing spreads of 51%, up from 37% in the second half of financial year '23. This step-up in re-leasing spreads has translated into strong like-for-like income growth of 6% and SIPS upgraded FFO guidance. Favorable industrial market conditions continue to provide opportunities for CIP. To further capitalize on these tailwinds, we have identified an urban infill-focused development pipeline with the optionality to activate throughout the next 5 years. Further details will be provided later in this presentation. The stabilized portfolio also remains well positioned to benefit from sector buoyancy with a significant weighting to Australia's East Coast and more specifically, infill industrial markets, which continue to generate the highest and most resilient tenant demand. To further capture this demand, over 40% of the portfolio will expire and provide mark-to-market growth opportunities through to financial year '27. Additionally, capital management through hedging and divestments during the half continued to strengthen CIP's balance sheet. I will now hand over to Assistant Fund Manager, Michael Ching, to take you through the portfolio overview and financial results.

Thanks, Jesse. Slide 9 details CIP's key metrics. The portfolio as of 31 December was valued at $3.8 billion with high occupancy of 97.2% and a weighted average lease expiry of 7.5 years. CIP maintained a strong balance sheet with gearing of 33.7% and a net tangible asset backing of $3.89 per unit. Slide 10 shows a snapshot of CIP's portfolio composition and geographical spread as Australia's largest listed domestic pure-play industrial REIT. CIP continues to provide investors with an exposure to 100% industrial real estate-only portfolio with 99% of assets held under freehold ownership. The portfolio remains geographically diversified with a favorable 90% weighting to the Australia's East Coast. Importantly, 83% of CIP's portfolio is located in core urban infill markets, close to densely populated catchments with limited future supply. We expect these markets to continue to outperform on rental growth and total returns compared to industrial property in urban fringe markets. This is further demonstrated on Slide 11, which shows how CIP's strategic portfolio construction and active asset management have delivered outsized income growth and capital appreciation, leading to strong unitholder returns over the long term. CIP has delivered 58% total security holder returns over the past 5 years, outperforming the ASX200 A-REIT index by over 22 percentage points during the same period. Moving to the half year '24 financial results on Slide 13. CIP delivered funds from operations of $54.1 million or $0.085 per unit in HY '24. Gross property income of $110.9 million was broadly in line with half year '23 and was impacted by asset divestments executed across the entire FY '23 period. Pleasingly, strong leasing outcomes achieved over the portfolio delivered a 6% growth in like-for-like net operating income during the half. Higher interest rates resulted in CIP's total interest cost increasing by $2.3 million to $25.3 million. Due to strong leasing activity, we expect top line income growth to be skewed to the second half of the year and CIP is upgrading full year FY '24 FFO guidance to $0.172 per unit. Looking at capital management in more detail on Slide 14. CIP's balance sheet remains robust with low gearing of 33.7%, over $300 million of available liquidity and no debt maturities till FY '25. Interest rate hedging as of the end of December was 88%. And during the period, we entered into $200 million of forward-dated interest rate swaps, which will commence in June 2024 and further increases CIP's hedging in other years. CIP's balance sheet provides ample headroom to our debt covenants and continues to be well supported by our lenders. I will now hand you back to Jesse to take you through the operational performance over the half.

Thanks, Michael. As mentioned, portfolio leasing continued to drive strong growth for CIP with limited vacancy, underpinning increased re-leasing spreads. Slide 16 details CIP's leasing success with over 108,000 square meters or 8% of the portfolio leased during the year. Over the last 2 years, we have seen a substantial increase in re-leasing spreads, having accelerated from circa 10% at half year '22 to now being 51%. Notable leasing transactions completed during the half include a 24,000 square meter pre-lease at our Somerton asset in Victoria, where limited downtime was achieved between vacating tenants and achieving a 50% pre-commitment at our brand-new Campbell Field development in Victoria. CIP's strong re-leasing spreads can be attributable to our long-standing portfolio construction strategy focusing on functional assets in key urban infill locations where tenant demand is highest. Looking forward, the portfolio offers near-term mark-to-market opportunity with 41% expiring by FY '27. Slide 17 outlines our high-quality tenant base. 93% of our customers are listed national or multinational corporations and 99% of our leases are net or triple net, providing resilience to our income streams from some of Australia's most recognizable brands. Over to Slide 18. CIP continues to deliver value-add projects, leveraging the location of our assets. Throughout the last 3 years, we have delivered nearly 100,000 square meters of repositioning projects, which continue to support customer quality, increase the useful life of assets and generate increased income streams. Key completions include 616 Boundary Road, where repositioning works resulted in a new lease to national e-commerce operator, Grays Online, achieving a 9.4% yield on cost. And ASX in place, where refurbishment works and leasing resulted in a 24% uplift in value. 22,000 square meters of further pipeline projects are expected to commence in the second half of financial year '24, including 30 Fulton Drive, Derrimut, where building refurbishment and expansion works are underway. We have continued to target adjoining assets to further progress our site consolidation strategy detailed on Slide 18. This month, we exchanged 11 Hexham Place, Wetherill Park. The acquisition adds to our existing 4 adjoining assets and creates further scale and long-term development opportunity. We now have a 5.7 hectare amalgamated site in a tightly held, highly fragmented infill Sydney market. Moving over to Slide 20. Strategic divestments during the half continued to underpin CIP's net tangible assets and portfolio liquidity. CIP divested 2 assets to separate parties for a combined $70 million. The divestments were in line with prior book values and reflects substantial uplift compared to their acquisition price. Importantly, at an average asset size of $40 million, CIP's portfolio remains highly liquid and appeals to the widest range of potential buyers. Demonstrative of this is Centuria's track record for divesting nearly $400 million worth of assets since it began managing CIP in 2017. Turning to valuations on Slide 21. During the half, CIP's weighted average capitalization rate expanded 38 basis points to 5.64%, one of the widest cap rates of its [indiscernible]. In fact, since financial year '22, CIP's cap rate has expanded 145 basis points. The active portfolio saw a slight increase in value due to leasing success and strong market rental growth offsetting capitalization rate expansion while the reduction in value was primarily concentrated on CIP's long WALE sub-portfolio. Over the 6 months to 31 December, valuations adopted an average 11% increase in market rents. Following valuations, CIP's net tangible assets is $3.99 per unit. Moving to sustainability initiatives on Slide 22. Under Centuria's management, CIP is implementing a flexible and relevant sustainability framework. Being externally managed, the REIT has no staff and is solely a portfolio of assets. CIP has undertaken a number of ESG initiatives, including launching a new sustainability target to have zero Scope 2 emissions by 2028. We have also continued our partnership with Healthy Heads, an organization focused on mental health in the transport and logistics industries and continue to roll out solar installations at our assets. Moving now to our development pipeline detailed on the next few slides. CIP has a strong track record in delivering circa $300 million worth of urban infill industrial developments. Most recently, practical completion across 57,000 square meters was achieved at our sites in Campbellfield and Canning Vale. These projects were nearly 50% pre-committed at PC and we are well progressed with leasing interest on the remaining space. Impressively, the leasing was completed at a 47% premium to rents underwritten at the time of acquisition. As CIP looks to the future, we are very excited to announce we have identified a $1 billion urban infill development pipeline. Continuous market rental growth and a deliberate strategy to focus on underutilized last mile assets has created opportunities for CIP to activate development pipeline that unlocks embedded value within its portfolio. Last mile urban infill locations continue to generate the highest amount of tenant demand and CIP's developments aim to capture the key growth areas driving this demand. In particular, our focus will be on delivering multilevel warehousing to address the lack of supply in land-constrained markets, cold storage and food logistics to meet the growing needs and changing consumer habits towards fresh food, data centers to leverage the high power availability at select sites to accommodate the growing need for data storage and distribution centers catering to the ever-growing demand by e-commerce and onshoring. Moving to Slide 26, which outlines additional details on select development projects over the next 5 years. These projects include our flagship 58,000 square meter multilevel development in Wetherill Park, which aims to cater to a severe lack of modern stock in the long-established infill industrial market. A 7,200 square meter brownfield development in Hallam Victoria, which is designed to accommodate last mile, cold storage and food logistics users. A 22,000 square meter multi-tenant industrial facility in Direk, South Australia, catering to a wide range of tenant customer sizes and users. Pre-commitment interest is advancing within our existing customer network as well as strong demand generated from new tenant customers. Importantly, the majority of CIP's development pipeline is currently income-producing with existing tenanted improvements providing a high degree of optionality to deliver projects at optimal timing and attractive returns. We will continue to update the market on our development progress. Moving to summary and outlook on Slide 28. Industrial rents have continued to climb across all major industrial markets, albeit at a slower pace than prior periods. And in spite of continued market volatility, we are still seeing resilient tenant demand, particularly for infill industrial assets. Proximity to a large population base continues to be a central consideration in leasing decisions to reduce transport costs and to have access to an affordable labor force in a competitive environment. This is bolstering demand for infill industrial locations. Demand forecasts are expected to continue at above the long-term average. However, supply of industrial space continues to be well short of this demand. 44% of 2024's development supply is already pre-committed, leaving a shortfall of 1 million square meters compared to forecast gross take-up. Supply remains subdued, particularly in infill locations, a slow infrastructure rollout, labor shortages, supply chain disruption and limited industrial zone land limits the amount of new space being delivered. Add to this, still very low national vacancy and this is creating a strong -- this is creating strong landlord pricing power to drive rental growth. Looking to the longer term, there are a number of long-standing growth drivers for the industrial sector, as outlined on Slide 29. New estimates show that 4.5 square meters of industrial space is required per capita in Australia. Based on federal population growth estimates, an additional 4.5 million square meters of industrial space could be required to cater for net migration alone. E-commerce continues to provide a long runway of growth for the market. E-commerce is expected to grow to 15% of total retail sales and this is anticipated to generate $15 billion in incremental e-commerce spend, creating additional demand for 1 million square meters of industrial space. Onshoring also remains a continued trend with greater investment in technology and automation, creating a more competitive environment in Australia. Supply chain resilience continues to be a long-term focus and together with domestic efficiencies is generating strong demand, particularly from food and cold storage operators. Concluding on Slide 30. As Australia's largest domestic pure-play industrial REIT, CIP has delivered a strong result for the half. Leasing success drove market-leading re-leasing spreads, resulting in an upgrade to funds from operation guidance. A development pipeline has been identified to provide growth and returns to unitholders while continuing to optimize the quality of the portfolio. Strategic transactions bolstered CIP's balance sheet strength. And though capitalization rate for the portfolio widened, strong leasing and market rental growth provided an offset. CIP enters the second half of the year in a strong position. While global economic conditions remain uncertain, industrial market tailwinds, coupled with CIP's portfolio construction, provide a strong platform enabling CIP to continue performing well. Again, for FY '24, CIP provides upgraded guidance of $0.172 per unit and reaffirms distribution guidance of $0.16 per unit. Thank you for joining this presentation. And at this point, I'll hand back to the operator for any questions.

[Operator Instructions] We do request you please limit to 2 questions per person today. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Tom Bodor from UBS.

I was just interested in how you reconcile the vacancy ticking up with the strength you're seeing on the re-leasing side and consider that it's concentrated in a couple of markets, but where do you see that vacancy playing out by the year-end?

The main reason for the uptick in vacancy was the practical completion of our 2 development projects in Campbellfield in the north of Melbourne and Canning Vale across in WA. Now I wouldn't read too much into the fact that those reach completion with not a full commitment. We've still got very, very strong leasing interest on those projects and they only reached practical completion as of December last year. So I anticipate we're very, very close to being able to secure tenants on both of those and provide the market with the necessary update as we progress those negotiations.

Okay. That's good. And then just around developments, how do you look at hurdles? Is it a margin and IRR? And how are you thinking about funding that pipeline now that it's becoming a bit more sizable?

Yes. We look at development projects and the returns, obviously, in a number of different ways, but are yield on cost focused. As far as the yield on cost, that's probably the easiest metric to talk to. The development projects we're looking at are generating yields on cost of between 6.5% and 7.5%. And that's where we've seen the most recent development projects come in from a yield on cost perspective. On funding, we've demonstrated over a very long period of time on this REIT that we've been able to recycle assets with these. As I mentioned in my remarks, we as a group, Centuria Capital have recycled over $400 million of assets in this particular vehicle. And with an asset size averaging $40 million, there's a high amount of buyer interest or potential buyer interest in the style of assets that we are in. So there's a number of ways that we can fund this development pipeline over time.

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Tjia from Barrenjoey.

If you could just touch on, you had recently completed projects in Campbellfield and Canning Vale, I know you just talked about it. But what type of tenants are you getting to [indiscernible] from it?

It's market by market across those 2 different developments. In Canning Vale there's definitely over a WA. There's definitely been a skew towards mining and engineering style tenants, style [indiscernible] we've seen on that. And that is one of the styles of tenants we've pre-committed already to that development. Over in the north of Melbourne, we attracted both high-tech users, third-party logistics providers and also traditional retail and distribution style users. So we're definitely still seeing a real mix of tenant inquiry across those assets.

And just in regards to how you're thinking about under-renting across your portfolio. You've all talked about your expectation as it comes to 25% to 30% under-rented. How are you seeing that now?

Yes. So our valuers -- when we look at an external valuers' assessment of our portfolio, they are assuming our portfolio was roughly 15% under-rented. However, our view as management is our under-renting position is closer to 30% under-rented. And that's definitely demonstrated through the leasing transactions we've done and the high degree of re-leasing spreads we've been able to achieve across our portfolio.

And maybe just on that, is that just for your kind of [indiscernible] properties? Or is that your portfolio as a whole?

No, that's the portfolio as the whole. If we are to quarantine out the long WALE assets, valuer assessment of under-renting is closer to 20. And our view as management is north of 30 under-rented on our active portfolio.

Your next question comes from the line of Caleb Wheatley from Macquarie.

My first question, just a follow-up on the development pipeline. Just kind of on the same, but little bit further around that 6.5% to 7.5% yield on cost. It looks like a lot of these projects are going to be coming out of existing assets that are currently generating income. Should we think about that 6.5% to 7.5% being incremental on top of what is already being generated? Or how should we think about the additional returns to come out given a lot of this is going to come from existing assets?

I think maybe the way to answer that, Caleb, is the way we're thinking about the proportions from an input perspective is the existing land or the existing asset is roughly representing about 20% to 30% of development completion value. Then our development costs represent somewhere around 40% to 50%. And then our profit, again, somewhere in the 20% to 40% range. So when you're thinking about the yield on cost, that yield on cost will be on the land input and the development cost.

That's really clear. And just a follow-up on the development pipeline. So you flagged a couple of new items exposed to the CIP portfolio and multilevel is coming in, but data centers seem like a new area as well. Is there any sort of expertise that might need to be brought in moving into some of these new sort of subcategories of industrial developments? Or how should we think about being executed on?

Yes. I think one of the major benefits of forming part of the wider Centuria Group is we have a huge development team embedded within this business that we can lean on. And that development team has experience across many, many different sectors and have prior experience at many, many different organizations. So we have a substantial amount of firepower within our existing development team that we can rely on in order to be able to develop and deliver these projects.

Great. And just one final one for me. Just around those re-leasing spreads, obviously, that's accelerating since like in the second quarter that were pushing to the mid-50% to 55%-ish sort of level. How are you thinking about affordability from a tenant standpoint? Doesn't feel like they can continue to stomach such material uplift. What sort of measures you look at internally in terms of the sustainability of rents as those re-leasing spreads come through?

Probably a few statements on this, and we spend a lot of time interrogating and understanding our customers and their elasticity to be able to pay the rent, a few statements there. Firstly, rent typically for an industrial user averages about 5% of their total expense base. So on a relative basis, that number is rather small. The second statement around that is a high degree of our tenants have what we would describe as dynamic pricing models, which means we can pass those increases -- all those tenants can pass those increases on within 30 days to their customers. So it becomes not a drag on their margin effectively. The last point is we haven't seen arrears on this portfolio lower than they are in the current market environment. Every single tenant is paying their rent on time, every month and we have seen a very limited amount of tenant defaults across our portfolio. And that's, one, as a result of the high-quality portfolio that we own as well as our careful customer selection in who we do business with.

Your next question comes from the line of Lourens Pirenc from Jarden.

Just a follow-up question on your comments around asset recycling and really more focused on the gearing. Do you kind of -- how comfortable are you with your current level? Do you really want it to come down in light of the fact that your cost of debt is still quite low compared to the marginal cost of debt? Or would you be quite happy to just recycle enough to keep gearing at the same level with your development commitments?

I think on our balance sheet, a few comments there. Our gearing still sits at the low end of our target gearing range of 30% to 40%. So circa 33% geared. We're definitely at the lower end of that range. The second part is we're still very highly hedged. We're 88% hedged as at our reporting date with a duration of 2.5 years on our hedge book. So that's what we think provides a high degree of certainty to our cost of debt over the near term. From an asset recycling perspective, if you look back at our track record, we have a track record of being able to find liquidity for our assets just about every financial year over the 7 years of management. So I think you can expect to continue to see us trimming the portfolio from a quality perspective and ensuring we keep gearing in [indiscernible].

And then in terms of what you would be looking to trim, is it more the majority of the assets? Or would you prefer to keep increasing that percentage of core infill locations? So is it kind of the non-infill locations that would be the target disposals?

I think that's a fair statement.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Jones from JPMorgan.

Just interested in the institutional mandate that Centuria established in the first half in industrial. Just wondering if you can comment just on the mandate overlap that has with CIP and how you think it might be managed moving forward.

I'll make a couple of initial comments on CIP, and then I might pass it over to Ross and the guys to maybe talk about how it benefits in the stable. But I think in the near term, CIP is very much focused on how it can optimize its portfolio through focusing on development in the near term. So from that perspective, rather than necessarily being an incremental asset acquirer in the near term, I think you'll see us recycling our capital into this development pipeline that we've announced.

Yes, Ross Lees here, I'll make a couple of statements. I think ultimately, the capital partnerships that have been established across the platform in the logistics sector are frankly net benefit to CIP. The partnership with Morgan Stanley allowed us to remove some capital off the balance sheet and have an aligned partner whilst we retained exposure to those particular assets. The other ones that have been announced, as Jesse said, the focus on CIP at the moment hasn't necessarily been on growth given current cost of capital. It's been on maximizing its existing portfolio through having these partners that are like-minded with us, it allows Centuria to continue to execute on what we see as very attractive opportunities in the logistics space. And as we said at the very outset of this presentation, CIP benefits from the broader Centuria platform and the network effect that that generates with tenants and occupiers. So the ability for us to continue to increase that portfolio has significant downstream benefits for CIP.

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Berry from Morgan Stanley.

Just again on the development pipeline. Can you just comment a bit more on the timing of how this $1 billion is going to be rolled out? I'm just looking in the back of your property book. And it looks like some of those assets have 3-plus-year WALEs on them currently. So what's the plan there in terms of timing, please?

Yes, I think the way to think about it, Lauren, is we've typically had a run rate over the last 3 years about $100 million a year of developments. Right now there are no development commitments in place across that $1 billion pipeline. But I think you can anticipate that spend starts to fall from FY '25 and starts to increase as we head further into that development pipeline. On some of those WALEs that are mentioned, what a lot of our assets have is a large degree of flexibility with those lease terms where we may have development termination rights within those leases where we can access those sites earlier. So I'll go back to the comments I made during the presentation around we want to optimize the timing of these developments in order to maximize the returns we're generating to our unitholders.

Okay. And Wetherill Park, what's that as a percentage of that $1 billion?

That project is going to have an end value of somewhere between $300 million to $400 million.

Okay. And just last one. On the leasing, can you just comment on what your retention rate is at the moment and perhaps how that's been trending? And then also what the spreads are on your renewals versus your leases, please?

Sure. Retention has been a little lower than we typically see for this period where we've actually churned a number of our tenants. And in most cases, that has actually been a result of existing tenants relocating to larger premises within our portfolio. And a key example of that was our tenant out of Somerton doubling their space and pre-committing to our Campbellfield development from 10,000 to 22,000 square meters. The re-leasing spreads across both new deals and retention or renewals of tenants have been broadly in line and started to converge a lot closer over the last 6 months.

Your next question comes from the line of Sholto Maconochie from Jefferies.

This has also been answered, but just wanted to follow up on the guidance and thanks for clarifying the occupancy before. In the footnote, you've got your BBSW assumption of 4.6%. I know 88% hedged, but it's sort of coming at 4.27% for the first half and looking at sort of 4.3% second half. So how -- is there upside risk to that guidance number? Or have you factored in a lower BBSW in guidance?

No. We continue to forecast the 4.6% BBSW rate, but the relativity given start of the year at near 90% hedged, we maintained 90% hedging into the -- sort of 88% hedging into the second half of the year. The materiality of a very, very small portion of our debt is exposed to the floating rates. So there's a small element of win in there, but the majority of the win in terms of the upgrade of guidance has been the leasing spreads and the leasing that we've been doing.

That makes sense. And more on the guidance is one question. What spreads have you assumed in second half '24? Do you see them moderating or still at 50% level?

We see them continue at a pretty similar level.

Okay. And then just finally, a touch on that -- everyone's hyped on development pipeline, so I'll get on there too. But the data centers, you talked about that. How much is that in the end value pipeline of $1 billion? And how much, if any, have you secured if you were to do data centers?

We haven't got that level of detail to share with the market at this point in time, Sholto, but we'll happily update you as we progress some of these projects further.

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Edward Day from Moelis Australia.

Just following on the development pipeline. Can you just clarify, given the comments you've made, it sounds like the actual development CapEx requirement somewhere around sort of $500 million to $600 million. Is that right?

Yes, that would be right. Probably closer to $450 million to $500 million, but, yes.

Yes. Okay. And then finally, just on your guidance. What's included in that number from Campbellfield in terms of leases done to-date and also assumed leasing?

I wouldn't see any risk to -- any downside risk to guidance based on Campbellfield. We're very confident of being able to secure that in the third quarter of this year.

Yes. So you're assuming that's fully let?

Yes.

This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Jesse Curtis for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for your ongoing support of Centuria Industrial REITs. If you have any questions for our team, please feel free to reach out to Tim, Ross, Michael or myself and we look forward to discussing these results over the next few weeks.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining us and enjoy the rest of your day. You may now disconnect.