Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (CHI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Channel Infrastructure Half Year Results Conference. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Rob Buchanan, CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we run through our financial and operating results for the first 6 months of 2024. I'm joined here today by Alexa Preston, our Chief Financial Officer, and today I'll speak to the presentation we disclosed on the NZX this morning. In the usual format, I'll cover off our company highlights and the operational update before Alexa covers the financials in more detail. I will then take you through our strategic highlights before we have some time for questions at the end. Let's start with our financial highlights on Page 3. We've seen revenue increase 8% to $69.8 million and EBITDA increased 10% to $48.1 million on the first half of 2023, reflecting the growth opportunities we have delivered in our inflation-linked revenue model. This represents an impressive EBITDA margin of 69%. Normalized free cash flow remains strong at $32.7 million. It is slightly down from the same period last year, given the timing of GST payments and increased interest costs. However, free cash flow conversion remains high at 68%. Today, the Board had declared an interim dividend of $0.044 per share, which pleasingly represents a 5% uplift from last year's interim dividend. The past 6 months have been another busy period, and Page 4 outlines a few of the highlights, as we focus on delivery of our refresh strategy. We have maintained our strong safety record, and getting everyone home safely every day remains our highest priority. The strong growth in jet fuel demand continued, with a 22% uplift as we saw growth in the number of international flights. Our stable and inflation-linked revenues, together with the additional private storage we have commissioned over the past few years, have led to another strong financial result. Today, we announced a new 10-year jet fue storage contract with Z Energy, which will generate additional revenue of approximately $55 million over the contract term before PPI indexation, for a growth CapEx of between $26 million and $30 million. This is the second new contract, we have announced this year, up to the Transmix contract, which we announced in May, which comes into service in Q4 this year. Collectively, over the last 6 months, the team has delivered an additional $75 million of contracted revenue. At the beginning of this year, I said to you that, we were excited about the commercial opportunities that will be generated by leading into our world-class strategy, and getting closer to our customers to help optimize their supply chain. And these growth opportunities are the result of this work. But the job's not over. The team continue to work relentlessly on ensuring we can become a world-class infrastructure operator. This will ensure our assets can support the country's fuel requirements for decades to come, and that we are the provider of choice for better growth than our customers. A number of our metrics are already performing at these higher standards, including our asset availability, which represents the amount of time that our tanks, the jetty and the pipeline are available for our customers. We also announced the short extension to the Seadra option to acquire specific assets from our hydrocracking concepts until the end of September. Seadra, together with their partners Qantas, Renova, Kent and ANZ Bank, are well advanced in exploring a range of project alternatives for these assets, and we are actively supporting them with this work. Let's turn and discuss safety on Page 5. With our strong safety track record and commitment to everyone's safety at home every day, we have seen zero process safety incidents over the first 6 months of the year. We did see a small increase in the total reportable injury frequency rate due to a few minor cuts in sprains at the beginning of the year. The increase reflects a renewed management focus on increased reporting of all incidents, even those that are minor, and by our contractors. We are focused on this, in particular due to the importance we place on learning from all safety incidents. Page 6 outline some of our key operational metrics. We've seen throughput up 8% compared to the first half of 2023, reflecting stable diesel and petrol demand and growing jet fuel demand. We've also seen an increased number of long-range vessels come into our jetty following the commissioning of more storage last year. Channel is the only terminal capable of accepting the largest in our class vessels, which provides significant supply chain efficiency opportunities for our customers, if they can bring in larger parcels of fuel. According to benchmarking we've undertaken, our pipeline and tank availability statistics are up with some of the best import channels in the world, which is something we are proud of. Pipeline utilization has increased with the return of air travel and therefore fuel demand increasing, and we are confident we have sufficient capacity to accommodate the advisory demand outlook to 2050. Moving on to Page 7. We handle all of the jet fuel that keeps aircraft at Auckland Airport moving. So if you've taken a plane out of Auckland, the jet fuel on board has come through Channel's Infrastructure. As such, our jet throughput and variable terminal levels are linked to the aircraft movement activity at Auckland Airport. As investors will be aware, long-haul flights consume more jet fuel and we've seen strong growth in long-haul flights in and out of Auckland Airport post-COVID. As a result, we continue to track ahead of the advisory outlook. Over the first half, we saw a 22% increase in jet volumes in 2023, and jet fuel at 94% with pre-COVID measures. Demonstrating that in the medium term, there continues to be an opportunity for growth in jet demand. The chart at the bottom shows the number of Auckland Airport international flights and the jet fuel flowing through our infrastructure on a monthly basis. As you can see, this is trending up since late 2021. This light drop over the last quarter is a reflection of the seasonal tourism on peak. On Page 8, we look at diesel and petrol throughput. While our training assumptions are that both these fuels fall over time as New Zealand moves to lower carbon fuels, we are seeing this decline slower than the advisory outlook had predicted. As you can see on the top chart, petrol and diesel demand remains stable compared to the first half of 2023. We saw the end of EV discounts and implementation of road user charges in the first half of 2024. As you would anticipate, we've seen a significant slowdown in the growth of the EV fleet since. The total number of petrol, diesel and hybrid cars on roads has remained relatively stable over the past decade. At the full year results in February, we released a number of measures of delivery against our growth strategy. You can see those outlined here on Page 9. These measures create a sharp focus on delivery and drive outcomes, which we believe will create value for our shareholders, customers, local community and New Zealand. As you can see, we are on track to achieve all of these measures. And in fact, with this morning's announcement of an additional customer contract, we've already achieved our target of growing contracted new storage volume by over 10%. Now, I'll hand over to Alexa to run through the financials.

Thanks, Rob. Looking at the P&L on Page 11, we have delivered another strong set of results with an EBITDA margin of 69%, up slightly on the prior period. Depreciation has increased with the bulk of the conversion work now complete and the private storage coming online in the second half of last year. Our financing costs have also increased, reflecting both higher net debt and moderately higher interest rates. Moving to Page 12. We saw revenue increase 8% to $69.8 million, reflecting the benefit of PPI indexation, higher throughput, and increased private storage fees. With over 100 million litres of private storage commissioned over the last 2 years, private storage revenue increased $3 million. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, which we previously signaled, increased compliance costs and increased investment in world-class capabilities, we saw total operating costs increase by less than $1 million. This reflects the savings in the cost of electricity with the new supply contract coming into effect in January this year. With electricity prices currently at very high levels, the fixed price variable volume contract structure has delivered significant benefits to us with our 24-hour, 365-day-a-year operations. Our balance sheet remains strong and our cash flow is stable. Let's look at the key metrics on Page 13. Net debt at 30 June was $326 million. Leverage sits at 3.4x EBITDA, inside our target range of 3x to 4x. We'll continue to target credit metrics consistent with the Shadow BBB+ credit rating. We continue to hold $445 million of available tax losses, which have not been impacted by the sell-down of Mobil and BP shareholders. Normalized free cash flow continues to be strong. Compared with the first half of 2023, it did fall slightly, impacted by the timing of a $2 million GST payment and increased finance costs. Page 14 provides the detail of our CapEx for the half. The lowest day in business CapEx is timing only and we remain on track to deliver our full year CapEx gains of between $11 million and $12 million. Growth CapEx reflect fund and firefighting upgrades associated with the initial private storage contract and works related to the recently announced Transmix contract. We are nearing the completion of conversion with less than $40 million of the original $220 million budget remaining to be spent. We remain on track to complete the conversion work at the upper end of the $220 million budget and the private storage work at the upper end of the $50 million budget. Let me finish up with our guidance on Page 15. We remain on track to deliver the upgraded guidance we provided at our Annual Shareholders Meeting earlier this year of EBITDA between $92 million and $96 million, normalized free cash flows between $62 million and $66 million, and stay-in business CapEx between $11 million and $12 million. Across the first half of this year, we have seen fuel volumes track ahead of the advisory outlook, but the economic environment remains uncertain, and aircraft capacity is anticipated to be sufficient to accommodate passenger growth across the second half of the year. The New Zealand government has commissioned a fuel security study in the second half of 2024. Channel will engage with the government and its advisers to respond to that study. But at this stage, it is unclear what, if any, costs may be incurred in doing so. As a fuels infrastructure provider, there are a number of potential opportunities for Channel as a result of the study, and we are committed to helping the government deliver fuel resilience for New Zealand. Our longer-term outlook reflects the stability of the import terminal model and our long-term inflation-linked revenue contracts. I'll now hand back to Rob to take us through the progress we have made on our strategy.

Thanks, Alexa. Shareholders will be familiar with Page 17, which is our company strategy released to the market last year. In line with this strategy, we have made investments in becoming a world-class operator and to support New Zealand's builders of energy and grow our business. Part of this includes our continued exploration of the manufacture of lower carbon fuels at Marsden Point, to enable New Zealand's renewable energy transition. We've previously outlined the multiple opportunities we have to grow and reinforce New Zealand's fuel supply chain. These are becoming broader as you think about New Zealand's fuel supply chain. Let's look at these on Page 18. Since the beginning of the year, we've signed 2 new customer contracts. Together, these will generate additional inflationary revenue of more than $75 million across the contract period the minimal additional operating expenditure. This includes today's announcement for the new jet tank contract with Z Energy, which we are pleased about because not only does this new contract generate approximately $55 million revenue over the life of the contract, but it reflects the commercial benefits of investing in storage at Marsden Point to enhance supply chain efficiency for our customers. We will also provide a significant boost to New Zealand's jet fuel supply chain and resilience at a time when demand for aviation has almost reached pre-COVID levels. This new tank, which will be in service from the first quarter of 2027, significantly increases jet fuel storage available at Marsden Point. With our commitment to supporting resilience in the New Zealand fuel supply chain, we welcome further detail about the government's fuel security study, and we remain committed to working constructively with the government to deliver a good outcome for Northland and New Zealand. We also see our business having a key role in the decarbonization of aviation, given the role we play in the jet fuel supply chain, with 80% of New Zealand's jet fuel flowing through our infrastructure and the unique attributes of our Marsden Point site. Our partners at Fortescue are investigating the feasibility of the production of sustainable aviation fuel at Marsden Point. This project continues to be a priority for Fortescue and forms part of their aviation strategy. Fortescue are continuing to work to secure critical commercial powers at Marsden Point, including renewable power and offtake of sustainable aviation fuel. To achieve our ambitions as an energy precinct for the future, we need to free up space on our site, and this work remains ongoing. As outlined earlier, work continues with Seadra and their partners, including Qantas, Renova, Kent, and ANZ. We are well advanced in exploring project alternatives for the use of decommissioned hydrocarbon assets. Next Page 19. We have also been firmly focused on investing to lift our facilities to a world-class standard. This is important because it will support long-term asset resilience and position Channel as a partner of choice with the existing structure. The decommissioning process is complete without focus on the finishing touches of the conversion of storage tanks. Only the firefighting upgrade work remains to be considered this year, and bund upgrade work will continue until 2027 as scheduled. These upgrades not only automate the equipment, but bring the equipment up to globally best practice for conveying import cleaners. We've made good progress with the bunding work. Once complete, this will bring our bunds up to world-class safety requirements. 4 tank compounds have been upgraded, and we are working on another 2 at the moment. Moving on to Page 20. Channel's unique 180 hectare site is well positioned to support New Zealand's energy transition. Of this, 120 hectares of high strategic real estate, particularly from our Marsden Point site, is currently not being utilized. The teams are well-progressed with developing our long-term strategic energy precept concept. This piece of work, which has been extensive, is about us taking a strategic approach to understanding the value of Channel's land and then finding the best and highest value way for us to support New Zealand's energy transition. As you can see from the chart on the Slide, industrial zone land valuations are significant in the context of the $15 million industrial land is held in our books. There is significant potential for our site to support the energy transition through the manufacture of renewable fuel and other biofuels and potentially LNG and other energy thermal storage opportunities. We're looking forward to sharing this plan with shareholders in the coming months. Looking at Page 21, I just want to reiterate to shareholders once again, the breadth of the growth opportunities are here to accompany. Near-term, these opportunities are very much focused on supporting New Zealand supply chain resilience by providing incremental storage on our site, such as the deals we have announced over the past 6 months. As I've already mentioned, we are working through our energy precinct concept, and this will outline in more detail the long-term opportunities as we develop an energy precinct for New Zealand. And of course, we remain open to the potential to grow beyond our site, but potential opportunities as terminal assets are consolidated. So in summary, today we have presented another strong financial result. The team at Channel have worked exceptionally hard over the past 12 months to execute against our refresh strategy launched last year. And I know that while the last few years have been a challenging period for our people, we can now look to the future with confidence. We have a number of growth opportunities, and we are already executing these, and we look forward to updating you on continued progress towards delivering our strategy. I'm most proud of the fact that in the face of tough economic conditions, our team has delivered operating profit growth, $75 million of new contracted revenue, and significant investment in a community that needs economic development opportunities. And with that, I'd now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] First question today comes from Cameron Parker at Craigs Investment Partners.

Congratulations on a good result. And of course, sort of reducing those electricity costs, which is a bit of an issue out there at the moment. I just wanted to talk to your strategy on the rest of OpEx and, if there's any risk of any potential leakage around that in your approach to maintaining or containing those costs over the long term?

Look, as you'll be aware, we provided some OpEx guidance at the full year result earlier this year, and we haven't changed our view on that. The costs that you're seeing come through now are about investing for world class, which we signaled in our Investor Day last year, and reflect the inflationary pressures that, I'm sure all of your other listed companies that you follow are also experiencing. A lot of those inflationary pressures are in line items that are outside of our control, which I know we've spoken about before. Things like rates and our IT costs. But we're absolutely actively managing our costs on a go forward basis.

Yes, great. Just with regards to LNG, I was just wondering if you could elaborate on, the opportunity around that, capital at risk, your role in any sort of -- any projects going forward and so forth, or the -- the concept projects that are being discussed.

Yes, no, Cam. So on to LNG, lots of senior folks out there, I think, have identified sites for LNG, and Marsden Point has certainly been pointed to as one of those. I think it's fair to say we're very much focused on the growth opportunities that we've got ahead of us in the field infrastructure space right now. And whilst we think the site has some characteristics that would be attractive for LNG, there are other constraints around it as well. And I don't think that we would put a significant amount of shareholders' funds at risk, even in looking at the development of that type of project, until there is some certainty and direction about the future need.

All Right. Okay. Okay. And are you participating in those talks at all with -- developing a need or -- I understand there's a central kind of working group around gas at the moment?

Yes, well, look, again, we've certainly put our hand up as Marsden Point being a site that would have those attributes that you could do it. So absolutely, we would expect that we've done that. But as I said, we're a small team, and we've actually got a lot of other stuff on at the moment, which I think is standing accredited for shareholders. So until we see some direction around that, I think, we're focused on what's ahead of us.

Yes, great, great. And lastly, just the Seadra extension to the 30th of September. Does she confidence around a decision either way by that time or is it just too difficult to tell at the moment?

I don't think anything's changed, Cam, from what we've said previously. I think, as part of the extension agreement with Seadra, we did some more work on some of their plans, which are obviously confidential. We've named some of the parties that are involved, because I think that helps investors understanding the nature of those projects might be. But as always, it's an option agreement. And, it's at their election.

I'd also just add to that, that we have received USD 4.7 million in relation to that option agreement. And so we continue to work closely with them. But as Rob says, it is at their election.

Your next question comes from Nevill Gluyas at Jarden.

Okay. A few from me. Just the -- I guess, the first one, great news about energy storage. This one looks like it'll take a little bit longer to come to completion. Is there a reason why that's so? Is there something involved, something different involved with the sort of the tank rehabilitation required for this or, any color you can add there?

Well, the first tranche of private storage that we did involved a combination of tanks that were already available for being in service and tanks that needed to be converted. And the contract we committed to in here involves the latter, essentially. So we've got a significant program of capital works to deliver that, which is actually in line with the program of capital works that we did for the last round of private storage, which was quite convenient.

Okay. Are you giving us a broad, well, are you giving a kind of steer on size for that? I think you mentioned sort of more than 10% uplift. Is Z Energy happy for you to say what that volume is?

No, look, I think you need to go and talk to Z about that.

Okay.

That's a commercially confidential item.

Understand. Second question. So, you sort of flagged the potential for extra costs in the second half as sort of one of the considerations in keeping the guidance unchanged. You sort of set a number to that, sort of less than $1 million. Is that -- was that less than $1 million referring specifically to costs that might arise from the fuel security study? And so that's quite expensive. I just wanted to give a bit of color there as well.

Yes, that's right. So I think -- I think some of that level was, we don't know what we don't know. If you look at the terms of the study, there's actually quite a bit of opportunity in that for general infrastructure. And, we want to make sure we lean into that and resource it appropriately because, you know, there's opportunity, there's a lot of value for shareholders over a long period of time. So we don't have any particular costs that, we're thinking about, but we are conscious that, we need to do a really good job of that for the country and for shareholders.

Yes, I understand. I mean, are you in contact now? Because I believe, an advisor has been appointed for that. Have you had engagement with them?

Yes, we're engaging with the government all the time.

Great. Okay, that's great. And I guess the last question for me, just a bit of color again, sort of the mention of the -- the LR shipments arriving. Should we think that, some of that benefit we saw last year with the smaller ships arriving and sort of a small uplift to the revenue, but you can sort of reverting to what you originally expected, which is that generally the clients will optimize and use larger ships. We should have that in our minds.

Yes, so Nevill, I think on our operating charts page, you can see the trend in shipping movements, and we would expect shipping to start to stabilize as the customers adapt to our new operating model. And I think this path is reflective of the manner in which we think they will continue to operate their supply chain. I would note that, that is a decision that they make optimizing their own supply chain and it's outside of our control.

Great. Okay. And just the last question on the strategic energy precinct concept. So you gave us a date for when we should sort of expect a bit of a reveal on that?

Yes, look, I think it's probably going to be in the second half of the year, Nevill, is what we're looking at.

Your next question comes from Hugh Lockwood at Forsyth Barr.

Yes. Just a few questions around the private storage deal. So just wanting to confirm that there's little to no OpEx associated with that new deal?

That's correct, Hugh. Yes, same as our previous storage contracts. There's only minimal incremental OpEx associated.

And also wanted to check, so you see a possibility for that deal to be extended beyond the 10 years and would see value in that extension?

So I think you've touched on the point that -- that is an important one. So if you go to our advisory outlook, you can see long-term growth in jet is kind of expected, right? And so from our perspective, we're sticking with that particular private storage deal to deliver a world-class asset. They'll be a great asset in 10 years' time as well. And so I think you would expect as jet demand continues to grow, there'll continue to be demand for jet storage infrastructure at Marsden Point.

Yep, that makes sense. And lastly, just to what extent the private storage deal impacted the dividend level decision, if you can talk to that?

Well, I mean, the board takes into account their current dividend policy, which takes into consideration the future CapEx profile of the business. Dividends based on our free cash flow, which excludes growth CapEx. So, lots of considerations for the dividends.

That is all the time we have for questions today. I'll now hand back to Mr. Buchanan for closing remarks.

Thanks all. We really appreciated the time that you spent hearing us today and we look forward to engaging with you all in the future.

Thank you. That concludes our conference for today. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.