Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE.AX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT Half Year Results Briefing. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, 11th February 2025. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mr. Travis Butcher, Fund Manager. Thank you. Sir, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to CQE's results presentation for the half year ended 31 December 2024. Presenting with me today is Scott Martin, Head of Social Infrastructure REIT Finance. I'd like to commence today's presentation with the acknowledgment of country. Charter Hall acknowledges the traditional custodians of the lands in which we work and gather, we pay our respects to elders past and present and recognize their continued care and contribution to country. Turning now to Slide 4. Key highlights for the half year were as follows: CQE delivered operating earnings of $0.076 per unit for the half year. Distributions paid during the half were $0.075 per unit, consistent with the FY '25 distribution guidance provided in August. NTA per unit as at 31 December 2024 was $3.82 per unit, which is unchanged from 30 June 2024, demonstrating the resilience of CQE's social infrastructure properties. CQE's portfolio is very well positioned with strong property fundamentals with a WALE of 11.9 years and 100% occupancy. CQE has continued to be active with its portfolio curation in the first half. The key acquisition, which settled in January 2025, was a pathology lab in Perth, which was acquired for $47 million on a 6.4% yield. This acquisition in the life science subsector is consistent with CQE's strategy of adding properties to the portfolio leased to high-quality tenants that are providing essential services to the community. During the half, we also contracted to divest 16 childcare properties for total consideration of $84 million. Pleasingly, these were completed at a premium of 8.6% to their previous carrying value and an average yield of 4.6%. Finally, in this half, 15 childcare market reviews were completed, resulting in a 16.4% uplift in rents, providing further evidence of the under-renting across CQE's childcare portfolio. This will provide CQE with a strong income growth profile moving forward as CQE enters a 4-year period where over 40% of its income is subject to market reviews. Moving to Slide 5 and further details on the key acquisition in the half. CQE continues to enhance the quality of its portfolio with the strategic acquisition of a specialized pathology lab located in Osborne Park, Western Australia. This facility, significantly refurbished by the tenant in 2014, is situated in a prominent mixed-use business park, just 8 kilometers northwest of Perth CBD. The property features approximately 5,000 square meters of NLA with 82% dedicated to laboratory space. Settlement occurred in January 2025 for a total consideration of $47 million, reflecting an attractive 6.4% initial yield. The property is leased to Clinipath Pathology, who is an 100% owned subsidiary of ASX-listed Sonic Healthcare Group with a market cap exceeding $13 billion. The laboratory provides an essential service, operating 24 hours a day, 7 days per week. And services the entirety of Clinipath's Western Australian operations with samples collected from across the state. The property is secured by a long-term triple net lease with 8.2 years remaining and includes annual rent reviews being 2x the annual Perth CPI, capped at 3.5% with ratchet provisions ensuring strong and sustainable returns. Finally, the property, including the on-grade car spaces occupies a 1.5-hectare site, which presents significant future development and expansion potential. Moving to Slide 6 and CQE's strategy. CQE's strategy remains unchanged, which is to provide investors with the resilient income and capital growth through exposure to a diversified social infrastructure portfolio. We do this by focusing on enhancing income sustainability and resilience of the assets we own, targeting ongoing capital growth and undertaking continual portfolio curation. We see the attributes of social infrastructure assets such as strategic location, long leases, predictable income growth and sectors providing essential services, all critical components to CQE delivering on its strategy. Turning to Slide 7 and the key features of CQE. CQE has a diversified portfolio of 347 properties across Australia with an average value of $6.1 million per property. CQE's portfolio sits across various social infrastructure subsectors, providing essential services to the community. In addition to the long WALE and 100% occupancy, CQE benefits from 74% of its leases being triple net leases where the tenant is responsible for all property outgoings and capital expenditure. This ensures for these properties that there is no cash flow leakage over the lease term. CQE has a land-rich portfolio totaling 107 hectares, with 72% located in metropolitan areas. This provides CQE with the benefit of an additional alternative use value driver as population density increases in Australian metropolitan cities, increasing the value of land. CQE has a robust financial position with a resilient property portfolio benefiting from the nature and attributes of social infrastructure properties previously outlined. As at 31 December 2024, balance sheet gearing sits at 31% with a weighted average debt maturity of 3.4 years. CQE offers attractive growth prospects through a combination of 66% of lease income subject to annual fixed escalators at an average of 3% and the balance being inflation-linked and market rent reviews. Income subject to market reviews amounts to 43% over the next 4 years, which will provide future rental growth for CQE due to the current under-renting across the portfolio. Finally, social infrastructure is a growing asset class in Australia with significant future growth opportunities for CQE as a result of the growing and aging population in Australia. I'd like to now hand over to Scott, who will provide an overview of the financial performance of CQE.

Thanks, Travis, and good morning to everyone on the call. A summary of CQE's earnings for the half year can be found on Slide 9. CQE achieved like-for-like net property income growth of 3.2% compared to the prior corresponding period, which has been offset by the impact of net divestment activity, which occurred throughout the current and prior reporting periods. The increase in finance costs is attributable to a 0.4% increase in CQE's weighted average cost of debt from 4.5% in the first half of FY '24 to 4.9% in the first half of FY '25. This has been partially offset by lower levels of drawn debt compared to the prior reporting period. This has resulted in CQE delivering operating earnings of $28.5 million, which equates to earnings per unit of $0.076 per unit. Distributions paid for the half were $0.075 per unit, representing a distribution payout ratio of 98.7%. Turning to Slide 10, which provides a summary of CQE's balance sheet position at 31 December 2024. During the half, CQE settled 10 childcare properties for total consideration of $68 million which have settled at or above prevailing book values. A further 8 contracted divestments totaling $23.5 million will settle in 2025. CQE independently revalued 59% of the portfolio by value during the half year, with a like-for-like net property valuation increment of $6.4 million recognized as at 31 December 2024. CQE's NTA of $3.82 per unit as at 31 December 2024 is unchanged from 30 June 2024. The main driver in NTA movement since this time has been a $0.03 per unit increase in NTA attributable to the property revaluations, offset by a $0.03 per unit reduction as a result of the mark-to-market of interest rate swaps. Turning to Slide 11, which provides a summary of CQE's capital management position. CQE has diversified funding sources with no debt maturity until July 2027 and a weighted average debt maturity of 3.4 years. As a result of the net divestment activity during the half, CQE's gearing has reduced from 33% at June 2024 to 31% at December 2024, which is at the lower end of CQE's target gearing range of 30% to 40% and provides considerable headroom to gearing covenants. CQE's weighted average cost of debt sits at 5.2% with average hedging of 85% in place for FY '25 at an average hedge rate of 3.1%. In August 2024, CQE took the opportunity of a softening in the forward curve to add an additional $100 million of hedging in FY '27, which has increased average hedging in FY '27 to 45% at an average rate of 3.4%. CQE's weighted average cost of debt and hedge profile has it well positioned for sustainable future growth from its diversified social infrastructure portfolio. I will now pass back to Travis to continue with the presentation.

Thanks, Scott. On Slide 13, we summarize CQE's portfolio. CQE's portfolio metrics are very attractive with a property passing yield of 5.3%, an 11.9-year WALE and 100% occupancy. Weighted average rental growth for the 12 months to 31 December 2024 was 3.5%, which included the completion of 15 market reviews in the current half, resulting in a 16.4% uplift in rent. This provides further evidence of the under-renting across CQE's childcare portfolio and the potential for further increases in rental growth with the upcoming market reviews. As previously mentioned, CQE continued with its active portfolio curation. The key acquisition in the period was the modern pathology lab in Perth, leased to Clinipath. The acquisition totaled $47 million and settled in January 2025 and will provide a 6.4% yield to CQE following the annual rental increase occurring in April. This has added another sector-leading tenant covenant to the tenant profile, comprising 3% of CQE's income. CQE's tenant base now includes both federal and state governments and sector-leading corporate tenants, all providing essential services. During the half, CQE contracted to dispose of 16 childcare assets for total consideration of $84 million at an average yield of 4.6% at an 8.6% premium to previous carrying value, demonstrating the superior quality of CQE's portfolio. Aside from the 2 larger childcare assets sold in Melbourne and Sydney, which averaged $17.5 million, the average selling price across the remaining 14 assets was $3.5 million. At this price point, there remains considerable liquidity from private investors resulting in strong sales outcomes. Moving to Slide 14. CQE's portfolio WALE remains strong at 11.9 years. Lease expiries within the next 5 years remain low at 2.9% of CQE's total lease income, highlighting the importance of the property and lease term to tenant's operations and also the option notice period required under the leases, which typically ranges between 3 and 5 years. It's also worth noting that only 0.9% of lease income is true expiries where there are no tenant options. Turning to Slide 15, which provides further detail on the strong rental growth potential of CQE's portfolio. Over the next 4 years, 43% of CQE's rental income or 220 properties are subject to market reviews. These reviews are all childcare properties and will allow CQE to capture rental growth from under-renting across the portfolio, which has been previously independently assessed by CBRE at approximately 15% below open-market rents. During the current period, 15 market reviews were completed with an average 16.4% increase achieved across these properties. It's worth noting that of those reviews, the 8 uncapped reviews achieved a 20.9% uplift, which translates to an additional $0.5 million of rental income on an annualized basis. The 7 capped reviews all obtained a maximum 5% increase. There remains a further 60 market reviews or 11% of CQE's income to be completed in FY '25, with the majority of these occurring in the final quarter, which will provide a full year benefit to CQE in FY '26. Market rents are set with reference to operator fees in that particular location. Operator fees have historically seen strong growth, and based on our tenant data to September 2024, grew by 6.2% year-on-year. This further highlights the positive market rent growth in CQE's portfolio, which is supported by CQE's net rent-to-revenue calculation, which currently sits at 9.6%, down from 10% and clearly below market parameters. The graph on the right of this page sets out CQE's rent review profile for the next 4 years, which highlights a stable and predictable income growth profile. As you can see for FY '25, 66% income is subject to fixed reviews, which averaged 3%; 19% is linked to CPI, with the remaining 15% subject to market reviews. CQE's ability to extract full market rents is partially restricted by a 7.5% cap in the majority of market rent reviews. However, these reviews occur every 5 years, providing regular opportunities to capture this under-renting. Turning to Slide 16, which provides a summary of portfolio valuations. During the half year, CQE independently revalued 178 operating assets or 59% of its portfolio by value. The portfolio saw a like-for-like net valuation increase of $6.4 million or 0.5%, with the overall portfolio property yields sitting at 5.3% compared to 5.2% at June 2024. The valuation increase has been driven by portfolio rental growth during the half, partially offset by mild cap rate expansion across the portfolio of circa 5 basis points. As at 31 December 2024 for the assets valued, the childcare assets had an average capitalization rate of 5.2%. And the long-WALE social infrastructure assets had an average capitalization rate of 5.9%. As can be seen from the graph on the right, the total value of direct market childcare transactions in 2024 totaled $535 million, which is slightly down on the $559 million in 2023. Transaction yields have slightly increased from 5.2% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2024. However, transaction sizes have increased to $6.2 million, up from $5.3 million a year earlier. Investors continue to be attracted to properties in essential sectors, which typically have long leases and operators having favorable demographic and government funding tailwinds. Turning now to Slide 17 and ESG. We remain focused on implementing sustainability initiatives across our portfolio and consider ESG as a driver of long-term value for the fund. Key items we wanted to focus on are the social impact of CQE's portfolio. CQE's childcare portfolio plays an important role in Australia's education system with approximately 30,000 licensed childcare places available across the 338 childcare properties on a daily basis. The number of children attending CQE properties will be higher than this as children typically attend 3 days per week. The properties are integral to creating environments where children can develop, engage and learn in the early years of their lives. Childcare also supports families as they balance family commitments with work, study and other activities. The provision of childcare properties enables parents to participate in the workforce, leading to economic growth. In terms of direct employment outcomes, it's estimated that 6,000 essential workers are employed by tenant customers in CQE-owned childcare properties. Finally, we continue the successful partnership with major tenant customer Goodstart and their Early Learning Fund that provides families and children facing hardship with fee relief for early learning and care. Moving to Slide 19 and the outlook and guidance. We'll continue to execute CQE's strategy to actively manage the diversified social infrastructure portfolio, which delivers essential community services. We continue to see social infrastructure as a growing asset class with long-term opportunities for future investment for CQE. Key thematics driving this are both a growing and aging population, which will require significant social infrastructure investment. Today, we're also announcing a $25 million buyback of CQE units. We see this as an important capital management initiative to take advantage of CQE's current price, which is at a significant discount to NTA, and deliver earnings accretion to our unitholders. We're also announcing today that based on information currently available and barring any unforeseen events, the FY '25 forecast distribution guidance is increasing from $0.15 to $0.152 per unit. This has been driven by both the positive yield spread from the portfolio curation and positive market review outcomes. That concludes the formal component of our presentation. I'll now hand back to the operator and open the line for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Lou Pirenc from Jarden.

Two quick questions. Can you talk, with those pre-leasing spreads quite strong, do you see any evidence of tenants struggling to pay rent? I mean -- or is it generally still easy to basically put those through?

Yes. Thanks, Lou. I think that we've been -- like typically, our lease structure has been 3% rental growth, whereas the operators' fee growth over the last probably 10 years now has been in that at least 4% to 6%. So I think the key metric really for us when we're looking at under-renting across the portfolio is you rent to revenue, and we're sitting in that 9.6%, which is like, typically, when you're seeing these new rents, it sits in that 12% to 14% range. So that gives us confidence and given us that like sort of circa 10% of the operator's revenue. It does give us room for them to move and still be able to make money.

Right. And then secondly, I mean, clearly some good progress in terms of asset recycling. Can you just talk about the opportunities out there to do more of these add-on acquisitions? I mean, is it really hard to find these? Or are you looking at quite a few going forward?

In terms of -- Lou, we're always -- there's always things crossing our desk in terms of acquisitions. I think we want to make sure in terms of what does it bring to the CQE portfolio, obviously, tenant covenant is key for us and the one we added this half was strong in terms of that -- with Sonic with a market cap over $13 billion. So if we can get that get that, obviously, the property providing essential services, strong lease, good escalators, you got to scale the market for them. I think the benefit of the Charter Hall Group is we see pretty much every opportunity out there. So -- but it's got to make sense for CQE. So I think this period was good for us and that we could sell, move on the smaller childcare centers sub-5% and reinvest into a higher-quality property at 6.4%.

Next, we have Richard Jones from JPMorgan.

Travis, a number of good initiatives announced in the half. So good to see. Just wondering how the dollar amount of the buyback of $25 million was determined. And is that subject to increase if you continue selling further childcare centers?

Yes. Thanks, Richard. Yes, we looked at the quantum and $25 million amounts to 2.5% of CQE's market cap. Obviously, we factor in what our gearing levels are. So I think we'll get through this $25 million and then at that point in time, assess where the CQE's unit price is and make a decision at that point in time where CQE's best use of capital is.

Okay. And just on the market rent reviews, are you able to just give us the range of the uncapped reviews? What -- how high were the best ones and what were the lower ones of the 8, I think, that made up an average 21% increase?

Yes. So there was 1 in single digits, sort of mid-single digits. The highest one was sort of 60%, and then the other ones in the middle were all double digits.

Okay. And that ones that are capped, do you get an assessment of where the uncapped review would have come through at?

I think to answer that because -- Richard, with all these, there are individual circumstances for each property. But I think the best way to answer that would be sort of we had CBRE assess the whole portfolio -- or not all the portfolio, but 2/3 of the portfolio back at June and now 15% under-rented over the portfolio. There's going to be ups and downs across that. But to say the ones that -- yes, you would have thought the ones that were 5% capped this time around should be pretty close to that -- sort of in that double-digit, 15% under-rented.

Next, we have Murray Connellan from Moelis Australia.

I was wondering whether we could just unpack some of the assumptions around the upgraded guidance, please. Just first off, your assumptions on what the base interest rate is going to be, the BBSW or BBSY?

Murray, it's Scott. Thanks for your questions. So first, to clarify, probably not providing earnings guidance, we only provide DPU. But certainly to unpack what's in the upgrade, committed acquisitions and disposals, that's all factored into the guidance. In respect of debt costs, we've got 9 months of our floating debt exposure has rolled at an average of sort of 4.4%. We've got the last roll of floating debt in March. We're just using the market curve. It's really immaterial even if that stays at where it is and that there is no rate cut, it won't materially impact our numbers. So it's not really a moving part. And then we've obviously got the impact of the market rent reviews that have been announced today, they're all flowing through the guidance as well. The buyback isn't in the guidance. However, that's probably going to provide more of a material benefit to FY '26 rather than '25, given we're in the back end or the second half of FY '25 now.

And then just your disclosure on the 85% hedging for FY '25. Is that more or less -- is that a similar amount of hedge cover and base rate for the first half and the second half? Or does some of the hedge cover roll off in the second half relative to the first?

There's not too much change in the hedge cover. The rate probably stepped up from first half to second half. But when we quote the 3.1%, that's an average for the year. So those numbers can be used as a proxy. But like from a first half, second half split, the finance costs might be a little bit higher in the second half, but that's all, again, factored into our guidance.

[Operator Instructions] Next, we have Ben Brayshaw from Barrenjoey.

Travis, I was wondering if you could just talk about the growth prospects for the divestments that you've completed this half. How would you compare the medium- to long-term growth potential for those assets versus, say, the remaining childcare assets within your portfolio?

Yes, Ben, we look at -- in terms of divestment criteria, we look at assets that we think are either smaller in size, their build form is older and over time might not be completely efficient for operators. So they are the ones we look to identify to divest. We think potentially down the track, there will be some obsolescence risk with those. We look at the opportunity, but -- we sold $84 million over those assets. If we take out the 2 largest ones, they're typically $3.5 million assets. We're selling them for low $4 millions. I think one point to call out is that we have nonrecoverable land tax on those. So we quoted 4.6% yield. That's what the purchaser is acquiring at. After you take out the nonrecoverable land tax, the multi-holding land tax, it's 4.4% yield for CQE. So it's really about identifying those ones at low yields. And if we can -- given there's still good liquidity in this market, if we can move them on and redeploy that, something like we did with Clinipath, just makes a lot more sense in terms of getting better earnings growth and NPI growth into CQE.

Thank you for the questions. This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand back to Travis for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for your participation and questions today. We look forward to meeting a number of you over the coming weeks. And if you've got any questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. Thank you.