Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 8, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveLadies and gentlemen, good morning, and thank you for coming again to our head office. And it's a great pleasure because last year, we were alone sitting here, me and Mr. Hug. Now I have again the group that we are used to for 25 years. Now it's not only you here, I think as well, we went into a new mode that is a hybrid mode. So I welcome as well the online participants that we have today. And as you can imagine, not only you, but as well the online participants will be able to ask and to participate in the question-and-answer session at the end of that meeting. Now we have, again, good results this year that are slightly above the guidance and as well expectations and very happy about that as well. But let me say one word at the beginning of my presentation, I think that is not because we did a great job, and Martin did a great job and the group management, behind us are 14,000 employees. And these employees last year, I can tell you, mainly factory, health and as well, health issues were big ones, and I thank mainly as well all those employees that were producing our products so that we, at the end, could sell it. Same as well for administration. We had huge hurdles to get across that we can produce, we can operate in view of all the difficulties that we had with the health situation. Now let me go -- and now I have to check, yes, here it is. Let me go into the agenda for today. Now I will take over the part 1 and 2 financials and as well market insights. Then I will hand over to Martin with financial results and sustainability. Last then I get back with outlook and the question-and-answer session. Here are the key figures we have announced this morning. Now the first line -- I go by line. The first line is sales. Now these sales we have announced already in January. It's 13.3% organic and it is close to CHF 4.6 billion. Now the second line is a new line for you. Second line, we have an EBIT of 14.1%, CHF 645 million. We have an EBIT margin, net income margin of 10.7%, close to CHF 500 million. And I think that is mainly for the financial analysts and as well for us, a good result. We have a cash flow -- free cash flow margin of close to CHF 600 million, and that brings us then to an equity ratio of 58%. Now the next line you see order KPIs. We are very happy and very proud on, that is the market share. In all markets, basically, we were gaining shares. We have online trade that was again doubling -- not doubling that was growing very fast, double digit. And then what we did as well in the organization we had a chance that we could, number one, acquire the minority share in Brazil from our joint venture partner; second as well, we were splitting from our distributor in Brazil, so we take over now wholesale distribution ourselves; and last but not least, and as well, we integrated Caffarel in Lindt & Sprüngli, Italy, and as well had an opportunity to acquire our franchise partner in Italy. Now the last line, you see here, we made commitments for climate change. We made commitments for packaging improvements and as well for more sustainable packaging. And then as well, what we did is an increase in the dividend of 9% to a total of CHF 1,200 per share. Coming to the global chocolate markets, just giving you an umbrella overview, where are we active? And what happens in our main focus of chocolates around the world? I think I have good news for all of you. Number one, the chocolate market on a global basis is growing, is growing roughly 3% in '21, is forecast to grow further as well in '22 and ongoing years. And another point that is important, the premium segment is growing faster than the overall segment. Now why this premium segment is above average because we see a clear trend to less but higher quality. And that goes as well in line with income per capita that is growing on a global basis. So that means we are well positioned. Looking then as well at Lindt, we had a strong comeback last year, mainly because in 2020, as you all know, we had lockdowns. We were suffering from lockdowns in our store. We had tourism that was missing, and we had clearly as well lockdowns of even some wholesale customers and clearly duty-free. Now we were fighting still last year with ongoing pandemic-related issues. But I can tell you, those happened mainly in the first half. Now happening in the first half, you see kind of -- this year, now we expect as well for the first half, always assuming no big lockdowns again that we assume a good first 6 months. Now coming to the trends. I mentioned already the premium chocolate. The premium chocolate clearly as well is a trend we see very strongly so. What we see as well a second one that is more and more awareness of sustainability. If we were talking -- when I came in here 20 years ago, we were talking raw materials. We were talking human rights. In the meantime, traceability was a big word for raw materials. In the meantime, we have 3 main areas: it's raw materials, human rights linked to that and traceability. It is packaging. Looking at packaging, recyclable packaging, very important demand from the consumers. And last but not least as well, and I think I even put that at the beginning that is climate. Climate, greenhouse gas emissions from our activities, we have today and as well for the next years, a big, big demand and as well a big, big job to do that we are reducing greenhouse gas emissions in our activities. Now the last one or the last 2 ones, what we see as well, is a consumer that is becoming more and more demanding for individual needs of consumption. As you see, these 2 are mentioned here, plant-based is one of them, sugar-free, sugar-reduced is another one that we are clearly as well going and investigating and making sure that we get the best product in that area. And the online trade, another important trend that we are facing, and we as well could use over the last 2 years in order to sell to consumers with maybe some hurdles getting the products. Now market insights and highlights. The split of our overall sales, you see here, the biggest market, Europe, second is North America, and the third is our Rest of the World. Good news, clearly, Rest of the World growing close to 20%. A year ago, Rest of the World was 11.7% of the whole sales, now growing to 12.4%, and I can tell you already now before I go to the details, that will continue in the next years. Point is that we started over the last years to go into huge chocolate markets, that is China, that is Japan, that is Brazil, including as well as South Africa. And those markets, when you start, you start at a small base, now in the meantime, those markets become more and more a sizable -- to a sizable scale. And that, of course, will help us in the next years as well to bring that segment, that is an important one, to more growth. Now North America growing 10.7%, details later, and as well, Europe, a very good 13.8%. If I get now to Europe, I think I go to Europe, then afterwards North America and finally, we get to the Rest of the World. The market split in Europe, you see here Germany still the absolute biggest market and not only in Europe, but in our whole group, Germany is the most important market, and they take 16.3% of the whole markets that we have and the whole sales we have as linked [ entrepreneurly ]. That is then directly followed by France. And the good news is the U.K. is already #3. Why do I say that? Because if you look at Europe and you look at the size of the markets, the German market and the U.K. market, they have about same size of 4 billion to 5 billion in total. So that means there is nothing against that we continue growing nicely as well in the U.K. And going now into the highlights of Europe. Here, you see Europe [ 13.3 ] market share gains. And you see the growth by company. And of course, I just highlight 2 or 3 of them, number one, Germany, 11%. Clearly, they benefited from the fact less closures of stores, a good Easter in '21, but nevertheless, it's a great growth we have here. Then I highlight as well the U.K. Now U.K. 18% growth last year, benefiting online, benefiting from less lockdowns, but benefiting as well just kind of a big demand from the consumers for our products, mainly Lindor and Excellence. Italy benefiting as well. Easter kind of closures in '20. Easter was open again in '21. And at the same time as well, we were in acquiring, as I said, the franchise partner in retailing. To mention as well, we have Spain, Portugal, Austria and the Nordics, all of them with good and great growth. Now that all is possible, thanks to marketing activities, that is possible to more investments into the market and clearly as well our new products that we brought to the market. Of course, the most important one, double chocolate and you will see it just afterwards in Lindor, but at the same time as well, we are going to service the individual demands of consumers becoming more and more demanding. So we have launched a HELLO Vegan in the meantime, as well a vegan product. And at the same time, in Switzerland, we have launched a 30% sugar-reduced bar, milk bar. There will be attempts and as well -- not attempts, maybe the wrong word here. There will be initiatives in that area. And I have to say they will remain small because what we realized is the consumer is always going, I'd say, now for the original because if you decide to eat a piece of chocolate, then you say, I know what I'm doing, I deserve the best and I eat the original. So our goal really is to make as well the alternative as close to taste and texture of the original, and I think that will be a winning formula as well for the future. Now another point that I'm sure you know and you have seen is Lindt Switzerland entered for the first time as well into Migros in distribution. I think that was as well a very big step for us here. And if we then highlight as well the investments we make in Switzerland, I think here as well, it's a clear commitment to Switzerland as a production location. We will invest over the next 3 years in Olten a total of CHF 70 million or over CHF 70 million in the new factory or additional factory to cocoa bean treatment. And I think that Olten factory will then as well service and supply Germany, Italy and partly France. With that, I get now to a spot that -- now to North America, sorry. North America is the market split we have here. 31% is the U.S. alone, 5% of North America is Canada. And as you see, Mexico is still a little part of this whole market. When you look at this split, I just say very important is that U.S. is representing on a worldwide basis, roughly 20% of whole consumption of chocolate. And you will understand now as well, while we were 25 years ago, we were mainly a European company, to conquer the U.S. was the main goal we had at that point. And we dedicated a lot of efforts and as well management time and cash in order to develop the U.S. And I think having 37% in total is now, I think, a good share. And I can tell you, there is still a lot of potential given our market share by brand, that we can further grow in that market. Going into the highlights in the North American market. We have a total sales of 11%. That is misleading to some point because if we go into the individual growth rates of the companies, you see here, Lindt USA 16%; Ghirardelli 15%; Russell Stover, unfortunately, was losing in sales. But I get to that just in the following chart in detail. Canada as well, nicely 11%. Growth drivers, clearly, Lindor, Ghirardelli, we made retail. We could open again that was mainly important as well for Ghirardelli. For instance, Ghirardelli Square, we talk about San Francisco icons here. And as well, at the same time, we are in Disney World. Disney World was closed over a big long period in '20, opened step-by-step in '21. I would like to highlight as well the success of Ghirardelli in foodservice. Big, big segment and division within Ghirardelli. And then we have the Canadian company that as well made big progress last year, and I think as well are well established in order to make that again in this year. Now Russell Stover, I'm sure you're interested in what happened here, minus 5%. Now if I go back, we acquired the company in '14. We looked at the company. We made the right decisions. We upgraded marketing. It's mainly an assorted pralines, where we went with new boxes, new products. We, as well on top of that, have a very strong sugar-free business. And clearly as well, we are very strong, if not the market leader, in Valentine's and in some Easter products. We strengthened from a marketing point of view, all those areas, now [ chart ] basically done. The second thing we did is we closed because we had to automate production. We closed 1 factory. We are now back to 3 factories. So as well did that during 2020. The third thing we did is we replaced a very old IT system coming from the '90s, with a new SAP system. We did that during '21. And last but not least as well, what we had to do is making sure that the logistic is fully integrated into the Lindt logistics, including Ghirardelli and the Lindt U.S.A. Now all done, so we were really high in expectations for '21, know what happened. What happened was as well unforeseeable, we entered into a huge issue in the supply chain. The Russell Stover factories are in mostly isolated areas. The workers pool is not big, is reduced. As you know, there was big support from the government for the workers in the U.S.A. So we had a total of 2,200 employees in Russell Stover. We had times where we were missing up to 600 employees that were not coming or no more coming to work. At the same time, we had packaging material that was missing. We had even raw materials that was missing. So we couldn't supply at the end the way we wanted our trade partners. And all that ended up in a minus 5%. The good news is that the trade partners, we want to keep, we could service, but less than we thought so. And I think that is the result we entered into. We have taken the measures. Good news is workers are back. The second news is that all the measures we have taken now are starting to basically have an effect, and we are looking positively into 2022 so that we are improving rapidly in that area. Now coming now to the Rest of the World and the market split in the Rest of the World. I mentioned already, we were 11.7%. We go now to 12.4% and that will continue to grow. And mainly because in here, we have huge markets. I mentioned shortly, we talk consumer value. The U.S. market, consumer value is close to CHF 20 billion. Now Germany, U.K., consumer value is [ CHF 56 billion ] to give you an idea here. Now if we are talking about the market here, we have Brazil CHF 2 billion to CHF 2.5 billion. We have Japan, close to CHF 4 billion. We have as well the China, growing nicely CHF 3 billion, CHF 4 billion. So we have here good markets, growth markets for us, where we still have a relatively low scale. And I think that will lead to the point that we, in the future, will increase the size of this slice here in the chart. Going to the Rest of the World on the highlights. Close to 20%, you see again the same companies I mentioned before, Japan 23%, China 37%, South Africa 15% and Brazil. I think those are the markets that in the row of growing. When you go back in the history of Lindt, stabilizing Europe, entering the U.S.A. And in a third row now, we are entering and we're entering those markets that now for the future definitely will have a good growth potential. Now stores in some of those countries are important because coming in brand awareness, brand equity that are points that we still have to bring to those markets and stores are an ideal vehicle that we can get to a higher brand awareness and know-how, knowledge of the consumers. So we have 70 shops in Japan, 58 in Brazil. Now I mentioned the joint venture. We go further Australia. The biggest market still in that segment. They were still struggling with COVID. They had Melbourne, Sydney store closures. We were struggling with that. Nevertheless, at the end, we came out with positive 4%. And the distributor markets, they covered well. Duty-free, one word to that one, we were falling back from, let's say, 100% in '19 to 20% of sales in 2020. We recovered from the 20% against '19 back to about a little bit over 30% in the 2021. Now this year, we will find out the hope and the expectation is that we can get up a little bit more than this. Now Rest of the World, I would like now to show you... [Presentation]
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveNow I'm sure you will ask yourself, why do I show this TV spot? First, we are a marketing company. So I think you should get as well a little bit into the mood. But the second thing is, it's an important one because you see the product, it's Lindt Squares. And I'm sure you know as well that we have Ghirardelli, Ghirardelli Squares. So it is a test we have now ongoing, a very decision, the test we have taken, we try in Australia. But as well, I'm sure you have seen as well the product that is back there in Switzerland on shelf. So we just say, why don't we try out on how a Lindt Square in Australia and as well in Switzerland, on how we can establish that product, that is a differentiated product to our lead product that is Lindor. Now my last chart before I hand over is global retail and e-commerce, a very, very important pillar for us, mainly as regards to brand awareness and as well the consumer attachment to the brand. And last year, as you can imagine, they had a huge sales growth against '20 with the lockdowns, of course, we had. And the whole growth, roughly 1/4 of our growth last year was due to the recovery of global retail. Now the shop design, we improved. And mainly, I think what comes in here, we have now e-shops operating in most of our countries, and they have a very important job within our whole setup. E-sales is not kind of just the branded sales or, let's say, lindt.com or ghirardelli.com. That is one thing. We have then click to mortar, that is our retail partners that have as well their own retail shops. We have the platforms. Those are the Amazons and the Ocados of the world and as well in Japan and in China, very strong. And I think with the stores and wholesale that has to work as one piece, as one umbrella because we have to make sure that the consumer, we welcome the consumer on all those sales channels the same way and we make as well the access across all those channels as easy as possible with the same message. And I think that is something that you will see even further in the future and as well, that is a big part of our future activities. Now with that, I basically come to the end of my part, and I ask Martin to lead you and guide you through the financial figures. Thank you.
Martin Hug
executiveThank you, Dieter. Welcome as well from my side. I can tell you it really feels great to have so many people here in the room again and be able after 2 years of online meetings to present in person, hopefully receive lots of interesting questions as well at the end of the meeting from you here in the room. And then, of course, everyone online as well, I think it's one of the good things we also got used these hybrid meetings. So we have lots of guests as well online who can participate live. So really good news. In terms of the financial numbers, there's lots of good news. Dieter already elaborated on it. I think on organic sales growth, we came in at 13.3%, which is in line with our guidance. You may remember in July, we guided for the low double-digit, but low double-digit number. So we came in at 13.3%. I think that's good. We published it already in January as well. Then EBIT, we came in slightly above the guidance. One year ago, we guided for 13% to 14%. Then in July at [ half year ], we brought this up and we said, okay, it's going to be at the higher end of 13% to 14%. And now we came in at 14.1% despite all the supply chain costs, additional costs we basically had, especially in the U.S., we slightly overachieved the guidance. So I think that's also good news. Net income margin, no big surprise here. From a tax rate perspective, we were in line with the guidance and with the expectation, 21%. So net income margin of 10.7%. I think one key highlight of today, for sure is the free cash flow. The free cash flow came in at almost CHF 600 million, so that's 12.8%. So that's basically the third year in a row, where we have a free cash flow ratio to sales of around 13%. So I will talk about this a bit later, but I think that's definitely higher than probably most of you have expected. And net debt, as a consequence, came in at CHF 295 million, despite the fact that actually, we are working on the share buyback and we have bought back more than CHF 400 million at the end of 2021. So we are well on track with the share buyback. I think we will actually finish it even a bit earlier. The term is until the end of 2022, but at the current pace, we will actually finish it by end of June, end of July already. So considering that, I think also thanks as well to the free cash flow, really a very good position on the net debt. Shareholder return. Dieter mentioned it, CHF 1,200 is what we are going to propose to the AGM. I think what is worth mentioning is that this is basically 27th time in a row that we are increasing the dividend. So since 1994, we have increased the dividend each single year. That with the share price at the end of '21, the dividend yield was 1%. Now at the current share price, it's a bit higher, about 1.2%. Payout ratio is a bit higher than, let's say, 2, 3 years ago. Prior to the pandemic, we are at 60%. In the past, typically, we're at 50%. But if you can actually achieve the financial goals in the next years, this payout ratio most likely will come down gradually again towards 50% in the next years. Share buyback, as mentioned already, CHF 445 million was the value that we had purchased back. The market cap at the end of last year was CHF 30 billion for the first time. So we added CHF 9 billion to the market cap. But of course, with what happened in the last few weeks, this came down. This is now about 20% lower. But still, I think, really good development as well from a market cap point of view in the last 12 months. Organic sales growth. I mentioned if you compare actually the sales number in '21 versus '19, growth is 6.4%. So this gives an average growth of slightly more than 3%. So you can see that we are tracking slightly behind where we would be without the pandemic. We have some areas where we are still below our 2019 numbers or still, let's say, if the growth rate slightly less than without the pandemic, mainly Travel Retail, which, of course, came to a standstill in 2020. We are recovering in '21, but we are not back yet to '19. Then also our retail stores, we are currently at an index of about [ 90 ] compared to 2019. So these are just a couple of examples where we have still opportunity for the future growth to achieve the 6% to 8% growth targets for the future. In Swiss francs, typically Swiss francs growth is actually below organic growth because the Swiss franc typically in the last years strengthened against the main currencies. This was not the case last year. The Swiss franc actually weakened slightly against the euro, against pound sterling, against the Canadian dollar and also the Australian dollar. It strengthened against the U.S. dollar. But net-net, we had a positive impact of 0.4 points. And in total in Swiss francs, we grew CHF 570 million. So we added quite a considerable amount of sales to the top line. So what are the sales growth factors? Actually, 1 year ago, we already guided more or less when we were asked, okay, growth rate, how much is coming from volume, how much is coming from price/mix? More or less half is coming from volume, and the other half is coming from price/mix. So 7% (sic) [ 7.1% ] volume, 6.2% price/mix. I think what is very positive to note is that actually price is positive as well. So we had some positive price actions in markets -- in important markets like the U.S., like Germany, like Canada, like Australia. So it's not only mix, it's also mix, but it's also price. I mentioned already the acquisition of the ForEx impact, which both slightly positive 0.5%. Dieter has already talked a lot about the segments. So I'm going to be brief here. I think Europe, the highlights for sure, are Germany with double-digit growth. The U.K. with double-digit growth. Italy with double-digit growth. So big markets, where we were able to grow double digit. I think the other highlight is surely also Switzerland, our home market, where we were able to go into Migros, and is actually quite a large portfolio. So we also achieved double-digit growth in Switzerland. Key driver of this growth in Europe, I would say, from a [ category ] point of view, was mainly Lindor and also some innovation. North America, a mixed bag, as Dieter mentioned, but still, I think, a good achievement. You should also bear in mind that a couple of years ago, we announced the closure of 50 retail stores. That closure program, we announced it to happen between 2020 and 2022. So we executed the share that was part of '21 -- in '21. We have definitely very positive performance in Ghirardelli and in Lindt. Dieter talked about Russell Stover. Within Russell Stover, we had actually a fantastic double-digit growth in sugar-free. So some areas in the Russell Stover, which actually performed despite of the fact that we had these issues in the supply chain. Online was another big highlight, I think, in North America, where we grew double digit as well. Then Rest of World, around 20% growth. Highlights here surely are the key markets, Brazil, Japan, China and South Africa. I think also worth right to notice Australia and New Zealand, which was quite impacted by the pandemic, and there we were also able to grow mid-single digit. So that was a short overview about our sales performance. I think we should now move to the costs, material costs. Quite a nice improvement here. We came from 35% ratio to 33% despite of the fact that we have, of course, as well higher packaging material costs. We have some higher raw material costs as well, like in milk, like in non-cocoa fat. On the cocoa side, which is our most important raw material, I think, we made early decisions to hedge at good levels. So we were able to hedge actually coca beans at good levels early on. And we're also able to buy cocoa butter, cocoa butter ratio early on at very good prices. So that basically led to the fact that material costs overall came down by 200 basis points. Going forward, there is some pressure here, of course, packaging, especially milk, non-cocoa fats, then we have some which are a bit better, like hazelnuts, almonds and cocoa, I will talk about in the next chart. I'm expecting material costs to go slightly up in the 2022 numbers. But nothing dramatic as we -- I think we are well positioned again with the cocoa. You see that here, actually, cocoa, we saw a surplus in the 2020/2021 crop. Then in the '21/2022 crop, we will see a deficit actually, supply/demand of about 200,000 tonnes. So you can see here that the market was a bit nervous in the recent weeks as well driven, of course, by inflation. So it's not really clear, okay, inflation is coming also on the chocolate. So what does that mean actually for the volumes and for the demand? So different factors, as you can see. I mean, the cocoa futures were trading between [ GBP 1,650 and GBP 1,815 -- GBP 1,850 ] in the last 2 years. And currently, we are at around [ GBP 1,750. ] So this, I think, is a level which is not that different from where we were 1 year ago. So I'm expecting cocoa -- future cocoa bean prices only to go up slightly for us in '22. But on the other side, cocoa butter has come down even more. We are now roughly 220 versus 230, 1 year ago. So you can see, let's say, if you now add cocoa beans and cocoa butter, I'm expecting a very similar cost for cocoa in '22 compared to '21. So that's good news, considering all the inflationary trends in general in the market. Personnel expenses came in higher, CHF 100 million higher. The main driver here is really the retail. It's good news. Most of our stores were opened in '21 during the entire year. So that's good news. I think for once, as a CFO, to say the costs are going up. It's good news because that also drove sales. So the ratio came down. That's also good news, 21.5% versus the 22%. I'm also expecting this number to go further up a bit, but the ratio to come down, right? Absolutely, we'll see higher numbers in '22, but I'm expecting the 21.5%, the ratio to be lower in '22 as we will have some economies of scale. Number of employees came up by about 600. Dieter mentioned it. We had actually not enough labor in some of our factories, 600 during some times. So I'm also expecting this number to go up because the situation has normalized and the business is growing. Operating expenses, the key numbers in here are on the one side, advertising, and then on the other side, also logistics costs. From an advertising point of view, we were able, again, to invest more money behind our brands. I mean we actually had the strategy already 2 years ago. We announced it as well during the pandemic. Our goal is clearly to invest, to heavy up on investment behind our brand, to drive growth. And as you can see in the numbers, I think the strategy is paying dividends. So we did actually the same in '21. So we definitely have it up advertising once more. At the same time, we also -- as everybody else, we had additional logistics costs in the U.S., particularly in the U.S., but also in other markets. So that increasing cost of about CHF 150 million in this cost category here. And the ratio also remained flat compared to 2020 and is higher than in '19, we are 26%. I think in the next few months, we will see here also an increase in cost logistics, especially if you will, as you obviously know, we see a big increase in fuel costs. We will again invest behind the brand. So the cost ratio may go slightly up or remain roughly at the same level. I'm not expecting a massive increase here overall, but the percent may go up slightly in '22. Depreciation. In here, we actually also have the depreciation from the leasing asset since '19, that's between CHF 70 million and CHF 77 million here. You can see in '21, it was CHF 77 million. So if you exclude that, our depreciation in total was at CHF 200 million, which is more or less at the same level in the last 3 years. In 2019, we also had an extraordinary impairment in there of CHF 52 million. So we should also reduce that. So '19 was actually also the base depreciation was at CHF 200 million and it remained at that same level in the last couple of years. When we compare versus '18, we increased the depreciation by CHF 20 million. And the driver of that is really our CapEx programs in our factories to -- on the 1 side, increase efficiency; on the other side, also to create capacity for our future growth. Okay, operating profit, I'm not going to talk about that too much in detail. I've seen this number. I think, of course, it's a good development, CHF 220 million additional EBIT, that's growth of more than 50%, [ 14.1% ]. I think it's really nice landing -- exactly spot landing where we wanted to be at 14%, 14.1%, really good achievement here. When we break this down, and I think especially analysts in here and also online, I'm sure you have looked at the different segment, EBIT ratios. And I think I'm going to start here in the middle, North America. We came in at 7.7%. Of course, the Russell Stover performance had an impact on the additional logistics costs, additional labor costs. The lack of labor, of course, it meant we had to pay more for labor in general to get labor in. So that had an impact on the North American EBIT margin. So we came in at 7.7%. That's below our own internal ambitions. And going forward, as the situation has normalized, and that's we are, in general, very positive about the North American business, top line and bottom line, I'm expecting in '22, an improvement here. I think we'll be somewhere in the range of 9% to 10% EBIT margin in 2022. Europe and Rest of the World, I think a very good development. You can see Europe came from 14.4% to 18% more or less, and Rest of world from around 9% to 16% EBIT margin. So good development in those 2 segments. And I think we will also see continuous improvements here, small steps also in Europe and rest of the world in the next years to come. EBITDA, also a record number here, CHF 920 million, that's 20% EBITDA margin in line with '19. But in '19, we had the extraordinary impairment in there also in the EBITDA number. So I think it was really a very good year with regards to the EBITDA with a growth of more than 30%. Free cash flow, definitely one of the key highlights. I think we have been able to generate very positive operating cash flow, driven of course by the profit and the positive net income development. We have also been able to manage quite successfully net working capital again after 2020, again in 2021. And CapEx came in below our own guidance and below our own, let's say, project list, if you want to put it that way. We came in at around CHF 240 million versus the guidance of CHF 300 million. Of course, we also are focusing the labor more on the production volume and making sure we get those tonnes out of the doors compared to doing every project. I mean, there are some projects that are getting delayed. Now going forward, we expect that to basically be higher this number. For 2022, we expect CapEx definitely to come in somewhere in the CHF 280 million to CHF 300 million range. A lot, of course, is driven by Olten by our cocoa liquor plant and its extension and then also North America, right? I mean, we have talked in the past many times about Stratham and the build-out of Stratham, our Lindt factory there on the East Coast. And yes, we will definitely continue with that project and we see CapEx for that increase in 2022. The tax rate came in at 21% right spot on and as guided. 2019 and 2020 was higher. We had some extraordinary one-off impacts there, especially in '19, we had quite a high one-off impact, but also in 2020. Both impacts came really from the Swiss tax reform, right, which came into play. And now going forward, I'm expecting taxes in Switzerland to go up related to or linked to this tax reform. And then I'm also expecting the U.S. taxes to go up or, let's say, taxes to go up tune by the U.S. because the U.S. is growing over proportionately and the tax rate in the U.S. is actually higher than our average tax rate. So over the next years that will also drive the tax rate slightly up. So in the next years, expect something in the range of 22% to 23%. Net income, no big surprise here, right? We had a very nice development of above 50% growth in the EBIT margin. We had a tax rate as expected. So also net income came in as expected at CHF 490 million, 10.7%. I think a very nice performance here with more than 50% growth. The net financial position, I think ended actually better than expected, as I mentioned. On the one side, we had this very positive free cash flow of close to CHF 600 million, driven by the very good operating cash flow and then slightly lower CapEx, as I mentioned. Then shareholder return was actually almost CHF 700 million. And we had the dividend of CHF 260 million, and then we also had a share buyback of CHF 430 million, CHF 440 million. And therefore, we ended up at this CHF 295 million. And if you actually exclude the lease asset, which is -- or the lease liability, which is about CHF 500 million, we would be even net cash positive with CHF 200 million. So definitely, again, a good situation to be in. And this one coupled is the fact that also the equity ratio is quite healthy, it's 58%. I think in uncertain times, it's really good to have a healthy equity ratio, and it's very good to have a sound liquidity. So definitely, we do have those 2 KPIs at good levels, and we are quite happy with that, actually. So that was my summary on the financials. So if you just -- if I just summarize once more the highlights, I think on the one side, very good performance on the top line to 13.3%. Then on the EBIT margin, I think we came in slightly above guidance at 14.1%. In there, we have a few moving pieces, especially North America, because of the supply chain costs came in slightly below North -- and Europe and Rest of World came in slightly higher. We are very positive about the North American EBIT margin going forward, where we think we will get to 9% to 10% in '22. And then for sure, one key highlight was the free cash flow, which came in at almost CHF 600 million or close to 13% of sales. So overall, I think really a good set of numbers, and I'm really happy, as I mentioned, to be able to present this to you here in person. Sustainability. I mean, Dieter already elaborated a bit on it. Sustainability is becoming more important. And we were just talking about this the other day. In recent weeks, Dieter and I, we are spending hours and hours with our teams on this very important topic. And this is a financial presentation today, so I'm not going to talk -- to cover this topic to the same extent as I have just covered our financials. But I just want to make sure you are aware that we take this topic very seriously. We spent a lot of time on it. And I'm just going to give you now a very short update on where we are on certain aspects. So this is not the full coverage of the sustainability topic. On the right-hand side here, you can see our sustainability plan. And behind the sustainability plan, you have lots of commitments. Behind each of these areas, we have commitments and projects. And we are publishing quite a big booklet actually where we talk about sustainability once in a year, and that's going to be published in June again. And in there, we will give you the update on all the commitments and on the projects, what we are doing, et cetera. So I'm not going to talk about that today. What I'm going to do today, I'm giving you a quick update actually on the new environmental commitments because in 2020, we had achieved our former commitments on the environment. So what are those new environmental commitments. So the first one is really that we basically said, "Okay, we are not just looking at Scope 1 or Scope 2 in our supply chain, we are looking at the entire value chain, and we are defining measurable targets for Scope 1, 2 and 3, with the goal to reach net zero in the long term with regards to the emissions." Right? And we will actually announce the exact target in 2023. And together is the target, we'll not only talk about the target, we actually, will also say, "Okay, how are we going to achieve this target. So what are the projects? What is really the road map to get there?" So that's something that we will publish in '23. We are working on it. It's a lot of work in the background. And yes, Dieter and myself, we are heavily involved ourselves as it's very important for us and for the company. In the meanwhile, we are also continuing to improve the greenhouse emissions, to reduce the greenhouse emissions in the production facilities by 2% per year by production -- by volume produced. We have also the goal to reduce the water consumption between 2019 and 2025 by 10% by volume produced. And we have published new packaging commitments. And I talked about that actually when I -- when we published the half year results in July. And as I'm not sure if everybody has seen that presentation, I thought it's good if you can once more hear what those packaging commitments are and we're going to read them out, there are actually for 2025. So one, it's really sourcing 100% of our pulp and paper-based packaging from certified sustainable supply chains; then two, it's to make at least 50% of all our packaging from recycled material; three, we continuously and proactively challenge our entire packaging portfolio and strive to reduce packaging materials used; four, it's eliminating 100% of nonrecyclable plastic and reduce total virgin plastic use by 20%; and five, make all our packaging 100% recyclable and reusable. So whenever we have a product innovation, this is one important aspect together with things like how can we improve cost or efficiency? How can we make sure food safety and quality will still be there? So it's one important aspect of other aspects as well. So this is a -- this was a summary on the commitments on the new environmental commitments, and I'm now going to give you a short update as well on the farming program. We kicked off the farming program almost 15 years ago in 2008. And it really has the goal to improve the livelihoods of our -- of the farmers, of our suppliers in the different origins. And in 2020, we achieved the first important milestone. I think this is really a great milestone we achieved. We achieved 100% of cocoa bean sourcing out of our Lindt Farming Program. So it's all traceable and also verified by a third party. At the same time, we also have the goal now going forward to achieve by 2025, the same on cocoa butter and cocoa powder. So by 2025, we will also source 100% of our cocoa butter and our cocoa powder out of Lindt farming programs, and it will be traceable and also verified. So with that, I'm showing you now a short film as well on the sustainability program. [Presentation]
Martin Hug
executiveSo the Lindt & Sprüngli Farming Program, I think, in a nutshell, really working on the improvement of the livelihoods of the farmers. It's based on 4 pillars, and we work with more than 80,000 farmers in the different origins and also local partners. So what is it about? First pillar is really about traceability. So we are actually registering the farmers. We are then mapping all the farms. We know exactly where the farms are and the size of the farms, et cetera. And then we are tracing really each single bean from their farm to our chocolate manufacturing sites. And that helps us really to understand the farmers, the families, the communities better, and we can have a better impact there. Then secondly, it's about training and knowledge transfer. We really work together with the farmers on the farming practices, which then enables the farmers to become more efficient, to use more sustainable practices and to have a better output at the end of the day in their farms, which again helps living income, of course. Thirdly, really, it's about farmer investments. We are investing in the -- with the farmers, with the families, with the communities in the areas of -- we are distributing tools. We are distributing seedlings for trees. We are giving -- handing out cash premiums for the cocoa beans. We are giving access to clean water. And also important, of course, to avoid child labor, we are building schools in the origins and do everything possible so the kids can go to the schools. And then the fourth pillar is really about verification. So we have a third party that looks at the farming programs and looks at the traceability, et cetera. Again, giving us feedback, so where can we even get better? It's important to have a benchmark also with programs of third parties. So that's basically in a nutshell our Lindt & Sprüngli Farming Program. That was, as I said, a very short update on sustainability. It was not the goal to give you a full update. As I mentioned, during June, we are publishing the sustainability report, where you will get the full update on all the projects and all the commitments we are working on in sustainability. So thanks a lot for your attention from my side. And with that, I'm handing over to Dieter Weisskopf, again, who will talk you through the growth agenda.
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveThank you very much, Martin. And I already thank you now for your attention and patience. It took an hour, but allow us when you are all ready here, we give you really an update what's going on in our company here. Now I get to the growth agenda and outlook. There are 3 charts left and I think then we get to the question and answers. Now talking about growth today. In today's, say, now geopolitical environment, I'm sure that you will ask yourself, what is Lindt & Sprüngli doing that makes them confident that growth in the future will be there for the shareholders? Now I think I have 2 charts for that. Now look at the left side. Now the left side is we [ met ] the '20 year -- '21 financial year, yes. But what can we rely on? We can rely on number one, and I think don't forget that in today's environment, more and more important, most dedicated people. You can ask everybody you want [ Vision ] Lindt, it's a great product. It's a high-quality. And I think people like working for Lindt. And I think, as I said at the beginning, they are standing behind us and I think that is the most important one we rely on here. The second one is clearly the brand. Brand established over 175 years and even more. The third one is the highest quality product we have. We have an organization set up now across the globe. And you have seen over the last 2 years, the resilience of our business model that is there. We have a very strong balance sheet with 58% equity to balance sheet, and total and all that is there. But nevertheless, if you look at the environment, is that enough? What do we have to do? And I think what is critical is, as a company, we have to adapt on an ongoing, continuous basis that we can approach that market and as well adapt to the changes and the big changes that are ongoing in order to reach 6% to 8% growth. Now here, again, it has been commented this morning, we were at 5% to 7% growth. We now lift our expectation to 6.8%. Now what is the reason? The reason behind this, basically the same one that led us to reduce from 6%, 8% to 5%, 7%. That is inflation. Now as you can remember, from 2014, '15 to 2021, inflation was something nobody really talked about because it wasn't existing. So if you went into the trade partners and said, "Hey, I want to increase, they say, why?" And if you had no reason and there was no reason you couldn't increase. So that means, when we talk growth, there is always a part and was a part inflation. Definitely looking into the future, at least the next 2, 3 years, we think that we will have some adjustments in the prices. As Martin before said, we will be hit and are hit in a lot of areas, be it logistics, be it as well wages clearly, and be it as well raw materials. Now that is one reason. The other reason is as well, clearly the point that we now as well see further growth and growth impact from countries that we entered the markets, we entered only over the last 10 years. Now having said that, that is still not enough because what I said and mentioned just before, it is a continuous adaptation of our growth and model of growth model. Now having said that, we decided about 1.5, 2 years to embark on a journey where we just said, we need a structured approach on we can -- on an ongoing basis, just and focused basis as well and in a structured way, approach the challenges that are ahead of us and that we are not basically losing time and losing as well a lot of energy management time in basically diverting into not so strategic projects. Having said that, if we want to grow 6% to 8%, and that is now the target for the next years, if we want to improve our operating profit by 20 to 40, if we want to attract as well, the talents we need in order to get into the project here, then, of course, we need to be structured. We have 6 pillars. The one is the organization. The organization has to stay agile. We have seen companies that the bigger they got, they were becoming a little bit administrative and as well slow. We have to make sure that we are set up in an organization that remains alert, goes ahead, even if we grow that in that percentages, you can calculate yourself where we get that in about 5 to 8 years. So that's a certain risk. We have to make sure that the organization follows pace. Delight. That's another one. I mentioned that media environment is changing. Not only the media environment, but as well we have the consumers becoming more demanding. The consumer demands are more individual. We have to satisfy it. We have to strengthen product innovation. We have to make sure we do the right things for the consumer. And we have to make sure as well that we never ever give up quality and as well our pace of innovation. Second one. Seamless, I mentioned that as well already. It is not enough that we sell in wholesale. We have to make sure we play on all areas of the channels and that is online, that is business to business, that is area of our own stores and as well, that is something that, at the end, I mentioned that has to be an umbrella and that the consumer is facing wherever they are shopping the same brand and the same equity of this brand and as well, and the easy access wherever they want to buy, they get Lindt. Sustainability that is, again, areas of raw material, areas of raw material within a raw material, it's traceability and the human rights issues. We have the second one, packaging, and we have the third one, greenhouse gas. I can tell you that mainly the last one, the greenhouse gas will occupy us a lot over the next years and even decades. So there will be a lot of efforts in that area, as you, I'm sure, have heard already from other companies in the food sector and as well will absorb a lot of management time, and we have to act very focused here. Advance goes into the growth agenda that we have internally and as well, you see already the results with the emerging markets, big markets, income per capita growing and really ready as well for our Lindt products. We need a structured approach, which new countries when and to what extent and in what form we are going to enter. Now all those programs to the left, they, of course, have to be financed mainly of course, advertising, media, but last but not least as well, very importantly, sustain and sustainability will cost us more cash and efforts in the future. So we have to make sure that we get lean. We get efficient in production. And as well, we do everything that we can free up cash in order to do the programs in the first 5 pillars. Now all that is not possible without the fundament and the fundament is people and people means attracting best talents, and we have to be, and become and keep our position as employer of choice. That is just a very small insight into the growth agenda in order as well to give you kind of a quick overview, what can you expect from Lindt and as well what is Lindt doing in order to be now getting to such an outlook. Now standing here and giving you an outlook for the coming year, I can tell you that it is not an easy one because looking at all the geopolitical environment we are now in, standing here in March and giving you an outlook for the year, it's a very bold exercise, I can tell you. And as well, I don't want to say always subject to A, B, C, D, E and at the end, you will say subject to what are you going to make here a forecast, I just say, assuming from what we see today, we are expecting for this year, organic growth rate of 6% to 8%, in all likelihood at the upper end of that range here. And as well, we will see a relatively strong first half as well. Now the operating profit margin, again, here is subject to a lot of things. But we stand here and say, yes, we are confident we can reach this 15%. Medium to long term as well, we maintain, as I said already before, for the growth agenda, the 6% to 8%. We will see more inflation in here in that figure, and we will have a continuous improvement of the operating profit margin of 20 to 40 basis points. And that's basically my part on the growth agenda. And with that, we get over now to the question-and-answer session, and I ask Martin, please join us again. And if we talk about the question-and-answer session, yes, we want to enchant the world of chocolate. But before I go now into the question-and-answer session, now let me say one word to our actual really dangerous, I don't say situation, but I say the dangerous war at the border and doorsteps of Europe. Because I'm sure that, that question will come up from you because we are all affected and even more affected are the people that are fleeing the refugees in Ukraine. So I would like to give you kind of our position. I would like to give you our situation -- situation of our employees in the area. Now number one, we clearly, as a company, we condemn war. I think that is not the right thing to resolve the problems that we have in the world. It's disastrous, and we just ask all the parties involved, one party mainly kind of to come back to negotiations and to find a solution to that real disaster. Now latest news from our employees. I think that's always the main point we have in our organization. We have one employee in Ukraine. What we hear is, he is safe, but still in the country. We work in Ukraine via a third-party distributor. And of course, there is no more supplies to the country is possible. We have a total of 120, 125 employees in Russia. We have 8 stores in Russia. Those employees are as well, of course, concerned about the situation, but as well here, we care for those employees. And of course, what the government is doing, what the employees are doing, that's a difference, we make that difference clearly. Now they are safe as well. And of course, we are concerned as they are. We are continuously looking at the situation. We still supply as far as we can supply the market as all other food companies as well committed to do so far. I think there is not one food company having withdrawn from the market in Russia. Of course, we consider and look at the situation on a daily basis as far as supplies are at all mode possible. And clearly, we do that all within the sanctions that are there. We clearly follow all the sanctions that have been imposed on the country. But now leaving the business apart, and I have to tell you, I think our good results today are impaired by the suffering of all those people of the refugees that are really fleeing to Europe. Our thoughts are with them. And, so what can we do? Now I think the Board of Directors, the Chairman and management, we have decided as well, and that is not a kind of [Audio Gap] a marketing exercise [Audio Gap] we have decided [Audio Gap] refugees at the borders. [Audio Gap] And that's basically what we can do as well as a responsible company. With that, I conclude my introduction to Q&A, and I would like now to open the Q&A for the group here in the room. And then depending on demand and questions, we will then after roughly 25 minutes, we will hand over to the online participants for questions.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[ Silke Koltrowitz ] from Reuters. Yes, so I was going to ask about the situation in Russia. So you say you keep supplying. So I assume all your stores are open in the country then. And so you're going to stay that way with stores open, you keep supplying as long as you can. That's my first question. And related to that, I wanted to ask, so you're very positive on your outlook, and you just said there's all these uncertainties. So these -- this whole geopolitical situation at the moment, it is included in your outlook because I mean, you're not concerned that there could be a major economic downturn affecting also other markets. I know that Russia is maybe not so important for you. So I was wondering about that, yes.
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveSo first question, yes, we are supplying as far as we can. I think, as I said, it's in line with all other food companies. Now stores are open, yes. And the second question is, yes, in the 6% to 8%, again, yes, it's included. Russia, Ukraine actually are making less than 1% of our total sales. Now again, I don't want to start again subject to a lot of other points, but I think the way it looks like now, yes, it is included, 6% to 8% should be done.
Patrik Schwendimann
analystPatrik Schwendimann, Zürcher Kantonalbank. Price/mix was at 6.2% last year, what was the price component of it? And what's your best guess expectation for the current year in terms of price/mix and also separately the price? And maybe also in the longer term, you just have raised the organic growth to 6% to 8%. What have you in mind in terms of inflation? And second topic, raw materials, a good outlook for the current year. I guess you're at least a lot -- already you have a lot of coverage for the current year. What about '23? And what's your -- I know it's just more than 1 year down the road, but what's your best guess there? And should we expect there a stronger increase then? And last question, Russell Stover, down 5% last year. You just have mentioned a better outlook for the current year. What does this mean? What's your best guess here in terms of growth for Russell Stover and maybe also midterm growth for Russell Stover?
Martin Hug
executiveI can start maybe with your question on the price. So last year, it was around 1%. For this year, I'm expecting something between 2% and 3% for price out of the 6% to 8%, let's say, higher end of 8%, well higher end of 6% to 8%, so around 8%. So if you take there around 2%, 2.5% to 3%, you're probably more or less correct on price/mix. And then your other question was on raw material in 2023. I think that's quite volatile right now, of course. Cocoa is okay, right? I mean I've shown you, it's [ 1,750 ] more or less. So on the cocoa side, we should be okay. But there are some areas where we can really see costs going up quite steeply like in packaging, like in milk, like in sugar. These are a few areas. But look, I'm not expecting a massive increase in 2023 because cocoa, which is such an important part for us is actually at a good level, right, still. And therefore, I would say, a slight increase. In '22, a slight increase and then also in '23 a slight increase. And your last question on Russell Stover, I mean, your question was on growth of Russell Stover for '22 and beyond, right? Look, the overall picture has not changed. As I mentioned, we have some very healthy parts in the portfolio there with sugar free, which is growing double digit, which is now, of course, if the rest of the business is not growing and sugar free is growing double digit, the sugar free share is becoming more important of the total portfolio. So that helps a bit. Last year, we said it was really under pressure because of the supply chain situation in the factories, which now I think we are in a much better pathway to improve that. So for this year, I'm expecting a low single-digit growth. And then for next year and the years to come, I'm expecting a small growth as well, somewhere 2%, 3%, 4%.
Patrik Schwendimann
analystMaybe inflation for long-term [ and probably ] this year?
Martin Hug
executiveYes. In the past 10 years, normally, price/mix was around 1%, right? So in our new assumption, I would say 1.5% to 2% because we're also implementing price increases, right? We have done a big price increase this year already in the U.S. of 7% to 8%. And if the inflation remains high, we'll do another price increase in the future most likely. So maybe, of course, with the higher packaging material cost, et cetera, we have to offset that with higher price. Therefore, I think we will see in the next few years [Audio Gap]
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Audio Gap] How profitability varies by your different channels like online owned stores, retail?
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveThe first one is the easiest one. That is the buyback. I cannot give you an answer on that one because at the end, that will be a decision by the Board of Directors and not mine. We will be ending in all likelihood, the existing buyback by end of June, maybe July, depending on the markets. And so for that reason, the Board of Directors will look at that question in view of free cash flow, in view of future dividends and our internal and external plans. That's all I can say for the time being. Now the second one is sales split.
Martin Hug
executiveProfitability. I think the question was on profitability in online and in retail. Online in general is accretive to our profitability. We can actually -- of course, when you look at online, you have different online channels like Amazon, like the platforms, right, that's more or less in line. And then we have also like the click-to-mortar which is like the Tesco.com. That's also in line with our wholesale P&L and then our online lindt.com, in general, tends to be more profitable because we have -- of course, we have the entire margin, right, a bit similar to retail, and we don't have the cost for the rent of the stores. So online is for us a good thing. The growth there that we are achieving also from a profitability point of view.
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveOkay. I think there is another one.
Joern Iffert
analystYes, it's Jörn speaking here from UBS. Dieter, Martin, can you hear me?
Martin Hug
executiveYes.
Joern Iffert
analystThe first one would be please on your margin in North America. Can you give us a hint where Lindt and Ghirardelli is standing in terms of margins and is already close to the group average? The second question would be please on your emerging market strategy. Just to double check, are you planning here your own production site, the emerging markets in Asia, I mean, in the next 3 to 5 years? And the last question, if I may, Dieter to you. We all want you to stay another 10 to 15 years. Maybe just if you give us an update what is your plan?
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveOkay. So Martin, maybe you start with that.
Martin Hug
executiveSo your first question on profitability. North America, we are not disclosing the numbers actually by brand. It's even -- we have now really 1 segment, that we report is anyway as 1 segment is in the U.S., right? Because it's so interlinked with logistics, with procurement, et cetera, that's even difficult to exactly break down the profit on the brand level. So therefore, we have the entire profit for the U.S. And as I mentioned, we want to increase that from where we are today to 9% to 10%. And from there, actually, which I probably didn't mention yet, we are quite confident that we can continue to improve the EBIT margin also by 50 to 70 basis points per year going forward. Yes.
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveI think the other one, if I understood it well, now it is Asia and as well our plans and growth plans. I think you have China, you have Japan as the big ones. We are already well established, and we will grow. Then next one in the row, that is probably the most imminent one is clearly South Korea, we have to look at. And a little bit more distance is a huge market that is Indonesia, but still kind of as regards logistics, as regards temperature, as regards distribution, a very challenging one. That's the second one. And now please, can you repeat the third -- what was it -- I didn't get it. I just saw everybody laughing here. That's even better. Okay.
Martin Hug
executiveIt's about your future, how much longer you are planning to stay...
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveThat's the reason, I didn't hear it. I think once I will really decide, you will hear it not in a press conference as that one. But I think that's all I can say to that. Okay. No more question online. That leaves me the question here again any upcoming new question in the room? If not, then I -- yes, there is one. So the last online, let's see.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[ Rica Angela ] Quantum Media. Can you hear me?
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveYes. Hello? We hear you or heard you.
Unknown Analyst
analystHello, can you hear me?
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveYes. Yes, everything okay on our side.
Unknown Analyst
analystHello, can you hear me?
Dieter Weisskopf
executiveYes. Okay. I think, now I don't want to keep you waiting here. It seems to be a connection issue. I think new technique, we are still training in that area. Now thank you very much for coming again. And please help yourself, as always, you know it, try the products. You will see as well outside. You will see some products that you might not have seen in the stores already. So I'm really interested to know what your tasting session will be at home. Thank you very much, and see you again latest in a year's time.
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