Chroma ATE Inc. (2360) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to Chroma's 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] For your information, a webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit www.chroma.com.tw/investor/index under the Investor Relations section. And now I would like to introduce the CFO, Paul Ying. Mr. Ying, please begin.

Thank you, Jason. Hi, everyone, ladies and gentlemen. This is Paul Ying from Chroma. And Jennifer Chien is with me today. Welcome to the 2024 third quarter financial release meeting. Well, first of all, I will thank you for your attendance to this meeting. Simply because this is a public holiday for the Typhoon, and outside of the window from the meeting room at Chroma, I still can see the raindrops and very windy weather outside. So in typical Chinese traditions, I think the waters meaning the fortune. So I wish you all make a big fortune in this year. And well, with the investment in Chroma as well. Okay. Let's go to the 2024 third quarter's consolidated income statement. I think you can look at the -- from our presentation material at the website. For the third quarter of this year, you can see that the sales revenue for the third quarter is TWD 5.6 billion. And compared to last quarter, it's a 2% growth on a Q-over-Q base. And compared to the last year, third quarter, it's a 16% growth. I think it's a pretty good record. And for the proportions of the consolidated sales and testing equipment business, it's TWD 5.1 billion, representing 92% of the whole top line. And this is kind of flat to the last quarter. And it's -- again, it's a 12% growth compared to last year. And for the automation sales of the MAS, it's TWD 3.8 billion compared to last year -- compared to the last quarter, it's 100% growth and compared to the last year, it's 133% growth. So for the gross margin, it comes to the TWD 3.3 billion, represent 59% of the gross margin. And it's kind of flat to the last quarter and with another 20% growth compared to the last year's third quarter. And for the operating income, you can see that for the third quarter, it makes TWD 1.5 billion. It represents a flat to the -- compared to the last quarter. At the same time, compared to the last year's third quarter, it's a 22% growth. So for the -- net income for the third quarter, it goes with the TWD 1.4 billion, represent 26% of the top line. And it's kind of 1% growth compared to last quarter, but with 16% growth with the Y-o-Y base. So in here, you can see that the earnings per share for the third quarter is TWD 3.39. And this is the third quarter financial result for the year of '24. And if we accumulated the first 3 quarters for the income statement, you can see that for the first 3 quarter, the net sales is TWD 15.5 billion, compared to last year, TWD 13.6 billion. This is a 14% growth. And again, from the proportion of the consolidated sales of testing equipment business, it's TWD 14.6 billion compared to last year first 3 quarter, it's a 14% growth. Again, for the automation portion, MAS for the first 3 quarter this year, it's TWD 661 million compared to last year, it's a 7% growth. So here, you can see that the gross margin for this year is TWD 9.1 billion compared to the TWD 8.1 billion last year, it's a 12% growth on the gross profit portion. And for the operating income, you can see that for this year, first 3 quarter, it's accumulated TWD 3.9 billion, compared to last year, TWD 3.6 billion, it's an 8% growth. So for the net income, it goes to the TWD 3.8 billion, occupied 25% of the top line and represent another 18% growth compared to the last year first 3 quarter. So for the first 9 months accumulation of the earnings per share, it goes to the TWD 9. And this is the financial result for the income statement. If we look at the balance sheet portion, you can see from next page, the highlight for the balance sheet and the financial ratios, you can see from here that the cash is pretty much the same and inventory a little bit higher than the last year-end. And again, for the long-term debt is kind of accumulating due to the capital expense for our Phase 2 expansion for our factories. So the total assets is growing like 6%. And again, for the inventory turnover, it's pretty much -- it goes to the 6 months -- a little bit over 6 months of the turnover days. And accounts receivable turnover is pretty much in line with our expectations on the 3 months. And another thing I would like to share with you is the return on equity. It goes to the 22%, which is fall in our expectations right now and has a bit of a growth compared to the last year and 18%. And for those like the cash positions, like free cash flows, it all in a pretty good positions here. This is the highlights for the balance sheet and the financial ratios. And then let's go to the operation highlights. And Jennifer, you want to share us with those product mix and those sales breakdown, please?

Okay. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Jennifer. I will go through the product mix in third quarter and give some colors for each sectors. And please refer to Slide 9. First, the ATS sectors in third quarter was similar to second quarter, but down about 11% compared to last year. Overall, in the first 3 quarters, down about 22% compared to previous year. This is mainly due to a low CapEx sentiment, particularly from EV and ESS markets. For fourth quarter, which is a typical low season for power testing -- for power industries, so we think it may be lower than third quarter, okay? Our semiconductors and photonics sectors remained strong. Third quarter is similar to second quarter, but compared to 2023, it had increase of 70%. The breakdown in third quarter was 85% IC testing related and 15% photonic sectors. And system-level testers under IC was a major shipment for fourth. And as our major HPC customers continue to increase orders, so we may have a strong sales momentum in fourth quarter. We believe this year will be the turning point for Chroma. It will be the first year our semi sales over our power business. And for turnkey sectors, in the last 3 quarters, the major delivery was an automation projects. The EV battery cell projects contribution is pretty much limited, okay? Our key highlights for this call regarding to the operation. First, our view in July, which is our second half will be better than first half, remains no change. We still have very high level of confidence our second half will be doing better than first half. The key driver were coming from our semiconductor sectors. And as you know, this year is Chroma's 40th anniversary. We're still expecting to have some achievement no matter for ourselves or our profits. So to jump to conclusion, we think we're able to have a good quarter in fourth quarter despite of the low season. So, I think, we're able to move on to Q&A. Please follow the instructions.

[Operator Instructions] First question, Wern Juan Chng, HSBC.

I hope you guys are safe given the Typhoon season suddenly. Yes, so my first question is regarding metrology. Just to clarify, you guys are doing surface film metrology for RDL, not inspection. That's my first question. I have a couple of follow-ups.

Metrology cannot be called as inspections. So metrology is -- you can't use inspection equipment for RDL. So for this kind of measurement and inspection equipment for RDL, it's normally called metrology.

Yes. So you guys are doing metrology is essentially assessing the film thickness for RDL, right?

Yes.

The film thickness for RDL.

What do you mean by film?

Is that correct? The surface film thickness. So understanding essentially the film composition.

Well, I have no -- what do you mean by film this, I don't understand. But basically, what we -- the 2 major spec we cover under our metrology. First one is the interposer alignment. Second one is measure the TSV.

Okay. That's really helpful. So essentially, I've talked to a couple of your competitors and also industry participants at the fair out there. They are talking about USD 200 million to USD 400 million in terms of the market, USD million. So my question to you is how much market share will you be willing to take? So obviously, this metrology is very small and it's new. So if you assume 10% to 20% market share to metrology, that will be about USD 40 million to USD 60 million in terms of USD contribution to your overall revenue, and that will be high single digits of 2023 revenue. Is that a reasonable assumption? Is that fair? Is that -- the way to think about it? Yes.

Okay. First, actually, foundry customers have very restricted selection process, and this kind of selection process takes out for 1 year. I only could say I have no idea how do you define for the competition and market share, but we are the only one being qualified for the new capacity ramp. So -- and another key message I could deliver is according to our foundry customers speak in the semicon Taiwan, RDL equipment, which is metrology is one of the major equipment will continue to increase and become -- I mean, the percentage-wise will be continue to increase for the overall CapEx spending. Yes.

But high single digits your revenue next year is reasonable, right? Or...

We haven't finalized our budget, we couldn't comment. Yes, sorry.

Okay. Got it. But -- okay, in my opinion, I think that's fair. But you can correct me later on if I'm wrong. Then I guess, any plans to venture into inspection or not really, you just stick with TSV and alignment?

No, we stick with metrology, but metrology spec and also metrology application will continue to increase. That's why metrology equipment have this kind of upside, not inspection. So currently, we don't consider to move into inspections.

Yes. But I guess growing from a low base, it's still -- it will be a while before you offset essentially system-level tests and EVs, right? It's not going to be anytime soon, it will take a while because…

Which one?

Metrology to the contribution to your overall sales will take a while.

No, we already start. We -- I think, we already start -- I mean, well, if you talk about new capacity, we'll start to deliver from next year. But if you talk about some -- if you say the actual timing to deliver the metrology, I think it will be started from this year, which is fourth quarter. So this is -- okay, qualification process is already complete and we got qualified, yes.

Okay. Got it. I'll hop back to the queue. I've got couple more questions.

Yes. Sure. Okay.

Next one, Haas Liu, UBS.

Congratulations on your solid results and thanks for taking my questions. And my first question would be regarding your near-term business outlook. When you talked about second half business will be better than first half. Could you quantify the percentage of their contribution to full year sales and how it would compare with the historical seasonality of that 10% in fourth quarter?

We can't give you a numbers of guidance. I mean we couldn't provide guidance with the numbers. So we already give a very clear guidance regarding to -- since you already have first 3 quarters and then you also have the first half numbers, which is close to TWD 10 billion. And then we definitely will have more than TWD 10 billion in second half. So we think fourth quarter -- we're already using the words called good. So, despite a low season. So don't consider it a low season.

Okay. Yes, that's pretty helpful. And I guess just from the magnitude of the momentum for fourth quarter, could you just try to call the folks, try to elaborate more detail about which business segments will be the main driver because you just mentioned semiconductor will still outperform?

Yes, semiconductor products.

Yes,

Yes. Semiconductors actually bringing out the overall, I mean, the fourth quarter delivery. As we mentioned before, one our major HPC customers have continued to place order. And we believe this kind of order size would meet -- majority will be booked in fourth quarter and some of it will be carried forward to next year first quarter, because the size is quite big.

Yes, that's pretty good. And for first quarter next year, what is your initial view because you still have some spillover into first quarter next year. So it seems that it is still going to be somewhat above seasonal for first half or first quarter next year, if we can assume?

Maybe we'll talk about that early next year.

Okay. Yes, no problem. That's super helpful. And my second question would be regarding the competitive landscape. I believe the first question was regarding that about your metrology and those are the SLT dynamics. So I was just wondering if you could share what is the competitive edge that you think you could hold as the key supplier to your supply chain or customers in the next 2 to 3 years?

I think customers' adoption is already -- just like I mentioned, customers do have very strict big shift in, I mean, the policies and also qualification process and normally it takes out 1 year. And this is already a conclusion. So the decision made after qualified with all the new capacity go to Chroma. So, we were in charge with the phases for coming next 2 years. So our order visibility is already up to 2026 regarding to this metrology equipment.

Okay. Yes, got it. And then lastly, before I move back to the queue because I still have some follow-up questions, but I think others can ask first. I think just regarding the margins, when I look at your third quarter business segment, it seems that semiconductor from the parent company level is actually had actually underperforming power business, although from a very high base through first half of this year. But I was just wondering, your gross margins was actually able to hold pretty resilient during the quarter. So can we expect that kind of a resilience or even the expansion could continue as you move your mix toward or still toward your mix towards more semiconductor equipment contribution?

We still insist that we will try to maintain our overall gross margin around 55% plus or minus. But we -- to indicate which sectors have a better gross margins, this has already touched our confidentiality.

Yes. I mean if you could just -- do you think you can reiterate that kind of gross margins or you can actually provide some of the upside to that structural gross margins guidance you have been providing?

We always try our best, as you know, yes.

Next one, Kevin Chen, Citi.

I hope everyone is all right there. First of all, a question on the metrology. I think we're still making the budget for next year. I was just wondering, do you have any sense on the, let's say, the rate of the revenue recognition decline?

What do you mean?

And is it going to be like a fairly straight line increase throughout the year or like it's going to be like more back-end loaded? Yes.

I think you should check with our customers. We follow everything according to their plan. But this plan, the AP7 and AP8 is already confirmed. Yes. I'm not able to disclose their schedules regarding how fast they're going to ramp up AP7 and AP8.

Sure, sure. Just give a rough sense on -- I guess, because this is a very promising business. Would you say that, this is going to be comparable to our current SLT business, let's say within the next year or 2 or maybe like half? Just some rough idea based on our current visibility.

You mean current visibility, metrology compared to sustain level testers?

Right.

I want to say both of them are major contribution for next year for sure. I think next year, our biggest drivers still come from semiconductors. Well, if I have to rank, then it's very hard. I have -- it's very difficult for us to comment on that because first, metrology is new to us, and we work really hard for it. And then as you know, capacity, especially for manufacturing parts, we only see signs of increase, but to where it's not something we're able to conclude because it depends on the user.

Okay. That's helpful. My second question, I just want to go back to SLT. I'm just wondering because we're seeing very strong order increase towards sometime midyear and second half this year. I was just wondering, how do we see this business going for next year? Could that be the case where the customer are building up pretty much most of the capacity they needed to. And before the next-generation of products, there might be a little bit of a slight window in between the 2 products.

Okay. Regarding to system-level testers, next year, we do have several catalysts, for example, like existing the biggest HPC makers and also other HPC makers. But according to our current sentiment and the preliminary views, we think the momentum is pretty much the same as this year, similar.

Okay, similar. Are the other, I guess, secondary or ASIC customers ramping up really fast?

No, because the biggest customers continue to build up more capacity. And also, we have new other customers decided to shift their order to us. For example, the one who just published their results yesterday.

Next one, Ken Chee of [ Ken Capital ].

First, for the -- this year outlook, can we read your previous comments as the consolidated revenue for this year is likely to reach record high level?

We try, but I think profitability is something we can work on.

Okay. And question is that, do you recently receive more SLT orders from key HPC customers like the leading AI GPU player?

Yes, that's true. That's why we have a peak season for the fourth quarter.

Okay. Got it. And third question for the semiconductor photonics segment already reached 46% in third quarter. Do we expect this segment to reach 50% or even 60% in next year?

I think we will have 50% in fourth quarter. And then...

About 50% in fourth quarter.

Yes. And overall, for the whole year, it should be over power business.

Okay. And how about...

And so we think this kind of breakdown will be also applied for next year.

Okay. Okay. Got you. And my last question is also for metrology.

Yes.

Are we scheduled to ship to 1 or 2 or more fabs for the foundry players based on current visibility?

Just like I said before, they continue to revise up their forecast for the new capacity. So I only could say, the revised version is more than our preliminary -- the preliminary version they provide to us.

Next question, [ Anthony Liu, Jieta ]

Dear CFO Paul and Jennifer, I hope you are staying safe in this Typhoon Day. And I have a couple of questions related to your semiconductor business. Yes. So my -- the near-term question is, we saw your semiconductor business sequentially a little bit down by like 2% in third quarter. Is this mainly impacted by the decelerated China AT demand? And do we think the semi business can turn the positive sequential growth in the fourth quarter of this year?

Okay. I think your first question is a very good question. Yes, I will consider third quarter is a transition quarter, which is China legacy start to decline and then system level testers start to taking -- is picking up. And currently, our forecast regarding to fourth quarter, just like we mentioned because the major HPC makers, they do place more orders. So yes, our semiconductor in fourth quarter will be more than third quarter.

That's very, very clear. And so talking about the SLT business. So we also saw that the SLT business realized a triple-digit growth year-to-date. And now we also see not just your parts in SLT, but also FT tester and handler have very strong momentum in this year and next year.

You mean the FT is for legacy, right?

FT, I mean, in the HPC clients.

No, we don't cover FT for HPC.

Yes, yes. I know it's other players such as like Advent Pass or other like peers. Yes. So looking forward into 2025, we just mentioned about that we can have the same momentum in this year. So the total amount or you mean year-to-year growth in the 2025 can similar to like in this year. And so it means that we can -- like we have the share gains opportunity in some CPU and GPU cases.

I think your question, the volume is same versus dollar, right?

Yes.

Yes. So what's the difference? Yes. But we already give you like our view is similar to '24. Yes.

I see. I see. So do you think like the CPU, GPU, this new cases will happen very quickly in the next year or maybe need to wait for until second half of next year?

I can't disclose which quarter we're going to deliver, but we already have these new customers for short.

No problem.

Okay. But I think according to the major HPC makers, I think we're even not seeing they are slowing down. So...

Yes, it's very grateful, because the demand is very strong. Yes.

Because you probably heard recently, they decide to increase the testing times. So initially, they plan to just test for 1 hour, but now has been extended to 2 and probably move on to 2.5 hours. So it depends on the service results and performance, it's highly possible to go like maybe over 2.5 hours. So I think system level test takes a very important role compared to other process, we believe.

I see. It's very, very great news. Okay. So I think my last question is regarding to your metrology business. I saw like the market is very excited to this business and first, congratulations for your like cutting into this CoWoS blue ocean market.

Yes.

And I'm very curious about that the reason why the foundry client choose our product is because the 79 81 model can detect RDL layer precisely in the CoWoS L like in this process? Or is there any reason that they choose our product, but not other peers?

Of course, we are the local small player if we got qualified, definitely, we are not only outstanding on the performance, but also the throughput. So yes, I think we will definitely have other opportunity for the advanced package, not only limited to CoWoS.

I see. Okay. So my last question will be, it seems like Blackwell, this chip is tended to be packaged by CoWoS L, but not the CoWoS S. So do we think like we can replace the former metrology machine in foundry customers. So it's not just NP7 and AP8. Do we think we can have more opportunity in the AP6 or even older fab?

We are trying on it...

Next one, Arthur Lai, Macquarie.

Hope you stay safe and dry. So I think a lot of analysts and Jennifer already discussed with the product. So maybe I switch gear to the Page 7. I do surprise about the free cash flow actually for the 3 quarters, we already reached TWD 1.9 billion and also the year-over-year comparison is also surprising. I guess, there's some good things going on is driven by business. So my question is quite simple. Can we talk about like long-term shareholder return plan or dividend policy? Anything to share with our long-term investors?

You mean -- but I think our ROE actually reached our targets, which is like over 20%. So you mean.

So will we consider to increase the payout ratio in the future?

I think the 70%, I think right now is pretty much the highest one.

We have extra...

We have extra cash, yes. But right now, I think we still maintain that somewhere like 70% payout ratio.

Yes, yes. Good enough. And the other thing is if we look at the -- in the future, we have a more semi and photonics business in terms of the total revenue. Will it change our free cash flow? For example, will it become healthy, healthy, better and stronger?

I think our new factories, I mean, our Phase 2 is under progress at the moment, and then the Phase 2 will not be ready until '26. So I think if your question point on like improved cash flows, maybe not for these 2 years. Yes.

Okay. Okay. Got you. Yes, the reason I ask this question is, do we have like -- so what's the account receivable difference between the ATS and also the semiconductor business? So is all the same AIoT days or it's actually case by case different by the segment?

I think, it's pretty similar. I don't think it will be -- yes. I don't think that will be a very big difference on that.

Okay. So yes, I don't have any question. Congrats for the strong result.

[Operator Instructions] Next one, Wern Juan Chng, HSBC.

Just a couple of follow-up questions again. So, on metrology, right, just to clarify, obviously, your other competitors like Dragonfly and the product and all that, they have a very strong software AI learning platform, which essentially allow them to assess alignment CSV better. And so my thinking is that -- my thought is just that -- you will likely be second source supply 10% to 20% unless -- obviously, the trust is there between you and your main customer for sure. But I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on how you are going to compete with this U.S., Israeli competitors moving forward. What is your competitive edge in product? And I have a couple of follow-up questions.

Wern Juan, okay, several issues I would like to clarify it, because just I keep repeat, these vendor selection process already complete, and this is very restrict and long-term process. If one's being conclude, there won't be a competition issue. And the only thing I could tell you today is, our current order on hand is already -- I mean, based on the units, is already over the existing makers. So because at that time, our total order on hand is already more than the existing -- current existing vendors. Okay. So -- okay, let me recap a bit, okay? The conclusions we just made back to maybe August and September is new capacity all go to Chroma. And how to replace existing, there will be another issue subject to discussion. So how to take action and how to replace will be subject to the clients' strategies, and we are unable to comment. So there won't be so-called market share issue.

That's extremely helpful, Jennifer. My second question is, you mentioned 2x to 2.5x increase in test time. So SLT is obviously 20 minutes more than 1 to 2 minutes for existing burn-in final test, et cetera.

No system level tester -- hold on system-level tester for Edge series, testing time is 0.5 hour to 1 hour. Initially, the plan for Blackwell, which is GB series around 1 hours. But because recently, they find that GB series is too critical and too complicated. So they decide to extend 2 hours to 2.5 hours. This is already decision made.

So Blackwell's offer is 2x to 2.5x. Is that correct -- if I mean, is that correct?

Yes, this is already the final decision. So that is why, I guess, all of us got the increasing orders. Remember, I mentioned to you before, a number of units, it depends on the cycle time. If the cycle time increase, then unit number will have to increase.

Okay. Okay. Your EV -- okay, last question. Your EV power orders, right, given some of your key customers have reported over the last week or so, about -- they are guiding about 30% to 40% decline. Your EV power orders are about 30% down this year. Fair to assume EV power declined by half, EV power declined by half, right, essentially?

I haven't really...

Because the U.S. is weak, Europe, I mean, give or take, plus or minus, still having competition from China, still strong, but if you combine U.S. and Europe together, they still decline by half. Is that something you have internally assessed or comment.

Okay. That's a fact. We -- just like we mentioned, we think the power business down about 22% in the first 3 quarters mainly come from the low sentiment CapEx from EV and ESS sectors. And we even guide like fourth quarter will be lower than third quarter. So, how much will be down to this is not something -- as I said, we couldn't give or provide a guidance with numbers. But I think this kind of guidance is already very clear.

Just to share with you -- I mean, some of your customers at least about 30% to 50% down. But I think that's within range, your semi and metrology should offset.

Okay. We are taking the last questions.

Next one, Ken Chee of [ Ken Capital ].

I just want to clarify some previous answers in case I mislead. So first of all, for the SLT, do you just mention the momentum for next year could be similar to the momentum for this year?

Yes, overall semiconductor sector system level testers. This is based on the customers' preliminary order guidance.

Okay. Okay. And second is about the metrology. You just say for the all new capacity, that will all go to Chroma, right?

New capacity, yes.

Okay. And then so do you expect it to be multiple billion revenue for next year?

Yes. Okay. Thank you, everyone's participation. So operator, can you close out the call? Thank you.

Thank you.

All right. Thank you for all your questions. That will be the end of the conference. We thank you for your participation in Chroma's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.chroma.com.tw/investor/index under the Investor Relations section. You may now disconnect. Take care, and goodbye.