Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining this Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's session is being recorded. It is my pleasure to turn the floor over for opening remarks and introductions to Mr. Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results, along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results section near the middle of the Investor Overview page. . On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Spray; and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston, Chief Investment Officer, Steve Solaria, and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Mark Shambaugh and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Andy Schnell. Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared and according with statutory accounting rules and therefore, is not reconciled to GAAP. Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. Our second quarter and first half results continue to reflect consistent execution of our strategy including maintaining pricing discipline in a softening property casualty insurance market. While catastrophe losses for the quarter were modestly higher than our longer-term average Other metrics for our property casualty operations were generally in line with our expectations. Net income of nearly $1.3 billion for the second quarter of 2026 included recognition of $882 million on an after-tax basis for the increase in fair value of equity securities still held. Non-GAAP operating income was $224 million for the quarter compared with $311 million a year ago. The 100.8% second quarter 2026 property casualty combined ratio increased by 5.9 percentage points compared with second quarter last year including an increase of 2.3 points for catastrophe losses. Our current accident year combined ratio before catastrophe losses for the first 6 months of 2026 was 87.8%, fairly consistent with the 87.7% reported through the first 6 months of 2025. Turning to premium growth. Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 3% for the quarter. Slowed growth reflects pricing discipline as our underwriters continue to emphasize pricing and risk segmentation on a policy-by-policy basis in their underwriting decisions. Estimated average renewal price increases for most lines of business during the second quarter were lower than the first quarter of 2026, but still at levels we believe were healthy. Commercial lines and excess and surplus lines averaged increases near the high end of the low single-digit percentage range. Our Personal Lines segment included personal auto and homeowner increases in the high single-digit percentage range. While market conditions have tempered premium growth, we believe our focus on providing outstanding service and our deep relationships with independent insurance agents keep us positioned well for long-term success. Next, I'll comment on second quarter performance by Insurance segment compared with a year ago. Commercial Lines grew net written premiums 3% with a 104.1% combined ratio that increased by 11.2 percentage points, including 4.9 points from higher catastrophe losses. Personal Lines grew net written premiums 1% and impacted by lower new business premiums that reflect softening market conditions. The combined ratio for personal lines was 99.9%, 2.1 percentage points better than last year, including a decrease of 1.6 points from lower catastrophe losses. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 8% and and produced an excellent combined ratio of 90.5%. Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global continue to contribute to premium growth as well as diversifying risk of our insurance operations. Cincinnati Re's second quarter 2026 net written premiums increased by 16%. Its combined ratio was an outstanding 87.6%. Cincinnati Global's combined ratio of 110.8% along with premium growth of 1%. Our life insurance subsidiary had another strong quarter, including 15% net income growth. In addition, term life insurance earned premiums grew 5%. I'll end my commentary with a summary of our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our VCR was 7.9% for the second quarter of 2026. Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed 1.4%. Higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed 6.5%. Now, I'll turn it over to Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, for additional insights regarding our financial performance.

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income continued to grow at a nice pace, up 12% in the second quarter '26, driven by strong cash flow from insurance operations and higher yields on the fixed maturity portfolio. Bond interest income grew 14% and net purchases of fixed maturity securities totaled $316 million for the quarter and $940 million for the first 6 months of the year. . The second quarter pretax average yield of 5.08% for the fixed maturity portfolio was up 15 basis points compared with last year. The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during the second quarter of this year was 5.66%. Dividend income was up 3% for the quarter. Net sales of equity securities totaled $678 million for the quarter and $732 million on a year-to-date basis. While that portfolio rebalancing activity was higher than a typical quarter, it's similar to our actions during the third quarter of 2024 and does not represent a change in our investment approach. Valuation changes in aggregate for the second quarter were favorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net gain was $1.3 billion for the equity portfolio and $79 million for the bond portfolio. At the end of the second quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $8.6 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $8.9 billion, while the fixed maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $326 million. Cash flow continued to benefit investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for the first 6 months of 2026 was $1.4 billion, up 29% from a year ago. Briefly moving to expense management. Our second quarter 2026 property casualty underwriting expense ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points due to an increase in commission expenses and timing of recognition of certain expenses. On a 6-month basis, the ratio increased only 0.3 of a percentage point. Next, I'll comment on loss reserves. Our approach remains consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate loss and loss expenses by accident year and line of business. For the first 6 months of 2026, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $981 million, including $845 million for the IBNR portion. During the second quarter, we experienced $42 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 1.7 percentage points. On an all-lines basis by accident year, net favorable reserve development for the first 6 months of 2026 included favorable $127 million for '25, favorable $42 million for '24 and an unfavorable $46 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '24. Our commercial casualty line of business experienced $14 million of unfavorable reserve development during the second quarter, which was driven by on older accident year that included updated estimates for ultimate losses for a small number of insurance. I'll conclude my comments with second quarter capital management highlights. We paid $143 million in dividends to shareholders. In addition, we repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares at an average price per share of $161.93 and or $216 million. We believe our balance sheet continues to provide significant flexibility and financial strength. Parent company cash and marketable securities at quarter end was $5.7 billion. Debt to total capital remains under 10%. Our quarter end book value was a record high, $108.64 per share. with nearly $17 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity, providing ample capacity for the profitable growth of our insurance operations. Now I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

Thanks, Mike. We see many positives in our results through the first 6 months. As we head into the back half of the year, we will continue demonstrating our expertise in underwriting pricing and risk selection and building strong relationships with our appointed independent agents. I'm confident that we have the people and plans in place to finish the year strong. Before we open the call for questions, I'd like to recognize Dennis McDaniel. As many of you know, this is Dennis' final earnings call before retirement. Over the past [indiscernible] years, he has been an outstanding ambassador for our company, building strong relationships with the investment community while helping communicate our strategy and performance with transparency and integrity. We are grateful for his contributions, and we wish him the best in this next chapter of life. As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Solaria, Marc Schambow, and Andy Schnell. Jim, please open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will hear first today from Michael Phillips at Oppenheimer.

I want to thanks to Dennis for all years of great work and one of the best in the business. So all the best to you on us as we go to the next chapter. I appreciate everything. I guess first question would be a topic that's not that new, it comes up every now and then, but Steve, I want to hear your thoughts that maybe might be updated here. On the commercial lines, current accident year had some spike. It looks like in large loss activity, $2 million or more. I think typically, when this comes up, it's small, it's more of a quarterly anomaly, maybe not so much of a trend, but we've seen this now a couple of quarters in a row from the other companies. And I'm wondering, I guess, to the extent you're worried this might be a trend that we need to watch more closely? And to what extent does that impact your comments on commercial lines rates at a healthy level?

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Mike Sell has got the specifics on the large accounts. But yes, we Mike, we've talked about this in the past as well. Every time we have a large loss in any line of business. We do an after-action review on it to see if there's anything that could go towards a trend I think what you're seeing here again is just inherent volatility. It's very few claims. There's variability that goes with it. And so I don't see any trend on the, specifically on those large loss pickup. But Mike?

Yes, I would say -- thanks for the question, it's Mike Sewell. So on a year-to-date basis, we did have about new current accident year losses, large losses. So that was about $112 million compared to the prior year '26 new losses -- that was about $101 million, and that was through Q2 of 2025. I would say with that related to the property, the property was up about $20 million year-over-year on large losses. And it was really primarily related to 1 large loss that that did reach our working treaty on that. So that was hitting that for about $15 million. But overall, when you take a look at our current year greater than $2 million, the $120 million this year versus $101 million last year. You compare that with our earned premiums both years, it was only a 2.2% loss ratio. So very consistent. And I would echo what Steve just said that there's no indication of unexpected concentration of large losses by risk category, region or what have you.

And Mike, you mentioned the pricing, I would just add in there. The Obviously, our actuaries are looking at large loss trends, frequency trends, all of that together for pure premium. And I would just add that the I'll say, specifically in commercialized. I think that's where you were directing it. The new business pricing metrics that we use, the cope underwriting that we -- every underwriter does both new and renewal is holding up really well, too.

Next question would be on Mike's comments on the expense management. You guys are known as clearly 1 of the best agency relationships with the business. But I guess, how do you think -- do you think at all about maybe any changes in strategy on how you approach your agents as we get deeper into the self-market and maybe what that might mean if anything at all, for pressure on the expense ratio from here?

Yes. As far as -- are you talking commissions, Mike, for agencies.

Certainly commissions, yes. But anything I guess, more specific on commissions. And is there any pressure to changed the commission structure to get more business in the door with rates going the way they are and again, what that means both pricing and the expense ratio.

Yes. No, okay. Thanks. We can -- Mike and I can bifurcate this because there's efficiencies that we're working on, on the corporate side to continue to drive down our non-commission expense ratio. But 1 thing that we're, I think, extremely proud of as a company is we measure ourselves on is how we compensate the independent agents that represent us. If you look at our commission schedule, just our primary commission schedule. It's very fair. But I don't think it's going to stand out to you in any one line of business. It's just fair across the board. By by design and deliberately, we have a very, I think, a very fair above-average profit sharing contract with our agents. And it is driven off of underwriting profit for a profitable business, they send our way. And we feel that when an agent writes profitable business with us that we'll share more of that with them than many of our competitors, that's again, by design, it's our agency focus and aligns us with our agencies. So we feel like our compensation to agents is already the strongest, and we see no need for amending that. And as far as getting pressure, I think our agents recognize that we are a top payer across the board. And so we don't see a lot of pressure there.

And I would say, Mike, on the non-commission side, we continue to strive of being more efficient, watching our cost, Costs are going up. And I've said before is that we are trying to keep the increase of our noncommission costs lower than the growth in premiums. And so I think as you see premiums slowing down, we're going to have to double down our efforts on watching our costs, but -- we still need to invest, invest in technology, our people, et cetera, et cetera. So my job might be a little bit harder, but I think we'll be able to do it. .

Our next question will come from Gregory Peters at Raymond James.

So in the press release, when you get into the consolidated results, the first bullet point talks about the 3% growth in the second quarter and you call out price increases, I think that's pretty straightforward where you're getting price where you're not. You also see a higher level of insured exposures. I wanted you to comment on that. I also -- you also called out the second quarter growth in Cincinnati Re and the global underwriting business. And -- those are 2 areas that I would think might not be growing considering your comments about rising competition in the marketplace. So that would -- that's the first area that I wanted to focus on my questions on.

Sure, Greg. And out of the release, we were talking about the 3% net written premium growth on a consolidated basis. About 2/3 of that is coming from rate and about 1/3 from exposure. So just think increased sales payrolls in the stability side or just property values, inflationary property values in general there. On Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, again, since that global, net written premiums were up 1%. So they are feeling pressure primarily from larger property shared layer, direct in fact, that are showing pricing and underwriting discipline there. So their growth has been under pressure. And then Cincinnati Re, that's obviously an assumed reinsurance operation can be a little more opportunistic. They can -- they're a little more nimble, can move in and out of different covers. And so their growth can also be a little more seasonal, Greg. So the 16% growth is strong. We feel good about the underwriting and the pricing there as well.

Okay. Fair enough. And then I'll pivot for my follow-up question to the personal lines business. where the growth is slowing down new business agency new businesses down. Maybe you can frame how you're thinking about the top line for that business going forward, considering the pressures on pricing. Auto, looks like it's flat or up a little bit home, up a little bit better. Just give us some perspective of how you're thinking about this going forward?

Yes. We're thinking long term as we do with everything there. At the end of I'll call at the end of 2025, Greg, over the last 4 years, we doubled our personal lines operation and premiums. So with our balance sheet, able to take advantage of a really difficult, tough, hard market and personal lines. So the slowing in premiums, both for net written in for new business has been expected I think it's still healthy. The pricing there is still healthy. We still have -- candidly, we still have room for margin improvement in Personal Lines. We're on a good path. We're still earning rate in, but the volatility of cat, we all can see it. We all know it. and we have to underwrite and price for cats. So Personal Lines is doing a nice job with rate -- with terms conditions, with risk selection of driving down their non-cat loss ratio and taking action to curtail that cat or manage it as well as possible. So we still have room for some margin improvement there. But the slowing growth has been -- it's been predictable, quite frankly. We're comfortable with it, and it's profit first there. So they're going to continue to show underwriting price underwriting discipline as well.

Our next question will come from Mike Zaremski at BMO. I believe we -- Mr. Zaremski, please resignal, sir. We'll move forward to Josh Shanker at Bank of America.

Yes, as I said on the last call, I'm the President [indiscernible] club. So I really -- I appreciate everything he's done for the company and done for shareholders over the years. In terms of homeowners, can you talk the timing a little bit of re-underwriting the book -- and when you sort of take pricing and you look at the book and how many properties you have that maybe don't fit what you want at the current pricing? And can you go through the quarter and when all that came together? .

Well, as far as, say, re-underwriting personal lines or homeowner Josh. That's just -- that's been a -- I don't know if there's any moment in time other than most recently post California wildfire we took a hard look at California and just took a different view of the risk for homeowners, specifically, aggregations, different terms, conditions, pricing. So -- but beyond that, it's just been an ongoing process of making sure that we're getting the rate that we need, handling Midwest convective storm, terms, conditions and pricing, more on our middle market, homeowner business there. So it's really just been an ongoing process over time and continues.

Look, if someone asked me 6 months ago to identify one of the key growth targets at Cincinnati. It's always appointing new agents and getting a higher share of their business. But the high net worth opportunity is obviously a very clear opportunity. And given the slowdown in growth this quarter, does that change the trajectory of how we should be thinking about Cincinnati growth longer term in the high net worth business?