Citycon Oyj (CTY1S) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Citycon's Fourth Quarter Results Audiocast. Last night, we published our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. All results materials can be found from the Investors section of our website. My name is Sakari Järvelä, and I'm the Vice President for Investor Relations and Corporate Finance and will be hosting the call today. With me here in the call, as usual, are our CEO, Mr. Scott Ball; and our CFO, Mr. Bret McLeod. We will kick off the presentation by Scott going through a summary of our business and operational highlights for the fourth quarter and the full year. Following that, Bret will go through our financial results and our financial guidance for the full year 2023. After the presentations, there will be a separate Q&A session, so we will be opening the line for questions from the audience. With that, I will pass on to Scott. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Sakari. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm very pleased to report a strong finish to 2022 as our strategy of creating necessity-based grocery and municipal anchored urban hubs continued to produce excellent results for both the fourth quarter and the full year, which both met and some instances exceeded our guidance. Operationally, like-for-like NRI increased 11.9% in Q4 and 6.6% in 2022 for the full year compared to the previous year. We were pleased to see continued strong demand for our centers from both new and existing tenants, as evidenced by our excellent leasing activity with 174,000 square meters of signed leases in 2022 with positive leasing spreads of 2%, resulting in retail occupancy up 120 bps to 95.4%. At the same time, average rent per square meter increased by EUR 1.1 to a new EUR 23.7 per square meter for the year. We also continued to see very strong growth in both footfall and tenant sales. In 2022, like-for-like tenant sales increased by 5.2% and footfall 9.7% compared to the previous year. Notably, tenant sales are already 6.2% above 2019 levels, again, highlighting the quality and attractiveness of Citycon's grocery and municipal anchored centers and their resilience. On the transaction front, for the full year, we sold 4 noncore assets for EUR 266 million at approximate book value, which provides further evidence of the attractiveness and desirability of necessity-based inflation-protected Nordic retail assets to institutional investors. We continue to demonstrate the inherent value and liquidity of Citycon's portfolio. In December, we sold 2 additional noncore assets in Norway for EUR 120.8 million. This transaction represents the first tranche of our asset sales target that we announced in November, which was to sell EUR 500 million of noncore assets over the next 24 months. With this recent divestment, our remaining disposition target now stands at approximately EUR 380 million before the end of '24. Further, these sales also bolstered the validity of our underlying portfolio asset values, particularly given that these transactions were for noncore properties. In addition to demonstrating strong private market demand for retail assets, we continued our disciplined capital allocation by using sales proceeds to repurchase our bonds and take advantage of the large discounts and dislocation in the secondary markets. Through these actions, we reduced our future interest expense while also improving our overall balance sheet and debt profile. During 2022, Citycon repurchased EUR 112.3 million of notional bonds for approximately EUR 102.5 million of cash at an average yield of 4.9%. Subsequent to year-end, we launched a public tender to repurchase a combination of our hybrid bonds and our bonds maturing in October of '24. In that transaction, we deployed EUR 41.4 million of cash to repurchase EUR 57.4 million of notional bonds, resulting in a cash savings of EUR 16 million to par and annual cash interest savings of EUR 2.1 million. We are committed to maintaining our investment-grade balance sheet and have a strong and flexible financial position with no significant near-term maturities until the end of '24 and 100% of our assets unencumbered. This position of strength provides various levers we can pull to execute our strategy and continued portfolio transformation to core necessity-based centers with organic opportunities for growth. As evidenced by our actions in '22 and the early part of '23, further strengthening our balance sheet and credit metrics remains a top priority. Despite challenging macroeconomic headwinds, the market valuation for our income-producing assets remained relatively static. Independent appraisers marked a slight decrease of EUR 800,000 for the consolidated portfolio, excluding Torvbyen, a small noncore asset in Norway, which was marked down EUR 15 million in Q4 as a result of a closure for structural damage. When including maintenance CapEx and IFRS 16 adjustments, the decline, excluding Torvbyen, was approximately EUR 40 million or 1%. It is clear that while there were a few comps for appraisers to use in determining values, the fact that the company sold 4 assets over the year at values approximating book value underscore the fact that this portfolio remains attractive to asset-level investors. Phase 1 of Lippulaiva, our newest asset, successfully opened in March, generating strong operational results through its first 9 months with retail occupancy at over 96%. Notably, grocery source account for approximately 45% of the tenant mix and necessity-based goods represent over 70% of Lippulaiva's 44,000 square meters of gross leasable area. Lippulaiva is a true testament to Citycon's strategy of recycling and redeploying capital into high-quality irreplaceable assets in growing urban areas. The center is built on top of a brand-new metro station, which opened in early December '22. It's also the world's first retail center to be awarded Smart Buildings gold certificate due to it being carbon neutral and a shining example of our commitment to sustainability. In addition to the retail offerings, the first residential tower at Lippulaiva opened in December and the remaining 3 towers in the first quarter of 2023. This will create additional demand for the property and diversified revenue streams for the company. We're very pleased with how Lippulaiva has been received by the local community and are confident that we'll continue to develop into the social and commercial hub of the area. It's also important to note that following the completion of Lippulaiva center and the residential towers, we now have minimal capital commitments in 2023 and anticipate our annual capital expenditures to be materially lower in '23 than in prior years. Our unique assets function as last-mile logistics centers for the delivery of daily goods and services for our communities in the largest cities in the Nordics, combined with direct connection to public transportation. Our high mix of credit tenants are less reliant on consumer discretionary spending, which provides a level of resilience and stability reflected in our results that bode well as we look forward into 2023. We are well positioned operationally with a proven stable business model that has performed well regardless of macroeconomic pressures. This combination is enhanced by the fact that 93% of our leases are linked to indexation, which we will stand to benefit from in 2023. This provides meaningful organic growth for NRI, which is reflected in the outlooks we are providing today. We also had the benefit of having a low occupancy cost ratio of 9.1% and increasing tenant sales in an inflationary environment. This positions Citycon to increase rents and service charges without jeopardizing our tenant's ability to continue to run profitable businesses. Further, we will benefit from a full year of Lippulaiva being open in addition to starting to benefit from the residents, which will be coming online early this year. Taken together, these factors give us confidence that '23 results will continue to build on our strong performance in '22, even after factoring in the recent Norwegian asset sales late last year. Our guidance reflects the benefit from inflation as indexation pushes our rents higher not only for '23, but also future years, the growth of which will compound and grow exponentially. As a result, our estimated outlook for '23 direct operating profit is to be in the range of EUR 174 million to EUR 192 million, EPRA EPS, EUR 0.69 to EUR 0.81 and adjusted EPRA EPS, EUR 0.51 to EUR 0.63. With that, I'll turn it over to Bret to talk about our financial results.

Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. As Scott said, it was a good quarter and a strong end to the year as our results came in above both our latest guidance and consensus estimates, led by like-for-like net rental income of 11.9%. Looking at the details of our direct EPRA results for the quarter on Slide 9. Standing net rental income growth was up an impressive 10.2% for the standing portfolio, which excludes dispositions and includes Lippulaiva. This was a result of both GRI and service charge income outperforming our expectations and property operating expenses tempered by a milder winter, resulting in energy costs that were slightly lower than we had anticipated. It is also worth noting that NRI for the quarter would have been approximately EUR 500,000 higher, if not for the partial closure of our Torvbyen asset in Norway, which Scott mentioned in his remarks. This growth flowed nicely standing direct operating profit where we were up 13.2% as G&A was in line with Q4 2021 in addition to a onetime benefit of EUR 500,000 related to an older project-related government sustainability grant in Norway. While our standing results were well above the same time last year, it is also worth noting that even including all of our recent dispositions represented in the all table figures to the right. Net rental income and direct operating profit was still up nearly 4% and 7%, respectively. As a result of this performance and the reduction in share count due to our strategic share repurchase late last year, both quarterly standing EPRA EPS and adjusted EPRA EPS were up 35.8% and 51.9%, representing strong improvements in the entirety of our operations. Included in our EPRA EPS results was a onetime benefit we received related to direct current taxes in Norway of approximately EUR 1.2 million, which were lower than estimated due to fixed asset write-downs in our local taxation. Moving to our full year results on Slide 10. The story remains consistent as good overall results in 2022 were driven by like-for-like NRI growth of 6.6%. Net rental income growth for the standing portfolio was 8.2% and up 0.7% for the total portfolio, which again includes all of our disposed properties. It is encouraging to see this type of growth in 2022 as it did not include the full benefits of inflation and indexation that we expect to receive in 2023. It also was very encouraging to continue to see direct evidence of the strength and stability of our Nordic necessity-based grocery-anchored retail portfolio, particularly in the face of a challenging macroeconomic environment last year, which included high inflation and increased energy costs. Year-to-date, direct operating profit was up 8.3% to the standing portfolio, translating to EPRA EPS up 17.8% versus the same time last year, which was driven partly by our share repurchases in late 2021. It is again worth noting that even excluding dispositions, our 2022 EPRA EPS was up nearly 4% for the full year. For the standing portfolio, adjusted EPRA EPS was up 13.2% year-to-date as we issued a hybrid bond in late June 2021, which resulted in a difficult comp for this metric in the first half of 2022. EPRA NRV per share was EUR 11.01 at year-end, but was heavily impacted by FX throughout 2022 as a result of materially weaker NOK and SEK. Excluding this FX impact, EPRA NRV per share would have been EUR 0.79 higher or EUR 11.80 per share. On Slide 11, we have provided bridges for both net rental income and EPRA earnings for the full year. In 2022, redevelopment projects, primarily driven by Lippulaiva, contributed an incremental EUR 6.4 million to NRI, while like-for-like properties provided an incremental EUR 9.4 million, driven by a combination of improved occupancy and indexation. Again, these gains were offset by lost NRI from dispositions of EUR 13.4 million and a slight loss from FX weakness. Looking to the complete EPRA earnings bridge for the year, inclusive of asset sales, the incremental benefit of improved NRI mainly offset -- was mainly offset by direct admin expenses and direct current and deferred taxes. The higher direct admin expenses were due to the accounting treatment of CEO IFRS share-based compensation, which we have discussed in prior quarters. The largest negative incremental impact on EPRA earnings came from higher direct current and deferred taxes, again, due to the taxable profit year-to-date versus the same period last year, offset by the onetime benefit in Norway that I mentioned earlier. Looking to fair value changes on Slide 12. As Scott said, our market appraised values were effectively flat, excluding Torvbyen, with a slight increase in cap rates of 10 basis points, offset by higher future valuation cash flows due to the forecasted indexation. Including Torvbyen, CapEx, IFRS 16 and onetime accounting adjustments in Finland related to capitalized interest in real estate taxes at Lippulaiva that we recorded in Q3, net fair value was down EUR 56.5 million or just slightly over 1%. Again, as mentioned, EPRA NRV per share was EUR 11.01, but would have been EUR 11.80 per share, if not for the impact of weakness in both the NOK and SEK. As we continue to stress, addressing the balance sheet remains our top priority, as evidenced by the asset sales target we initiated last year. We realized success on that program with the sale of our 2 Norwegian assets in December 2021 for over EUR 120 million, leaving us with EUR 380 million remaining to be completed by the end of 2024. Further, and subsequent to quarter end, we were active in the capital markets, repurchasing debt via tender transaction that allowed us to tender EUR57.4 million of notes, a mixture of our bonds maturing in 2024 and both of our hybrid issuances at material discounts to par. For the full year 2022, we repurchased EUR112.3 million of notional bonds at an attractive 4.9% yield, and we will continue to view repurchasing our debt as one of our top capital allocation strategies, providing good returns while deleveraging and strengthening our credit profile as well. As noted on Slide 14, we continue to be focused on maintaining a strong, flexible and investment-grade balance sheet with ample liquidity. Our weighted average interest rate stands at 2.4% with 97% of our rates fixed, and we have no significant maturities until October of 2024. Further, we ended 2022 with total available liquidity of EUR578 million and 100% of our assets unencumbered, and we have multiple levers to maintain this balance sheet flexibility. As Scott mentioned, I would note that with the completion of Phase 1 of Lippulaiva, we anticipate that CapEx will be materially lower than the past several years, which increases our free cash flow and provides greater capital allocation flexibility. As noted on Slide 15, our credit metrics remain stable across the board with the exception of net debt to EBITDA, which improved 5% for the full year and now stands at 9.5x. I also would point out that similar to the impact I mentioned on EPRA NRV per share, changes in FX also impacted IFRS LTV in 2022. Excluding the impact of currency changes, our LTV would have been lower by approximately 90 basis points or 40.5% versus the 41.4% we've recorded. On Slide 16, you will note our initial 2023 guidance, which builds on the consensus beat we recorded to end 2022 and reflects the positive impact of indexation in our markets that we anticipate this year. As Scott said, for the full year 2023, we estimate the direct operating profit will range from EUR 174 million to EUR 192 million with a midpoint of EUR 183 million. EPRA EPS will range from EUR 0.69 to EUR 0.81 with a midpoint of EUR 0.75, while adjusted EPRA EPS will range from EUR 0.51 to EUR 0.63 with a midpoint of EUR 0.57. I would point out that adjusted for EPS simply includes a deduction of hybrid interest expenses from the midpoint of our guided EPS figure. All 3 midpoints are strong improvement over 2022 results. And when compared to standing, which excludes the impact of our recent dispositions would be up an impressive 10%, 10% and 16%, respectively. Lastly, and importantly, we have reaffirmed our intention to pay a EUR 0.50 dividend in 2023. So as Scott said, despite continued macro and geopolitical uncertainty, we are confident in the performance of our assets, the stability of our business and the strength of our necessity-based Nordic-centric strategy. With that, we are now happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Anssi Raussi from SEB.

Gentlemen, thank you for the presentation. I have a few questions. And the first one is about your rents in 2023. And sorry if I missed this, but how much of rent hikes you are planning to implement in 2023?

I think probably, we're estimating an average rent indexation, I'd say it's somewhere between 7% and 9% generally.

Okay. That's clear. And then about your CapEx level in 2023. You said that the CapEx level should be materially lower, but any number to give here like EUR 50 million, EUR 70 million, how much?

Yes. Actually, I would think it would be higher than that. We estimate somewhere between -- lower by 50% to 55%. So in 2022, we did about EUR 172 million of CapEx. So it would be EUR 50 million to EUR 55 million is our estimate for 2023, less than that.

Okay, clear. And the last one from me is about your dividend. So how do you see your capital allocation because I think that it would be more optimal to repurchase more debt than pay dividend. But how do you see the situation? And how do you compare to like these different options regarding your capital allocation?

Yes. Anssi, it's a great question. I think as we think about capital allocation, as I've said before, we have many different options available to us. I would tell you that GAAP repurchasing, as I mentioned in my comments, and Scott mentioned as well, that continues to be a clear focus for us, and that is the #1 priority. I think the good news with the results that we're posting today and the guidance that we're giving today, 2 important things are happening. One -- and they relate to both of your questions. The first is we're seeing significant improvement in cash flow in 2023, which gives us the ability to continue to improve the coverage of our dividend. The second is, as I also mentioned, we have materially lower CapEx that also supports the dividend. So for us, I think it's a combination of both doing debt repurchases and deleveraging as well as continuing to pay a strong dividend, which we think our shareholders and investors...

I think we have a very strong program in place. Bret has a road map for the debt maturity schedules and how we deal with that. At the same time, we have other stakeholders that we want to make sure their interests are looked after as well. So I think we're trying to be very balanced in terms of how we approach this. Balance sheet is critical, as Bret said, but we also want to make sure our shareholders feel like we're looking out for their interests as well.

Okay. Clear. And actually, one more from me, and it's about your divestments. So you have still like EUR 380 million of properties to be divested -- or your plan is to divest this. So have you made any significant progress or still all the options on the table? Or what's the situation there?

Yes. We are actually very pleasantly surprised at the amount of inward calls we are fielding from investors who have targeted specific assets that they have some interest in. At the same time, we have gone to market with a group of noncore assets in Finland. We have an IM that's out, and we're talking to -- I think we're -- there's 15 different investors who have -- who have taken the IM and are doing some amount of work on it. So I would say I am more than confident that -- we hit that target well before the planned date of 2024. I just -- there's a lot of pent-up demand and there's a lot of cash that's been sitting on the sideline. And I think when you look at the types of assets we own, being as resilient as they are grocery-anchored, less -- with indexation built in, and then the pricing and the size of the assets that we're selling are such that the buyer pool is significantly larger than if you were trying to sell a really large asset. So I'm extremely confident that we're going to do this well in advance of when we set the guidelines that we -- the guidance that we provided to people.

The next question comes from unavailable.

Hello? Am I audible?

Hello? Good morning.

This is Neeraj from Barclays here. I have one question on hybrids. Given it makes up a good version of your cap stake, how are you thinking about the current state of the market?

Look, I would say, as we noted in our January 2023 transaction that we just completed, we think the hybrids are certainly a dislocated market. And I think we continue to monitor them. We did -- there are certain requirements, as you know, that we want to make sure that we are, as I said earlier in my remarks, we're committed to maintaining our investment-grade rating. So we are serving how we can address those in a thoughtful manner. We did repurchase some at a steep discount up to the 10% threshold. We're still within that 10% threshold, but we're still observing. But I would tell you that we're looking at -- we have a lot of time. They don't -- the first tranche doesn't mature until late -- or early 2025. So I think we're being thoughtful about those. We continue to monitor them. But I think the key component for the company is we're not going to do anything that jeopardizes our investment-grade credit rating.

Please state your name and company. Please go ahead.

This is Paul Gorrie of Thames River Capital. Just checking, you can hear me okay?

Yes, we can hear you.

Perfect. Just a quick one for me on the 2024 bond. Obviously, I know you've been buying back portions. But just if you can provide color on what the refinancing plan is on that and kind of the timing? Is the intention, given the state of the bond market, just to sort of wait it out. So a little bit closer? And I guess, if you can give any kind of color on -- effectively, what kind of marginal cost you're looking at? What kind of refi cost might be and alternative sources to you? And then just secondly, with that, just to confirm that in the guidance as provided, there's no refi assumptions in there at the moment?

Yes. Guidance provided, I would tell you, first, that we do have some initial repurchase -- additional repurchase of bonds in that guidance. And we would assume that, if that happens, we would be having some impact to earnings on that. So I think we've taken that into account in our 2023 guidance. So that's the good news. I would say in 2024 bonds, we continue to try to repurchase at a discount. We -- our plan, as Scott stated, is to have the asset sale program, primarily be put in place to address those. But I think we have other levers that we can play with. Potentially, we have 100% of our assets unencumbered. So there is an opportunity for us. There's a large spread between the unsecured market and the secured market. There's some flexibility we have there to be able to draw proceeds from that, probably somewhere I'd say in the high 4s to low 5% range just to give you an idea. And that's one alternative as well in addition to the asset sales that we could use to address the 2024 bonds.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Okay. It looks like there's no more questions. So it's time to close the call today.

Sakari, I just -- I want to add one -- thank you to everybody for calling in on a Friday afternoon. And I just want to close this, I want to reiterate, I've not been this bullish on our business since I've been here. What we're seeing operationally in the business is very, very strong, and it's really gratifying to see the results come in where we anticipated it to come in. And we're really looking forward to a very strong '23. So thank you, everybody.

Okay. That's a very good closing comment from Scott. So with that, I think it's good to end. As always, please do reach out to me, Bret or Scott, if you have any more questions, we're always happy to try to answer and talk about our business. With that, we wish you all a great day and a great weekend.