Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. (CCO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 11, 2025

New York Stock Exchange US Communication Services conference_presentation 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Aaron Watts

analyst
#1

We'll get started. Very pleased to have Clear Channel back with us again this year. I'm Aaron Watts, the media credit analyst at Deutsche Bank. And with me on stage from the company is Dave Sailer, Chief Financial Officer of the company. Dave, thank you for being down here again with us.

David Sailer

executive
#2

Yes. Thanks for having me.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#3

So there's a lot going on for the company these past several months. Plenty to cover here today. For our time, I'd love to cover the strategic realignment of the company, the fundamental themes of the underlying business and how those first 2 areas dovetail with improving the capital structure going forward. So maybe we'll start with the strategic alignment of the asset portfolio. because at long last, there is real progress to talk about. And in my view, you're now closer to the finish line than the starting line. So to level set for everyone, talk about why you embarked on this initiative, what you're hoping to achieve with all of it and lay out for us what's closed, what's in process and where there's still some wood to chop.

David Sailer

executive
#4

Sure. I mean it's great to be here. Thanks for having me. Now it's nice to start off the conversation with we're making some progress on our strategic initiatives. The last couple of years, the question would have been, when are you going to sell Europe-North? And how is that going? So it's great to say that we've sold Europe-North. But to go back a little bit further, I mean a decision was made, we started this process or I'd say this journey from a strategic alignment back in 2022, where we look -- we were looking to sell the entire platform of Europe-North. And then everyone knows about interest rates and the war and whatnot. And we pivoted and we sold most of our assets in Europe-South, which was Switzerland, was sold in 2023, early parts of '23. We sold Italy, which was a deal with Italy and Spain, but I'll talk to Spain a little bit later. And then also France was sold as well. And that one I always like to touch on because that's a big part of the strategic realignment when you look at a business like France, that was a tough business, tough business in the sense of the structure of the business, how it ran. From a risk profile, that was a tough business when I think about COVID and when the business -- obviously, when COVID happened and ad sales went down, France was a business that was burning cash. So when I think about the strategic alignment of the business and the goal really was to focus on the U.S., the higher growth, the higher-margin businesses, it is a little bit about derisking the business. When you think about a country like France and also we put up for sale our businesses in Latin America. And that's from a smaller scale, but the businesses in the U.S., higher margin, definitely more stable, more stable revenue growth. But going back kind of to the original question, those 3 countries were sold. And then obviously, recently, we signed and we're looking to close at the end of this month as we actually just got regulatory approval for the closing of our Europe-North business, which we'll close at the end of the month. So definitely a lot of progress made. Happy with what went on in Europe-North. I feel like the price of the assets made sense. I think it's a win-win for both the buyer and the seller. I think the assets are going to a good company. They're more on the radio side, so happy for the employees. But from our standpoint, I think from a multiple standpoint, from a business standpoint, we're very happy where that landed. And really what's left when you talk about what is left to chop, we're definitely more on the tail end. We sold our 3 businesses in Latin America. There's 4 countries. We sold Chile, Peru and Mexico. And what's left is Brazil. And that process right now is ongoing. So we're looking to execute that this year. And then what's left in Europe is Spain. And Spain, as I mentioned earlier, was sold 2 years ago or was signed to be sold to JCDecaux. And due to regulatory reasons, that sale process didn't go through. And what's kind of nice about what happened there is that business has performed really well. The management team has done a great job and to their credit during the regulatory review. Obviously, they were part of that process, but they put their heads down. They won a lot of contracts. So that business to me has more EBITDA now than then. So in my eyes, that business will put that process going probably in the next couple of weeks. I feel that business is more valuable now than it was then, which I'm looking forward to that sales process.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#5

So even though you had a large strategic buyer in JCDecaux that have been lined up because of how the business has performed this go again at the sale effort is you're feeling good about.

David Sailer

executive
#6

No, absolutely. I get that question all the time. Oh, we had a strategic, would that be worth more. We've -- ever since that deal didn't happen, and obviously, it was announced, we've had a lot of outreach on that business, but we wanted to get to Europe-North, like strategically, get that done, and we're going to look to put the process in place for Spain, but I feel like there'll be a lot of interest in that business. And just the performance of it. And I think it was less about strategic, nonstrategic as far as the value, just the performance that team has done over the last year. Very helpful.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#7

Okay. And I think one of the benefits of bringing your focus back here to the U.S. is that you'll be able to save some on the corporate line.

David Sailer

executive
#8

Yes.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#9

How should we think about where you're at today and where you think that can go?

David Sailer

executive
#10

Sure. And if you look at our K that was issued at the end of February, for the overall business, not including noncash comp, our corporate expenses were roughly $135 million, and that was at a global level. When you look at continuing ops and discontinued operations, our corporate expenses in Europe, and Latin America is roughly -- I mean, right now, we had gone out with a number that we would save $30 million -- in excess of $30 million. I'd say right now that number is around $35 million of savings off of corporate. That brings you down to roughly $100 million. That will go down a little bit over time. I mean those big chunks are coming from the reduction obviously of the businesses that are being sold. But right now, we are still a global company, still doing all the things of a global company, compliance, legal, reporting. As we get further into the year, as the businesses, obviously, as we close Europe-North and we'll have -- Brazil will follow towards the end of the year or whenever that deal closes. It will be a more U.S.-focused business, and we'll be looking at -- we said this in the past, we're going to zero-based budget our corporate expenses and looking at lines like legal, finance, reporting, compliance. I mean even -- I mean that as an easy example to throw out when you think about our audit fees of a global company, statutory audits that will be smaller. So right now, we're at that $100 million mark, and we're looking to save above and beyond that. We have a target right now, but I guess you'll see some -- a little more savings probably squeak out in 2025, but it will be more into 2026 when -- because we'll still have filings and things to do with a global company for 2025.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#11

Okay. And then as I think about the proceeds that will be coming in, and obviously, the biggest chunk will be, as you announced this week, that will be at the end of this month. What should we be netting off in terms of fees and taxes from those gross proceeds? Will there be a big hit on this?

David Sailer

executive
#12

Look, from a tax standpoint -- and look, the purchase price for Europe-North, folks that don't know was $625 million. The next $375 million, which is our BV term loan will be paid down through that closing process. Then after that, I mean, you'll have your customary fees. There really isn't tax leakage on the business. And then after that, it really depends on the working capital and the cash in the business and what those proceeds will be. But I'm looking at it, not including the paydown of the notes, I think you're probably pretty close to $625 million. It might be a little -- we were probably planning on this closing in April or May. Now it's a little bit earlier. It might be a little bit of a difference from a cash standpoint, but I think it's pretty close to that number.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#13

And your options for that cash after you pay down the European debt, as you think about the various ways you could put that money to work, what are those options? And maybe also any limitations we should think about from your debt documents on.

David Sailer

executive
#14

Sure. I mean I'll start with the debt documents. I mean, obviously, we'll follow the waterfall of the debt documents. But the major -- the way that's going to work is the money comes in, the proceeds, you pay down the BV, the term loan and what's left really goes to our credit agreements. And we have a look forward of roughly 18 months of CapEx spending and/or M&A. So I think we'll probably be close to those numbers. At the end of the day, I think lion's share of that will be available. And then we can really utilize that. Could you do acquisition? Could you pay down debt? We're very aware of where we are from a capital structure standpoint. So folks will add -- you could pay for some M&A. A little bit depend on what's out there. But when you think about the multiple that we have from a leverage standpoint and you look at what assets of scale sell for in the out-of-home space, that math is pretty tough. Could there be a tuck-in here and there that makes sense to roll up within our markets? That's possible. But a lot of conversations we're having right now is, look, we want to drive this business to be cash flow positive in 2025. If we pay down more debt in addition to the term loan, that will have a big effect on interest rates. And I think that's probably where a lion's share of what we're thinking about. The next question you could ask is, all right, if you're going to look at it from a debt paydown, what tranches of debt would you go after? Obviously, our nearest term debt is due in 2027, which is our [ 5.88% ], which honestly is our most attractive debt. So maybe we'd want to hold off. But we're looking at that. And then you have our unsecured notes that are due in '28 and '29. So we're still figuring that out. But what's nice is we're having those conversations where in the past, it was theoretically, if you sold North, what would you do? Now we're actively having those conversations, what's going to make the most sense, and we're definitely going to act on it. Yes.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#15

Okay. And remind us where leverage is going to shake out pro forma for these asset sales getting done? And how do we think about the glide path that leverage will have to get to where you want it to be?

David Sailer

executive
#16

Sure. I mean, look, we probably want to -- our leverage probably roughly half of where it is today. So right now, if you look at our numbers, it's a little -- you look at our financials, it's a little odd in the sense that pre-doing the deal, we were in the 9x, 9.5x -- probably roughly 9.5x levered. Right now, if you look at our year-end results, our leverage doesn't include the cash that we're going to get from the deal, but it also doesn't include the EBITDA that we have from Europe-North. So right now, our leverage ratios are elevated. You're probably in the high 11s. Once this all kind of flows through, we're going to be a little bit higher leverage than we were before. We always mentioned that this wasn't a deleveraging transaction. It was more of a chance when the proceeds come in to look at actual -- absolute pay down of debt. But as I kind of look forward, through organic growth and as we get through like the Spain transactions, Latin America, I think we'll probably settle in probably where we were before, maybe a little bit lower. But I think the goal moving forward is obviously is to delever the business, and that's why we're looking at it from a debt paydown, organically growing the business, every $25 million of EBITDA is half a turn. So as you grow the U.S. business, higher-margin business, you generate cash, as we pay down a little bit of debt, that's a nice cycle and you increase your AFFO for the business, which will be up in 2025, definitely high double digits year-over-year. So -- but long term, I mean, everyone says where should the leverage be on the company. If you look at our competitors, it's probably in the 4x to 6x leverage. So we have -- there's definitely some time between now until when we get there, but getting the business sold, getting the proceeds and starting that cycle of paying down debt, derisking the business, I think that will cycle over time. And then in addition to organically growing the business, this is probably a question you'll bring up. I'll talk about it now. Scott has talked about creative ideas. And I agree with Scott in the sense that we grow the business organically, you start delevering the business. But to get to where we are and where we want to go, there's probably something else that's out there. Scott has talked about maybe there's a JV with a sponsor, obviously, which would increase EBITDA, make the company a little bit bigger from a barter standpoint, we have -- our inventory is very variable. Do we sell it out at 100%? No. Is there a play there utilizing our inventory and some kind of barter deal? So -- and as you're doing that and as you're growing the bottom line, when you think about where our debt trades and where our equity trades, as you start growing the business and you're chipping away at your leverage, does your equity increase, there's another currency. So I think there's a lot of things. And what I'm excited about is actually we're now talking about them as something that we want to look at and execute on as opposed to, oh, that's something we're going to look at post transaction, like the transaction is now here, and we're looking at all these ideas. And to me, that's exciting and really looking forward to that over the next 6 to 12 months.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#17

And in your mind, these creative options that you are thinking about now can be done in a win-win fashion where it's good for both your shareholders as well as your lenders.

David Sailer

executive
#18

Yes. No, we -- I think we always mentioned that. We're looking at things that obviously are a win for the company, win for our equity holders and for our creditors. And because I think it's all part of the process. We're going to be refinancing debt in the not-so near-term future. So I'm not thinking about it from a credit standpoint. But I think part of the solution as we're looking to delever the business and more currency is on the equity side as well. So we are looking at it as a win from a company standpoint, win for our equity and from a credit standpoint. Absolutely.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#19

All right. Let's move into the core business performance and the outlook every day, multiple times a day, it feels as though there are twists and turns in the way the wind blows. Politically, inflation has remained stubbornly high, et cetera, all those factors creating uncertainty in the overall backdrop. How is that impacting the company's core U.S. market? Any anecdotes you can share from your sales team or ag clients on how they're navigating through all that noise?

David Sailer

executive
#20

Yes. No, I mean, even yesterday was probably a lot of noise. And obviously, I can't think about comments made yesterday and the impact on the market and how that's going to affect our business just yet because it's so in the short term. But I do think uncertainty does play into the minds of ad spending. When I think about the first quarter, I do think what -- and I can -- there's probably 4 or 5 reasons I can go into when I think about the first quarter. And if you look at our industry as a whole, everyone kind of gave guidance and second and fourth quarter look better. The first quarter, a lot of the RFPs that come in when you're booking your business for the first quarter, it's really in the fourth quarter, towards the end of the third quarter into the fourth quarter of last year. I think the uncertainty of the elections actually had an impact on the amount of RFPs we were getting. So that does play into it. I mean the election was obviously a major uncertainty. The comments from day to day, I don't know how much of an impact. I don't think it's helpful. But look, at the end of the day, it's kind of the world we live in. I think it's been like that -- and I get it, I'll talk about the current administration, but I think that's been around for a while, to be quite honest. I almost feel like post-COVID, there's so much information out there. And then you just got to navigate through it. As of today, when I look at the trends for the rest of the year, they look strong. Our pipeline was strong. Our upfront, and I use the word upfront cautiously. It's not the upfront when you think about it from a TV standpoint, but it's a point in time where we're selling what we call perms, folks that are coming in to buy their signs for the next year. A big part of that season is from September through February, and that was pretty strong this year. So when I look at that, when I look at the pipeline, when I look at the bookings that are out there, obviously I can talk about the NTA and the new deal we have in New York, that's going to be a nice headwind as we get into the business. So right now, for the back half of the year, for the full year 2025, I feel good kind of where we are from a guidance standpoint.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#21

Okay. So let's dig in a little bit more on your largest segment, the Americas Roadside business. You're coming off a year of 4% growth. And looking forward, you guided this year up 4% to 7%, although a little bit slower start due to the factors you just kind of went through. But as you -- as we move through the year, what gives you confidence that the year can ramp? And what ends you up at the top of that range, that 4% to 7% range versus kind of the lower end?

David Sailer

executive
#22

Sure. I mean a lot of it is what I just said, and I won't repeat all that. I think the macro is a big part of it. I mean we are -- I mean, that's probably the easy answer. The macro is a part of it. We're a GDP plus. So there's macro issues that will definitely have an effect. But if the macro is fine, I think that helps us get to that upper end of the guidance. And another thing I can talk about the MTA, that's obviously a couple of percentage points that's going to help to get to that upper end of the guidance. And the one thing -- and folks probably know this, when you think about our business and some things we've said in our earnings calls in the prior years, like in 2023 was a tough year overall for the Americas business, but it was probably situated in a few markets. A couple of our larger markets didn't have the greatest year, and there was reasons for it, San Francisco. I mean, I'm not going to go into reasons we know what happened in San Francisco. And 2023 wasn't a good year. So when you have a big market, have a tough year. So when you're a big market, say, $90 million to $100 million, and you're off 4%, that's pretty big. And then when your smaller markets are growing, it takes a lot of those smaller markets to offset that. So in 2023, a couple of bigger markets were down. San Francisco was case in point. Most of our markets grew, but it couldn't offset the decline in some of those bigger markets. When I look at 2025, our top 3 markets, our biggest markets are L.A., San Francisco and New York. And right now, I like what I see in San Francisco. I think the trends are good. The forward bookings look good. So that's kind of a nice tailwind. I think New York will do very well, just I mean the MTA's case in point. And then L.A. is another big market where the fires definitely had an impact in the first quarter or will have an impact in the first quarter. What I mean by that is like when those fires were happening, the sales teams on both sides of the equation on a sales transaction, people in L.A., that probably wasn't their biggest concern. They were worried about what was going on within the fires. So that definitely had a disruption in the first quarter. Back half bookings are better than they were in the first. So those are some of the things I'm thinking about in addition to talking about the pipeline and the upfronts that I mentioned earlier.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#23

And even with all this noise, I know historically, cancellations have been a precursor to a downturn in business. Where does cancellation activity stand today?

David Sailer

executive
#24

I mean, normal. I mean there's no like uptick. I mean you have normal cancellations, but it's not in the conversation. We obviously always monitor it, but nothing internally that we're worried about at this point in time.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#25

Okay. And I do want to focus on the MTA deal, a new signing for you. I think you said it will add a couple of points to revenue growth. But remind us the other key elements of that contract, what made it a good fit and also the impact it might have on margins?

David Sailer

executive
#26

Sure. Look, the MTA are phenomenal assets. If you're familiar with New York, I mean, they're the assets that you see driving out to the airports, LaGuardia, JFK, up the West Side Highway. It's going up to Connecticut. It's all the assets on MTA property. And really, when I think about the MTA and why it's important, strategically why we went after it, and yes, it is a lower-margin contract. It gives us the coverage in a very important market, New York, that we didn't have before. Yes, we were in New York before, but we're really strong in Times Square. We were strong in New Jersey. But in the boroughs, yes, we had inventory, but not the strength of some of our competitors. So by gaining that MTA when RFPs come in from a national standpoint and national business, the 2 main pillars are L.A. and New York, having in L.A. and New York. So when RFPs come in, yes, we're really strong in L.A., but not as much before in New York. Now that gives us a much better seat at the table to win more RFPs. And that could be an RFP that's New York and Philly or New York and D.C. So I think strategically, it was a nice fit. We like that. It's a 15-year deal. The prior MTA contract -- and again, this is above-ground roadside billboards. The prior contract was 7 years, which is tough to monetize. If you're going to put new digitals in the ground over 7 years, that's a tough investment. Over 15, it definitely pencils a lot more. You mentioned on the top line, it will ramp throughout the year. This is a deal that started in November. We found out we won in October. So it's a short turnaround time. So obviously, you want to ramp up. But once that's ramped, that's a little over 2 percentage points of growth. It will hurt you slightly on margins. But to me, it's also about generating cash, growing absolute EBITDA to the bottom line. And I also think there's a little bit of a network effect that you'll see in other parts of the country that aren't included.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#27

And just to harp on that point, kind of the uplift you could see, is this in a situation where you have an RFP come in, from a big national brand, and they want that focus on the big markets and now you have a more complete portfolio in New York and can deliver?

David Sailer

executive
#28

Yes. I mean that's probably an RFP there. We might have been able to fulfill some of it. And now it's something where we can fulfill all of it with. And again, we talk a lot about national with the MTA, and it will definitely be a national buy, but I want to be clear, it's also a local buy as well. I mean we're hiring local AEs. I mean that -- those boards, there's roughly 300 boards in and around New York on the property that it's also going to drive local and national business.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#29

Okay. Digital has clearly been a driver of growth for the platform. I think it accounts -- correct me if I'm wrong, accounts for almost 40% of Americas revenues. How much more room is there to run on that effort? And how should we think of the pace of your continued digital board expansion?

David Sailer

executive
#30

Sure. I look at it in 2 ways. And right now, that 40%, that was the fourth quarter. Our fourth quarter was 40%. So it was a little heavier in the fourth quarter. Right now, for the full year '24, we're at 36% of digital revenue. And look, I think there's a lot of room for growth there. At a high level, when I think about the markets we have, we have markets that are in the low 50s, and we have markets that are in the teens and the 20s. So there's ample room. From an inventory standpoint, it's like 5% to 7% of our inventory, but 36% of our revenue. And I think about it in 2 ways of growing the business is, one, we're going to continue doing what we've been doing over the last decade in the sense is organically building or converting 70 to 100-plus signs per year. That playbook has done well, but returns are roughly 30%, some higher, some slightly lower, but great investment, good return. Where you may get a pop in a year here and there is in some of the larger markets where the percentage of revenue is in the teens or maybe low 20s, that's probably an area where the regulatory is a little bit tighter. And that's something -- you know, we're working on talking to municipalities. That's something where in a specific municipality, we're able to install more digital. There was actually a municipality pre-COVID that we were almost ready to go where we could have instituted multiple digitals in that city. COVID happened, it never worked out, but that's where you can probably see a little bit of a pop in digital. But overall, that -- I think it's going to be a steady progression. What that number will get to where we're at 36% today, as you can see, we have markets in the 50s. I think that will go into the 60s. So that's going to evolve over time. And the last anecdote I'd throw out on that one, obviously, we're selling Europe-North, but in the U.K., their digital revenue was north of 70%. So just kind of a case study that it's possible for that to keep going.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#31

Okay. And you and Scott have also highlighted your investments in data and analytical capabilities, growing the sales force. Those are key components of the growth plan moving forward. Walk us through how important those investments are. I know just generally speaking, across media, we keep hearing about addressability and being able to identify who's seeing your ads. And so talk about how those investments dovetail with that.

David Sailer

executive
#32

Yes, it's super important. I mean I think proving what your assets can do for your clients is kind of paramount. Like I don't know why someone would want to put their money on someone's assets if they didn't know what it was doing and what it was proving out. So look, the attribution and the investment that we're putting into RADAR, I think, is very important for both local and national. It definitely started out on the national side. And when you think about our RADAR capabilities at a basic level, it's a planning tool. It's done at the local and national level. And from a planning standpoint, when you look at all of our inventory, we segment all our boards. And what that means is we know how they index across many different graphics and -- demographics. And as far as it could be auto intenders, moviegoers, certain TV watching, moms, whatever, we know how that indexes. So that's a way -- if you know what segment you're going after, that's kind of the planning stage. And then at more of an extreme level from an attribution standpoint, it is really looking -- doing attribution studies where we know folks that are exposed. So if you're going after -- it could be pharma, it could be app downloads. For pharma, it would be scripts. For an app, it would be app downloads, it could be a store visits or whatnot, where we can show the advertiser the audience that is exposed to their ads versus consumers that were not exposed to ads in the same city or the same area. And you can show the uplift in either app downloads, scripts being written and whatnot, which is, to me, is really powerful. So I think it is where things are going. When you think about the ad space, it's very fragmented or becoming more fragmented. This is a place where we're the last true reach mediums. When you think of programmatic, like I think the data and analytics, it's something that's -- we're going to continue. It's not going to -- I don't think it's like, oh, we're here, it's always going to evolve. So I think that investment is absolutely necessary. And then the start of your question as far as adding to the sales teams, we've talked about that on the local level. From a national level, I think it's a little bit more specific. We've talked about our client solutions team, which is a direct-to-client organization. And that has evolved over time. We probably started that 6 to 8 years ago, where that's going direct to clients, still utilizing the agencies. We're talking to the clients directly. And that has evolved into some of our sales folks developing specific skill sets, where we have someone that's going after pharma in that group. We have some that's going after beverages in that group. We're thinking about doing it on auto. So that's evolving over time. But it's just -- at the end of the day, it's how do you grow that national business. These are the tools and the things that we're utilizing to do that.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#33

Okay. Let's shift gears to your airport operation, which grew a robust mid-teens percent growth rate last year. You're seeing that normalize some here in 2025. Maybe unpack the trend for us. And how would you describe the health of the airports business today?

David Sailer

executive
#34

Definitely healthy. The Airport business has done a phenomenal job. I think Morten, who's our President, has really executed on his vision. And it's -- I won't go into everything he's thinking about, but those growth rates will normalize over time. But over the last couple of years, you had more inventory being put in. The New York Airports is a big part of that. Also coming out of COVID, it was a smaller base and the business has grown. But we've done that over the last 3 to 4 years, 5 years with less airports. It was actually a strategic plan to reduce the number of airports but to have that focus on the right airports and the right inventory. If you walk through a new -- when I say a new airport, an airport that we just redid our program, and New York is an easy one to talk about because they're all new terminals, but they're highly digital, but there's probably less screens than you think. The execution there was to go bigger and bolder on digital. There's still printed signs, but the returns have been great. The advertisers really love it. And really, the audience that you're getting in airports is a great audience. It's a premium sell and the team has executed really well. And I think, yes, the growth isn't going to be the 16% we got here, which is probably a little bit more from an inventory standpoint. But I do think that's still -- we can grow GDP plus in those businesses over time. And -- there -- just to further expand on it, their digital penetration is roughly in the 50s. And I think that will probably grow quicker than it does on the traditional side of the Americas business.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#35

And as we think about the margins for this segment, it's been a little bit elevated towards the mid-20s lately. I know you've spoken about that trending a bit down. Where do those margins land?

David Sailer

executive
#36

I mean they are elevated for those that aren't following us super close. It's really as you went through COVID, there was COVID relief on site lease in a lot of our airports, and that trickled in, in '22, '23 and '24 that will be done in '25. That increased our margins into the mid-20s. This business has always been a high teens type of business, depending on the quarter. But overall, you're probably around that 20%. You may have a quarter or 2 that might be a little bit elevated. First quarter is probably lower. The fourth quarter is probably higher, but you're probably in and around that 20%, maybe high teens. And really what affects the margins of the airports business, obviously, as you grow revenue, your margins are going to increase because it's -- the site lease is kind of -- it's a percentage of revenue. But really what has also helped the margins of the airports business in addition to the COVID relief over the last couple of years is the airports really haven't gone out to RFP. And what I mean by that is most airport deals 7, 10, 12 years after they're up, it usually goes out to an RFP and you have a competitive bidding process. Over the last several years, airports have been extending. And what that means is they're extending that deal 3 years, 5 years. And usually, when you extend, your terms stay the same. When I say terms, what you're paying the airport authority for the right to sell that inventory, and you'll put in a little bit of CapEx. So if your terms stay the same and your revenue increases, that actually has been an increase on margins. As things start going out to RFP and there's a competitive bidding process, obviously, the economics always get a little bit worse. So that's why I'm trying to be cautious in that 20%, high teens to 20%. But the business has performed well, and I feel as we get into this year, I feel very comfortable kind of where we are.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#37

Okay. And just one question quickly on costs. You mentioned abatements that were helping over the last couple of years. Anything else we should be thinking about from a comparability standpoint on the cost line, the MTA deal, you mentioned, anything else material?

David Sailer

executive
#38

I guess when I think about cost, I would break it out into 3 buckets, the Americas segment, airports and corporate. And probably covered a lot of corporate, I think earlier. From an Americas segment, if you look at historically, that business is going to grow cost-wise in the low to mid-single digits. This year will be elevated because we're onboarding the MTA and the MAG and the revenue share attached to that. Airport segment, you definitely have noise last year versus this year for COVID relief. I think we said publicly we had roughly $10 million of relief last year. That's a pretty big headwind for a business. That's the -- around $80 million of EBITDA. So that $10 million is definitely a headway. When you talk about expenses, if you look at historical growth, it's going to be the same, which again is in the low to mid-single digits, depending on your revenue growth because it's tied to the rev share. And then on corporate, we had talked about earlier and kind of how that's going to roll out. That will be a work in progress over the next probably 18 months.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#39

Okay. And then as I think about your liquidity, your cash flow, you ended last year with $346 million of liquidity. I know there's a lot of moving pieces here with the asset sales. But putting that aside, correct me if I'm way off here, but I think based on your guidance for this year, you should be relatively free cash flow neutral. Are you comfortable with your current liquidity position? And do you expect your free cash flow profile to continue to improve as you move forward?

David Sailer

executive
#40

I'd say yes. I mean, just the simple answer, absolutely. And yes, as we look at 2025, the goal is to be cash flow positive, as you said, close to neutral, but to cash flow positive. But I think liquidity for this business will be very different post the sale of the European countries as opposed to it was prior and also Latin America, just the risk profile of the business. In the past, we kept more cash on the balance sheet than was probably necessary, although sometimes it was necessary when we went through COVID, funding some of what happened overseas to fund those businesses. And that was the kind of like when you sell the business, that's what we're talking about when we derisked the business. When I think about the business as a U.S. business, higher-margin business, definitely more stable from a revenue growth and even from an expense standpoint, I think the amount of cash we're going to have to carry will be less than we have in the past. And I think our revolvers and the ABL, that's something that maybe you have a little bit less cash and you can utilize them as you go through the year from a seasonality standpoint. No. So from a liquidity standpoint, I feel very good right now. And with the proceeds coming in, I think it's a chance for us to play a little bit of offense when you're thinking about the debt. And obviously, the quantum that we're going to pay off is not large, but it's great to kind of get to that point where we're starting to attack that debt stack.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#41

Okay. Let me ask you about the sort of topic that you're around media, which is deregulation. Now I know that's going to impact probably out-of-home less than other areas of media. But specifically for out-of-home, we're coming off a quieter year of M&A here in the U.S. I'm curious what you're seeing in the pipeline right now and whether you expect an uptick in industry transactions this year.

David Sailer

executive
#42

No, I would say absolutely. I mean, really, at the end of the day, last year was slower because the major player in the space, Lamar, who does most M&A was kind of on the sidelines, and they were talking about certain transactions that they were going to do or not do. That definitely slowed the pace, I would say, in 2024. And I expect the pace to increase in 2025. I know they'll be active in the market, and that's going to drive definitely some activity. From our standpoint, when I think about M&A for Clear Channel, I think we're pretty clear on kind of where we are from a capital structure and what makes sense and what doesn't make sense. Look, could I see us doing small tuck-ins within our current markets? Absolutely, if it makes sense from a financial standpoint. Do I see us going out and making a large sands transaction? I don't. I don't see it from this seat. As far as from a regulatory standpoint, I think that probably does have more of an impact on some of the other media companies and other industries as far as televisions and kind of what will probably transpire in their space, which, honestly, probably the idea of a TV or media company buying into out-of-home might have less of a chance now because there can be more stuff within their own industry as opposing to look at an industry or our industry, which is obviously is growing versus some of the traditional medias, which are either flat or declining.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#43

Yes, sure. We've seen Clear Channel sell pockets of assets in the past. I understand under different circumstances for the company. But at present, remind us the hurdles you have to overcome as it pertains to your tax basis to pursue additional asset sales here? Because something you hear a lot is, well, why don't they just go sell assets at these great multiples that the businesses are trading at to help deleverage?

David Sailer

executive
#44

No, no, it's a fair question. And really, it's simple math. And yes, we've sold some small stuff, but anything of a large scale like an entire market, we have really low tax basis. It's as simple as that. We have very low tax basis. And if you sell a business at 12x and the tax hit on that is 4 turns, the math doesn't work. If anyone is out there that wants to buy a market of mine for 20x, I'm absolutely all yours. We'll absolutely entertain that. But from a tax standpoint in the U.S., it doesn't make sense. Could it be liquidity if we ever need it? Sure. But right now, we're not thinking about selling U.S. assets. It's more growing organically, increasing that cash flow, trying to delever the business, looking at some of those things that we talked about earlier on to kind of help the business.

Aaron Watts

analyst
#45

Okay. All right. So 20x gets the deal done. Okay. All right. We're about out of time. Dave, thanks so much for being here. This was super helpful.

David Sailer

executive
#46

Great. Thank you.

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