Cmb.Tech NV (CMBT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, good afternoon, and welcome to the earnings conference call for the second quarter of 2026 of CMB TECH. My name is Alexander Saverys. I'm the CEO of CMB.Tech, and I'm joined by my colleagues, Joris Daman and Enya Derkinderen. We will start, as always, with our financials and some highlights. And before we do, we give you an overview of the fleet of CMB.TECH. You can see that we have 206 vessels on the water with another 26 newbuildings coming. Our contract backlog is stable at $3.3 billion. The fleet is on. We have an average age below 6 years. Our CapEx commitments, we will discuss a bit later, have now gone down to less than $1 billion. We have a market cap of $5.2 billion, a fair market value of the fleet of $11.2 billion. And for those who might not know, we are still listed in New York in Brussels and in Oslo. Our second quarter financials. The title of our press release was making hay while the sun shines, these are exceptional times for shipping and also exceptional times for CMB.TECH. The company has made a profit of $364.4 million in the second quarter. This was on the back of an increased revenue of over $700 million. and an exceptional profit that we made on the sale of assets of $127 million. You can see the other items in our profit and loss that stick out One of them is the net finance expense. We are reducing our quarterly net finance expense to $76 million, which is a 5% reduction compared to the first quarter. This is led by cheaper refinancings and also just a general repayment of our debt. Our EBITDA stood at $552 million. on liquidity, slightly below EUR 400 million. So total assets, book value stands at above 35%. And and our equity on total assets value adjusted is now above 50% at 51.5%. I Other highlights during the quarter. I already mentioned our net profit and our EBITDA. The liquidity, which stands at around EUR 400 million. We have a contract backlog, which is stable. We have added during the quarter, 2-year charters on our CSOVs and 1-year VLCC charter. The intention to distribute an amount of EUR 0.64 per share, which will be split in an intermediary dividend of $21 per share and a payment of $0.43 or $0.21 per share and $0.43 per share out of the share premium reserve, which is exempt from any withholding tax. We have taken delivery in the second quarter and quarter-to-date of 9 newbuilding vessels. These were 4 new Castlemaxes, 1 VLCC to brand-new Suezmaxes, one CSOV and on CTV. We have sold quite a few ships so far this year. In the second quarter, we have delivered to their new owners to VLCCs, the IMA and the Ingrid on which we booked a capital gain of $98 million. We have sold an older Suezmax the Ciena with a capital gain of $29 million -- so total gain in second quarter was $127 million. In the third quarter, we will book a gain of $100 million on the sale of 2 Suezmaxes -- and in the fourth quarter, we will add a gain of $130 million on the sale of the Donoussa, which is a VLCC and 1 more Suezmax. The sales of our tankers, we believe are very well timed. We are at historic high prices for VLCCs and Suezmaxes on this slide. you can basically see the 10-year average for a 5-year-old VLCC and a 5-year old Suezmax compared to today's values and also compared to the last 10 years minimum and maximum. And as you can see, on VLCCs and Suezmaxes, we are well above the 10-year average. We are also well above the maximum of over the last 10 years that we have seen We, therefore, believe it's a good time to sell some of our assets, particularly our older assets. And then we have put a comparison where other segments stand like Panamaxes and Capesizes, as you can see that today's values, even though they are at the top end of what we have seen over the last 10 years, they are still in line of that bracket. Same goes for VLGC -- of course, on the container vessels, the situation is different and also on LNG. We wanted to show you what we believe in 2027, our operational cash flow could be based on certain rate assumptions. So we have put the rate assumptions at the bottom right of the slide, with a 10% and 20% uplift. Rate assumptions for 2027 have been based on FFAs and assumptions for next year. You can see the numbers there. What you then see is after having repaid or paid all our CapEx investments, we still are forecasting a cash flow of $700 million to $1 billion. I would say that's a very powerful figure to see that even after all our CapEx have been repaid, our operational cash flow will be between $700 million and $1 billion. Of course, if the market changes, the numbers will change, but it gives you an indication of the cash flow generating potential of all our different divisions. The most important, of course, are Newcastlemaxes and Capesizes or VLCCs and Suezmaxes. I mentioned the CapEx. We still have $890 million of newbuildings to be delivered of newbuilding installments to be made. Of that number, the vast majority has already been financed. We have an unfunded CapEx of $190 million, which is basically spread out this year, $43 million; and then other amounts in '27, '28 and '29, which are relatively small. At the end of this year, our outstanding CapEx commitment will be between $375 million and $390 million. So we have come to the end of our large 2.5-year newbuilding investment plan. I want to give you an update on the market and talk about Bocimar, Euronav, Delphis, Bochem and Windcat. And I always start with an overview of the different markets we operate in and what we feel is the sentiment and the state of the market. Starting with dry bulk. Clearly, we are positive on dry bulk we see that demand on the major commodities we are moving is growing. That goes for iron ore, bauxite, grain and coal. The order book to fleet has increased a little bit on Capesizes actually decreased a little bit on Panamaxes. We are around the 15% mark, which we still think is something that the market can take for the next couple of years. The age of the fleet of our Capes are older than 15 years. More than 1/3 of the Panamaxes are older than 15 years. The balance between supply and demand on dry bulk, we believe, is positive. Moving to tankers. You can see that we have colored from positive to cautious and basically kept a positive and cautious approach. No doubt, the market is very positive today. We are seeing all-time high rates on secondhand numbers on the freight numbers on the spot market. So the market is very, very, very strong. reason we are becoming a little bit more cautious is that on the demand side, we don't know what the effect will be of a potential solution industry of forms. Obviously, we don't know the timing, but that solution could lead to softer markets. What worries us a bit more is the order book to fleet, we are now seeing an order book to fleet on VLCCs and Suezmaxes of over 30%, this is not impacting the market right now. The order book for 2026 is still very reasonable. But as from next year and the year after, we will see a tsunami of VLCC and Suezmaxes coming to the market. Moving to containers and the chemical tankers. We have had a cautious approach to both markets. Actually, the container market has surprised to the upside. The unwinding of the Red Sea rerouting has been postponed with the renewed tensions around [ Bateman and the UTI ] attacks. But when you look at the order book, we would still be quite cautious for containers going forward. But right now, the market on containers is still quite good. On the chemical tankers, the order book is something we are watching closely. The market has actually performed relatively well -- but going forward, we take a slight cautious approach. As you know, both in Delphis and Bochem, our Container & Chemical Tanker division we have close to no spot exposure. So we are very well covered and shielded from any market fluctuations. Our last division Windcat offshore energy. We are seeing good rates. We believe if you look at the demand for the offshore wind energy projects, but also offshore oil and gas projects combined with the order book with the fleet that is coming. There is a substantial fleet of CSOs coming to the market next year and in 2028. But combined with the demand that we see in oil and gas and wind we believe that the balance is positive. I want to zoom in on certain specific dynamics in our subsectors, starting in dry bulk. First, our dashboard, what we have done in the second quarter. Our fleet today is 40 NewCastlemaxes on the water, 37 Capes and 30 Kamsarmaxes and pannamaxes. The performance in the second quarter was very good. We earned $46,000 on our NUCs, close to $40,000 on our Capes and $20,000 on our Panamaxes -- the rates for the third quarter are in line with the rates of the first quarter so far of second quarter. So far, what we have booked in Q3 is slightly below Q2 because we have positioned quite some vessels into interesting fronthaul positions, and we would normally see a bump on our rates towards the end of Q3 and into Q4. A lot of the indicators on dry bulk are green some indicators like iron ore inventories and steel inventories are slightly negative. But overall, we see that the demand side of things is looking very positive. Looking at order book to fleet before we zoom in on the demand. One can see that the order book has grown. We are now in Capesize order book to fleet of 17%. Panamax is has actually gone down slightly. We are at 14%, spread out nicely over the next couple of years. So far, we don't believe that the order book to fleet is an issue. The average age of the fleet is actually a very positive the fleet is aging, very little scrapping going on, so that has the potential to help the market in the next couple of years. The volumes, we are seeing iron ore coal actually supporting the market. So on our Capesizes, it's iron ore, bauxite, and a little bit of coal. On the Panamax, it's coal, grain, and some of the other commodities, when you look at what has been transported, we see that there is growth. Bauxite seasonally dips in the second quarter, but we have seen a very interesting pickup recently. So strong second quarter volumes on all dry bulk commodities. When we look at the iron ore specifically, it's a China, Australia, Brazil story. And an interesting story that we are seeing is the FE content. Overall, Chinese iron ore imports and Chinese iron ore imports are reducing in FE content a little bit, and we are seeing lower production, domestic production in China on the iron ore. Both these elements -- if you compare 2026 with what we are expecting for 2027 could add another 2.5% of extra iron ore imports into China. So something to watch the FE content and domestic Chinese production, which is going down and being replaced by higher FE content iron ore coming from abroad and being imported via sea. But there's a new kid on the block. Since a couple of years, the importance of Africa is increasing. We wanted to highlight this on this slide. Here, you can see the volumes from some major commodities from major export areas, some of which have been around for a long time, some of which are new to the game like Simandou in Guinea. You can see that the growth from 25% to 26% is massive, but it's actually expected to grow even further at an average rate of 11%. Why do we believe this could be a very interesting dynamic for our markets in the next 3 to 4 years. The Simandou iron ore, particularly, is being produced at a relatively low breakeven cost and could replace shorter-haul iron ore going forward. We have tried to list some of the breakeven costs of some mines on the right side of the slide. if that iron ore would be replaced by cheaper Simandou iron ore, you could get a kick of 7% in ton miles for the Capesize fleet. So Africa is definitely something to watch and particularly Simon do and the effects in the next couple of years. Want to say a word about El Nino as well. We have 2 slides on El Nino, and I'm sure my colleague Joris can talk to you about that for a little bit longer than what I will do now. But what we wanted to do here is to show that based on previous experience and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 and 2024, we could see a positive effect for the dry bulk market and particularly for the Panamax fleet in dry bulk. And there's basically 3 dynamics, on the one hand, less water in the Panama Canal could limit the transits. Now typically, Panamaxes carry low-value commodities and cannot compete in the auction system to go through the Panama Canal with the container vessels and therefore, don't transit anymore, and therefore, have to reroute and have a longer distance. There is a grain kicker to the dry bulk market as well, thanks to El Nino, where short-haul grain trades, for instance, Australia, where it's hotter and drier produce less grain are being replaced by longer haul grain, for instance, from South America, where better crops are being grown. And then there's another one on the coal where hotter weather leads to higher electricity demand. And obviously, on coal, we also have the impact of Hormuz. So all combined, we think that El Nino could have a slight positive effect on the dry bulk market and Panamaxes in particular. And we tried to show this and prove this with this slide here where you can basically see the effect of the May 2023 to May 2024, last El Nino and what it has an effect on rates and basically rates doubled even tripled over the space of 6 months. Moving to tankers and Euronav Dashboard on our VLCCs and Suezmaxes. We have 5 VLCCs, 4 on the water, 1 that will deliver towards the end of this year. We have 15 Suezmaxes, you can see the results that we achieved in the second quarter above $120,000 in Q2 for this already so far fixed in Q3 the same number. On our Suezmaxes, we reached a rate of $123,000 we are slightly below $120,000 Q3 to date. So stellar numbers are very good numbers. Obviously, we have sold some vessels -- the new sales are the Donoussa and Bristol, but we have delivered as well VLCCs to their new owners in the second quarter, and you can see all the capital gains that we did there, which I mentioned in the introduction. When you look at the dashboard and all the specific indicators, 1 stands out, of course, it's the oil supply from OPEC countries year-on-year, which is significantly down but I will highlight some more details in the next couple of slides. First, I'll talk about the order book. It is big and it is growing. You can see here, year-over-year on VLCCs and our Suezmaxes, what is on order. 370V, 250 Suezmaxes. This is a very, very large order book which is not going to be an issue this year. But as from next year, in 2027, 2028, we will get a delivery of 1V or Suezmax every 2 days. which eventually could lead to an oversupply even though we know there is still an aging fleet. But when you look at the old vessel numbers, they are now inferior to the order book, whereas over the last 4, 5 years, it was the opposite. So order book something to watch for the next couple of years. On the demand side, we have analyzed what happened with seaborne crude. What we can see between January 2026 and June 2026, we went from 31 million barrels per day to 22.3 million barrels per day. And it's very interesting to see where the reduction came from. All in all, when you look at the total lost export volumes to the different major destinations, you come to a number of 8.5 million spread out. China 4.3 million barrels lost, India 1.8 billion; Japan, 600,000 barrels, the U.S., close to 400,000 barrels and the rest of the world, 400,000 barrels. What is interesting is that the Chinese lost import is basically a combination of less volumes from the Middle East but also less volumes from other places in the world, whereas you see that the other destinations, they surely have lost volumes from the Middle East but they have actually increased their exports from other places in the world. And the reason we're seeing this is that China is the single reason that we have not seen the barrel of oil at a much higher price than we have seen. They are basically single-handedly balanced the supply and demand story in oil by controlling it, thanks to their massive reserves. And you can actually see here how the stockpiles of China have been evolving and how it allows them to be picky on when they decide to import depending on the price and depending on how they position themselves geopolitically. We believe that the power of OPEC as a producing block is now in the oil markets moving to even more to China as a big buyer and the numbers show it. And actually, you see this on this slide as well, whereas you see that the non-Chinese Asian importers have very quickly increased their imports above the levels that we saw last year. China is still way below the levels that they had last year or at the beginning of the year. And this is really something to watch because as the situation in the Middle East normalizes, it will be very interesting to see how quickly China will start restocking or whether they will wait for lower prices. Moving to the container markets. As I said, the exposure of our company on containers is not very high. I think the one thing I can say about the container market is that it has been much better performing than what we would have expected. This Red Sea unwinding has been delayed meaning that more vessels are rerouting via Africa, meaning more vessels are needed. Volumes have been actually also better than expected. So all in all, container markets are good. But I said this in the previous quarters, we are cautious when we look at the supply and demand going forward because there's still a lot of ships on order. Chemical tankers, our fleet of 16 vessels, 8 are on the water, another 8 will be delivered. Most of our fleet is fixed on 10-year and 7-year contracts. We have 2 ships operating in a pool. You can see the results there. The chemical market is actually doing relatively okay. We are watching the product tanker markets whether they will keep up at a certain level or where they will start eating into the chemical tanker market. But so far, we believe we are in an okay situation. We are watching the order book for '27 and '28. And then finishing off with a very nice picture of our wind cat Rotterdam and the offshore wind markets. We have recently fixed 2 of our CSOVs to the offshore oil and gas for 2 years, we are seeing in the CSOV market, it's a market of the wind on the 1 hand, which is necessitating extra CTVs, extra CSOVs, but where projects have been a little bit slow to materialize over the past 2 years and a combination of the offshore oil and gas markets, which are actually needing modern vessels and are pulling away some of the wind vessels into their market. If you combine both with the order books of CSOVs that we are seeing this year in '27 and '28, the market is very well balanced, and actually, the market is quite strong. You can see that we achieved some very good rates in the second quarter on our CSOVs of $64,000 for Q3, we have already booked 2/3 of our days at $50,000, which, as you can see with the breakeven numbers are very good and profitable for our wind cat division. That sums up the presentation. There is one point I wanted to mention, which we have not tackled, but we have received quite a few questions about our bonds. As you know, on the 14th of September, our bond expires, we have decided to repay the bonds from our own cash that we have available. So we intend to repay the bonds on the 14th of September, we will not refinance the bond, we will repay it. I will hand over now to Ana for the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] So now we will take the first question that is coming from -- through the Morkedal.

This is Frode from Clarksons. Yes, you started with the bond, just to confirm, you -- that won't impact the dividends. Let's use it hopefully.

No, we don't expect this to impact the dividends.

Yes. The dividend has been 2 quarters right now with 50% payout. So that seems like a new trend as we expected. So Yes. I guess investors should still think 50% of net profit, including vessel sales gains is the fact policy. Of course, I understand that you have like -- you can change it, but it seems like a good target.

And it seems like a very good target. But as you correctly say, we are not going to change our policy. But look, it's been 2 quarters where we have try to achieve that level. And depending on our investments depending on new projects that might come up, we believe that trying to reward our shareholders at this level is the thing we want to continue to do.

That's very good. Yes. So it seems like you're a bit concerned on the tanker order book and you have sold off ships. So -- how do you weigh -- let's say -- you even saw this modern ship Suezmax2014 build or 2024 bit.

'24, yes.

Yes. So how do you weigh continue holding on to these ships that make a lot of cash flow versus selling at this time.

Sure, there's always 3 things you can do. You operate spots, you fix on TC or you sell your vessel. And we believe that definitely on some of the vessels that we have sold, the price that we saw was something that we should do because of the extreme value that we could create, does that mean that we will sell even more vessels no. It's really on a case per case basis. We like the tanker market. As you know, we have some charter cover on some of our vessels. We have some very modern assets still in our fleet. But I think just look at the numbers over the past 30 years, prices we are seeing today, particularly for some of our VLCCs and Suezmaxes are an opportunity we want to take and then take some 1 of the table.

Yes. Makes sense. And any capital gain you are -- that's included in the dividend. That's very good. just like the last question I had, like a bigger picture. It seems like some of these Middle East companies that are buying up tankers to run the shuttle services and it can pay a lot basically for tanker assets today. So how do you feel about the current, let's say, vessel value and potential for further increases.

I think it's already very high. Can it increase more? It can definitely increase more. I agree with you that some of the Middle Eastern operators are taking a strategic view where the price they pay for the ship is not as important as having the security of an access to a vessel that can shuttle out their oil -- it remains to be seen how long this will last. But for the time being, there are still definitely buyers out there that want to buy secondhand tonnage at these kind of prices.

Yes, which makes sense, of course, if you're one of these guys that can ship out oil from the inside the Middle East, you're making more than 500,000 per day or something like that, right? So obviously, the payback on any ship is quite high. And so you have a group of people that basically sets the price for the whole market. So that's very interesting dynamics. Anyway, that's all the question I had.

We move on. Kristof Samoy.