Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings Inc. (CCW.F) Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good evening. This is Gomi, Head of Investor Relations for Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan Holdings. Thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2025 earnings presentation for analysts and investors. Today, we have our President, Calin Dragan; and CFO, Bjorn Ulgenes. We are also joined by Executive Officer and President of the retail company, Alex Gonzalez; Executive Officer, President of the Food Service Company and Chief Business Strategy Officer, Maki Kado; and Executive Officer, Chief Supply Chain Officer and Chief Sustainability Officer, Andrew Ferret; and Executive Officer and Chief Human Resources Officer, Yuki Higashi. Following prepared remarks, we will be happy to take questions. Simultaneous interpretation in both Japanese and English is being provided for both today's call and the Q&A. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements and should be considered together with cautionary statements in our presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Calin Dragan, Calin-san, please.

Good evening, everyone. This is Calin Dragan. And thank you for joining our earnings call. Today, in addition to our first half financial results, we will also be presenting our newly revised strategic business plan, Vision 2030, and upward revision of the current Vision 2028. First, let's begin by looking at today's highlights on Slide 3. I am very pleased to report another strong set of results. Business income for the first half saw a solid increase with the profit trend accelerating in the second quarter, resulting in a strong year-on-year gain of JPY 4.3 billion. Business income is progressing ahead of plan. Our initiatives, including price revisions and transformation efforts are also progressing ahead of plan and we are steadily building a foundation for further growth in the future. In the Vending Business, we have revalued fixed assets to optimize future capital allocation and as a result we have recorded a non-cash impairment loss. Considering this impairment and the strong earnings trend of the first half, we have revised our full year forecast. We now expect business income to reach JPY 23 billion, 15% above the original plan. We will continue to give our fullest efforts during the peak summer season. And if favorable business conditions persist, we see potential for further upside in business income till year end. Furthermore, as the most important point of this announcement, we have decided to revise upward our current strategic business plan, Vision 2028, and to launch a new vision, Vision 2030, aimed at further increasing shareholder value. The plan aims to achieve ambitious targets for 2030, including business income of over JPY 80 billion and ROIC of approximately double the capital cost. We will explain in more detail later. Vision 2030 incorporates new elements such as further collaboration with Coca-Cola Japan Company, including the joint formulation of long-term growth plans, business operations by business units with clear accountability and the rebuilding of the profit base of the Vending Business. Vision 2030 also includes shareholders return programs such as the largest share buyback programs in our history, totaling JPY 150 billion and an ambitious dividend increase plan with the aim to further increasing shareholders value. Now our CFO, Bjorn Ulgenes, will take you through our first half results.

Thank you, Calin. Good evening, everyone. This is Bjorn. Slide 5 shows our first half P&L statements. Revenue for the first half increased and business income also improved, indicating solid progress in our core performance. Sales volume remained at minus 1%, exceeding the markets, despite the impact of price revisions and other factors. Revenue rose by 1.6% year-on-year, driven by an increase in wholesale revenue per case, thanks to price revisions. Gross profits benefited from pricing but was partially offset by rising costs due to external factors and an unfavorable channel mix. Business income saw a significant year-on-year improvement of JPY 4.3 billion, supported by top line growth and cost savings from transformation initiatives. This mark's first half profitability for the first time since 2019. Details on the drivers of business income changes will be explained on the next slide. Operating income declined significantly year-on-year while business income improved. We recorded a non-cash impairment loss of JPY 88.1 billion in quarter 2 for fixed assets in the Vending Business to optimize future capital allocation. Additionally, we booked JPY 3.2 billion in expenses related to volunteer retirement program implemented as part of our transformation efforts. Net income also declined by JPY 65.6 billion year-on-year, mainly due to the drop in operating income. EBITDA grew by 20.3% year-on-year to JPY 24.2 billion, reflecting the increase in business income. Now please turn to Slide 6, which outlines the key drivers behind the changes in business income. Starting from the left, we see the impact of volume, price, and mix. These reflect changes in marginal profits from commercial activities contributing a positive JPY 4.8 billion year-on-year. Main drivers were volume impact, including channel mix, was a negative JPY 3.8 billion. Price impact was a strong positive at JPY 9.5 billion. Other factors contributing to a negative JPY 0.9 billion. While channel mix deteriorated due to shifting consumer trends, the improvement in wholesale revenue per case from price revisions made a significant positive contribution. Notably, rebates on items including in other reduced in quarter 2 due to tighter controls. Transformation initiatives contributed JPY 2.6 billion in benefits, driven by Vending transformation in the commercial field and supply chain network optimization. These initiatives are progressing as planned across all areas. Marketing expense decreased by JPY 0.8 billion year-on-year. While we reinforce sales activities ahead of the peak season, we also maintain strict cost discipline through a return-on-the-investment-focused marketing, resulting in overall cost savings. Manufacturing costs increased by JPY 0.2 billion year-on-year. Although cost saving measures at production sites delivered benefits, the declining in production volume led to an increase of manufacturing costs per case. Other costs rose by JPY 2 billion mainly from higher logistics costs, excluding transformation effects as well as increased fleet and facility related expenses. Finally, commodity and utility costs increased by JPY 1.7 billion amid a persistently challenging cost environment. This includes JPY 1.4 billion from higher raw material and packaging costs driven by markets and foreign exchange factors, and JPY 0.3 billion from increased utility costs. Now let's move on to Slide 7, outlining sales volume performance by channel and category. In the first half, despite volume declines due to the price revision implemented in October last year and cycling effect following the renewal of Ayataka in quarter 2 last year, we successfully limited the overall volume decline to minus 1%, outperforming the markets. This was achieved through strengthened focus on core categories, expanded shelf space and effective marketing initiatives. Wholesale revenue per case improved by double digit yen across all channels driven by the price revision. Supermarkets saw a 2% decline in volume, mainly due to reduced sales in large PET bottles following the price revision. Drug stores and discounters recorded a 1% increase, supported by growth in mid-size PET coffee products. Convenience stores experienced a 5% decline, impacted by the price revision, the cycling of last year's new product launches and increased discipline in promotional investments this year. In Vending, volume declined 5%, reflecting both a challenging market environment and the significant impact of the price revision. However, the price revisions show strong improvements in wholesale revenue per case with quarter 2 again exceeding JPY 100 per case following quarter 1. Retail and Food Service volumes rose 3%, supported by recovering demand in restaurants and tourist areas as well as growth in commercial juice products. Online sales grew 15%, driven by strong performance in the tea category and dedicated offerings such as labelless products. By category, sparkling beverages grew 1% led by Coca-Cola and Coca-Cola Zero. Tea grew 2% with strong contributions from Ayataka and Kocha Kaden. While Ayataka faced the cycling impact in quarter 2 following last year's renewal, performance were made within expectations and first half volume was up by 4%. Sports drinks, water and coffee declined primarily due to the impact of price revision. Now let's turn to Slide 8 where I will explain our revised full year earnings forecast. This revised full year earnings forecast reflects several key factors, the impact of the recently announced fixed asset impairments, refinement in Coca-Cola, Japan's marketing investments due to the evolving market dynamics and its implications for our business and the continued strong momentum in business income. There are no changes to our full-year revenue or volume plans. However, we are now targeting a full-year business income of JPY 23 billion, 15% above our original plan. From operating income and below, we expect a net loss due to the impairment, but this is a non-cash item and will not result in any cash outflow. The impairment of fixed assets in the Vending Business will contribute positively to earnings in the second half through reduced depreciation. On the other hand, the refinement in Coca-Cola Japan's marketing investments will have an adverse impact on profitability. We are currently in the peak summer season and the entire organization is working as one team. July sales volumes have already exceeded last year's levels. If favorable business conditions, including the effects of the price revision continue, we believe there is potential for further earnings improvements. For now, our focus is to ensure we deliver on the newly revised targets with discipline and determination. With that, I will now hand back to Calin, who will walk you through our newly announced strategic business plan, Vision 2030.

Thank you, Bjorn. And this is Calin again. Now let me take you through our new strategic business plan, Vision 2030. Please turn to slide 10. We are happy to announce Vision 2030, an ambitious upgrade to our previous plan, Vision 2028, which was announced just 2 years ago. Before diving into Vision 2030, I would like to briefly touch on the progress we have made towards Vision 2028 since its launch in August 2023. We are very satisfied with the steady progress of Vision 2028. Since its launch in 2023, we have fundamentally improved our performance, consistently exceeding business income targets each year. Looking at business income, we have achieved a remarkable turnaround of over JPY 26 billion in just 2 years, going from JPY 14.4 billion loss in 2022 to JPY 12 billion business income in 2024. Key initiatives under Vision 2028 have also advanced steadily, delivering real results. Through a profitability focused commercial strategy, we have grown volume while leading the industry by successfully executing multiple price revisions. On the transformation front, we have achieved about JPY 10 billion in cost savings over 2 years. We have also made significant progress in strengthening our foundation for future growth, including investments in technology and the development of strategic partnerships. In November 2024, we announced a comprehensive shareholder return program aligned with our Vision 2028. This marked a major step forward not only in earnings recovery, but also in expanding shareholders returns and improving capital efficiency. And in 2025, as Bjorn just explained, our business income continues to trend ahead of plan, prompting us to revise our full year forecast upward. Given the strong progress in both performance and strategic execution, we believe the foundation is firmly in place to pursue even more ambitious goals. Please refer to Slide 11. As mentioned, we have identified further opportunities and challenges along our trajectory for Vision 2028. In driving transformation, we see significant opportunities to further leverage data and technology. Our close collaboration with Coca-Cola Japan has deepened, enabling us to jointly develop a long-term growth strategy that extends beyond 2028. Through this partnership, we have recovered numerous avenues for growth. To further accelerate business growth, we have established a new organizational structure centered around multiple business units. This approach emphasizes clear delegation of autonomy and accountability to each unit. By redefining the strategic direction of each business unit, we aim to position the organization to deliver world-class returns in the future. In November 2024, we announced a comprehensive shareholder return program aligned with Vision 2028. However, we believe there is still opportunity to expand shareholder returns as we consider our needs to long-term performance targets, we are actively exploring additional opportunities to enhance shareholder value. These efforts, along with the lessons learned and achievements delivered to date, have strengthened our positive outlook for the future for our business operation. Reflecting our commitment to set ambitious targets and achieve them, we have decided to significantly revise up and elevate our current Vision 2028 strategy. And as a result, we are launching a new strategic business plan, Vision 2030, to guide us towards even greater aspirations. Please turn to Slide 12 for the trajectory and outlook for the enhanced shareholders return. At CCBJH, we put strong emphasis on shareholders' value creation. Since 2023, alongside significant improvement in business performance, we have accelerated the pace of shareholder returns. Thanks to our solid balance sheet and strong cash flow generation, we can now deliver robust shareholder returns. In November 2024, under the framework of Vision 2028, we updated our dividend policy centered on progressive dividends and announced our plan to increase dividends with a target payout ratio of 40% and a dividend on equity of 2.5%. At the same time, we launched a JPY 30 billion share buyback program which is progressing as planned. With the launch of the Vision 2030, we are further accelerating the efforts to enhance shareholder value. In addition to driving strong business growth, we will implement the largest shareholder return program in our corporate history. For dividends, we are raising our 2028 targets from JPY 74 per share to a new range of JPY 90 to JPY 100. By 2030, we aim to reach JPY 140 to JPY 150 per share, more than double to the this year's guidance, reflecting our strong ambition. Regarding the share buybacks, we are now announcing an additional JPY 30 billion share buyback. Over the 5 years through 2030, we plan to execute a cumulative share buyback of up to JPY 150 billion. Vision 2030 places shareholder value creation at the center of our strategy. Building on our proven track record of expanding shareholder returns, we are now embedding the largest return program in our history into our new strategic business plan. Please turn to Page 13. Let me walk you through our upgraded strategic business plan and the ambitious new targets we have set for 2030. Vision 2030 is our newly formulated 5-year strategic business plan covering the period from 2026 to 2030. In this plan, we have upwardly revised the key performance metrics of Vision 2028. Notably, we have raised our business income target by approximately JPY 5 billion. On the right side of the slide you will see our key targets for 2030. For revenue, we aim to deliver top line growth of 2% to 3% CAGR, outpacing volume growth through a profitability-focused top line strategy. Our target is to exceed JPY 1 trillion in revenue by 2030. We are targeting a business income of over JPY 80 billion by 2030, approximately double of our 2017 historical peak. To support this, we will drive transformation across commercial, supply chain and back office and IT areas, targeting cumulative transformation cost savings of JPY 30 billion to JPY 35 billion yen over 5 years. In parallel with profit growth, we will pursue capital efficiency improvements aiming to achieve ROIC of 10% or higher by 2030, approximately twice of our cost of capital. As noted on the previous slide, Vision 2030 also embeds the largest shareholder return programs in our history. We are targeting dividends of JPY 140 to JPY 150 per share by 2030 and a cumulative share buyback of JPY 150 billion over the 5-year period. With that said, we will now hand it over to Bjorn, who will take you through the details of the Vision 2030

Bjorn again. Please refer to Slide 14, which outlines the key [ strategic vision ] of our strategic business plan, Vision 2030. To further enhance profitability and capital efficiency, we aim to improve market execution and profitability within our 3 business units, Vending, OTC and Food Service, while increasing performance transparency and clarifying accountability. Through these efforts, we are committed to achieving unified company-wide objectives. Additionally, the transformation initiatives in supply chain, back-office operations and IT, which were launched as part of Vision 2028, remains a critical pillar of our strategy. We will continue to accelerate these efforts moving forward. Now let us walk you through the specific initiatives starting from the next slide. Please turn to Slide 15. Going forward, we will operate our Vending Business with a retail mindset. Measured by the number of consumer touch points, our Vending network represents one of the largest [ NERTD ] retail platforms in the world. We have been leading the industry in transforming the Vending Business. Through digitization, technology utilization and operation process redesign, we have driven significant productivity improvements such as vending route optimization. Looking ahead to 2030, we will further leverage big data, our extensive consumer insights and the technology infrastructure we have built to date. This will enable data-driven, efficient and effective decision-making across all aspects of the business from location selection and product assortment to pricing optimization, maximizing the impact of each initiative. We will also enhance digital marketing through our proprietary digital asset, the Coke ON app, deepening consumer engagement and driving conversion at the point of sale. At the same time, we continue to improve vending machine usability. In addition, based on individual machine-level profitability analytics, we will implement more precise profit management, allowing for better optimization of vending locations and refinement of proportional investments. While we have recorded a noncash impairment loss through a reevaluation of Vending assets to enable optimal future capital allocation, our commitment to the Vending Business remains totally unchanged. By combining our operational expertise, proprietary data assets and transformation capabilities, we will accelerate the rollout of high-impact initiatives with speed and efficiency, delivering early improvements -- yearly improvements in profitability. If you turn to Slide 16, you will see an outline of our strategic initiatives for the OTC and Food Service channels. In both businesses, we are accelerating efforts by benchmarking against global bottlers to enhance returns in each channel. Starting with OTC, which we expect to be a key growth driver going forward, we will execute top line strategies focused on identifying and capturing high-growth opportunities. To drive top line growth, we will leverage data to precisely understand consumer trends and deploy targeted return-on-investment-focused marketing initiatives, particularly in densely populated urban areas where strong long-term growth potential is expected. One of the key pillars of this strategy is the flexible pricing approach. Building on learnings from the past revision, we will evolve our pricing strategy by integrating it with category and packaging strategies. Additional price increases remain under consideration as a potential lever to support profitability improvements. We will also accelerate growth in core brands and core categories by leveraging digital tools to create new beverage consumption occasions, attractive in-store execution and strengthen strategic partnerships with key customers. In particular, we will continue to expand sales in high-growth areas such as the online channel. Turning to Food Service. We will expand business opportunities by strengthening our proposal capabilities to customers and increasing consumption occasions. We will fully leverage our solid presence in the channel and the strength of the Coca-Cola system to deepen strategic partnerships with customers. We will also continue to proactively approach prospective growth channels to capture new demand while improving profitability and capital efficiency by optimizing equipment investments and reviewing commercial terms. To support these efforts, we will enhance organizational capabilities and frontline execution while leveraging technology to strengthen our competitive edge. Let's move to Slide 17 now. In the areas of supply chain, back office and IT, we are accelerating digital-driven transformation to achieve cost reductions while strengthening our operational foundation. For supply chain, we have already delivered significant results through initiatives such as the launch of the automated logistics mega distribution centers, mega DCs, the implementation of the sales and operational planning process and the promotion of a local production for local consumption model. These efforts have enhanced our supply chain network, driving cost efficiencies and contributing to the establishment of a more resilient business foundation. Looking ahead, we will continue to optimize end-to-end supply chain processes by fully leveraging digital capabilities. This includes further advancing the local production for local consumption model to reduce logistics costs and improve capital efficiency, enhancing the accuracy of the sales and operational planning processes to optimize and reduce product inventory levels and strengthening our network through the utilization of integrated distribution centers. For back office and IT domains, we remain focused on advancing data-driven management by building a robust foundation. To reinforce our digital infrastructure over the medium to long term, we are integrating IT systems and data while accelerating efforts to fundamentally restructure workflows, standardize and automize processes through technology. By deepening collaboration with our partners, we aim to achieve world-class operations and further evolve data-driven decision-making across the organization. Slide 18 focuses on our financial strategy and shareholder return measures. Under Vision 2030, we are prioritizing capital efficiency while driving performance improvements and executing the largest shareholder return program in our corporate history. To enhance capital efficiency, we are targeting ROIC of over 10% by 2030 and will implement a range of strategic measures to achieve this. Capital investments will be carefully selected based on the return on investment with a disciplined approach to ensure cash flow generation for shareholder returns. Over the period leading up to 2030, we plan to maintain annual capital expenditures at an average level of JPY 30 billion to JPY 35 billion per year, within the range of depreciation expenses. To optimize our balance sheet, we will focus on divesting idle assets, selling cross-sell shares and improve product inventory turnover. From a capital deployment perspective, we will continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize financial leverage. Strengthening shareholder returns will be achieved through generation of stable cash flows and disciplined allocation of capital to ensure optimal returns. Now let me ask Calin to come back for the summary.

Thank you, Bjorn. Finally, please refer to Slide 19, which provides a summary of today's presentation. With the newly announced Vision 2030, we aim to further enhance profitability and capital efficiency, targeting business income of over JPY 80 billion by 2030, approximately double of our company's record high and achieving a double-digit ROIC about twice of our cost of capital. We have also outlined plans to execute the largest shareholder return program in our corporate history. And by 2030, we aim to increase dividends per share to JPY 140 to JPY 150, approximately 2.5x the forecasted dividend for this year, reflecting a robust commitment to dividend growth. Additionally, we plan to conduct aggressive share buybacks totaling JPY 150 billion over the next 5 years. This ambitious management goals represent an unprecedented level of aspiration for our company. And by achieving these targets, we will deliver significant increase in shareholder value. Since 2023, we have achieved substantial performance improvements. In terms of business income, we have committed and consistently outperformed the target set at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, our efforts to strengthen the foundation for long-term growth through transformation initiatives have yielded significant outcomes. Achievements and the lessons we have learned along the way have given us the confidence to set and pursue this ambitious target. We are fully committed to achieving the targets outlined in this new strategic business plan, Vision 2030, and to drive further increases in shareholder value. This concludes today's presentation. Thank you so much for your attention. With that, I will hand it over to Gomi-san for the question-and-answer session.

Thank you, Calin-san. This Q&A session is for analysts and investors. For members of the media, please refrain from asking questions at this time as we will have a separate Q&A session later today. Due to interpretation please ask only 1 question at a time. Now I would like to start the Q&A session. Operator, please begin.

[Interpreted] [Operator Instructions] From UBS Securities, this is Ihara-san.

[Interpreted] This is Ihara from UBS Securities. So my first question is, I want to confirm numbers. So the impairment loss is what you have adjusted and the depreciation negative number, what is going to be the negative number for the impairment loss? And due to this impairment, most of it is vending machine, I think. Is that correct? And looking at the securities report, it's about JPY 85 billion for selling the asset. So I think mostly it's vending machines. Is that the correct understanding? And another question is, will you have further impairment coming up?

Thank you, Ihara-san for the question. So you want to confirm some numbers. So this is about the impairment loss, and you want to check if it's mostly Vending or not. And after this, is there going to be any additional impairment or not? So Bjorn-san, please?

Thank you, Ihara-san. Yes, it's correct that most of this impairment impact recorded in Q2 is related to Vending. And with this onetime noncash impairment, we do not expect any further impairments of assets at this point in time. Thank you.

[Interpreted] I see. And the depreciation cost, what is going to be for the annual number?

Yes. So as for the depreciation number for the year, Bjorn-san would like to answer.

San, we estimate the impact for 2025 to be in the range of JPY 4 billion to JPY 5 billion positive. I hope that answered your question. Thank you.

[Interpreted] Okay. I see. So annually, it will be like JPY 8 billion to JPY 10 billion annually. Okay. Understood. So it's mostly vending machines that you have impaired. Understood. So I have another question. So 2030, the ROE, what is your target? I would like to know because JPY 80 billion is the business income, and you're going to have the dividend as well. And the ROE is like 13% or maybe 14% or so. I think that will be the number that you're aiming for based on my calculation. But looking at 2030 ROE target, what would it be?

So 2030 ROE target. This will be from Bjorn-san again, please.

Thank you, Ihara-san. Let me just first comment that our main focus is return on invested capital to double our cost of capital. That is the measure we're focusing on, as you saw from the prepared remarks. For the ROE, we would aim at around 12% plus as the target.

Operator, please put through the next question.

[Interpreted] Next question is from Saji-san from Mizuho Securities.

[Interpreted] I would like to ask about couple of things. One is the impairment with regard to the Vending Business. So you are saying that the reason of this is to enable the best capital allocation for the future. But why now this JPY 88 billion impairment have to be incurred now? And what is the background to having this at this point in time? And also another question is about the CCJC's change in their market investment method. So to be more -- can you be more specific in the background to the changes? What were the reason why they are changing? Which kind of process they went through to change this method?

Thank you for your question. The first question is about the impairment in the Vending Business unit area. Why now? And what's the background to us doing this to rational that for future optimization. So Bjorn, would you like to take it up, please?

Thank you, Saji-san, for the question. The impairment of the Vending assets comes from a couple of reasons. First, we have made the decision, as you've seen in the financial statements and the prepared remarks, to run our business in 3 segments: Vending, the OTC, over-the-counter, and the Food Service Business. Based on that, we were able to isolate the effect of the asset utilization on Vending, and that again led to the impairment adjustment. So it's very important to see this as a sequence. Secondly, on the why-now question is also related to what we have talked about earlier. We are learning every day and getting more and more data-driven. And by using data, running the business in the 3 segments and really looking to reset Vending to capture the retail leadership that we believe this channel deserves, we decided to run the impairment for now. When it comes to the Coca-Cola Japan marketing investments, we see dynamic market changes, but that does not change the relationship with CCJC. And we have also, as you saw in the prepared remarks, done a long-term growth plan together with CCJC in strong collaboration, which we believe is a fundamental building block in our Vision 2030. I hope that answered your question. Thank you.

[Interpreted] In 2028, you mentioned that you are going to hit JPY 5 billion for 2028. That is to say you are going to have a JPY 10 billion plus, right? So is there any -- all these changes from the JC will be a negative impact, is it?

So your question is about the BI in 2028. With the depreciation, we have the upswing. So Bjorn, would you like to explain about that?

-- question, Saji-san. So yes, we are revising up the 2028 targets in the range of JPY 50 billion to JPY 55 billion. And as we said, when it comes to the impairment part, the annualized effect will be in the JPY 8 billion to JPY 10 billion going forward. But as you progress over the years, the effect will be diminished because we continue to invest in the marketplace for growth opportunities. And when it comes to revising up there for 2025, we are maintaining the revenue targets. We're maintaining our transformational deliveries. And therefore, we believe the JPY 5 billion uplift in 2028 is the appropriate number and target.

Operator, please put through the next question.

[Interpreted] JPMorgan Securities, Fujiwara-san.

[Interpreted] Fujiwara from JPMorgan speaking. I have a question. 2028 and 2030 profit target. Previously, under your leadership, you have used a driver as a price revision in the market. But still the share competition is very fierce and the PB is growing. In this tough business environment in 2028, 2028-'30, you have a really high target. Why are you so confident to be able to achieve? So JPY 45 billion to JPY 50 billion might be also difficult. So what is the source of your confidence about that? I'd like to know that.

Fujiwara-san, thank you for the question. So in the tough competitive environment and with the new target, how are you going to achieve the new high target? So from the commercial point of view, Alex will answer the question.

Thank you, Alex here. Essentially, the revised upward in the new strategic plan, it comes on the back of robust opportunity and consumer opportunity mapping of where the growth in Japan will be. And I think this on the back of our ability over the last 2 years to deliver on a very strong trajectory of business income growth, it gives us the confidence that on our ability to drive further growth in Japan. We have already delivered on our promises every quarter since coming out of COVID. And we are displaying a growth mindset. We have been leading the industry in price revisions. Over the last 3 years, we have executed and implemented with discipline our price revisions. We have -- are building on our capabilities of driving profitable top line growth with the focus on our core portfolio. And examples and evidence of that is our success with Ayataka and the renewal. At the same time, we are delivering on a very strong transformation behind leveraging data and digital to transform our Vending Business for profitable growth. So in the back of this -- the evidence of our trajectory, again, over the last 2 years and our renewed partnership with the Coca-Cola Company to look at further opportunity pulls on, again, on a robust consumer opportunity and backing also the emergence of demographic shifts into the Japanese market gives us the confidence in our ability to drive a renewed Vision 2030.

Operator, please go to the next question.

[Interpreted] Next, we have Igarashi-san from Daiwa.

[Interpreted] This is Igarashi from Daiwa. My question is about BI. I'd like to understand the pace of growth on an annual basis. As you mentioned, you booked impairment that will lead to the reduced depreciation. But from '25 to '26, I think that will accelerate the growth pace in these 2 years. That's the first question. And towards '28 and 2030, is it an equal pace on an annual basis? Or will there be a certain acceleration in a certain year?

Igarashi-san, thank you very much for your question. So you would like to understand the growth pace of business income over the period of the vision. So Bjorn-san, please take this question.

Thank you, Igarashi-san. So yes, as we said, the impairment while driving a loss at the net income line will improve our business income, in other words, our recurring profit line. For this year, as I said earlier, we estimate an impact of positive JPY 4 billion to JPY 5 billion and therefore annualized next year around JPY 8 billion to JPY 10 billion. While we do not disclose yearly earnings, we have disclosed the 2028 and the 2030 targets for your consumption. But overall, we look for linear development in general, but we will come back with the 2026 targets in February according to the normal cycle.

[Interpreted] Could you please repeat, from '25 to '28, could you please, how you see the annual growth rate from '25 to '28 during the period of Vision 2028.

[Interpreted] So I will take this question. As for the profitability, in the first early part of Vision '28 from second half of this year, we will have the impact of impairment and depreciation, but we are not disclosing the annual plan. And '28 business income has been announced, but we are not disclosing the annual growth. So in February next year, we will share more detail.

Operator, please put the next question.

[Interpreted] From Nomura Securities, this is Morita-san.

[Interpreted] This is Morita-san from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions. My first question is, so the shareholder return, you mentioned that this is going to be in a massive scale and JPY 30 billion share buyback is what you have communicated. And profit-wise, if you're going to get your profit as planned, probably there's no issues there. But let's say, for example, if you're not able to hit the profit that you have in your plan, what -- how are you going to control it? So is it net EBITDA or what are you going to control on the finance side? Is there any discipline that you're going to kick in if you're not able to hit the profit?

Morita-san, thank you for the question. And we have announced that the shareholder -- sorry, the shareholder return is going to be massive. And if there is anything that we can do financial-wise, if we can hit the profit target. This will be from Bjorn-san, please.

So first and foremost, our baseline profitability improvements of course is the foundation for delivering the biggest shareholder value program we have had in our company. And while we always have to look out for market dynamics and swings in consumption, pricing or inflation for that matter, we will always take measures to mitigate such impacts. And that we do through ongoing processes that we already have in place, and we will continue doing that going forward to again make sure that we can deliver the biggest shareholder value program in our company's history. I hope that answered your question. Thank you.

[Interpreted] So financial discipline, do you like monitor certain areas? So the additional question. So financial indicators, are there any special ones that you monitor and control?

Since I can give you one example that we have talked about several times in these calls, we have a very strict policy and process around capital allocation in the company. And by following that very stringently, we ensure that we always invest, one, for growth; and two, make sure that we can deliver on our commitments for dividends and share buybacks. In the end, these are ongoing management routines that we have in place. And of course we will continue to strengthen as we move into executing Vision 2030.

[Interpreted] Okay, understood. And my second question might be a similar question, but share buyback, you are very aggressive in your communication. So once again, why is it not dividend? And is it -- are you going to do the share buyback, not dividend? So if you do it in this amount, the liquidity will be low, I am guessing. So buying back shares and the dividend, how are you going to strike the balance between the 2? That's my question.

Thank you, Morita-san, for the question. So we have announced that we are going to do a massive share buyback and how we're going to balance the dividend versus the share buyback. So Bjorn-san, please?

Thank you, Morita-san, again. So yes, correct. We are doing both a dividend increase and share buybacks as part of our Vision 2030 program. And again, this is the biggest shareholder value program that we have executed and launched as a company. And by doing both, one, we're sticking to the concept of reaching the 40% payout ratio for the dividends. And therefore, we are increasing our dividend expectations for 2028, and you can see it going up also through 2030. We are using always different metrics back to your prior question about capital allocation and mitigation efforts. But to us, it's very important to, one, pay the annual dividends and two, with the right market conditions also continue buying back our stock at the right price. Thank you.

So that will be it for the request, and it is time, and we would like to finish the Q&A session. The contents of today's presentation will be available on our website from this presentation. If you have any questions or feedback, please contact the IR team. Thank you very much for joining the call today. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]