Collins Foods Limited (CKF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Collins Foods Limited FY '24 Results Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Kevin Perkins, Interim CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everybody. As our host just said, I'm Kevin Perkins, the Interim Managing Director and CEO of Collins Foods. Joining me on the call today is our Group CFO, Andrew Leyden, and we will take you through Collins Foods' very pleasing results for the 2024 fiscal year, which was the 52-week period to the 28th of April 2024. We also have Helen Moore and Hans Miete with us who run our KFC business in Australia and Europe respectively, who will participate in the Q&A sessions after the presentation. For those of you who haven't met me prior to my interim appointment in February, I served on the Board as a Collins Foods Non-Executive Director for 13 years and was CEO of the business from 1985 to 2013. Consequently, I have an in-depth understanding of the drivers of our business. And my other call to fame is I'm probably the only one left in the business who's actually met Colonel Sanders. And I have been in this interim position for some time now. I've been very impressed by the bench strength of Collins Food's senior leadership team. And the team and I look forward to meeting many of our shareholders over the coming days. Please note, as we take you through today's results, financials are presented on a post-AASB 16 basis, unless stated otherwise. For those of you more accustomed to pre-AASB 16 numbers, we have made them available in the appendices to the investor presentation. If I now refer you to Slide 1, in one of the most challenging consumer environments in recent years, we are very pleased with the results that Collins Foods maintained its positive momentum, delivering solid growth across revenue, same-store sales and earnings. The FY '24 group results highlights include record revenue of $1,488.9 million, up 10.4% on the prior year, with the growth across all business units. Improved profitability with underlying EBITDA up 12% to $229.8 million, driven by sales growth and cost efficiencies, which helped mitigate inflation. Statutory NPAT of $76.7 million compared with $12.7 million last year, with underlying NPAT of $60 million, up 15.6%. Net operating cash flow was up $30 million to $176.4 million and our network continues to grow with 17 net new unit restaurants added across the group in FY '24, bringing our total footprint to 381. As a result of our FY '24 performance and strong balance sheet, the directors declared a fully franked final dividend of $0.155 per share, $0.01 ahead of the prior year, bringing the full year dividend to $0.28 per share, up from $0.27 in '23. Our cash generating characteristics and moderate debt position are a highlight of our business, leaving us with capacity to invest in attractive growth opportunities moving forward. If I'd like to turn you to Slide 2 to operating highlights by business unit, our solid performance was supported by sales growth through digital channels, product innovation and value initiatives across all business units. Impressively, the team achieved this growth in a more challenging macro environment with significant cost of living pressures impacting consumers and ongoing cost inflation across key input lines, especially labor. KFC Australia same-store sales increased 3.8% despite the challenging consumer backdrop driven by brand strength and strong digital growth, which accounted for 30.6% of sales in the second half. KFC's consistent approach to value is resonating with customers and the brand has maintained market share. At the same time, scale and operational efficiencies offset a higher cost environment with margins up 57 basis points on prior year. And we continue to exceed our development agreement pace, opening 9 new units across the --during the financial year. KFC Europe continues to demonstrate its growth potential, delivering positive same-store sales of 4.9% while cycling double-digit increases in the prior -- 2 prior years. Same-store sales were up 4.3% in Netherlands and plus 6.4% in Germany. Value marketing, menu innovation and a growing network have contributed to record high brand metrics and market share gains in the Netherlands, while operational efficiencies and supply chain savings have helped protect margins. Taco Bell Australia achieved same-store sales growth of 3.5% as improved food quality, value marketing campaigns and delivery expansion lifted brand awareness and supported consumer trial. We're continuing to optimize the brand's foundations across our network of 27 restaurants in metro suburban geographies in Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia. I'll now hand over to Andrew, our Group CFO, to take you through group and segment results. Andrew?

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everybody. Let's start with an overview of our financial performance on Slide 4. As Kevin mentioned, Collins Foods delivered solid growth across all key metrics despite softer trading conditions and inflationary pressures. Group revenue grew 10.4% to a record $1.5 billion, supporting double-digit increases in underlying earnings. Underlying EBITDA from continuing operations increased 12% on the prior year to $229.8 million. Underlying EBIT also increased, up 15% over the same period to $124.1 million. On a statutory basis, net profit after tax was $76.7 million, up from $12.7 million last year. This result reflects a stronger underlying performance, $20.2 million of profit from the sale of Sizzler Asia in this financial year and $36.7 million relating to the impairment of Taco Bell in financial year '23. Statutory NPAT also benefited from a $4.6 million depreciation saving due to the impairment of Taco Bell in the prior year. Underlying net profit after tax increased 15.6% over the prior year to $60 million. And underlying basic earnings per share also increased, up 15.3% to $0.51 per share. The real highlight of this result was the strong cash performance in the year, with net operating cash flows of $176.4 million. We also significantly reduced net debt over the year, down $46.7 million to $165.5 million, reflecting the Sizzler Asia sale and strong operating cash generation. A fully franked dividend of $0.155 per share was declared, with a full year dividend at $0.28 per share, up $0.01 on the prior year. Now turning to the income statement on Slide 5. Major reconciling items between underlying and statutory profit and loss results include $21.1 million of net profit after tax relating to discontinued operations, primarily reflecting the gain on the sale of Sizzler Asia and $4.3 million in non-trading net profit after tax, comprising $3.4 million in impairment charges for Taco Bell and 1 European store, $2.1 million in acquisition and refinancing costs, offset by a $1.2 million write-back of Taco Bell onerous leases from financial year '23. Basic earnings per share of $0.653 included Sizzler Asia sale profits. And as I mentioned earlier, underlying EPS saw double-digit growth on the same period last year. And let's move to the cash flow statement on Slide 6. The business remained highly cash-generative in financial year '24 with net operating cash flow increasing by $30 million on the prior year to $176.4 million, facilitating reinvestment in new restaurants, in remodels and acquisitions as well as enabling debt reduction and higher dividend payments. Investing cash outflows reduced $40 million to $53.6 million, despite increased investment in capital expenditure to support portfolio additions and renovation as well as investments in technology to enable continued growth in digital channels. This investment was offset by $23.1 million of proceeds from the sale of Sizzler Asia. Financing cash outflows were $118.9 million, inclusive of $41 million of debt repayments, $46.6 million used to repay lease principles and $30 million in dividend payments to shareholders. The cash-generative characteristics of our business continues to be a real highlight, enabling investment in future growth opportunities. Now let's turn to the balance sheet on Slide 7. We entered financial year '25 with a very strong balance sheet and significant investment capacity to support growth. Net debt was reduced by $46.7 million to $165 million, our cash balance increased to $84 million and the net leverage ratio materially improved to 1.07. Other current assets were $24.3 million lower due to $12.2 million of Sizzler Asia assets held for sale and $13.3 million of acquisition deposits being discharged in the period. Property, plant and equipment increased $30.8 million on the prior period to $255.3 million, reflecting new restaurant builds, remodels and acquisitions, of course, less depreciation. Right of use assets of $489.1 million and lease liabilities of $586 million, both rose on restaurant additions as did other non-current assets, primarily reflecting movements in intangibles. Moving now to segment performance and starting with KFC Australia on Slide 9. Our Australian KFC operations continued to scale with revenue up 6.6% over the prior year to $1.1 billion. Higher revenue was driven by same-store sales growth of 3.8% and the addition of 7 net new restaurants, bringing our footprint to 279 restaurants nationally. Greater scale and efficiency improvements lifted profitability with underlying EBITDA up 9.8% to $221.4 million, offsetting higher costs across many input lines. EBITDA margins improved 57 basis points to 19.8%, whilst EBIT margins improved 41 basis points to 13.4%. Now turning to KFC Australia's brand characteristics on Slide 10. In difficult economic environments, consumers turn to brands that they know and trust. And in the YouGov graphs on the slide, you can see that KFC is synonymous with great tasting food and affordability and we continue to outperform competitors on these key metrics. We're investing in menu innovation. We're further contemporizing the brand through enhanced core products and limited time offers such as [ hot rolls] and the double waffle to engage light, lapsed and engaged consumers. Branding culture initiatives and targeted app-only promotions such as Kentucky Fly Chicken are also enabling us to remain top of mind, providing consumers with relevant value offers at the right time. Now moving on to Slide 11. Digital channels continue to improve accessibility to the brand, which supports sales growth. Digital accounted for just over 30% of total sales in the second half, up 6.3 percentage points on the same period last year, driven primarily by higher app adoption. In addition to convenience, app acquisition supports future growth for the brand, improving engagement and facilitating the retargeting of opportunities. We're continuing to invest in these channels, including a more extensive kiosk rollout plan, dedicated delivery driver entrances and new customer listening tools to improve the experience at KFC. The brand's physical saliency is also improving, with KFC being the fastest-growing QSR brand in Australia in 2023 in terms of net new builds. There's now a KFC located within 3 kilometers for 71% of Australians. We're continuing to modernize and increase customer capacity within our Australian network, with 70 restaurants remodeled in financial year '24, leveraging dual-lane drive-thrus and T-line kitchen layouts to improve production throughput, which is key at peak times and really assists in terms of speed of service. This operational efficiency plays a key role in protecting margins. Now turning to our growing European segments on Slide 13. Our KFC Europe business delivered another strong performance with growth in revenue, same-store sales and earnings, despite cost of living and inflationary pressures impacting the broader QSR sector. Revenue increased 26% over the prior year to $314 million, benefiting from 11 new restaurants and favorable currency translation. Same-store sales in Europe increased 4.9%, an impressive achievement given we were cycling 2 consecutive years of double-digit growth and a more challenging consumer environment. Netherlands same-store sales increased 4.3% while Germany rose 6.4%. Underlying European EBITDA of $42.5 million was up 30% on the prior year with margins stable as operational initiatives mitigated inflationary pressures across key inputs. EBIT was $12.1 million, up 33% on the prior year. Now moving to Slide 14, which highlights the strength of our brand fundamentals. Marketing and operational controls in the Netherlands under our Corporate Franchise Agreement or CFA has lifted brand awareness and consideration to record levels, and we've enjoyed share gains relative to our competitors. Product innovation has played an important role in increasing brand relevance with the successful launch of a KFC version of a cult Dutch dish, new veggie options and higher welfare chicken choices on the menu. While the fundamentals of KFC are the same in every market, and that is affordable, great-tasting food, we understand the importance of meeting local consumer expectations. More than half of Dutch consumers are flexitarians and as a KFC market, the Netherlands is a global leader for plant-based alternatives. As in Australia, value is a key pillar of our strategy and our approach to affordability has resonated with consumers feeling the pinch from significant cost of living pressures. Digital is another key growth driver for the business, accounting for more than half of all sales in both the Netherlands and Germany, with kiosks being a major contributor. Turning now to Slide 15. We added 11 new restaurants to reach 59 restaurants in our Netherlands network over the year, inclusive of 3 new builds shown here on the slide. Development in energy grid challenges have impacted the speed of progress in the Netherlands. However, we remain confident in the long-term opportunity and are finding innovative solutions to scale the brand in this market. We're unlocking new trade zones with smaller format drive-thrus known as DelCo Drive and we're first to market with a battery-supported restaurant in Den Bosch, which is one of the restaurants on the slide. Investment in energy resources has seen consumption reduce 3% across the network this year, with 1 location achieving a 15% saving. Despite some development setbacks over the past year, we see significant growth opportunities for Collins Foods in Europe given the KFC brand remains underpenetrated relative to competitors across the continent. In addition to our growing pipeline in the Netherlands, our team is also actively evaluating M&A in Europe to accelerate growth. And turning now to Taco Bell on Slide 17. Taco Bell has marked a strong year of recovery, benefiting from significant strengthened brand foundations, an improved food offering and higher marketing investment. Revenue was up 11.7% to $54 million, despite a slightly smaller footprint than the same period last year, driven improved brand perceptions as well as the full year impact of the introduction of Uber Eats last year. EBITDA at a restaurant level of $3.4 million was impacted by increased investment in media and marketing to support brand awareness and consumer trial. Development remains temporarily paused as we continue to optimize our network of 27 restaurants across Southeast Queensland, Victoria, which is our strongest performing state, and Western Australia. The continued strong performance of Victoria, again, remains a highlight, which is indicative of the quality of the locations we have in that state. Now moving to Slide 18. Taco Bell's growth was driven by higher value products, more effective marketing and strong value credentials at a time when value really matters to consumers. We've improved the taste and quality of our product offering and introduced innovation at key price points such as the $5 Lava Crunch and $10 Enchilada burrito meal, which has attracted new consumers to the brand. Successful collaborations with iconic brands such as Vegemite and Arnott's have lifted relevance and engagement, outperforming all previous brand campaigns. And our successful Uber Eats rollout has improved accessibility, supporting growth in digital and delivery. In the second half, these channels accounted for 30% of all sales. We're encouraged by Taco Bell's performance over the past year and are continuing to solidify its position as a genuine QSR proposition within the fast-growing Mexican category. And with that, I'll hand back to Kevin.

Thanks, Andrew. I'd like now to move to Slide 19 to our ESG credentials. Over the past year, we expanded our ESG program to focus on initiatives under the 5 key pillars of operations, people, communities, planet and governance. Our FY '24 progress is highlighted on the slide. We continue to reduce our environmental footprint with more than half of our restaurant network generating solar power, environmentally conscious designs are being implemented for new builds and remodels and LED lighting is now in all Australian restaurants. New energy initiatives in Europe, such as battery-supported restaurants and energy-neutral buildings have reduced our energy consumption across the network. On the social and governance front, we are leading the way in gender equality with a gender pay gap of less than 5%. We are the first employer for many young people and are continuing to upskill our talent with 95% of restaurant manager positions being filled by internal candidates. Turning now to Slide 21 and our outlook for FY '25. Sales volatility in the first 7 weeks of FY '25 reflected the continuation of a weaker consumer environment in Australia and Europe, as well as lapping the very strong comparatives in the prior year. We expect significant cost of living pressures and a higher cost environment to remain for much of the year ahead, impacting sales growth with ongoing margin pressures across our business. In this environment, maintaining brand health is essential for our mid-and long-term success and we will continue to prioritize everyday value to retain customer trust. The current environment has not dampened our enthusiasm for growth and we are confident margins will recover as trading conditions improve. The strong operational expertise of our management team will continue to find efficiencies across labor, supply chain and energy. KFC Australia total sales increased 1.5% for the first 7 weeks of the year. Same-store sales were down 0.8% over the same period, reflecting the cycling of a strong prior period, a more subdued customer sentiment and some planned cannibalization impact from the addition of new restaurants to the network and the early closure of some restaurants for major remodel work. As consumers navigate cost-of-living pressures, we will continue to prioritize value, digital expansion and product innovation to drive revenue. We continue to expand our network with 9 new builds expected in FY '25 and we are very, very open to M&A opportunities as they present themselves. Operational efficiency and supply chain initiatives will remain in place to support margins. KFC Europe's performance in the first 7 weeks of FY '25 reflected the deteriorating consumer landscape and a very strong growth in the prior period, with total sales broadly flat. Same-store sales were down 2.3% in the Netherlands and 2.8% in Germany. Our Netherlands business also continues to be impacted by consumer reaction to the conflicts in the Middle East. In these challenging conditions, we will continue to focus on value, menu and digital innovation to support sales and market share. Commodities are stabilizing. However labor remains elevated and will exert pressure on the margins over the year ahead. Our development pipeline continues to build and we look forward to adding new restaurants to our network over FY '25. We're also very actively evaluating M&A opportunities in Europe to accelerate growth and create greater scale. Taco Bell's positive momentum continued into the new fiscal year with same-store sales slightly up on the first 7 weeks. We expect the brand will continue its momentum into FY '25, benefiting from targeted digital marketing campaigns, strong value credentials and increased media and marketing investments from Collins and Taco Bell International. Like our KFC business units, a higher cost environment and more challenging consumer environment will impact margins. Restaurant rollout is currently paused and we will continue to review our development plans against performance milestones. Importantly, whilst there are short-term headwinds, we remain excited, enthusiastic about our growth potential. We have a strong, experienced management team and operate some of the strongest QSR brands globally. We expect revenues and margins to improve as short-term pressures dissipate and we look forward to creating greater brands -- greater scale in our network organically and inorganically. On Slide 22, Collins Foods remains well positioned to deliver sustainable, long-term growth, operating world-class value brands with the resilient -- within the resilient QSR sector. Our consistent approach to affordability and long-term performance has enabled us to weather the challenging macro environment better than many of our peers and we are well-positioned to quickly take advantage of market conditions as they improve. We are leveraging our strong balance sheet to expand our network with a proven growth strategy based on everyday value, product innovation and greater flexibility. Finally, I would like to sincerely thank our many stakeholders, and especially team members and shareholders, of which I am one and possibly the largest, for their continued support. That concludes the presentation. I will now open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Peter Marks from Barrenjoey.

Just wanted to touch on the increasing prominence of you guys discussing M&A in both Australia and Europe. Can you just talk through if that is an actual step change in your intentions? And then just on each of the markets, like in Australia, would you look at buying KFCs or perhaps consider a different brand? And then Europe, are you looking at different countries? Or is it again just focused on KFCs in Netherlands and Germany?

Well, it's -- well, we're focusing very heavily on KFC at this stage. We're always open to new brands, but we don't see anything much out there that strikes our fancy. So heavily looking at KFC, looking at opportunities in Australia and looking for stores that may be up for sale where we can basically buy and build, which have excess capacity to build new stores. And we're exploring other opportunities in Europe, in other countries where we see the same sort of situation where we can buy a group of stores and then rapidly expand in those territories. So we're not restricting our thinking to the Netherlands and Germany at the moment. So we're exploring opportunities in neighboring countries.

Peter, I think just to add to Kevin's comments, just further to our conversation earlier this morning, if you look at Europe, we consider our business in Europe to be subscale and therefore, we have an opportunity to scale our business profitably. And therefore, I think if you want to read into that probably more proactive stance from us and I think that might be appropriate. Australia remains opportunistic. I think it's -- we have scale in Australia. We're on a very profitable business. And clearly, there are opportunities to add to our portfolio, leverage the G&A that we have supporting that business and that clearly makes financial sense for us.

Great. And then maybe if I can just sneak another short-term question in. Like I think in the outlook commentary you just provided, you talked to the Australian comp being impacted by some planned cannibalization, additions of new stores and some early closures of stores. Are you able to quantify just what that impact was? I know it's only a 7-week trading period, but it'd be interesting to get like a bit of an underlying read on what the comp is doing for the remainder of the network.

Yes, Peter, I'm going to invite Helen just to answer that. Off you go, Helen.

Peter, we're seeing a very normal cannibalization profile for our business. So typically we'd expect about 1% each year impact from cannibalization of new restaurants. We're continuing to see that this year as we continue to expand the network. So that's not uncommon or different. In terms of remodels, we have launched a new program called supercharged remodels, which we referenced in the deck. And effectively, what we're doing is taking a small number of stores that are undergoing a major remodel and adding additional items like dual lanes, T-lines and such like to those restaurants. That program of work is slightly different in timing this year to what it was last year. So in the current 7-week period, we have more major stores closed for remodel than we did in the same 7-week period the prior year. So that was just a little bit of color to help you understand the period that they're quoting there.

Yes. And so that's flowing through that negative 0.8% that's in that. That's not excluded?

It’s in that…

It's in that number.

Yes. And do you -- can you quantify it or it's too hard?

It's probably a bit hard to do that, but it's certainly a different profile to the prior year. I mean, the other thing to bear in mind is that the promotional campaigns for that particular window were obviously also different to last year as well.

Your next question comes from Sean Xu from CLSA.

First of all, well done on a great result. Congratulations. My first question is around KFC Australia EBITDA margin for FY '25. I think your previous guidance was saying expecting improvement in FY '25. But given the margin pressure you're facing at the moment, does that mean the previous guidance will be difficult to achieve? How do we think about this, please?

Yes. Thanks for your question. Look, I think we've been relatively imprecise with guidance because gazing into the future is often difficult. But what I would say about margins moving forward is that if you think about where the consumer is at the moment, the consumer is under a lot of pressure from a discretionary spending perspective. And in that environment, it is difficult to leave a price as a value creator. So we want to make sure that our products remain affordable and other brands protected longer term. And I think you've seen just from the comments that we've made about commodities that whilst we have a more favorable commodity environment than we had 6 months ago, there is still net inflation in commodities, despite the fact that some commodities are falling. So oil, for example, is lower, but other commodities remain in a net inflation position, albeit inflation rates are falling, and I would characterize commodities as stable. So, yes, I think I'll let you do your own maths on that. But clearly, it is very difficult to price in an environment like this. It wouldn't be in the interests of our customers and we want to make sure that we protect our brands for the longer term. So, yes, I guess what that means is some short-term headwinds.

Yes. That's very useful context. My second question is around your digital sales. So achieved a very -- quite significant growth for KFC Australia. You're sitting at 30% now. In Europe, that's about 60%. I'm just curious to know what sort of the realistic number you can grow for Australia and what sort of the margin implications associated with these, please?

It's Helen here. Yes, we're not going to share margins by channel, but I would highlight that the significant difference between the European and Australian numbers largely reflects the scale of the kiosk network. And we have highlighted in the presentation that that's something we're looking to expand in Australia. We also have a much heavier reliance on drive-thru, of course, in terms of our format in Australia, too. One thing I would say in terms of the acquisition of customers and the adoption of the digital channel, much of that has been driven by our own plans and campaigns, but also by consumer behavior, where they're realizing that being part of the app is the equivalent of being part of a loyalty program. And obviously, they get really great value offers through the app. So part of what you're seeing here is as consumers are feeling more challenged, they're finding ways to get better value from KFC.

Your next question comes from Tim Plumbe from UBS.

Can you hear me?

Yes. All good, Tim.

Great. Great. Just 2 questions from me, if possible. The first one, just in relation to chicken pricing and thinking about the input costs for chicken and obviously putting bird flu risk aside, how are you thinking about the outlook in terms of chicken pricing for the next 12 months? And I guess I'm just thinking about, if I remember correctly, you guys renegotiated contracts earlier to help out the chicken producers when things were a bit tough there. So how should -- how are you guys thinking about the next 12 months?

Yes, I'll jump in on this one. So, I mean, obviously, when prices are high, we tend to go short. When prices are low, we tend to go long. So I'll start with that and say that there's an opportunity for us to work with suppliers on some longer-term relationships right now. Commodities are in our favor. We've recently added a fourth chicken supplier to our supplier base and they're performing really well. And in addition to that, a couple of our long-standing chicken suppliers have also invested in additional capacity, which will be coming on board in the next few months. So net result of all of that is we're feeling quite comfortable about our outlook for chicken prices. But obviously, that's probably as much as I can share in this environment.

That's great.

Tim, just with respect to Europe, I know we tend to have a lot of focus on the Australian market, but with respect to Europe, I'd characterize commodities as probably even more favorable than they are in Australia at the moment, coming off extreme highs, I guess, post-COVID. So energy prices are lower. Some commodity prices are in deflation. Others were in moderate inflation but falling. So I think we have even -- an even more favorable environment in Europe, notwithstanding some of the consumer pressures that do impact us on sales. So, Hans, I don't know if there's anything else that you wanted to explain on that.

No, I think that's correct., Andrew. We've seen chicken come down to a reasonable level after we also faced bird flu pandemics in Europe. So that's going to be normalized over the next year probably. All the rest, I think it's also oil that's come down quite a lot. On the other hand, our wages have increased quite significantly over the past 2 years with about 20% in both territories. So this is something that will be continuing influencing our margins. But yes, on the commodities line, we're getting back on track.

And I guess we're fortunate in the -- the bird flu is only in the flocks bred for eggs. They're not in the flocks bred for chicken meat. So it's not in that category yet.

Yes. That's great. And just the other question. In relation to new builds, I think you mentioned 9 new builds in Australia. Is there a number that we can think of targeted in Europe? I think you said doubling in Netherlands. So that puts it at a minimum of 6%. But how should we think about the rollout in Germany?

Yes. So, Tim, I think, think about mid-single digits, probably where we're aiming for. I think you're aware of some of the challenges of developments in the Netherlands, in particular. The approval process is longer than we'd like and getting energy is a bit of a challenge. So if you think in the mid-single-digit range, you're probably not far off.

Got it. And just confirming, that's mid-single digits for Europe?

Yes.

Your next question comes from Ross Curran from Macquarie.

First, I just want to say how sorry I was to hear about Drew's wife. Our thoughts are with him and his family. And, Kevin, I want to thank you for stepping into role at short notice under difficult circumstances. Can I come back right from the start to Peter's question around M&A and just flesh that out a little bit? Perhaps, can we frame it around your experience as a master franchise operator in the Netherlands? And how that might have colored your views on M&A and potential for a master franchise structure in Australia, if you've had any conversations with Yum! around that?

Yes. So I'll take that one initially and then feel free to chip in, Kevin. Look, irrespective of the market structure, we like building restaurants when the returns on those restaurants are favorable. So whether that's a structure like the CFA or the DA structure that we enjoy in Australia, if a market is profitable and it has characteristics that are attractive, we're prepared to invest in it. So I wouldn't necessarily determine our desire to build based on market structure. I think we'll do that based upon the attractiveness of the market and the relative competition. So that's the way we're thinking about it. I think, I'd characterize our stance as a little bit more proactive than it previously was. Obviously, it's opportunistic in Australia. In Europe, we have probably a bit more of an intent to extend our footprint, given that we consider ourselves subscale. And all of that, we have to do with our partners, of course, and make sure the work that we are doing to build out our footprint aligns with their plans as well. So I think that's the way to think about M&A activity both in Australia and Europe.

Yes. And I think our master franchise agreement for Australia is probably a long, long way off, if ever. It is a market that Yum! does build and operate company stores to maintain some of their operational expertise and talent within the organization. So -- and it's a very important market for them. So I don't think that would be an option in the next 10 to 20 years. So I think the M&A opportunities in Australia is some of the franchisees probably ready to retire and when they are, we're ready to grab them. And in Europe, I think it's more targeted, as Andrew was just saying is we need to build scale in Europe and buying and building in the appropriate markets will accelerate that.

Sure. But Andrew, you've given yourself a lot of balance sheet flex today versus, say, 6 months ago. When we're thinking about the size of M&A, given you do have that balance sheet flexibility now, are we talking a handful of stores at a time or are we talking about something transformational?

No. Look, it depends on the structure of the market. There are certain markets where you have franchisees that may want to exit and there are a handful. There are other markets where you have franchisees that are running more developed networks. And I think it really just depends on the markets that we want to penetrate. So the structures are very different market by market.

But you're right. We have got the structure ready to go as we explore these opportunities.

Terrific.

When they come to [ fruition ], we'll let you know.

Your next question comes from Ben Gilbert from Jarden.

Just the first one for me. Just -- I don't want to get too sort of short-term week to week, but you've obviously put a lot of sort of fixed price points sort of sub $10 out and probably stepped up promotional intensity as is McDonald's over the last couple of months. And anecdotally, just keen on if you're seeing consumers respond to that, like do you feel that we're starting to see a bit more life coming back to QSR? You're getting your value positioning right in market and shares starting to lift again because it seems like there's been quite a good consumer response over the last couple of months?

Ben, is your question specific to Australia or both markets?

Yes, sorry, specifically to Australia, but, yes, interested in Germany as well.

I mean, certainly, in Australia, I would say consumer behavior is constantly changing and quite challenging to predict. So what we tend to see is that our promotional campaigns are performing very well. But what we also see at times is that it's causing some trade down from our existing consumers into those promotions. And whilst we seek to offer everyday great value for consumers through our core menu prices, we do need to be careful that we're not sort of throwing their behavior around too much promotional campaigns. So we've got a really strong plan for the year ahead and it's really focused on that core principle of everyday value where we remain one of the most affordable QSR players in the market, combined with great value promotions to obviously bring new customers in and also innovation, which we're seeing is increasingly appealing to consumers in the current environment. So you'll see more of that coming through in our plans too.

Does that answer your question, Ben?

Yes, that does. So, does it feel like -- so it sounds like it's still quite volatile week to week depending on whether the promotions hit and if people are trading down. And the focus is just around consistent innovating across category and trying to upsell [ where you can ].

Yes. Ben, look, the consumer is definitely under pressure and -- there is volatility week to week, but the consumer is under pressure. Whichever macroeconomic statistics you look at, I think that's confirmed. And I think consumers are looking to secure value, whatever their purchase is, and that applies to QSR.

I think one of the opportunities we're exploiting too is that the KFC has an advantage in abundance value. Working class families have been hit, and we think we can put together packages where you can feed a lot of food to a family in an abundant manner where it's not that much expensive per person, feed the kids and stuff. So I think it's much harder for our competitors to play in that market and we'll be exploiting that a little bit more, I think. But it is one of our distinct advantages. But generally speaking, you could say that transactions are stabilizing but people are spending less.

That's really helpful. And just a second one for me, if I could, just around relationship with Yum!. Obviously, it's very strong. You've got good global relationships, but they control the pricing, obviously, in consultation with yourselves and any other partners in Australia. How much visibility does that give you around your gross margins? Like, they're obviously up about 30 basis points for this period. But does it take a lot of that volatility and risk around discounting because Yum! can step into support and really the big focus for you is more around C2B. I'm just trying to understand the visibility you've got around your gross margins and pricing for the next 6 to 12 months.

Yes, look, Ben, I think we probably get better visibility than that if we didn't have that support from Yum!. So they do share how inputs are moving, they do share the pricing environment that we're operating in, how customers are feeling and we obviously have those conversations in collaboration with them around how we should react to that. So yes, we do get reasonable visibility, probably visibility that I can't share on this call. But yes, I think it's fair to say that we do get good visibility in how that may impact margins. Clearly, it's uncertain the way consumers react to, as Helen pointed out, changes from period to period, particularly when things are tight. So yes, we get good insights, but it allows us to have a view into the future. But as Helen pointed out, it is quite difficult to predict how margins will move.

[ I promise we get there ].

Your next question comes from Sam Teeger from Citi.

Just a question on the new small format in the Netherlands. How many of the openings you're planning in '25 will be in this smaller format? And how do the key metrics, such as CapEx, sales per store and margins compared to an average store?

Hans, you're up.

Yes. Well, I think it still is a low number of those new store openings in the Netherlands. It's a trial. I think it's showing signs of success. Building costs are obviously a little bit lower, but not very much. I think it's more the operating costs of those stores that make a difference. So we're still testing in cooperation with Yum!. So I'm not sure we're going to open one in the, like, say, next year, but I think we can say that it is a successful model for the future as we struggle to get bigger trade zones get to life in the Netherlands. So for smaller trade zones, this might be a good solution for the future.

Sure. And just while we're on Europe, can you please help us understand how the outlook has changed for you to book the $2 million impairment? I'm conscious that despite the company increasing its longer-term revenue growth assumptions do you see any impairment testing this year? The orders still wanted an impairment, which suggests there's not a lot of headroom between the carrying value and recoverable value going forward.

Yes. Sam, I can take that one. Yes. So, look, we test at an individual restaurant level for impairment. So it's a fairly punitive test. And there is 1 restaurant that was operating in the Netherlands, now has a lot more competition around it than it previously had. And the cash flows that come from that restaurant, once we discount them, we thought it was appropriate to impair that restaurant. So it's a very isolated issue. It's certainly not indicative of conditions in the Netherlands, more generally, specific conditions that relate to 1 particular restaurant.

Okay. And then just kind of just finishing off with, you've touched it a little bit, but maybe just we can flesh it out a bit more. One more strategic question. Thinking about how you're going to go into '25, given the consumer is still under a lot of pressure, as you mentioned, is now the time to use your scale, invest a lot harder into price and cause some pain to and take some share from your smaller competitors so longer term, the competitive landscape is a lot more favorable?

Sorry. Just confirming, your question relates to taking price to take share from smaller competitors.

No. Invest in -- use your scale, invest harder into price, which then translates to taking share from some of your smaller competitors.

Yes, look, it's a good question. I mean, we always try and maintain that balance between being affordable for consumers and having an offer that resonates. And I think you can see in our strength in holding and gaining share across Australia and Europe that we are leveraging our scale to enable that position at this stage.

Yes, but we don't want to get in a price war and race to the bottom either.

Yes.

All right.

Does that answer your question, Sam? Are you not going to ask any questions about our outstanding cash flow performance?

I'll leave that to someone else. I've hit my quota of 3.

Your next question comes from James Ferrier from Wilsons Advisory.

Firstly, well done on your outstanding cash flow performance. I probably should get that in there.

Thank you, James.

Thank you, James.

First question is around FY '25 margin comments. So, noting the change from 6 months ago where you were expecting improvement into FY '25 versus today expecting that margin pressure to persist, you commented earlier that price increases are unlikely in the current consumer environment. But has there been any change in your view for cost lines like labor, et cetera, going into FY '25, again, relative to your expectations 6 months ago? And perhaps if we could get a comment on both Australia and Europe, please?

In relation to Australia, the cost base of our business is pretty much in line with what we expected. You will have seen the minimum wage increase come out that was broadly in line with what we expected. And from a commodity perspective, we have a very detailed and comprehensive model and the vast majority of our commodity prices are in line with what we expected as well. The real volatility in margins is coming from the top line, as you would have seen in our first 7 weeks performance where the consumer environment is increasingly challenged. And whilst we're holding share, the entire category is challenged right now. And that's what's causing the compression.

Yes. And James, I think similar conditions in Europe, albeit the commodity environment is definitely more favorable in that market. Yes, I think we're probably seeing a more sustained level of pressure on consumer spending than we probably conversed on 6 months ago. So that is lasting longer. I think there was probably an expectation that we might get some relief through things like interest rates, which has clearly slipped back towards the back end of the year. So the consumer is under pressure. They've been under pressure for longer than we had expected. And as Helen pointed out, that's really more of a top line issue than it is about cost inputs.

Yes. Okay. And, Andrew, to confirm when you talk about KFC Europe being relatively more favorable on commodities, are you comparing that to the view that management had 6 months ago or are you comparing that to KFC Australia?

Yes. Well, arguably, it's a little bit of both. I mean, I think we definitely have seen some favorable movements in commodities relative to where they were. And I think if you think about commodities in Australia, they are stable, whereas we're seeing some deflation in Europe. So it's probably slightly more favorable. But then you have, as Hans pointed out earlier, in some of the other inputs, like labor, which is obviously a very large line for us, we've endured a 20% increase over 2 years on minimum wages in the Netherlands, for example. So yes, puts and takes, I guess, is probably the best way to describe it. But, yes, we've had better movement in cost of sales and clearly, we've had unfavorable movements in labor.

Yes. Understood. On the M&A front, perhaps taking a slightly different tact here, you've got a master franchise in place now, not Collins, but there is a separate -- a different master franchisee in place in Germany and that's been in place now for a little while. I'm just wondering how your thoughts have evolved around opportunities to reconsider new store openings alongside that master franchisee and just how that dynamic is evolving.

Yes. So I think I may invite Hans in a second, but I think it is taking some time for plans to form, I guess, in Germany in terms of how that market is going to be operated by the master franchise partner. And we're continuing to work with that partner in terms of development opportunities for that market. But I think -- look, I think it's fair to say it is taking longer for plans to solidify. And really that -- until that happens, it's very difficult for us to determine exactly how we will participate in the development of that market. We still really like the market. It's a really attractive market from a fundamentals perspective. But I think it's going to take us some time to understand the role that we play in collaboration with the partner. I don't know if there's anything else, Hans, that you wanted to add.

No, I don't think so. Bottom line is [indiscernible] needs to build restaurants and needs partners to build with them. So at some point, probably there will be more opportunity for us as well to see that as stable.

So nothing has changed in terms of our appetite for the market, I guess. But probably fair to say that it's taking longer for us to establish exactly how we're going to play within that market.

Yes. Understood, Andrew. Just one last one, if I can sneak it in while you've got the floor to, Andrew, maybe just your expectations for FY '25 around some of the line items like D&A, CapEx, interest expense.

Yes. So, I think with this release, I think we've probably given the market a little bit more color on interest. Interest is a big -- obviously a big line within the P&L, given that we now have lease interest running through that caption as well. And I think hopefully our release has given the market a bit more clarity on what lease interest looks like and what bank interest looks like. G&A, look, we have invested in G&A for a couple of reasons. We thought we were a little underweight in terms of some capability that we wanted to inject into our -- particularly our support structure. And of course, we've put resources into our European business in anticipation of scaling that market. So most of those investments are now made and we can continue to leverage those investments moving forward with scale. The other line that you mentioned was...

CapEx and D&A.

Yes. So, CapEx -- look, D&A is a function of, obviously, leases and the CapEx that we invest. CapEx has been relatively stable. I expect it to be relatively stable into the coming year. We have seen some inflation in construction costs. Obviously, that's been a feature of life in Australia for a little while now since COVID. But overall, our CapEx, I expect, will be within a similar band to the last couple of years, possibly a little higher. It's really driven by the number of remodels that we initiate in both Australia and Europe. Clearly coupled with the new builds that we put in place and I think we've given some guidance on that.

Yes. Understood.

Your next question comes from James Bales from Morgan Stanley.

So I'd just like to understand a little bit about the plans on leadership succession. Can you maybe update us on progress there, what the plans are, what sort of characteristics or background you're looking for in the next leader for Collins?

It's a good question. The Board is actively going -- starting the process now that we've got finality on what Drew's intentions were, because we always assumed he would come back but unfortunately he can't. So they're going to do both an internal search where we've got a couple of good candidates, as well as explore what's out in Australia and globally. I could probably get, obviously, experienced leadership, understanding strategic plans, good leader, a balance of probably operating experience as well as strategic experience. I don't know where else to go on that. That is a tough question. But they'll do -- given the major responsibility as the Board is to hire and fire the CEO. So they're going to do a pretty thorough search and we've got a good team working on it and they'll use outside advisors. I think applications have started flowing in already from different interested people. But undoubtedly, obviously, if the decision is an outside candidate that will probably be currently employed, which means you might be stuck with me for a few months longer than we would all like [ perhaps ]. But that's kind of where it's at, just a normal search process and that will be very thorough.

Okay.

[indiscernible] we have a very capable [indiscernible].

We've got a very capable team involved here. So my life is pretty easy, really.

Perfect. And then maybe just one other one. It seems like the messaging on Taco Bell was a little more open to future deploying of capital into that brand. Can you maybe help us understand what hurdles you have to achieve, especially in markets where like Victoria, where you said that it's gone much better than average, in order to put the next dollar of capital to work?

Yes. I think we're working closely with Taco Bell International, both at the Irvine level, the head office level, as well as in the regional level. And we're working on maybe a more closer partnership to try and develop the brand here. We're not ready to say go yet, and I'm not going to announce what those particular milestones are. But we think when we reach a certain level where we have much more confidence in the brand itself, that we will start to open up to build stores again. We're not at that point yet, but we're very confident we'll be able to get it there.

Your next question comes from [ Natasha Wensley from Paradice ].

So you've noted both an increase in the price of chicken and also an increase in the demand, especially in the Netherlands for vegetarian products. These 2 trends seem to coincide to suggest your menus, at least in Europe, should have more vegetarian options. So say, for argument's sake, you entertain a vegetarian-based menu in the future, would you anticipate this posing any risk to your brand image being one built on fried chicken?

You might have to just repeat the first part of the question. I was just trying to work out what the implication of the first part of your question was. Could you -- can you just repeat that?

Well, possibly just the reason why you would then go forth with the vegetarian-based menu would be that there's an increase in the price of chicken and also the people in Netherlands, you've known to demand this vegetarian offering.

Okay. I'll invite Hans in a second. So we haven't introduced vegetarian options because of the economics of chicken. We've -- in that market, I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of flexitarians who want choice and want to have access to broader options on the menu and we provided them. But it isn't driven by chicken pricing in any way, shape or form. It's more about providing choice. Hans, you might just want to make some comments on vegetarian options in the Netherlands and consumer preferences.

Yes. I think it's fair to say that the vegetarian options are, well, increasingly important for consumers. So we are always looking at more options going forward. We're actively looking at more varieties on our vegetarian layer right now. So, yes, we are exploring more options. We are following, of course, the consumer trends and also competition on that.

I think it's fair to say as well, though, that we still -- the mix of vegetarian products relative to our core menu is still relatively low. So it's a choice that's available, but it doesn't dominate the mix in any way.

But it is important for the brand as we represent it.

Yes.

Yes. Sometimes those sort of products help in the veto vote. If there's one person that is a vegetarian, then they say, well, there's nothing for me to eat there, so they don't -- the group doesn't go. So it does help a lot in that category.

Correct.

But it's never been a mainstream product for us to be able to sell it. So that's it. Well, thank you very much for the quality of the questions this morning. Thank you very much for your support and thank the shareholders for their support over the last year. And we look forward to meeting many of you over the next few days. Thank you.

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.