Commerzbank AG (CBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you very much, and good afternoon. I'm absolutely delighted to be joined by Manfred Knof, the CEO of Commerzbank for our next fireside chat. Welcome.

Yes. Welcome, and thanks for the invitation.

Absolutely, absolutely. We will start with the polling question, will at least kind of get it on. So the question is what will be the most important driver for share price over the next 12 to 24 months? We will have 10 seconds to answer that, please. No, this was our bad we kind of thought it was just a matter of how big the number is going to be. Okay. So Manfred, let's start first with your thoughts on the kind of current global backdrop, given the events in the U.S., let's first kind of address how you see the impact on the industry potentially Commerzbank?

Yes. I think it's a totally different story here in Europe and especially also for Commerzbank. I think situation is not comparable to what we've seen in the U.S. That was clearly a bank run issue. And here, what we're seeing here is not comparable. I think in the first place, we have highly diversified deposits that to the large extent, I think in the entire industry in short, not dependent on one or 2 big clients. So spread over all retail clients, a huge number of small, medium enterprises. So that's all good. Tend to be very sticky anyhow, even in turbulent times, some customers are good savers and sticky to their deposits. Deposits are modeled. And on the one portfolio, they're hedged. So no surprises on that either going forward. And so therefore, the situation is not comparable. And I can tell you the regulator is tough on us, watching closely, how liquidity is going. So they're doing a great job looking that liquidity is not an issue. So all in all, I would say, this time, we are on a good side of the situation here in Europe with the regulator and European banking model. So I don't think there's any kind of comparability.

Okay. Well, thank you very much for that. So let's move on to Commerzbank. Of course, let's kind of talk about kind of strategy first. Because, of course, your strategic restructuring is pretty much kind of halfway. Progress has been commendable. Of course, back to significant profitability. But a couple of questions really kind of top-down. When you think about the last, let's just say, in 2 years, what are the kind of key restructuring milestones that you kind of remember as the most important on your kind of on your way? And could you kind of tell us about your priorities for '23, '24 as you kind of see they are important?

Yes. So let's see what we've done in the last 2.5 years, time has flown by very fast. But I think whenever you do something, you have to go after the big restructuring as quickly as possible and as big enough. So we put out an enormous number of staff reduction, 10,000 people gross, meaning that every third employee in Germany, we had to say goodbye. And honestly, this is really a tough thing when you have to do it. But I mean, we clearly wanted to get this done quickly and out of the way as quickly as possible. And for the experts in German labor law, you know that's not an easy one. You need to negotiate that with your constituencies, with employee representatives and the unions. And so when I said I want to have this quickly done. So the experts are coming to me and say, yes, Manfred 4 years, 5 years. And I said are you gone crazy, this is internally not possible. So we wanted to do this in 2 years, but for German standard is really fast. So started in January. And I said in May at the general assembly, we first needed to have framework done negotiated. And then you need for each segment, the situation. And then what we did every employee had to apply for the new job. And this all needs to be implemented in the systems. And we luckily can report this has been accomplished by the end of last year. Yes, we put money aside. And so now we are clear with that, and now we can go forward. So that does not mean that cost is not an issue anymore. I think we're living in the times of inflation. And I see a lot of the younger managers who have never experienced inflation. So there are couple of rules of the game are really important to fight inflation internally. That means cost discipline needs to stay. And it's now a different situation. I mean, you cannot go for the next reduction program, but you want to be disciplined on cost. That means I think every unit needs to get the productivity increases. That's what I'm expecting for my team. Each individual team needs to get efficiency increases. Secondly, we are a very complex bank in the product side and also in the IT system. So we need to attack complexity and when you go on the automation and digitization of the processes, you need to work hard on that. I mean we have reduced the branches from 1,000 to 400 also in 2 years. And -- now you need to get the digitization of the processes ready to go on. So for the second half, there's a lot to go with regard to processes, complexity reduction, ease of doing business with our customer. We clearly put the focus on customer journeys and making life for the customer easier and also to grow the business because yes, you need to stay disciplined on cost, but also the revenues need to kick in.

Yes. No, no, absolutely, absolutely. And so let's kind of go back to NII. Of course, it was a big winner from our polling question. So just a couple of things there. So you got your guidance out that 6.9 to 7.1. There's a lot of moving parts, of course, to it, and the interest rate side, the deposit beta mix shift kind of loan pricing, all of that. How do you see that guidance from a perspective of where the interest rates kind of are today? What the forwards are pricing in? This is -- the markets have taken this as a very, very comfortable guidance. So I suppose what I'm asking about is let's talk about moving parts which can kind of get us either to the top of that guidance or further out.

Okay. Yes. I know we got a lot of questions on that even when we presented that guidance. I think they're coming out of a base scenario from EUR 6.5 billion. And then -- that was [indiscernible] in the quarter and then let's see where the rates are going. And they said, okay, if the 3% rates going accordingly with the 7.1 and we thought that, that is a good one. But then they are always getting the question, what is this more is to come? But the thing is, yes, it's a little bit on the conservative side. But Bettina and myself decided, okay, you know what's not -- what's going to happen? You see what's going to happen now. So I mean, it's absolutely our priority is that we keep our promises. So we don't want to shoot out any unrealistic number on building fantasy things into the room. So the 3% according versus 7.1, if that's going above, then we get some more headwinds, then it's nice to happen, what we will see. On the other hand, we have the deposit model, so slice-by-slice jumping into the model going forward. So there is a time lag that is supporting. But I think let's stay with this in the first place, and we are living in volatile times. So that's a good way to start.

Okay. How do you see the deposit pricing, I think, overall. We are -- we wouldn't have any conversation without, of course, a mentioning of the deposit betas and what you see particularly if you look at your kind of unencumbered deposits in retail and on the corporate side?

Yes. I mean we are working for this year with the assumption of a deposit beta of 30% and that means it's more on the corporate side and less on the retail. So overall, now we are closing to with 12 to 15 right now. So we feel also comfortable with the 30% and honestly, we do not see that this could be wrong at the moment. So I mean, overall, all the large banks are pretty much in the -- in the same ballpark. We're paying 40% Commerzbank 50% -- 40 basis points that commerzbank 50 basis points at Comdirect and that's pretty much in the ballpark of the all banks. I mean the deposits are an important funding instrument for the credit business, and that's how the model works. I think it's for all banks of the segment in the same direction. So yes, we -- there is a potential for more beta going up. But I think with the 30% for this year, we are pretty comfortable with the planning assumptions and then let's go and see. But Germany is pretty sticky with the deposits. They're not moving. We probably see now inflows into deposits coming out right now because there will be a flight to quality, and we will benefit from them. So either we probably expect more inflows in the deposits to come. So -- and Germans are pretty conservative. They're still savers, they're putting the money in the deposits, and therefore, I'm expecting stable and sticky deposits and also with a better assumption, we should do okay.

Perfect. And I know it's not probably not on top of kind of minds. But last year, you did kind of see a relatively decent growth in the -- in the kind of corporate lending side, commercial lending side. Could you talk to us about your kind of front book pricing? So are you able when you actually -- when you kind of look at the new production to actually kind of pass through both the rates and I suppose, kind of credit spreads? And also, what can kind of you also versus the market behavior?

I mean, as I said, I mean, living in inflation times, pricing is an important tool, and that's what I'm expecting from all my sales teams that we're working on that. We clearly put out the targets that RWA efficiency is the name of the game. So we're working very hard to go over the 3% for the largest part of the portfolio and working on that. So we're going list by list, name by name and going then for either cross-selling or bringing the margins up. And in this environment, this is crucial and important also with regard to our profitability. I can tell you we're very disciplined in that and working very hard on that. So I think there's always room to improve and to do better. And I think now we have all this kind of internal DNA installed that to the last corner in Germany, all the guys understood what needs to be done and what is necessary to go for. And so therefore, I'm feeling very comfortable with the development and also with a pricing discipline.

Perfect. Perfect. And let's talk a little bit about volumes because, of course, when we look at originations, particularly on the consumer side, on the mortgage side, that has rolled off quite dramatically. And -- but still when it came to the kind of the commercial side kind of kept up pretty much until late last year. And of course, we had the conversation on the calls about kind of working capital loans, all of that. When you speak to kind of the -- your corporate clients today in Germany, what -- how does your pipeline look like? How do you think about that kind of lending portfolio developing? And of course, kind of maybe also what's the mood? What are you getting back? As you said, uncertain times but probably better than we would have expected last year.

Yes. Let me answer that in 2 parts. I mean quickly on the retail side, and then I will dig more into the corporate. On the retail side, it's true that for the mortgage business, it's less, yes. We see a new business down but the good thing is that the structure of the German mortgage book is very out on the long fixed term. So it's only 15th or 16th of year-by-year, which is coming into play. So we can live with a year of less new business because the book of business is totally stable. And -- so things they all have to pay the mortgage down whenever it comes up for renewal, it's still handleable and there isn't any issue because the book is totally stable. So no defaults, it's stable. And we can live with a year of less new business. I still believe that in the second half, of this year, there will be more activity coming in mortgages also because what we see right now is that buyers and sellers are not coming to terms right now, right? So the sellers still need to adjust their pricing and need to understand that 10% or 20% less of the hike -- price hikes is more reasonable right now. So they need to get adjusted to that. And the sellers also need to understand that 3% to 4% is a new normal in pricing. I mean, okay, if you're living for the last decade where we're seeing was below 1%. So it's a different situation. But if you think we are in the long run, I think we should feel very comfortable with the 3% to 4%, and that probably is the new normal going forward. So if that's accepted from both parties, the new rates and also the pricing situation, then I'm expecting mortgages in the second half of the year develop. So that's pretty much on the retail side. On the corporate side, situation is pretty stable in -- it's stable and flat in the beginning of the year. And I think what's happening here is they all now look what was going to happen to China? What's going to the supply chain, what's happening to the energy prices? We make it over the summer, where to invest. So the situation was everywhere. I was looking a little bit around what's going to happen and where should we invest, what's the situation right now? What's the situation with Ukraine? But in the long run, I'm totally bullish on the credit demand and loan demand for the corporates because what we have here is the biggest transformation ever since second world war. I mean this green transformation, it's not millions. We're not talking billions. We're talking trillions here. So and this needs to be and especially in Germany, will be, to a large extent, financed by the credit side. I mean, of course, we should and will have also input from private money from the capital market that needs to be adjusted, but the large part is then financed by credit. And all our partners, our customers need to demonstrate their path to the -- to become net zero. And this is such a huge project that I'm totally bullish on the loan demand on the corporate side going forward. And therefore, all the banks and especially Commerzbank is ready to help and to be at the side of our customers. So therefore, in the medium term, I'm very optimistic on loan demand due to this green transformation, which is enormous.

Of course, of course. Let's kind of look -- and take this conversation in a slightly different direction. On the asset quality front because I think that a lot has been changed since last year. Last year, we -- at one stage, we were looking at a very significant kind of energy, kind of from energy-driven potential kind of downturn to the German industry that did not pan out like this. Of course, we were talking about recession. Again, this has not pan out like this. And how do you think about the kind of the -- the 2 sides to the asset quality? One, as we just kind of -- as we've just discussed, the -- there is a new normal in terms of credit pricing from an interest level perspective. But from another perspective, we're kind of -- we are looking through a little bit of a slowdown kind of currently. Do you see any signs of kind of any credit stress within your portfolio?

No, not at all. And basically, in the last autumn, basically, I always said, I have a lot of confidence in the German economy, especially in -- yes, in adaptability and the strength of the German corporates, especially the small medium enterprises and that very fast to the new situation to the supply chains and new trade corridors. So they're very active on that. Honestly, we didn't see anything on the risk side. It still is the case. Then we have some people putting out the doomsday scenario for the winter. But honestly, we have to say the government has done a good job. So it's a combination of a mild winter with enough energy supply helped us through the winter. So -- and therefore, I see a more positive atmosphere and outlook from the German corporates now in March than what the situation was in last winter. So on the asset quality side, it looks okay. And we, as a bank, we feel very comfortable with our position. We have a clear guidance below EUR 900 million, then you know that we have a buffer, which puts us in a very comfortable position in relative terms. I think we can live with that very, very well. Yes, and then we will see how it's going forward. It's clearly that the price of energy going forward is important for the German economy, and this will be an issue going forward but I think everybody is working hard on that. And so far, we've come out better than everybody expected. So I'm quite optimistic for finding a solution here. Of course, we need to diversify. We need to get all alternatives on energy ready. We need to pull all opportunities here, but there is no reason to look. So the glass is definitely half full and not half empty. As I already said last autumn.

Yes, fair enough. Perfect. Let's talk about capital and capital returns because we've got the CET1 ratio target of 14%. We, of course, heard you announcing the dividend and the buyback. Of course, have just the regulatory kind of approvals, and we're now kind of dealing with a 50% payout on the -- on the [ DB ] side. But however, you want to look at those numbers and the -- what the market kind of expects you to generate, let's just say, over the next 2 years in terms of profits. It is -- well, first, just talk about the target. The 14% seems like a kind of very conservative target. Could you tell us how kind of your thought process to arrive at that number?

Yes. I mean, first of all, we will put out a capital return policy out, which needs to pass the regulator also the Supervisory Board. We get everybody on board on that. And I think it's good because it lays out the framework. So everybody knows what is possible and what we're going to do. So I'm very happy that this year, we are coming back to what shareholders really and investors really deserve. So we're happy to come back with -- it is a start now, and we need to get used to it. We need to apply. I mean -- and they're coming back with a 30% payout ratio, 2/3 in dividends and 1/3 in share buybacks because a lot of investors said dividend is nice, but shared bought would be also. So we listen and we put this out and with the 30%, it's also something everybody feels comfortable. Also the regulators said, okay, Commerzbank is coming back. And so now it's up for approval. It will take some time. But even if you have turbulent times, there's no reason, no sign or anything, I expect that things will pass through. And so therefore, this is a good start. So for next year, we said we want to then do more, and we put out the 50%, which I think is according with a 14% going in the right direction. For us, it's important that we are coming back to -- to stable and to a regular process. So what we want to do is that shareholders really get used and can really be sure that we are on a continuous path here. And therefore, we are starting with a 30% and then going with the 50% is the right thing. And nobody knows what then looking out into the future will come. And anyhow, we need to discuss this with all constituencies. So let's get the 30% out now, then the 50% and then see what's happening. But you can be assured that clearly our goal to be in a continuous process here and making sure that this is not a onetime off. It's a continuum. We want to work. And therefore, I think it's going in the right direction.

Absolutely. And maybe just to kind of just to finish the kind of the broad capital question. How should we think about those created assets kind of development from here, both from a perspective of business and potentially regulatory side? Because you did mention that, of course, one of the big things for you is just create asset efficiency from the perspective of the commercial result, you're expecting from the business. So is there -- we've talked during the conference about kind of the regulatory inflation, whether it's the model reviews, whether, of course, it's the incoming Basel IV. What's left for you?

I mean, we are fully under the regime, I think we can -- we will work with it. And therefore, all our planning is baked in and built in the model. I mean you can best see it with the RWAs. And then we have a model implication, then okay, we need to build in something. But going forward, I mean we are here in a very stable environment. I think, rightfully so everybody is making sure that the things are stable. So therefore, you can -- we don't expect any surprises. We are stable with regard to the regulators towards our capital requirements. And therefore, we are getting in a normalized stable process. So I'm expecting not significant lengthy changes and going on. And so therefore, yes, it's not an easy environment to handle. But I think on the good side, it's stable and you can plan and you know what to expect.

Perfect. I've got a lot more questions to go through, but let me just have a look at the audience, whether there's any questions on anybody's mind? Okay. I'll come back. I'll come back. So it's -- so let's talk about the cost management from here. When we talked about milestones. Of course, we talk about people, we talked about branches and the need for automation for digitalization. Of course, you do have a cost-income ratio target for 2020 fold at 60%. When you think about your costs from here, taking all those milestones into account, what's on your mind in terms of where do you see potential kind of tailwinds to versus the headwinds? Of course, we've got the inflation kind of coming through pretty much across the entire kind of cost stack. Where do you see the efficiencies? How do you think about kind of managing that cost base in that final part of the transformation?

So I think -- for me, as a CEO for me and for Bettina, as a CFO, it's important that it's absolutely clear that cost discipline will continue because you could say now the restructuring is done and off you go, but that's not possible. We need to -- I mean on the profitability, we still have a way to go. I mean, I think we're very happy that we are on good track to deliver the 60% in '24, and we said the 7.3% on the return on tangible, let's be clear, this is not the end of the game. So -- then going forward, we need to do more and then we need to work harder. So it's clearly that we need to stay disciplined on the cost side. It's true that there are inflationary topics something to get in on the website, clearly. So therefore, you need to comprehend that either by efficiency gains in your own processes. We're starting a huge project on complexity reduction, working on the IT getting all legacy systems under control and shutting it off, but it's a project for a decade. You need to -- but you need to work on that. And of course, there's now the opportunity to do more on the customer side. You get cross-sell to build on the customer base and to take the opportunities of the green transformation and private clients. We want to do more in wealth management and private banking. And given the structure of our revenues, I mean, yes, we need more on the provision side than fee income even if some volatile markets. But going forward from the structured -- from the structural distribution of our revenues, we want to see more from the fee side. That is also good because of the capital situation. So going forward, for the next part of the strategy, this is the way to go. And it's a combination of both, and that's where everybody is on board now here.

Perfect. So let's continue on the fee side because we've mentioned kind of, cross-sell a couple of times. You've got -- you kind of -- you have started your advisory centers are ahead of plan, some of your -- and of course, with that also comes the fantastic business you've got with Comdirect as well on the retail brokerage side. You talked about flat fees in 2023. Could you help us kind of to -- kind of to see how kind of various key streams you think are likely to progress through the year?

Well...

I know it's a bit of a crystal ball.

The world is so volatile that I think we were saying that we are expecting this flat. I mean, during the corona and last year's fee business was really going up and capital markets for us. PD's business also largely depends on the development of the [indiscernible] because the prices we are charging closely related to where the DAX is. So volatility there means that the provision income varies but we also want to ask and go for new business. I mean, we had a pretty good start of the year. So customers are really happy with how we are doing. And we are also seeing nice inflows. But I mean the overall fee situation in the private bank really depends on the volatility of the markets. I mean, if there's a lot of change volatility is up. I mean the Comdirect guys are benefiting from that. That's also clear, but it's difficult to look going forward. What I can say is that all lines of business, we are expecting the internal growth business, more customers, more volume, more share of wallet, and that's what we're going in the private bank and on the wealth management side, but also on Comdirect. So that's okay. But I'm also asking also more on the corporate bank for the fee side. So here, we see what we can do more in fee business, had a pretty good start of the year on the bond business. I mean we are positioning ourselves very well as in the bond business, even the green bonds, sustainability bonds. We've done the first for the German government ever, and then we continue to do so. So we are -- and we want to be seen also as a bank, which supports the green transformation. And therefore, we have our center of competence for green energy and supporting here and the bonds are highly asked for. And we had a pretty strong and good start of the year. So it's all going in the right direction. And so far, we are optimistic, but I mean, we cannot compensate the volatility of the markets going forward and it's hard to see where we're going at the end of the year. But in general, I'm profitable because the underlying business and the underlying customer business is going in the right direction and gives us a strong support in our direction.

Absolutely. And then -- and let's talk about also the slightly different things. We've talked about milestones of the branch closures. You've also -- those international location exits on the corporate client side, also kind of happened ahead of the plan, like both things gone ahead of the plan. And I remember when kind of right in the beginning, you did talk about the potential for the revenue churn because of both. And we haven't really seen that coming through. Could you talk us through what kind of happened there? It would have been logical to expect but of course, it didn't...

Couple of -- couple of questions. So I think we remain cautious on the private side. I mean we're doing a lot to convince customers at the advisory centers and digital facility is an important way to go and a lot of customers are jumping on that. And actually, we needed to be faster with the advisory centers because we closed the branches faster. But I think if you have to do the tough things, speed is really critical, but that also means that you have to adjust your processes. So the toughest thing as a CEO in those kind of projects is always harmonization of the restructuring, getting the people of the balance sheet. And then ideally, you want to have all the processes right in play. Honestly, that never works perfectly. So I've done that now 3 or 4 times. I've never got 100%. So -- and it's also true here that we now need to continue to work on the digitization of the processes, on the automization and the customer journey. So -- but all in all, I'm happy and this goes in the right direction. So now you need to help me jump on again because I wanted to be on the second part, we were on the...

The second part...

Yes, we were on the churn, right? So on the private clients, the churn is never immediately happening. So we're working on getting them over on the digital side, but honestly, it takes over a time lag of 18 to 24 months. So I mean -- if you close a branch, I think we have now a representation of 400. And 400 is a pretty good way how you can cover the country, Germany. So that is the number also in other industry with 400, you cover Germany very well. So we heavily have more customers even on the big cities. So that's why we are heavy there and we are very well positioned and for the affluent business, private banking and wealth management in the big cities, I mean we are there. And this all works extremely well. So -- but if there is a churn on the country side in the smaller cities, you want to make sure that about in an hour, you're reaching the next branch if they need to go and now it's, I think, the biggest task to making sure that most of the processes can be also done digitally or by the phone. So I'm strongly believer of the hybrid customer. So it's not branch-only or digital only. It's a combination of everything. So for the easy things in daily banking, you want to go digital. Some people prefer, okay, I need to talk to somebody. That's why we have the advisory centers for easy service but also for video in and outbound is important. And then if it's really getting important, then we have the branches, and on the corporate side, it's not important anyhow because they're going on the customer side anyhow for a long time. So I think you need to have everything and the customer decides differently in what kind of situation he wants to use what. And therefore, the strength of Commerzbank is that we can play the distribution channels all over the place and built in hybrid model allows us to be ready for all kinds of situations and working with the customers. So that's why we feel very comfortable with this kind of distribution mix going forward.

Perfect. Perfect. Let me just check whether there's anything, any kind of questions in the audience? Okay. So one last thing we haven't talked about, and we probably have time to do so. It was mBank because, of course, there's the kind of the most recent news flow on the potential kind of on the European -- potential European Court of Justice opinion of the FX mortgages just again kind of potentially end up in a situation with the additional provisioning is kind of required. What is your view on the kind of where we're likely to end up? How would you -- and how you kind of envisage? What comes managing it?

Yes. I think the only thing what is clear in Poland is that uncertainty is there, and we don't know anything with regard to the final solution. It's a very political situation, and therefore, we don't believe that we will get a final decision before elections. So elections will be in autumn. So there will be not any kind of final outcome first. I think what we have done and what the management in Poland has done, they've built a model, which is approved also clearly by the auditors, helping if there are changes in settlement in claims and as so this will be adjusted. I think we have provisioned for 54% of the book, which accounts for EUR 1.4 billion, which seems to be a lot. But if there is more upward pressure, which then comes out of the model, we are capable to react. The good thing is that mBank is such a great bank operationally strong and highly profitable that they were capable of swallowing all the problems by themselves. And this is going forward a very good situation for us, but you never know how the things will come out. You touched upon the European Court of Justice. First of all, it's an opinion. There's a likelihood that this will also come out. But what I'm hearing right now from Poland, I mean, it looks like the European Court of Justice is even passing Poland on the right side. So now even the Polish guys gets scary about what does that mean to the Polish banking system. So if that would be the outcome of the European Court of Justice that needs to be transferred to the Polish situation. And I think now they're even getting nervous what does it mean to the Polish banking system. So let's see what's happening. This will also not come before the next autumn. That's why I think we all need to sit here and hang in and wait. We need -- we have the models in place. We -- we follow what's happening. We are able to react. I think mBank is strong enough to deal with the situation. And then we need to see what the outcome is. It can be everything. This is why this is unpredictable. But I think we have the models in place and the strong management team and a strong operational bank. And then we need to see what the outcome is, but I think before the elections and before autumn, we don't have a clear picture yet.

Yes. Okay. That would be tough to see. Manfred, when you kind of think about the more of a normalized situation for Commerzbank. Let's assume we kind of operate at a positive kind of interest rate environment over medium term, big shift for the bank's profitability overall. Of course, you've got your -- kind of your -- the cost side, still, as you've mentioned, very, very disciplined -- focus of the management also. What would be kind of a medium-term kind of tailwinds that you think you may be benefiting from versus something that may still concern you? More on a 3-year view outside of the target.

Yes. So we're jumping now from -- we are now jumping beyond this strategy 2024, what's coming next? I mean, clearly, I mean, in Commerzbank, and we've seen that in the polls, very sensitive to interest rates. I mean there was a problem in the times of negative. So I mean, now the business model is playing into our cards. I mean, that is clearly but it's not only because of the rates, it's because we've done our homework. We were disciplined and very fast in the transformation and restructuring. So you need to devote. But I mean, of course, let's see what's happening. But I mean, inflation is still the name of the game. So whatever happens on the short term, there will be pressure to -- for the rates going up that is clearly we will see in what sequence and whatever. But I mean, Commerzbank will benefit from this situation. That's absolutely clear. So I think we are clear on the positive side that will support our business. I also say that the green transformation is playing in our cards, and that will be one of the strengths of the German economy. So if we can pull that off, and we can be on the forefront, and we will be there where the customers are using and changing the trade corridors. That means we are internationally present, we can be at the site wherever the customer needs us to be, in Northern America, in Mexico, in Northern Africa. So we are all over where our customers are building production facilities and have the trade corridors. So we are the export bank. We are financing 1/3 of the entire German exports. So that is we are the bank to go for. And therefore, we were very strong and Germany will pull that off. Germany has a very adaptable and resilient economy. And therefore, I'm overly optimistic for this bank for the future. So this will go out in the right direction, and then we will make the next steps on profitability and one day hopefully, not so far on cost of capital. That's clearly the goal here.

Amazing. Well, thank you very much. And I think on that high note, Manfred, thank you very much for our fireside chat, and thank you for the audience to listening to us. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you.