Compagnie Générale des Établissements Michelin Société en commandite par actions (ML) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Michelin conference call. I now hand over to Mr. Florent Menegaux, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Yves Chapot, General Manager and Group CFO. Gentlemen, please go ahead.

Good evening, good afternoon and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us, Yves Chapot and myself, for 2025 results call. I would like to start by summarizing our 2030 Michelin in Motion strategy. What you see on your screen is The Group relies on 4 strong and clear distinctive assets. Our Michelin's way of managing based on empowerment, autonomy and responsibility. Our company's resilience comes from team cohesion and shared values. Number two, we have a strong and well-recognized brand. Our MICHELIN brand is now worth more than $10 billion, and it is the ninth strongest brand in the world across all categories, not only in tires. We capitalize on a powerful innovation with deep expertise in complex materials assembly. And finally, we sell best-in-class products and services with long-term value delivered to our customers. Our group operates, and that's in the middle of your screen in 2 complementary fields: Tires and Mobility on historic Core business and Polymer Composite Solutions in which our group is leveraging its material expertise acquired in tires and where we are accelerating our growth. In 2025, and that's the right of your screen. Our group achieved the following performance. An engagement rate at 84.4%, high and stable, close to our 2030 target of 85%. A segment operating income of EUR 2.9 billion at iso-FX. This is, of course, disappointing performance as we did not reach our initial 2025 guidance. I am sure, however, you have noticed that we have reached the upper part of our revised guidance. It shows that we were able to turn things around in the last quarter. Our free cash flow before M&A reached EUR 2.1 billion, reinforcing our financial strength and our ability to generate cash. Our renewable and recycled material rates stands at 32%, 1 point better than last year. The road ahead to our 2030 ambition is long, but we make strides. Regarding the shareholder return, we are proposing a stable EUR 1.38 per share dividend, which corresponds to a 57% payout ratio. Confident in our future, we intend to launch a new share buyback program of up to EUR 2 billion over the next 3 years, 2026-2028 period. Here, I would like to reemphasize to all of you that M&A is still a priority as we are deploying our Michelin in Motion 2030 strategy. Our structurally strong cash generation allows us to finance both CapEx, dividends and share buyback programs in a flexible way. Regarding our financial guidance for 2026, our ambition is to progress in terms of segment operating income at iso-scope iso-parity, which we want to make clear that our ambition is to progress at 2025 perimeter. On the cash side, we intend to generate at least EUR 1.6 billion in free cash flow before M&A. Now I would like to take a few minutes to come back on our Polymer Composite Solutions development. Aside from our Core business in Tires and Mobility, where our ambitions remain intact as being the world leader, we are determined to grow our PCS Polymer Composite Solutions businesses. By doing so, we will improve the resilience of our group and its profitability. Michelin's approach in PCS is based on 3 pillars: leveraging group R&D. Michelin leverages over 100 years of experience in developing the best tires. Our deep science in material and unrivaled ability to industrialize and produce at scale provide us with a unique opportunity to access several very attractive adjacent categories. We are building a diversified portfolio of independent businesses targeting Michelin critical applications. Within our group, we manage our Polymer Composites business with a specific operating model. We developed strong synergies in terms of R&D, and we operate in a much more decentralized way than in tires. The destination markets represent an addressable market of more than EUR 70 billion organized around 6 main product categories, as you can see on the bottom left of your screen. Since we acquired Fenner in 2019, we have grown at a CAGR of around 7% with a balanced mix of organic and external growth. And with the latest 3 acquisitions we have announced, we could reach pro forma 2025 sales of around EUR 1.7 billion with an operating margin of more than 15%. Our Polymer Composite Solutions business, including our recently announced acquisitions show a good balance, both in terms of market verticals and geographies, that's on the right, and market verticals are on the left. And what you can see is North America becomes our largest regions after the 3 latest acquisitions, and it will enable cross-selling synergies and contribute to the upcoming growth in PCS. Now I'll hand over to Yves for the rest of our presentation.

Thank you, Florent. So I'm going to lead you through our performance in our key performance indicators over regarding People, Profit and Planet. Regarding People, the group has shown very strong improvement in terms of safety. Our TRIR is now at 4 -- below 4.5 which is an improvement of 53 basis points versus 2024. And our Net Promoter Score with our partner customers has improved by 5.3 points versus '24. We are on track for both indicators on our 2030 ambitions. I will come back on the Profit more in detail afterwards. And regarding the Planet, versus 2019, we have already achieved 48% CO2 emission reductions versus 2019, which was nearly the objective we intend to reach by 2030. So we are far ahead, thanks to a lot of levers including purchasing of green electricity, but as well transiting from more carbon-intensive energy to less carbon-intensive energies. And last, I would like to comment the Abrasion performance. If you compare the set of offers of Michelin in 2025 versus 2020, in average, the performance of our Tires in Abrasion has improved by 8.4%, which translates in less material for the same usage, but as well as an improvement and competitive advantage in terms of total cost of ownership for our customers. It makes us the undisputed leader in this area. Now coming back more to the economic situation, I would like first to comment the market. The market has shown very contrasted pictures over the world and over the different segments. But overall, there were marginally soft versus 2024. Very tough in original equipment, particularly in B2B applications. If you look at regional equipment and if you set apart passenger car tire in China and truck and bus in Europe, all the markets were down versus 2024 with even minus 20% for the heavy-duty vehicles in North America. The replacement market if you look at the figures, seems to post a more positive picture, but in reality, we should not ignore that this trend was triggered by the inflow of Asian tires in anticipation of the tariff in North America and the antidumping measures that the European Union is intending to implement versus passenger car tires coming from China. So overall, at the end of the year, when we look at the inventory of our wholesalers, they are pretty heavy loaded with these tires and we estimate that it will take probably another semester to flesh out these tires from the distribution channel. On the other hand, when we look at our own inventory, they are at a quite healthy level in all channels of distribution. Regarding Specialties, Mining, Aircraft are posting positive growth. Beyond-road is still plagued by the regional equipment cycle and that we'll have the opportunity to come back on the situation of Beyond-road, particularly in OE. Replacement has shown some signs of recovery, particularly in Europe. And the Polymer Composite Solutions are posting low single-digit growth over the year. Regarding our sales, so 2025 has seen very strong headwinds, first one being the volumes. Our volumes were down by 4.7%, mostly driven by original equipment and I will have the opportunity to come back on that. The situation of volume has improved over the year. Volume in H1 were at minus 6.1%, in H2 at minus 3.4%. Price/mix is still positive over the year, 3%. The Non-Tire activity are contributing to 0.3%. So you have seen the weight of Polymer Composite Solutions, but this activity grew in itself by 3.4% during the year. And of course, we have been severely impacted by the currency effect, EUR 800 million, 3% of which half is coming from the U.S. dollar and 2/3 in the second half, 1/3 in the first half. Overall, our sales, including ForEx has decreased by 4.4% over the year. Now zooming on the volume. So volume decreased by 4.7%, so nearly 5% of which 80% is coming from our Regional Equipment businesses, half from the Truck Tire businesses with a strong drop, particularly in the North American, which is a very important market for us. And the rest is shared between Passenger Car and Agriculture, all across the regions. Passenger Car Tires have grown in China, but the market and our volumes have decreased in the other regions. Our overall replacement sales were posting a slight negative, so one point volume contribution overall. But with a very diverse situation between MICHELIN brand, which is growing across practically all the business segments and our Tier 2 and Tier 3 brand that has been probably more impacted by the inflows of budget tires, both in our North American and European core markets. Our operating margin. So the margin land at EUR 2.7 billion or 10.5%, including ForEx. I will start with the ForEx because half of this EUR 200 million is coming from the USD and 3/4 of the ForEx effect is coming in the second half of the year. Before the month of April, the USD tend to be more resilient versus the euro. But if you look across the full year, the euro has revaluated against nearly all currencies and particularly the USD. Volume is down by EUR 700 million, of which share between the margin effect and the lack of fixed cost absorption from our factory due to the very low level of factory loading. We have a very positive price/mix. We nearly hedge the volume effect. Raw material is negative for the full year, but has a positive effect on the second half, which was mostly concentrated on the last quarter. Manufacturing and low costs are as well negative, but impacted by EUR 235 million due to the tariffs, mostly in the second half. So if you take out this effect, our manufacturing cost -- in fact, our maturing performance have been improving despite a very low factory loading during the second half of the year. SG&A, which were slightly increasing at the end of the first half of the year, land EUR 5 million below 2024. And thanks to a strong reaction and around EUR 28 million improvement in savings during the second half. We have a positive contribution from Non-Tire business. And the other effects are mainly due to our group businesses. As in 2024, we have updated our businesses in November when in 2025, we did it in June with a last adjustment in December due to a better free cash flow performance than expected. Now looking at the picture by business segment. You see that our segments, the most impacted segment are SR2 and SR3 in terms of volumes. SR1 volume loss is mostly coming from original equipment in Europe and North America and our Tier 2 and Tier 3 brand. But the MICHELIN brand in SR1 has been very resilient and has grown over the year. The SR2 is suffering obviously from the 9% volume decrease that I have already detailed. And the SR3 has been impacted as well by a strong volume decrease, which as is during the second half of the year at the end of June, we were posting a 6.8% volume decrease in SR3 versus 3.1% for the full year. I would like now to come back on SR2 performance and our plan to recover and to come back to a healthier financial performance on this segment. Here, you will see on the right part of the slide, 2 charts: one which is showing you the market fluctuation within dark blue, original equipment; and in green, replacement for truck and bus tires over the past 10 years. So we know and it's particularly exacerbated for original equipment that this market is cyclical with roughly a market that can fluctuate around 30% below or above its average depending on the cycle. And you see below with the operating margin, the strong correlation between the operating margin and the cycles. So our strategy is consisting now in trying to desensitize our SR2 margin to this cyclicality. First, by rebalancing the respective weight of our original equipment and replacement volume, rightsizing our manufacturing capacity and it's all the effort that has been done by the teams in the past 2 years, improving our local to local sourcing, accelerating our product plan renewal, increasing the share of services through our Michelin Connected Fleet activity and re-emphasizing reaching the importance of retreading to extract the full value of the machine technology. And with all these levers, we believe that we can try to have a less exposure to these fluctuations in the years to come. Positive results in 2025 is coming from our cash flow generation. So despite a drop in EBITDA, we have been able to generate EUR 2.1 billion of free cash flow before acquisition. After acquisition, it's even better because we have made some disinvestments in 2025. Thanks to a huge effort in working capital despite some inflationary pressures coming from the North American tariff. We spent less in taxes and interest than in 2024. Our restructuring costs have increased versus 2024 by EUR 180 million. You see that our CapEx has slightly decreased as well, around EUR 100 million. And we have a very positive contribution from our Joint Venture and Associates and from our assets -- some asset disposals that we did, real estate in Euromaster or in China. Last, our ROCE has been impacted by a weaker segment operating income in 2025 despite EUR 550 million less capital employed in average in 2025 versus 2024. These cash generations -- thanks to this cash generation, it provides us some headroom to deploy our strategy, as Florent highlighted. But we have been able, in 2025 to further deleverage our balance sheet with gearing, which land at 13% at the end of the year. It gives us -- gives to the group the flexibility to finance both the growth of its Polymer Composite Solutions and to increase its share buyback programs. In terms of shareholder return, so our net results has decreased by EUR 230 million versus 2024, thanks to better contribution of JV and Associates versus the impact of the segment operating income, less restructuring costs and despite as well an effective tax rate, which has increased from 22% to 26%. We will propose to our shareholder meeting in May, a stable dividend per share of EUR 1.38 per share, which represents a payout ratio of 57%. The idea is being that our payout ratio should fluctuate around 50%. And given the strength of our balance sheet, we will propose up to EUR 2 billion share buyback program in the next 3 years between 2026 and 2028, of which we will implement EUR 750 million in 2026. Now moving to 2026. I would like first to come back on our future segment reporting, which is aiming to provide to our shareholders and to all of you a better understanding of our different activity. In this slide, you will see a pro forma 2025 segment reporting that will allow you in the next quarters to compare our 2026 financial reporting, so with 2025 actual performance. I would like to highlight 4 points on this slide. First, you have probably observed that we have decided to rename our reporting segments to better translate as much as possible the nature of our customers. So the first segment, which is Automotive and Tools is mostly addressing consumers, even it's through distributors or OEMs. The second segment has not changed. It's about Transportation, goods and people transportation. Specialties, it speaks by itself. And Polymer Composite Solutions, it's the name that we have shared with you since our last Capital Market Day in 2024. So what you will observe is that Consumer and Transportation segments performance has not changed. Specialties now is made of 3 business lines: Mining, which represents 40% in terms of sales; Aircraft, 10%; and Beyond-road, 50%. Although Specialties are relative for the group with a 13.1% operating margin, this segment is clearly underperforming due to the weight and the performance of our beyond-road activity, which is impacted by the cyclicality of the Agro and the Construction businesses. And it's clearly, along with SR2 priority to -- the recovery of the performance of this subsegment is clearly a priority for the management of the company. And you see that the Polymer Composite Solutions represents 4.7% of the group sales and nearly 7% of the segment operating income, and it's the most profitable segment in terms of operating margin with nearly 15%. Florent mentioned earlier, the acquisition that we have announced in the past weeks, and that will be closed during 2026. In reality, the Cooley Group, the first acquisition has been closed on the second of February, and we expect TexTech and Flexitallic to close during the first half of the year. If you take all these activities, they are all North American company, bringing nearly 2,000 new employees within the group, headquartered in different regions. And with an aggregate turnover of EUR 450 million, which is an increase of 35% for PCS, an average operating margin of 17%, so which is accretive and relative versus the existing Polymer Composite Solutions business for an enterprise value of around EUR 1 billion, which translates in a ratio of 11.5% EV/EBITDA and even 9.7% if we take the EBITDA of 2025 plus the synergies that we are expecting to extract in the coming 4 years. So not taking into account the growth potential -- the intrinsic growth potential of these activities. So in terms of markets, coming back on -- particularly on the tire market, we are expecting a rather soft market over 2026 with probably balanced market between regional equipment and replacement, both for Truck and Passenger Car and probably a more optimistic picture for Specialties. In Original Equipment in Passenger Car, due to the fact that the incentive that has been implemented in China will have probably less effect in 2026, we expect the market not to grow at least in the first half and to be close to 0 in the second half. So overall, a market that will probably be slightly decreasing versus 2025. And on the replacement market, we are confident that the market should slightly grow and particularly in the second half of the year. The 2-wheel markets should as well post a positive trend. In the Truck and Bus, you see a very constructed situation on Original Equipment with still depressed H1, particularly in the North American market. We expect the OE truck market to decrease by 11% over the year and with the depressed first half and a slight recovery in the second half. And the replacement market should be more resilient over the year. Mining should continue to grow at a mid-single-digit pace. We expect on Beyond-road to stabilize and start to rebound with the replacement market that should further increase. And we have a positive orientation for Aircraft as well as for Polymer Composite Solutions. So in terms of guidance, as Florent shared already, we expect to deliver segment operating income at iso-scope and ForEx above 2025 and the free cash flow above EUR 1.6 billion before acquisitions. This guidance is relying on some key assumptions. We expect overall for the year to recover our growth in volume, probably with a flat H1 and a slight growth in H2 with a gradual recovery of Original Equipment market, particularly in B2B, and we expect this growth, thanks to an increased differentiation from innovation, both in terms of product and data. We should have the tailwind of the raw material that will play for the full year. And we expect with the assumptions we have in terms of tariff and ForEx, and I might come back on that. We expect that we build our forecast on the ForEx situation at the end of 2025. So a USD 118 per euro and a stable tariff situation. The tariff has impacted us at around EUR 250 million on the -- EUR 230 million in 2025 and should have an impact of around EUR 120 million in 2026. So taking into account all these assumptions and the levers and the willingness of the group to recover the growth path during that year, we believe that we can achieve these ambitions. Thank you very much. And I think now we can open the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from The first question is from Akshat Kacker, JPMorgan.

Akshat from JPMorgan. I have 2 questions, please. The first one on capital allocation. Clearly, a greater intent from your side to give back cash to shareholders, almost allocating 100% of free cash flow between dividends and share buybacks. And you also mentioned in your prepared remarks about M&A still being a priority. So could you just remind us how you're thinking about your balance sheet going forward and leverage targets over the cycle, please? That's the first question. And the second one is on your EBIT development in 2025. Now when I think about the 2 halves, clearly very different from each other, EUR 1.45 billion SOI in the first half, EUR 1.25 billion roughly in the second half. And I remember you telling us that second half seasonality is for better profits. And you talked about a large element of one-offs based on lower capacity utilization in the second half. So are you in a position to tell us what was the real underlying earnings of the business in the second half excluded for those one-offs? And how should we extrapolate that going into 2026?

So I will start with a few elements and Yves will complement. So on the -- first, on the EBIT development and the seasonality, sometimes H2 is better than H1 and sometimes it's the reverse. Now 2025 has been really special because of huge movements of inventories across the globe due to the situation in the U.S. And therefore, this has perturbated the normal cyclicality of markets. So today, we don't anticipate the situation to improve in the market in the first semester. But we have already signals that it will be gradually improving. Based on the circumstances we see now, of course, it will be gradually improving. So we are confident, plus the fact that we have been very reassured by what happened in the fourth quarter of 2025, where we adjusted -- it took us some time to realign and readjust what we had to do. But all the strong assets of Michelin are still there and transformations are still ongoing and our capacity to grow is still there. So we have tuned and we have adapted to the market conditions, and it has paid a dividend in the fourth quarter. So we are confident in our ability to deliver what Yves just said. In terms of capital allocation, we have decided to say that our balance sheet is too deleveraged. And at 13%, we have a lot of flexibility. So of course, we anticipate the interest rates to decrease in the coming years. We have today debts that are at a very advantageous rate. So basically, we said, okay, we can use our balance sheet that we have generated today to distribute our dividends according to what we have said, plus to buy back shares because that is in the past. In the future, our balance sheet is still strong and is very low -- has very low leverage. So that's why we have said we can do everything without compromising our strategy. Maybe Yves, if you want to add.

And maybe to focus on this capital allocation, before the COVID, we used to land the year with a cash of around EUR 2.5 billion. With the COVID, with the huge inflationary pressure that we get in 2022, which was nearly EUR 2 billion on our working capital, we end with a much bigger cash at the end of the year. And we consider that it's not optimized to keep this level of cash. So that's why we need as well to come back to a more healthier level. And of course, we are at 13% gearing. If I take the assumption of at least EUR 1.6 billion of free cash flow and I had the dividend of a little bit more than EUR 900 million plus the EUR 750 million of share buyback. It means that we'll increase at the end of the year, the debt by nearly EUR 1 billion, which is basically the enterprise value of the acquisition we just announced, which is not -- which will probably lead us to still land in the round of 20% or below 20% gearing. So we are still in a very healthy and solid situation.

And sorry, and to come back on the market situation, I forgot to mention that the fundamentals of passenger car, the mileage driven all across the world is very stable. So it means that the OE being down in most mature markets, what happens is the vehicle park is aging very fast actually. And it's the same situation in Truck despite the fact that the freight cash index in the U.S. is sharply down. But the vehicle park is still very much aging. So it cannot age forever. So at some point, the market will have to recover, and that's what we start to anticipate.

Should we think about any extraordinary costs in the second half result of what you reported in the second half in terms of sharp adjustments to capacity? Or do you think that second half result is a good number to look at when we think about what carries over to the first half of this year?

No, because you -- the second half, we had a very contrasted picture between Q3 and Q4. We have a very bad Q3, particularly in North America, which lead us to the profit warning in October. And we have a far stronger and far healthier situation in Q4. So when we look at the trend of Q4 and projecting Q4 in Q1, it makes us relatively optimistic on our ability to improve our operating margin in 2026, starting in the first half.

The next question is from Harry Martin, Bernstein.

The first question I have is on the price/mix performance. When we spoke at Q3, you didn't have a lot of confidence in Q4 price/mix, guided it to slow sequentially driven by what competitors were doing with discounting and imports. In the end, price/mix accelerated in Q4. So how did you achieve that? Which markets were better than the expectations? And how do you feel about the price premium for your products in the key segments? And then I'd like to ask about the non-tire M&A as well. It would be good to hear some more of the rationale and how you go about choosing targets. Of the 3 acquisitions in the U.S., some seem to be more in quite technical products, specialty fabrics and coatings. Some you could say are a little bit more simple type products, seals and gaskets. So help us understand where in this very [ disparate ] industry, the real value creation opportunity is and where that genuine underlying demand growth is for these products?

So on the price mix, what happened during the 2025 was very stressful because we had -- Q1, we had to fix China; Q2, we had to fix Europe; and Q3, we had to fix the U.S. And so it moved around, and it put us in a very stressful situation. Basically, the tariff situation led us to -- as we are the leader in price, led us to adapt to the market conditions and to the tariff situation, which put us out of the market basically. So we were not according to the market situation -- to the market conditions. So we have adapted. And as soon as we have adapted, immediately, the good strong fundamentals of Michelin came back. And that's why we have seen the price/mix came back. So when we are -- you're slightly depositioned, of course, we've lost share during those moments in the various regions. We lost share, but we recaptured those lost share very quickly towards the end of the year because we came back to what is acceptable by the market. And of course, now we have -- we are much more agile, and we can adapt to any market conditions and any market situation much more quickly than what we were able to do in the past. So we have done a lot of work on this subject. So we are now much more agile. And maybe Yves, on the Non-Tire.

On the Non-Tire activity. So how do we choose the targets? We have a team in Polymer Composite Solutions, which is dedicated to this segment. First, some targets can come from the business units we have already in our portfolio and who has a very strong knowledge of their ecosystem. But we are as well studying potential targets that are offered to us or that we identify. The criteria have not changed versus what we shared with you during the May 2024 Capital Market Day. We look at critical applications where generally the value of the product offered by these companies is relatively small versus the value of the entire system, they contribute to move or to make functioning. Then we look at companies or activities where we consider that we have a parental advantage in terms of research and development. As Florent shared at the beginning, we look at are we able with our capabilities in terms of material science to enhance the performance, to reduce the cost, to improve the sustainability of the product that these companies are offering. And then, of course, we look at the financials. We look at the growth also potential. Are these businesses, these companies in segments that are at risk of commoditization or not? What are the underlying growth levers? So that's why we look at that very carefully. It took us 2 years basically. In 2023 and 2024, we did not achieve -- 2023, we did the FCG. But 2024 and 2025, we did not achieve any major acquisition. It's just at the very end of the year and early 2026 that we are able to communicate. So it shows that we are both prudent, but as well, we want to invest where we can really bring value to the customers and, of course, to the company and our shareholders.

The next question is from Martino de Ambroggi, Equita.

Two more questions on the Polymers division. So what's your best case scenario in 2, 3 years' time? And under the current perimeter, you used to provide a medium, long-term target in terms of profitability for your divisions. Now we have a split of the specialty. So could you provide any target for the stand-alone Polymers division in the current perimeter? And the second question is on the financial leverage because you mentioned we have low leverage. But what is the maximum amount of cash out or debt to EBITDA? I don't know, just to understand what is the firepower you are available, you are comfortable with in case of additional M&A?

First question, and Yves will probably take the second question. So on the first one is -- so in terms of profitability, the Specialties today is way below where it should be because of the weight of our Beyond-road activities that are having a tough time. So we are confident that the Specialties business should be at a much higher rate because Mining and Aircraft are showing that it's very strong. And if we look at the Polymer Composite Solutions, what I've said in my introduction was it is -- it should be in excess of 15%. So like the Specialties, this should be highly relative in terms of operating income and even also in cash flow generation because they are light -- the Polymer Composite Solutions are light in assets, compared to the Tire activities. So that's why we have chosen to get there. Now also the part of the synergies, we have most of the time, small cost synergies, but high -- and we have demonstrated that with Fenner and also we are demonstrating that with the FCG, we have high revenue synergies related to the technology we can bring in the market we get in, like Yves just mentioned. So in terms of profitability, we have said PCS should be at minimum 15% and giving us growth for the group, and we intend to grow that share.

So in terms of leverage, first, I did not comment it, but all the rating agencies have confirmed our rating, which is basically A with a stable outlook. And we know basically that we can increase our debt by a few billion, EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion without impacting our rating. So it's the first answer. We have the room to stay strong investment grade with a strong investment-grade rating while spending -- increasing by EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion our net debt.

And I think we have demonstrated so far that we make moves that are interesting for the shareholders in the long run.

The next question is from Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux.

First question, could you confirm that in Q4, both in SR1 and SR3, your volumes were positive and also confirm that we should expect these 2 segments to have positive volumes for 2026 so that your group volumes are effectively positive for the year? That's the first question. And the second is 2 small topics on modeling. There's been, first, much stronger contribution in the P&L from your associates. Could you explain why and what we should expect again in '26 for the associates line? And the second small modeling question is your CapEx has been a positive surprise in '25. The group has clearly shrunk in terms of volumes over the last 3 years. Could you expect that you can stay at a relatively lower CapEx than what was projected at the last CMD in 2026? Or is it -- was it just a one-off in '25?

So on the volume, Yves was clear on that. We have grown at the MICHELIN brand, especially on replacement markets in SR1 and SR3. Now OE is still depressed. So we didn't grow at OE specifically, but we have improved the performance at OE in SR1.

But to answer precisely to the question, our volume both in SR1 and SR3 were positive in Q4.

Now in terms of CapEx, we did not spend exactly what we wanted to spend in 2025 because of internal thing. It's not -- we didn't drive specifically CapEx to shrink that much. So we have said we should be in the neighborhood of EUR 2 billion, EUR 1 billion because we want to improve the ergonomics and especially the productivity everywhere. So we still have a lot of things to do to complete our productivity effort. So that's why we maintain that level. But we have almost 0 capacity investment.

So regarding the JV and Associates, we had in these categories different kind of activities. We have some mature activities such as our distribution JV and Associates and the activities that are linked to the natural rubber plantation and transformation as well as one -- we have as well the medical joint venture, Solesis, that we have put in a joint venture few years ago. These companies are generally positively contributing. And in the case of TBC, there was some additional contribution due to the fact that TBC concentrate itself on its core business, which is mostly wholesale and sold first, its retail business in -- company-owned retail in 2023 and more recently, its Midas franchise. So there was, let's say, an extra contribution. On the other hand, we used to have in this segment also some technological ventures such [indiscernible] and Symbio. Symbio, as you know, due to Stellantis' decision to withdraw from the hydrogen value chain has to bear some heavy restructuring cost in 2025. So it has negatively impacted. But when we look -- looking forward, this negative contributions are now over. We have -- we are still the Symbio shareholder, and we have a plan over the next 3 years. But the cost of the next 3-year Symbio turnaround plan is already embedded in our 2025 contribution from JV and Associates. So looking forward, we should have, let's say, the natural recurrent contribution of distribution, medical business and natural rubber value chain.

The next question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.

I have 3, if I may. The first one is on the price/mix for 2026. If I'm not wrong, for 2026, we should see mostly a mix effect rather than price. And if I'm right, which is the division do you expect the mix will be -- which division will benefit the most from the mix in 2026, if I can ask? And the second question is on the Truck business. I understand that the company is implementing actions to make the Truck Tires less related to the cycle. So considering this action, what do you see as a sustainable margins for this area? And very finally, the last question is on the SR3. Are you planning any specific action regarding the manufacturing loading rates in beyond tires? And if so, what could be once again a sustainable margins for this area?

So on the price/mix effect, you're right, it's mainly a mix effect, but the mix is composed of many different dimensions. You have the geographic mix, you have the division mix, you have the product mix, you have the segment mix. There are many mixes. So it's -- unfortunately, we don't have the time to go into the details of the type of mixes. But yes, on the other one, the price should be -- it would be more a mix than price. But remember, we have a lot of index businesses and the raw materials started to go down, and there is a lag between -- in the index business, the lag time before we see the decrease in the cost and before it translates into the price. That's what you start to see in 2026. But we know that -- we know very well how to manage pricing, and we understand what are our input costs. So we will be very agile and adapt. In SR2, we have done a lot of restructuring. We forgot to mention that we have -- most of the restructuring in SR2, especially industrial restructuring is behind us. And in 2025 has been affected by the Cholet closure specifically, that has -- a portion of the SR2 business has been heavily affected by that closure. This is behind us now. So it's very easy. Yves has been very clear. In the down cycle, we want the margins of this business to be not destroying value and in upward cycle, creating value. That's where we -- that's how we want to drive the business. And when we look at Beyond-Road, the learning rates are low because of OE. And we know in this business, very cyclical business, when OE gets back, then we almost immediately fall into shortfall in back orders and we lack product because the ramp-up is going to be extremely steep. So what we are doing is we are flexing our industrial capacities right now. So that in terms of planning, we are creating -- we are very innovative in the way we can flex these plans so that we are less sensitive to the market fluctuation. But then we cannot give you more details on that.

The next question is from Stephen Benhamou, Bank of America.

I have 2 questions, please. The first one is on the road map. So can you please give us more detail regarding the magnitude of the raw mat tailwind that you anticipate for 2026? And what's the expected logistics and wages cost inflation that you also anticipate? And what's the phasing between H1 and H2? This is my first question. My second question is about the share buyback program. Can you please confirm that you said that you're committed to a program of EUR 750 million this year? And what about the remaining potential portion of EUR 1.3 billion? Should we expect a balanced program between 2027 and 2028? And last question is about your potential new road map. When do you expect to present this new road map?

Okay. So I will take the last portion. Actually, it's 4 questions. But -- so very quickly, we have said it's up to EUR 2 billion in 3 years on share buyback. We have said we will launch EUR 750 million, and we will look where we are at in terms of cash generation, our balance sheet and our acquisitions. And then we will see. On the new road map, the new road map, of course, we are finishing -- we have to finish 2026 and 2026 just started. And before we come back to you on the CMD to say, okay, what is our road map from 2027 up to 2030, and we will give you that road map at that time. And maybe on the 2 first questions.

Yes. So on the raw material, we estimate that we'll have a favorable effect around EUR 400 million in 2026 with a negative logistics and wage inflation in the range of EUR 220 million. Today, it's around EUR 180 million of wages, labor cost and around EUR 40 million in logistics. Don't forget that we'll have as well EUR 120 million of the 2026 effect of the North American tariffs that we hope to be able to transfer to the market, but we have seen 2025 has shown us that it's not always a long and peaceful journey.

Okay. I think we have to take the last question.

The last question is from Christoph Laskawi, Deutsche Bank.

Sorry for being relatively short term. So good you commented on a very negative Q1 in volume terms, down 10%. Given that you've essentially now repositioned in China, in Europe and the U.S., could you comment where you expect Q1 volumes roughly to be for the market? And if we should think about your performance be rather in line with the market or slightly different to that? And then just second question, really on the PCS business. Do you see after the 3 transactions year-to-date, the business in a place where you want it to be? Or would there be further white spots that you seek to add?

So I would not comment on what our competitors are saying. That's down to their business. We do not see the same thing, and we expect to bring, especially the MICHELIN brand where it should be -- and where it has been and where it should be, and we have every signal that it should be the case. So our anticipation in the first quarter, we don't see the market being down 10%. So I will not comment further on this. And maybe on PCS?

And maybe inventories to complete the answer to the first question, inventories in distribution for our product is at a healthy level...

Everywhere.

In all segments. For PCS, yes, we are constantly looking at potential opportunities. But as you know, as I explained, the deal can take up to 18 months or 2 years. So the teams are working on some deals. But to tell you when they will be finalized, I don't have a crystal ball because it depends as well of the willingness of the seller and of course, our ability to -- as well to well understand. I mentioned the question of the parental advantage to make sure that we have a real parental advantage. So that's why we take the time we need to make sure we are making sound decisions in terms of acquisitions.

Well, thank you. This concludes our call. Thank you very much for attending. See you soon.

Thank you. Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Michelin conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.