Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the earnings conference call of COPASA MG for the earnings of the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year of 2025. This conference is being recorded, and the material can be accessed at the company's website at ri.copasa.com.br. The presentation is also available for download on the platform. [Operator Instructions] I would like to mention that outlook statements are based on the information available to the company and management of the company. Those statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they refer to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors, analysts and journalists should take into account that macroeconomic related facts and also industry facts can cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I now would like to turn the floor to the CEO of the company, Marilia Carvalho de Melo, who will start the presentation. Mrs. Marilia ília, you may start.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, investors, analysts, especially our dedicated team at COPASA. It's a great pleasure to be here for this first earnings call as a CEO of the company. I know that this is a crucial moment for the history of the company, a moment in which, as I have noticed attentively in these months, it represents an important transition to the operational execution plan. I could verify that in the context I had with some analysts. And I also stated that I highly admire the work that has been developed and implemented recently by the team. And this is being recognized by the market, considering the favorable reports by the companies that keep track of our performance. The recent upgrades of ratings of COPASA are a testimony to the hard work we've been implementing. So my commitment is to honor this legacy to continue and accelerate this journey. This is a key moment for the development of COPASA. Our purpose is clear to take care of the waters, make sanitation services universal and improve the standards of society with objective goals and discipline in execution. In 2025, we've reached record investments in the company of BRL 2.9 billion in CapEx, an increase that accounted for 39% in the water supply systems and 13% in the sewage systems. In the next 5 years from 2026 to 2030, COPASA will execute one of the largest investment cycles of its history with an accrued CapEx of BRL 21 billion approximately. Those funds will be priority targeted at the universalization of sewage treatment and services, reduction of losses and water security. In terms of water security, I understand it's absolutely relevant, especially in this climate change environment because we're integrating planning, operation and investments to mitigate the risks of trucks and extreme events to protect the watersheds and ensure supply of water in the long run for our customers. In terms of defined initiatives and the strategic positioning I found when entering the company is clear and consensual, and I endorse it fully. Our strategy is based on three solid pillars. The first one is a successful execution of privatization. The path is clear, the model is robust, and the political risk was drastically reduced in the end of last year. So my focus is to ensure an impeccable completion of our schedule to ensure that. The second pillar is a favorable environmental and regulatory environment. These are facts that we're going to use to accelerate our investments in the company and protect. A predictable and technical regulatory environment is an essential condition to make long-term investments feasible. We'll strengthen our regulatory intelligence with focus on tariff predictability, correct recognition of investment and reduction of risks. And the third pillar that I'm very excited about is the considerable increasing gains of efficiency. I see a huge opportunity to optimize our operations with a goal to reduce costs that will allow us to increase our margins and generate more cash. Regarding our ESG practices, at COPASA, sustainability has been a strategic pillar that exceeds corporate responsibilities. It boosts the business model and strengthen the value proposition of the company in the long run. This is validated by several indexes that the company maintains, especially because it was included in the carbon efficiency index of B3, which recognizes the effort in the transition to a low-carbon economy. And it also highlights companies that have followed diversity criteria. In addition, we're structuring the company to explore new business opportunities in a selective and responsible way, always aligned with our core business. To that effect, we have two important projects in execution, the reuse of treated sewage and generation of biowaste, biosolids that with the strategic partners that bring new sources of revenue, and these projects have started in the year of 2025. Regarding our current concessions, we know that one of the points of attention of analysts is in the extension of the concession with -- for Belo Horizonte. We can say that in technical and commercial terms of the renewal of this concession are -- have been 100% agreed to between the parties. Right now, we are in the part of legal approvals that involve several levels and that it has its own pace. But we can remain confident that this will be signed shortly. We also understand that the BH process provides us a clear route that allows us to facilitate and expedite negotiations with other local authorities. Last month, I had a chance to welcome the leaders of 250 municipalities to talk about the new moment of the company and listen to them so we can improve our operations. We understand the quality of services and customer experiences is one of our key pillars for diversification. We don't want to just comply with regulatory criteria, but provide more than that. And to complete, I would like to say that COPASA is a company that has several achievements and a promising future. My mission is to guarantee that this strategy is complied with and put into practice to generate sustainable value for shareholders and provide universalization of sanitation services for all users. I thank the Board of Directors for the warm welcome and the team. And I'm very enthusiastic about this new chapter that will build together in the important history of COPASA. I thank you for your attention. And now I turn the floor over to Adriano Moura, who will talk about the results of the last quarter and the year of 2025. And in the end, we will come back for the Q&A session. Thank you.

Thank you, Marilia. I thank you all for attending our earnings conference call. We are delivering one more quarter with solid financial results with many challenges faced and important advances that will work as a reference for this new cycle of COPASA with a greater capacity of execution, more regulatory predictability and a robust agenda of investments that will generate value, as highlighted by Marilia, the CEO. Starting with the highlights of the fourth quarter of 2025. In the net revenue, we had a revenue of BRL 1.9 billion, almost 7% higher than the last quarter of 2024; EBITDA of BRL 731 million, a growth of 14% compared to the fourth Q '24 with a margin of 38.5%, reflecting a combined -- a positive combination of revenue and cost discipline. It's important that we -- the third tariff review was completed in December that brought significant advances, among which the average tariff effect of 6.56% that will be effective as of January [ '22 ] and a pretax WACC of 13.7%, probably the highest rate for utility companies in Brazil and the recognition of annual investments that will help us to support robust investments that we need to make in order to attain the universalization in the state. I also highlight the operating cash generation of BRL 505 million with a growth of 5% compared to 4Q '24. The leverage -- the average leverage is a bit higher than in the end of '24 at 2.3% at a comfortable level that's compatible with the investment profile of the company and adequate to the capital structure. Another important fact is the completion of the protection for hedge contracts because our debts are -- 20% of them are in euro, and they have been protected with swap plus -- IPCA+ swaps. And finally, something that we have celebrated a lot here at COPASA, which is the fact that our shares are now included in the IBOVESPA Index, which reflects a great interest of investors and the strategic direction of the company. On the next slide, we see the highlights of 2025 for the whole year, net revenue of BRL 7.4 billion approximately, a growth of 5.6% compared to 2024; the annual EBITDA of almost BRL 3 billion, short of BRL 3 billion, an increase of 5.7% versus 2024 and a margin that's quite similar to that of 2024. We faced major challenges, especially low temperatures in the state, which had a negative effect on the volume. CapEx was already mentioned by Marilia, BRL 2.9 billion, which is a growth of 32%. Water loss ratio was reduced significantly in 2025 compared to the previous years. I will go into further detail about that and the goal of attaining 25% by 2033 according to the legal framework. Cash generation, BRL 2.3 billion, a growth of almost 13% compared to the previous year. Dividends totaled what -- if we consider what was paid as regular and extraordinary dividends, we're talking about 639 -- BRL [ 853 ] million and some yet to be paid now in BRL 139 million payable in 2026. And the delinquency rate at a stable level of 2.91%, slightly better than that of 2024, which reflects the effective collection efforts that the sales area is implementing. The next slide, this slide consolidates our agenda of execution that supports the structural margins of COPASA. It's based on productivity, operational modernization and a strict cost discipline. This combination has allowed the company to operate at a new efficiency level despite a challenging environment. One of the fronts was the redesign of operating an organizational model with a new centralized operating model and the automation of treatment plants, the modernization of our assets. This improved the flows, made the operations more agile. In the operational efficiency and shared services area, we worked with three levers. First, the zero-based budgeting model that now we have a [ Floriano ] plan as of 2026, allowing for more comparability and technical rigor to the use of funds; and the second area is strategic sourcing model, which has allowed us to renegotiate contracts and have important gains in scale and quality. And the third one is the creation of the shared services center that's fully consolidated and operates with 150-plus services centralized and 600 employees that unites services that were scattered around the company. That makes it more -- increases the administrative efficiency. In optimization of energy cost, we have increased the free market and photovoltaic energy sources. Only 15% is in the captive market of energy and management of demand with better, more efficient models to reduce consumption of energy. And finally, the loss reduction and revenue improvement -- some examples. In 2025, we were able to replace more than 700,000 water meters, so making measurements more accurate. Therefore, we're reducing the average age of the meters that's now 3 years and 3 months compared to 5 years and 2 months in 2021. And we are expediting the replacement in the metropolitan area of [ Beagá ], Belo Horizonte, and 100 kilometers of network were replaced in 2025. That favors operational efficiency, improves the quality of services and increases the revenue base of the company, also contributing to the incentive in the annual tariff adjustment. So simply put, this plan integrates people, processes and technology. It reduces expenses, improves the quality of operations, makes energy consumption more effective and makes room for more consistent margins. The next slide, we see the development of EBITDA for 4Q '25 compared to the fourth quarter of '24, a growth of 14% for the quarter, BRL 731 million. In 4Q '25, the net revenue grew by 7%, considering volume and a better mix in addition to the tariff adjustment as of January 2025. The cost and expenses on average grew slightly below inflation. Personnel costs that reflects the collective bargaining agreements signed in 2024 and 2025, the base date is November, which were partially offset by the reduction of 170 employees, which is around 2% of the total staff. Cost of services from third parties improved because of the reduction of consulting agreements with the nonrecurring demands. This growth of losses with accounts receivable, BRL 20 million was affected by the aging of the portfolio, especially those above 180 and 360 days. That increased the need for provisions to be made that in this quarter, was above the recovery level. Although recovery increased almost 30%, reaching BRL 60 million in the quarter, it was smaller than the increase in the provisions made. So that affected the net balance of this account by BRL 20 million compared to the fourth quarter of '24. On the other hand, the delinquency rate that's measured by the delays in payment from -- or late payments in 280, 360; days is lower and better than in 2024. Now continuing, the next slide, we highlight the net income. The main positive impact is the evolution of EBITDA. Depreciation increased due to new investments as expected. Financial effects, almost no impact, although the debt increased. We were also benefited by the impact of exchange rate here. And the effective rate remains at a very good value, 20%, considering the entire area of [indiscernible] and the interest on equity, which is now as of the cycle of 2026, it will be integrated as a benefit for the company. Now continuing, here, I just highlight the robust operating cash generation, 5.2 when compared to the same period of last year. CapEx highly concentrated in the last quarter of BRL 1 billion with the need to raise funds of BRL 105 million in the period and payments of dividends and interest on equity, as early mentioned. Just financial indicators of 2025 and 2024, all with consistent growth, highlighting the robust cash generation of BRL 2.3 billion, slightly below the need for CapEx of BRL 2.8 billion. That does not include capitalizations that are part of the base. Next slide. Regular dividends had a payout of 50%, BRL 653 million have been declared, and the payment for BRL 139 million will be set in the General Meeting of Shareholders. Extraordinary dividends have been paid in December 2025. And for 2026, the Board of Directors has defined a payout of 50%, maintaining the predictable distribution policy. Next slide, strategic investments history since 2025, and we highlight the record investments in 2025 with almost BRL 3 billion and a growth of 32% compared to the previous year. We predict for the period from 2026 to 2030, BRL 21 billion. We've provided this guidance in previous meetings, that does not include capitalizations. The focus of the investments will be in sewage universalization and water security, especially in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte. Loss reduction, heavy investments are being made considering the goal of 25% by 2030 and the retrofit of wastewater treatment plants that improve the OpEx efficiency; these are essential pillars to sustain the growth cycle of the company. Continuing the next slide, the capital structure and debt of the company. In December, the debt was almost BRL 7 billion compared to BRL 5.4 billion in the end of 2024, a leverage of 2.3 slightly higher than in 2024, but still at a level that's compatible with the investments of COPASA. Now considering the swap hedge with IPCA, we have a debt that's considered that indexed by IPCA mostly. And the last highlight of this slide is that we remain with a AAA rating, both by Moody's and Fitch. This is almost the last slide. with the indicators. We talked about the loss index that had a very positive performance. Several investments are still planned that will certainly reduce this index further. Delinquency, 2.91. It's a record low since 2020. And first -- and finally, employees per connection -- per 1,000 connections of 1.18, so that does not include COPANOR and a reduction of 2% compared to the previous year. And to conclude before we start the Q&A, this last slide shows a summary of tariff review advancements now for the cycle from 2026 to 2029. The main advances were pretax WACC of 13.7%, which is equivalent to 9.80% post tax. When compared to the previous cycle, it was a significant increase from 7.92% to 9.70%. Also, we must consider that there is a tax benefit that after taxes that will be equivalent to 11%, considering that we have benefits from [indiscernible] and interest on equity. That's also the end of PMT mechanism. So investments will be recognized annually, which means that all investments made up until June will become the base for the next review, which will be January of 2027. And finally, the partial sharing of efficiency gains inside the cycle, as of January 2026, this will be shared within the cycle, which coincides with our cost reduction efforts. And we are sure that there will be a regressive table regarding these gains as happened with Sabesp in Sao Paulo, as highlighted in recent notes. Well, with that, we conclude the presentation of the financial and operational results of the fourth quarter. And now I pass the floor on to the operator to start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] First question is from [ Joao Pedro ] from Santander.

We have two questions here. First, regarding the extra expenses on the Pro Mananciais program, watershed program, I would like to know whether these investments could be recovered by the company in the tariff review. And also in an interview that was published in the media saying that there are 80 towns that are considered strategic by the companies. What is the proportion of these towns for the company? And how many of these 80 towns is not served by COPASA right now?

Thank you, João. I'll turn the floor to Cleyson to answer about the Pro Mananciais question.

Well, the Pro watershed program is biannual. So everything we spend is recomposed by a tariff. And the raise is because in 2024, we did not attain the investment goal. So in 2025, we had this difference.

About your second question, referring to the 80 towns, these 80 towns that are considered strategic for the company are based on a study we made. These are towns that we have concessions for. And obviously, they are part of our strategy to amend the agreements in this pre-statization [ moment ].

The next question comes from Maria Carolina Carneiro from Safra.

I have two questions also. The first one is about the same interview that João mentioned. You said that the Belo Horizonte agreement would be in this final negotiation stages. Could you give us some more color as to what are the possible improvements to this agreement or items on this agreement that could compare to the current contract in terms of updates and modernizations? Just also we could -- because we would like to understand if this could be replicated to other agreements. And since you -- the second question is also related to the previous question. These 80 towns that are strategic for the company you already have agreements with, we would like to understand the scope of the municipalities in which you don't provide sewage services. Is there any type of negotiation happening in parallel to make the most of this moment because we had the tariff review recently defined with an interesting return, as Adriano mentioned? So should we expect a negotiation to include these towns in the scope of this new agreement since now the investments would be greater?

Thank you for your question, Maria Carolina. This is Marilia speaking. About the contract of Belo Horizonte, the agreement, in fact, we are in the final stages. All the commercial and technical topics have been discussed and agreed upon. And now the final version is going to the city authority of Belo Horizonte, the legal department for -- to be signed. We have all the municipalities with the standard concession agreements, but Belo Horizonte has some specific details giving the importance of the city for the company. And we'll be able to talk about it as soon as the negotiation process is completed and the contract is signed. But we are talking to all municipalities. We defined the strategic front to negotiate with the 80 main towns, but we are talking to all the municipalities to consider the concession agreement considering the window of the desatization process, including in the municipalities in which we have agreements for water supply concession, but not sewage treatment. So all of them are being talked and called to talk, and we would like to provide services in those municipalities to which we do not provide sewage services.

Okay. That's very clear. If I could just ask one additional question to make sure I understand the scope of what's being negotiated. So you are trying to propose a model that's different from the current regulation model, let's say, from going to a tariff calculation based on a fixed return to a model of fixed tariff. Is this the idea? Or are there other fronts or possibilities being negotiated? I mean, as much as you can tell, of course, just to make sure I understand.

Maria Carolina, we maintain our discretionary regulation model.

Our next question comes from Luiza Candiota from Itau BBA.

My first question has been answered. So the second question is about the CapEx plan and execution strategy looking to the future, especially considering the guidance of BRL 21 billion recently announced. I would like to understand, how you expect the pace of the monetization of the works in progress, considering that the company has an amount -- a considerable amount of amounts in contract and considering current regulations? I would like to understand the level of complexity and pace of these works in progress. And what do you intend to do to accelerate the execution to incorporate this into the asset base?

Thank you for your question. Well, I believe it's clear that our investment plan is based on the enough detailing to make sure that we can guarantee the universalization goals will be complied with in a reasonable way. We -- I'm sorry, certainly, this is the main challenge to incorporate that into the base. With the annual recognition, this responsibility only increases. We'll have to have an in-house structure to bring all these investments to the base. So there is a calibration plan, although -- because although these are long-term projects, they should be divided in levels so that we can have annual recognition that's much higher than depreciation per year so that we can increase our capacity of investment.

[Operator Instructions] There is a question from Lucas that talks about efficiency gains post monetization in terms of reduction of OpEx. Where will the main gains come from?

As I told you, this is one of the relevant fronts of our strategic plan. We are now starting a zero-based budgeting project, and that has several initiatives compared to the best practices in the market. We see potential for improvement. We're not giving any guidance regarding reductions, but I may say these are significant reductions compared to our current base. The good thing is that this is all mapped out. We have a very detailed plan -- action plan that is part of our budget for 2026. And then we have a pluriannual view for the cycle that ends in 2029.

Lucas, complementing on what Moura said, this is Marilia speaking, there are three important fronts in the cost optimization process. First, reduction of losses that was presented by Moura, that today is at 32%. And our goal is to achieve 25% by 2033. The optimization of personnel structure, not by dismissals, but by gaining productivity and making optimization with the reorganization of our internal teams. And the third is to -- is the review of third outsourcing and purchasing procurement contracts. We already have the shared services center operating that allows us to gain scale and optimize our hiring processes.

With regards to the question from Danilo, is there a concrete predictability for the incorporation of the new COPASA? And from what quarter should this impact the financial results of the company?

Danilo, the law approved in the shareholders' meeting at the end of the year allows the incorporation of COPANOR to COPASA. But we haven't yet started this process, we're focused on the destatization process to then continue with the other processes according to the authorization given at the end of last year.

Question from Leonardo from [indiscernible]. I would like to know if the CapEx plan includes the payment of granting to the municipalities.

No, this 21 million plan does not include the payment of granting fees to the municipalities or concession.

[Operator Instructions] Earnings conference call of COPASA has ended. We thank you all for your time and attention, and have a good afternoon.