Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending today's session. My name is Richard Garchitorena. I am the senior analyst covering the ag sector and work with Mike Sison on the chemical sector here at Wells Fargo. Today, it's my pleasure to kick off the day 1 sessions here at the Industrials Conference. It's my pleasure to introduce Dave Anderson, CFO of Corteva. As you may know, Corteva is a leading global provider of seed and crop protection solutions, focused on the agricultural sector. The company was created post the merger of DowDuPont in 2017, IPO-ed in 2019. It just celebrated its fifth year as a public company. So with that, let me just start off with Dave. Thanks again for coming. If you can start off with a brief overview of who Corteva is and what you're seeing in the ag market today and the current state of the farmer.

Sure. So first of all, let me say thank you for the invitation to be here and the opportunity to present to the conference today. So Corteva, just picking up on that theme of the anniversary, as you know, we just celebrated, that we were on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last week, celebrating our fifth year anniversary as a public company. It's notable because during that period of time, of a lot of progress has been made. And of course, we're a standout as a U.S.-based publicly traded global ag tech company and unique in terms of that crop protection and seed portfolio offering, which is a significant strength for us. During the 5 years, some key accomplishments. Number one, we have added to our technology innovation portfolio of 7,000 patents over that period of time, which is significant. Number two, from an operating standpoint, we've improved EBITDA margins by over 500 basis points going back to 2019 to 2023 is actual at around 19.6%. And number three, the amount of cash that we generated and the return of cash and value to shareholders. We've returned over $5 billion in the form of dividends, about $2 billion -- and over $3 billion of share buyback during that period. So these are notable accomplishments for a company and let alone one that is new to the stage -- to the global stage as Corteva is. In terms of sort of an update, let's go back just a little bit to some of the themes that we talked about on May 2, during our earnings release, our first quarter earnings release. At the time, we said, results were basically, Richard, as you recall, in line with expectations. We had a very good start to the year in our seed business that continues. I'm going to talk about that in just a moment a little bit more. But a terrific start for seed, really good volume that we had, particularly in U.S. and our pioneer, if you will recall, corn seed business, just a very, very strong start to the year, and that momentum continues. As expected, we had headwinds in the Crop Protection business. You recall, we were lapping a very strong first quarter in 2023. So the compare was a really tough compare. And we saw and continue to see some of the still imbalance, we would say, in terms of demand supply imbalance in the Crop Protection business, which really characterized a significant portion of latter part of '23 and continues to a degree in some markets in 2024. Now despite that, we had over $1 billion of EBITDA. Again, numbers that were consistent with our expectations. Cash was good. It was more favorable compared to prior year and it was better than our internal expectation. We think that's going to kind of even out over the course of the year, given the timing of revenues, the pattern and distribution of receivables over the course of the year. So I want to maybe segue a little bit to kind of what we're seeing now and a quick update in terms of markets that's good. So talking about seed again, what we're seeing is continued strength. We had very favorable, if you will, planting conditions during the first quarter. Some of that became more challenging as we progressed, weather-related in -- particularly in the key crop growing areas of the U.S. Just to give you some data, just some color around that. We saw this recently from our Chief Economist. In Iowa and the number of the major counties in Iowa it was as wet, of the first 3 weeks of May, so up to May 22, as it's been in the recorded history. So it's just incredible, the amount of dampness, the amount of moisture that has been incurred. And similarly, when you look at the key states in terms of corn row crop states in the United States, among the top 25% wettest springs that has been experienced for, in addition to Iowa, also the Western Corn Belt, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Really, the exceptions would be Central Illinois, Northern Indiana, Michigan, which were not as moist. All of that has affected the timing of planting and therefore, the timing also of spray of application in terms of crop protection chemicals. Back on the seed, we do see planting continuing at a very good pace. As of this week, it's around 95% in terms of corn, in terms of percentage, which compares pretty favorably to historic average. It's a little less than last year, but favorable compared to historic average. And soybean has gone from around 78% last week, percent planted to about 87% this week. Again, consistent with historic average and a little bit ahead -- I'm sorry, a little bit behind last year's, same as corn, but basically healthy. We're in good shape. There has been, though, a knock-on effect in terms of Crop Protection with some delays in terms of sprays, in terms of applications. And our anticipation is that those will largely spill over then shift from 2Q into 3Q. The other notable, I'd say, update since May 2, and we've talked about this on May 2, and it's a theme across the industry is really Europe and the weather in Europe. And as you know, again, cold and damper weather, particularly in Northern Europe. So that would include the U.K. as well as France and Germany. That has also been impactful in terms of timing of seed. We talked about that in the first quarter. We had volumes now for our seed business, 10% in Europe, that's really a shift into 2Q. So we'll see some of that benefit in 2Q. Again, this is ag. So you have -- you can expect these anomalies to happen, these perturbations to happen. But what we have seen, again, is a knock-on effect on the Crop Protection business with delays and in some cases, missed applications for Crop Protection in Europe. So that also plays into our thinking in terms of our forecast.

Okay. And then maybe just to close the loop, Latin America. Obviously, there was flooding in the south of Brazil, Argentina corn stunt, how that affects the recovery down there?

So Latin America, in terms of Southern Brazil and the Rio Grande do Sul area, obviously very notable in terms of the flooding and really very, very tragic for a number the people, businesses, et cetera. Now on the crop side, most of that harvest had already occurred. So for us, it really didn't affect. We'll see. It's really a to-be-determined. It's a very good question because it's to be determined in terms of the upcoming season and what farmers will actually plant, what the conditions are, et cetera, not only the planting conditions, but also the financial conditions and situation. So that's very much a TBD. The other thing that you mentioned is Argentina corn stunt that's a new phenomenon really related to warmer weather in the northern area and some of the growing area of Argentina. It's really too early to say. It's a watch out. It's an important concern. From a production standpoint, that growing area that's affected by corn stunt is less significant for us. So while there will be some impact at the margin in terms of growing seeds for us, it's really more of what's going to happen again in this upcoming season in terms of farmers' intentions, how much corn will they plant specifically? How much will they shift to other crops, et cetera, that's really to be determined. That's something we're going to be able to provide more color on when we provide our second quarter earnings update, which will be in early August.

Okay. Got it. And then maybe coming back to North America. Obviously, starting the season, USDA expectations for corn acreage down year-over-year. What are you seeing? Is that sort of playing out as expected?

It's pretty much as expected. You recall the USDA number for corn, I think, it's in the 90 million acres for U.S. So around 5% reduction from 2023. That's basically what we're seeing right now. It's probably in that 90 million to 91 million range, maybe 90.5 million as a possibility. But it's tracking pretty much, as you said, pretty much to what the forecast, what the intentions have been. And similarly, with soybeans, that being up on a year-over-year basis, that looks like it's tracking about as expected.

And then the yield expectation, I believe, was about 181 bushels per acre this year. Is that sort of what you're assuming in your guidance for the year? Or...

Well, we'll see. That's another really good one. The good to excellent ratio, and this is early, we'll really know in July, but the good to excellent ratio right now is running ahead of last year on both corn and soybean. So that's reflective. It's very, very early in terms of planting and the actual measurement of that. So we'll have to see. But if we get some heat coming in, we could see yields rise. That's a possibility. On the other hand, if you look at crop prices in terms of what the futures imply in terms of the yield, it continues to be in what I would call a healthy zone. It's down from the highs that we experienced. The recent highs we've experienced, but still in a healthy zone. And we would say farmer incomes to continue to be healthy.

Okay. And then just to circle back in terms of commentary on sort of the current outlook and situation. Is there any shift in the percentage of EBITDA and the revenue in the first half or the second half? Or prior expectations?

Sure. No, very good question. So let me back up a little bit, and I'll just start to give some context, some grounding, particularly for those that may not be as familiar with Corteva. So the guide that we've given for the year of the $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. We're still comfortable with that range. There's a lot of as I said, I will use the term perturbations, weather-related and other things moving around. But one of the things that has characterized the company has been what we call controlling the controllables. Our ability to really manage whether it's the benefits that we're getting from reduced royalty expense on a year-over-year basis. Our cost and productivity benefits in the back half of this year, as you know, we've got some crop protection deflation that's built in. So that range, we continue to be comfortable with that range. There is some variation that we're seeing in terms of the environment that I talked about the second quarter that will impact our view of 2Q or impacting our view of 2Q at this stage. Still sounds crazy, but a lot to go here to close out June. But just to give you some perspectives on that, you kind of go back to that distribution in terms of 1H and 2H. What we had said is a couple of things initially in terms of our guide. We don't provide -- importantly, we don't provide quarterly guidance. But we said for the distribution for 1H to 2H, is that, the first half would be closer to 80% of our full year EBITDA, second half 20%. And that distribution compares to for the average for the period '21, '22 and '23 for that 3-year period of 88%, 12%. So using a historic average during that period is a useful reference. So against that backdrop of 80/20, what that would imply against kind of the midpoint of the guide would be around $2.9 billion, let's call it, for the half. The other thing we stated was that we'd be sort of flat to slightly down. So think of that as sort of low single digits. Today, what we would say that's probably closer to mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis. And the reason is because of the weather factors, the delays in terms of applications, some of the pushout I talked about that we think will now be more a little more 2H than first half. What that implies for the quarter, when you look at the numbers on a year-over-year basis for the quarter is previously, we would have been sort of mid- to high single digits growth for 2Q EBITDA. Now we're looking at low single digits growth in terms of EBITDA. So still growth in the second quarter but at a lesser rate than would have been implied in the first half, second half distribution that I mentioned.

Got it. Yes. Great. And then in terms of the full year on the cost savings front, maybe if you could remind us sort of what you're expecting on the crop side and if there's any sort of changes or updates to the high end or low end of that guidance?

Yes. So another good question. So one of the things that we had stated was broadly, and I think Chuck does this very, very well. Chuck Magro, our CEO, does this very well. is really saying that a big part of our emphasis, our leadership emphasis and you could say a cultural emphasis as a company is on controlling of controllables. And for this year, that's in the $350 million to $450 million range, made up of about $100 million of benefit in royalty expense on a year-over-year basis. And as you know, 2024 -- by the way, that comes off $200 million of royalty expense reduction in 2023 compared to '22. So for 2024, as you know, it's the first year where we're starting to see a more meaningful increase in, if you will, out licensing income. So the royalty benefit not just reduced in-licensing expense. That's going to grow. That's a flywheel that's going to grow, and that's going to increase over the course of the next 3 to 5 years. So as we finish out the decade, as you know, our forecast is to be basically royalty neutral, if you will, by the end of the decade. That's huge for us in terms of our income, but also our EBITDA contribution but also in terms of recognition of how we've really shifted the whole technology lever in our favor. So that's number one in terms of that 2024 controlling the controllables. Number two is we continue to generate meaningful productivity on a year-over-year basis in both of our businesses in our seed and our Crop Protection business. Evidence of the Crop Protection, you'll recall the work that we're doing in terms of the facilities work, our strategic footprint actions which are going to translate to meaningful overtime contribution. That's really an important element of that. So productivity is made up of a number of things. Some of them are larger, more headline kind of items like that and then others are just a series of actions. It's really ingrained in terms of our business model, our operating model. And third notable is the -- I mentioned this earlier, is the ingredient and input cost deflation benefit that we're going to derive in our Crop Protection business this year. We had roughly $50 million of headwind experienced in the first half. In contrast, we're going to about to have $150 million of tailwind in the second half in Crop Protection. Think of that on a year-over-year basis, it's about a 6% reduction in terms of the applicable costs, those raw material ingredient costs, Richard, on a year-over-year basis. So that's important because that's going to continue. The data that we're looking at right now in terms of the procurement data across the board, we're very chlor-alkali dependent. There's a lot of other components, obviously, that contribute to this, but those are all pointing to the positive side in terms of that cost inflation. So those are really -- we'll continue to manage SG&A very, very effectively and aggressively. The way we're looking at it right now. If you kind of set aside our acquisitions, you recall, the successful Biologicals acquisition that we closed on 2 of them in March of 2023. If you set aside the incremental SG&A associated with those acquisitions in terms of comparables. And you set aside the bad debt accrual because that just -- we just measure that on a year-over-year basis at an average historical accrual rate and then we adjust it over the course of the year. Last year, we had very favorable receivables, very favorable in terms of bad debt growth. When you adjust for those 2, we're basically flat, which is impressive when you think about the inflationary environment, labor and wage pressure inflation, the resumption of travel, marketing spend, all the other things that are going into that to be able to hold those costs. So that's another significant element when we talk about the overall cost equation for the company.

Okay. Great. And then on the seed cost side, I guess, if that's tied to the corn price and that should be down year-over-year.

We will. We're not going to see -- you're not going to see favorability in 2025. So Richard's question about seed costs and kind of the timing of that and if you will, the in contrast to what we're experiencing this year on crop protection deflation, this year, we do have some increased corn seed costs. Some of that is just related to the fact that we've got FIFO accounting, as you recall, multiyear hedging. So there's this sort of delay in terms of when you see the benefit of lower commodity costs that flow through in terms of cost of goods sold on the seed business. The other thing we guided for is a little bit higher cost in Latin America, specifically Brazil, in terms of seed cost of goods sold for the second half. And that just has to do with the cost of production that we have in yields that we had in terms of the makeup of the current layer of inventory that will flow through seed COGS for Latin America for the latter part of this year. But in 2025, it's a really good point because 2025, 2026, we'll start to see that benefit on seed. We also anticipate some additional productivity benefits on seen from a number of actions that are taking place there. So should -- both of those should obviously contribute to margin accretion in the seed business at '25 and '26.

And that might be a good segue to 2025 in terms of you've provided sort of guidance couple of years ago at your major Investor Day, you've been able to maintain your target EBITDA margin, 21%, 23%, despite challenging revenue. So maybe if you could remind us sort of what are the key drivers of maintaining that. You talked about the controlling the controllables, but if there's anything else in '25...

Sure. Well, obviously, a key part of that is the seed pricing which is really a price for value. Each year, we're introducing a number of new hybrids and varieties. I think it's 300 this year in terms of the seed business. that's critical to us in terms of the value that we're bringing to the marketplace and again, that price for value. I mean it's notable, and we talked about this earlier, but that we had 6% pricing up in the seed business in the first quarter. Now expectations for the year would be in the low single digits. We think that's kind of a run rate sort of expectation for the business. but it's all about hybrids, it's all about advancing technology in that business. So that is one of those key levers, Richard, that we talked about. Number two is on the Crop Protection side. the -- 2 things there. One is new products, which we continue to bring to the marketplace. And despite the headwinds that the industry has experienced, new products have continued to do better than average. So in terms of both revenue as well as pricing and margin, they continue to be better. And the other one, as I mentioned earlier, is our Biologicals business. And that franchise is doing quite well. So -- and we're just continuing to build and strengthen that from the standpoint of our -- the platform, and that's the term we would use now, the platform that we've built in terms of the Biologicals business, which includes the, call it, the commercial and customer-facing because it's a different model. It's much more of an education and influencing model that's being utilized there. So we're really leveraging that capability. The second thing is on the R&D side, where we bring a rich history and capability in terms of microbial technology. We're now bringing that to bear on the Biologicals franchise and Biologicals business. That innovation coupled with the know-how, product know-how and capabilities that exist with both the Stoller and Symborg acquisitions, that's also a strength. So that would be the other thing that I would cite is new products and the Biologicals businesses in terms of the contribution that we see. In addition to those items we talked about earlier on the controlling of the controllables. Those are the key drivers.

Right. Right. Maybe now might be a good time to sort of transition to, I guess, cash flow generation, what you are planning to do with it. You obviously have done some major acquisitions with Stoller and Symborg. So maybe if you want to talk about sort of overall capital allocation, you're planning to buy back $1 billion in shares. So maybe just touch on that.

Yes. So I mentioned that through the 2019 through 2023, we've bought back around $3.2 billion of shares. So another $1 billion and targeted for 2024. We did $250 million, you recall, in the first quarter of this year. If you look at our cash generation, our target, the guide we've given, we're comfortable with as well is in the range of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for 2024, call it, $1.750 billion at the midpoint. Given our EBITDA guide -- so in the neighborhood of 50% in terms of conversion, free cash flow divided by EBITDA, and that's the measure we use. If we use operating earnings, if you will, the denominator of the EPS calculation, would be more in the 80% to 90% range in terms of our conversion. So -- but we use EBITDA as the metric. So in terms of utilization for this year, some dividend share buyback. Our dividend, as you know, is an important, we think, foundational item. It doesn't define us, but we have grown dividend with earnings over the years. We've compounded around 7% per annum in terms of the dividend. But what's really meaningful for us is dividend and then reinvestment for growth. And what we target broadly is about 50-50 in terms of that distribution. If you look at the time period 2019 again through 2023, it works out to be more like 60-40, 60% to shareholders -- 65% to shareholders, 35% to 40% to growth, which would be a combination of capital spending, which this year will be about roughly $600 million of CapEx and what we've done in terms of acquisitions and the 2 notable obviously, are the Symborg and Stoller acquisitions, total of about $1.5 billion. But going forward, it's really looking at balance across the 2 of those. There's nothing really sizable or significant in terms of acquisitions that we would say is realizable at this point in time. So we're going to continue to target things that are technology-based, that are add-on and value creating. And if you will, accelerates in terms of the innovation and what we can bring to the marketplace. So it's largely Sam Eathington, as you know, our Chief Technology Officer, working with Brook Cunningham, our Head of Business Development and Strategy and the combination of things that they're reviewing and doing proactively that will complement our existing core and particularly now the building business that we have, the growing business that we have in the biological sector.

Okay. That might be a good opportunity to highlight your upcoming Investor Day. I know you can't give away all the secrets yet, but any preview insights so you can sort of talk about what you expect. I know you're going to give a 2027 target, and that's going to be one.

Yes. So we're excited because the last venue and Richard, it was great that you were able to attend in Iowa. That was a spectacular, I thought, opportunity for us. We have...

You are going to New York this year...

This year we're going to go to New York. Yes, this year are going to be on the opposite and the spectrum. So we're really looking forward to this. If you think about sort of the breakdown of the messaging and the time allocation and Kim will have to correct me on this later. But the way I think about it, number one, is really an update on strategy. And our vision for the future and why we think Corteva is very, very well positioned to execute against that future. We think this is tremendously, despite ups and downs and as I use the phrase perturbations in the ag industry and the ag input and technology business. The fact is the long term continues to remain very, very attractive and very attractive fundamentals. So we think we're very well positioned. So Chuck will really lead that discussion, really focused on strategy. Brook is going to lead a discussion of the kind of the future of ag. Brook Cunningham, our Head of Strategy and Business Development. She's going to take us through her thoughts on the investable spaces and why we are very well positioned for those. We've used the phrase in the past frontier markets. But it's really things now that are becoming much more realizable in terms of -- we think in terms of execution that will really fit with both the technology that we have, but also the sustainability and the growth in terms of agricultural technology applications for both feed and for fuel for the future. So that's going to be a very important element of it. You're obviously going to hear from our business leaders, from Tim and Robert for seed and Crop Protection, respectively, about their fundamentals, but particularly a focus on how they're delivering commercially, the commercial excellence, but also operational excellence. I think that's going to be outstanding. And then really, one of the significant highlights of Investor Day again is going to be from our R&D team led by Sam. And so we want to do innovation showcase. Now it's not going to be the same as being in the fields of Iowa because we're going to be in a ballroom in the Plaza in New York, but we're going to bring some things to life. We think in a way that's going to be very, very exciting, [ rich ] for people to see and touch and understand about how we're driving new growth and new growth technologies. An example will be highlighted on gene editing and the future of gene editing. And what we see is some of the some of the opportunities for literally breakthrough there that can represent a new frontier using that term again, a new frontier for us and for the industry. So given the leading position that we have there in terms of our research, our patents, our affiliations, et cetera. it will be, I think, an exciting time to on the technology side. So that will be the end of -- towards the end of the day, but that will be a very important component of the day where we're going to spend enough time.

Okay. Looking forward to it. Maybe we have time for questions from the audience, if any. If not, I can continue. Okay. So maybe just a couple of final loose ends in terms of sort of -- general sort of impact on your [ software ] industry, the Dicamba ruling in -- by the EPA, that probably is not impact your -- that doesn't impact your business, but has it impacted your thoughts on guidance for next year in terms of potential opportunities.

Yes. It certainly has, as we know, we've been -- it's well publicized, obviously, is that it has an impact. And this is the whole drift issue on the EPA ruling and the judge's ruling in Arizona. This has not impacted 2024, as you know. The -- basically, the way the ruling worked, as you know, is whatever was committed to in the production was allowed. So for 2025, it's really TBD. It's too uncertain. At this stage, really remains to be seen what happens with this ruling going forward and what the application will be there in terms of the regulatory framework. We're positioned. We have the ability. We have the capacity. We can certainly mean that market need an opportunity that presents.

Okay. Great. So I guess with last minute or 2 here. Anything that you wanted to basically convey to investors in terms of maybe something that maybe some investors have gotten wrong or they just don't understand about Corteva, sort of strategy and sort of maybe closing remarks?

Well, I think in closing, I think I would just say, and it's a little bit of the theme that we're going to talk about at Investor Day, is, we're very much focused on managing for today, delivering against expectations, delivering for the quarter, for the year, but also the investments that we're making, the investments we're making in terms of innovation, our commercial excellence, our operational excellence, 3 very important legs on our stool. Those are things that we're doing with an eye also for the future, for the intermediate term and for the longer term. So I think one of the things, again, just to share with you, and I'm very enthusiastic. We're all very enthusiastic about this in November, is that sort of that planning continuum that it's not just the next 12 to 24, even 36 months. It's also looking out in terms of the future of ag, the future of Corteva, why we think we can continue to be very well positioned, why we think we can be a tremendous investment opportunity in this environment. So I think that's something that characterizes the company. I think it's very important for investors to understand. Each day, we need to be measured against -- performance needs to be measured against the commitments and expectations we've made, but we also need to continue to build, to invest, have the quality of the leadership team and the support of our Board of Directors, et cetera, to deliver value over time. And so we're also committed to that. And I think that's a very important feature about the company.

Great. And with that, we'll end it here.

Thank you very much, Richard.

Thank you very much.