CSN Mineração S.A. (CMIN3) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to CSN Mineracao's conference call to present results for the fourth quarter 2022. We have with us today the company's executive officers. This event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We have a simultaneous webcast that may be accessed through CSN Mineracao's Investor Relations website at ri.csnmineracao.com.br, where the presentation is also available. The replay of this event will be available for 1 week. And once again, you can flip through the slides at your own convenience. As a reminder, we would like to state that the forward-looking statements herein are mere expectations or trends based on the current assumptions and opinions of the company management. They could differ materially from future events as they do not constitute projections. In fact, actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements because of several factors such as overall and economic conditions in Brazil and other countries, interest rates and exchange rate levels, future rescheduling or prepayment of debt pegged to foreign currencies, protectionist measures in the U.S., Brazil and other countries, changes in laws and regulations and general competitive factors at a global, regional or national basis. We would now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Oliva, the CFO and Investor Relations Officer, who will present the operational and financial results of CSN Mineracao during the period. Mr. Oliva, you may proceed.

Good morning. I would like to thank all of you for your presence at this call. Now let's go on to the highlights for the period. We had the best quarter of the year in terms of sales volume, along with a positive result of the prices realized and EBITDA of BRL 1.785 (sic) [ BRL 1,785 ] million in the quarter with a margin surpassing 50% mark. Between dividends, we distributed BRL 4.96 billion although this was a year with a solid cash position and low leverage. In ESG, the company has completed 10 years of activity with zero fatalities and a reduced number of accidents by 30%. Additionally, the company is moving forward in terms of its diversity agenda, reaching 21% of women in the workforce this year. In the next slide, we have a production with a drop of 3% in the quarter because of seasonality and the rainfall, but a growth of 35% vis-a-vis the same period last year. For the year, we had a drop of 7%. Of course, the results could have been better at the beginning of last year, but they were impacted by the rainfalls above the historical average for the year and the impact of the projects at the Central Plant, and that is why the results were somewhat lower than expected. We had a drop of 7% in iron ore reaching 4.7 million tons. Now this happens jointly with an improvement in prices and because of the iron ore coming from China, which is low grade. When it comes to our sales figures, we had an increase of 7% for the quarter, reaching 9.7 million tons and a growth of 26% vis-a-vis the same period last year. With this, for the year, the company delivered a stable sales volume compared to the year 2021. Our FOB net revenue had a growth of 30%, reaching $70 a ton, explained by an improvement in the price of iron ore at the end of the quarter and a drop in our costs with freight for the fourth quarter. In the next slide, we break down the price realization. And here, it is worthwhile pointing out that although the Platts has dropped $4 in the quarter, we had a growth of 30% in unit net revenue, basically explained by a positive impact of almost $10 and $10 of difference in previous periods in the QP basket and a drop of $4 in freight, therefore, leading to the positive results that you can see when it comes to the volumes and future costs. We ended the year with 6.5 million tons at $111 for Platts and an FOB of $70.71. Now this could market moment and it points towards a higher increase, means we will have a positive impact in 2023 vis-a-vis last year. When it comes to cost of goods sold, we end the quarter with an impact of 3% in absolute numbers. The adjusted EBITDA was BRL 1.785 (sic) [ BRL 1,785 ] million with a margin of 50.8% for the quarter. For the year, the company reached BRL 6 billion in EBITDA. When we speak about adjusted EBITDA, I would like to underscore some points, an increase in Platts at the end of the semester, a drop in the freight cost, lower volumes sold and of course, the provisions for prices that offset the increase of the price sold during the period. We go on to the next slide, where we show you our total investments of BRL 223 million in the fourth quarter, very linked to the operational work and the CapEx was BRL 1.2 billion. We expect an aggressive growth beginning this year as our products, especially P15, continue to move forward. When it comes to our net working capital, we had an expressive variation, BRL 144 million to negative to BRL 1 million positive. This can be explained by an increase in accounts receivable, also impacted by a valuation at the end of the quarter. To speak about our amortization schedule, we had BRL 6 million during 2022, ending with a good cash position, sufficient to cover our amortizations for the next coming years of our debt. When we speak about free cash flow, we ended the quarter with BRL 105 million, explained by an increase in the net working capital, offsetting the EBITDA growth that we had for the quarter. We expect a better realization for our cash already in the first quarter. When we speak about our ESG performance, it's important to speak about the decharacterization work in the Vigia Dam that will be concluded this year. We are facing severe red tape. And this is what we call the decharacterization in mining, but the work is underway. In terms of governance, we have had an increase in our water security from B to B -- and water security from C to B. We have had an increase of 100% in women going from 18% to 21.8% in the fourth quarter. In workplace safety, once again, we highlight the 10 years without (sic) [ with ] zero fatalities and a drop of 30% in the number of accidents when compared to 2021. In environmental management, although we're just at the beginning of the project, we are going to share with the market, interesting data, 30% higher productivity of our electric trucks with 2 trucks that we have in the mine. Now we're quite optimistic about the outlook for the future because of this, and we're quite enthusiastic with the preliminary results of this. I would like to conclude before opening for questions by speaking after a very difficult year operationally to refer to our sales with an increase of 20% this year, a scenario of a drop of costs below what we delivered last year, a marginal improvement in quality. We're working with opportunity products, but we are going to head towards improving the quality. So we have very good outlooks for the year 2023. And I would like to mention that with me we have Eneas; the Company Superintendent, Otto, the Project Director and the Commercial Director; and Elena, who is our Director of Diversity. Well, having said this, we would like to open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question from Guilherme Rosito from Bank of America.

I have 2 questions. First, referring to volume. How is this impacting you because you already had a guidance, and we saw some atypical movement at the beginning of the year? And what is it that you have observed in the first quarter, which is your outlook?

Guilherme, thank you for the question. Yes, we have had a period with very heavy rainfall in the fourth quarter. We had the heaviest rainfalls in the last 4 years. But despite this, we had the expected performance. We expect to have a first quarter that will be expressively better than the same period last year. And we will have more rainfall, of course, in the first quarter. This will have an impact on volume. It will have an impact on the unit cost. But for the rest of the year, we foresee an improvement not only in volume, but also in terms of cost. And we will adhere to our guidance, Guilherme. We're quite confident of this that we will deliver our volume guidance at the lowest cost and, of course, the best possible quality.

Our next question is from Ricardo Monegaglia from Morgan Stanley.

Let's go back to the issue of cost. If you could give us more color of what caused that contraction vis-a-vis the fourth quarter, the price of ton dropping somewhat after it was flat in the third quarter. And if you could offer us some guidance regarding that, which is approximately $21. It would be interesting for us to understand which will be the cost evolution. My second question refers to quality. You spoke about enhancing the quality in 2023. If you could perhaps share with us a range of figures, your broad figures, which is the quality of iron ore at present in the fourth quarter. And if you could give us an idea of the magnitude of sales for 2023.

Well, thank you for the questions, Ricardo. Regarding the evolution of C1, there is an evolution of $9, basically due to 2 factors: a better volume of production, an impact of $1.4 on the unit cost and $0.4 that refer to an increase of the variable component, basically explained by the increase in cost, 0.8, 0.9, therefore, our seasonal factors that have an impact on price. We don't have a guidance here, Ricardo, but we do have a very positive vision for the year 2023. And the fact that we have better prices should allow us to deliver better results. Now when it comes to the quality in this quarter, in the fourth quarter, we had 60.67% of silica, 7.9% in the iron ore. This represents an improvement compared to the rest of the year, 55%, and for 2023, we hope to have an enhancement in the margin. Of course, nothing highly relevant, but this will also help us to improve our price realization. I don't have a percentage that I can share with you, but an improvement at the Central Plant. And of course, this will also have an impact on our project for spirals and all of this will support our quality enhancement. Now when we think of the cost of opportunity in a scenario of high prices, we have some very attractive offers for the company. But the change of quality and production will become ever more intense and the market will be able to observe this, especially in the low-grade products.

Our next question comes from Thiago Lofiego from Bradesco BBI.

Well, most of the questions have been answered. I still have one here referring to your commercial area and how it's doing vis-a-vis the market. Which are your expectations, especially regarding the short term and what is happening with the P15 project, the volumes in March month.

Thank you for the questions. Now regarding the commercial area, we do have a very constructive vision from China. The prices have surprised us in China, we can reach an average of 87%. And the margins in January were approximately 20% positive margins. And you can observe the PMI is also improving with positive margins. And there's an announcement of a greater issue of debt titles regionally because of the infrastructure work in the country. And there is a situation where the family savings have increased a great deal during the period. And as the confidence levels improve, we will observe a boom in consumption, and we hope this will represent a boom in demand, creating a positive cycle. Now the inventories in Chinese steel industry are at 18%, quite low, and this leads us to believe that they're going to have to restock, which would be natural because there will be an increase in housing. And this should have an impact on the short-term demand and of course, on the prices of iron ore. Now the products that were offered from Australia with low alumina level should strengthen the Brazilian steel throughout the year 2023. Now regarding the P15, it is foreseen to enter into operation in the fourth quarter of 2025. When it comes to the volumes expected in the 12 subsequent months, we have a forecast for a ramp-up that should be at approximately 9.5%. We're being conservative. It could reach 10% and for the projection of volumes in 2026, we should continue perhaps a straight line when it comes to volume with an increase in the installed capacity during the year.

Our next question comes from Gabriel Simoes from Goldman Sachs.

I would like to better understand your price realization factors, if you can give us more color. I don't know what happened during the quarter, perhaps you had more discount. But how does the realization compare to previous periods. From the data we see here, it was higher for the quarter. My second question refers to that scenario of capacity with P15 going forward. Which is your forecast for CapEx and what's going to happen with the company leverage because of the new investments?

Now when it comes to the price realization, we have an enormous impact when we have an improvement in prices during the end of the period. We had a high volume at the disposal of future periods. And this impacts the balance for the last month in terms of prices. Now this increase in prices helps us support the price realization. We also had a large number of cargoes sold in December disproportionally, so during the month, helping us in this price realization. Now if you compare the rest of the sales for the quarter or the previous quarter, it stands at 0.7. And here, it stood at $10.3, which was the impact of the price increase throughout the quarter, especially in December compared to the previous quarter. In previous periods, the impact of the previous quarter, it was almost $12 negative. This quarter -- fourth quarter, it was only $2. There was a drop of prices initially, and this improved throughout the quarter. I remember that at the Investor Day, our vision for prices was of $20 this year. This was one of our most optimistic vision. It ended up being conservative vis-a-vis what we see at present. When it comes to CapEx, it would be BRL 3.8 million -- BRL 66 million. Now for this year, we're going to end up below that average BRL 2.5 million in mining, very much in line with the schedule of our projects presented by CSN Mineracao.

[Operator Instructions] As we have no further questions, we would like to end the question-and-answer session. I will return the floor to Mr. Oliva, the CFO and Executive Director for IR for the closing remarks. Mr. Oliva, you may proceed, sir.

I would like to end by once again thanking you for your attendance at our conference call. Because of the very strong rainfall and the impact in our Central Plant, we began the year 2023 with a forecast of increasing our sales by 20% and enhancement in quality, especially because of our stocking, which will help us to have a volume above 40 million tons, which is a record for the company. And because of all of this, we have a positive vision going forward into 2023. Thank you once again for your attention.

Thank you. Now the conference call for CSN Mineracao ends here. You can now disconnect and have a very good day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]