Cummins Inc. (CMI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Analyst Day. I'm Chris Clulow, Vice President of Investor Relations, and Participating with me today are Tom Linebarger, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jen Rumsey, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer; and Amy Davis, President of our New Power business. We'll all be available to answer questions at the conclusion of this presentation. Before we start, please note that some of the information provided in this presentation will consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Including statements regarding our forecast, guidance, preliminary results, expectations, hopes, beliefs and intentions on strategies regarding the future. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties. More information on the risks and uncertainties related to the forward-looking statements is included in the slide attached to this presentation as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly in the risk factors in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, and we refer you to the appendix of this presentation for the reconciliation to our U.S. GAAP financial metrics. A copy of today's presentation is available on our website in the Investor Relations section of cummins.com. With that out of the way, I'll turn it over to Tom to kick us off. Thank you.

Well, thank you, Chris, and thank you for that riveting introduction. I am really excited to welcome you here today. In an example of the best-laid plans, we had delayed our investor conference from November to today so that we could all be in person and enjoy each other's company again. And then, of course, with the Omicron variant, we had to change that yet again to make sure we kept everyone safe. We are going to do our best, though, to make you feel like you're part of this investor conference. And we are really excited to present our long-term strategy, our plans to you because Cummins has never been in a better place in our history. So let me start with the most important strategic point I want to make to you today. And you'll hear it throughout our presentation. But the important point to make to you is we all know climate change is real and happening and impacting our planet. There is not a more important thing for any of us regardless of our role in the economy and the government to do than address climate change. And that means our industry has to change. We are a big user of fossil fuels. We are a big generator of carbon in our industry. The commercial and industrial market has to decarbonize. The good news for Cummins is that decarbonization is a growth opportunity for us, and we are uniquely positioned, uniquely positioned to capture the benefit of decarbonization both in growth and returns every step of the way. And that's really what we're going to try to show you today. We will win in this market because we have the capabilities that it takes to help customers get through the decarbonization process and to do so successfully, and we can again sell and make returns at every step. So let me talk to you about the elements. I'll go into these in more detail, but at a summary level. We start with innovative technologies. We have the technologies to make current products more fuel efficient and, therefore generate less carbon. We have also invested in a portfolio of technologies that puts us at the forefront of zero carbon emissions technologies for commercial industrial vehicles. Secondly, we have the partnerships with customers in the market today, the ones that are winning, in the truck market, in the construction markets, in the mining markets, All the markets that need to decarbonize, we are already working with those customers. Those customers know and believe that we can deliver technology solutions to them. What's more, we are forming new partnerships in new areas of the economy that also needed to decarbonize with the same kinds of technologies. So we have new partnerships and existing partnerships that will give us an advantage. Third, we have the application knowledge to apply these new technologies in a way that is economically viable for customers. The new technologies are exciting, but they need to work for customers in the market every day. Our customers use their products to complete their business. They have to be up all the time. They don't park them in the garage at night and use it when they need to, to take their kids to soccer. They need them to run their business. They have to be up all the time. And our -- we know how to do that. Fourth, we are, of course an incumbent, and you might think that gives us a disadvantage. But in fact, it is an advantage in the following sense. We have the staying power, the investment capability to lead this transition through a decades long period. It will take a while for these transitions to happen, and we can continue to invest throughout that transition. What's more, we have a service and sales network throughout the globe that positions us to support these customers unlike any other company. But we've also created this unique structure with the New Power division that gives us the agility of a start-up. You'll hear from Amy. She has the flexibility to move and pivot as the market changes. It's a unique setup for Cummins, and I think is ideally suited to the challenge in front of us. And lastly, we have a history of developing talented, capable, mature leaders. And there's no time we'll need them more than the present. I'll talk more about that. So let's get into it. As I -- before I kick off our agenda and who's going to speak to you, I want to say that I feel so fortunate to work for this company at this moment in time. Our mission statement about powering a more prosperous world is all about sustainability. We've always wanted to find a way to keep the economy moving, but to do it by consuming less resources, having a more positive impact on our communities. And now it's exactly when we need that -- to put that mission statement to life. So I feel fortunate to work at a company where our mission statement and the needs of our economy, of our markets are aligned so closely. And I think it motivates every employee inside Cummins today. I can't proceed any further, though, without, of course, commenting on our recent acquisition. All of us at Cummins are incredibly excited about this. We're excited to welcome Meritor employees into the Cummins family, and we think that this acquisition drives so much opportunity and synergy for the two companies. And I've summarized it in 3 simple ideas. One is you know decarbonization is what Cummins is about. You know we need to move these new technologies forward. The combination of Meritor's capabilities and Cummins' capabilities pushes us forward unlike any other strategic step we could take at this time. Amy will talk a lot more about that, but we will be able to introduce more economically viable powertrain solutions into the commercial industrial markets sooner because of our acquisition of Meritor. Secondly, we think we can help grow Meritor's core business. We are everywhere in the world selling powertrain products to the customers that are winning in every region. And so we'll leverage our sales and service and customer relationships to further grow Meritor's axle and brake business. That will be good for Meritor employees, that will be good for our employees. That will be good for our communities and it will be great for shareholders. The third thing we've got is an amazingly compelling set of synergies, financial synergies. SG&A synergies, supply chain synergies, footprint synergies, all the things it takes to make a deal work like this. Its an ideal combination, we're really excited about it. And you'll hear more from Jen and Amy about that. So let me quickly jump to our agenda before I kick into some of my material. Three of us will present. You know that I have been the purveyor of our strategy for some time. I'm really proud of what we have achieved, and I think past is precedent. I think our ability to deliver returns throughout the cycles, throughout the challenges of our industry tells you something about what we're going to do in the future. So I want to talk to you a little bit about that. And then I want to interest Jen Rumsey, our President and Chief Operating Officer. She'll talk a little bit about how decarbonization is going to affect our industry and then how we're going to react to that to put us in the lead. And then I'm going to have Amy Davis, the Head of New Power business. She'll talk through what we're doing to make sure that we can help decarbonize our industry and how we can earn returns along the way as we do that. And again, she'll be able to put a finer point on what we get when we -- from the acquisition of Meritor and how that advances our capabilities. So with that, I'm going to take you back a little bit. Because as I said, I'm really proud of what we achieved, and I think the way you can tell how we're going to do is by looking back and see what we've done. This chart shows our sales over the last 20 years. And you look at Cummins, we're the red line there. And of course, you know we're a cyclical company, so it goes up and it goes down. But what you see is a steady 6 -- over 6% compound annual growth rate in sales, and you see that against an industry that's growing something like half that. You see peers are lower, you see the industry lower and you see the GDP lower. How did we do that? A consistent leadership in technology allowed us to add more content to win more market share to expand regionally, and in all that time, while impacting the emissions and the planet better. That's where I was saying, our mission statement and our strategy align to give returns to shareholders, to give excellent products to customers and, of course, to make our communities better. We saw it in the past. You're going to see it in the future. I want to show a little bit about what regional expansions meant to us. This is Cummins in year 2000, largely a U.S. company, largely an engine business. Now let's look at us 20 years later. We now have regional scale in every single region in the world. That means no matter what region is growing, what region is shrinking, we are able to grow our business. And here's what excites me the most about this chart. Of course, this is not by accident. But if you look at this chart and you look at the size of us in the regions and our sales growth over that period, then look at the profit line, so sales has grown a lot over that period, 3.5x. But profit has grown double that. By growing profit, that's how we can generate returns. That's how we can finance the investments we need to sustain this kind of leadership. Let's go to the next one. So you all know that return on invested capital is sort of my mantra. It's a thing that's led to performance objectives for a long time. It's because I think in an industry like ours, where investment is necessary and overinvestment is bad for your shareholders, ROIC has been the one metric to make sure that we always make the right level of investments to lead and return cash to shareholders that we don't need to invest. If you look over these 4-year periods, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, our return on invested capital is first quartile in every period. Again, not by accident. That's by the leadership and strategy of the company formed over a long period of time to generate returns just like this. Let's go to the next one. Another thing I think you've heard me talk about that I'm very proud of is that every time the cycle occurs, people ask me, what are you going to be at the peak of the cycle? What's your peak earnings? And I say, our peak earnings for this cycle will be this. Next cycle, they'll be higher. I never think in terms of peak earnings because our company shows, cycle after cycle, we do better. We raise the bar in upturns, we raise the bar in downturns. And we never waste a cycle as an opportunity to get a lead on competitors. We get leaner in down cycles, we grow faster in up-cycles. That's so we can generate these kind of returns for our shareholders. I talked about margins. What margins allow us to do is generate more cash. And that's -- and cash is what we can use to make the investments we need to make, and we -- as you know, to keep the lead in innovative technologies, we need to make investments. And of course, we can return cash to shareholders. But both those mean we need to generate stronger profits every single year. So this chart shows you we continue to generate more cash from operations every single period. In fact, I look back at this chart and think 10 years ago when we were generating something like $1 billion in cash from operations from our -- each year. And now, today, more like $3 billion from cash from operations, just over that 10-year period. It's that $3 billion versus $1 billion that gives us the power to make the investments we need to make for the decarbonization and to continue to win in our core markets. And of course, we can use some of that cash after those investments to return cash to shareholders. And we have done so consistently. We consistently, through share buybacks and dividends, make sure that we return cash to shareholders so you are always earning a return at every step of our cycle. That's what I mean by past is present. With us, what you're going to get is decarbonization and growth and all the things that you want, but you're going to get it while earning a return. And I think we're one of the few companies that can offer that to you. And speaking of investments, over the last period, we have made a significant investment in our New Power division. You'll hear from Amy what that's meant so far. But I think we've established a position that is unique in our commercial industrial sectors where we are -- we will be able to help our industry decarbonize. And we've done that by spending nearly $1 billion. And if you think about what the core business has done over that period. So if you take that $1 billion and you remove it for just a second, the core business has performed amazingly well. So we have been able to generate the returns I talked about while still building a brand-new business that's leading at the forefront, not by raising capital with no earnings, none of those things, by generating returns every single year and still making these investments. We're going to be the only company in our industry that you're going to be able to do that with. I want to close on something that I've not really presented to you before. I'm kind of kicking myself for that. At Cummins, we believe, and I think many of you know this, that there -- that to be a great company, to sustain a great company, you have to have great leaders. And at times like this where the industry is changing, things are moving quickly, leadership is more important than ever. And the way you get great leaders is by investing in them. And at Cummins, we have invested in leaders significantly. I've dedicated nearly 15 years to making sure that we invest in leaders just to demonstrate we put our money where our mouth is. Through good times and bad, we invest in leadership development. In fact, over those last 15 years, we've generated an intensive leadership development curriculum. We've -- and I would just say that the investment we've made, yes, there's some money in it. But really what it is, is people's time. I participate in those individual and team programs myself. I spent nearly 3 or 4 days a month on those programs, full time, in the room with those leaders. And I know those leaders. I know their strengths, their weaknesses. I know what they're made of. I know what they need to improve. And that kind of investment, person to person, and Jen and Amy have done exactly the same thing, that kind of investment, person to person, is how you get the quality of leadership we have at this company. And our leadership culture, by the way, is not just about the individual technical skills. So we're asking leaders to be inspiring and motivating to people. How are you going to get a Gen Z to care about this company online? And the answer is you have to have what it takes to inspire and motivate people. You need to understand. You have to be self-aware of your own strength and weaknesses. You need emotional maturity as well as technical skill. And these leaders have that. And that's not by accident. That's long-term work and development. And given the technology transition in our industry, we're going to be leaning heavily on these leaders. And so now that investment is going to pay off. So for you, as an investor, I want you to know. You're not just getting great technology you're not just getting great footprint and strategy. What you're getting is the best leadership capability in our industry right now. With that, let me turn it over to Jen Rumsey, Jen, welcome to the stage.

All right. Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Tom. It's my pleasure to be with you all today. And as you heard from Tom, and I'll talk more about, decarbonization is a growth opportunity for Cummins. And I'm incredibly excited to be a part of this amazing leadership team at this important stage for the company. One of my main motivations for coming to Cummins was that I wanted to innovate and develop solutions that matter, that made a positive difference to the environment and to customers in the business that's serving some of the world's most important applications. I actually started my career working for a fuel cell start-up company. And while the technology was interesting, after a couple of years, I realized it was a long way from commercial viability and really mattering to a customer. And I've spent my now 22-year career at Cummins, leveraging my technical background and passion for building and motivating strong teams that enable our customers and our business to thrive. And we've made a big difference. During that time, we've reduced NOx and particulate emissions from our products by more than 90%. And more recently, we've turned our focus to reducing CO2 from those same products. And at the same time, we've grown our business and improved profitability. And we're at a unique point in this company and this challenge that we have in front of us to decarbonize our industry to continue to enable success of our customers and our business. So today, I want to talk a little bit more about what we see decarbonization looking like for our industry. And I'll share why these key capabilities that Tom talked about that we've built over decades position us to win in our base business as well as our New Power business. In our base business, we have a broad portfolio of products and technologies, strong customer relationships around the world that will enable us to continue to grow in our core markets even as they start to transition away from engine-based solutions. We'll continue to invest in technology and technology leadership that will be important to decarbonize our industry and, in some cases, extend beyond that transition. This will include investing in market-leading engine platforms, clean efficient diesel engines as well as low and zero carbon engine-based solutions and also additional components that are important to optimize performance and emissions of the powertrain. Our installed base will continue to grow in the field that will fuel further aftermarket growth, and we'll manage our business to continue to increase profitability, generate cash and returns for our shareholders. We're also going to leverage these same capabilities in our New Power business. And here, we've built a broad portfolio of zero emission solutions: fuel cell, electrolyzer and key components in the battery electric power solutions. We are well positioned with these capabilities and the partnerships that we continue to build around the world to expand and grow the business, replicating our position in our existing businesses as they move to the zero emission solutions and also growing in adjacent spaces, leveraging these same technologies. and with New Power, will sustain Cummins growth well into the future. So Cummins is best positioned to lead when you take these key capabilities and what they give us and our people around the world. Destination Zero is our strategy for decarbonizing our industry. And it requires our entire business. We can't wait to start advancing towards a zero-based solution. You must reduce CO2 from our engines that are broadly available and capable of meeting our customers' needs today, while also advancing and accelerating adoption of technologies that can get us all the way to zero. So I want to take a few minutes now to show you a video that talks more about the importance of this work and the commitment of our people on this journey to Zero. [Presentation]

I'm reminded of the importance of this work and motivated every time I see that video. So now I want to talk more about Destination Zero and why Cummins is uniquely positioned to win in our markets as we take on this journey towards zero. We serve a wide array of different customer, markets and applications, and they face unique challenges as they decarbonize. This chart you see here gives an indication of some of the differences when you consider hours they operate per year as well as typical power requirements. There's really 2 key takeaways for you from this chart, though. First, you see we serve a wide variety of applications with different needs. This means that there's not one solution that will meet all these different customer needs. Second, in most cases, our applications are different than passenger cars and how they're used, which you see here, and also the environment in which they operate, the life expectations and what motivates customer buying decisions. As we think about decarbonization, there will be multiple factors that will pace the adoption of the zero emissions technologies. First is infrastructure. It requires a significant infrastructure investment to support these zero emission solutions. When you think about a charging infrastructure to support battery electric solutions and a hydrogen infrastructure required to support fuel cell and hydrogen engine-based solutions, and the infrastructure itself must also be decarbonized. Second is economics. The cost on these technologies today is high. It requires scaling them up to bring costs down and, in many cases, further innovation and advancement to reduce cost. Customer adoption is also a factor. And certainly, our customers think about infrastructure availability as well as economics. Most of our customers count on these products as a core part of their business. They simply can't afford to pay more for a zero emission solution, and they need to be confident that, that solution will reliably meet their needs. And the last factor is regulation, which is really going to be key to driving advancement on these other factors in creating certainty on the need to put infrastructure in place and scale up these technologies and also start to drive economic parity between legacy solutions and these new solutions by creating incentives and things like carbon tax that can put a price on carbon. So with that as a backdrop, I want to talk more about 3 different applications that we serve and give you an idea of some of the challenges and differences that they face as they work to decarbonize. The first application I want to talk about is a transit bus. And this is an example of a market that is starting to move now towards battery electric solutions. The picture you see here is an Eldorado bus using a Cummins battery electric powertrain. With the transit bus application, they have a relatively known duty cycle in a range that can be supported by today's battery electric range capability. They return to a home base in the evenings and can be -- you can put a charging infrastructure in place and plan routes that allow the time needed to recharge the bus. A lot of municipalities are motivated to introduce zero emissions technologies, and there's incentives that are available to them to help them do that, which helps offset the higher initial cost. The next market I want to talk about is the mining market, and you see here this picture a haul truck. For those of you that may not be familiar with this application, if you were to put me in that picture, I would be a fraction of the size of the wheel. So these have incredibly high load demands and operate for long hours in some of the world's most extreme environments, very dirty, extreme temperature as well as high altitude requirements. So it's going to take more time and effort to decarbonize these solutions. That said, many large mining companies and the OEMs that are providing equipment to them have made commitments to decarbonize, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. And they're actively working on solutions that they can introduce to lower their CO2 impact. We expect it will take a range of solutions over time and ultimately see fuel cells as being a key long-term solution for this market that allows mining operators to continue to meet these power and long hour application needs and operate in a way similar to what they do today. And the last application I want to talk about is a long-haul heavy-duty truck. These trucks typically operate over 300 miles a day. They have high power needs and crisscross the country, meaning that infrastructure is a more significant challenge for them. I had the opportunity to participate in a conference last fall on decarbonization of the transportation industry. And at this conference, we heard from 2 large fleet providers in North America. And they talked about their efforts they have underway to decarbonize. Both talked about their commitment to decarbonize and reach zero and that they were actively testing different solutions, working on how they were going to get there. One described the battery electric heavy-duty trucks that are available today and said, for their different application needs, the battery electric truck range only met about 10% of their different requirements. If the range was sufficient, they then had to assess weight requirements because the battery electric solution took about half of the typical payload because of the higher weight of the battery. And so they really saw fuel cells as also being an important solution for them over time. Economics is another challenge for them now. The cost of both that battery electric truck as well as fuel cell electric truck today is 2x to 3x the cost of a diesel solution. And if they could overcome all of those challenges, they pointed out that it is not a simple activity to put an infrastructure in place that's required to charge a heavy-duty electric truck. It takes significant time and costs working with utility companies. So you can see we face a wide range of technology solutions and challenges as we begin to move and adopt zero-emission solutions. And this creates a lot of uncertainty over the pace and how this will actually transition over time. So I now want to talk about 2 different scenarios of how we see the transition to zero-emission solutions happening in our key markets. These are based on external expert input, and I'll show first a slower adoption scenario and then I'll show a faster adoption scenario that you can compare. So as you look first at the slower adoption scenario, you see here a global view across our medium-duty and heavy-duty markets as well as our off-highway markets. And what you see is that there will be some adoption, but not significant adoption across these diverse global markets this decade. There will be markets, however, that will move faster. So that transit bus application I just talked about or medium-duty truck will move more quickly. And in this slow adoption scenario, we project 18% transition in North America medium-duty truck and bus by 2030. Other markets will take longer and will require different solutions, including the North America heavy-duty truck example that I gave a minute ago. So the form of technology will vary, and there's a lot of uncertainty again around how quickly this will happen. So let me now show that fast adoption scenario for comparison. In this case, we see the North America medium-duty truck market adopting closer to a 34% zero-emission solution by the 2030 time frame. And these other markets around the world see slightly higher adoption as well in that time frame. So this creates a unique challenge, and Cummins is very well positioned with our broad portfolio of technologies to meet this challenge. Companies that only offer one solution will not be able to meet diverse customer needs. Companies that focus only on one market will struggle to build the scale necessary to be profitable. And companies that don't have a strong cash-generating core may not be able to sustain the investment required for this long transition. Only Cummins has a portfolio of technologies and the agility that's needed to enable our customer success through this transition. Because we serve these diverse range of markets, we can start to invest and bring zero emission solutions into the early moving markets like rail and transit bus and build scale and learning and leverage that into these other markets. We'll also be able to main scale on our engine-based solutions for a much longer period of time. Because we have this whole portfolio of technologies, we can help customers choose the one that's right for them at each stage of this transition, and we'll continue to invest in decarbonizing across this whole range of technologies. So let me give you an example of how one of our customers is thinking about and approaching this. Werner is a long-standing customer of our heavy-duty engines, and they're actively thinking about decarbonizing their fleet and what that looks like. They've announced their intentions to offer Cummins natural gas and hydrogen engine-based solutions, and they're also doing a pilot with us on fuel cell solutions so they can understand how that fits into their fleet needs over time. So now that I've walked through these different adoption scenarios, I want to talk more about what it means to our business. And what you'll see is that the opportunity in front of us, provides an opportunity for Cummins to grow regardless of the adoption scenario. Let me talk first about what this looks like for our base business. So the Navy you see here on this chart represents our existing business, which you see we expect to continue to grow into the 2030s. Internal combustion, engine-based solutions will be the dominant technology across most of our markets into the 2030 time frame. Our installed base will continue to grow and our aftermarket business will extend and grow long after the first engine sales peak. In addition, we're actively working to extend our own sale of engine-based solutions as our OEM customers increasingly seek to use us to meet their needs. And so the yellow here you see is the announced partnership wins that we've made with Hino, Isuzu and Daimler. And then the green are additional growth opportunities that we continue to actively explore and believe that we will be able to realize. These include additional potential partnerships in engine-based solutions and also inorganic growth of other key components to decarbonized engines and also offer other components across the powertrain. And we've announced recently a couple of examples of these that we expect to realize. We announced our intent to acquire Jacobs Vehicle Systems, and we believe their technology is key in our future engine platforms for braking as well as thermal management as we decarbonize those solutions. And then, of course, yesterday, we announced the intention to acquire Meritor, which will bring into our Components business, additional components that will extend across the powertrain and beyond engines with their brakes and axles. So what you see here is our base business will continue to grow far beyond when engine-based solution sales peak in our industry. And when you couple this with the growth opportunities in our New Power business, you see Cummins is very well positioned to continue to grow. In New Power, we'll see first a lot of growth into adjacent opportunities with green hydrogen production in our electrolyzer business. And then we'll -- as our markets do begin to move to the zero emission solutions, we're well positioned to continue to maintain our presence in those markets. So regardless of the adoption scenario, slower or faster, Cummins is well positioned to continue to outgrow our markets. And when you look at our financial targets as a result of this for 2030, you see that we expect Cummins revenue to be $41 billion to $46 billion. Amy is going to talk more about the opportunities and the expectations for our New Power business in a few minutes. I now want to talk a little bit more about our base business, where we expect to realize revenue of $33 billion to $35 billion in 2030. We'll deliver strong cash flow, more than $30 billion from our operations between now and then, and incremental EBITDA growth of greater than 20%. And before I get into that, I just want to emphasize once again that our strategy for our business is also the best for the environment. We can't wait to adopt zero-emission solutions broadly in our market. We must also focus on decarbonizing those engine-based solutions that are broadly available. And we believe by focusing on both as we are in our Destination Zero strategy, we can see an additional 1.4 gigaton reduction of CO2 emissions into the environment. Emissions that once happen can never be taken back. And what does this translate to? That's the equivalent of taking all trucks off the road for 3 years. So it's a huge opportunity for us to pursue for the environment. So now let me talk about these key capabilities in our base business. And again, we feel really well positioned given our broad portfolio of technologies, our strong partnerships to continue to grow our presence in our core markets to leverage our investment in differentiated technologies for further growth in this business, we'll see a growing installed base and aftermarket revenue growth and continue to provide strong financial returns, cash -- and generate strong cash. We have unparalleled long-standing relationships with key OEMs around the world. And this, along with this portfolio of technologies that we offer, makes us an ideal partner to these customers as they evaluate whether they want to continue to invest in their own engines. In addition to this position we have with OEM customers, we have a unique position with the end customers. We have a broad service network available to support them. Because we focus on the power system and really understanding their application, we can help them walk side-by-side with them through this decarbonization journey and help them choose the solution that's right for them. We'll be there to service and support it, and we'll leverage this deep understanding of the power system and how it integrates into their application, along with our digital and connected solutions to also help them optimize performance, how they use those products and how they service and support them. I talked about our aftermarket business. As of 2021, Cummins had 12 million engines operating in the field. This has continued to grow year-over-year, and most of our aftermarket revenue comes from engines that have been in service for more than 5 years. So as our installed base continues to grow, which it will for some time, we'll continue to see that aftermarket revenue growth. In addition to a higher installed base, we'll also see increasing complexity and solutions that we are able to service because of emissions regulations that are adding content to these engines as well as our expansion into offering additional components in the powertrain that will also need service and support. And our global scale positions us uniquely with these OEMs. We have unrivaled scale when you look at global medium and heavy-duty engines. This enables us to continue to invest and advance and have the best products in the market. We will have the most efficient, highest power to rate engines available. And we've taken an industry-first approach with some of these platforms in introducing what we call a fuel-agnostic platform. And as you hear us talk about fuel-agnostic, you'll hear us talk about common bottom end or below the head gasket. So for those of you that aren't engineers like I am, I've taken this picture here on the slide to try to illustrate what that means. So the red part of the engines on these pictures is the bottom end or the common part of the engine across these different fuel types. And what that does for us is it allows us to continue to generate scale in our engineering investment as we develop and launch these platforms in the manufacturing and then the supply chain on these engines because of those common elements. It also is a positive for our OEM customers. As they do the vehicle integration of the platforms, they'll see common integration across these different fuel types. And for our end customers, it gives them confidence as they think about moving from a Cummins diesel engine to a natural gas or a hydrogen-based solution of that same platform. And so we really think this is a key exciting thing that we're pursuing that will help Cummins in this decarbonization of our engine-based solutions. And again, all of that means strong growth for our base business to 2030. We'll see $33 billion to $35 billion in revenue by 2030. We'll continue to generate strong financial returns with over 20% incremental EBITDA growth and strong cash for our shareholders. So I'm excited to have Amy come and talk more about our new power business and we're doing what we're doing in that area. Before we go to that, though, we're going to take about a 15-minute break and then come back, and Amy will talk about New Power. [Break]

This is exciting. The world is changing, and we are on the forefront. I couldn't be more excited to be with you here today to talk about New Power business. As you've heard, decarbonization is a significant growth opportunity for Cummins. The entire organization is focused on Destination Zero. But in New Power, we are completely focused on zero emissions, zero carbon solutions today. We're accelerating adoption in the most aggressive hard to abate sectors for customers ready to leap ahead to zero technology right now and turn to New Power. Jen briefly shared with you the expected revenue for new Power in 2030. Today, I'm going to show you how we build this up by giving an overview of the opportunities we're pursuing, explain how we manage this business like a startup, but also leveraging our incumbency and distribution advantage. And I'm going to discuss how we're positioned in every segment to win. Our total addressable market is significant, massive, way more than what you see here. The $100 billion here represents the opportunities we are addressing, sized using the likely adoption curves in 2030. We carefully mine the data and included segments that, one, we see as material in 2030; two, there are segments that we are actually pursuing; and three, we have products that will win. This has provided the foundation for establishing our revenue ambition. There are a few notable points to make. The on- and off-highway segments are higher than their diesel equivalent due to the added content and revenue of electrification. So the electrification of our core segments in itself is a growth opportunity for the company. But what's even more notable is that the global decarbonization trend opens up entirely new markets for Cummins that we've not been in before. In fact, these new markets represent almost half, again, the revenue opportunity that we already have, and they're nearer term, making it easier to pursue right now. I'll take you through each of these segments and discuss the opportunities and how the capabilities we've built position us to win. First, let me talk about how we're managing the New Power business. We know that we are in a unique period of industry change and disruption. As companies plot their road to net zero, they're rethinking their technology but they're also rethinking everything they do in the business. And to be a part of that, we knew we would need to step outside of Cummins, forget some of what we know and act like a start-up: create a culture focused on urgency for growth and a passion for driving adoption, inject different capabilities and processes, see opportunities in markets through a completely different lens. And we have done all of that. Let me share some examples. Speed of development and learning fast from each iteration is key to a differentiated product. So in New Power, we use unique product development processes unlike that used anywhere else in Cummins. Cummins has not historically manufactured vehicles. But in New Power, we saw that end customers are ready to try technology well before the OEMs have vetted products out there. And so we decided to manufacture vehicles. We acquired EDI, invested in our own vehicle integration and build capability, and we now have sites in California, Indiana and the U.K. And while Cummins have an amazing talent pool, there are targeted places where we knew we needed outside talent. And so 70% of all New Power employees come from either a start-up or outside the company. We move fast, and we have full autonomy to pivot or accelerate, depending on the market environment. We are creating new business models where we see the opportunity, like being the first to deploy power to grid in school buses. Unlike any start-up, anywhere in the world, though, we have this amazing distribution capability that sets us apart. Our distribution capability obviously translates well into our core market segments. It's what we spent 100 years designing it to do. Some speculate there will not be a need for aftermarket support and service with electrification, but it just isn't true. In these commercial segments, equipment works hard and it will need repair, Considering the mining truck Jen spoke about or the heavy-duty line haul truck, mining truck operates 8,000 hours a year and a long-haul truck can operate 100,000 miles a year. There will be times when it needs to be repaired and service. How is that going to happen without a safe location and an army of trained technicians to serve it? New entrants simply can't replicate something like this. With a little focus and adaptation, we're finding ways to leverage this advantage in our hydrogen production business as well. The distribution footprint of sites and legal entities gives us the infrastructure to add regional technical support and rapidly hire and train them. Our power generation business already commissions 7 to 9 gigawatts a year. The commissioning and maintenance capability from these projects give us a foundation to tailor for electrolyzer projects in industry or infrastructure. And we have 6,000 mobile maintenance trucks that are already supporting these projects globally. From an opportunity perspective, we are everywhere. And so when I hear about an opportunity in Spain or Australia or the Middle East or Chile, I'm able to just pick up the phone and call our sales team and be on that lead. Now I'm going to take you through each of the opportunities to highlight how we're innovating and winning new business. Let's start with the segments you know us for and what we've proven we know very well. I know Tom and Jen said it, but I'm going to hit this point again. Our core on- and off-highway segments represent varied and rigorous applications: medium-duty trucks, buses, excavators, mining trucks, tractors, One solution will not win. We see a lot of companies trying to convince themselves and you that technologies that work for passenger car will work for trucks or buses or construction equipment. And it just won't. Because we know the various duty cycles, we know it will be a combination of different battery chemistries. drive systems and fuel cell technologies that will need to be applied to deliver the right performance and cost for each of these applications. We are different in that we tailor batteries uniquely to certain applications, and our fuel cells that we use for stationary are not the same fuel cells we're going to be launching into the heavy-duty truck segment. We learned from a multitude of applications by getting experience, learning what happens to a battery in different use cases like frequent start/stops, long idling or power surges. What's working for us is serving these variations really effectively through world-class application engineering, tailoring and controls integration to optimize these systems. When someone else tries to come in and apply a best technology to a medium-duty truck or construction application, it might be interesting enough for cost right now. But it's quickly apparent that in a total cost of operation, it doesn't add up. And because we cut across so many markets and customers, we're able to strategically commonize and build scale over time. With our new product portfolio, we're increasing our scope of supply and can nearly double our share of wallet. Today, with an ICE engine and transmission, we have access to 34% of a heavy-duty truck. We can now access up to 60% of a heavy-duty truck scope with a fuel cell system and nearly 45% with a battery electric system. Our strategy is to be both an integrator and a component supplier. We have some customers, for example Bluebird or Gilead, where we provide the entire powertrain system, and we work with them to integrate it into their bus and optimize it. There are other customers such as Alstom, where we just supply the fuel cell engine or LTAC where we supply battery modules for zero emission hydraulic lift. There are synergistic benefits of this. When we sell a component, it gives us a foot in the door. We can provide critical systems knowledge for that OEM, opening doors to new content. When we sell the full powertrain, we are able to see the gaps and then design and pull in our own components into the system once they're developed. Essentially, this puts us at the table for every single opportunity out there. I want to spend a minute talking about our Meritor acquisition, which we announced yesterday. I have to say I'm probably one of the most excited people in the company about this. This gives us something really unique that no one else can match around the world. Having an eAxles solution and additional electrified powertrain integration capabilities is key because the traction system serves as a critical integration point. We also think eAxles will win in most of our applications due to the efficiency of packaging and the ability to differentiate performance. Owning this technology unlocks significant value and allows us to further develop and be an integrator for new power components. Meritor provides the foundation to participate and win these traction system opportunities, and our expertise infuses a new system knowledge that can bring it all together. It's like a missing piece of the puzzle that we have, and I couldn't be more excited about it. Incumbency is making a difference. We have relationships with end users and fleets that they entrusted us to put solutions with. So take a look at this slide. Every name you see on here either has a zero carbon, zero-emission solution or is collaborating with us on one. We are learning together with these players and many others not listed here. These customers want to work with us because they know we understand what uptime, service support and total cost of ownership means to them. We've not announced a major OEM partnership on electrification for fuel cells and we probably won't. The reality is that we are working different projects and opportunities with all of them. Our base business is having product planning sessions all the time talking about the future with these companies, and we're at the table with them. Our relationships are opening doors. We don't announce every customer win for a variety of reasons. Our long-time customers and many new entrants want to work with Cummins and their drive to zero, and you'll see the results in the marketplace. All of this has added up to big successes. Take a look at these stats. It's an impressive amount of volumes and firsts. These are real numbers, not announcements. In fact, I challenge you to find a competitor with these volumes and experience in these market segments. It's early, and as I've told many of you, the real benefit at this stage is the experience and learning to advance the technology faster than the actual applications where it counts. It means that we accelerate adoption, but it also means that we have the winning product for the right application when adoption really accelerates. Now we've talked about why we're well positioned in our core markets. Let's talk about electrolyzers. Electrolyzers represent the single biggest outgrowth revenue opportunity for this company. This market is exciting because it's here and now hydrogen is used today in industrial applications. In fact, nearly all the 75 million tons of hydrogen produced today is using in industries like petroleum refining, fertilizer production, ammonia production, some of the most carbon-intensive industries in the world. Most of this is produced using natural gas, and so they call it gray hydrogen. And now there's an imperative for these companies and their decarbonization efforts to turn this to green hydrogen. At the same time, companies and governments are partnering on infrastructure investments to make hydrogen available for end-use application. This is creating even more demand for hydrogen. More than 93 gigawatts worth of projects have been announced for green hydrogen. Many of these mega projects are still awaiting release of funding as governments finalize their programs and decision frameworks, but clearly, momentum is building. And I'm convinced we are well situated to capture this demand and win. We have a broad portfolio, and this matters here, too, because it will not be one single technology that wins. Each technology has its ideal use case and serves a different role for the business. Let's start with alkaline water electrolysis, where we have hundreds of applications over many decades through our acquisition of Hydrogenics. This is proven, reliable technology that continues to be well suited for some industries. It serves a bread and butter revenue for this business. We're in early in development with solid oxide electrolysis. That's an extremely promising technology. Solid oxide electrolysis run at higher operating temperatures like 800 degrees Celsius and above. This leads to higher system efficiency, thanks to thermal energy. They're ideally suited for industrial processing applications with excess steam or high-grade heat available like steel refining. There's even lots of potential to couple with nuclear power using both electricity and steam to maximize efficiency. We are investing here because we see it as a transformative technology, opening up significant new markets to this company. But it's really PEM electrolysis that presents the largest opportunity with us. The hydrogen economy matures, and we will see trends for growing project scale using PEM. PEM is particularly well suited for large-scale wind or solar to take advantage of high dispatchability of the technology to maximize efficiency and total cost of ownership. Capital costs are coming down, and our strategy is to maintain the #1 position in advanced PEM as the best solution for all green hydrogen applications. In 2020, we commissioned the largest panel electrolysis system in the world. Reports from both Credit Suisse and Mackenzie recognize that our PEM has the best efficiency in the market. This efficiency really matters for these cost-sensitive industries and becomes even more critical for the large-scale utility projects as they develop. Let me talk about why our PEM technology will win. We start with the fundamental stack technology first launched in 1999 through Hydrogenics. These stacks are sized at 1.25 and 2.5 megawatts, and these provide excellent building blocks for projects up to 200 megawatts in scale. We are launching a 5-megawatt stack that will be ideal for cost and performance in the mega project range of 200-megawatt and above. This building block will help lower capital costs significantly and provide the smallest footprint and efficiency with renewable power for any other person in the world. We have system designs that have been quoted and project, one in the entire range that you see on this map. In fact, we have 280 total projects quoted representing every category you see here, and over $8 billion in potential revenue. I'm going to tell you about a few exciting projects that we've just converted into wins over the last couple of months. Unfortunately, I have to wait for our various partners to be ready to tell their story as well. But stay tuned. It's exciting. Demand is growing fast, as you've heard, so capacity will matter. Here is another area where we have applied the strength of Cummins' manufacturing and industrialization capabilities to accelerate our position. By the end of 2023, we will have manufacturing and engineering capabilities on 3 continents. We're starting with immediate expansion of our facility in Canada, and our facility in Belgium. We're launching a brand-new gigafactory in Spain. And in China, we will have a common stack manufacturing site in Shanghai and a common Sinopec JV site in Foshan, China. We recognized early that we would need a broad array of strategic and global partners to access these markets and deliver on the projects. We now have a list of impressive companies covering the key segments and geographies that will lead in hydrogen development over the next decade. This is a marquee set of partners, and our list continues to grow. The interesting thing about the companies you saw on that page is that all of them have hydrogen projects and they're interested in advancing hydrogen infrastructure, and most of them have trucks or equipment that they want to decarbonize. So it puts us in a position to act as both a catalyst, connecting customers together to build economies of scale for truck demand, and an enabler by providing electrolysis for localized fueling. Air Products and Chevron are 2 customers where we announced collaboration on these fronts, and many more are lining up. We all know that there's a chicken and an egg challenge when it comes to infrastructure, hydrogen and electric vehicle adoption. We are accelerating adoption and advancing hydrogen infrastructure through our unique portfolio and set of relationships. The hydrogen production segment represents the largest outgrowth opportunity for this company. It probably shows that I am incredibly excited to be on the lead in this. Lastly, I want to touch on what you see here is some market extensions. As you can imagine, the decarbonization, the white space that we could enter is enormous. So what we've done is sized up $23 billion worth of opportunity that have clear, common sense ways to leverage what we've already invested in product or partnerships and accelerate our revenue with the least new effort and risk. We're being deliberate and focused on pursuing these. Let me highlight a few meaningful opportunities where we already have products out there or partners lined up to make meaningful progress. One example is the light-duty commercial space. As a company, Cummins has never really focused here. Since it's a leading segment for electrification, we led some of our early battery development from these light applications for early learning. This opened some doors for us to secure early partnerships and fleet opportunities in the Class 2 to 5 space here in the U.S. We will continue building on this to stay ahead of others and secure a leadership position. Another extension is marine. Commercial marine applications are varied and will need different solutions to decarbonize. We've already introduced an industry first in fast ferries in San Francisco Bay. But a bigger step out for us will be the deep ocean vessels requiring a solution to meet fuel flexibility needs for long distances. This is a place where the solid oxide fuel cell technology could be a game changer. We are in discussions with industry leaders pursuing access to this technology for shared development and commercialization. Probably the biggest opportunity you see on this list is stationary applications where we have a portfolio of products that could serve their needs. In places like biogas and microgrids, these are leading segments for solid oxide fuel cell projects where we are working collaboratively with mission-critical customers like wastewater, data centers and hospitals. We have even been awarded DOE programs to aid in getting the cost down by reducing material costs and manufacturing automation. Also in stationary markets, we are leveraging our existing PEM fuel cells and battery storage technologies. We've already delivered more than 300 PEM stationary systems in power ranges from 10 kilowatts to 1 megawatt. And there will be significant demand in energy storage. Our LFP batteries can gain significant scale by selling into the stationary market. We don't want to distract our focus. We are looking for the opportunities where we can leverage development already in place and partners that we can count on for reliable solutions, all of which will bring us scale and lower our costs and progress adoption. Let's bring all those together in the financials. All of this together adds up to what we estimate to be $6 billion to $13 billion in total revenue in 2030. This might seem like a big range, but it's taking the 2 booked ends of adoption curves into account. More than half of that new revenue will be completely incremental in spaces Cummins have not played just a few years ago. Mainly, if you think about those new categories, it's going to be in the expanded vehicle scope I talked about, electrolysis and some of the stationary applications. I've been through the buildup personally of every win. We've worked this hard really building it up from the bottom up, understanding reasonable and realistic market share positions. And I can assure you the entire New Power organization is lined up to deliver on this. It takes investment, which Cummins can continue to make thanks to our strength of our balance sheet and the strong cash flow in the base business. We estimate that we'll sustain losses of around $1.3 billion until we break even in 2027. There are a lot of pure-play entrants creating excitement out there. It's died down a little bit, but it's still out there. With Cummins, you are getting an iconic New Power company. Essentially, 4 pure-play technologies in 1. We are leveraging our incumbency where it matters, innovating fast and earning real trust in the marketplace. The Meritor acquisition adds to our portfolio and increases our integration capabilities immensely. There's no one else with this combination of solutions for zero carbon, zero emissions anywhere in the world. There are clear growth synergies across these businesses that we are leveraging by combining infrastructure, end-use conversion and OEM pull. But there are real technical and supply chain synergies to having this portfolio as well, things like fuel cell innovation across membranes and manufacturing, stack expertise, system knowledge and integration of drivetrains. This serves to accelerate our cost position as adoption picks up. We have the portfolio, and we are investing in the team to bring it all together. Thanks so much for having me. And I'd like to turn it over back to Tom to bring it all together.

Thank you, Amy. I left you talking about the importance of great leaders to build a great company and make sure we can sustain shareholder value over time. You will not find 2 better examples of high-quality leaders, than Jennifer Rumsey and Amy Davis, and it's because of them that I have this enthusiasm I do about our future. So I'm going to bring us to a close, as Amy said, then we'll do some Q&A. And I want to come back to these targets and bringing them all together. To say Mark Smith was nervous about setting targets for 2030 would be an understatement. And I share that, to be honest. It's a long-term target. And of course, that drives much larger ranges. Why did we do that? Because there are significant misunderstandings about our business and the transition that's going to occur. First of all, I see many writers talking about the demise of the internal combustion engine much faster than it's actually going to happen. Jen made that point really clearly. No matter whose transition curves you use, the most aggressive, the least aggressive, you still see significant internal combustion engine across all of our markets globally for a significant period of time. Some will transition fast, some will transition slowly. The point is there's going to be significant business for a long time. And that was misunderstood. And without taking it all the way out to 2040, it's hard to show. That's why we did that. The second is, since nobody really knows exactly how the transition is going to go, we needed to show, under all circumstances, Cummins wins. And that's really the most important part of this. We have New Power technologies, which Amy is going to work to make sure the transition happens to very quickly. You can hear her enthusiasm. She's convincing clients every day. You should buy a fuel cell. Meanwhile, Srikanth and Norbert from our Power Systems and Engine business are convincing them, no, no, I have great low carbon solutions for you today with internal combustion engines. I can offer you different fuels, you name it, trying to convince them to stay with internal combustion engines. So we will compete. But in both cases, Cummins will win. That's the important point about this. And I do believe that the addition of Meritor add significant opportunity for us to consolidate in the New Power business, bring our technologies around the eAxles be able to offer systems and offer components in a way we could not without it, and we have the opportunity to grow their core business. So that addition just strengthens our hand significantly. It's important to say that before we can complete the acquisition of Meritor, we, of course, need to make sure the shareholders vote on it and improve it. And then, of course, we'll need regulatory approval. And all of our numbers do include those, but I just want to offer that caveat that those 2 things need to happen. Our numbers also exclude our Filtration business because we expect to have -- we were considering strategic options and we just want to make sure that we think about that in the future. So filtration numbers are out, Meritor numbers are in, lots of stuff still to work through for those 2. So let me go back to my tear sheet, the sheet that you -- if you're going to tear one out, tear this one out, and that is decarbonization is a growth opportunity for Cummins. And you heard throughout here that we are uniquely positioned in the commercial/industrial space to provide solutions now, solutions in the medium-term, solutions in the long term that will meet both the needs of the planet and the needs of our customers. And again, uniquely to provide returns every step of the way. I want to close with a comment on ESG. When I talk about ESG with some of my colleagues and other CEOs from other companies and various regulators and investors, I sometimes get the sense that people see ESG as some kind of reporting format or reporting mechanism. That's just not how we see it at Cummins. You can tell from our presentation here that we see our environmental strategy is fundamental to our business strategy, and we have for a long time, we have with air emissions and we now see it with climate change, it is core to what we are and what we do. And it's not just about reporting how many of our plants make energy improvements, we are going to make a significant impact on our industry in terms of decarbonizing it, and we're going to do it in a way that grows our revenues, grow our profits and earns returns for shareholders. We see DE&I much the same way. For us, diversity, equity and inclusion has always about -- been about competing and winning, always. The way we build leadership talent, the way we recruit and retain, it's always about competing and winning with diverse concepts, ideas and people. And our Board today has 6 women on it. We have 5 Black or Latino directors. We have 2 directors born outside the U.S. And I have watched personally how that Board has grown in perspective, improved its thought and performance and been just more enjoyable to work with. It's a great Board. And it's a great Board, both because they're great people and because they have diverse perspectives. My leadership team is the same way. My leadership team is half women, and you can see the improvement in quality and performance of that leadership team because we bring on more diverse perspectives. We see DE&I as a competitive weapon. We are going to continue to focus on it, and that's how we see ESG at the company. So with that, I think you can see our enthusiasm for the future of Cummins. We've never been better positioned. I'm really excited about what we're going to bring to the market and what we can deliver for you for shareholders. We're going to take a 15-minute break again, give you time to handle whatever you need to handle, and then we're going to come back for Q&A. Look forward to seeing you then. [Break]

Okay. Welcome back, everybody, and it's time to move to Q&A. I will just say that, Tom, as much as I was nervous about the 40-year targets. I felt a lot more nervous about the prospects of the competition having listened to the Jen and Amy. So with that, we'll open up and move to the Q&A section please.

Our first question today is coming from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

Mark at the risk of making you a little bit more nervous. I'm wondering if, Amy, I can ask you to comment out of the revenue range that you outlined for 2030, can you just roughly outline how much of that is from electrolyzers, battery electric, hydrogen fuel cells? I know it's going to be a wide range of outcomes, but maybe if you could just talk about the sizes of the buckets and electrolyzers in particular, if you don't mind.

Sure. I'll give you a high level kind of look at the low range. Jerry, about 2/3 of the revenue comes from electrolyzers and the traction drive, and then about the rest of the third comes from the combination of battery, fuel cell systems and other components out there. In the higher range, that shifts a little bit because obviously adoption starts to accelerate in all the categories, but it does bring the BEV and fuel cell EV piece a little higher in the mix in the higher adoption scenarios. Does that give you a good outlook?

That's terrific. And on the electrolyzer side, I'm wondering if we could just expand on that maybe a little bit more in terms of how do you feel about what level of market share is reasonable to expect for your business. And maybe the path towards that $4 billion ramp, if you could update us on the 2025 targets for electrolyzers, if you don't mind, Amy.

Yes, sure. So I feel really good about our commitment and discussion that we've had with you all around the $400 million revenue target for 2025. We, as you can imagine, pay really close attention to the quote pipeline as it's coming in, the activity there, our win rate. And so as I communicated in my remarks, we have over $8 billion in quote pipeline there. And we analyze our win rate over time, and we have win rate over 30% for those quotes that we go after. If I think about our mix, I mean, there are some of the really large-scale projects where you can see that alkaline might be the one to win. So we'll go and probably pursue higher market share for PEM, get some proof big, large-scale projects out there so that we can start to leverage PEM more competitively with alkaline. But in a lot of the industrial projects PEMs winning now, and we're -- and I'm really happy with our win rate and our progress.

Your next question is from Steven Fisher from UBS.

Just again, to follow up on some of the New Power goals. Wondering how we should think about the shape of the curve on the $1.3 billion of outflows over the next several years? And then as we get to, I guess, the 2030 target, thinking about the midpoint range, the $9.5 billion, $10 billion, what should we be thinking about as some possible margin targets there, either on a sort of an absolute basis or relative to the core business?

Yes, I can start, Mark, you can feel free to jump in. I think our guidance this year was for losses around $290 million. And I would expect that, that will go up or be in that range or up a little bit next year, 2023, and level in 2024 and then come down to the breakeven in 2027. And then 2027, we do start to see some acceleration. And so we pay a lot of attention. And what I would say is we have a clear glide path for positive gross margin. We have expectations that electrolyzers are positive gross margin today as we sell them, those projects are. In our next generation of products that we put out there, each get higher in gross margins as we bring the cost down and we get more scale and volume. So in the 2027 time frame, that starts to turn, and we see really favorable returns by the 2030 time frame.

I just add, Steve, that the combination of both the continued improvement in the base business and the investment in New Power, we still think we're going to grow overall margins for the company through this cycle, continue to improve the overall cash flow profile of the business. And as Amy said, as we transition into more scale, then higher margins, higher profitability. I think you heard Tom say clearly, the way we drive higher returns over the long run is to keep improving in margins. So as the losses come down, there will be a bit of a step-up in CapEx in that middle period. It won't be enormous. But I think the basic answer is we'll be running about the current rate of cash for 2 or 3 years, and then we'll start to see meaningful improvement in New Power.

Great. And just a follow-up. I think, Jennifer, this was in your slides, perhaps in your faster BEV adoption scenario. I think you had medium-duty adoption at about 34% rate. I might have thought that would be a little bit higher in a faster adoption scenario. I guess I'm curious which of the limitations do you see as the biggest challenge for the medium-duty adoption?

Yes. You're right in that faster adoption scenario of the North America medium-duty expectation was around 34%. I think in that adoption scenario, our external expert source of information, heavily used McKinsey expectations on market rate. I talked about the different factors for adoption, I would say infrastructure build-out and infrastructure capability to actually support those different application needs as you expand from an urban bus into broader operating ranges is one key and then continuing to advance batteries, right? We've seen battery costs coming down, and so the pace that you can continue to see battery costs coming down while capably meeting these application requirements is another key factor. .

Steve, the only thing I'd add to Jen's response is that each of these segments have so many subsegments that it's difficult to stand in one place and see it. So if you're looking at beverage trucks and refuse vehicles in California, you're going to see a much higher than 34% adoption rate. The problem is if you're standing in Wyoming and there's no charging stations and you've got a lot of midrange trucks to deal with, some of them are gasoline today, there's a whole big range of them. So when you step back from it all, you get 34%. That doesn't mean that we won't see significant activity in that market. We do expect significant activity in that market where people are -- large-scale fleets will be changing over in that period of time, just as you would suspect. But when you step back from it all, and I think this is the misunderstanding you're trying to understand, there are so many applications in so many regions that won't be able to move either because infrastructure is such a big issue, as Jen said, or they're just really cost-sensitive. So, mid-range trucks is really price-sensitive. It's hard to get advantage in mid-range trucks except on price. So that's -- I think that's the thing that all those outside people are taking into consideration when they put those estimates out.

Your next question is coming from Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

I'm curious if I could get you to opine a little bit on what an adoption curve for alternative fuels, whether it be nat gas or hydrogens or methane or whatever else people might want to come up with or mix is there, what would that adoption curve look like as we move out towards 2030?

Yes, we do see growing interest in several of our markets, including U.S. and China for natural gas. And I think that there's -- the hydrogen infrastructure that can support hydrogen-based internal combustion engines can also support fuel cells. So there could be a transition to a hydrogen-based engine solution, if that is more cost-competitive and able to meet customer needs in this time frame. In terms of the pace of that adoption, natural gas is a bridge -- we see it as a bridge solution, and it's one that our customers are quite interested in now because of the decarbonization goals that they've set for themselves by 2030. It does require infrastructure to support it. There is areas where there's a lot of focus on renewable natural gas that can be a net-zero solution. Again, I think it's going to be in certain pockets where that's attractive and interesting to customers. And some of these big fleet customers can actually drive that infrastructure adoption. So I don't think it's going to be a -- you're going to see a broad comprehensive natural gas infrastructure, but I do think you'll see quarters and areas to serve customer markets that are interested in that where the infrastructure will build out between now and 2030.

And I would just add that our market share in the natural gas applications, certainly in the U.S. is even higher than our leading position in diesel. So that's an opportunity for us.

Okay. And then just on batteries. Can you just talk about how you feel about your battery technology? Do you need more capability there, different technology? Just is that going to be sort of an important part of your offering as we get out toward the end of the decade?

Yes. I mean I feel really good about our product plan for batteries. I think we have a complementary set of NMC battery technology that we're working on for medium-duty truck and some bus applications as well as some LFP battery work, which we're now seeing as probably a more promising technology for medium-duty truck into the future. So we have both technologies that we're working on and we have customers lined up for both of those. And I think it will continue to be an important part of our portfolio. I don't think it's going to be the blazing financial return. I think it's going to be an important thing to have. We'll make returns on it, and it will be key in our portfolio. I think that the integration with the traction is much more differentiating, and I'm really excited about that, too. So I think we'll have both, and we'll pull batteries in and out, and that will be something that we'll have, and it will be important. But traction is going to be really exciting.

Steve, I think it's important too to -- we've talked about this before, but there's kind of 2 angles on the battery side. One is, does your technology perform, does it do what the customer wants. And we've been very focused on that. And I think the result, as Amy said, is we're feeling more confident that we've got offerings that can work for customers in the applications that we want. The second is the whole supply chain challenge. So there's not only materials that are potentially hard to find or create other kind of issues, plus there's the trade issues between China and the U.S. and other places. And all those issues are playing into the cost/price concerns about how people are going to secure capacity in batteries. Those are a big challenge. And so we're trying to also figure out strategically how we address those challenges. But on the technology side, our view is, as Amy said, we've got -- we understand what these applications need. We're designing generation-by-generation better batteries to go inside an overall system and with a traction drive that we think will be highly competitive and, frankly, leading in commercial and industrial markets.

Next question today is coming from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.

I guess just first, can you talk about the base business financial targets that you have just sort of what the economic assumption sort of market share assumptions are embedded in that forecast? And do you assume incremental wins on your core business in terms of market share that you have not announced yet? So I guess that will be my first question. And then my second question, just on New Power systems, obviously, the 2030 revenue guide, a wide range of $6 billion to $13 billion and understanding you'll be breakeven by 2027, but is there any way you could frame potentially a margin target around the $6 billion to $13 billion?

Okay. Jamie, thanks for that multipart question. I'll start with the first 2 parts. So the projections for the base business are essentially based on today's market sizes. So we've tried to take cyclicality out of those curves with one exception, and that is in China where we think the truck market is running well below par this year. So we've normalized the China market size to about 1.4 million trucks. Other than that, we're essentially operating on today's market sizes for industrial equipment and the number of commercial vehicles. So yes, we do -- we are optimistic about the ability to secure more partnerships wins. That's why we've broken the slices of those mountain charts into 2. We've got the 1 slice that shows the businesses that we've already secured. And yes, we're optimistic that we've got a compelling economic proposition to the global OEM base that gives us a chance of winning more. And then, of course, we added in acquisitions there, of which Meritor obviously fills a part of that gap. And again, the purpose is not to pursue revenue, the purpose is to advance our strategy to build a better company for the future, but we see these different opportunities. We can't cover all of the growth initiatives in a discussion here, but needless to say, we still got growth opportunities in the components business, transmissions in China. We've got new products coming out of our Power Systems. We've got a very strong and growing aftermarket business that's built into the base. But those are the key elements of the growth. And hopefully, I've summarized for you clearly what the market size assumptions are. You can see from our Q4 earnings deck and our Q1 guidance the individual market size assumptions are essentially baked in.

I think on the margin target -- Hi Jamie, by the way, the margin targets, we've talked about this before, it's difficult for 2030 to roll up a margin target in a business that's still evolving, you know that. But frankly, we're setting margin targets in the same way we're setting them for ourselves today. We know the margin comes from having leading products. First of all, since we're an intermediate supplier, if we don't have leading products, margins are going to be lower. Second of all, we recognize that in places where the cost were a major cost of our customers' products, so battery, for example, is a major cost. They're going to want to negotiate a lot harder on the margin than if you were a tiny part. And with all the supply chain and challenges that are going on today, it's really difficult to look from today to project what margins are going to be there. But as we -- in the places that we do see, where we've already got production products, Amy talked about electrolyzers, we're seeing margins similar to the ones we experienced today. And so we have every expectation that our margin profile in the New Power business will be similar to the margin profile we have here. A little bit more on original OEM products and a little less on aftermarket as a mix. But as Amy said, our expectation is we'll have significant aftermarket, too. It's just the mix is probably likely to change over that time.

Next question from Matt Elkott from Cowen.

Just going back to the Meritor acquisition, you guys did a good job highlighting the complementary aspects of the acquisition. Can you talk about maybe the competitive nature of the relationship pre-acquisition? And if there are any areas where there's an opportunity to discontinue some businesses, either at Cummins or at Meritor as a result of the combination?

I could talk a little bit about that. It turns -- there's very little overlap between our businesses. It's difficult to identify even one competitive area. Almost everything we do is complementary. You know Meritor's core business has been axles and brakes, we -- Cummins has no business in axles or breaks. But the complementary part is we sell to mostly the same customers, large truck and industrial and commercial companies around the world. We both have footprints that are global. Although our footprint, especially like in China and India, is much bigger than theirs, so we think we have opportunities to bring their products into those markets and share them with customers that we've had long-term relationships with. And I think even on the electrification side, we've been working in different parts of the powertrain on the electrification side, so again, largely complementary. Where we see cost synergies primarily is in the SG&A supply chain footprint area. We do -- Meritor is a global company, but as a revenue matter is relatively modest compared to Cummins. So we think we can manage a lot of the overhead functions with a combination of our employees that it will be lower in total than the sum today. We also think that our purchasing power goes up in some base commodities and things like that. And lastly, we think our facilities, especially in the aftermarket and the go-to-market side, there's overlap in our facilities where we could consolidate potentially and get savings. So the overlap primarily is in those overhead and supply chain functions as opposed to in any business areas.

Got it. That's very helpful. And just if I may, one quick follow-up, Tom, on the guidance front again. And sorry if I missed this, but the guidance for the New Power segment, can you talk a bit more about how much of that revenue growth is related to the parts of the legacy business that are decarbonizing and in 5 to 10 years may be counted as New Power?

The way we divided it up is if it's a zero carbon solution, so I think, battery, fuel cell, et cetera, then that's in our New Power business. If it's an internal combustion engine solution, even if it's using an alternate fuel, renewable fuel, it's in our Engine business or our Power Systems business. So it's a pretty simple split. Internal combustions are in the part that you've always seen, the other technologies are in the New Power side. And we sell to the customer in a coordinated way. We're not competing against each other. We go to the customer and we say we got this product, here's what it can run on these fields. We've got this product it's a battery and here's what the cost, and we try to provide the best solution to the customer. We don't compete at the customer. We compete on the technology and the product side to offer -- have the best solution, and then we go to the customer with the solution we think is best for them.

I would say the cleanest part of the business. It's a clear add to Cummins in all scenarios as the electrolyzer and the hydrogen production where there's no overlap and, as Amy described, the biggest growth opportunity ahead of us over the next few years for the entire company. So that's a win-win, clear line of sight.

Got it. And as the legacy business decarbonizes, as I would imagine that part of it in a 10-year time frame will be just as carbon neutral or even carbon positive as the New Power segment. So it would seem like a more nuanced look is warranted when you're trying to assess the carbon footprint of the business. I appreciate the time.

Next question today is coming from Chad Dillard from Bernstein.

So can you give us a sense for the conversations you're having with the customers about transitioning to fuel agnostic and alternative fuel engines? Is it a push or more of a pull? And are your customers working on these engine solutions? Or would you get a sense that they just prefer to outsource to Cummins?

Yes. So let me address your question. Let me talk first about from an end-customer perspective, a number of our end-customers have set decarbonization goals. And so those customers that have decarbonization goals are actively talking to us about different solutions in New Power, and also these fuel agnostic platforms in the natural gas, renewable natural gas and potential hydrogen solution as a way to reduce their carbon footprint. There's others that are just operating diesel solutions today and not having that conversation, but definitely the tone and frequency of those conversations with end-customers and really try to think about what this means for their business has gone up, and they're very excited about the fuel agnostic platforms that we plan to offer. With our OEM customers, again, we are having many conversations and deeply working with these big partners that we have talking about product plans how regulations are evolving, where they're investing in the world that Cummins can play for them both on the engine side as well as the New Power side and offering components or solutions to meet their needs. So lots and lots of conversations, I'd say, at an OEM level. And at an end customer, it really depends on the customer, their decarbonization goals and how forward thinking they are today.

I would just add that when we go to see OEMs today, it's hard not to feel a little empathetic for their position. Here they are, there's this transition going on, they've got x number of end users that would like to see fuel cells, x number that like to see batteries. I'd rather have natural gas. There's no natural gas near me. I want some other solution. Because as Jen said, when they do their personal calculation about what's going to work in their region and they're -- it's not the same. And for 100 years, the answer has been easy. Please give me a diesel engine. Now they're struggling with like how do I meet all these goals when each one of them may not produce an economically viable number of units, how do I do it? And so I think that's why you're seeing them; a, talk to us about maybe taking more of their diesel engine or internal combustion engine supply because it's just so many things to do; and secondly, trying to pick the places that they want to compete because they think that's going to be the biggest winner. They all know there's going to be multiple winners, but what's going to be the biggest winner and where do they want to be. It's just not easy sitting where they're sitting. And that's a little bit why when we looked at this spectrum of solutions, we said, we need to provide solutions given the range of applications that our OEMs serve we need to provide a range of solutions over this period so that we can meet their needs, and then we will continue to build scale, both in application and in base technology that when the decision is made when finally, it's almost all fuel cells in mine trucks and rail, and it's all electric and midrange and then lots of questions about what's in between, when it's all done, we will have scale and the lowest cost, best performing product in that node.

And can you talk about your R&D and maybe CapEx investment intensity as we think about like these next 8 years? And how are you thinking about that level of investment needed differs for the core business and then just for the New Power business, if you can break that up?

Yes. As you guess, that's a big focus for the company because we, at one time, we wanted to make sure that we're shifting our R&D mix enough towards New Power to make sure that we lead in these technologies. I've been asked that question a lot, how are you ever going to keep up with this pure-play and that pure-play. And our -- we feel very confident about that. Not only are we -- have we now acquired or built up the leading technology portfolios in commercial industrial equipment for fuel cells and for batteries, but we think we're spending at a rate in those market segments that keeps us in front. Because remember, the vast majority of investment today in BEVs, for example, is in cars. Significant investment in cars, and that's just going to increase from here, by the way. Everybody who's in batteries anywhere is thinking about cars, because cars are going to ramp really quickly between now and 2030. So the fact that we're not really thinking about cars, what we're thinking about is all the other things, I think, will allow us to keep our technology investment ahead of other companies in that field. At the same time, you heard from us, we think there are significant advantages that we can gain by providing lower carbon solutions with internal combustion engines because there are many hard-to-abate sections where the transition will go much slower, region by region, by application, et cetera. And if we can provide them different fuels, just better fuel efficiency, other kinds of solutions, we believe that we will capture more and more of their share. So that's kind of the joint solution. The sum of those 2, by the way, is a higher R&D level than we are experiencing where we're just doing diesel engines. No question about it, but it's not twice as high. And that's kind of what we're focused on is how to invest when the investments needed. And Amy talked about that, like we don't need to launch the final battery solution for heavy-duty truck today because there aren't any buyers. But for a bus, we better be moving fast.

I just had a couple of words on -- comments on CapEx. So historically, we've given a range of 3% to 4% of revenues for CapEx, and we still think that's a range we can manage to. We're in a period here this year where the dollars spent on CapEx is going up a little bit as we are bringing to production, these few agnostic platforms that Jen talked about. And then the great news about securing more OEM business is that, that just adds to the returns on the capital we are already investing for our existing platforms. But yes, we expect the CapEx to stay in that 3% to 4% range going forward with what we know today.

Next question today is coming from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

I want to delve a little bit -- I know everyone is asking questions about New Power and that's the focus. But there's an assumption here that confuses me on the base business. If I take the consensus estimates for '22, the right or wrong, and add Meritor and subtract filtration, I get about a $28.5 billion number, give or take. And I'm looking at these 2030 targets of $33 billion to $35 billion. And Tom, you were talking about the 6% CAGR that you had for 20 years, but it only looks like about a 2% CAGR to get from where we are plus Meritor minus filtration to your 2030 target. So could you just give me a little bit more information around that? Are we assuming that the base business peaks prior to 2030? Are you building in a recession? Why only about a 2% growth rate?

Well, first of all, there is some transition to new technologies away from the New Power business. So there's about $1.5 billion of revenue decline based on that industry transition that's embedded in the 2030 number. So you've got to -- if you want to add that back to calculate the underlying growth rate, and then we haven't assumed any growth in overall market size for vehicles and industrial equipment over that 8-year period either.

Okay. That's helpful. And then one follow-up, if I can. The Autonomous, we haven't talked much about it. I get the sense the Meritor acquisition is going to be helpful in that respect, too. But one of the things people are talking about is our trucks will run 200,000 miles instead of 100,000 miles a year, I don't know if the engines last any longer. Could you just share with us your thoughts on how autonomous plays out from Cummins' perspective? And do we get to a point, maybe not by 2030 but at some point, where the replacement cycle for on-highway vehicles is accelerating because of the increased use? Or am I not thinking about that right? .

Yes. Let me talk for a few minutes just about how we see autonomous impacting your business. And if you look at a lot of the demonstrations and work happening on autonomous trucks today, many of them are using Cummins engines as a part of the those applications. So we're working really closely on how we ensure integration and really optimization of the powertrain performance in those autonomous systems. And as you said, if we are able to move to full autonomy where you don't have a driver, some of the constraints that we have today on truck stopping for driver rest would go away. So potentially, you'd see even higher miles per day, miles per year, higher aftermarket demand and potentially cycle changes that would happen. And we haven't modeled that because there's just a high amount of uncertainty on exactly how vehicle autonomy will play out and when. And so we are continuing to think about, with the base business we have today and the acquisition of what Meritor has, how we continue to provide optimal components in autonomous trucks. And so you can imagine, we'll be continuing to think about what Meritor means and how we continue to build on that.

Okay. So no autonomous in the 2030 outlook?

Yes. It's not that there's none in there. It's that we just haven't built any special section for that. Like we -- to your point, we've thought through the same changes you have, is it drive up cycles, is it drive up aftermarket. Our uncertainty about how quickly it gets deployed and how broadly it gets deployed given both infrastructure and legal and other issues still remains, I guess. So we are neither naysayers nor are we advocates, we're just trying to watch and learn. And as Jen said, we're not the primary drivers. We're not doing LiDAR. We're not doing any of those things. We're not really working the regs on those things. Those are trucks and other people. But we are trying to make sure that whatever solutions come, Cummins engines will have an advantage in them.

Our next question is coming from Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

So my first question is do you expect Europe to still lead the way in terms of alternative fuels given the difficulty with financing?

It's hard to say. Our view is, as you heard from Jen, we think alternate fuels are going to be not one solution across the world. Not even one solution across Europe, actually. For example, we see in north of Europe, a lot of talk about renewable gas landfill. We see in Germany, a bunch of discussion about e-fuels. So I think what you're seeing there is what's the natural resource of the region in question and then some effort by the people making those resources to advocate for that fuel. We do believe, though, that in low carbon fuels, there is a significant opportunity to use those fuels in internal combustion engines, significantly reduce carbon and especially in hard-to-abate sections without overhauls and infrastructure. A little bit of infrastructure to get the fuel, but less than having to build charging stations across every farm field in middle of Sweden. So we -- our view is they will be deployed, but I don't think they're going to be deployed in one common EU way, one common U.S. way. And I don't think Europe is going to lead in the sense that somehow they're defining standards. I think what's -- we're seeing is regional and state or whatever standards are likely to prevail because that's how the resources are set up. Place like hydrogen may be an exception to that. We might see if hydrogen ICE comes out, especially think about it like in marine or places like that, then marine people who are running ships are going to want to know that they're putting the same stuff in their ships. So there will be some shipping standards and some other places where places go region to region. But broadly speaking, we think regional solutions will prevail.

Understood. That's very helpful. And if I could ask one more. Can you remind us what are some of the key lessons you've learned about the fuel cell industry since acquiring Hydrogenics?

I can start and maybe, Amy, you should probably finish. One thing I forgot to say about the fuels thing, by the way, is that one of the ways we're addressing that point that regional strategies will prevail is that inside of our Engine business and our Power Systems business, as Jen showed the bottom end of those engines being common, is to find architectural solutions so the change between one fuel and another is relatively modest. By doing so, that means that no matter where you on the world and what fuel you're burning, you have a relatively low-cost solution to do so. I think that was said earlier, but I just want to make sure I brought that back. I just go back to fuel cells. I'll start at a high level. I was involved, of course, in the [ early ] acquisitions directly. One thing we recognize is that the fuel cell technology is not at a research phase anymore. When I worked on fuel cells 20 years ago or so in the Power Generation division, I mean, we killed the project because it basically couldn't live. I mean we couldn't keep the thing from burning up a solid oxide fuel cell. So today's technology, it lives. Like we can produce them. They are running today in trains carrying passengers. So our real challenge today is bringing down the cost, making sure that the life is longer. So -- and that's about cost again, so you don't have to do as much repair. It's also about making sure that the size matches the application. You're not -- you don't have 2 boxes, you get to 1 box. What we call development. You're going from research to development. And development is where all the refinements happen that make it competitive with other technologies like internal combustion engines. So a lot of the work that Amy is doing on fuel cells is about trying to bring it into cost neutrality with its other competitors, internal combustion engines, et cetera, batteries and whatever it depends on what the application is. And so that's a major difference than where we were some years ago. Amy, anything you'd add about what you learned?

I would add on that because I think it's -- Hydrogenics brought us. We have just an incredible core talent of chemical engineers, engineers who understand how the fuel cell works and, as Tom said, spent years developing that and stabilizing it, et cetera. And the stuff we're doing now is development in terms of application. And -- but with that, I would say, the improvements to be made in performance are still big. So if I just take Alstom, for an example, as we are learning about how the fuel cell is working in the train, how it's working with the rest of the train system, braking, et cetera, there's a ton of improvement we're able to do using controls in terms of extending the life of the fuel cell, extending the efficiency of the fuel cell just by applying that application knowledge. And so this is actually a case where I think a lot of our Hydrogenics people say, hey, this is great, having these applications. People come in here and know how to model it, know how to test it. And then learn, apply quickly. And work with Alstom then to share their models and then just make leapfrog steps. The other thing that's interesting in terms of development now is packaging. So like all the applications we talk about, to Tom's point, how you package is really going to matter in terms of this cost, how you can put it in a vehicle, what size of stacks are. Those kind of nuances is, again, a place where we're focusing a lot of effort to make it right for the application and get the cost down.

Your next question today is coming from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.

If you could just comment on some of the climate-related proposals in the U.S. I know they've stalled more recently, but just helping us think about the slower BEV adoption scenario versus the faster. And it seems like the curves, which I believe you said you source from McKinsey are largely looking at medium-duty having a much bigger acceleration, and it seems like the heavy duty is fairly limited between the slower and faster adoption. But if you can just comment at all on -- your views on the likelihood of some form of U.S. climate package passing at some point either this year or in the future, and what the key proposals would be that could potentially drive especially some of the fuel cell and hydrogen-related credits that could push some of the heavy-duty adoption higher.

Thanks for that question, Courtney. I would say that the only thing more difficult of prognosticating on the economy is what Congress will do. But I will say this, we maybe saw that I went to the White House to talk about the Build Back Better Act and why Cummins is vocally supporting it. There's a lot in that bill, some of which we like and some of which we don't. But as you heard in our talk, we think that climate change is going to impact our lives significantly. And we all care about our kids and our grandkids and what world they're going to experience. And we see impacts today, very concerning impacts today. Our industry burns a lot of fuel and therefore, produces a lot of carbon. So we feel strongly that the industry needs to respond. We need to decarbonize. And the truth is, today, it's not economically attractive for our customers to buy zero carbon solutions. It just isn't. They can't operate them cost effectively, which means they go out of business, which means all their orders get canceled and then who cares. So we need infrastructure, we need investment, we need incentives in some places. And most of all, as Jen mentioned in her talk, we need a price on carbon. And so we have been vocally advocating for all those things with the Congress, with the White House. And so we're supporting the Build Back Better Act because it has some of those things in it. Not all of them, by the way, not the price of carbon, which I noted to the President in the brief moment that I had. But it does have some important incentives on the production of hydrogen, especially green hydrogen, on the distribution of hydrogen, on electric vehicles and charging that I think are essential. The other thing I would just say, and that I say in every one of my meetings in Washington, all of our leaders do is that the time to start was yesterday. So whatever we're doing, it's too slow, move faster. And so you might think a diesel engine maker who makes a lot of money selling internal combustion engines when you say move slower, but it's not right. And that's why we built the company we built, is because we think we can advocate for the right things that we'd be proud to tell our kids and grandkids and we can still make money doing it. And that's what we're advocating for. So I would just say I really don't know what's going to happen with the bill. It seemed to me when I was visiting there that they were looking like they were going to split it up. They were going to try to divide up the climate sections with the other sections because they had a bunch of us, a bunch of CEOs, in there to talk about the different sections. It looked like that's what they're going to do, but I really just don't know. And I just want to say that we need to move faster. The only thing I would add is that in Europe, we see things moving faster. And frankly, we're concerned it gives European-based companies an advantage in technology over American-based companies. And if we don't get moving in the U.S. to push harder on climate change-related infrastructure and requirements, I worry that our companies drop behind. So we are investing significantly in Europe. You heard Amy's investment in electrolyzers, our latest plant announcement was in Spain. And I told the White House that we'd be happy to invest in the U.S. We just need some demand, and there's more demand in Europe. So I do think that both the impetus for the planet and the impetus for our competitiveness, both say, move faster. Jen, anything you'd add to that?

Yes. I want to add -- you heard me talk about the pacing factors for adoption, and the regulation is really a key one to drive infrastructure to ensure that there's wells to wheels decarbonization. If infrastructure itself isn't decarbonized, that doesn't really solve the climate change issue. And you can, on paper, say a technology is capable of meeting the customer need and the reality is that customers want to be sure. They need to be demonstrated. They need to have confidence and regulation is a way to progressively drive adoption across these markets and build confidence in the capability, and infrastructure is really important. And so as Tom said, we are very actively out educating and advocating for our destination zero-strategy with many stakeholders, including the regulators, because we feel so strongly that we need to start now that we need to focus on the entire business and that regulation will play an important role in the journey.

Tom, some of your comments segue into my next question, which is really when you've laid out a good case for why you have several key advantages from the balance sheet, customer relationships and service perspective over some of the startups in the New Power segment. But how about -- how do you view the competition from OEM incumbents, particularly some of the Europeans that you mentioned where they are seeing some more support over there? But how do you see that relationship playing out? I know you said you're not going to acknowledge every platform win that you necessarily have. But what's the risk to some of the other legacy incumbents doing some of this in-house as well?

Thanks, Courtney. And by the way, we are not refraining from announcement out of the [indiscernible], we're not announcing because they don't want us to. They want to choose when they want to announce what they want to announce, and they want to position their company as successfully as they can. So -- but your point is completely on point. It's valid. We see our cooperation and collaboration and competition with OEMs in much the same way as we do today with Engines. We believe that they will indeed offer fuel cell, electric, BEV and other solutions in the future that they will design and they will integrate. And they will offer solutions that we design and we integrate. And in the ones that they integrate, they will use components of ours. That's why, as Amy said, this acquisition of Meritor or pending acquisition is to try to give us more ways to deliver both components and systems to the OEMs. And our expectation is a company with significant resources like many of these global truck companies have, will pick their largest running ones and they'll probably do most of the integration for the big running one themselves. And then there'll be -- have tons of others that they'll want to say, well, I think you'll just integrate those, the buses or the smaller running ones, and we'll buy components from those systems on our -- the one that we integrate. That's what we expect. And what we've noticed from them is 2 things. One is they love to have some competition. So they like it if we were not the only provider, which is, of course, why they don't want to always announce when they partner with us. Second of all, they would like us to participate because they believe and trust that we'll actually invest enough to go the whole distance. And they're not so sure about the start-up company's ability to go to distance. They want to have some competition. They want to announce a partnership with them because that way, there's somebody around to keep us honest. But honestly, they're very worried about whether they're going to make the whole trip.

Yes. And Tom, I would just add, one of the interesting things we're seeing in New Power that at first surprised me is the number of OEMs right now, because of the diversity of projects they want to pursue, willing to outsource the entire powertrain work to us. which, of course, in the engine side doesn't happen. And so while I agree with Tom that the way I see this playing out in the next 10 to 15 years is, over time, we'll have some niches here and there. They'll have some things they want to do themselves. There'll be multiple suppliers. In the meantime, right now, in the next 10 years, I think we'll have whole powertrain platforms with major OEMs of all shapes and sizes, and we will be delivering on those. And then we're the ones learning and building that expertise to drive into the components. So I think that's a really important nuance to note, and it's exciting for us because, again, we're in there and we keep seeing these opportunities coming out as quotes for the whole thing.

Your next question comes from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer.

Thanks. You talked today about the importance of the company's service and support infrastructure as fleets are transitioning to alternative fuels. For the markets and customers that are making that transition now, what are you learning in terms of how you have to tailor your services, your distribution, your aftermarket presence? It really seems like the challenges so far, at least in scaling these new markets are around, frankly, delivering better performing vehicles and developing the fueling infrastructure perhaps less intensity of aftermarket service. So just curious to understand how you are evolving the organization and growing it to meet those customers' needs.

I'll add a few comments and then, Amy, you may want to add on, right? So realize that as customers start to move, they're going to have mixed fleets, right, because they've got products that they're operating for a number of years. And so what they really want is somebody that can help them in terms of service and support of this mixed fleet through the transition and start to build the capability in these new technologies, which really positions us ideally to build on the knowledge of the application, the service network that we have, the aftermarket business that we have and then begin to add, as adoption starts to occur, capability for these new technologies and flowing parts and service through our existing business. And so we're trying to do that in a stepwise way and make it as seamless as possible for those end-customers who are dealing with multiple technologies.

Yes. And on the battery and hydrogen side, I just want to point out maybe the obvious that there are significant safety concerns that our customers have. And so having a footprint where we can focus the right safety handling of batteries, for example, when a battery needs refurbished, how to refurbish those. So it's not in a battery electric vehicle like there's a ton of parts, but services of handling the batteries, having a safe place to go, knowing how to transport and refurbish is going to be a huge opportunity. We've already started accelerating our investment there, where the vehicles are that we're putting in place so that we're giving our OEMs an advantage to have service support right there for their bus customers and others, and then we'll build that out over time. And on the hydrogen side, the similar dynamic that dealing with hydrogen and electrification in vehicles. On the hydrogen side, I think there'll be more parts. It's a much more complex system, so you'll have both that piece of it and also the safety piece to contend with. So those are some things that I think we're working on now to build out that footprint and make sure that we have safe places to go and make that a differentiating advantage in a way to build trust with the customers as they take on these vehicles.

I mean the number of locations where you can actually set up hydrogen infrastructure and actually allow testing and things is very limited today. Amy and I visited our EDI company that builds -- the division that builds vehicles for us for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and it took us a long time to figure out how to get permissions to -- we finally moved our location to a place where permissions were already there. So it's really -- it's a significant issue, as Amy said. So right now, I think it's not something that people are really focused on. But once they do, they're going to be really surprised with the advantage that we have already built out with our service and support network.

Well, I think we're going to...

Thank you so much. I appreciate your question. I want to thank everybody. Again, those of you that know me know that I would have much rather been in person seeing all of you and talking with you. And that said, I think it was really important that we had the opportunity to talk about our strategy. You can probably hear from all of us that we are really excited about what's in front of us. We are fully committed to not only helping our industry decarbonize by doing it in a way that creates value and sustained growth for shareholders. It is our purpose and our mission, and we're all about it. And we think we're positioned well to do it. So again, we really appreciate all of your support and confidence in Cummins. Thank you for your questions. Thanks for your attention. I look forward to the day -- next day we can do this in person. So thank you.