Custom Truck One Source, Inc. ($CTOS)

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Brian Perman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Brian, please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Before we begin, we would like to remind you, management's commentary and responses to questions on today's call may include forward-looking statements which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control. Although these forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, actual results may differ materially. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to the Risk Factors section of the company's filings with the SEC. Additionally, please note that you can find reconciliations of the historical non-GAAP financial measures discussed during the call in the press release we issued yesterday after the market closed. That press release and our first quarter investor presentation are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. Yesterday afternoon, we also filed our first quarter 2026 10-Q with the SEC. Today's discussion of our results of operations for Custom Truck One Source Inc., or Custom Truck is presented on a historical basis as of or for the 3 months ended March 31, 2026 in prior periods. Also, a reminder that beginning this quarter, our financial reporting reflects our 2 new operating segments: Specialty Equipment Rentals or SER and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing or STEM, while our 2026 results in our earnings press release and SEC filings reflect the application of intersegment pricing and margins as per accounting requirements for intersegment sales. The segment results for 2025 reflect the intersegment sales with no margin as no intersegment agreement was in place in the period. For an illustrative comparison of what the 2025 results would have been had intersegment sales been reflected with the appropriate gross margin and had other internal accounting policies been in place at the time, please see the appendix of the Q1 investor presentation posted on our Investor Relations website. Also, certain data in the appendix of the investor deck for Q1 and Q2 2025 for our STEM segment was corrected to reflect an internal error. Full year 2025 STEM results were not impacted by the change. Joining me today are Ryan McMonagle, CEO; and Chris Eperjesy, CFO. I will now turn the call over to Ryan.

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. 2026 is off to a great start as we delivered record first quarter revenue, driven by continued strong momentum in our core end markets and excellent execution by our team. In the first quarter, we generated revenue of $462 million and adjusted EBITDA of $98 million, up more than 9% and 33% year-over-year. The key driver of our performance in the quarter was continued strength in our Specialty Equipment Rentals segment as the improvement we experienced throughout last year in the transmission and distribution markets continued into Q1. Our rental fleet averaged 81.4% utilization during the quarter, up 370 basis points from Q1 of last year. This was supported by continued robust levels of OEC on rent which averaged $1.34 billion in Q1, up 12% year-over-year. So far in Q2, both measures have continued to strengthen with utilization in OEC on rent currently trending above our first quarter averages. We ended quarter with total OEC of $1.66 billion, the highest quarter end level in our history, which will support our expectation for continued growth in SER revenues this year. Also, the average age of our fleet is less than 3 years old, which we believe is 1 of the youngest fleets in the industry and positions us well to support our customers. Our trucks and equipment continue to power the people who strengthen and build critical infrastructure in the U.S. and Canada. The market has been focused on the durability of demand in T&D and our ability to convert improving rental KPIs into earnings and cash flow. And we believe our trending results over recent quarters speak directly to that. Bidding activity and ongoing conversations with our customers, lead us to believe that these conditions will persist throughout 2026 and beyond. Performance of our Specialty Truck and Equipment Manufacturing segment in the first quarter was strong. reflecting continued healthy end market demand and order flow. For Q1, STEM revenue, excluding sales to our SER segment, were up 5% year-over-year. We also saw gross margin expand in the quarter, driven by significant cost out and productivity improvements, led by our production team. New sales order backlog ended the first quarter at $411 million, up more than $76 million or 23% from the end of Q4. Our backlog has continued to grow so far in Q2. As we've noted in prior periods, backlog can move quarter-to-quarter with delivery timing and production schedules, so we also focus on order activity and conversion. We saw strong year-over-year net order growth of 13% in Q1, with particular strength coming from our local and regional customers. Despite slower growth in the infrastructure end market, the continued strength in order growth in our ongoing conversations with our customers provide us with the confidence to expect another year of growth in STEM not including intersegment sales to our SCR segment. CTOS is well positioned with our young rental fleet, current inventory positions and strong relationships with our chassis OEM partners, to navigate the impact of the EPA's 2027 emission standards. We are affirming our previous full year 2026 revenue outlook which we updated earlier this month solely to reflect our new segment reporting with no change to consolidated guidance. We expect consolidated revenue in the range of [indiscernible] to $2.12 billion. Given strong conditions in the T&D end markets, we are raising both the bottom and top ends of our adjusted EBITDA guidance and now project a range of $415 million to $440 million. Despite some macroeconomic volatility, we continue to be optimistic about our business. Long-term, sustained end market demand is buoyed by secular megatrends and our ability to provide exceptional execution on behalf of our customers sets us apart from our competition. Our long-standing relationships with our strategic suppliers and customers continue to be keys to our success. I continue to have the highest degree of confidence in the custom truck team and want to thank everyone for their hard work and dedication that helped achieve our strong results in the first quarter. We look forward to updating everyone soon. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to walk through the numbers in more detail.

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with the consolidated results for the quarter, then discuss segment performance, our balance sheet, liquidity and leverage; and finally, our 2026 outlook. Before I begin, I would like to expand somewhat on Brian's comments in his introduction about our segment reporting. As a reminder, because of reporting guidelines for segment reporting, the segment data included in our earnings press release for periods prior to January 1 of this year, are not fully comparable to the current year data, largely because 2025 results disclosed in our press release do not include any margin on intersegment sales. In the appendix of the deck we posted on our Investor Relations site in early April, we included reconciliations of our historical 2024 and 2025 quarterly segment data and an attempt solely to illustrate what those results would have been had our new segment reporting accounting and intersegment sales and margin agreements been in place at such time. The appendix of our first quarter 2026 investor presentation includes our segment data for 2026 and as presented in our earnings press release with additional adjustments shown so revenues and expenses are presented on the same basis as our 2025 as adjusted results. For illustrative purposes, we provide a comparison of the as adjusted data for Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. All year-over-year comparisons in my portion of the call are based on the figures in our earnings press release. To the extent you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to Brian in Investor Relations. Our first quarter 2026 results reflect stronger operating performance across the business and improved rental fundamentals, particularly in our T&D end markets. For the first quarter, total revenue was $462 million and adjusted EBITDA was $98 million, representing 9% and 33% growth, respectively, versus Q1 2025. Turning to our segments in SER -- revenue, excluding intersegment sales, was $194 million, up 16% year-over-year driven by strong double-digit growth in both rental revenue and rental equipment sales activity. Segment adjusted EBITDA of $105 million was up 23% year-over-year with segment adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 of 51.5%, up more than 415 basis points versus Q1 2025. Our key rental KPIs in SCR remained quite strong in Q1, continuing the momentum we experienced in 2025. In Q1, utilization averaged 81.4% and of 370 basis points versus Q1 2025. Average OEC on rent in the quarter was $1.34 billion, up more than $141 million or 12% and versus the same period in 2025. On rent yield in the first quarter was 38.9%, reflecting both sequential quarterly and year-over-year increases. On rent yield remained within our targeted upper 30s to low 40% range, and we continue to see opportunities for rate improvement as transmission mix grows and pricing discipline holds. Our current historically strong rental KPIs reflect both increased rental activity and the continued scaling of our fleet to meet demand. Net rental CapEx in Q1 was more than $49 million, and our fleet age at quarter end was just under 3 years, a modest increase from the end of last quarter which is consistent with our plan to reduce maintenance CapEx and age the fleet somewhat this year. Our OEC in the rental fleet ended the quarter at almost $1.66 billion, up more than $107 million versus the end of Q1 2025 and up more than $18 million in the quarter. The increase reflects disciplined fleet investment against strong demand, particularly in T&D. We expect to continue to invest in the fleet in 2026, our planned decrease in maintenance CapEx in 2026 compared to 2025 should contribute to increased free cash flow generation this year. In STEM, first quarter third-party revenue was $268 million, up 5% year-over-year, comprising equipment sales growth of more than 4% and parts sales and service revenue growth of almost 17%. And STEM segment adjusted EBITDA was $33 million, and segment adjusted EBITDA margin was 9% in the quarter. Recall that our 2025 segment adjusted EBITDA does not include any margin on intersegment sales while 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA does. STEM margin gains in the quarter were driven by significant cost out and productivity improvements, led by our production team. Importantly, our new sales backlog ended Q1 at $411 million, up more than $76 million sequentially and within our expected range of roughly 4 to 6 months. We've continued to see strong order growth so far in Q2 2026, and our backlog currently stands at more than $425 million. Turning to the balance sheet and liquidity. With LTM adjusted EBITDA to more than $408 million and net debt of $1.65 billion, we finished Q1 with net leverage of slightly more than 4x -- this represents an approximately 30 basis point sequential improvement and approximately 80 basis points versus Q1 2025. Availability under our ABL was $257 million as of March 31, and -- and based on our borrowing base, we have more than $190 million of additional availability that we can potentially access by upsizing our existing facility. Free cash flow generation and deleveraging remain key focus areas for us -- our inventory increased during the first quarter reflects seasonal order flow. Even with that increase, we expect to reduce inventory and floor plan balances over the balance of 2026, which should support improved free cash flow generation. With respect to our 2026 guidance, the macro demand across our key end markets remains very strong. We expect the STEM segment to continue to benefit from an overall favorable macro demand environment as well as strong relationships with our key customers and chassis and attachment suppliers. Our strong order backlog supports us. In our SER segment, OEC on rent and utilization reached historically high levels in the second half of fiscal 2025. And consistent with our Q1 results, we expect this trend to continue in 2026. Demand for our equipment that serves the T&D utility markets continues at record levels, and we expect the locational rental market to provide incremental growth as we further penetrate this expanding end market. We finished 2025 with the average age of our fleet at just over 2.9 years, down by more than a year since the beginning of fiscal 2022. As a result, we expect to be able to significantly reduce our overall investment in our rental fleet in 2026, while continuing to generate growth. Our increase in fleet age to just under 3 years in the first quarter reflects us. We expect to grow our rental fleet based on net OEC by mid-single digits in 2026, with a net investment in our rental fleet of approximately $150 million to $170 million a meaningful reduction from our $250 million in 2025. I -- after prior year's investments in inventory, driven by the strong demand environment, we expect to continue making progress on further net working capital improvements in 2026 and as we continue on our path of reducing inventory months on hand to our targeted range of below 6 months. As a result, we expect to generate more than $50 million of levered free cash flow and reduce our net leverage ratio to meaningfully below 4x by the end of fiscal 2026 while progressing towards our 3x net leverage target in 2027. Our firm 2026 revenue guidance reflects total revenue in the range of $2.005 billion to $2.12 billion. Given conditions in the T&D end markets, we are raising both the bottom and top ends of our adjusted EBITDA guidance and now project a range of $415 million to $440 million, resulting in year-over-year revenue growth of 3% to 9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% to 15%. We still expect nonrental CapEx of $40 million to $50 million. Our segment guidance for 2026 remains unchanged. And we are projecting SCR revenue of $835 million to $870 million and STEM revenue of $1.58 billion to $1.655 billion. with STEM third-party revenue growth of 3% to 10%. Overall STEM sales, including intersegment sales, are expected to be flat to slightly down solely as a result of the expected reduction in SCR maintenance rental CapEx this year. Despite Q2 of 2025 being a tough comp given the near record level of new equipment sales in the quarter, given current trends, we do expect to show year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA in Q2. In closing, I want to echo Ryan's comments regarding our continued strong business outlook. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty recent results and end market fundamentals support our confidence in the long-term demand drivers and our ability to deliver meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth this year. With that, operator, we can open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Michael Shlisky of DA Davidson & Co.

Maybe starting off with the tariff question. Any worries you have on the recent changes with the Section 232 tariffs, either on recent quotes you've made recently or what's in your backlog. Can you compare what the OEMs are saying on chassis pricing because of the tariffs compared to what you may be seeing from the body or back part of the truck that you're building?

Yes. Mike, good to talk to you, and great question. I think we're in a pretty good spot when it comes to our tariffs as we talked about, obviously, having inventory on the ground puts us in a good position. We are seeing a little bit of tariff exposure on some of our bodies because of 232. And -- but I think the team has done a good job of managing that. And so I feel like we're well positioned. And then OEMs, as we're talking with OEMs that it is a discussion, but the bigger discussion right now seems to be giving orders for them heading into 2027. So I think we're in a good spot overall, Mike.

Okay. Great. And then your metric of the average age being at roughly 3 years, that's up for the first time in quite some time. Can you maybe comment on how far ahead of the second place player are you on, on average age? I'm kind of wondering how much can you age the fleet and still be reasonably ahead of the peers and have a great looking fleet? Is there a very big cash piece that you could be getting if you, let's say, to a half year or a year. Would you kind of still be in front of your larger peers on the fleet side?

Yes, it's a great question. And there's not great data on the other fleets and age of fleet. So it's more just based on feel on what we hear from our customers in particular. But I'll give you this data point. I think when we put the businesses together back in 2021, the average age of the fleet was just about 4 years. So we're about a year younger than we were then. And I think the business performed well at that age, too. So I think that's kind of the band that we've talked about. We've been as low as 2.9. We're still under 3. And 4 years ago, we were about just under 4 years old. And so that feels like a good band. And you're right, there's real cash generation in there as you think about it, but most important, as you know, it's taking care of the customer and making sure -- taking care of the customer and making sure we give them the product that they need to keep them working and to provide for what our trucks do.

Your next question comes from Daniel Hultberg with Oppenheimer & Co.

Congrats on the quarter. I want to hold in on margin a little bit. I mean, obviously, the rental revenue growth is strong and that is higher margin. But -- you also mentioned productivity improvement, and I see in the deck has affected cost management. So could you please elaborate on that and what you're doing on the cost side to drive margin here as well as how it pertains to the guidance increase?

Yes. Great question. And the team -- thanks for asking that question, too. The team has done a great job of just managing through our overall cost structure. So there's been a lot of efforts underway by our production team to drive productivity improvement. And I think we're seeing kind of the benefits of that. And then as we've talked about, I don't know a few prior calls, we continue to evaluate our overall cost structure. And so the team has done a good job to just rightsize the cost structure for us really, as it comes to our production efforts, which is why you see the expansion and STEM gross margin, in particular.

Got it. And then on OEC yield, I mean, reflected the last quarter, up 40 basis points year-on-year this quarter. Could you speak to the pricing environment and the opportunity there? And kind of like what is embedded in the guidance as it is.

Sure. I think, Daniel, we talked about on the last call that we took a price increase on the rental side of the business in December of last year. It was about a 5% price increase that we took in December. And so some of that is what's flowing through the on-rent yield number that you see. And then the other thing that's flowing through there is mix. So -- as we've talked about the transmission is coming on very strong. That's at a higher yield than distribution. And so just because of the the type of equipment that we're renting there. And so I think that's been influencing yield as well. So the price, as we've talked about in the past, price takes a full year, right, to cycle through cycle through the fleet just because of the way that we increase price, which is only as new equipment goes out on rent. And then the mix impact will be a little bit of a function of how strong transmission stays, which is what we expect over the balance of 2026.

And Daniel, maybe just -- this is Chris. Maybe just to add a little bit. Part of your question was about guidance and we raised the EBITDA guidance really because as Ryan was touching on the rental business is outperforming, but then also, he just touched on some of the operating execution that is happening. So it really is a combination of those 2, the mix and the operating execution and not so much anything on the top line in terms of a more aggressive top line assumption.

Your next question comes from Justin Hauke with Baird.

I guess I just wanted to drill into the EBITDA guidance, the increase a little bit more. I mean it's great to see. Obviously, we're always looking for more. But I mean, if I look at the quarter, you guys were thinking EBITDA would be up kind of 10% plus. And you meaningfully be that. So you're kind of like $10 million to $15 million ahead of what you're guiding to. You raised by $5 million. So I'm just curious, I mean, is that conservatism? Is that anything that was maybe a onetime pull forward in the quarter that was unusually strong? Or just kind of how to think about how that $5 million factored into that raise?

Yes, Justin, this is Chris. If you look at Q1, Q1 of last year was going to be our easiest comp. And so I think our actual guidance said that we were going to be up double digits. I don't think we necessarily banded what we thought that was going to be. Clearly, rental continues to outperform. I think [indiscernible] rent is up $160 million, $170 million through the first 4 months of this year. And so we're continuing to see that strong performance. And so really, it is that mix that's driving it. But as you look at Q2, you're going to see the exact opposite. That's a pretty tough comp for us. We talked about this last year on the call. We had 2 months within the quarter that had new sales, third-party new sales above $110 million, and those were the only 2 months outside of December that were ever above $100 million. And so it's going to be a much tougher comp here in Q2. And we're just -- I don't know that I would say we're being conservative, but we're certainly being prudent. We felt it was the right thing to do to increase our guidance. But we feel comfortable on that $415 million to $440 million range. We'll adjust it as the year goes on if it makes sense to do so.

Okay. Fair enough. I guess my next question, we've been seeing a lot more articles about like political pushback on data centers and some of these projects kind of getting pushed out. And I know your direct exposure to data centers has been pretty modest, but the impact to some of these interconnect T&D projects and things like that. I'm just curious if you're seeing anything where there's that's having a discernible impact or that's just kind of noise in the market in terms of people procuring in anticipation of that work.

Yes, it's a great question. We're still seeing strong demand from our customers for equipment. So when you look at, obviously, public companies sentiment and reported backlog, it's still continuing to increase. And then our conversations with our customers are still bullish on additional transmission work that has not yet started, which is a good tailwind for us. And then as we kind of look at the macro factors or the macro reporting around line miles and service and what's coming online. It still feels like that's continuing to be very positive. So I would say the specific noise around data center doesn't seem to be impacting our customers and the work that they are planning to start over the coming quarters and years.

Your next question comes from the line of Naim Kaplan with Deutsche Bank.

Naim on for Nicole DeBlase. So the first question, just wondering, given the substantial macro economic assumptions underpinning your T&D outlook. So specifically, you mentioned 23% expected CAGR in data center power demand. How much of this impending infrastructure wave is already actively reflected in the quoting pipeline. And are there specific specialized equipment category that you foresee could have industry-wide supply chain shortages.

Yes, it's a good question. And I'll maybe speak broadly about transmission specific. We are seeing the demand for transmission equipment continue to pick up. It is not back to the highest levels that it's been over the past several years, but it is continuing to pick up and conversations that we're having with our customers suggest that, that will continue to increase for the foreseeable, certainly for the balance of 2026 and starting to talk about 2027 at this point. So I don't think there is any product category at this point. that we're saying, hey, there could be an issue, right, with availability of equipment, but it continues to be favorable, I'd say, bolus, right, as we're thinking about transmission in particular.

Okay. That is helpful. And then you mentioned the rental business is performing very strong with OEC on rent, utilization and gross margins all continuing to perform ahead of expectations. In 2026, -- so just wondering why you wouldn't raise the guide there. Is there maybe some conservatism?

Yes. I think it's just being thoughtful on as Chris talked about some of how we're thinking about it overall. -- is -- some of it is strong performance on pricing and operating leverage in some of those dynamics. And so I think we just want to be thoughtful heading into the next 9 months of the year.

And maybe just to add a little bit there. And so when I said it was ahead of expectations, the comparison was versus last year and then really ahead of expectations, I think, is really on the margin front and so EBITDA generated. And that's why I think we felt comfortable taking up the EBITDA guide, but leaving the revenue kind of revenue range where it is for now.

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Brophy with Stifel.

Yes. Congrats on the nice quarter. I guess I just want to ask about bidding activity. You mentioned it's quite healthy in your opening comments. Just maybe any more color on what you're seeing there.

Yes, it's -- thanks for the question and good to talk to you. But it's robust, it's probably a fair way to say it. For us, bidding activity happens most on the transmission side of things. And so there are several specific projects that are in process where we're bidding on those and are waiting on awards to be made. And so I think that it continues to remain robust, and we think it should be well positioned for the rest of '26 and heading into 2027.

And then on the new equipment side, last year, there was some discussion on some pricing pressure that you were seeing. It doesn't appear that you guys mentioned that this quarter -- but just curious, the latest you're seeing on the pricing front on the new equipment side?

Yes. I think compared to this time last year, certainly, it's more stable. There certainly still is some pressure Ryan touched a little bit on the cost improvement and productivity initiatives we've had that have benefited somewhat on margin and so been able to offset some of that pressure. But I think the way I would characterize it is it's certainly a lot more stable than it was this time last year.

Your next question comes from the line of Manish Somaiya with Cantor Fitzgerald.

It's Manish. So two questions. First is on STEM. Can we just talk about how we should think the normalized margins for STEM. And then just related to that, the backlog was up nicely on a sequential basis. If you can just talk about what's driving that, what are the conversations like with your customers? And really more importantly, what's the customer composition like? Because obviously, you do have a lot of -- so obviously, with the macro environment, I wanted to get a feel for what that backlog segmentation look like.

Yes, this is Chris. I'll start on the margin. Historically, we've given guidance on the biggest component of the STEM sales, certainly, the external sales is going to be our third providing new sales. And we've given guidance as into [indiscernible] a couple of years ago, we were pushing that 18%, even slightly higher. This past year, we were closer to the 15%. We've seen that go up now here in the last couple of quarters, and we're living closer to 16%. And -- so I think that still is a good range in that 15% to 18%. We're probably going to live closer to the 16% to 17% range this year. But I think that's the best way to model it.

And then Manish, the way to think about backlog, and it's a great question, is -- we are seeing -- we actually saw the biggest pickup in backlog in our small customers. So we break them into kind of our local and regional customers in particular. And so that's actually where we did see the biggest increase in backlog. So I think on that side, that's the customer side. And then from a product standpoint, look, utility is very strong. And so we did see a pickup in backlog in our utility and Forestry segment kind of more broadly. With those small customers. And then where we've still seen less of a pickup is on the infrastructure side of things. So still in the waste segment and dump truck segment we've not seen a significant pickup at yet in backlog. So I hope that helps.

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

So question on the SEM segment. The backlog saw impressive growth. Can you speak to how much of the backlog is for 2026 versus beyond that?

Yes, it's a great question and good to talk to you, Tammy. Yes, the far majority of it is -- will be for 2026 deliveries. Very little at this point that we would not be able to deliver in 2026.

Understood. And because you resegmented your disclosures I'm just curious, of the $415 million to $440 million EBITDA guide that you have for the year, could you speak to what would be the mix from the 2 segments, SER versus TAM in that full year number?

Tammy, this is Chris. We don't give guidance for the segment EBITDA. But if you look at the prior year, you can get a relatively relatively comparable mix. Certainly, given the guidance we've given this year, there may be a little bit of a shift towards SCR. But I would look at what we disclosed on April 1, and you can use that as a proxy.

That's super helpful. If I can ask one last question...

One other point I'd want to make as you do that, remember that you're going to have the 2 segment adjusted EBITDAs, which are going to be a higher number than our guidance because you have to take into account the corporate unallocated costs, which also you'll be able to find in that April 1 presentation.

Understood. That's very helpful. And 1 last one. The debt paydown target 3x leverage by next year. Do you expect any debt paydown or this is all coming from EBITDA growth?

It will be both. This year, we guided...

Any debt pay down this year?

Yes, we guided levered free cash flow north of $50 million, that would all be used to pay down debt.

Your next question comes from the line of Abe Landa with Bank of America.

Just one quick housekeeping. I know last year within your STEM segment, it doesn't include margins kind of on that intersegment sales. I guess if we were to look at it from an apples-to-apples perspective, what would that change have been I don't have the figure right off the top of my head.

But if you look in the April 1 presentation that we put out there on our website and as well as the 1 we just posted, I think, last night, that information is in there.

Okay. And then, I guess, just shifting gears to just the general environment obviously, a lot of data centers, a lot more that, that generation is on site. Are you seeing that impact demand in any way, whether mix or actual absolute level of demand? And maybe how that shift and just the general data center build-out is impacting buy versus rent decisions by utilities, contractors, et cetera?

Yes, it's a great question. And I would say, generally, it is not impacting our demand. And so it's something we watch, but it's not anything significant that is impacting kind of our business drive.

And it's not impacting that buy versus that...

Yes, not significantly. As we've talked about in the past, transmission is often rented just because of the nature of the equipment. Distribution is more commonly bought and rented. And so no real significant shift from the type of work that's being done that's impacting buy versus rent.

And then lastly, just -- I know you -- I wonder if you could provide -- I think longer term, you're saying that inventory levels are going to be below 6 months by year-end. I guess could you give a number or what that number is today and how you expect that to trend during the year? And do you expect the EPA 2027 rules have any impact on that? And then just overall kind of related to the overall unworking capital, like -- what are you assuming for working capital for the year with that inventory reduction being offset by revenue growth?

Yes, this is Chris. What we've said with respect to inventory is, I think we're somewhere north of 7%, probably closer to $7.5 million months right now. It is typical if you look back over the past 4 or 5 years to see an increase in Q1, just kind of seasonal timing and getting ready for the second half of the year. And so that this year is pretty consistent with that. And I would say we're only slightly higher than kind of our expectation for this time of the year, and I would say, less than $10 million higher than we had kind of forecasted coming into the year. And so we had given some guidance that we'd expect to get north of $100 million year-over-year out of inventory as part of our working capital initiative this year. And I would just point out that, that $100 million doesn't translate to $100 million of cash because between 75% and 80% of the inventory is floor planned. And so typically, if you reduce inventory by $100 million, you may get $20 million of cash. And so that would be the working capital component of it. And so that's the way I would look at it. So in terms of our guide of levered free cash flow, $50 million for the year, you're probably going to get between $30 million and $40 million of working capital.

And then Abe, let me just hit EPA '27 because it's a good question. I think we're in a really good spot, and there's 3 things that I would like to highlight when we talk about the impact. One is the age of the fleet. I think having pieces in our fleet that are under 3 years. I think it positions us really well for kind of the changes that are coming with the new engines. I think having inventory on the ground. So Chris mentioned we're just over 7%, 7.5% now and being at 6 months at the end of the year, I think we'll be well positioned with kind of current model year chassis heading into next year. And then I think the last which we can't underestimate, it's just the strength of the relationship with our chassis OEM partners and our dealers. And I think we're very well positioned as we continue to watch how the mandate comes through and what some of the final rulings are from the EPA around the warranty in some of the questions that are still open. So I think we're in a good spot. I think into next year to address it.

Your next question comes from the line of Manish Somaiya with Cantor Fitzgerald. [Operator Instructions]

Can you hear me?

Yes, I hear you.

Okay. Wonderful. So maybe, Ryan, if you can just talk about some of the bottlenecks that could slow execution despite strong end markets? That's question one. And then maybe, Chris, I know you touched on cash flow a little bit, but I'm still trying to figure out what gives you -- or I guess what's going to take over the next 1 or 2 quarters for you guys to raise free cash flow outlook.

Sure. I'll start with just bottlenecks. I think we're in a good spot. We're obviously watching our supply chain closely as transmission seems to be very strong right now. That's working closely with our suppliers. So on the back end, that's that Rx is our largest supplier on the transmission side and some of our pulling and streaming suppliers as well. And then obviously, working closely with our chassis suppliers, also -- so those are -- those are typically larger trucks typically all will drive axles, so 6x6 and 44 chassis. And so I think it's just making sure that, that supply chain continues to perform, which it is which it is currently, but that would be where the bottleneck would come if a bottleneck were to show up. And then I'll let Chris take cash flow.

Yes. On the free cash flow, we talked a little bit about 3 major areas, which are going to drive it. Obviously, if you take the midpoint of our EBITDA guidance, that's going to be up $40 million, $45 million year-over-year. We also talked about the rental CapEx. The investment last year was a net investment. So growth CapEx, maintenance CapEx, less the proceeds from the sales, we had roughly $250 million last year. And we said it's going to be meaningfully less than that this year, in particular on the maintenance CapEx side, roughly $100 million less -- and then the inventory that we were just talking about, the bulk of that is going to come in the second half. And typically, our best free cash flow period is Q4. And so those are going to be 3 main drivers: incremental EBITDA lower net rental CapEx and then some of the working capital unlock that I just talked about. Those will be the 3 main drivers.

There are no further questions at this time. We've reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Ryan McMonagle for closing remarks.

Thanks, everyone, for your time today and your interest in Custom Truck. We appreciate the continued engagement and look forward to updating you next quarter. In the meantime, please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions. Thank you again, and have a great day.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.