Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Daimler Truck's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm Marcus Poppe, Head of Investor Relations at Daimler Truck. On behalf of Daimler Truck, I would like to welcome you to our Q2 earnings global conference call. Joining me today are Karin Radstrom, our CEO; and Eva Scherer, our CFO. Karin and Eva will begin with an introduction directly followed by a Q&A session. The presentation is available on Daimler Truck Investor Relations website. Please note that this conference will be recorded. The replay of the conference call will also be available as an on-demand audio webcast in the Investor Relations section of the Daimler Truck website. I would like to remind you that this teleconference is governed by the safe harbor wording you will find in our published results documents. Please note that our presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to many risks and uncertainties. If the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only to the date on which they are made. With that, let's jump into the results. Karin and Eva will walk you through how the quarter developed. And after that, we will open things up for analyst questions followed by the media. Karin, over to you. Thank you.

Thanks, Marcus, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by sharing the key figures for the quarter. For the group, we generated EUR 12.3 billion in revenue, up 5% with adjusted EBIT of around EUR 800 million and a net profit of EUR 1.5 billion. Earnings per share from continuing and discontinued operations amounted to EUR 1.91. Our balance sheet remains strong with a net industrial liquidity of EUR 8.3 billion. I also brought some business highlights for you. As you might have seen, we pre-released our second quarter results and raised our full-year guidance 2 weeks ago. This increase reflects the strong performance of Trucks North America, driven both by higher expected unit sales for the remainder of the year and the approval of Daimler Truck's U.S. content application. Another important milestone in Q2 was the launch of Daimler Truck Defense. By bringing our defense activities together under one global brand, we can make better use of our global engineering expertise, manufacturing network, sales organization and service capabilities across the whole group, as we continue to grow this business with the ambition of reaching EUR 1 billion in defense-related revenue by 2028. Another area where we continue to make progress is our Mercedes-Benz own retail strategy. The expansion of our service network is helping us to stay close to our customers and grow service revenue. In the second quarter, one big highlight was the integration of eStar in the U.K., which adds 6 new locations to our network. The retail investments are helping us build a stronger, more truck-focused service network, and of course, also supports our ambition to significantly expand our retail presence by 2030. We also continue to invest in the future of our business. Last night, we announced a new U.S. manufacturing facility. This investment gives us the rare opportunity to start with a blank sheet of paper and create a state-of-the-art facility, which will be designed around the latest manufacturing technologies, a flexible production system and, of course, the products that will define our future. Start of production is planned for late 2029. So this is a long-term investment, which reflects our confidence in the U.S. market and our commitment to strengthening our manufacturing footprint. The new facility will help create a production network that's more flexible, resilient and positioned to support future growth. Turning to our Industrial Business performance. Revenue increased 6% year-over-year to EUR 11.4 billion. At the same time, adjusted EBIT declined 22% to EUR 780 million and adjusted return on sales came in at 6.8% compared to 9.2% in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year decline in earnings was driven by North America, mainly due to the ongoing tariff headwinds that were significantly higher than in the second quarter last year. This more than offset the positive earnings contributions from Mercedes-Benz Trucks and Daimler Buses. At Mercedes-Benz, we remained disciplined on cost, and our Cost Down Europe program remains on track. At the same time, we're making significant investments in research and development with a large share flowing directly through the P&L, and therefore, affecting current earnings. It's in line with our commitments that we talked about in our Capital Markets Day last year. Now to orders. Incoming orders remained at a healthy level in the second quarter, reaching around 74,000 units, which is up 27% year-over-year. The 35% sequential decline from Q1 reflects a normalization following our exceptionally strong first quarter and does not indicate a change in the underlying market environment. Unit sales were up 8% year-over-year, totaling around 87,000 units for quarter 2, resulting in a book-to-bill of 86%. The backlog decreased compared to the first quarter, but remained on a very healthy level at approximately 50% above last year and well above historical averages. So we have good visibility for the remainder of 2026. Our zero-emission sales increased to around 1,400 units in the second quarter, up 21% year-over-year. Now turning to our markets. We continue to hold leading positions in both of our key regions. In North America, the Class 8 market totaled 66,000 units in the second quarter, down 6% year-over-year. What's encouraging is that order activity remains supportive, and we are confident in a strong second half of the year. At the same time, the market remains below previous cycle highs. And retail sales are still running below last year's levels following the soft start to 2026. With a market share of 38% year-to-date, we maintained our leading position in the market. In Europe, the heavy-duty market expanded by 10% year-over-year to approximately 164,000 units. Growth was supported mainly by a strong demand in Spain, Poland and Lithuania, while some of our major markets like Germany, France and the U.K. remained below market average year-to-date. We further strengthened our leadership position in Europe's medium and heavy-duty segments, achieving an overall market share of 18.9%. In zero-emission trucks, we achieved around 38% share of the European heavy-duty segment in the first half of 2026. So we are clearly leading. Even though zero-emission truck adoption in Europe remains at an early stage, registrations increased to around 6% of total registrations in Q2, which is up from approximately 2% in the previous quarter and in 2025. We believe we are well positioned to benefit from the continued transition towards sustainable transportation. So we're seeing very different dynamics across our markets, but our competitive position remains strong. Now, handing over to you, Eva, to take us through the individual segments and some of the drivers behind the results.

Thank you, Karin, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with Trucks North America. In the second quarter, revenue increased by 2% year-over-year to around EUR 5.2 billion, driven by an 8% increase in unit sales. Compared to the first quarter, revenue was up 35%. Adjusted EBIT more than doubled from the first quarter, increasing to EUR 435 million from EUR 209 million. Adjusted return on sales improved from 5.4% to 8.4%. While profitability remained below last year's strong level of 12.9% due to significant tariff headwinds, we benefited from higher volumes, pricing actions and continued cost discipline. Order intake reached more than 35,000 units during the quarter, up 156% year-over-year. Demand in North America remains very healthy and fleet replacement continues as freight conditions normalize. Moreover, since the beginning of the third quarter, we have seen increased activity from our rental, leasing and other large fleet customers, resulting in a July Class 8 order share of 45%. At Mercedes-Benz Trucks, revenue increased to EUR 5.3 billion, up 10% year-over-year and 15% compared to the first quarter. Adjusted EBIT increased to EUR 317 million from EUR 283 million a year ago, resulting in an adjusted return on sales of 6%. Group sales increased 10% to nearly 39,000 units, supported by stronger market conditions in Europe. Order intake reached around 35 -- reached around 34,000 units, a decrease of 11% year-over-year. In Europe, demand remained solid, and group sales increased by 36%. Profitability benefited from higher volumes and ongoing progress under our Cost Down Europe program. At the same time, earnings were affected by the ramp-up of our new global parts distribution center in Halberstadt and higher research and development costs in the P&L, driven by a reduced capitalization rate of 10.7% from 17.7% in the second quarter 2025. Due to increased inflationary headwinds, net price/cost remained negative in the second quarter. As we expect cost pressures to increase in the second half of the year, we have introduced additional pricing measures. In Latin America, market conditions remain challenging. While Brazil showed signs of stabilization during the quarter, supported by the Move Brasil program, the overall market remained 10% below prior year levels. Argentina remained under pressure, adding further challenges across the region. As a result, profitability declined year-over-year despite continued pricing actions and cost measures. In India, market demand remained above last year's level, supported by ongoing replacement activity and healthy domestic orders. Revenue of Daimler Buses increased 6% year-over-year to EUR 1.6 billion, reflecting positive net price/cost development, continued growth in our service business and favorable foreign exchange effects. Adjusted EBIT increased to EUR 150 million compared to EUR 147 million a year ago, resulting in an adjusted return on sales of 9.6%. Order intake reached around 5,300 units, a decrease of 25% year-over-year and a book-to-bill ratio of 86%. Unit sales declined primarily due to weaker demand in our chassis business in Latin America and Mexico. At the same time, our integral bus business in Europe continued to perform well. While sales volumes were below the prior year level, profitability remained strong, highlighting the improved resilience of the business. Strong demand in Europe helped offset weaker market conditions in Latin America and Mexico as well as ongoing cost headwinds and high inflation in Turkey. While these circumstances led us to lower our 2026 unit sales outlook, we continue to generate strong financial results. At Daimler Truck Financial Services, return on equity improved significantly in the second quarter. Adjusted EBIT increased to EUR 58 million compared to EUR 23 million in the prior year quarter and EUR 39 million in the first quarter. At the same time, adjusted return on equity more than doubled year-over-year, increasing from 3.1% to 7.5%. The improvement was driven by a stronger interest margin and a more favorable credit risk environment. In North America, improving freight rates and stronger used truck market also contributed positively. Turning to ARCHION. The transaction continues to progress as planned. Following the closing on April 1, we received approximately EUR 1.4 billion in cash. Considering the deconsolidation of the Mitsubishi Fuso cash of EUR 0.3 billion, the net positive cash flow was EUR 1.1 billion. We are now in the final stages of reducing our shareholding to 25%, which is expected to generate an additional cash inflow of EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million. This step supports ARCHION's transition as an independent listed company and its inclusion in the prime standard segment of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The final proceeds from the ARCHION transaction will depend on the outcome of the overallotment option and will be confirmed after August 14. In the second quarter, our at-equity participation in ARCHION contributed EUR 24 million to adjusted EBIT. In reported EBIT, we recorded a gain in the amount of EUR 1.4 billion after deconsolidation and recognition of the at-equity book value as of April 1. As of June 30, we adjusted the carrying value of our ARCHION investment from the initial valuation to the recoverable amount and recognized an impairment loss of EUR 297 million in Q2 within the at-equity result. The ARCHION sales -- the ARCHION shares classified as held for sale were measured at fair value less cost to sell, resulting in an impairment of EUR 222 million. Please note that the gain was recorded in discontinued activities, while the impairment was recorded in continuing activities. The net impact is positive in the amount of EUR 953 million. In the second quarter, we generated a very strong industrial business free cash flow of around EUR 1.8 billion compared to EUR 20 million in the prior year quarter. In addition to the cash inflow from the ARCHION transaction, our operating cash flow in the second quarter was supported by improved working capital management, primarily reflecting optimization of payment terms. As a result, net industrial liquidity increased from EUR 7.1 billion at the end of the first quarter to EUR 8.3 billion at the end of the second quarter. This improvement was achieved despite dividend payments of approximately EUR 1.5 billion and our ongoing share buyback program. Given our strong liquidity position, we intend to launch the second tranche of our ongoing share buyback program immediately after completion of the first tranche, which is expected no later than September 16. The second tranche is planned to be completed no later than June 30, 2027, with a volume of up to EUR 1.1 billion. Now, let me turn to our guidance. Before discussing the changes to our full year outlook, let me briefly revisit the assumptions that underpin our guidance. We continue to expect the North American heavy-duty truck market to land between 250,000 and 290,000 units with a pickup in the second half of the year supported by replacement demand. For the EU30 market, we expect a range of 290,000 and 330,000 units. To date, the Middle East conflict has had only a limited impact on truck demand and global supply chains. Looking ahead, any broader impact will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and could vary by region. At present, macroeconomic indicators point to a more constructive outlook in North America, while sentiment in Europe is stabilizing. As always, our guidance is based on current market assumptions, including the existing USMCA and tariff framework. As Karin mentioned, we raised our full-year outlook for 2026. Let me walk you through the changes. At group level, we now expect adjusted EBIT of EUR 3.6 billion to EUR 4.1 billion. For the Industrial Business, we now expect unit sales of 340,000 to 370,000 vehicles, revenue of EUR 43 billion to EUR 47 billion and an adjusted return on sales of 7% to 9%, all above our previous guidance range. We have also increased our free cash flow outlook to between EUR 3 billion and EUR 3.5 billion. The driver of this upgrade is Trucks North America. Based on the lower anticipated tariff impact, higher expected sales volumes and including closure costs of our Portland manufacturing plant, we now guide for a return on sales of 9% to 11% and unit sales of 160,000 to 180,000 vehicles for the full-year 2026. For the third quarter, we expect profitability to be between 11% and 13%. For Mercedes-Benz Trucks, we continue to expect a return on sales of 6% to 8%. For the third quarter, we currently expect profitability to be in the lower half of the range, reflecting sequentially higher material costs and the resulting negative net price cost effect. For Daimler Buses, continued weakness in Latin America and Mexico has led us to lower our full-year unit sales outlook to between 20,000 and 25,000 units. All other guidance items remain unchanged. For the third quarter, we expect profitability in the upper half of the guidance range. Financial Services remains on track, and we continue to expect an adjusted return on equity of 6% to 8% in 2026. Overall, the second quarter marked a turning point for Daimler Truck. The actions we have taken, together with improving market conditions and a stronger outlook for Trucks North America increase our confidence that the positive trajectory established during the quarter will accelerate significantly in the third quarter. And with that, Marcus, I think we're at a good point to open it up for questions.

Thank you, Karin and Eva. That concludes our presentation for quarter 2 results. As usual, we will start with questions from analysts and move on to the media. Both sessions will be recorded and made available on our website. Before we start, the operator will explain the procedure.

[Operator Instructions] I would like to remind you that this Q&A session will be recorded on Daimler Truck request. The replay of the conference call will also be available as on-demand audio webcast in the Investor Relations section on the Daimler Truck website. [Operator Instructions]

So our first question comes from Nicolai Kempf at Deutsche Bank.

It's Nicolai here from Deutsche Bank. Well done for a solid quarter. Two questions from my side. The first one, the plan to build a new production in U.S. And I know it's early days, but will you try to adjust your overall production capacity in North America once this plant is up and running? And my second one is on Mercedes and especially the profitability in Q3, which appears a bit soft. And for example, some of your Swedish peers have already raised prices twice this year to offset the higher input costs. So was the market not ready to accept higher price for Mercedes? Or have you been a bit too late to raise prices?

Nicolai, Karin here. I'll take the first one, and then, I think Eva can do the second one. So yes, it's early days with this plant, but it is a plant, of course, which will increase our overall production capacity in the North American market. But for now, we don't have any plans to shut down any other factory sites, but we do this out of a strategic position and giving us much more flexibility, both on how we distribute volumes across our network, but also with room to grow into the future, which we believe we have potential to do.

Nicolai, from my side, and thanks for your question. So on the price increases, we actually, in fact, also did communicate 2 price increases in 2026, the first one in March. But this will then only materialize in our P&L in quarter 4 because quarter 2 and quarter 3 were largely booked at this point in time. And then also now in July, we communicated a second price increase, which will then start hitting our P&L positively in quarter 1 next year.

Next question comes from Klas Bergelind at Citi.

I have a couple of questions. First, on the order intake in Mercedes-Benz. Can we talk through the percentage changes quarter-on-quarter across Europe, India and LatAm? And I'm also curious what you see in your European business, including Germany here into the third quarter. And then on DTNA, I'm trying to understand, is this because your build slots are now more full than peers for '26, while orders were weaker than we thought? Or is this some sort of market share loss here that we're looking at? I'll start here on orders.

Klas, sorry, I'm trying to get all the numbers together while answering. So I would say, starting on group level, I think if you look at the order intake first half of the year, we're very comfortable with where we are. And I think also in relation to our peers, we have some strong numbers. In MB specifically, we don't disclose order intake between the different regions, but it was, I think, up in Europe and slightly down in the other regions, right? And down a bit in Latin America, and I think steady in India. So I can give you at least that much.

Yes, Klas. Thank you for your question. So on North America, overall, what I can say that our order book really remains healthy, and it's significantly stronger than a year ago. And when we look at our backlog growth, that really reflects improved customer demand and stronger order intake throughout the current order cycle. And of course, we also align our production plans with market conditions, and we maintain flexibility to respond to customer requirements. And we do see that because freight rates have improved significantly, fleet purchase intentions are rising, replacement demand remains strong. And we do really see that also reflected in our orders as we started the third quarter because our Class 8 order share in July has been at 45%. And this is also showing that we are strongly positioned in the market. And it always has to do a bit of the structure of the orders in the market, which is why you have certain fluctuations overall, but we are not concerned about quarter 2 because we had an exceptionally strong quarter 4 and also quarter 1. And what we do see is that now also starting quarter 3, the larger fleets and the rental and leasing customers are ordering again, and they're placing larger orders again, especially, which is a part of the market that we're particularly exposed to. And so we believe on a year-to-date basis, including July, order intake remains on a very healthy level. And when we look at our production, we have increased our production program now with the recent guidance range for quarter 4. So we have only a couple of slots open, but we're largely booked and very confident in the development there.

All right. My second one is on Mercedes-Benz and the exit rate for the year. So it looks like you need to achieve a very big margin step-up from, say, 6% to 6.5% in the third quarter, almost 10% if you stick to the 7% midpoint range. I hear you that you're increasing prices, but I assume that this fully also assumes that the spare part issue will be completely solved because that is obviously weighing on the mix given the higher margin. So, Eva, can we talk through the moving parts yet to this very strong exit if you are indeed keeping the midpoint of the range for the year, the 7%?

So yes, you're right to assume that it will be a very strong quarter 4 that we're predicting also driven by volumes. So extremely large volumes in quarter 4, but we're used to do that. We usually have very large volumes in quarter 4 of Mercedes-Benz and also the highest profitability in the last quarter of the year. And when it comes to the global spare parts center in Halberstadt, we still believe there will be some ramp-up challenges in quarter 3, but those should be easing in quarter 4. Then, we have the pricing impact, as you correctly stated, that will also positively affect the bottom line in quarter 4. And with that, we do believe that, yes, the exit rate will be at a high level entering then also into 2027.

All right. Very quick final one for me is on the tariff relief. Was that EUR 400 million in total? And am I right that you had about EUR 100 million included earlier in the guide? We're looking at a EUR 300 million delta. And how much was content relief versus MSRP? And if you can confirm that you didn't have any EPA benefit in there?

Thanks, Klas. So as you know, tariff is always a very complicated topic. As we have announced 2 weeks ago, we have received positive feedback on our U.S. content application and that combined with then also the volume upgrade for Daimler Trucks North America that led to our guidance raise, and you can well calculate how much we raised it at the midpoint. What also is considered here is that we have restructuring costs for our Portland plant. So we announced the Portland plant closure last week, and there are restructuring costs associated with it, which we won't adjust because we do have a new guideline for special reporting items, and we do not want to adjust that much. And therefore, this will be in our adjusted EBIT affecting us. So these are the moving pieces that went into the guidance range. I can tell you about MSRP, so the so-called IAO credits, we have applied for them as the calculation method has been released. So we applied in June, and there's an assumption for that one in there as well in our raised guidance.

So the next question comes from Daniela Costa at Goldman Sachs.

I have one in the U.S. and one in Europe, but I'll start by the U.S. one. Can you give a little bit of background of sort of like a thinking about the new greenfield investment? So a couple of items, I guess, there, you said late '29. So when you finish this, where will your mix Mexico versus U.S. be? And are you changing the mix even before opening up the plant? And does it impact your CapEx guide, which I think went sort of on the CMD up until '28? So does that change? Or was it already included there? And then, I'll ask the European one.

Yes. So I think it's -- as I said earlier, with the new plant, it gives us a lot of flexibility -- I mean, we have already today, as you know, quite good flexibility in our network to move volumes between Mexico and the U.S. depending on different conditions. With this new plant, we will have even more flexibility to do that. And, of course, with this kind of greenfield investment, we have the opportunity to really leverage the latest technologies to use a lot of automation, which has been made available in the last couple of years, and we think we can get a plant with extremely good productivity, which will be very competitive. As for the CapEx, I hand over to Eva.

Yes. Thanks, Daniela. So on CapEx, it's a bit early to share the CapEx number for the plant because we are in the process of finalizing the site selection. What we can say is that it will be our largest plant in the United States. And as we said at our Capital Markets Day, we expect our CapEx to peak in '26 and '27, and they will still be at an elevated level in 2028. And this is still what we assume. And it's also worth noting that the new plant in the U.S., it is a very strategic investment into our production footprint and competitiveness in North America, and I can also say that it offers an attractive payback.

And then just in Europe, I think you -- Karin mentioned 6% of BEVs in Europe at the moment. There's still the 2030 CO2 reduction target. I was wondering if you could give a little bit of color on sort of how do you think BEV penetration has to evolve for you to get there. And what you're seeing in the competitive landscape there? There's a lot of things in the press regarding like Chinese competition and so on, sort of like just a little bit interested on your views on whether you're seeing effectively that competitive landscape starting to change at all.

So maybe starting with the second part of the question. We also see these announcements, but we don't yet see these trucks running with our customers. So -- and we don't see it also in registrations. As I mentioned in the speech, on zero-emission trucks, we actually have a 38% market share. And we just announced also one of the product gaps we've had, so to speak, has been the low liner, which is used for volume goods, for instance, for like automotive inbound, outbound logistics. We will launch that now at IAA, which I think will put us even in a stronger position in terms of competitiveness. So we are quite confident in our portfolio. But as you correctly point out, the overall market is still too small. We see that, as an industry, so not Daimler Truck specific, but as an industry, in order to reach the 43% CO2 target reduction, electrification rate in 2030 has to be around 35%. So for sure, it's a steep slope to go from the 6%, which was still much better than what we've seen before, but the 6% to 35%. And the main bottleneck still remains infrastructure, meaning charging stations. So even customers who want to transition to electric, in many cases, cannot do it because they can't charge the trucks on the road. So this is a challenge and working, of course, very close with the colleagues on this topic in ACEA and VDA. And also addressing it in Brussels. And what we're trying to achieve is to have a better connection between all the different legislations that will enable this transition, meaning the truck availability, but also the charging station commitments that are actually legislated and the countries have committed to build, but are not building at the rate that they promised and also the Eurovignette directive, which differentiates the road tax depending on if it's diesel or electric trucks, which is only implemented in 13 out of 28 member states, which makes then the TCO calculation for customers in the countries where it's not implemented a little bit difficult. So that's the current situation.

So next question comes from Harry Martin from Bernstein.

So a few on the U.S. So the first question I have is just on the Service and Parts business. Did you see that business grow in Q2? And then if you could give some commentary on the new truck sales, it looked like mix on those new trucks, was down year-over-year again in the second quarter. Is that the fact that large fleets are making up a bigger portion of the mix? And does that mix improve in the second half of the year? And then the second question, the set of questions I have, is there some follow-ups on the new plant in the U.S.? I understand the rationale. Will it increase total capacity in North America? Or would you downsize part of the Mexico production in association? Was this a prerequisite for the tariff deal or totally unrelated? And then, the final sort of thought or question is, does the U.S. market have room for the new capacity from you, from Volvo Mexico, from Tesla, all in the space of a few years? Or is there some concern about the total level of capacity?

Thanks, Harry, for your question. So on the Service and Parts business in the U.S., it was up mid-single digit year-over-year. So yes, we do see it growing. And when it comes to new truck sales, if I understood your question correctly in the mix, as I said when I answered the question from Klas, so when we look at the last 3 quarters, we actually have a very high order intake development, which is contributing to a significantly improved backlog. In the second quarter, it was a bit lower, but I also said that the large fleets and the rental and leasing fleets that, that was a bit lower in the second quarter, but that is already starting to really catch up in the third quarter now with the 45% Class 8 order share that we're seeing in July. On the plant, Karin can do that one.

Yes, I can do the plant. So I think, as I mentioned before, it's a strategic investment. It gives us more flexibility in the market, and we will leverage latest technologies to really ensure that we build a highly efficient plant. It will increase our capacity, yes. But I think this is a good thing because today, when we're at the top cycle, we do have a limitation in terms of supply. So this gives us opportunity for growth. We will continue to grow from our strong position today. And as I think you know, we're also trying to gain market share on the vocational side, where we still have a lot of potential for even further growth. So this makes us confident to take this investment now.

And if I can just follow up with -- I mean, was this part of the negotiations with the administration? Or was there something that was actually in the works for Daimler Truck before any of the changes in tariff policy?

Yes. So I would say -- I mean, if you look at the geopolitical development in the last couple of years, of course, this is something we've been talking about for a while within the company, how do we make sure that we set up our company to be robust and resilient for the future. So I would say this comes much more out of a strategic perspective than out of short-term gains related to the current legislative environment.

Next question comes from Lewis Merrick at BNP Paribas.

Lewis Merrick at BNP Paribas. Well, we've got clarity on the EPA27 and you're in the unique position that you've got a good balance of NOx credits to use. I mean, clearly, there's time for the regulations to change. But based on your current understanding today, how do you plan to use those NOx credits? How many units will they cover? And will these be able to be used to offset any nonconforming penalties? Peer recently suggest that, that wouldn't be the case, but I'm keen to hear your understanding.

Yes. Thanks, Harry -- thanks, Lewis, sorry. Still in the last question. Thanks, Lewis. EPA27, so what I can say is that credits are part of our technological solution to achieve EPA27 compliance. It gives us some flexibility in certification. So we won't discuss today details of the certification, but please keep in mind that these credits are awarded for our current engine generation that have lower emissions than what is required by law. What we can also say is that our EPA27 compliant engine, it's a technical solution that will be highly robust, as it will not require a 48-volt system. And we do not expect any nonconformance penalties having to be paid for our EPA27 compliant engine because we will be fully compliant with the engine that we launch beginning of next year.

Clear. And then just on the tariffs, can you give us a sense of what percentage of qualifying U.S. content you have actually agreed with the U.S. Department of Commerce?

We cannot share any details on that, Lewis.

Yes. Understood.

So next question comes from José Asumendi from JPMorgan.

A couple of questions, please. I think we can discuss order intake for very long. And I think we heard during the call that you're confident on order intake for Q3 momentum. Can you -- maybe just to speak in a different way, can we talk a bit about the production run rate ratios going into the third quarter? And do you see them also elevated versus Q2 when you say -- or improved maybe as you think about Europe and North America, which again, would sustain the view that the momentum remains strong order-wise in Europe and U.S. for you? And then second question, the topic of aftersales in Halberstadt, is this something that you think it will be solved by the fourth quarter or maybe as quick as Q3 in terms of the impact on earnings we saw in MB Trucks...

The production -- yes, thanks, Jose. On the production, so we are expecting production to be slightly up in the third quarter, so for Mercedes-Benz Trucks and for Trucks North America and even further in the fourth quarter. And what we also see based on orders development is that our production program is largely booked for both these segments.

With Halberstadt, I can say the situation is improving from where we were in Q2, but we will see some effects also in Q3. But we are hopeful that we will solve these topics in Q3 and run very efficient global parts logistics by Q4.

So next question comes from Shaqeal Kirunda from Morgan Stanley.

Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley. So book-to-bill fell in Q2, but freight rates have continued to grow. It seems like freight demand is coming online also. What's your sense of current market sentiment? Do you think that U.S. freight operators are more confident in the cycle and could move away from replacing trucks or actually expanding their fleets?

Thanks, Shaqeal, for your question. So yes, at the moment, we see only limited increases in freight volume, but a strong increase in freight rates, but we could see further potential there in the second half of the year and then also, in particular, into 2027 as this momentum accelerates.

And then, on the EPA situation, so the NCP mechanism lets manufacturer certify engines way above the 2027 NOx standard to 200 milligrams, it seems. And from the latest sort of developments, it seems like your peers are quite happy to take advantage of that. So by fully complying, it sounds like you'd be in the market with a more expensive engine. Is it that your incremental costs are just so much lower or you're expecting that the fuel efficiency from the new engine will pay off? Can you walk us through the strategy here?

Yes, sure. And maybe we ask whoever else is talking to just mute because we heard some background noise. So we will change over our production to the new engines. As Eva already stated, we have what we believe to be extremely robust engines, very good technical solution. We don't need the 48-volt system, which means the incremental cost increase is not that high. And we also will have a TCO advantage with these engines of around 3%. So we are definitely confident that these engines will perform with our customers, and that's why we will not run like parallel programs going into '27.

Next question comes from Alex Jones at Bank of America.