Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (8601) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you very much for waiting, investors. Thank you for taking the time to join us today for Daiwa Securities Group Inc.'s Fiscal Year 2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. It is time so the call will begin now. Today, we have with us Mr. Kotaro Yoshida, Executive Managing Director and CFO of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. I am Kana Nakamura, Head of the IR office, and will be acting as a facilitator for today's call. Thank you for joining us. First, Mr. Yoshida will explain the details of the fourth quarter financial results for fiscal year 2024. We will take questions from everyone after the explanation. In addition, the proceedings of today's conference call will be open to general investors via the Internet. Now we will begin the explanation.

My name is Kotaro Yoshida from Daiwa Securities Group Inc. Thank you very much for taking time out of your busy schedule today to attend our telephone conference. I will now explain the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 announced today, in line with the financial results presentation materials available on our website. Please turn to Page 4. First, I will explain the summary of the consolidated financial results. The percentage change in the figures is compared to the third quarter of FY 2024. Net operating revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024 was JPY 174.2 billion or plus 7.9%. Ordinary income was JPY 51 billion or minus 19.1%. The securities business secured a high level of profit, although profit declined partly due to less steel exits in Real Estate and Alternative Asset Management. In the Wealth Management Division, despite a softening stock market, the net increase in stock investment trust reached a record high of JPY 174.6 billion, thanks to successful proposal activity through total asset consulting. In wrap account service, the division secured JPY 195.7 billion in contract amount and a net increase of JPY 94.2 billion and was able to maintain high levels of asset-based revenues and flow revenues. The Asset Management Division recorded a decline in ordinary income. Securities Asset Management secured a high level of ordinary income. Alternative Asset management reported allowance and impairments due to the reevaluation of some investments. Global Markets saw increased equity revenues on the back of higher customer flows. Global Investment Banking posted record net operating revenue and ordinary income growth, driven by involvement in large primary deals and higher M&A revenues. Base income remained steady and amounted to JPY 37.3 billion. Profit attributable to owners of parent was JPY 29.9 billion or minus 35.8%. ROE was 7.3% on an annualized basis and 9.8% for the cumulative period of 2024. Year-end dividend is set at JPY 28. With the interim dividend of JPY 28, full year dividend will be a record high to JPY 56 trillion (sic) [ JPY 56 ]. Full year dividend payout ratio is 51.1%. Also as part of the capital policy, we have set a share repurchase program with the total number of shares up to 50 million and total value up to JPY 50 billion, which is a record high. Inclusive of share repurchases, total payout ratio is 83.6%. Please turn to Page 8. This slide shows the trends in consolidated ordinary income and base income. Base income was JPY 137.5 billion in cumulative FY 2024, up year-on-year and accounted for 61.2% of consolidated ordinary income. Please turn to Page 11. I will now explain the PL statement. Commissions received amounted to JPY 114.8 billion, up 4.6%. A breakdown of commissions received can be found on Page 26. Brokerage commissions amounted to JPY 23 billion, up 6.5%. Underwriting and secondary offering commissions were JPY 15.2 billion, up 14.9%. Distribution commissions were JPY 6.6 billion, down 0.6%. M&A-related commissions were JPY 16.5 billion, up 2.5%. Please turn to Page 12. I will now explain the state of SG&A. SG&A was JPY 121.3 billion, minus 2.6%. In trading-related expenses, fee commissions increased. In personnel expenses, performance-linked bonuses decreased. Please turn to Page 15. Next, I will explain the ordinary income of overseas operations. The ordinary income of the overseas operations totaled JPY 5.9 billion, down 25.4% Q-on-Q. In Europe, the primary business grew and profit increased. In Asia and Oceania, primary and M&A revenues expanded and ordinary income reached a record high. In Americas, FICC revenues declined resulting in a decrease in ordinary income. I will now explain the results by segment. Please turn to Page 16. First, I will explain the revenues and the income of the Wealth Management Division. Net operating revenues were JPY 66.4, up 0.6% and ordinary income was JPY 23.1 billion, up 10.1%. Equity revenues increased with large primary deals also contributing while secondary trading of Japanese equities remained at the high level. Distribution commission for investment trust remained at a high level. Sales of a wide range of stocks continued through consulting to help customers improve their portfolios. Agency fee for investment trust and wrap-related revenues remained high with asset-based revenues of JPY 27.9 billion accounting for 47.3% of the Wealth Management Division's net operating revenues. The Wealth Management Divisions ratio to fixed costs was 108% and its ratio to total cost was 71.2%. Please turn to Page 17. It is the progress on the Wealth Management business model. The cumulative asset base revenue for FY 2024 amounted to JPY 111.7 billion. In addition, net asset inflow amounted to JPY 1.573 trillion as a result of continued implementation of total asset consulting. Towards the group's basic management policy of maximize customer asset value, which has been adopted this year, we will continue to offer optimal portfolio proposals based on customers' total assets and build an earnings base that is less susceptible to market fluctuations. Please turn to Page 18. This page shows the status of sales and distribution amount by product in the Wealth Management Division in Japan and the topics for Q4. In wrap account service, the contract amount was JPY 195.7 billion with net inflow of JPY 94.2 billion. In stock investment trust, sales amounted to JPY 458 billion with a record net increase of JPY 174.6 billion. In line with progress in total asset consulting, sales of a wide range of products expanded, including the Fidelity Growth Opportunity Fund and the Daiwa Blackstone Private Credit Fund. The bottom left-hand corner of the slide shows a net change in sales of wrap in stock investment trust. Please continue to Page 19. Here is the situation of Daiwa Next Bank. Net interest income, et cetera, was JPY 9 billion, down 2.9%. And ordinary income was JPY 3.6 billion, up 10.9%. The increase in income was driven by higher interest margins resulting from higher yen interest rates. Please turn to Page 20. I will now explain about the Asset Management Division. First, let me explain about Securities Asset Management. Net operating revenue was JPY 14.9 billion, down 1.2%; and ordinary income was flat at JPY 7 billion. Daiwa Asset Management secured a net inflow of JPY 407 billion in publicly offered stock investment trust excluding ETF. In addition, entrusted assets from Japan Post Insurance exceeded JPY 2 trillion. Please turn to Page 21. Next is the Real Estate Asset Management. Net operating revenue was JPY 6.1 billion, down 15%; and ordinary income was JPY 7.1 billion, down 19.4%. Assets under management of Daiwa Estate Asset Management reached a record high. Equity method affiliate income from Samty Holdings contributed to this result, but gains from Daiwa Securities Reality declined. Please turn to Page 22. I will now explain the Alternative Asset Management. Net operating revenue was JPY 8.9 billion, and ordinary income was negative JPY 1.9 billion. At Daiwa PI Partners, revenue from private equity investments increased. At Daiwa Energy & Infrastructure, while some investments recorded income due to exits, some portfolio companies were revalued and provisions and impairments were recorded. Please continue to Page 23. Lastly, I'd like to explain the Global Markets and Investment Banking Division. In Global Markets, net operating revenue was JPY 36 billion, down 10.6%; and ordinary income was JPY 6.3 billion, down JPY 30.3 billion -- 30.3%. Equities saw an increase in revenues. Institutional investor flows expanded and remained strong due to rebalancing, and the retail investor trading was activated in conjunction with large primary deals. FICC posted lower revenues. In Japan, trading revenues declined from the previous quarter as investors took a wait-and-see stance amid rising interest rates. Overseas revenues declined quarter-over-quarter amid high volatility in the U.S. interest rates. Please turn to Page 24. I'd like to explain Global Investment Banking. Net operating revenue was JPY 25.8 billion, up 1.6%; and ordinary income was JPY 6.9 billion, up 25.5%. Equity underwriting revenue increased significantly due to involvement in large-scale deals. In M&A, revenues increased by accurately capturing increased corporate actions. This completes an explanation of the financial results for the third -- fourth quarter of FY 2024. FY 2024 was the first year of the Medium-Term Management Plan when we were able to produce solid results in line with strategies and KPIs set in the plan. Ordinary income for the full year topped JPY 200 billion for the first time after 2005. In particular, base profit grew by more than 20% year-on-year, which shows the steady progress we are making in shifting to a business model that is less susceptible to market conditions. This is attributable, in our opinion, to the result of our efforts to provide the best, more appropriate and high-quality solutions that meet the needs and circumstances of our customers in line with the basic management policy of maximizing the value of our customers' assets. In the Wealth Management Division, we started to try to understand the customer and strengthened consulting activities furthermore towards customer's total assets. Through repeated proposals for portfolio improvement using the analysis and proposal tools, the combined net increase in mutual funds and fund wrap exceeded JPY 260 billion in the fourth quarter, leading to an increase in asset inflow and asset-based revenues. The new and the growing interest in asset building under inflation have led to continued asset inflows in the Securities Asset Management Business. In addition, the Real Estate Asset Management and Alternative Asset Management businesses were able to secure profit growth for the full year, driven by capital recycling. In Global Investment Banking, equity revenues increased significantly, mainly from large primary deals and the sales of strategically held equity deals and the M&A revenues reached a record high. We also believe that this was a quarter that reaffirmed that Global Investment Banking's business can lead to significant results through collaboration with Global Markets, Wealth Management and overseas. Now in April, the market is facing an uncertain outlook triggered by the Trump administration's strengthening of reciprocal tariffs. As was the case when stock prices plummeted last August, we are actively providing information to our clients to prevent them from becoming anxious. Although the market has calmed down a bit, we will continue to provide information carefully to our clients as we expect the market to continue to move up and down. Net increase in sales of fund wrap and investment trust is continuing at the moment, and we recognize that our clients' medium- to long-term asset building needs are high even in this market environment. And there is no change to the trend of shifting from savings to investments. Although there are some customers who are taking a wait-and-see stance, there were some short-term buying on downside activity in the market in early April. The end of deflation, the shift to a world with interest rates, the trend from savings to investments and increased corporate actions by domestic companies to improve capital efficiency are structural changes in the Japanese economy, which will not change in the medium to long term. Using the tailwind in the capital market, we will further strengthen our group's efforts to maximize the value of our clients' assets. We appreciate your continued support. This completes my explanation.

Now we'd like to open the line for questions. For today's conference, we have the simultaneous translation. English-speaking investors can participate. [Operator Instructions] For the Q&A session today, we are going to take questions in Japanese first, followed by questions in English. [Operator Instructions] So I would like to introduce the first question, SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san.

This is Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. So first is the Global Markets, so in terms of the -- we're talking on Page 22 here. So Q3, the investment that is under consolidation, you have booked the allowance. So for Q4, under equity method affiliates, it was deficient by JPY 5 billion. So at the equity method of the investments, you have seen a large amount of loss. And you've mentioned about allowance. So I believe you have provision allowance for those investment under consolidation. So you had some exits partially as well. So in terms of the Energy investment portfolio, what sort of changes have occurred? So at the time of the commencement of the investment and vis-a-vis the initial assumption, what is the disparity now? So as we try to forecast the future, the profit and revenues, what sort of indices should we keep an eye on? If you could give us more color. The second question relates to Global Markets, by the monthly trend of the Global Markets. So this time around, equity has been quite favorable. Fixed income, so [ JGB ] was tough. I believe that was the nature of your explanation. So for the months of January, February, March and onwards through April, how the revenue is trending? If you can give us the monthly trend. So that would be my second question.

Mr. Muraki, thank you for the question. So related to your first question about the Alternative Asset Management. So for the Alternative Asset Management, the investments, so we have the Daiwa Capital and also PI partners, which conducts private equity and also Daiwa Energy Infrastructure. These are the 3 companies constituting the Asset Management. So private equities and the monetary claims because of the real estate energy infrastructure and so forth, so we are conducting diversified investment towards different avenues. So in terms of the investments, we do conduct a fairly strict due diligence. And through the value enhancement, we are trying to maximize investment. And of course, in some cases, we may have some other income as well. Also after the exits, we are attempting to capture the capital gains. But depending on the investments, because of the business environment change or the deterioration of the environment, we may have to provision the allowance or we may have to book loss due to the divestiture. So all in all, if you look at the portfolio, we intend to secure the return. So on a full year basis for 2024 and the Alternative division as a whole, JPY 20.5 billion of ordinary income is expected to be booked. So we do have a certain level of evaluation due to the investment. And also within the alternative investment within the Daiwa Energy Infrastructure, about the renewable energy and the operating climate, so more specifically, under the U.S. -- the Trump administration, the policy measures as well as the interest rate and the inflation trends and Europe and the U.S., because of that, we conducted reevaluation of some of the investments. So in terms of the general direction of the business, Infrastructure & Energy, so as far as infrastructure investment is concerned, no change in our basic policy. Also, it has high affinity with renewable energy. So especially for the power infrastructure, inclusive of the power distribution and also for digital infrastructure, we are focusing on data centers. In terms of the renewable energy, data Center business is expected to grow so with -- the power demand is expected to grow. This is the overall trend we are expecting. So the solar, which is already under operation, will be the primary part. So in terms of the region, the U.S., Europe and Japan will be the major geography. So the battery, the market is ramping up quite quickly. So in order to have the first mover's benefit, we are making investment. Also for the Daiwa Energy, the infrastructure about the renewable energy in terms of asset class and area, we are diversifying those as we structure the portfolio. So with a specific trend, nothing would be overly linked with the -- given the current structure of the portfolio. So exit the income and so we have some domestic private equity as well as the Daiwa Energy, and of course, there were some impairment as well. So because of multiple factors, this is the figure that we have booked. So that relates to the first part of the question. Second part about the Global Markets. So for Q4, the monthly trend. In the domestic fund in the month of January, the revenue was tough. In February, March, we had seen a recovery. Also for Americas, so the February revenue-wise was challenging, but the month of January and March was as normal business -- business as usual. So that is the trend -- the monthly trend. I hope I answered your question.

So the Global Markets, the state of April, I don't think you have commented. Would you be able to do that for the month of April?

So for the month of April, for FICC, domestic volatility continues to be high. So all in all, it has been a challenge. So the institutional investors they are taking a rather mutual, if not a cautious, stance within the recent weeks. So some of the replacement and also the -- there are some trends to actually capture the spread for the asset stocks. So we would like to capture accurately the needs of the customers. Americas, there was some confusion in the initial part. So it's not as if it's fully in the positive, the aspect. But of course, we have the NPS rebalance and there were some active activities that is going on. So did I hope I answered your question.

Mr. Muraki, thank you so much for your questions. Next questions are from JPMorgan Securities, Sato-san.

Sato from JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. First, the buyback, JPY 50 billion that you announced today, what is the back story of that? In addition, although you have not made a public release yet, but capital adequacy ratio regulation, finalization basis of Basel III reflecting the current exchange rates, 11% or 14%, respectively, the level of available capital exceeding those levels. Do you think our levels are going to exceed those levels? Could you please comment on that? Second question. After the first year of the Mid-Term Plan, how do you assess the progress that you made? Especially in terms of the ordinary income JPY 240 billion; base profit, JPY 150 billion, those targets for the base profit target. For the fourth quarter alone, I think you have just done a quarter, exactly 1 quarter, over JPY 150 billion, which means probably you are ahead of the pace of the progress in the Mid-Term Plan. But other than the base profit, how do you assess the progress that you are making towards the targets that you set in the Medium-Term Management Plan?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for your questions. To your first question, the shareholders' return policy that we announced today, our stance and the rationale behind it and also our evaluation on the available capital. About the capital policy -- shareholder dividend policy, I'd like to recap what we have just announced in terms of the basic return policy. 50% or higher dividend payout per quarter. And also in the Mid-Term Plan period, JPY 44 per share is the floor. In addition -- for the additional capital returns, shareholders' returns, looking at the financial soundness and future growth opportunities, share price and the business environment, we are going to consider all of that and make a comprehensive decision in terms of the additional return. That is our basic policy. And at the moment, our policy is in terms of the environment for the group, there are uncertainties at the moment, but there is a tailwind that is so strong at the moment. So towards the maximization of the corporate value in the medium to long term, I would like to actively invest for growth. We'd like to give you potential investments for the future growth at this time. Specifically speaking, retail financial assets are being shifted from savings to investments, which has permeated the society at the moment. That is an opportunity. And for SME or Japanese companies, corporate governance is being strengthened and they are trying to sell strategically held equity stocks, and corporate finance activities are quite active. And also now we have positive interest rates in Japan, which are activating corporate actions in Japan. And also Japanese government is building the investment attitude or investment atmosphere for the whole country. So I would like to achieve organic growth by studying growth opportunities. We have a strong pipeline for growth investments at the moment, so we are reviewing many opportunities. And as you pointed out, in the third year of the Mid-Term Plan, JPY 240 billion ordinary income by 2024 and JPY 350 billion or more ordinary income by 2030. To achieve those targets, we'd like to prioritize are on those growth investments for the future at this time. At the same time, in April onwards, because of Mr. Trump's administration by many factors such as reciprocal tariffs, there's a high volatility in the market and our share price has been volatile as well. So concerning those circumstances, I would like to review the income structure and the financial fundamentals of the group and also considering the level of the share price and the pipeline for the investments for the future size of the investment and also considering the market changes that are happening at the moment and also capital level, we made a decision to return to shareholders, as we announced today. And the amount of the shareholder return that we announced today is going to be the record high, JPY 50 billion, the buyback in terms of. And I would like to continue to work on investing for growth to enhance the corporate value, and we'd like to strike a good balance and return well to shareholders. For your second question, finalization of Basel III and impact of that as of the end of March, although we are still in the process of final correlation, but the impact is expected to be 3% to 4% lower as we have briefed the market before, but it's going to be a little bit smaller impact under the final, final finalization, but that is our assessment at the moment. And after the buyback that we have announced today, the level of capital is enough in our opinion. So we have the strong pipeline for future growth investments. So we have the strong capital, which enables us to invest for growth in the future. For the other question, which is our assessment on the progress that we are making. So far in the first year, first, maximizing the customers' asset value, that is our base stance towards that. All in all, I think we did well. Especially base profit JPY 150 billion target in the third year, that is our target. But as you pointed out, I think we are a bit ahead in terms of the pace towards that plan because in the Wealth Management Division investment consulting activities, we've been making efforts to promote and continue on consulting activities in the wealth asset -- Wealth Management division. That is leading to the net increase of sales of fund wrap and other products. And the increase in sales of those products is the indication of the trust that we are garnering from our customer and that's why base profit is growing. And NISA and Asset Management mention, the government policy, the tailwinds for the increase in the asset inflow and in the Daiwa Asset Management, there's positive inflow of assets. And we are ranked at the top of the ranking table of the amount of inflow of assets from customers, which is also contributing to the increase in the base profit. And for other divisions as well, because of more active dynamics of the market, customers' behaviors are changing based upon the world with interest rates and what's happening in the world. So I think we've been able to cope with the changes. Especially in the Investment Banking Division in the first half, equity, IPO and PO, we did a little bit lower than expected but we've been able to get involved in those deals so we were able to achieve the minimum achievement -- minimum result in the first half. And our outlook for the future, base profit in the fourth quarter multiplied by 4, then JPY 40 billion, JPY 150 billion. I think we can get to JPY 150 billion in the third year. And Global Investment Banking, Global Markets, Alternative Asset Management, as we get contribution from those divisions, we'd like to aim at achieving JPY 240 billion. But ordinary income of JPY 240 billion is just a milestone. We'd like to solidify the base of the group to achieve the milestone of JPY 240 billion. So just like in the first year, each division is going to do what it needs to do to achieve those targets. At the moment, there are uncertainties in the market. But we see needs from customers in the Wealth Management towards consultation, we are having more meetings. There's no decline in those face-to-face contact with customers in April even. And we are talking to customers, our customers asking us to talk to them. So I would like to just continue our efforts. I hope I answered your question.

Thank you very much, Mr. Sato. We'd like to move on to the next question. BofA Securities, Tsujino-san, please.

This relates to alternative investment. I think you had a fairly abstract explanation. So I'm looking at Page 22. So Daiwa Energy Infrastructure, so we have there the balance trend. And also we look at Q3 and Q4, there were some exits, and there was some impairment as well. So meanwhile, the balance has been on the decline. So you have the allowance and impairment, both of them together. So probably, you have several billions of allowance and several billions of impairment and over JPY 10 billion of gains could have been maybe close to JPY 20 billion. So we have JPY 170 billion. I think it's down to JPY 140 billion. So you have these positive ups and down factors. So should we just look at the positive factors only? So on a quarterly basis, to have the significant impairment, I think there were some case in the past as well. Perhaps we should look at this as more of a high risk. So if you can give us more color what is the investments? What was different? Is it just inflation or is it more of an individual -- the power generating facilities? So for instance, power transmission, there were some bottlenecks perhaps? So that wasn't revisited before, but this time around, you did. So if you can give us more color, the concrete explanation is required. Otherwise, we cannot get the full picture. And also going forward, it's about JPY 140 billion, which is remaining right now. So you mentioned there's been increase in the data centers. But what exactly is the breakdown of this? I think it's necessary that you give us more explanation. So I hope that you can give us some explanation. So that is the first question. And there's another major question and a small one as well. So one to the [ monetary ], the assets, there's been a rise. So perhaps in the Energy Infrastructure, there was some front-loading of the that might have been the situation, but that may need to be changed. So that is why you have this classic -- the bad claims and that is why you shifted to this. So do you have this sense of urgency? So perhaps that is difficult to do on overseas front, but we may need to do that in the domestic front. So provided that's the policy, we would like to hear more about it. Also, this is a really detailed question. So the top left here. So you mentioned those are the provision and impairment losses. So both of them. So where it stands out is the minor factor, the revenues due to exit from investment projects and impairment losses recorded due to reevaluations of some investees. So you have negative factor for the equity method. Beyond that, there are multiple cases of provisions and impairment losses. That might have been the case or perhaps those, the investees, that belongs to a different line item of accounting. If there are any, we would like to hear about that as well.

Tsujino-san, thank you very much for the question. So for the Alternative Asset Management, the gain from the exits and the provision and the impairment losses and for the individual investees, we would like to refrain from responding because of the nature of the deals. Quite often we cannot disclose this information. So we have a different, the investment styles. So in terms of the return, some may be booked under net operating revenues. And depending on the accounting standard, we may actually receive as distribution or we may have gains as part under the equity method. So different cases. So that may be booked as the nonoperating, the other income. And as we have already mentioned for Q3, so of course, there are ups and downs. But in terms of the -- perhaps you should look at the ordinary income, that might be the proper way. So there was a larger impact from the impairment losses, more so than the gains from exit. So that is why we are seeing deficit for Q4. So So for Alternative Asset Management. So we have private equity and also monetary claims and real estate, energy infrastructure. So we are providing -- conducting a selective investment and connecting value enhancement. Especially for Daiwa Energy Infrastructure, capital recycling is underway. So the balance and with the exit, we may have some income or we may incur some loss as well. So if you were to look at it on a quarterly basis, we are bound to see ups and downs as we have seen in the past. So we'd like to make sure that we would like to manage the portfolio. So if you look at on a full year basis, we shall see more of the profit. We'd like to have that as a controlled management. We like to look at the interest rate situation in various countries, and also because of the energy policies, the outlook of the investment may change. So in some cases, we have no choice but to make some provision or revisit some of the investments. We'd like to have a full fledged risk management to progress with this business. Also for the monetary claims for Alternative, so we incurred some loss and impairment losses. So not much of a relationship here. There's no link that because of that we've increased the monetary claims. That is not the case. So where it's worthy of investment, it has reached a certain value. So this is Daiwa PI Partners. So we have increased the balance because of the -- for the Daiwa PI Partners.

And the last question, please.

So we do have some provision and permit losses. So that's why we have outlined both of them.

So as an accounting item then, we have the minus from the equity-related investment. But aside from other accounting items, where else will we see the posting of the numbers in terms of other line items.

So in terms of the gains and loss under the equity method, also in some cases we had some provision for the net operating revenues. So that is also inclusive as an item. So for -- it is not part of the securities, the gains and loss system, it's a different line item.

So in terms of the operating securities?

Yes, it is a provision related to that.

So it is within that line item then, in terms of the gains?

So yes, partially, it is inclusive in there.

So it's in other accounting items, too?

So both the equity method and also the operating investment.

Maybe I didn't pose the question properly. So instead of investing in Daiwa Energy Infrastructure -- so in terms of the Daiwa Energy infrastructure, the balance has come down to this level, so next fiscal term then, so that is for the year ending March 2026. So March 2025, you had quite sizable gains from divestiture. So would that be a possibility for the following year as well, the year ending March 2026?

So we still have the balance, investment balance. So we will continue to engage in exit activities. But how much we may have, we don't have the exact number or we cannot disclose at this moment.

Ms. Tsujino, thank you so much for your questions. Next questions are from Niwa-san from Citi.

Niwa From Citi Group. Investment Banking Division and Aozora Bank, so I have questions around those. For the Investment Banking Division, would you please update us on the pipeline in more detail? For example, by region, by product, M&A capital market, by the product type and also the size of the potential companies, what is the pipeline? And what are the types of topics and the discussion that you're having? And looking at earnings of the American and European banks, there are some differences. So what is your take on the pipeline in Investment Banking? And the second, Aozora Bank. You and Aozora Bank, what is the progress of the collaboration? And what are the potential initiatives in collaboration? What is the pipeline, the progress of the collaborative business? And their share price is also being adjusted, so how do you assess the potential impairment risk on the share price of Aozora Bank?

Niwa-san, thank you so much for your questions. To your first question, Global Investment Banking, the pipeline. PO, starting with the public offering market, the number of cases and pipeline is flat. In terms of the amount basis year-on-year, flat as well. In the last fiscal year, the PO market was about JPY 4 trillion, which was quite active. At the moment, there are more uncertainties. So corporate actions are now in the wait-and-see mode for some customers. However, there's this transaction of sale of strategically held equity stocks and refinancing of the shareholder base, there are fundamental needs to those actions. So I would like to communicate with customers and capture those opportunities. And the IPO market, the number of cases and also the amount compared to the last fiscal year, both are down. Both are lower year-on-year. GSE's growth market criteria for IPO is being discussed for the potential review. So IPO, in terms of the number of cases, may decrease gradually. In the PO market, it depends on the number of large deals. But Tokyo Metro and JX Metal, we had those deals in the last fiscal year, but we expect the volume to grow slightly lower. And the debt, DCM, the pipeline is almost flat year-on-year. In terms of the value, it's almost flat year-on-year. Temporary, there are some recession of the investors' appetite. Therefore, there may be some lower appetite. And for M&As, in Japan, the size of the M&A market is certainly up. In terms of the number of deals and in terms of the value amount, it's slightly down year-on-year. But for the domestic M&A market, because of the circumstance I mentioned, that there are still strong inquiries or needs. So we'd like to deploy our resources to focus on this area. For the European and Americas, due to the tariff issue, economical issue, interest rate issues, I think the performance is going to be impacted, but the pipeline is about the same year-on-year both in Europe and also the Americas. That's what we have heard from the team. And to your second question, collaboration with Aozora Bank. In term of the impairment risk, are we valued based upon the equity in net assets? So even though share price goes down, it does not -- we don't have to book the impairment loss based upon the share price. And for the collaboration, in May we are going to have an earnings analyst meeting. We are going to provide more details. But we are quite active in communicating with them to collaborate with them because using the loan lending functions of Aozora Bank, we are making the progress in corporate finance, M&A, MBO finance. There are specific results from the collaboration with Aozora Bank. I hope I answered your questions.

Thank you very much, Niwa-san. The next question comes from Sakasi-san, Nomura Securities.

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. Just one question I'd like to pose. So for the year ending March 2026, so as much as you can, if you can give us more color of the guidance. So just by listening to your explanation, so the market itself is volatile but I think the message is it's been quite steady as far as your business is concerned. So for the March 2025, we have more than JPY 220 billion of ordinary income. But for this fiscal term, the year ending March 2026, would you be able to have over JPY 200 billion in terms of ordinary income? Could we assume that it's a possibility? Please give us more color as far as you can.

Thank you very much, Sasaki-san, for that question. So for the year ending March 2026, it's only just short of 1 month since this fiscal term just started so we don't really disclose any of the full year guidance. So we don't -- we cannot give you more details about this particular year. But depending on the division, there's a different color. So Global Markets, there are some challenges. But Wealth Management Division, the net increase has been on the rise. So maybe the growth is not as much as before. But -- so under an average month of last year, we're trending pretty much the same way in the recent months. So despite all these different ups and downs, we will be focusing on the stock or the asset consulting. And as long as we see this, the balance accumulate, and also in terms of base income itself, if we can achieve JPY 150 billion purely by base income then, of course, GM, GIB, Alternative, if we can JPY 50 billion, then we could be looking at JPY 200 billion. But of course, there is some uncertainty as to whether we can achieve those numbers or not. And also, we have the mark-to-market impact we incur as well. So at least -- so this is year 2. So to reach towards JPY 240 billion, we hope that this is a hop step, let's just say, in a milestone to reach that number for 2030. So JPY 220 billion plus ordinary income was booked for FY 2024. So at the acquisition of Aozora Bank, it's a goodwill. So in reality, this is about JPY 200 billion if you exclude that factor. So in year 3, we'd like to reach JPY 240 billion or higher and steadily implement the initiatives.

So the deposit and a custody rather and the stock related, the balance, if it's in minus, so can we expect to have the similar level as Q3. Also the fact that the earnings level has come down, if that is the case, for March 2026, can we expect to have similar level of share buyback similar to JPY 50 billion?

Thank you very much for that additional question. So in terms of asset under custody, so we may have the bonds in equity. So there are some asset-based revenues. But we basically look at the investment trust, fund wraps and also the bank deposits that constitute the asset-based balance. In fact, Q4, because the mark-to-market basis, Daiwa Securities Wealth Management division, Investment Trust and fund wrap, in comparison to December of last year, the mark-to-market price has come down. So we have been impacted. And despite this impact, in terms of the asset base, the revenue has been on the rise so in terms of the equity investment and also fund wraps and so forth. So Q3 and Q4, the revenues has been on the decline, this is because of the foreign currency-based deposit. So about JPY 680 billion on a yen-denominated basis so because the interest rate has come down for the foreign currency deposit. So at Daiwa Securities, what we receive from Daiwa Next Bank, the fee has been on the decline. That is the biggest factor. So we just -- as we have seen with Q4, for this fiscal term, we are -- see some ups and downs in terms of the mark-to-market. But as we see the increase -- in the net increase, we shall continue to see accumulation of the asset-based revenues. Also in terms of the shareholders' return, we have already answered some of the questions beforehand. So we'd like to take a comprehensive approach to decide on the shareholders' return. That is all.

Mr. Sasaki, thank you so much for your questions. It is time to finish. So we're going to take the last question. Otsuka-san from SBI Securities.

Otsuka from SBI. Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

So I'm going to ask a question one by one. Page 18 at the top, Wealth Management Division, looking at the numbers, investment trust sales. In the fourth quarter, net increase JPY 274.6 billion -- JPY 174.6 billion, which sounds quite strong and there are reasons mentioned at the top. But primary and secondary, what is the breakdown by the two? And probably, it's mostly contributed by the primary. So what is the breakdown between the two? The intention of my question is because looking at the other brokerage houses in the fourth quarter, the sales and also secondary sales and commissions in the fourth quarter for investment trust sales, I think there was a headwind for many of the security brokerage houses and your case is a bit different. So that's why I'd like to know the breakdown. So that's my first question.

Thank you. Investment sales breakdown between the secondary and primary, you mean the first launch of the investment trust, you mean? Is that the breakdown?

Yes, yes.

I'm sorry, I don't have the details at the moment, but the majority is the secondary sales. Sales in the secondary market. So this is about not really the sales of investment trust products, but this is coming from the investment consulting for asset management and the financial planning using tools to understand customers' situation. The portfolio improvement proposals are now easier for us to do, and our customers can easily visualize their financial status. So in the medium to long term, we are working to improve the whole portfolio of the customers' assets without being influenced by the short-term market volatility. And as a result, our sales of the credit fund or private assets were very well. Especially, private alternative asset products in Europe and in the United States, there are certain allocation always from high net worth individuals. In Japan, those products did not really exist before. So high net worth, ultra-high net worth individuals, we saw a strong appetite towards those products. And JPY 174.6 billion, which is the increase, which was a record high. But in terms of sales, I'm sorry, I don't really follow other company's performance. But if you look at the right-hand side graph, for our case, the sales amount has declined for stock investment trust, but the net increase increased, which means our activities -- consulting activities are working effectively. And there's inflow of assets or capital from other banks or other security companies into us -- into our group. In addition, fund wrap, we have the highest balance of the fund wrap assets in Japan and we don't have varieties of private assets that they can choose. Even with high net worth individuals, there's some allocation to private assets, private equity. By having those allocations, they can improve the return of their portfolio and they are really feeding the improvement of the return from the portfolio firsthand. And although there are some products where the liquidity is not that great, but they understand those characteristics. And with understanding those characteristics, they are choosing to have those allocations. Primary, so at the start of the launch of the investment trust, even though there was no new launch, but on the Q-on-Q increase -- net increase of JPY 70 billion, is that what you mean?

So as you mentioned, regardless of the market situation every quarter, JPY 180 million, JPY 170 million, net increase is the size of the net increase that you can do per quarter?

Well, I said the majority is secondary. In the fourth quarter, from January to March, the new set of funds, we have 2 of them actually, Blackstone Infrastructure Fund and Indian equity fund. So those are the newly set up investment trust funds. And in the initial year, we did a little bit less than JPY 20 billion. So as you mentioned correctly, at the time of the fund launch, in our case, we don't really ramp up the solicitation activities right from the start. So they look at the track record and they look at the past history. So if the product is strong and good or the product is good, leading to the improvement of the total portfolio return, then we recommend those products rather than recommending those newly set up products right from the beginning.

Okay. My second question is on Page 29, sorry to ask you again, but inflow and outflow. In this fourth quarter, JPY 170.6 billion or so inflow, which is quite high level. So is that because of the inflow being converted to buying investment trust?

Yes, you're right. In addition, in the fourth quarter, we have primary deals, JX Metal and other large deals, primary deals. And the deposit then purchase those primary deals. And we feel that when we analyze the total asset portfolio of the customers and then we make recommendations to customers, as a result, we get larger-sized deals and we make recommendations by understanding customer circumstance. That's why customers make decisions very quickly because our primary deals are quite speedy. They have to make a decision very quickly because there's the deadline. So this is a rather difficult sales activity, but we do understand customer circumstance and then make recommendations of certain products. So that's why we were able to close quite a large amount. And also contribution to the net inflow was made mostly by corporate businesses like private businesses; or public entities, which are the organizations that they need to invest in this inflationary environment and cost inflation. So they are deploying money to invest in fixed income and other products. That's why inflow is increasing. This includes inflow into Daiwa Next Bank as well.

Sorry to confirm the details, but Page 29, you're talking about left-hand side. So on the right-hand side, that's the retail customer, right? And you talked about left-hand side, right? You talked about businesses. Is it mostly business customers?

I'm sorry. On the left-hand side, yes, businesses. On the right-hand side, this includes retail customers only. And these are our primary deal inflow as well buying fixed income, investment trusts, different products. And also we said primary investment trust, Blackstone Infrastructure Fund and Ambit income fund, our Indian equity fund. The level is about JPY 25 billion, respectively, just to add the size of those funds.

Otsuka-san, thank you so much for your questions. This completes the Q&A session.

Yoshida speaking, again. Thank you so much for staying till the end of this meeting. Thank you. We would appreciate your support to Daiwa Securities Group Inc. Thank you so much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]