Dana Incorporated (DAN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Inc. Backlog Growth and Market Outlook Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers' remarks and Q&A session will be recorded for replay purposes. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

Good morning, and welcome to Dana's January Market Backlog Update Call. Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from what we've discussed today. For more details about the factors which may affect future results, please refer to our safe harbor statement filed in our public filings and our reports to the SEC. I encourage you to visit our investor website, where you'll find this morning's presentation and press release. As stated, today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Incorporated. They may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our written consent. This morning with me is Bruce McDonald, Dana's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Timothy Kraus, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us this morning to provide insights on our key markets, our Byron Foster, President of Dana's Light Vehicle Systems Group; and Brian Pour, President of our Commercial Vehicle Systems Group. As we get started, we will cover our prepared remarks this morning. Then we will take questions from our coverage analysts on the phone. Note that the results we discussed this morning are preliminary, and we will be hosting our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call in February as usual. Bruce, I'll now turn the call over to you.

Well, thanks, Craig, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us here to talk about another update on Dana. Just turning to my first slide here. I thought it would -- it's important to sort of focus on what we -- when we had a call like this last year, a year ago. And I thought it was important to sort of remind people what we committed to deliver in 2025 and how we've subsequently done. So last year, we announced we were going to sell our off-highway business and focus on our core markets, the on-highway, both commercial vehicle and light vehicle. We committed to getting that done. We got it done. It took a little bit longer than we thought with the tariff turmoil, but I'm pleased to get that one in our rearview mirror. We also talked about taking a more measured approach to EV market. I think we got in front of the curve here. We do expect to take a small noncash charge in the fourth quarter as we write down some of our assets. But I can tell you, as a result of the team's terrific work in terms of customer recoveries and negotiations, price increases, the damage for Dana in terms of the radically lower EV market is very manageable. And then our cost reduction target, a year ago, on this call, we upped our target from $200 million to $300 million. We talked about merging our Power Technologies segment into our CV and LV segments, and that's behind us. In terms of achievements, a few noteworthy ones that are in the press release, and we'll touch on later in the discussion today. But in terms of our cost reduction target, as a result of the achievements in Q4 and as we put together our plans for 2025 -- 2026, I'm sorry, we expect our target to be about $15 million higher than we previously communicated at $325 million. We feel really good about that. I would tell you that if you look at where that cost is coming out, it's a combination of R&D, SG&A as well as cost of goods sold. In terms of margins, we finished the year here. Tim will get into the details in his presentation, but we finished the year at 8%. This is looking at new Dana on a continuing operations basis. So 8%, 8.1%. We think the final number is going to come in that. And then in terms of 2026, we've always talked about a target of being 10% to 10.5%, and we're introducing here a range of 10% to 11%. So at the midpoint, we're at the high end of our range. We had a really good Q4. Our numbers came in very strong. Our EBITDA about 10% better than consensus estimates. And if you look at our free cash flow, it's the highest the company has delivered since 2013. In terms of the balance sheet, the sale of the Off-Highway business closed on January 1. And again, Tim will go through kind of the pro forma cap structure, but we are sitting here well positioned with the balance sheet, less than 1x turn and that's a commitment that we're going to -- that new Dana is going to have going forward. We want to be the best-in-class, best in sector balance sheet, and we continue to believe that next year, our free cash flow will be in the 4% of sales. And then lastly, just in terms of our backlog, despite, I would say, the deterioration that we saw in the EV side of our business, our 3-year backlog at $750 million is up versus the backlog that we reported a year ago. And so anyway, the team, I think, has done a terrific job this year. I really thank everybody in the Dana organization for the support that they've provided to me and their contributions in terms of making these numbers a reality. And obviously, it's not gone unnoticed that the market has certainly rewarded us. If you just look at our stock price performance since where we sat in January of last year, we've more than doubled. Just in terms of business overview, I touched on the sale of Off-Highway, but just reminding folks, the price $2.7 billion, net of transaction costs and debt that the buyer assumed we got $2.4 billion. In terms of our returning capital to our shareholders, we bought back in 2025, about 112 -- sorry, 34 million shares or 23% of our shares outstanding. So at the end of the year, we had just over 112 million shares outstanding. Total capital return to shareholders, inclusive of our dividend, just over $700 million. And in 2026, we expect our share repurchase to be in the $200 million to $300 million range, probably front-end loaded with more than half of that in Q1. In terms of our balance sheet, I touched on that earlier, but $2 billion of the debt was paid back as a result of proceeds coming in here in January. Our cost reduction target that flowed through in 2025 was $260 million, which is up from the $235 million we guided to last quarter. And if you just look at the annualization and how much we expect to improve year-over-year as a result of the cost reduction program, it's an additional $65 million next year. We've -- I think we flagged for some time, we were in negotiations to buy out our TM4 joint venture from Hydro-Quebec. That was just completed actually yesterday for just under $200 million. And I guess just the final comment I would say on our backlog is we have very robust quoting activity. And I would say within the 3-year window. So I do anticipate we will see further growth in our backlog here as we go through the early part of 2026. So anyway, I'd say a great start, a finish to 2025, and the team is executing, performing well, and we have strong momentum going into 2026. And with that, Tim, I'll turn it over to you.

Thanks, Bruce. So if you just turn to Page 6, I'll just give you a quick overview of new Dana's business. So about $7.5 billion in sales split 70-30 between our light vehicle segment and in commercial vehicle. From a regional perspective, the loss of the off-highway business or the post off-highway, we're predominantly focused from a North American perspective, about 60% of the business there with 20% being in Europe and the balance being in Asia and South America. If you look in the lower right-hand corner from a customer perspective, while we have strong focus in both Ford and Stellantis, we continue to have a very diverse customer base with strong showings with Toyota, Volkswagen, PACCAR and others. If you look down in the lower left-hand corner, a new view. So we're giving -- what we're calling the channel business for the company. So this would be our light vehicle OE, our commercial vehicle OE and our aftermarket business. So this is a focus for new Dana with our aftermarket business representing about 12% of the overall company or about $900 million. If we go to the next page, as Bruce mentioned, strong backlog with $200 million of growth coming in 2026 rising to $750 million by 2028. The backlog for 2026 is offsetting a slightly down market for us. And so we see our total volume and mix being about a down $75 million for the year. But that new backlog comes with better margins than the programs that are rolling off. If you move to Page 8. So we've gone back to present market as we've done in the past. And so we've broken this down between full-frame truck on the light vehicle side, which is really the driver on our light vehicle business. And then on the commercial vehicle split between medium and heavy-duty and then by region. So Overall, full-frame truck and the CV market will be flat for Dana, if you look all the way over on the far right of the page. And in that, we see heavy-duty -- the heavy-duty market being down in North America with an uptick from medium duty. And again, we do see continued share gains in our CV business that will offset some of the market share -- or excuse me, the market volume down that we see. Please keep in mind, just as I mentioned before, that our Light Vehicle segment includes the OEM thermal and sealing business that used to be part of Power Technologies. And that business is a bit more exposed to both small SUVs and passenger cars. So while full-frame truck in North America is shown as flat, we do have other exposure within that segment to non-full-frame truck programs. Now if you turn to Page 9, I'll turn it over to Byron, and he'll take you through some of the particulars for the Light Vehicle segment.

Okay. Thanks, Tim, and good morning, everybody. So before I get into the backlog, I thought I'd level set the group on Dana's Light Vehicle Systems business. So if you look at Page 9, you can see about $5.2 billion of revenue here in 2025. And from a mix standpoint, in terms of customers, you can see, again, Ford is our largest customer, followed by Stellantis. And then we also participate with Toyota, Nissan. And then you can see 21% are what we say are other. That would be some smaller OEMs and some Tier 1s that we supply primarily out of our sealing and thermal product lines. From a regional perspective, you can see obviously pretty dominant in North America, but we do have a really good business in Europe and Asia, where we supply customers like JLR and VW and our high-performance dual-clutch transmission business. From a product line perspective, you can see just over 80% is considered driveline. So that would be axles, prop shafts, our specialty transmission business as well as motors and inverters. And then our sealing and thermal business, as Tim mentioned, used to be part of our Power Technologies business is now part of Light Vehicle Systems. And there, you'll find products like gaskets, engine oil coolers and battery coolers. If you go to Page 10, I won't spend a lot of time here, but just to give you a snapshot of some of the key nameplates that we participate. You can see names like Super Duty, Bronco, Ranger, obviously, Chief Wrangler and then with Toyota, the Tundra, Nissan Frontier, and the Land Rover truck nameplate. So you can see we're really a big player on really all of the key winning nameplates from a light truck perspective. And then when you look at Sealing and Thermal, you'll see a broader kind of customer mix there. And you can see with GM pretty heavy on the EV side, where we supply battery cooling plates and then multiple engine platforms across Ford and Stellantis, where we're supplying, again, products like gaskets and engine oil coolers. So a really good, I would say, mix of product vehicle lines that we participate on. And to that point, if you go to Page 11, just a week ago today, the North American Truck of the Year was announced at the Detroit Auto Show, the Ford Maverick Lobo, and we're very proud to be a key supply partner on this vehicle. You can see we've got a pretty diverse mix of products that we supply to the Ford Maverick, be it some of our thermal acoustic products, gaskets and ceiling products. And then you can see we're also supplying the rear drive unit, which is really a pretty high-tech product that we supply on this vehicle that has disconnecting all-wheel drive technologies as part of it. So very proud to participate on that program with Ford. So now to the backlog. I think about it in kind of 3 categories, if you will. So first, there are a set of platforms that we participate on today that are in our base business, but we have been successful in extending those programs. And as part of that, those programs have come with added content or in the case of Super Duty, added volume. You've obviously read that Ford plans to expand the capacity on Super Duty. So we're excited to participate in that expansion, and we expect those volumes to begin to increase with the addition of the Oakville capacity close to Q4 this year. And then in the example of both the Jeep Wrangler as well as the Bronco Sport, we've been fortunate to add content -- Dana content to those vehicles. So we will enjoy that increased volume, and you'll see that in our backlog. The second bucket is new programs. So we have several new programs that will begin to come online during the next 3-year period. The first I would highlight is the Jaguar vehicle. As you know, Jaguar has kind of redone their product strategy and will launch an all-new EV here later this year. We provide the electric drive unit as well as the battery cooling plates on that vehicle. Another one I would highlight is the Defender Sport, which will come out in an EV version. And again, we have the electric drive unit there. And then we put McLaren here as an example of our continued expansion of our high-performance transmission business, and that vehicle will launch here in the first half of this year. And then the third category from a Sealing and Thermal perspective, that was going to be a big driver of growth for us relative to our battery cooling business. But with the pullback in EV, what we're seeing is the longer life, if you will, on the ICE side and many of our customers revisiting their engine strategies and creating new product lines. And that's perfect for us. It falls right into the category of many of our sealing and thermal product lines, and you'll see us expand across a number of vehicle nameplates as well as new engines from our customers. So excited about the growth going forward from a light vehicle perspective. And with that, I'll hand it over to my colleague, Brian Porter, to talk about commercial vehicles.

Very good. Thank you, Byron. And good morning, everyone. I'm going to take you through our commercial vehicle landscape. We'll start on Slide 13. We'll talk through the -- how our split of business across our customers and regions. So let's first start with our customers. PACCAR remains our largest customer right at about 50% of our global turnover. Coming behind that, about the next 42% is represented across the remaining 4 major commercial vehicle players, first being Volkswagen or the Traton Group, which is inclusive of the MAN, International, Scania and Volkswagen nameplates, then Volvo, Daimler and Ford. The remaining 7% of our global turnover does fall into the specialty vehicle market, which will be more of your refuse, concrete mixers, fire trucks and so forth. When we look at it from a region perspective, we are nicely balanced around the globe. About 40% of our turnover comes out of North America, 30% out of Europe. About 20% out of South America. And then the Asia Pacific piece, that 8% represents our electrification -- predominantly our electrification portfolio in China and India. And then if we break out North America a little bit more, you'll see that it's a nice balance between our OE business being about 60% of the North American market between heavy-duty and medium duty and about 40% of that market is our installed base and independent aftermarket business. If you turn to Slide 14, I'll talk also, as Byron did, I'll talk about our backlog in the commercial vehicle space. across the top, you see that we're driving share gains across our key customers. And this is really a function of leveraging the new investments we brought online over the past couple of years in low-cost manufacturing in Mexico. And with that new investment, we've been able to make noticeable share increases, market share increases with PACCAR, Volvo and international. We're also leveraging our existing portfolio of both traditional and electrification products across the medium-duty and bus markets. We've been able to expand some of our traditional product line with key customers. We expand into their new platforms in Blue Bird and Isuzu with incremental business on the Blue Bird walk-in van commercial chassis and the Isuzu medium duty. We've also brought online now a new customer in Brazil, Agrale for their medium-duty line. And we continue to leverage our catalog electrification portfolio in the Asian markets where that adoption continue to grow. And this is a new business that we've been awarded with JSW. And then across the bottom, you see we've got our aftermarket represented here. In Europe today, we have about 1/3 of the independent aftermarket gasket business with our Victor Reinz brand. And we've taken an effort to put the resources in place to be able to bring that brand into North America and expand our presence in North America. And we're excited to announce that we've secured 2 good -- 2 large contracts with 2 of the key big box stores in the retail space, both with AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts. So also here, we're extremely excited about the growth and the future outlook in the in the commercial vehicle space. And from there, I'm going to hand it over to Tim.

Thanks, Brian. So just turn with me now to Page 16 and for a look at our preliminary results for Q4 and full year 2025. We delivered results at the high end of our ranges and above market consensus. So for the quarter, just under $1.9 billion in revenue, about $200 million in adjusted EBITDA for a margin of about 10.7%. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter came in around $325 million. So when you think about the margin as we move into 2026, we're exceedingly well positioned to be able to deliver our margin and financial commitments for 2026, given we're exiting 2025 well within the range for next year. And on that, so our full year preliminary results for 2025, about $7.5 billion in revenue, again, this is on a continuing ops basis. $600 million in adjusted EBITDA for a margin of about 8%. Adjusted free cash flow for the full year 350 -- about $315 million. Again, all of these were at the high end of the ranges that we put out back in October during our Q3 earnings call. So -- and now with that, let's discuss 2026 outlook. So if you turn the page to 17, we expect sales to be flat to 2025, as I discussed earlier, at around $7.5 billion at the midpoint of the range, with EBITDA coming in at $800 million, again, at the midpoint of our guidance range for an implied margin of 10.5% -- that's up $200 million and 250 basis points from our full year preliminary results for 2025. Despite the sale of Off-Highway, we still expect $300 million of adjusted free cash flow. And really, this is being driven by better margins on our sales conversion as well as lower interest and cash taxes as a result of the balance sheet delevering that we've done. With that, please turn with me now to Page 18. So speaking of lower interest, given the Off-Highway transaction closed January 1, I thought it would be great to lay out our improved capital structure looks like. We'll be reporting at year-end without the benefit of the delevering from the Off-Highway sale. So you look on the left side of the page, we're going to end the year with the capital structure we've had in place for some time. And as you look across our current capital structure, so if we look at it today, we've reduced debt by about $1.9 billion. And the red squares are the bits of debt that we have paid off to date. And so we'll be exiting the transaction with an extremely strong capital structure, right? No near-term debt. Our first maturity is in 2029, just over $200 million and with small maturities out until 2031. The capital that we have or the debt we have in the books has an average interest rate of right around 6%. So again, -- with that, I will turn it back to Bruce for some closing remarks.

Okay. Thanks, guys. Obviously, you can tell the team and I are very excited about Dana's accomplishments this year, but I'd say more excited about the future that's in front of us. And if you look at what we think -- what we've achieved over this past year, I think we've set consistently what have been seen externally as aggressive targets and consistently beat them. Cost reduction targets have put us in an exceptional position in terms of our margins. And as Tim said, up 250 basis points next year. We have a strong balance sheet. We've taken actions to focus on shareholder value creation with the sale of the Off-Highway business. In the course of the last year and a bit, we've created over $2 billion for our shareholders. And so we're incredibly proud of that. Looking forward, Dana is positioned to win. We see ongoing margin expansion. We have top line growth, not next year as a result of sort of the weak market. But I think with the commercial vehicle market being kind of in the near next year, I think we're exceptionally well positioned to continue to grow as we see some -- our backlog flow through and to get some tailwind from the markets for a change, which I think you'll see in '27 and beyond. So anyway, we got margin expansion growth, good cash flow generation. And I think that the new news today is our backlog is improving, and we expect to see top line growth as well. Then just finally, want to save the date out there. We plan on hosting a Capital Markets Day here on March 25 in New York, probably at the stock exchange. And here, what we're going to go through is our longer-term aspirations. I mean we continue to believe we've got an awful lot of opportunity for further margin expansion, and we'll go through our key strategies there as well as growth. We have several areas of growth that we want to -- that we're excited about that we want to share with the investment community, and we'll have a deep dive and be able to go through that in March. So please hold that date. With that, we'll open it up for questions, I think, Regina.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Tom Narayan with RBC.

I just wanted to drill down a bit on the EBITDA guidance for 2026. As it relates to the performance you guys did in 2025. So it looks like it goes up by $200 million of EBITDA sales are kind of relatively flattish. I know you have the $75 million in cost sales saves that leaves $125 million of kind of other. Now I know the exit margins were higher in Q4. In the past, you've called out like automation, EV cost alignment, standardization. And then you have this higher-margin business called out in Slide 17. Presumably, that's this aftermarket stuff. Just love some more details on the confidence in that other $125 million? And kind of what makes that up?

Okay. I'll turn it over to Tim. I mean, first of all, I'd say the confidence is off the charts. So Tim, I'll let you sort of give the walk.

Bruce and Tom, I would agree. Look, our confidence is exceedingly high. I think we had high confidence when we were here a year ago about what we're going to do for '25 and I think we're equally bullish on what we can do for '26. But really a couple of things. One, we've got stranded costs sitting in the $600 million we delivered this year that are going to come out. We've got accretive new business coming on that will also add margin to the business, both in terms of dollars and margin percentage. And I think the operating performance of the business, right? We continue to -- we think about our cost saving program, that's above the plants. We really see a lot of opportunities, and we continue to drive those opportunities on the plant operating performance. And then we believe we still have more options or more availability to go and get pricing and look at the portfolio and really optimize it to deliver that growth. So highly confident. I mean, I think if you go back, right, we kind of laid out those four areas. Cost savings, accretive new business, eliminating stranded costs and our operating performance, and that's what the team is focused on. And we're highly confident we'll be able to deliver the extra $200 million or the additional $200 million in EBITDA for 2026.

Just a quick follow-up. Is that aftermarket business new? Is that why it's incrementally new that maybe you weren't capturing that before?

No, the business is always -- we always had the aftermarket business. And what I think what you're seeing now is and Brian touched on this, is a renewed focus of the -- we've now put all of our aftermarket business into the CV segment and Brian is running that. And maybe I'll let Brian, if you got a couple of comments on aftermarket. But it is a renewed focus and really front and center for us.

I think -- thank you, Tim. I think really for the aftermarket business for us, it's about looking at our portfolio, understanding from not only a portfolio but a region is where are we underrepresented. And making sure that we're leveraging our -- the brands that we have. We have two very, very strong brands out there in the market being our Spicer brand and our Victor Reinz brand. And we're putting the incremental support investments into our aftermarket business to make sure that we can capitalize on those opportunities.

I would put it, Tom, in the -- as we've sort of challenged the team to how we're going to grow ex off-highway here. I would put aftermarket, and there's other examples that we'll touch on in our Analyst Day areas where markets that we're in that we haven't prioritized as growth opportunities, aftermarkets one, I would -- another example in defense. We have a small presence in the defense market in CV, very high-margin business, and we've never really allocated a significant amount of new resources there. So as we go forward, we're going to be increasing our investment in some of these growth areas that are highly accretive to our margins.

Our next question comes from the line of James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

Good morning, everybody. I'd like to better understand the pro forma balance sheet and just the known movements in cash. So I guess, first off, can you confirm what the year-end cash balance is after the proceeds, your reported free cash flow, all that stuff. With the year-end cash balance that hopefully a number that you could share right now. Then just to confirm, in the first quarter, you've got the $1.9 billion in total debt reduction and maybe another $190 million regarding the TM4 buyout. Are those the two major known pieces?

Yes, that's correct. So if you think through it. So from a cash perspective, we tend to carry $400 million to $450 million in cash on the balance sheet. We expect that to be a bit higher than that coming out, so somewhere between $450 million and $500 million, probably at the higher end of that range in terms of where we'll end the year. Obviously, we had a really good fourth quarter in terms of our free cash flow generation. So there -- and then yes. So we -- of the proceeds we received, we used $1.9 billion of those to pay down debt immediately, did that a couple of weeks ago. And then yesterday, we spent about a little less than $200 million to buy out our joint venture with Hydro-Quebec.

Okay. So excluding the proceeds at year-end, you finished towards the high end of $500 million.

High end of $450 million, $500 million, correct.

Thing I keep in mind there is we did buy back -- our stock buyback was $650 million instead of $600 million that we guided to it. So I'd just point that out.

So think about the year-end cash -- just James , our year-end cash number is inclusive of the stock buybacks. That's where we ended the year.

Inclusive of the buybacks, but exclusive of the proceeds? .

Correct. We didn't get the proceeds until '26.

Yes. Okay. Understood. I appreciate that. So then as I think about -- what drives the -- I mean, I know you've touched on it already, but just for better clarity. What drives the 1% implied core sales decline? Because if I look at your end market table, right, the matrix. I mean, every region slightly up with the exception of North America and solely driven by North America heavy duty. So can you just kind of double-click on what informs that core sales?

Yes. So some is mix. But again, if you look at the table you're referring to on Page 8, and I tried to cover this off in my comments, but I probably didn't do a very good job. We're just showing full frame truck. Don't forget, we've got inside of the light vehicle segment, we have more than just full frame trucks. So there, we've got a mix of pass car and small SUV. So there are other volume impacts as well as mix issues that are driving some of that additional lower top line sales.

Yes. Maybe, James, the other thing is, I mean, obviously, we've taken our -- we put together our plan a few months ago. And so I would say, look, we want to plan on a conservative market assumption basis. I think if you, if we were starting again today, we would say, you know what, there's maybe some more green shoots than we have factored into our plan. But I would rather plan on a conservative volume basis. So could it be $100 million or something million stronger? Sure thing.

Yes, which is why our top line sales are -- our band is plus or minus $200 million to account for that. But what you're seeing is the difference between like full-frame trucks and the overall light vehicle segment and what the Light Vehicle segment sells into, which is more than just full frame truck as well as mix.

And then just slip one more in here. The $200 million to $300 million of buybacks for this year, is it safe to assume that the March Analyst Day will be the platform for Dana to really touch on the future capital allocation, shareholder return?

Yes, absolutely. I mean we'll talk about all of it, right? Where we see the business, where our growth vectors are, how we see the business performing and what we're going to do with the capital we're generating. Correct.

Our next question will come from the line of Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank.

This is Winnie Yan for Edison. Maybe just sticking to the last question or the one before last question. Drilling down on your assumptions for North America heavy duty, I do see that it's -- you're assuming about like more than 10% decline. If we just look at some of the forecast changes from [ App Research ], I think it's roughly flat to down low single digits. So I'm wondering if you can maybe provide some context for that assumption within the outlook? And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. I mean -- so Bruce mentioned, obviously, we put the plan together a bit ago. So some of these have moved a little bit. Some of it's just dependent upon hey, where in the heavy truck segment are things going to move around. But again, I think we could see some green shoots and maybe a little bit better than where we're predicting, but this is where we've built the plan at this point. So again, that's the reason we have couple of hundred million dollars of upside when you think about the plan because there could be some movements in the market and heavy duty certainly could be one of them.

Okay. Got it. That's very clear. And then maybe you can give us a flavor of what you might be reviewing on the Capital Markets Day. It looks like you'd be able to generate stronger cash over the next few years. So is it going to be more share buyback, more dividend or inorganic opportunities? Maybe just like a preliminary...

I can take that. So at our Analyst Day, we're going to focus on the bulk of presentation is on our growth strategy because I think we don't really get any credit for the fact that I think we've got an exceptionally strong growth pipeline, and it's not something that people are focused on. So we're going to spend a lot of time on that. We're going to be sharing our margin aspirations over the next 5 years in the glide path. And in terms of capital allocation, the plan that we're going to share is an organic growth plan. So we'll touch on what we see as being sort of slightly higher in organic -- sorry, organic reinvestment in our business, which will use some of that free cash flow. And then our call on capital is going to be -- continue to be returning it to the shareholders. How we do that is 100% dependent on how we see the market view on our share price versus our view on its intrinsic value. And we've talked on these calls before, how I've been pretty consistent that I don't think we're getting credit for the opportunities that lay ahead for Dana. And as a result of that, we're backing up the truck and buying back stock. And that's how we think about it. I think going forward, as we continue to demonstrate to the Street that we're meeting our commitments and we maybe start to get some credit for our longer-term strategies, we'll start to maybe turn the page and look for areas inorganically where we can accelerate our growth. Anyway, that's kind of an early discussion that we're starting to have with our Board. But I think that's about as clear as I can be in terms of how we think about it.

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with UBS.

Maybe just one quick housekeeping question. Just of the $750 million total 3-year backlog, roughly how much is light trucks versus commercial vehicle?

Yes, the majority is going to be light truck, right? I mean if you think about the rest of the business, it's -- they're not large programs and program specific. So a big chunk of that backlog is light truck. [indiscernible] I mean I don't want to -- it's not [indiscernible]. It's majority, yes -- yes, it's well north of 50%, obviously. But yes, I mean, it's a big...

Okay. And then -- I mean maybe just to sort of help square the circle, if you will, just on some of the expectations for '26 sales. Like you're saying in your market outlook, heavy-duty down more than 10%, medium-duty up. This is North America up 3% to 5%. Like is aftermarket included in that? Or are you thinking about that separately? Because as you highlighted, that's 43% of the business, and it sounded like there were some good opportunities there. So it seems like there could be some decent growth for a pretty chunky part of the business.

Yes. So the market side is on the OE. Generally like -- and we have a sizable aftermarket business in the CV part of that business in terms of the market side, but those sales flow through, generally, we're talking about 5-plus years later when you think about the sales, right? But yes, there's certainly some improvement there from what's rolling through from an aftermarket perspective on their traditional light vehicle sealing part of the business.

And keep in mind, Joe, as Tim said in his comments, like we don't count increasing share at our current customers in our backlog, and we do expect that. So our sales will do better than the market outlook as a result of that.

Okay. But sorry, but just separating backlog from just the '26 sales outlook, do you expect aftermarket maybe even broadly just to grow in '26 versus '25?

We do. Correct. And it's built into our plan.

Okay. Last one, and sorry if I missed this. Anything we should think about -- it sounds like CapEx is going higher next year. I know it's a little bit difficult to compare like new Dana versus sort of old Dana. But how should we think about CapEx, working capital -- for your free cash flow guidance...

Yes. I mean working capital should be an improvement, and we're calling somewhere in the 4% range for CapEx for new data for 2026.

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

Congrats on the continued transformation. I'd like to ask on TM4. Over the years, we've heard from various executives, literally not from you Bruce, but from various other executives at Dana and at American Axle and Magna that it is maybe not so important that the separate electric motor gearbox and power electronic components of an integrated 3-in-, 4-in-1 and a 5-in-1 system now that they necessarily be developed in-house and manufactured under a single corporate roof, whereas BorgWarner, which I think has got a successful offering here is always maintained the opposite saying it does confer an advantage. So I'm curious if you view the TM4 consolidation as something that just made good financial sense when considering the purchase price paid relative to the additional JV income retained? Or does it potentially confer important strategic or commercial benefits do you think?

Yes. I would say -- I wouldn't read into this anything around our strategy like we had a joint venture, our partner had put option, and they exercised it. And they got into this as purely an investor, Hydro-Quebec. They're not in the automotive industry. So we've been in discussions with them since a year ago, May. We just concluded the valuation work and all that stuff. And so buying them out is not any indication of -- there's nothing around our strategy. It was just contractual. I think the -- is there -- you talked about some of our competitors in the supply base saying there's strategic value in having it in-house and others have a different view. We made the decision some time ago it need to be in-house back when the market opportunity was much, much higher. I guess I would sit here and say, listen, I certainly understand both sides of that argument. We have the assets. They're performing well. Now we own 100% of them. And it's something that we're -- it's a question -- it's a very good question, and it's one that we're asking ourselves internally, but we haven't got an answer for you right now.

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, I wanted to ask if maybe with all these big portfolio moves behind you, and you now have an emerged with the leaner corporate structure and haven't been so aggressive already on return of capital to shareholders and debt paydown, if maybe there might be a focus on investing more internally in the operations. It sounds like today already, you're talking about to support these conquest wins and maybe appetite for more. Also other things, I don't know, bolt-on, other consolidation opportunities or maybe does it require the next step for improving the margin of the business to spend to make money by consolidating facilities or investing in restructuring? Or what are you looking to -- what opportunities are there for internally investing that you're weighing against more return of capital or further...

Yes, Ryan, I think that's a great question. And we've covered this, I think, a couple of times. But yes, we -- one of the reasons we'll spend a bit more from a CapEx perspective going into this year is we're turning our attention to investing into the business from an automation perspective, an efficiency perspective. Earlier in the call, we talked about, hey, how do you generate the extra 250 basis points of margin going into -- from '25 to '26. Part of it is efficiency at the plant level, and that's exactly what we're going to do. Over the last 3, 4, 5, 6 years, we've been spending a lot of our free cash flow building out what we thought was going to be a $4 billion or $5 billion EV business. And we don't -- that's not where that business is, and we're now able to spend more of our operating free cash flow on places that like the plant floor and improvements from an operating perspective to be able to drive better margins. But again, in March, we'll lay out that in a bunch more detail, but we are going to continue to increase our investments internally to drive better returns in the business. And if you think about those invested dollars. Like they're in plants, generally ICE plants that we have known platforms. We know what the sales are basically going to be, and we know what those returns. So high confidence, high-return type investments. And yes, that's going to -- those are where we're going to spend some dollars and continue to drive that efficiency.

But it's going to be -- Ryan, it's going to be both. So we're not going to fall back into this like as we generate more cash, it's all going to get reinvested in the business. It's going to be a balanced approach to growing our margins so that we can increase the investment in our business and increase the amount of capital that we have available to return to our shareholders or potentially invest in inorganic opportunities if and only if they can accelerate some of our growth strategies. That's the way we think about it.

Yes. It is a very good point, right? We're not going to go back to the days of investing -- reinvesting every single dollar we generate.

And our final question will come from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays.

First, I wanted to maybe drill down on the margin dynamics for this year. And I know you talked about incremental cost saves and saves that are going on in the factory floor. But maybe you could just address a few items and how that looks within the bridge. One is tariffs. I think you exited last year with roughly $20 million unrecovered. Do you get that back? Second is commodities, how that might look? And then the third piece is if you could just talk about any recoveries on EV programs where you made investments, but the volumes never materialized because they were canceled or delayed.

Yes. Yes. I'll let -- why don't you touch on the first part of that number?

Yes, yes. So the answer to your question is, yes, we do believe we're going to get most of the under-recoveries from a tariff perspective back in this year. So that will help a bit. Obviously, there's a lot of other things going on with tariffs right now. So we're obviously keeping a close eye on that in general. Commodities is a slight headwind in 2026 versus 2025. So those are the -- a couple of those. And then I'm sorry, your last point was on...

Well, EV...

Maybe I'll let Byron on customer recoveries and pricing.

Yes, for sure, on the EV front, as you guys have all seen, right, our customers are all revisiting their EV strategies and either delaying programs or canceling programs or significantly reducing volumes. And in each of those cases, we've been successful, I would say, in working with our customers on various forms of recovery. Some of that is behind us and some is ongoing. But we see a path towards, let's say, rightsizing that business and getting commercial recoveries accordingly.

Yes. And I think one thing to think about is like Bruce mentioned we're taking a small charge, so -- which is reflective of the fact that we've been pretty successful, one, in not putting down capital too early in the process. So we just don't have a lot that we have to go after. And the second side, both Bruce and Brian and the teams have been successful from a recovery perspective. Bear in mind that for a lot of the programs where it's just volume related, that recovery generally comes in the form of better pricing on products that are going to be sold in the future. So there isn't a lot flowing through the P&L on a short-term basis. And if you do think -- if you go back to our third quarter call, we called out $8 million or $10 million that we had to take for a charge related to canceled programs and sort of how much of that do we get back, we're able to get most of that back. So it's a great story. The teams have done a really good job of going and working with the customers to get those -- to get the economic recoveries we need to on both ongoing programs and anything that's been canceled.

Great. As a follow-up, I want to touch on a thread of questions that you've addressed here on sort of your overall revenue composition. And I think with the Off-Highway sale, you're going to a much more concentrated structure, much more heavy on North America light vehicles, much heavier customer composition. And this is maybe a bit different than what we've seen from some of your competitors who have sort of tried to go into more non-auto. And I just want to understand the efforts to get more aftermarket or some of these other end markets, should we view right now your current revenue mix as more of a placeholder as you're going to start to maybe rediversify? Or is the focus still going to be much more heavily on North America ICE light vehicle with a few key customers that are the dominant piece of the customer mix?

I think -- well, first of all, our mix is as of today. And CVs in a very depressed market level. So I think as the CV market recovers, that will help us a little bit. But no, our strategy is -- will be more of a diversification. We do see aftermarket becoming a bigger piece of the pie. We've got tremendous opportunities to gain share in commercial vehicle. And so I think that's going to be a story that you got to focus on in 2026. Obviously, because our light vehicle business is large and biggest piece today, it's sort of two-pronged -- 2-headed dragon, I guess. On one hand, the market is shifting into our sweet spot. Our customers are growing ICE with fuel prices coming down. They're prioritizing SUV and larger trucks. And that is a positive for us. You can see we're underrepresented in Asia. That's -- and on the LV side, that's probably because there is no Super Duty in Asia. It's more of a passenger car market. So I would expect our diversification is going to improve, but not meaningfully from an organic perspective just because for all the growth opportunities that we have outside LV, we've got an awful lot inside LV. So anyway, hey, with that, I'm going to have to wrap things up because we're running out of time. We really appreciate the questions. As you know, Tim and Craig are available for follow-up calls. Again, thank you, everybody, for your interest in Dana. Thank you, especially to the Dana team for making 2025 happen, and our best days are ahead of us. And thank you very much.

This will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.