Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. I assume it's 1 minute after 12. So good afternoon. And I'm very, very pleased to be joined today by Christian Sewing, the CEO of Deutsche Bank and of course, welcome to our European Financials Conference. I think it's your first time.

That's true, actually.

So even a warmer welcome.

And we'll start our fireside chat with a polling question. Could I have it on? Thank you very much. So if I could ask you to vote, what will be the most important driver for share price over the next 12 to 24 months? I'm not going to read the answers. We've got 10 seconds, please. [Voting]

Relatively clear. We'll address some of the -- some of these in our conversation. But Christian, let's start with your thoughts about the kind of the current global backdrop and particularly, given the events in the U.S., what do you see as the impact to the industry and, of course, impact on yourselves?

Well, of course, one needs to watch that closely. I mean you see again also today's movements. So with 33 years of experience, you always know that a 1-day drop or a 2-day drop then calming situation that may not be the end. So it is volatile markets, no doubt. But I think we should also be very clear that there is, in my view, no similarity of that, in particular, what we have seen on the West Coast with that, what you see with European banks. And in particular, I can best talk obviously about Deutsche Bank. Because if you look at, for instance, our deposit structure, then you have obviously, a very diversified deposit structure. We have EUR 600 billion in deposits. We have, out of that, I think, 44% in the private bank, highly diversified across 19 million clients, very sticky. Then the next big block is with 33% -- or 35% actually, is the corporate bank. Also there, if you go through all our corporate clients, most of that is obviously in Germany, then you see not only the diversification, but the stickiness. And therefore, I do believe that, first of all, the way our liability side and the deposits are structured is completely different, number one. Number two, I also do believe, and you have heard it before, you have seen it, you have read it, regulation is a different one when it comes to liquidity coverage ratios. When it comes also to go through what needs to be deducted from capital and whatnot. If I look again at Deutsche Bank, not only that we are subject to a different regulation, which in my view, in this regard, is the right regulation. But also if I look at our securities portfolio, hold-to-maturity securities portfolio, it's an immaterial number. So there is no issue like that. I think James has done a wonderful job in doing the refinancing and funding of the job with more than 50% of our 2023 funding we have already done. And in this regard, we are very much well positioned for this year. And then to be very honest, we have seen -- of course, you shouldn't draw conclusions from 3 days. But what we have seen, given I think the turnaround of Deutsche Bank and the robustness of our structure, we have seen incoming deposits over the last 3 or 4 days because people are doing that what is usual in these times, fly to quality. And therefore, I think one should not really compare the one situation with the European banks, and in particular, I can speak for us, not with us. So I'm calm. I'm robust. Our exposure to that bank was immaterial, too. The overall regional banks is immaterial. So I'm calm about this. But it always means you need to watch the market, and obviously, you see a lot of volatility.

Yes. Yes. No, absolutely. Let's may be talk about the business because, of course, you've delivered the Compete to Win transformation with the '22 results. And when you look back, of course, a lot of achievements. But which -- what are you particularly kind of proud of? And also, how does the kind of finalization of the transformation set you up for the future? And when you kind of talk to kind of shareholders, what are you getting back?

Well, I think what I'm proud of or what I'm really happy about is kind of five things. Number one, Deutsche Bank has found its balance -- And balance means that we have four thriving businesses, four well-run business. And the nice thing is that what we have promised to the market, that we will get a far better balanced bank is exactly happening. I think we have seen it over the development over the last 3 years, we have, in particular, seen it then in '22 and that goes on. So if I look at the share of the stable business, if I may say, a stable business to the Asset Management, Private Bank and Corporate Bank, in particular, private and corporate bank, it's now more than 70% of the pretax profit of the group, which tells me we're on the right way, and that momentum is continuing. So you can also see that these are the businesses where Deutsche Bank is good at, where we are competitive, and that's number one. Number two, I think we've been disciplined on cost. There is no end to it. I think we need to do more. And that's why we said we need to go for the next EUR 2 billion. But we took EUR 3 billion out of a bank, and at the same time, we increased revenues more than our initial plan and more than the market expected. So a really good operating leverage with the discipline on costs. Number three, what we had to do and what we still need to do is investments in technology. Despite all doing this, we invested EUR 15 billion in controls and technology over the years '19 to 2022, which was necessary, but actually positioned us not only to take cost out, increase controls, but very important to also make our business more attractive to our clients. Otherwise, the reengineering of the FICC business would have had been done and possible without those investments. Number four, we kept always through all the crisis which we have seen. And when I took over, I never thought about COVID and to be honest, I did not expect this awful war in the Ukraine. But we managed the whole turnaround through the crisis, supporting our clients with our own capital without tapping the markets. There were a lot of skepticism at the start, whether it's possible, we did this. And we then even started with distributing capital, and we have a clear plan how to distribute capital and how much until the year '25, which we stick to. Now these are the four items, which we also brought to the market, so balanced business, discipline on costs, all within our capital investments into those business where we need to be. Number five, I'm most proud about, the pride is back in the organization to work for Deutsche Bank. And I think a lot of people underestimate what that actually means. I have seen a bank in 2018 where there was a lot of insecurity. There was potentially also not that pride to work. I know that some colleagues potentially didn't even admit that they work for Deutsche Bank. We had higher attrition. This is completely different now. The people are proud to be with Deutsche Bank. Again, we can see it then obviously in the client reaction and that the clients have trust in us. And based on these four achievements, the most important is turning around the clients' mood and the pride in the organization and that makes me so confident that we are on the right path.

Perfect. So let's kind of take this discussion a little bit further because, of course, the stable business contribution, as you just kind of mentioned, is increasing. But when you think about your expectations for '23 and beyond, how much of that will be driven by the underlying business growth versus, of course, the tailwind of the rates -- the higher interest rates?

It's both. I mean, of course, we are benefiting, in particular, in the Corporate Bank, and you've seen it in '22. We see it now in the first quarter where we have a nice continuation and increase of the momentum in Corporate Bank, very much driven by the NII. There is no doubt. But for me, and therefore, your question is so important, it's also key that the underlying business is increasing. And we can see that in the Corporate Bank that we win mandates in terms of cash management mandates, in terms of securities mandates, in terms of trade finance. So there, you can again see that the credibility, which we have won with our clients is actually also fueling obviously, the revenue momentum we see in that business. Similar in the Private Bank. And therefore, I do believe also what we have seen over the last 4 or 5 days, if you show to the market that you are robust, if you show to the market that you are sustainable, profitable, like we have done that, actually, I do believe that clients actually not only trust you, but even place more business with us. So in essence, what we can see is now in '23, a continuation in the stable business based on NII, no doubt. Actually, the Private Bank, it will come even more later in '24 and '25 because of our bucketing and our conservative positioning. But in the Corporate Bank, it's rising very much, but also the underlying business is growing. And that's actually for me, even nicer because that is a really sustainable world we're trying to.

That's right. So let's talk about your kind of German corporate clients because, of course -- what are you hearing from them? Our expectations have kind of have changed quite dramatically over the last -- over the last year. We were kind of looking at the recessionary scenario. There maybe not now. There now kind of things are mixed a lot of uncertainty. And of course, you pretty much are kind of very ingrained into that -- into the kind of German corporate world. So really, what are you hearing? What are you seeing in kind of underlying business trends? And maybe also what are the worries what? What's now.

I would call it, it's a cautious optimism, if I call January and February. Obviously, I didn't talk too much to the corporates now over the last 3 or 4 days, whether the volatility in the market change our views, which I don't believe because obviously, their focus is a little bit on different items. But if I see the mood change in the German corporate industry, whether it's the global corporates, but also the mid caps, it's clearly a better mood in January and February than before Christmas. Now there are two main factors to be honest, Magdalena, which speak for that. It's on the one hand, the milder winter. I mean it is clear that Germany -- I mean, now we are in March. I mean we should be through the winter despite snow in Frankfurt this morning. But the winter, we are coming through without any energy problems, which was a big question mark. By the way, I expect that the storages are filled out of the winter with 60%, which is very important for the German corporates because that actually means that you go with a nice buffer into the next winter. So the big concern of a lot of corporates at the next winter may be even tougher than this winter is a little bit fading away. I'm not saying call it off and we should not worry at all, but it's a much lower risk than it was before Christmas. So that's number one. Number two, reopening of China, very important for Germany. And we always think about the top DAX companies, of course, also important for them. But if you think about the German mid-cap industry, it's export dominant. And obviously, there is a lot of business not only to China, but also to all other parts of the world, but the reopening needs actually positive momentum. And therefore, I would say that the mood is better. You have seen that the majority of the analysts talking about Europe and, in particular, Germany, are thinking now that the recession is avoidable. Look, I think the market is so volatile that I think it's a little bit too early to call that completely off, but a deep recession, or that it's clear that we get a recession, I do believe that this is now a downside and is not happening. So overall, clearly a better mood. Now there is a difference between the large corporate and the mid-cap corporates in Germany. And the key question is always, and now I'm coming to the first worry, which is inflation. The key question for all the corporates is, can they pass on the increased pricing? For the global corporates, it is actually easier given their market position, also given the fact that they can change supply chains a little bit better and more efficient than one product shop, so to say, in the mid-cap area. And there, you can see a little bit of a difference that actually the mid-cap sector is a bit more affected by that than the global corporates. But never underestimate the resilience of the German mid-cap sector. I see Manfred Knof here. He will tell you the same, I hope so. But it is really resilient. And I think they have done a very good job to come through this time, which was not easy for them. But inflation going forward is one item. Last thing, and then I come to the future worries, is I do believe the German government has done a good job last year. Imagine, they came into office as a new government. They had a Ukraine war after 2 months and an over 50% dependency on Russian gas. That item is not off the table, but it's very much mitigated. And I think the way the economy corporates, banks and government work together was very helpful last year. So the immediate crisis was well tackled and therefore you see a better mood. Now it's key to ensure that the master plan for Germany and Europe is in order. So the next steps now to make sure that Europe and Germany remains competitive is key. And that's what we all need to focus on. What does it mean? We need to think about long-term energy independence in terms of supply that is there, in terms of pricing. We need to make sure that regulation is contained. And I'm not talking here now in this center is about banking regulation. We can also talk about that. But I mean it across the sectors. Europe is overregulated across sectors. We need to bring bureaucracy down. If you think about how long it still takes in Germany to apply for certain licenses, to think about a wind park in Germany, it takes years and years. We need to bring this down. We need to make targeted investments in certain future industries in order to remain competitive. I think the green industry, the green technology is something where Europe and Germany clearly is advanced. We need to make sure that we keep it with all kinds of new regulations on the green side. In the chemical industry, you need to go through 14,000 papers in order to understand the taxonomy. It's too much. And that, we can't lose. And therefore, I think the next step in order to contain and make sure that the competitiveness is contained in Europe, that is important that governance, but also we, as corporates, are really focusing on this. That means working together on these items. If we do it in the spirit like in the last 12 months, I'm actually confident.

Perfect. Let's -- we've talked about the corporate bank. We've kind of -- we've touched upon the Private Bank, particularly from the perspective of the kind of duration of its interest rate and the sensitivity. But let's also look at the Investment Bank because, of course, your FIC franchise has kind of developed very well in the last 2 years. What's your broader kind of plan around growing that FIC franchise kind of further? And how does it also kind of fit within your broader corporate franchise? And yes, and of course, also, let's also talk about your equity franchise because it's also kind of -- it's also developed quite nicely there.

Yes. First of all, let me be clear, I always said it. A focused global Investment Bank is for Deutsche Bank key because otherwise, our corporate clients, in particular, will not deal with us. We are one of the few left European banks with a functioning Investment Bank in those businesses where we are and that will stay. Now you said it, I'm very happy with the progress we have seen on the fixed side. We have seen stellar results. We have gained market share. And to be honest, if I look at my plan, I want to grow the stable businesses. Of course, I always have an ambition also to grow further the Investment Bank. But for me, it is more about now consolidation. And because I think we have seen stellar results in FIC, I do believe that overall, the Investment Bank year-over-year, also in '23, can be approximately on previous year's level, but it will be a little bit of a different composition. FIC had a fantastic year. I don't think that you can one-to-one repeat it. And to be honest, we will also see it in Q1. We always said it. Last year, Q1, and FIC was stellar. We still have, I think, a very nice Q1 there also in FIC, but it will be lower than last year. Now we see an improvement, in particular, in O&A, in particular, if I compare it to Q4 and Q3 of last year. So also below Q1 last year because it was still higher in Q1 last year in 2022, activity was high, but you can see that fuel is coming back, which is good. So for us, it is in FIC -- in the FIC business. It's very much consolidation and targeted expansion. You've heard us talking about Mexico, we reopened. We are -- we want to increase our business there. We are investing very much in the automated platforms. Again, Ram Nayak has done a fantastic job in doing that for the rates business. We are now doing similar things for the credit trading business where we can further improve. So I think the Investment Bank has really seen a turnaround. Now it's about targeted increases. But overall, I would say, for the time being, consolidation in the Investment Bank. And again, if you see it year-over-year quarter 1 over quarter 1 last year, you will see a decline because of the stellar, stellar Q1, but still, I think, on a very nice level. The real item, and therefore, I'm confident that the stable business are making good for that. And therefore, from an overall revenue performance, you can see the shift which we wanted to have, again, in particular, driven by the Corporate Bank, but also by the Private Bank. And that makes me overall, so comfortable that the balance of the bank is actually absolutely in order, and we do that, what we wanted to do, decrease dependencies, and that's the result of the last years.

Absolutely. So let's maybe kind of finalize our conversation from a business perspective on the Private Bank. So of course, we've mentioned the interest rate side and the benefits come being more of a 2024, 2025 story. Could you tell us a little bit more about that? And kind of any other kind of growth items that you're focusing on?

The Private Bank is a story where we are focusing on both top line revenue growth and at the same time, we need to get more efficient. You all know the big name Project Unity, which comes to an end in 2023; will take a 3-digit million of savings out of this bank. And that is, for us, obviously, very important. It's a huge IT integration task, very pleased with the progress. And in the middle of this year, this will be done. Then it is not over with taking efficiency out of the Private Bank. [ carfornova ] is actually already working on the next plan in order to take more money and more costs out of the Private Bank. But you can see, obviously, in the Private Bank, what I alluded to before is that the real NII push is coming in '24 and '25. We see a quite strong first quarter in the Private Bank now. Now the first quarter is always the strongest one, at least, at Deutsche Bank, in the Private Bank. That's what we can see right now. But overall, you see that the NII is kicking in, but you also see an underlying growth in the businesses, what I also said for the Corporate Bank, so that I'm quite happy with the momentum. The only thing you all need to bear in mind is if you think about the Private Bank this year, we had last year, approximately, EUR 400 million of extraordinary revenues, in particular, given the sale of the Italian business, which made approximately EUR 300 million. But overall, that doesn't make me nervous because we get good tailwind on the NII side. Where do we want to particularly grow in the Private Bank? It's next to efficiencies in the day-to-day retail business. It's, in particular, in the Wealth Management. And there, we obviously focus on a global offering in the Wealth Management. We have done really good hires in Asia, in Southern Europe. We can see that this is paying off. I think also in a peer comparison in 2022, we performed very well, and this gives us all the -- yes, comfort that we can continue to do that always in a measured and controlled way but that business also, again, coming to the roots and inner belief of the Deutsche Bank, this is a classic Deutsche Bank business, the affluent and Wealth Management business. And there, we see particular growth.

Let's maybe take our kind of cost conversation a little bit further because we talked about the Private Bank, but you also spoke about your cost in 2023 being kind of flat. And you also talked about the kind of trajectory into 2025, supported by kind of efficiency measures from here, right? because we've literally done with the transformation program as such. Can you provide us with the details of how do you see the kind of cost base pretty much going forward? We know the numbers. But from one perspective, there's inflation. But from another perspective, of course, there's the pretty much, as you say, kind of never-ending efficiency search.

Sure. It is -- yes. So you mentioned the key numbers. We are working on the EUR 2 billion program, which, by the way, started already in 2022 because the first EUR 490 million we took out of the EUR 2 billion in 2022, that program is structured and is delivering year-by-year. It's not a completely even process year-over-year but I'm very confident on the EUR 2 billion. To your question, I don't think that the EUR 2 billion are sufficient for this bank. And therefore, we announced already at our full year earnings that we are working on more in order also to make sure that we are offsetting potential higher inflation than we initially thought last year in March, and potentially also that the inflation is not coming back to a 2% rate in 2024. And therefore, we are working on additional measures. Now these additional measures are never ending, as you're pointing out. What is it? We are clearly working on further workforce optimization. That is also kind of the number of layers we have in this bank. I think we can do better. It's a question of location, Magdalena, where do we have our people. And also there, we can see that with the talent management we have, I think we can even do a better sourcing and a better location management. That, in turn, means obviously that our real estate costs will come further down, and I'm not talking here about a double-digit number. It will be higher. And last, but not least, all the automation and all the IT and technology progress you are seeing in this world. I mean, yesterday, you have seen the Google announcement. We are very close with Google, will have an impact, how we can do our business. I think if you think about items, comparable items like ChatGPT, what could that mean for our businesses and the way we are operating call centers, will be different. So all that will come on top so that I think we need to go more than the EUR 2 billion. I can't give you detailed numbers, but then I'm talking confidently about more than EUR 2 billion should give you some confidence. And I think this is needed in order to really make sure that you are obviously not only focusing on the top line, but you do your homework. And we have done it very well on EUR 3 billion, but that's not enough. We need to do more. We are committed to do more.

Perfect. So let's move maybe a little bit more shorter term. As you look at kind of from 1Q, could you give us kind of color of how the business or how the operating divisions are doing?

Well, I hope I gave you a little bit direction. I'm really happy with the momentum in the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank. I think -- or let me start differently. I think the consensus, which is currently in the market is not bad on revenues. But I think the composition is wrong. And therefore, the stable business are doing simply well, and they are doing a bit better. I'm confident that we can do better than people potentially now estimate by a bit. I also told you that I do believe that Q1 in the Investment Bank is still a very good and robust result but potentially a little bit lower, what the consensus is now. But overall, the consensus number on [indiscernible] -- the right one. On the cost side, we will deliver flat to last year. The only guidance I can give you that flat to last year does not mean flat to last year's first quarter. So there, listen to the comments, what James already said. We always gave you guidance that with the inflation we have, we have approximately direct operating cost per month of [ 1,600 to 1,650 ]. So if you take the midpoint, you are not bad. Then you have, obviously, in the first quarter, the banking levy, which we have to pay and always a little bit of smaller restructuring. So -- but that brings me to a cost number, which I think is absolutely bringing us on the path to being overall flat to last year. And then we have risk costs, which alongside the guidance, also there, the consensus is not bad. I think we have risk costs overall for the year, which are flattish year-over-year, potentially a bit higher, [ 350 ] to -- yes, [ 375 ] in the first quarter. And therefore, I think we are running really well, and it gives me all the confidence that all the outlook which we have given for the full year, we are absolutely confident that we can achieve that. Most important with an even more balanced revenue number, and that is, for me, the real goal and the real achievement.

Perfect. I'm conscious that I still have quite a few questions, but I will -- I'll check with the audience, yes, whether if there's any questions. Gentleman over here, 1, 2, 3. Fourth row.

One is about -- I mean, the fragmentation of German banking with, I think, 370 saving banks in the -- more than 700 cooperative banks. So one, when we see what's happening with the -- in U.S., one thing to know, for sure, on these 1,000 banks, there will be casualties also taking into account how much deposits they have. So just your view, I mean, what needs to happen for this picture to change? And what do you think is going to be the role of Deutsche Bank? And I mean, if I may, is it the Chairman regulator really looking into this and the dangers that we can see a couple of these cooperative banks or saving banks coming out and saying, look, actually, I got it wrong also?

Look, first of all, I do believe, and I'm not a specialist in terms of saving banks or cooperative banks. I'm running Deutsche Bank, and I have my hand full with that, but with all the joy. So -- but let me be clear, the diversified deposit structure, which I just described for Deutsche Bank, I think I can say that it's similar true for saving banks and cooperative banks. They are really very diversified when it comes to their deposit structure. I also have no doubt that they're from the capital side. They are actually well capitalized. And you have seen within the savings banks and cooperative banks now, I'm 33 years in banking, you just quoted 357 saving banks. I think when I did my apprenticeship in 1989 at Deutsche Bank, we had 2,000 saving banks and it constantly goes down. So there is consolidation within the sector. If you ask my personal view, again, this is just my personal view on the banking sectors in Germany, I think I don't see any more that there is -- at least in my life, that there are not three sectors. You have the private banks, you have the corporate banks and you have the saving banks. That's the structure of the German banking. But within the sector, in particular, the cooperative bank and the savings sector, you will see consolidation. And in this regard, I really don't think that you can compare those banks to that what we have seen on the West Coast. The main difference, in my view, is the diversified deposit base and also how their asset side is structured, I do think there are differences. Now I'm not the expert, but I'm not nervous about it.

Thank you very much. Any other questions before I move on? Perfect. Thank you very much. Lady in the second row.

I have some question on the CIB. What is your strategy on the leverage finance business? Where do you see the pipeline in this business? It seems to me that they are able to issue more since the beginning of the year and more ready on the CIB. In which business are you investing? And are you planning to enter additional subsegment in the CIB?

So leverage finance, look, first of all, we have been in that business since 25 years and even longer, but in particular, since the integration of Bankers Trust Leverage Finance is a key business and the core business of Deutsche Bank. We like the business, and most important, I think we can operate the business because the risk management discipline from the first line of defense to the second line of defense is simply there at Deutsche Bank. It's a strength. Now when it comes to how we see the business currently, we have clearly reduced our risk appetite. By the way, we did this already in the first quarter of 2022 because we could see that the market is coming into a more complex situation. So we took down risks quite significantly, and we are running far lower pipeline risks than, so to say, ever before, at least during my 5 years. And for the time being, to be honest, we keep these tight standards because I think also, in that market, if I look at the credit spreads, if I look at the overall interest and also preparedness of going into the market, I rather say tight and stringent and that paid off. So I'm very happy actually with the way we managed that business over the last 9 months. I do think that over time, it will come back, but it's not the time now to jump back into this. To be honest, I even think that credit spreads will widen throughout the years, in particular, also in that business. And therefore, I think I'm very happy with the pipeline we have; with the derisking, which we've seen the best decision for us was actually to reduce the appetite last year in the first quarter, we went well with that. With regard to other business, we want to go in. I told you the IB is critical to Deutsche Bank, the Investment Bank. I'm happy with the kind of three business. The Investment Bank of Deutsche Bank, as you all know, is consisting of three sub business, the trading business, the financing business and the O&A. I do believe that we have pockets, as I just said, in the FIC business, for instance, Mexico, emerging markets where we can slightly grow. Otherwise, it's a consolidation with the gain market shares. And then we are looking into the one or the other opportunity we have also in the O&A business to do more. I think that business will come back. But sometimes, it is also good to consolidate after you have seen such a rise and to make sure you have everything under control. So I'm happy with that where we are in.

Gosh, we've got two more. So we've got one in the fifth -- sorry, one in the fourth row and another one at the back. Should we start at the back? Okay. Let's start at the back and we'll come back.

I was wondering about M&A. In the press, there were statements that you looked at some assets of other banks. And I was just wondering, beyond Asset Management where you've made it clear that you'd look to expand, what would be other parts that you would look at?

Well, with all respect to the press, but there is a lot in the press, which is not always true. And therefore, look, for the last 4 years, since -- or 5 years, since I've taken over, my key task was to repair Deutsche Bank from the inner. The last thing, what you need then is M&A because we have lots to do. We have done a lot. But as I just said, there is still lots to do. We want to take out another EUR 2 billion and more of cost. I know where to grow in the Corporate Bank, in the Private Bank. I have pockets of growth in the Investment Bank. And I have an Asset Management, which I think is well positioned, but where, obviously, we can also, in these volatile markets, we, first of all, have to do our homework. But in case there are add-on possibilities in one of the other business, in particular in one or the other stable business, look, we are observing the market, but there is no -- there is, for the time being, no active strategy in this regard. We focus on ourselves. We can see from the feedback of the client, in particular, also after we really repaired ourselves, we got the rating upgrades, that there is so much incoming client business that we want to make sure that we do that in the best ever way. That is focus, number one. Everything else is not on the priority.

Thank you very much. I think that fourth row, please.

[ Tim Wever ], [indiscernible] Management. I mean you mentioned in the very beginning, the repair of Deutsche Bank and that currently, you see a flight to quality and that you also see inflows. I think also other managers have mentioned, deposit inflows. Can you say that it is mainly coming from the U.S. or also from other geographies?

It's fortunately -- the restructuring and transformation of Deutsche Bank, as you just said, was a global transformation, a global restructuring, and therefore, it is not in a particular reason. We are winning and gaining market share actually across the globe. Of course, it is always potentially a little bit more visible in those markets where you are even more active. But also if I look at our business in Asia, actually, we are gaining. We are doing more, and we can see incremental business. So it is clearly across the globe. And therefore, again, it's a testament to the overall transformation of Deutsche Bank.

Thank you. I think I couldn't kind of let you go without the capital question. Because of course, in the fourth quarter call, we've kind of focused a lot on the capital, on the capital distribution, on the potential for kind of regulatory inflation. What's your outlook today?

Well, first of all, you saw with your question that this is potentially the key driver of the share price. Look, we always said that capital distribution and by the way, and not only by the way, but in particular, also share buybacks are absolutely part of our key instruments, which we want to maintain, which we want to do. We also said at the beginning of the year that, a, we want to be a little bit conservative and cautious and see where the year is going. To be honest, if I look at the last 3 or 4 days, I think it is always good to stay on the conservative side. It actually pays off for us now. But if I look at the jump-off point from a capital ratio, if I look at the overall development and the momentum in the business, if I think about my potential capital ratio at the end of the first quarter, then I remain optimistic, and I remain confident that we will also do share buybacks in the remainder of the year 2023. I also told you that there is an outstanding issue on our model review side, which we will do and which we will manage. But all that with the better jump off, with the momentum I see, and then I'm very optimistic that we can talk about debt buybacks and we'll do debt buybacks in the second half of this year and obviously with the prior communication. But it always needs careful and cautious management. That's, I think, what James and I have done over the last 4 or 5 years. But the optimistic language is absolutely still there and confirmed. Most importantly, again, we stand to the EUR 8 billion of distributions until 2025. That is key. And if you see that we have been quite ambitious, obviously, we are always reviewing also where we can do potentially even more, and that is our steady job at Deutsche Bank.

Perfect. Thank you very much. Because I think that on that note, I'd like to thank you for spending time with us, and thank you very much for being here.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Thank you.