Deutsche EuroShop AG (DEQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. I'm Franzi, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the preliminary results full year of Deutsche EuroShop. Business information transparency is very important for Deutsche EuroShop. For this reason, this conference will be recorded and shared on the Internet. [Operator Instructions]. It's my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Patrick Kiss. Patrick, please go ahead.

Thank you, Franzi, and good morning from the team of Deutsche EuroShop in Hamburg. Thank you for attending the presentation of our preliminary results for 2022, including an update on the situation in our centers, and on the development of Deutsche EuroShop Group. My name is Patrick Kiss. I'm Head of Investor Relations at Deutsche EuroShop and have been in this position for almost 20 years. Unfortunately, our new Board member, Hans-Peter Kneip is too ailing to make this call with you today. His voice left him step-by-step yesterday. After the last 3 years, you don't even remember that there are also normal strong colds. In this way, get well soon, Hans-Peter. Let's start with our business activities. For an executive summary of 2022, please see Slides 2 and 3. After 2 years overshadowed by the pandemic, 2022 was impacted to a much lesser extent. It was a kind of transition year on the way to a new normal operationally as well as in terms of how we deal with COVID-19. An overall collection rate of 99% for '22 and EPRA occupancy rate of 94.3% show how solid our portfolio is. This is also reflected in the strong cash position we still have and the low LTV of 30.3%. Later, we will have a closer look on the financials. 2022, as just mentioned, was a year of transition, and this because of the expiring pandemic restrictions and also the acquisition of Deutsche EuroShop by Oaktree and CURA and the management change we had. Following the capital increase we completed at the beginning of this year, the 2 partners, Oaktree and CURA now hold 74% of our shares. We have prepared some details on the capital increase on the Slides 4 to 6. As you know, we used the proceeds to acquire additional stakes in 6 centers of our portfolio. The streamlining of the portfolio structure helps us to further strengthen our financial profile as well as our ability to distribute dividends. The total purchase price of the additional shares in the 6 centers was approximately EUR 303.3 million. What happened and happens in our shopping centers? On Slide 7, we have a look on our footfall. After a difficult start into 2022 with various corona-related restrictions, the footfall numbers have improved sustainably until summer last year. At the end of July, we were able to reach a level of 89% of the comparable pre-pandemic period in 2019. This means people are enjoying the regained shopping freedom and a certain normality. They are returning to the city centers, the shopping malls and into the shops. And this, so far, despite a certain reluctance of consumers in view of rising prices and the war in the Ukraine. Particularly, in the second half of the year, we have seen that there is a certain caution. In November and December, we reached around 80% of pre-COVID levels. And in January, we started with more or less 90% compared to January 2019. Coming to the retail turnover on Slide 8. Looking at our portfolio, tenant turnover is nearly back at the levels of 2019. In Germany, it's only slightly lower at 93.2%. Our overall tenant sales averaged approximately 95% of 2019 levels in the last quarter of 2022. These figures also make us optimistic even if inflation contributed to this development. However, in comparison with the footfall, these figures also mean that the single shopping basket per visitor has become bigger. This is another example of how pandemic may have changed our habits. People come less often but spend more money per visit. It is worth mentioning that people are more afraid for their own income perspective since the beginning of the war in the Ukraine than they were at the peak of the pandemic. In addition, the propensity to buy is at a record low and rising prices, especially for energy have less room -- leave less room for consumption. On Slide 9, you can see our collection ratio since the beginning of the pandemic, which initially followed the pattern of the consumer footfall and is strongly correlating with the lockdown periods. The collection ratio represents the ratio of received to invoice to rents, service charges and marketing contributions after corona-related concessions. For 2021, the number was 95% and is now close to normality. In 2022, the collection ratio was at 99%, with only very limited rent concessions granted resulting from some cleanup for 2021. On Slide 10, you will see that the weighted maturity of our rental contracts is now at 5.0 years after 5.3 years, 1 year before. That reflects the slightly shorter lease terms we have been agreeing to for a couple of years. The occupancy rate was stable at 94.3%. On Slide 11, you will find our top 10 tenants with some minor changes. Peek & Cloppenburg or P&C here is made up of the north and south parts of the company combined. The majority of the contracts relate in our portfolio to Peek & Cloppenburg Düsseldorf, which was recently in the headlines because of its protective shield proceedings to restructure the company. Our partners from ECE are in permanent exchange here for this reason. Our sector mix on Slide 12 shows that fashion is still the focus of our malls. And that's a good thing because visitors have proven to value our focused tenant mix here. This is also true in times of online retailing. For the first time, we have shown in this tenant mix leisure and entertainment separately, a tenant group that is becoming more and more important for our portfolio and for the retail world. So far, the update on the situation in our centers. I will now come to the financial results of 2022. We will start with the valuation of our shopping centers on Slide 13. The valuation of the shopping centers were again negative in a still tense market environment. The significant rise in interest rates in the reporting year had a negative impact on the valuation. Including investment cost, the valuation result before taxes was minus EUR 106.3 million as of the end of 2022. This corresponds to an average decrease of 3% after 1.5% in 2021. The increased net initial yield for our portfolio now stands at 6.01%. The sensitivity of the valuation results to changes of the main value drivers is provided in the table in the lower part of this slide on the right side. I will now come to the revenues on Slide 14. These came out slightly higher at EUR 212.8 million after EUR 211.8 million in 2021. In contrast to the previous year, which was significantly affected by shop closures due to the pandemic in the first weeks and months of 2021. All our tenants fortunately were allowed to open their shops for the full year of 2022. The continuing effects of the corona pandemic, such as defaults of tenants and payment difficulties, lower turnover rents as well as longer reletting periods and higher vacancy rates mean that revenues are still below the pre-pandemic level. Rental concessions are mainly reflected in the item, allowance and write-off of receivables of the previous year. Therefore, revenues are only slightly higher than in the previous year despite the absence of the closure phases. On Page 15, we show you the development of our EBIT, which showed a minimal change to now EUR 152.4 million. As already mentioned, the major financial effect resulting from the pandemic was reflected in the allowances for rent receivables. These allowances were made in relation to realized and/or expected losses of rents in connection with tenant support measures, for example, rent concessions were in relation to the factor, respectively likely insolvency. In 2022, these allowances came down to EUR 8.1 million compared to EUR 25.1 million in 2021. These effects were compensated by other operating expenses of EUR 20.5 million. These costs are caused by consulting expenses in the context of the takeover bid, the preparation of the acquisition of further stakes in 6 shopping centers at the beginning of 2023 in connection with the capital increase as well as the severance payments to former members of our Executive Board. I now turn to Page 16 and to the financial result. It improved by EUR 4.7 million or 17.3%. Interest savings of EUR 3.1 million due to favorable refinance -- refinancings for our Billstedt-Center Hamburg, our City-Galerie Wolfsburg and our Altmarkt-Galerie Dresden and an increase at equity operating profit of plus EUR 3.9 million had a positive impact on the financial result. The minority profit share was EUR 2.5 million higher than in 2021. On Slide 17, you see the EBT adjusted for the valuation increased from EUR 125.6 million to EUR 130.2 million, which is a plus of 3.7% due to the high operating result of standing assets, a plus of EUR 8.9 million. Another positive impact came from interest savings. These amounted to EUR 3.1 million. The result was reduced by costs concerning the takeover of EUR 7.4 million. Let us look at the operating profits, the EPRA earnings on Page 18. The EPRA earnings improved by EUR 7.6 million to now EUR 129.6 million, an increase of 6.3%. On a per share basis, the EPRA earnings increased from EUR 1.97 to EUR 2.10. Now come to the consolidated result of the group on Slide 19. The consolidated profit decreased from EUR 59.9 million to EUR 21.4 million. The main impact for the change came from a higher result of the standing assets on the one side, a plus of EUR 8.6 million. But on the other side, the valuation result of minus EUR 41.7 million and changes due to other deferred taxes of minus EUR 5.4 million. Correspondingly, the EPS decreased by 64% from EUR 0.97 to EUR 0.35 in 2022. Please follow me now to Page 20 and to the development of the FFO, which excludes the valuation results. The FFO increased from EUR 122.3 million to now EUR 130.1 million or on a per share basis from EUR 1.98 to EUR 2.11. The FFO calculation, we excluded the one-off expenses in connection with the takeover offer, an amount of EUR 5 million. And now coming to the balance sheet on Page 21, where you will only see small changes compared to the figures of the previous year. Our total assets amount to EUR 4.2 billion. This is just a change of EUR 70.7 million compared with the reporting date end of 2021. Our consolidated liquidity as of December 31, 2022 stands at EUR 335 million that is plus of EUR 6.1 million in 12 months. Total equity, including minorities, decreased by EUR 34.4 million as at the end of 2022, current and noncurrent financial liabilities stood at EUR 1.48 billion, which was EUR 22.9 million lower than at the end of 2021, influenced by scheduled redemptions. Noncurrent deferred tax liabilities increased by EUR 1.4 million to EUR 334.4 million. Our equity ratio increased slightly and now stands at a solid 55.7%. And the consolidated LTV now stands at a low 30.3%. The EPRA LTV calculated proportionally according to the group share in all assets, so to say, on a look-through basis stands at 33.1%, a continued very low level. While earnings and profits are still below pre-corona levels, our balance sheet today is even stronger than it was before corona. Having a look on Slide 22, we show the EPRA NTA per share, which slightly decreased from EUR 38.43 to EUR 37.81 due to the lower valuation of the portfolio. The discount of yesterday's share price to the EPRA NTA was 49%. On the Page 23, we gave you some information on our debt. There are no expiring loans this nor next year. Currently, our consolidated debt bears an average interest rate of 2.43%. The weighted maturity of our loan portfolio now stands at 6.8 years. Coming to some news on our portfolio on Slides 24 and 25. As you know, we published new investment plans for the Main-Taunus-Zentrum, abbreviation is MTZ, one of our large -- one of the largest and highest turnover shopping centers in Germany and among the jewels in our portfolio. The new highlight is to be added to the MTZ, given it a new lively and urban center with a high-quality varied restaurants and food offering. Five new freestanding restaurant buildings are to be built until 2024, some with roof terraces, some with outdoor terraces, attractive landscaped exterior areas and sophisticated architecture. The new food garden will be built on an area of around 7,000 square meters in the heart of the shopping center in place of a former department store building. In the meantime, numerous food trucks around the construction side provide a varied offer, which is very welcomed by the visitors. And the planned space for rents is attracting a strong response from restaurant operators from the region as well as from national chains. The first rental agreements are currently being signed. And other positive things are also happening at the Rhein-Neckar-Zentrum. Please see for this Slide 26. No other center in our portfolio is currently seeing more retailtainment. We have been very successful in reletting the former do-it-yourself store. A laser tag arena, a trampoline park and a successful cycling concept will open here in 2024. Directly opposite to these, the stand-alone L'Osteria Restaurant is currently under construction. Already opened and only a few meters away is the Indoor Skydiving Center, which has started very promisingly. All of these tenants will positively benefit from each other and gives the entire center a further boost. On Slide 27, we briefly take you to the Baltic Sea, various refurbishments were successfully carried out at Galeria Baltycka as part of the At-your-Service and Mall Beautification programs. We believe such and similar investments are crucial for the future of our shopping centers and the market segment in general. Finally, I would like to come to Slide 28 and look at financing activities and transaction markets. Financing first. As already mentioned in our last call with our former Executive Board member, Olaf Borkers, we have agreed with banks on EUR 107.4 million loan with a 10-year maturity and a fixed interest rate of 2.45% to refinance the loan for our Altmarkt-Galerie Dresden that became due end of March 2022. We have concluded all our upcoming refinancings for 2022. This included a group level loan of EUR 52 million as well as financing for the City-Point Kassel of EUR 55 million. A credit tranche of EUR 10 million for the -- sorry, for the Allee-Center Hamm was repaid at the end of September. A EUR 221 million follow-up loan for the next 10 years with a new interest rate of 3.56% -- previously, the interest rate was 2.99%, has been agreed in September for our Main-Taunus-Zentrum. EUR 209 million of these EUR 221 million were used to repay the loan that matured in January 2023, 2 months ago. While the additional EUR 12 million will be used to help finance plans and just mentioned food garden at Main-Taunus-Zentrum. Next loans will only be due in September 2025 and major financings only from 2026 onwards. In the last month, we have seen some interesting shopping center transactions in Germany again. A mall in Berlin was sold and is now being restructured. A further shopping center has been sold in Munich. In the west of Germany, a bigger shopping center is to be put on the market. This shows the strength of prime shopping centers and strongly supports Deutsche EuroShop's strategy and valuation. Let's come to the financial outlook on Slide 29. We expect a nearly unchanged FFO between EUR 2 to EUR 2.10 per share for the full year. In total amounts, we expect Funds From Operations of EUR 153 million to EUR 160 million, a potential plus of approximately 18% and more. This is the result of the acquisition of the additional stakes in 6 of our shopping centers. 2023 will be the first full year entirely without COVID-related restrictions for our tenants and shopping center visitors. And we expect, despite the not only positive external circumstances, a further improvement of our overall business. We will continue to invest in the future competitiveness of our shopping centers in 2023. Around EUR 79 million are planned to be invested in the running year. In addition, we are currently evaluating the further optimization and diversification of our financing structure. And finally, a few words about the dividends. Because of the uncertainties regarding the scope and duration of the pandemic, Deutsche EuroShop had decided to cumulate significant liquidity reserves. Due to the declining pandemic and the stabilization of the operating business, the company's liquidity position is now probably to be reduced to a normal level again. For the fiscal year 2022, the Executive Board will develop a dividend proposal in coordination with the Supervisory Board, which will be communicated as part of the publication of the annual report with the final and audited results for 2022 on April 27 next month. Ladies and gentlemen, we remain optimistic as before, even so there is still some way ahead for us. Our company is well prepared and we would be more than happy to have you join us on this journey. So far my presentation, thank you for listening. I'm now happy to take your questions. Franzi, please take over.

[Operator Instructions]. And we have the first question from Andre Remke from Baader Bank.

A couple of questions from my side. First on the rent development. On the CPI-linked rent increases, in particular, is it possible to say what the contribution was last year? And to what extent you were able to pass it to tenants? And what are your expectations for this year? This is the first question.

Honestly, no. We can't give you the number today. This is probably able -- we will be able end of next month with the final results to give you better split of these numbers. But in general, this is, of course, a position which is to be negotiated with the tenants always. And one of the potential options we have in the negotiations. For some tenants, we are able to put this through into the contracts. And for others, it's only part of -- the CPI development is only part of the full story, that means if you speak about an average inflation rate of 7.9% or around this, then maybe 4%, 5% in some contracts is the result, but in general, this is a situation which now is a little bit -- becoming a little bit easier because the worst is over and already signed in the past. So as you know, we have a framework of contracts with our partner, ECE, and we only signed contracts which are differing from this framework. And these contracts we have to sign here at Deutsche EuroShop personally are becoming less. That means the situation becomes more relaxed and there's not so much difference to the normal framework. So that's another positive development. But obviously, the worse is behind us.

Perfect. And the second question refers to the EUR 79 million to be invested this year into your centers. Is it all about the 3 mentioned centers? So Main-Taunus, Rhein-Neckar and Gdansk? And are you able to split this sum up the EUR 80 million to the 3 centers?

And it's probably not only the 3 centers because when we had the high levels of the corona pandemic, we postponed our planned programs, which were running from 2018 onwards, and we proposed them to the after corona period, which is now in place. And therefore, we have to regain or restart these investments. So it's mainly the finalization in some of the centers, which are not finalized yet of the At-your-Service and Mall Beautification programs. So if you remember, before Corona, we speak of -- spoke of investments of EUR 25 million to EUR 30 million per year for the whole portfolio. And now restarting after 3 years of the pause with these programs, it's a little bit more than originally planned, so nearly 2.5 fold of the former amount which was planned. So it's nothing additional. In fact, it's more that we will try to come up to speed again under the finalization of these programs.

Okay. Perfect. Understood. Brings me to the next question is, let's say, EUR 80 million. Is -- or other way around, is your dividend policy. You mentioned to reduce the cash position to a more normal level. I remember that in the past, you had between EUR 100 million, EUR 150 million of cash each year. Today, EUR 350 million or so. If we would say you, for dividend payments, you come down from EUR 350 million to EUR 150 million, but you have to include the EUR 80 million investment or is it the right thinking? Or what do you see as a normal level? This is the base question.

That is exactly the point that we always have to keep in mind that the liquidity we show in the group is also already reserved for these kind of programs and investments. And therefore, you are correct with the assumption what we said in the last years that we think of EUR 100 million plus as probably normal new liquidity, we want to keep in the group to be prepared and protected against developments like we saw 3 years ago with the pandemic that we are still independent from any banking lending policies or problems or whatever. That was always the case with Deutsche EuroShop and probably will last also in the future. So EUR 100 million plus is probably the normal liquidity level we try to keep in the group, including the planned investments we keep in mind.

Okay. And the -- after the capital increase and the transaction and buying the shareholdings, is the cash level at year-end, EUR 335 million, is this still your accounts? Or has it changed due to the cap hike in the transaction i.e., on the pro forma level or how you call it.

We have probably -- I'm not sure yet, honestly, but probably the cash position or the liquidity position increased a little bit because we also -- not was all done by contribution in kind, but we also got some proceeds from the capital increase in cash.

The next question comes from Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF.

3 questions from my side, please. The first question is, you said in the outlook that some transactions were concluded in Germany. Could you imagine to start acquisitions at Deutsche EuroShop, backed by your major shareholder if something interesting appears?

We have a huge potential of imaginary visions. No, it's the way it always was. We are an opportunistic player. We have a look on every offer or opportunity and calculate if it makes sense. If the formal factors of the offered shopping centers are fitting with our strategy that means things like size, layout, tenant mix, maturity of the lease terms, competition in the area and so on. So the normal factors we check. And therefore, we haven't changed anything in this approach to look at every opportunity which arise. Currently, we are not investigating more precise investment possibility, but it's still the case that we get the offers, and we sometimes visit shopping centers and have a closer look if this makes sense for our portfolio. And this probably won't change also in the future. But at the moment, there is no project on the table that we are going for.

Okay. Okay. Then also a bit in that regard. If the plan to optimize leverage at Deutsche EuroShop is still on the table, i.e., to increase leverage? Or is that not more existing due to interest rate environment?

Yes. We have shown the general idea in the text we published around the takeover bid and we have published our ideas in the prospectus of the capital increase, and this hasn't changed. And of course, the market conditions not really improved for these things, but as we are always a long-term approach company, this is on the table still and won't change. Why should the company say, "no, we don't want to optimize our leverage anymore." That will still be the case also in the future.

Okay. Okay. Last question -- maybe a bit kind of general. You also said -- you already said some words on the tenants. How -- what is your perception of the mood of the tenants? I mean we had these problems at Peek & Cloppenburg. There is inflation environment, potentially depressing clients. Do you have a kind of idea on how they feel?

Yes, as I mentioned, and you already recognized, it's becoming better, obviously, for us. At least our look on the tenants development. So the hardest seems to be over, but you never know. And yes, we are flexible or have to be flexible and have to find new individual solutions with every tenant we negotiate with. For example, shorter lease terms, that's probably the clearest, most obvious effect of the corona pandemic that nowadays, the 10 years is not anymore the standard maturity for lease terms. It's more option model of 5 plus 5 and so on years like we always have seen in France, for example. So shorter lease terms, conditions with, for example, minimum thresholds that cause them additional options, thresholds in terms of turnover for the tenants. If he doesn't reach after 5 years, a certain level of turnover, he has the option to get out of the contract, for example, if the level has reached an automatic renewal of the contract. These are new forms of contracts where we try to find a solution with our tenants to help them in a partnership through these uncertain times. But in general, again, worst seems to be over. Of course, we see some problems for us more or less unexpected because we haven't seen these Peek & Cloppenburg especially not with the Düsseldorf, the south part of the group coming. Karstadt -- Galeria Kaufhof Karstadt is for us minor issue. We have them and they will stay in the Main-Taunus-Zentrum and invest again. Karstadt and Main-Taunus, you know, I spoke about the situation there. And in the Rhein-Neckar-Zentrum for example, we have the Galeria only as neighbor included in the shopping center. But of course, this is an effect we have to keep in mind that we probably will lose 1 month of rent from the Peek & Cloppenburg tenant, but they still operate and plan to restructure and plan to continue there -- that business, of course.

There are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Patrick for closing comments.

Yes. Thank you very much to all of you. I wish you a good start into the spring. I hope to see you soon on conferences or road shows or maybe you visit us or one of our shopping center. All the best to you, and thank you for listening. Goodbye, and have a good rest of the week.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day.