Deutsche Post AG (DHL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

It's with a warm welcome from Frankfurt that I'm glad to have so many guests here in the room for the launch of the DHL Group Strategy 2030. It's that time of the decade again. We have this very useful tradition of 5-year strategy cycles and today is the day that we unveil the 2030 strategy. As announced, we have today presenting, the Group CEO Tobias Meyer and the Group CFO, Melanie Kreis. Both will take you through the material that I take it you have in front of you. [Operator Instructions]. And without any further ado, let's dive into Strategy 2030. Tobias the stage is yours.

And good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us here in person and thanks for joining us online. Thanks for your interest in our company and what we are set out to do in the coming years. I want to start with a bit of a look back because some of our history is quite relevant also for what we intend to do going forward. Many of you are closely familiar with that, so I keep it brief. You obviously know that we were once carved out of the German ministry, were only focused around Germany and then acquired quite a number of companies in a bit of a wild phase of storming. Afterwards, it took us maybe longer than expected to bring that portfolio into shape to make the DHL side of the house performing, also when it comes to profitability and become less dependent on our traditional business here in Germany. And with the pandemic, we obviously saw, as the entire industry did, a significant acceleration of our growth at that time. But even after the normalization, I think we can clearly say that we are more profitable and produce more cash flow than we ever have before the pandemic. So we also continue to achieve structural improvements. We were focused in the last strategic cycle and many of those elements will stay with us on what we call the 3 bottom lines, being the employer of choice to our employees which we determined through internal measures, our employee opinion survey but also and increasingly so with external agencies who also query our employees but also look at some aspects of our working conditions. And on both dimensions, we are clearly leading in our industry and some of our divisions, even leading against all larger companies in a given country. Provider of choice, obviously, very important to also keep and gain customers. We have improved in areas where we were lacking 5 years ago, especially in Global Forwarding but also in Supply Chain, significant increases and also in our Post & Parcel Germany business. Maybe sometimes opposite to the commentary in some newspapers, our customers, the consumer side as well as the business customers are much more satisfied with our service than they were 4 years ago. What's mentioned here is the relative increase in our Net Promoter Score, which, for instance, for the parcel business in Germany went from 34 to 69. Investment of choice, I already mentioned, we have grown some with industry tailwind in the last years but have grown also profitability ahead of revenue and cash flow ahead of EBIT. We recognized, obviously, that this is important to our investor base to make sure we also further work on profitability and the effective deployment of capital. And we're going to talk more about that later today. Sustainability, I think we can truly say we are a front-runner in that. We have been when it comes to the use of electric vehicles in pickup and delivery operations but increasingly so in other areas, trucking but also aviation, aviation in many ways being the most difficult moat to abate carbon emissions. We have been the largest user of sustainable aviation fuel, not only within the Express and air cargo industry but amongst all airlines globally. But still, we only had about 3.2% of our total burn being alternative fluids last year, so we need to continue to increase that. And it's obviously relevant that our customers also are part of the journey. We're going to talk about that as well. For us, it is important also to look beyond our immediate kind of boundaries of the company, what's going on more broadly in the world. We have done that. We had 4 trends that we said remain very relevant for the development of our business: One, global trade, I think, is still very much relevant but is also changing. We obviously recognize geopolitical tensions. We see trade barriers rising. To some extent, it is astonishing how robust trade is in light of those trade barriers, trade still growing with GDP or slightly ahead of GDP but not 2 - 2.5x of GDP as we have seen this for about a time period of 20 years. And it's also very clear that the trade patterns are changing. We see large trades that are either stagnant or even declining. But we see certain flows also growing very strongly and that has to do with China plus One, that has to do with the competitiveness of certain geographies, the consumption that comes up in others. Again, something that we're going to talk about very specifically how we want to participate in that growth. eCommerce stays relevant. It is now 28% of group revenue that is driven by e-commerce. So it is a theme that remains relevant and it's a big part of our business but there are certain things that we can do also in that area to accelerate our growth. Climate change, I already mentioned, it remains relevant for us to do our part but it's also very important that we sell that as a service to our customers. Digitalization was a specific focus in our last strategy cycle, it remains very relevant but we see it even more so important to embed it into the businesses to drive it out of the divisions. We have certain initiatives, particularly on AI that we continue to sponsor and govern centrally but it is really important that we deliver real and tangible value in the business. And I think our supply chain business is really leading in that regard. And also for some of the other divisions showing the way, especially when it comes to the application of robotics, which we're also going to talk about. The new trend which we regard relevant is evolving workforce. We are a labor-intensive industry. We employ around 600,000 people. And we see that we need to really stay attuned to that, to attract the right talent but also to make sure that people stay with us and that we requalify people, especially in markets where we see a shrinking workforce due to aging. So it's a specific focus and a new trend that we're going to monitor. So what does it mean? And where does it leave us as it relates to that next cycle? I think we can say we delivered on many of our promises and target as it relates to Strategy 2025 and the megatrends, some stay relevant but they change. But we also have to recognize, obviously, that we are not happy with our valuation and the share price and we need to ask ourselves what we can do about that. There are certain factors which might not be directly in our hands but there's a lot that we can do. And for us, this is mainly 3 things that we also want to structure today's presentation around. It is focused on accelerating growth. We need to truly deliver on GDP plus growth, which for us means ahead of 5% CAGR until 2030. We need to further increase profitability. In some of our divisions, there is the opportunity and obligation to further do structural improvements, particularly in Global Forwarding but also in Supply Chain and eCommerce. In Express, it will be more a cyclical recovery when more volume comes into the network that will return to mid-teen margins. And the last bit, which you will expect as our investors, is the wise investment of capital. I think we have developed in the last years a good track record on that, coming from some backlog and catch-up effect that we particularly had in Express, where we had a very high capital intensity for some years, which now normalizes. And it is obvious for us that we must achieve this growth in both the top line as well as EBIT with a reasonable deployment of capital to increase the return on invested capital from the base that we have now reached. So with that, that is going to structure our agenda today, starting with focus on accelerating growth. So how do we want to achieve that? A big part of that is -- needs to come, obviously, out of the existing businesses that we have with a strong focus on quality. That has shown us the way as it leads to the positive development of DHL Express, where we have consistently gained market share over the last 15 years. That is the DNA that we have in the company that we are the quality provider in the respective segment and we need to leverage that more, especially when it comes to Global Forwarding and Freight, where we do not have that consistent track record over a longer period of time, supply chain, where we have the track record now for some years but we need to accelerate on that. eCommerce, where we still have to cover certain gaps geographically and as it relates to the service offering. And then obviously, Post & Parcel Germany, where the growth in parcel is essential to also compensate for the structural decline in mail. So that, about 80%, I would say, of the growth needs to come out of the divisions. But then we have 5 cross-divisional initiatives on top of that, to complement what we do in the divisions and to further accelerate growth. Two of those are focused on relatively new and developing industries, one on e-commerce, where we have specific things that we keep, but also things that we add, geographical tailwinds, we're going to talk about and digital sales as the fifth more functional initiative. But first, to the divisions. So what you see here as description above the yellow line is by and large, what we have been doing and what we'll continue to do. So Express very much continued to focus on the top end of the market on quality. That is extremely important to achieve good returns in this business. If we would widen the Express model too much to gain volume, we see also with competitors that, that is not a good use of capital in this high-cost, high-capital game. So we're going to very much stick to the knittings of Express and be the quality provider for the top end. But there are some elements which we see below the line that we add, particularly to have a even more specific focus as it relates to the geographical elements, where there's tailwind in the market and we're going to talk about that very specifically, how we're going to do that. SMEs and GoGreen is additional growth elements that are particularly relevant for Express. For Global Forwarding and Freight, similarly, we have been on a path of standardization, leveraging the digitalization and the renewal of our IT systems that we have done there. But we need to continue to leverage the knowledge that we have to really broaden our customer base and we do that through the initiatives listed below. Some of that I'm going to talk about later. There are some others which are clearly specific to Global Forwarding and Freight, which is custom clearance, for instance, where we really see very good momentum already due to higher compliance requirements that our customers are seeing in different geographies and thereby, they use a different way to purchase customs clearance services and make this more a bundled by for a region or even globally. So that's an evolving business model that we have seen for many years in the U.S. that is now also being more established in other regions and is a significant opportunity for the colleagues at Global Forwarding. Supply Chain, very much a strategy that is a structural improvement of the operating model, stronger standardization and the use of technology. I think we are very well underway with that. I'm going to talk about that later as it relates to the effects robotics and automation has on that business. And you see below the accelerating elements that we're going to talk about more. eCommerce, very much obviously benefiting from the structural growth in e-commerce as an industry and more online shopping, which we believe we'll see at least for another decade. We need to harness this more as it relates to cross-border, out-of-home networks and returns where we have a relatively weak position today. So also very specific initiatives around that. And then Post & Parcel Germany, again, the ongoing transformation. In 10, 15 years, we're going to be a parcel company in the center of Europe, the largest European parcel market with a couple of letters. That's the journey we are on. And again, there are some specific opportunities how we can accelerate that growth in the parcel area. Overall, we're going to talk about this more with the colleagues in spring to have a Capital Markets Day, particularly on each of these divisions to be very specific how we translate this into action and what specific targets we set ourselves, some of which Melanie is going to talk about in her section. Now coming to the cross-divisional initiatives that we have started now and that we get going on. There was 2 relatively new industries, geographic tailwinds, e-commerce and digital sales as a functional initiative. We have quite a big amount of information on the following charts. This is also a thought for your reference. I'm not going to go through all of that in detail but just pick out a couple of highlights. And then also talk about where we see ourselves on the journey when it comes to low-carbon, no-carbon logistic services, those services that we sell under the brand of GoGreen Plus. So coming to Life Science and Healthcare and I think many of you are familiar with the macro story of this sector, aging population, technological progress leading to new types of treatment and those types of treatment requiring in parts, substantially different logistic setups. We have conventional pharma, consumer health and medical devices where we are traditionally strong. But we recognize that we need to double down, particularly in the area of advanced pharma, cell and gene therapies, clinical trials. All of that, we have a solid footprint in, overall more than EUR 5 billion revenue in this sector. We have capabilities that we have also proven during the pandemic. We were the largest logistics provider when it came to the distribution of vaccines. But there is a substantial opportunity that will only come to us if we continue to invest and further build-out our capabilities and we have some very specific ideas around that. The clear target is we want to double revenue in this very profitable area and then reach in excess of EUR 10 billion in aggregate by 2030. So what are the 3 things that we are mainly focused on, which is the temperature-controlled networks. We increasingly see that we also have transport requirements across temperature ranges. So not a deep frozen or moderately frozen temperature range or ambient temperature that we really have to deliver at 1 clinic, at 1 stop across different temperature ranges and that is requirement that is evolving. So we need to react to that and offer that capability. We have end-to-end integrated solution where we have a strong element in Express and carry a lot of those shipments but we need to make sure that it ties at the ends very well to the requirements of our customers, especially when it comes to clinical trials but also biopharma logistics. We have some additional work to do in countries to stronger participate in that. And then the first and last mile in particular, delivery to hospital, delivery to clinics. There are some specialty requirements, which we also want to strengthen, want to broaden from a geographic point of view, to make sure we participate in that growth. We do this differently now in a sense that we have a team that will be led by Oscar de Bok next to his responsibility as CEO of Supply Chain because Supply Chain is very much at the epicenter of this development but he will coordinate across the divisions. We'll have incentives and mechanisms, particularly to enhance organic growth. We also will consider and have considered add-on, bolt-on acquisitions to acquire capabilities in certain geographies that we can scale well. But it is, for us, mainly buying capabilities, not buying scale, we will create value in scaling those capabilities. That's what we have communicated for our M&A focus, and we'll keep that. So that on Life Science and Healthcare, which brings us to New Energy, which for us is a bundle that starts on the generation of electricity by renewable means, so particularly wind and solar, where we see quite some profound shifts in the supply chain and industry landscape, more internationalization of supply chains, really new players internationalizing their manufacturing footprint and that obviously brings opportunities for us. So that's something that is changing and we need to accommodate that and grow with those players that will drive that market going forward. And we see that similarly on the battery side and EV side. So also there, a clear need for the industry to alter the logistic setup, which matures and needs to deliver new efficiency also for the manufacturers. So that's something that we are very much engaged with the leading companies in this space and see about EUR 3 billion in additional revenue opportunity going forward for 2030. Again, some very specific approach, very much focused on co-investing with leading players in that space, becoming their partners, leveraging them also as suppliers for our decarbonization journey because, obviously, especially on the vehicle side, we also have strong demand there and invest in those capabilities, handling, for instance, in the project business, windmill blades, dangerous goods as it relates to the different battery types, also the return flow of batteries, the repair flow is something that is very interesting for us. That's what we are focused on. And that initiative is going to be led by Tim Scharwath. Again, as an add-on to his responsibility as Global Forwarding and Freight with a cross-divisional team. For the geographic focus, that is a bit different. Here, our starting base is very solid. So the numbers that you see here, the current numbers in terms of our footprint, FTEs, warehouse space and aggregated revenue in excess of EUR 9 billion in those countries, which are now really benefiting from the rejiggling of supply chains from the China Plus One theme, which definitely also includes still trade and exports from China. We see strong growth there this year. But we also see this as a continuing momentum, not the traditional trades but in new trades that are really delivering very good growth and we want to remain at the center of that and really double down on this. There are 3 particular aspects to this, which is the diversification of supply chains. This is much talked about when it comes to tech companies, especially the China plus One is one theme but generally the rejiggling of supply chains in the tech industry and other industries, which makes global supply chains more complex, which is in some aspect good for us. We have the internationalization of players, particularly manufacturing companies coming out of Asia that set up manufacturing sites in other countries that leads to new flows of parts and components that are often sourced still from those home markets. And that is a moment in the development of a company that is extremely important for us. So we engage with very specific programs with those customers at that stage. And then for smaller companies that are in an earlier stage, we monitor seed investments, we want it through funding, to particularly help those companies that are successful in a given market to leverage their strength especially through e-commerce to sell to other markets overseas. So these are the 3 kind of layers that we monitor and where John Pearson together with the global commercial Board that he's chairing is going to have a specific focus to make sure we are part of those developments. When it comes to e-commerce, it is a very established theme for us, 28% of group revenue are driven by e-commerce and it has been growing considerably. You see here a 14% CAGR over a decade. So that has helped us, obviously, quite a lot in the recent years but we see this very much as a theme that remains relevant, e-commerce outgrowing GDP for at least another decade. And we need to make sure that we remain also at the center of this trend. We have now reached a state where we cover the entire value chain but we don't cover it consistently when it comes to geographies and the different types of buying because the needs that a small online shop has and how that online shop buys logistic services, much more as a bundle of fulfillment and transport, that's very different than a large platform would buy certain logistic services. So we have catered to that. We still have some gaps to fill in that matrix of customer needs and that is going to help us to accelerate our growth. Supply chain plays an important role there. Obviously, e-commerce as the division as well, where we have several geographies that we still want to add but also opportunity to grow and outgrow in some of the markets that we are present. Now lastly, here on the theme of low-carbon logistics and our GoGreen product. We remain committed to reduce, despite the growth, our absolute emissions in 2030 to below 29 million tonnes. So that is a target that we had before and remain committed to that. We have different levers along the different modes to achieve that. At the center of that, given about 2/3 of our emissions are aviation-related, is sustainable aviation fuel. And in that journey, we obviously need the customer to take a certain part and whilst it has been difficult for many years to do that, we really see very positive momentum in the last 14, 15 months. So we have substantially increased our recovery ratio when it comes to having customers pay and compensate us for the substantial spend we have on those decarbonization measures and we believe this journey will continue. We clearly see that the targets that our customers have set themselves in terms of their Scope 3 emissions is increasingly translating into budgets to actually have some money available to address that and that is actually being spent. It works a bit different than we thought on how this commercially is done because it's often a staggered purchase where you first buy the transportation service and then you add later the decarbonization element on top of it. So we still are learning on this journey but it's a very positive development. So that brings us to this picture of overall growth, strong organic growth driven by quality out of the divisions, complemented by 5 cross-divisional initiatives to accelerate that, brings us to our ambition to grow the top line by 50%, if you look at 2030 relative to 2023. So to get into the range of EUR 120 billion company with the respective growth drivers and ambitions that you see below and which Melanie is going to talk about in more detail in some minutes. The second lever, increased profitability. Digitalization plays a big role there and we only have very selective initiatives still centrally. We obviously govern cybersecurity centrally. We do this through the IT Board that I also personally chair. And I believe some of my colleagues are actually quite relieved that, that is a CEO responsibility, which screws up one or the other weekend but it's still a very important focus for us. We obviously recognize that this is the base of a reliable service and that many of our customers entrust us that we manage that well. So it remains a strong focus but also the architectural road maps of our divisions, where we're going to continue to have a divisional approach. We will have also different finance systems, for instance, between some of the divisions. We believe that's the better approach because it helps us to stay agile and flexible to keep that divisional approach and give the division's own opportunity to progress and will progress faster than if we would all do that centrally. The digital customer interaction is something that we need to have certain central aspects on because dhl.com is one interface that we jointly need to manage. We're going to talk about that. Also, process and automation is something that we drive in the divisions but we also have some cross divisional aspects, particularly also when it comes to AI and the robotics element is very strong in supply chain and supply chain is really showing the way. So that's the overall portfolio but mainly embedded in the business. So just some short examples, what that means in practice. You have the process automation, data analytics and AI side, where on the one hand side, we use software and technology that is provided by other vendors, especially when it comes to voice bots. But we also have in the area of customs clearance, the product classification where we really have a team that trains the model on our own data. And that's where we also invest time and effort and money on those applications that are specific to our industry and our business. We don't try to outcompete on stuff that other people do much better with much bigger budgets but we clearly see benefit in leading the way on those logistic-specific aspects like clearance and we see really good progress with that. Same is -- or in the middle is a bit the AI-powered customer relationship. So one element that we do is, for instance, enrichment of customer data and leads data through AI, again, something that is already at a point where it really scales and brings broader advantages. Automation & Robotics, we have many partnerships, one with Boston Dynamics on the stretch Robota. It is a very interesting device. I spent some time earlier in my career, in quite a frustrating way, with these unloading robots and it's very great to see now that we've reached a stage where it actually not only is fascinating from the engineer but also for the economics side of things. We are really at the stage where this brings a significant economic benefit and also much more flexibility in our business model because a lot of the traditional automation is very much fixed. And in contract logistics, there has always been a hindrance to really capture value because we either need to take a risk because the contract lengths are shorter than the depreciation time or we are typically not participating that much in the upside of that technology because the customer directly purchases the equipment or pays us along the depreciation lines. And with these robotics technology, we have much better flexibility to deploy from site A to site B and offer robotics as a service. So it's really a very positive development for the supply chain business model. Similarly, we see opportunity to apply this technology when it comes, for instance, to maintenance. We do this with the sorters of parcel hubs these days that we have IoT sensors and AI listening in and then doing proactive maintenance when it is required and that obviously saves effort and cost in this area. So just a couple of examples, there are obviously many more but just to give you a bit more concrete sense of what we are doing. Then second, we obviously have the need to drive structural improvements in a much broader way. We have direct cost management on the right side that you would expect from us. But also that continued automation and digitalization that I talked about and we really see that happening. So on the left side, also a couple of examples. In air freight, for instance, despite moderate growth, we have achieved that without adding employees and really seen very good quality paired with substantial productivity improvements. There is more to come on that side as we progress on global standardization and the rollout of additional adjacent technology. And we're also very much focused on indirect cost, including the cost of the corporate center. We are in logistics and the euro is hard to earn and this is why we need to be and remain frugal and stay very mindful, especially when it comes to indirect cost. This is also true for other spend, capital spend. We come, especially in Express, I mentioned this earlier, from a certain need to do catch-up on our fleet, for instance but we've also seen significant growth, obviously, and needed to invest in capacity. I think we have now proven that we have the ability to flex that and that if growth goes down, CapEx also goes down, here shown on the left side, as the ratio of CapEx to revenue. On the other hand, the capacity management, I think we have done that well. The Express colleagues have done that well but there are certain parts of the network, particularly the regional networks that are not so easy to flex and with an increase in utilization to average cycle we would also expect a significant uplift in profitability to return to mid-teen margins. What is also important, obviously, when it comes to efficiency, is certain structural elements. And the company has grown. I mentioned this in the beginning, out of a uniform entity in Germany. We have added about 870 entities abroad that are a bit like a ball of wool under the listed entity and the listed entity also houses the operations of P&P but also certain elements of the e-commerce division and we don't think this is a good way forward. We strongly believe that the management structure we now have with the 5 divisions is the right way to manage the business with a relatively lean corporate layer on top. And what we want to achieve now is to get rid of those overlaps that we have in the legal structure. So we have many countries where we have a legal structure that houses the management team of Global Forwarding, of Freight, of eCommerce, partially also of Express. And particularly, we have many interim holding layers that cut across divisions. And again, with the decision to also have different IT systems and finance, this is just not the right way going forward. It hinders our flexibilities. It makes the introduction of IT systems much more complex than that is required. So for the reduction of complexity but also to enhance the divisional flexibility, we want to align the legal structure to the management structure, have a holding entity for each of the divisions and all subsidiaries that are related to that underneath that holding. So with that, I will turn it over to Melanie to talk more about the third lever to optimize capital allocation.

Yes. Thank you very much Tobias and good morning to all of you here in Frankfurt and to all of you out there. Thank you very much for joining us today for the launch of our Strategy 2030. Yes, Tobias has already covered 2 areas where we want to make further progress in the next strategic horizon, accelerate growth on the top line, of course, in a profitable way and increase profitability. Let me now talk about the third important area, optimized capital allocation. And I want to start with a topic which has been very relevant for us in the last strategic horizon, cash generation, which was obviously 10 years ago, one of our weak spots. We're proud that we have come a long way and that you can also really feel it in the organization. People now think about cash, our country managers are able to read a cash flow statement. So we have come a long way here. The intention is naturally to keep it that way. So I think my very simple message with regard to cash flow, it will remain a top priority for us. So now that we have a good cash generation, the next question is, of course, what do we do with the cash? And here, our finance policy comes in play. And that is a framework which we have already applied for the last years. And where, in essence, we want to stick to this very balanced approach. Let me just emphasize a couple of nuances on this slide. The first one is that when you look at the bottom, we are focused on a target rating. We are very comfortable with the range BBB+ to A-. We are currently obviously at the upper end based on the good financial performance of the last years. So I think we're very happy with the current positioning but that is the target range we are aiming for. So now the foundation and nothing has changed here is on the business growth side, the key focus will remain organic growth. And those numbers, which Tobias showed to you, the EUR 120 billion order of magnitude we want to achieve in top line by 2030, that will be predominantly driven by organic growth and we will keep investing into the business. And not surprisingly, we will keep investing particularly in those areas where we see above GDP growth opportunities, the topics Tobias outlined before. And we will do so with a stronger focus on return on employed capital. I'll come to that in a second. On the shareholder return side, the basis, the pillar 1 for us remains our regular dividend where we will stick to our 40% to 60% payout of net profit range. But again, it's the proven, reliable commitment to dividend continuity. So organic growth on the business side, regular dividend on the shareholder return side. And that's complemented by, on the business growth side, inorganic growth. I'll come to that in a second to tell you a little bit more about what we want to focus on there. And then on the shareholder return side, as you know, for the first time ever, we are in the middle of a multiyear share buyback program. We have now executed EUR 2.8 billion. By the end of the year, we will be around EUR 3 billion and clear commitment is that we will carry on in '25 with the remaining EUR 1 billion. So that's the overall finance policy. When we look at how well have we delivered against this finance policy over the last years, I think you can see that by and large, we've had quite a good balance, the gray bar is the CapEx and owned assets, about EUR 3 billion, EUR 3-point-something billion now. The regular dividend, EUR 2.2 billion. And then the share buyback is now about EUR 1 billion per annum and then the red, of course, more difficult to plan, the M&A part. So when we talk about 1,2,3, CapEx, dividend, share buyback and M&A, let me start by the CapEx piece. And Tobias already showed you the development for our Express CapEx as a percentage of revenue. We are showing here on the left, the group CapEx as a percentage of revenue. And yes, we had this catch-up period, particularly with the 777 buying, which I think many of you here in the room and on the virtual audience still vividly remember that took us to 6% CapEx as a percentage of revenue in the peak year 2019. We have now normalized. So this backlog has been overcome. I think we are in a more steady phase. And as Tobias already pointed out, we have now also shown, when you look at the CapEx in the first half of this year, that we are able to flex and make adjustments to our CapEx spending, depending how dynamic the volume development is. In terms of capital intensity of the divisions, I think nothing surprising here. You all know that Express is our most capital-intense division and will remain so and forwarding is the most asset-light of the divisions. I'll also quickly cover how we're thinking about CapEx for the different divisions when I give you the divisional snapshots in the conclusion part. So message on CapEx is, I think we are now in a more normalized spending order of magnitude and we have and we do make adjustments depending on the dynamic of the business development. Yes. On the shareholder return side, on the top part of this page, you can see the development of our regular dividend which has grown or remained stable for the last 13 years. I think that's a very good trend. And as I already mentioned, particularly in times when you maybe on the net profit side, more developing in a flattish way, there is a very strong commitment to dividend continuity and you can see this very nice dividend yield of 5%. And on the share buyback, I already talked about the fact that by the end of this year, we will have gone through EUR 3 billion out of the EUR 4 billion and we are committed to then executing the remaining EUR 1 billion in 2025. That takes me to one area where you can have a long debate and I'm sure we will also get some questions in the Q&A, M&A. So I said and that is very clearly shared in the whole management. The priority will remain on organic growth but we will make use of inorganic opportunities if we find the right opportunity. We have very clear criteria. So we're not going to go for scale just for the benefit of scale. We really want to get skills which we are lacking, or we want to strengthen in certain geographies, in line with our growth priorities. So we really have to see the strategic reason to do an acquisition, that's the first criteria. The second one is, obviously, it should be accretive to earnings, i.e., it should come at the right price with a clear path of how this is going to have a positive impact to our numbers. And thirdly, it's very important for us that we have a clear understanding how we would integrate such an acquisition into our portfolio because we know from our own experience, Tobias talked about the lengthy where period we had to clean up the house after all these many acquisitions, you can get yourself into a mess and that's really not what we want to. So we clearly have to have a understanding how we want to integrate it. When we think about what divisions are the areas where we want to focus on, I guess it's not surprising that Post & Parcel Germany is not going to be the main focus nor will it be Express, obviously, due to the industry structure. So the 3 divisions, which are probably the most relevant with regard to M&A opportunities, our Supply Chain, eCommerce and Global Forwarding, Freight. And then again, in line with those strategic growth priorities, which Tobias has talked about. On the right side of the page, listing some of the acquisitions we have done over the last years, where you can see that it has been either about scaling capabilities. When you take the acquisition of Monta in the Netherlands, that's a company which gives us the opportunity to do e-commerce fulfillment also for small and midsized customers. They have a great software solution, which allows us to onboard small customers in a very easy way. That is something which we are now also scaling across geographies. And then in terms of geographic expansion, a very nice example is the acquisition of MNG Kargo in Turkey last year, obviously, one of the fast-growing and booming markets. We're also on the e-commerce side. There's a lot of dynamic and we are now benefiting from that. So that is finance policy and the 3 priorities from organic growth over shareholder returns to M&A. Let me now talk about an area where we want to put more emphasis on, compared to the past. We've come a long way in profitability. We're not there yet. We clearly acknowledge that. We want to increase profitability. We've come a long way in terms of cash generation and we want to maintain that. I think the additional dimension or the next maturity level, which we now want to focus on as an organization is how efficiently are we using the capital invested in our operations. So we want to focus much more now in terms of steering on return on invested capital. It is a KPI, which of course, we have reported and tracked internally but we want to make that a much more relevant piece now in budget discussions, in investment case decisions. So maybe go, as an analogy, a little bit through the same education, awareness and focus process, which we have had for free cash flow over the last strategic horizon. In terms of definition, well, you can do a PhD thesis about that topic. And depending on what definition we take, we can show you nice numbers or fantastic numbers. So for example, if we invested capital, we take out lease assets and goodwill, we get to 40% plus. I think you would challenge us on that definition. I think goodwill is obviously something we have to take into consideration. On the lease CapEx, you can already have a lively debate because that is obviously capital which is only going to be spent in the future. My puristic CFO position on that is, we have IFRS 16, we may not like it but the stuff is on the balance sheet. And so we decided that we will simply go for the toughest definition and include in the invested capital, these CapEx and goodwill that takes us to a number of 15.5% for the full year '23. And obviously, that cannot be our intention to stagnate at that level but over the time, we want to improve on it. And the last topic here that is still under discussion but I think it would be a logical evolution to then, over time, also include return on invested capital in management compensation. We're not there yet but it is something which we are actively thinking about. So that was a quick run through some elements on the finance side and that takes us almost to the conclusion but I still have some slides to cover. Because we want to give you a little bit of, yes, a framework, when you try to now put all this stuff into your models, how to think about the different divisions. And I have to do this forward-looking statement. We are dealing with the future. That means there is uncertainty and so on. But I want to talk a little bit about how we think about the different divisions on the way to 2030. Starting with DHL Express, obviously, the main income earner in the family. So in terms of market growth, our assumption is that we will see a TDI shipment growth of 4% to 5%. That is made up out of a lower B2B growth, probably more in line with GDP growth. And then a more dynamic B2C growth more in line with the 7%, which Tobias showed earlier for the e-com side. Our aspiration for Express, despite the great market share we already have, is that we want to grow above market. How do we want to do that? Well, I mean, first of all, based on the great service quality, this insanely customer-centric culture, which Express lives and breathes every day but naturally also benefiting, for example, from the great footprint we have in Southeast Asia, in Turkey, in Mexico, in those fast-growing economies with DHL Express. In terms of capital intensity, we have broken that out into 2 parts. We think that in terms of base load CapEx, we're talking about EUR 1 billion order of magnitude. And in a year where there is not a lot of volume dynamic that would probably be the number you should expect, i.e., in a year like '24, it should be around the EUR 1 billion something. If things get dynamic again and there is a lot of volume and we get into a build-out phase, we will have some CapEx on top but in a balanced way and of course, also linking back to what I earlier said with a clear focus on return on invested capital. In terms of EBIT, expectation is that we will see EBIT growth ahead of volume growth. You know that we are currently in the low double-digit EBIT margin range. We have seen under the pandemic that we can get to 17%, 18%. I think our expectation is that over the cycle, we will now return to mid-teen margins. That's the expectation. On the Global Forwarding side, market growth assumption is that for the core products, growth will be in line with global GDP for Air and Ocean. I think for forwarding, we have to acknowledge that we have not gained market share across the board over the last years. So now that we have also cleaned up the house in terms of getting the new IT system in place, significantly improving the quality, Tobias showed the NPS development. We feel very comfortably positioned, to now also for Global Forwarding grow above market, driven by the enhanced quality but also thanks to the clear sector and sales channel strategy Tim and his team are pursuing. In terms of CapEx, I can be brief that will remain the nonevent division, asset-light business model will remain asset-light business model, very simple. In terms of EBIT outlook, so obviously, we have seen under the pandemic extraordinary circumstances to what type of GP conversion rates we can get to. Our expectation remains that we will get over the cycle to the 35% and that should then translate into an EBIT margin of about 6% to 7%. Supply Chain, fantastic growth development over the last years, obviously, on track to join the billionaires club in 2024. This is an area where we see good growth for the market. Supply chains are getting more complex. Customers are looking for solutions and are also very interested in outsourcing solutions, really leveraging the strength of a strong logistics partner. And based on our already very strong footprint, combined with the focus on the growth areas we feel that particularly in supply chain, we have a very good opportunity to outgrow the market quite a bit. In terms of CapEx, supply chain has always had the CapEx linked to new customer implementations, we do expect that they could become a bit more capital intense. Obviously, if you do now more automation and robotics and the likes. That then depends also on the way how you finance it. The very important message from my side is, of course, if we do these things, we will see a corresponding return and also make sure that we earn the cost of capital in the pricing vis-a-vis the customer. In terms of EBIT outlook, very simple message, continuous EBIT growth, expected target EBIT margin range, 6% to 7% for DHL Supply Chain. Turning to the youngest family member, DHL eCommerce, which is, of course, also less homogeneous than the more mature DHL divisions. Strong market growth potential on the e-comm side varies actually a little bit between domestic markets and cross-border but overall, a very good and healthy growth opportunity for us, where, again, our aspiration is to grow above market. We will keep investing into that division. So we have a range of between EUR 300 million to EUR 500 million. That's quite a bit for a business like when you look at the revenue and EBIT but of course, that is really for us, investment into future growth. We will see the impact of the continued growth. We are seeing it this year in the depreciation line. We want to keep it at a very healthy profit level. So for this year, next year, 4% to 5% and then gradually growing to above 5% in the time zone until 2030. That's for the -- for DHL divisions. Now turning to Post & Parcel Germany. Well, I think you all know that this division is in the middle of a transformation and that transformation will continue throughout this strategic planning horizon. Tobias already talked about it. There is a clear future vision when we are pretty much done with the mail volume decline or it's outweighed really by the scale of the Parcel business. This will be predominantly e-com player, yes, market-leading e-com player in the largest European market. So I think there is a good future perspective we now have for the next years to manage through this transformation. Our expectation is that this division will earn what they have to spend. In order to get there, we have to get EBIT back to above EUR 1 billion. The new postal law has created the framework for that. We have now filed an application for the price increase in '25 under the new postal law. We expect feedback from the regulator over the next couple of days. But the vision for P&P is clearly that this division is stabilized at an EBIT of above EUR 1 billion and is earning what they want to invest throughout the transformation. So much for the divisional snapshot. Happy to talk more about each of the divisions. But already, as Tobias mentioned, the heads up that we also plan a Capital Markets event in the spring where you will then also hear more from the divisional colleagues on where they stand with regard to their respective businesses. And that brings me to the wrap-up page. So Strategy 2030 - Accelerate Sustainable Growth. We feel well positioned to grow going forward, leveraging the strong divisional footprints, but also putting these cross-divisional growth initiatives as an additional booster on top. We will naturally focus, and that is what sustainable means, on profitable growth. So we're not going to grow just for the fun of growing, but it is really about profitable growth. We have come a long way, but we understand that there are further opportunities to improve profitability. We will do that with the divisional improvement road maps, but also by streamlining and simplifying our group structure. And last but not least, cash flow, capital allocation, return on invested capital are important and will remain important throughout this next strategic horizon. So now, Tobias and I have thrown a lot of stuff at you, and we also tried, for internal purposes, to bring it all together on one page. I wouldn't say it's a simple page, but it has pretty much everything on the one page. We call it our Strategy Diamond, and I would ask Tobias to come back up on stage to wrap it up with the Strategy Diamond.

Yes. Thank you, Melanie. So how are we going to present this internally? That's the graphical layout. So we call our Strategy for 2030, Accelerate Sustainable Growth. Melanie already highlighted, sustainable in a double meaning of economically sustainable and ecologically sustainable. We follow 5 trends now, and we had 4 before. We recognize, particularly the global trade is changing, but we also see still a lot of opportunity in the way trade patterns develop. We have a strong foundation, and we want to keep what's working well. I think that's also important, and sometimes maybe not sufficiently emphasized when talking about new strategies. We add green logistics of choice as our fourth bottomline. We keep the established 3 ones. It's really a framework that has helped us a lot. Also to govern through difficult circumstances, we are a very decentral organization present in many countries with many local management teams. And as a company that wants to be globally local, having such a framework, we believe, is really important. We think we're ready for more, and we try to be specific on how we want to accelerate growth, how we want to achieve that significant top line growth, but also increase profitability and increase our return on invested capital, and we'll keep the structure of 5 divisions. We think this is the right way to manage the portfolio that we have, but we want to align the legal structure to that management structure also because we are certain that this is the way it should stay, that we have those 5 divisions and the operating model with a lean corporate center on top of that. With that, I thank you for your attention and look forward to your questions.

Exactly. Thank you very much, Melanie, Tobias, for leading us through the deck. We're going to take the questions here from the floor with a friendly help of our helping hands. We also have a number of questions coming in from the also very strong external audience who's following us virtually. But let's start with the questions here from the floor. And Alexia, I think you were first.

It's Alexia Dogani from JPMorgan. Two questions for me. Just firstly, I appreciate this is kind of your next 5-year cycle plan, but could you give us some comments on current trading because the macro backdrop is quite uncertain and the market seems to want to focus a little bit on your near-term performance. And then secondly, on your Accelerate Sustainable Growth plan. Can you discuss a little bit what levers can you pull should economic growth be less buoyant than the 2.5% to 3%? And especially with regards to Express, have you found any new levers you can pull to ensure that the business keeps moving forward, absent cyclical recovery?

Maybe happy to start with current trading, then you can add. I think there's nothing new. This is also why we haven't covered it next to what we said on August 1. So clearly, we are heading more towards the lower end of our guidance with the macroeconomic background that we see. We put a couple of measures and changes into place that particularly affect the fourth quarter. I think we have been transparent around that. We see no reason to believe that we will not see the typical seasonality, which is obviously relevant for some of our business, not only Express, but also the P&P business becomes increasingly cyclical as the share of B2C Parcels increases in the overall business mix. So there is no real news. We've continued to see strong growth out of Asia exports, really in some weeks being astonishingly strong, but we also continue to see certain weakness in Europe when it comes to B2B, especially. But on the other hand, we also now had a couple of good weeks when it comes to Parcel growth again. So it is unfortunately that relatively inconsistent picture that I think is somehow not the first time that we portrayed in that way this year. So there is no update on the current trading. Anything to add? Then we come to the sustainable growth element. I think this is a good question because if you go through what we try to address, and that's also why we call it structural tailwind, we want to participate in more, in some trends that are not that cyclical and are not that closely related to the general economic performance. That is the case in e-commerce. We also get the questions now, what would happened, for instance, if we have more trade barriers. I truly believe this will have maybe an impact for 1, 2, 3 quarters, but the underlying desire of consumers to buy online and the advantage that they see relative to stationary retail is progressing in an actually quite consistent way also across different economies that you have this S-curve phenomena. So that we see, and we see similar patterns in the Life Science & Healthcare sector, and what's going to happen in that space that we call New Energy. So that is what we focus on. Now when it comes to Express, we have to stay on the upper end of the demands of our customers regarding quality and willingness to pay. I think opening the Express business model too much to lower-value shipments is not a strategy that we would follow, neither in B2B nor B2C. Particularly in B2C from e-commerce platforms, we have those waves where they are very much on an expansion, yes, expansion theme and they are willing to invest also in new customer relations by paying more for the logistics service. We are currently clearly in the phase where it's more about consolidation of e-commerce players and they are very much focused on spend. We have seen those ways before, and I think there's good reason to believe that we'll return also with those platforms to a more expansionary trend. So that's, I think, what we have to say about e-commerce. The colleagues have been, I think, very good in finding those pockets of growth and building market share even under adverse conditions. And if we continue to do that, we strongly believe this will be a very successful business.

Well, I think that was simultaneously taking care of a question that Parash Jain from HSBC was handing in. So I think that we've sorted out how the Chinese retailer volume affects the Express network or rather does not affect. Want to deal with the short-term questions first, just for the sake of clarity. So you are happy with the stickiness of the demand surcharge that has been introduced in the Express network?

Absolutely.

Good. We come to the next question from the floor. Johannes Braun, please.

I have 2 as well. First one, DSV is buying DB Schenker. Question would be, to what extent has that already found its way into your Strategy 2030? And if so, what has changed? And also maybe, you can elaborate a little bit what opportunities arise over the next 2 to 3 years as DSV and DB Schenker is probably busy with integration process? And second question that you have alluded to it at the beginning, I think. The share price remains low. Obviously, there's a macro component to it, but also in peer comparison, it remains low, I'd say. Question would be, what can you do over and above what you presented today to create some more shareholder value? Thinking about the overall group setup, anything to change there? Because most of your peers that are trading above euro multiples are not as much of a conglomerate than you are.

So thank you for that question, particularly the first one is a great one. I mean, DSV is a very capable company. They have shown, they have a good track record in doing M&A, and we obviously recognize that. Though also in past acquisitions, when they absorb it and bring it to their profitability level, which they do very well, but not every dollar of revenue has arrived. And if you absorb a company that is equal size and much more complex, they, for instance, have a strong exposure also to LTL, that, as such, for us is good. We see more concentration in certain markets. LTL markets in the Nordics, for instance, but also for large tech players, which need large flexibility and access to capacity, the number of players becomes less. . And as much as I wish the colleagues all the best in the integration, we know that this is heavy lifting, particularly if you have companies which, from a system perspective, are on 2 other sides of the spectrum and in many ways, how to think about this business and manage this business. So we are open for business. And if customers want to have a reliable partner that is not distracted, we would not take that -- or we would be happy to take that call and not reject that request for a chat. So this is a much better outcome than if Schenker would have been bought by private equity, I think, that is very clear for most people who know our industry. So we're very much looking forward, and what we do and focus on in Global Forwarding will obviously have enough capacity to be keenly attentive to this evolvement in the industry and an intensive dialogue with customers that are looking for alternatives. So as it relates to the share price, I think there are -- I mean, our dissatisfaction is very clear, particularly relative to peers when it comes to absolute valuation of multiples. I think we try to lay out the levers that we see that we can address here. I think some speculation around the portfolio and conglomerate, to some extent, you see that it's not addressable now anyway. So there is work to be done. In any case, whether that becomes relevant, it's not something that I would say. But it is not a question that is relevant now. We laid out clearly the 3 levers that we see. Accelerating Growth, we have not consistently delivered above GDP growth. If you look at our 10-, 15-year history, we've become much closer and better in the last 3 to 4 years. Supply chain has gained market share and has changed that trajectory. With Forwarding, we still have to prove that. E-commerce, we talked about where we have a division that's still maybe not in the infant stage, but more as a teenager now that we need to bring into a proper bread earning position. So that's what we focus on combined with cash flow generation and the shareholder returns that Melanie mentioned.

Okay. Let's continue on the floor. Muneeba, you're next.

Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America. So on Express, where do you think your market share is now? Are you happy with that? And it was something that was talked about quite a bit in the Express CMD a couple of years ago, so if you could revisit that. And you talked about the fact that you want to remain focused on the kind of top end priority shipments. What would make you consider kind of more deferred economy mix like one of your competitors is doing? Or is that kind of totally off the table? . And then on share buybacks, so EUR 1 billion per annum, you're developing a good track record here. As we think about to 2030, is that the EUR 1 billion number we should be thinking about? Or kind of mathematically, from free cash flow, how should we think about that? If you could give a framework on that, please?

I will take the first two, and then comment on the latter. So Express market share overall, I mean, we have had a consistent trend upward. We don't measure it every year now because being a bit frugal. These studies also cost quite a lot of money. But from the data that we have, also comparing with what our competitors publish, we feel good about the global average. But I think in Express, it's also important to think about it region by region. So in some regions, I think we are -- would even argue, we shouldn't have more, but we obviously have regions, particularly in North America, where we are not as strong, and that's something we need to think about those regions differently than regions where we have a very high market share. But on average, on a good trend, and we don't have any worries as it relates to the competitiveness of our Express division. You were mentioning your second question?

Can I just add to that. So I mean, unchanged, we are the clear market leader in all regions but the Americas for obvious reasons. And I think that implies that we have a really great footprint also in some of these very attractively growing economies. When you think about Southeast Asia, we have an unparalleled footprint. Asia, for us, was always more than just China. So I think we are fantastically positioned there. But also even in the Americas, where, of course, UPS and FedEx, with their strong footprint in the U.S., have a certain advantage. When you look at countries in Latin America, when you look at Mexico, we are extremely well positioned. And as we have said, even though we haven't done a full-fledged market study, we have clearly at least taken -- at least developed in line with market or rather take market share. So a good foundation for future growth.

So as it relates to deferred and economy element, I think we have a keen focus on overall yield. We have an ACS product, but that's a different product. It's more catering to the freight market and the different type of shippers. On the intercontinental side, I think we would be very careful with any of a deferred or economy type of offering because the cost structure isn't that different, whereas the yield degradation, at least what we also see in the market, can be quite pronounced. As it relates to certain regional offerings, that's a bit different because if you obviously have a mode change. In our European network, for instance, we do offer what we call a DDI, a Day Definite International product, that is a different topic for us and that we are keenly interested as well. And we will continue to build that out. So that's the way we would think about it. When there is a clear difference in the cost structure, for instance, due to a modal shift, that is an option also within the Express framework. In those areas where the cost structure doesn't materially differentiate because of international airline haul, then we would rather not see that as a good option.

And then on the share buyback, I understand that it would be very nice if there was a mathematical formula. We have that for the regular dividend, this clear linkage to net profit because, obviously, the regular dividend is kind of like the solid pillar of shareholder return. As we have shown in our finance policy, inorganic growth on the business side and share buyback is of the balancing element, and that is why there is no simple mathematical formula. But obviously, our intention is to continue with a very balanced approach here, focus for now is to complete the current EUR 600 million tranche by the end of the year and then go into the execution of the EUR 1 billion for next year.

That leads to a follow-up from the outside on the buyback policy and the dividend policy. I mean last year, we had a very high payout maintaining dividend, depending on where the year comes out. What would be your preference? You rather violate the 60% payout threshold or cut the dividend?

So it's very nice of Martin to ask it so bluntly, I already tried to very clearly hint at that with the strong emphasis on dividend continuity. I think that is, for us, absolutely priority. So I think the answer is a dividend continuity would be first.

It wasn't my question. All right. Cedar.

Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley. Just taking a step back, if I look at some of the high-level numbers that you're giving on growth aside from the supply chain business, it doesn't look like we're really talking about an acceleration of growth relative to, say, the last 5 years, 2019 to 2024, just looking at where consensus sits for the end of this year. You've also spoken about some of these broader megatrends around e-commerce, going after some of the business in pharma, which is higher growth. So I'd like to understand why there isn't more ambition on that sort of group top line target? Then on the structure, can you please just confirm that there is no impact, either positive or negative, as it relates to sort of costs to separate? Could you be saving costs because you're going to have a much smaller central function? Or should we be thinking about costs to build the central functions within the different divisions? And then just lastly, I've got more, but I'll keep it to 3. On e-commerce as a division, it seems that the trajectory in the industry is that it's becoming more competitive to compete with customers demanding more speed of delivery, free delivery when you check out online. And so I'd just like to understand, why you are so positive on the margin potential in that business? Is there not a risk that the medium-term margins in e-commerce actually disappoint to the downside and you end up growing -- the fastest growing business within the group actually started to dilute the group margins over the medium term?

Yes. Thank you for those good questions. Maybe let me start with the last one because we do understand the concern based on the development of the last years, but what we now see is the structural growth driver in that consumer demand is intact, and the capital inflow has significantly reduced, which there was obviously a massive spike driven by 2 effects. One, online, big online platforms, putting large amounts of capital into logistic infrastructure, including last mile. And the industry itself, strongly stimulated by COVID also being on an expansion spread. Those things, if you really look, have significantly changed over the last 24 months, and we can see that even in markets that have been flushed with capital and where you really had a blood bath in terms of B2C yields that, that is significantly changing. And we shouldn't forget that as such, geographies with a reasonable complexity in parcel delivery tend to move into the good industry structure. We see that currently in our business in the Netherlands, for instance. There are many markets where that is still in progression, where the transition from B2B to B2C has not fully progressed, and that is also the case for some of our businesses, and that will take some more time or where you had, through the significant inflow of capital, many new entrants. We see this in Southeast Asia, for instance. We are currently seeing a certain shakeout in India where also a lot of capital has been coming in. But I think it is very visible now that, that phase is coming to an end and that we see a natural consolidation trend, as we have seen in established Parcel markets, at least in most of those. Coming to your second question on structure, that will not have a material effect on ongoing cost for different reasons. We'll continue to have a keen eye on the cost of the corporate center. But given that the management on how we want to manage the business does not change through this alignment of the legal structure, there is no material change on that. We do that for other reasons, particularly flexibility and reduction of complexity. We might have certain one-off effects, but also not in a major way. Then to your first question in terms of the observation of our current trajectory over the last years and the outlook. I think there is a material difference in the assumption, particularly on the inflationary component that has affected our industry and has provided a tailwind on the top line, particularly when you compare it to 2019. So going forward, that component is lower, and that means that, indeed, if we want to achieve that same revenue CAGR, it has to come more through the growth of the shipment number and the underlying business because that component makes quite a difference over that 6-year period.

Okay. I think Rob, you were next.

It's Robert Joynson from BNP Paribas Exane. First question, just on the new 2030 targets. If I try to quantify the divisional targets and add them up, I estimate group EBIT of somewhere between EUR 9 billion and EUR 10 billion for 2030. So first of all, is that a fair estimate? And if it is a fair estimate, how should investors think about that? Should they consider a base case scenario or more of a kind of best case scenario if nothing goes wrong and everything goes right at the same time type of thing? So that's the first question. The second question on Express. When we look out to 2030, it's obviously quite a long time away. Could you talk about the assumptions concerning -- assumptions you made concerning the development of the Chinese e-commerce players. So specifically, if you expect those players will continue to take market share in terms of flows of consumer goods from Asia to Europe. Do you see that as a positive, a negative or a neutral for DHL Express specifically? And then the final question on Forwarding. You talked in the slides about achieving a 35% conversion ratio through the cycle. To date, that's only been achieved in 1 year, which was 2022. And for this year, it looks like the conversion ratio could be, I would imagine, somewhere in the mid, maybe upper 20% range, and that's despite benefits provided by the Red Sea, I think it's fair to say. Should we be looking at 2024 as a trough year for forwarding profitability? Or maybe could there be incremental pressure from here?

So maybe I take 2 and 3, and then Melanie, you may comment on the first question. So I think we try to lay out that on the Forwarding side, the improvement that we see is not that much cyclical, but we have to continue to work on the structural efficiency. You might argue, that takes a long time and I would agree to that. The system changes are now translating into more process changes. We do see, and I try to highlight that the impact it has on productivity. But we -- and it also has on quality, which we see in the positive customer feedback. But that work needs to continue to gradually and structurally improve and not only hope for a cyclical recovery. On the Chinese flows, I would say, our exposure to that, particularly on Asia, Europe, might not be as big as many people think. We only play at the top end of this. There's a vast amount of Chinese e-commerce shipments, which are completely irrelevant for Express. And we stay true that there needs to be a high willingness to pay. And e-com platforms typically use us either for high-value goods or when, through an initial purchase, they want to make sure that it's a high-quality experience for a consumer, or when it's a new market where the simplicity of our Express network just makes that the choice for them to build that market but at a cost position that for them is probably not viable in the longer term. That has been the use of Express, and that's why this exposure is fairly limited. I think overall, we have to see that for our business, we saw that in a couple of years back when a lot of e-comm came by the postal flow, and there was a change of some regulatory aspects, but also the price setting within the UPU framework that made those flow collapse, but they showed up. It wasn't even 18 months later when we had a significant surpassing of the prior peak in volume from China. So that underlying demand from consumers is there. And whilst the pattern might change, we will participate through our broad portfolio of services in that trend.

So on the first question, I mean, first of all, technically, I can follow your math. I think that is why we also gave this modeling help so that you can kind of like play around the assumptions, and that then obviously takes you in this order of around EUR 10 billion. I think that also, when you look at it from the big picture, I mean, starting with EUR 80 billion in revenue and EUR 6 billion in EBIT and then having 50% growth should clearly take you to that order of magnitude. We're not going to give you a specific number. I think we are at a point in time where there's obviously still a question mark out there with regard to our ability to deliver on this year's guidance and the medium-term guidance. But I think the important thing is we have also internally now set to the organization this ambitious growth target, get to the EUR 120 billion. And sustainable growth, as already alluded to, of course, also means profitable growth. So that should then also translate into a good progress on the EBIT side.

Okay. That sort of takes care of the follow-up question that we got from Andy Chu, who figured out that we need a stronger outgrowth of EBIT versus revenue until 2030 compared to what we have seen over the past 5 years, but that's probably due to the even better overall shape that all organizations are on. Before we continue on the floor with you, Marco, one question from Patrick Creuset, Goldman Sachs. He was asking about the practical implications of this structural clean up? Does it come with savings? I understand that's maybe one motivation. Why does it take 1 to 2 years? So maybe you want to share some of the more technical details around that?

Well, I mean, why does it take time? We have 807 entities, and we have the listed entity that is also the operating entity for P&P and parts of e-commerce. And that just needs some time to unwind and bring into this the structure that mirrors our management structure. We need to obviously align with tax authorities and have some other requirements to facilitate that, and that takes a certain amount of time. So that's what I would say to that. We obviously don't want to trigger a high tax payment due to these changes. So we have a keen eye on that. And if there's one or the other entity where waiting avoids such additional tax payments, we will also do that. So that's the process we have set in motion. And also for Germany, obviously, there's a certain transfer that needs to happen. That also requires preparation and decisions and then the actual doing of things, and we estimate that with a 1- to 2-year time horizon. Again, it's more to have a complexity reduction and to have more flexibility for the divisions on the IT side, but also in other ways, to develop their business.

All right. I think that answers the question from Patrick, very well. Marco, we continue with you.

Marco Limite from Barclays. I've got 3 questions. The first one, so today, you are basically announcing a bit of effort in cross-unit sales effort based on some specific verticals. So I mean, just wondering if you see an opportunity also to integrate more, the 5 units also from a cost perspective? So if, yes, cost integration can follow the top line integration you are kind of talking about today? Second question is on, let's say, '25 and '26 outlook. Clearly, the guidance for '26 is unchanged. So, yes, I guess the message is that you still believe that the '26 guidance is still valid. But just wondering, yes, what do you think we need to see in terms of macro environment for you to get to the EUR 7.5 billion EBIT minimum for '26? And the third question is on the Freight Forwarding unit. Just wondering what's your thinking at the moment about the gross profit per unit normalization post-pandemic, given that the gross profit per unit yields are still tracking well ahead compared to pre-pandemic levels? So if you think we should expect more normalization going forward or if you think your focus on higher yield verticals can basically support the yields?

So maybe I'll start with the last one. If nothing changes in the world of transport and you have a slow buildup of overcapacity, this is the case when forwarding yields gradually drop. And the problem is, we never know whether there's another disruption. Whether there's a disruption to the change in the Chinese e-commerce pattern, which could be good or bad, but could also be good for a while because buying becomes more less expensive very quickly then, whereas yields typically hold up longer. So this is, I think, the challenge on predicting those yields as it comes to the industry. What we tried to show is that our work on quality and also yield management in the area of DGF, we see ourselves on a trajectory to catch up with the leading peers in the industry sector, and that's what we are primarily focused on. But forecasting transportation rates is something that I've given up on about 10 years ago. I spent quite a bit of my life on that as it relates to ocean shipping with some success, I have to say, but I'm not in that line anymore. The dynamics and incidence of the last years have shown us that this obviously can change the picture very quickly. We need to be focused on that structural improvement.

Yes. So maybe to add, with all the caveats around forward-looking statements are particularly difficult in Global Forwarding. When we look at where we are at this point in time, I mean, obviously, when you look at the GP per ton on the air freight side, that has come down quite close to the 2019 levels. But now, again, we are seeing that things are moving up and that it will probably be a bit of a crazy air freight peak season particularly out of Asia due to the distortions to the market from the Chinese e-com players. On the ocean freight side, obviously, the development of the year '24 is a showcase example for what Tobias just said. I think at the beginning of the year, everybody thought that overcapacity and rates will come under pressure. GP per TEU is still substantially above 2019. And due to all the unpredicted Red Sea and the like events, it stays at a higher level. I think for us, again, the important thing is that we see structured growth opportunities also on the back of the significantly improved quality in DGF. I think we will be able to really sell in a more intelligent and better priced way than before, and that's a great opportunity for us.

Then maybe I continue with your first question, and Melanie, you might also take the second on the '26 guidance, I would say, we at least need a bit more dynamic development in Europe, but you're going to comment on that. So on the [ cross BU ] side and the potential cost opportunity that you manage through integration, I think we'll keep it very much the way we currently do it. We have very targeted and focused collaboration areas. So we have built, for instance, the hub in Poznan that is used by 3 divisions, that can sort for all 3 divisions, which has a very clear purpose in terms of connecting the German network to the Polish network and provide from that point. Good connectivity to the rest of Europe. So those things we do. But the broad range integration, for instance, of pickup and delivery operations between Express and P&P, you will not see from us because we have made clear experience that this is would damage our value proposition, particularly in the higher-end segment, and we are very keenly protecting yields and quality as it comes to Express. And we also do see the mere need in the market, and particularly in e-commerce, I mean, e-commerce has proven that. There's just a spectrum out there from you ordering a charger cable to so far or other big pieces of equipment that need to man handling, that in Europe, but also in other markets, we see it as an advantage to have multiple networks for different types of cargo when it comes to the dimensioning of it, but also when it comes to the lead time and quality requirements. So we are very much in that camp that we think that diversity is needed to be a player across those different segments and customer needs, and that's also why we increasingly partner with others to offer a broader choice instead of putting yellow sauce over everything and only having one offer. So that is our belief. Also not having made the best experience with some of those integration exercises. I know that some people in other geographies have a different plan and we wish them all the best. But we think that differentiation is good for us to be the provider of choice for customers that also have different needs.

And maybe to add to that, you talked about what we're doing on the operations side. I think a very clear message. As you were mentioning, also opportunities, for example, in indirect like on the sales side. So we already have a cross-divisional sales organization for our top customers, CSI. So that is, of course, one element which we are strengthening. As Tobias has also said for operations, when you talk about the field sales folks, it is a different selling approach across the divisions. And I think you also have to bear in mind that in terms of size, each of the large divisions is so sizable that getting efficiencies in the back office in the respective IT landscape is probably the more relevant focus over that, is for us more of a within division lever than a cross-divisional lever. With regard to the midterm guidance, yes, I mean, as Tobias already said, it would obviously help if Europe would be a bit more dynamic. That's one region where we have seen, yes, a continued sluggishness in the course of the year. And naturally fundamentally, we now saw in the second quarter that air, ocean freight and B2B Express were back in growth territory, but not in the most dynamic state. So if you now want to go to this midterm guidance, we obviously have to see a bit of an acceleration on B2B overall and continued healthy trends on the e-com side. We are, again, looking at what we are now seeing in the early phases of the '24 pickup peak season, e-com seems to be very healthy and reliable.

Okay. We got one further question here from Patrick Creuset, which basically translates into -- I mean, we touched on some of that already. But maybe Tobias, if you go through the operating divisions, how is the balance between dependence on the decent macro background versus enough self-help in the tank for them to work along the aspirations that we have articulated? How would you rank the operating divisions there? .

So I think on Express, we are very well positioned. I think we have done a lot of things right. So the margin trend is largely cyclical. We have some additional measures that we try to describe to accelerate growth, which we're going to follow through. So there is some more momentum. As it comes to Global Forwarding, I think I was very explicit about that, that we expect further structural improvements to both improve margin, but also get and follow other divisions on the trajectory to gaining market share, which we have not done consistently in that business. Supply chain, I think, is on a very good path. The trajectory over the last 3 years is not only a positive one, but also an extremely consistent one. Yes, we also are exposed, obviously, in a much lesser way, but still to the ordering numbers and movement of inventory. But if I look at the new business signing across the world and particularly also in North America, for instance, it is a very positive and consistent trajectory. E-com, I think we were also clear, has a couple of more years in terms of building out networks, and gradually also being part of the consolidation in some of those markets to then increase margins. And P&P is the story that many of you know, but we're the center of gravity, and I think that may not be sufficiently appreciated, 10 years ago, if you look at the size of our Mail business relative to the Parcel business is very different from today, and that will be very different from 5, 6, 7 years from now due to the simple gravity of continued growth in Parcel. The goods carrying segment, if you include goods carrying letters, is now substantially larger than documents and advertising that we carry. And obviously, in 5, 6 years, that balance would have further shifted. So that, I think, is something to watch for P&P.

All right. I think that was very useful. So I'm looking around, I think thematically, we've covered basically all of the questions out there. We've got a few follow-ups here, starting with Alexia.

When you think about pricing within your different divisions, do you think each division is appropriately monetizing its leading position, service excellence and kind of premium products? Or do you think there is some scope to pull that lever should the volume turn out to be different to your base plan?

So obviously, on some business like P&P, that's a question that has different aspects as well. Melanie alluded to that. I think we are not equity compensated for that, but we'll see what the regulator thinks about that. We have progressed on the Parcel side there quite a bit. And I think our pricing towards business customer is very professional and state-of-the-art similar to Express. I think the pricing in Global Forwarding is something that still has in the entire industry's way to improve. So that is part of those structural improvements that we count on. And on Supply chain. Again, I think there, it will take time, but the business model is evolving in a way that helps us capture more value. We have done several deals where we have gained share agreements, and we generally made very positive experience with that. I think that the return on robotics could help us. And you could argue, we are a bit conservative on that, but it's still a point to be proven at scale. We see the operational benefits of it, but it will change the business model ultimately to be a very large provider of Robotics-as-a-Service, and that will be priced differently than labor. Labor, we still have a fair share of open book, which on the one hand side is good because it's low risk. On the other side, it very much limits our upside, and that will change if we move into Robotics-as-a-Service as a much bigger share of what we do and a much bigger share of the cost structure, but also the value that we provide to customers that we then also evolve our pricing. So there's clearly the idea for doing that and using that as an improvement lever, but that will take until the end of the decade to really be at the magnitude that also moves our EPS.

So just maybe quick 2 additions. One to the specific divisional comment on the Forwarding side. I think that is also an area where this increased transparency, which we now have, thanks to the new IT systems, is really giving us the foundation to price in a smarter way. And then overall, from the group perspective, that has been one of the focused topics of our commercial Board under the leadership of John Pearson. We have established a Pricing Improvement Group. It's a bit unfair that abbreviation is PIG. So the PIG group has made great progress and also sharing best practices because we have different levels of sophistication in the different divisions.

All right. I think, Cedar, you had a follow-up? .

I did, and you've answered a little bit of it already, but I just wanted to go back to the conversion margin in the Forwarding business. Can you give us a little bit of color on how we think about how much of that comes from yield measures? And how much of that comes from operating cost savings and both of that linked to the sort of tech solution that you now have in place? And then if you could also just elaborate, how sophisticated, do you believe your usage is of the tech system? Are we sort of realizing half of the potential when it comes to the yield uplift that we could potentially see? Or is it 30%? Just a bit of context in terms of where you see the business on that yield journey in Forwarding.

So I would add as it relates to the evolvement of the system and the process is a third component, which is the attraction of different type of business, so the value-add component, but also the ability for us on this SME point, which you have seen, which I think also it's worth spending a couple of words on because we are not kind of a great fan of jumping into the pool of onetime shippers. This is more to onboard and provide good tech and processes to onboard midsized companies with our primary focus on refreshing also our portfolio and growing these into loyal customers because the loyalty of our DGF customers is quite astonishing. If you look in many countries, we have kept out of our top 20 customers. A lot of those are there for a decade or longer. So our ability to retain is very good in Global Forwarding, but our ability to grow new customers and grow with new customers is much less pronounced than with Express, for instance. So that is a component that, I think, is as relevant as the productivity and yield component. To be honest, I would not like to put a number which share exactly goes to yield and productivity. I think our current focus is more on productivity. Yield is more still where we do conceptual work and there is more to be done, and the ability, particularly on the onboarding side, but also on the cost-effective serving of smaller customers is something that I think is very important for the growth trajectory of the division.

Okay. Then Johannes Braun with one follow-up.

Just on -- I think that's for Melanie. The return on invested capital in your new KPI. You showed us 16% for last year. I was just wondering, is there any target level that you want to achieve by 2030? And also what keeps you right now to include that into the management compensation system as you did with free cash flow, I think, back in the days?

I think for us, the answer is easy on the latter one. The AGM needs to vote on that.

Yes. So I mean, we will come to the AGM with the proposal on the Corporate Board Remuneration Scheme. And I think for us, it would be logical to also include that. But I think there are other stakeholders led by the Supervisory Board who now have to work through that. On the target, we have specifically not given a target because it's a little bit like where we were a couple of years ago with free cash flow, when started to kind of like really get the focus of the organization more into it. So we also had to learn how to get better at free cash flow forecasting. We then included that in our short-term guidance and our medium-term guidance, and I think that is also the evolution we are now going through with return on invested capital. But clearly, the intention is that, yes, we will now talk in every business review meeting about, hey, how are we doing on return on invested capital. And I think that will make sure that over time, we will evolve to a maturity level where we can then also talk about forward-looking numbers.

All right. Thank you. And keeping in only on the time for a quick follow-up from Marco. .

Just a follow-up question on your Express top line target, where I think you said that you expect B2C to grow around 7%. Yes. What gives you confidence about that 7%, at least I mean over the last couple of years without the Chinese retailers, probably the e-commerce growth has been quite slower than that?

Yes. So I mean, what I said was when we look at this TDI overall growth, 4% to 5%. You have the slower component B2B more in line with GDP, and then the B2C component more in line with what Tobias told for overall growth. I think we had seen a very good and dynamic and strong growth on the B2B -- B2C side in Express, also when you strip out the Chinese e-com players, which have been more of a phenomenon of the last 18 months. We are now going through the last stretches of the normalization. For us there's no reason not to believe that we will get back into cross-border e-com growth, which is attractive for Express. I think the most important thing, coming back to what Tobias already said earlier, is we will be super selective also on the B2C side. So rather less growth and at the right price, than too much growth with a negative contribution.

All right. We're being conscious of time. I would think that we covered all areas, probably not all, in every detail. So good news is, still a little while to go before we go into our Q3 quiet period. So we're looking forward to seeing you out there over the next 2 weeks, basically on conferences and road shows. And before we hand over to Tobias for the closing remarks of your inaugural strategy cycle, I would like to thank you very much for showing up here with high-quality questions and wishing you a good rest of the day.

Yes. Thank you also from my side, both for being here, listening in, but also the very good questions. Indeed, I think very good and informed dialogue. What we try to lay out is where, obviously, we are coming from. And I strongly believe it's very important, especially internally, to keep what's working well and not break that. The industry has a bit of a track record of heroic stories not going so well. So we are very attentive to that also. This is why we see this as an evolution, but an evolution where we are very mindful, targeted and focused about the opportunities that surround us. We try to lay out in which sectors we see that, but also in the divisional road maps, going to talk about more, and the colleagues are going to talk about more in the next Capital Markets Day so that you get really some more detail on that as well that we have an organization that is ready for more and capable for more is what I truly believe. We're very well positioned in many geographies and sectors that now show that growth. And we have a footprint that we can further broaden and that we can further deepen in the value chain, especially of e-commerce, but it's an extremely good base to build on to accelerate growth and make that sustainable from a profitability, but also from a carbon perspective. With that, thank you very much, and have a great day. Thank you.