Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. I'm Gordon Korkie, Fund Manager of Dexus Industrial REIT. Thank you for joining us for the 2025 Half Year Results Presentation. I'd like to begin today by acknowledging the traditional custodians of the many lands on which we operate and pay our respects to elders past and present. Today, I'll discuss DXI's investment proposition, key highlights and financial results for the period. I'll also provide insights into our portfolio performance and what we are seeing in the market. I'll then hand back over to Q&A. DXI's investment proposition is to generate strong risk-adjusted returns for investors seeking listed industrial real estate exposure. We achieve this by focusing on 3 key objectives. First, we own a portfolio capable of delivering strong organic income growth. Our portfolio can reach 80% of the population within 60 minutes, making our properties highly attractive to a diverse range of tenants, supporting strong occupancy and resilient income growth. Second, we practice prudent balance sheet management, providing us with the resilience and the flexibility to invest opportunistic throughout the cycle. And finally, we take an active but disciplined approach to portfolio management to maximize value-adding opportunities while minimizing portfolio risk. Turning to the highlights for the period. We are on track to deliver on FY '25 guidance, having delivered FFO per security of $0.091, up 5.7% compared to the half year '24. Distributions were $0.082 per security. The strong result was underpinned by like-for-like growth of 4.7% across the total portfolio, including 17.6% like-for-like growth at BTP. Our leasing momentum remained robust with re-leasing spreads of 12.2% and occupancy of 99.5%. Continuing the positive momentum within our development pipeline, we successfully activated 51,000 square meters of new developments across 4 new projects and leased more than 79,000 square meters at Jandakot in the half, including 2 new pre-commitments leased to blue-chip tenants. Our balance sheet remains strong with one of the lowest gearing ratios in the sector. Look-through gearing of 27.7% remains below our 30% to 40% target range, providing the flexibility to be opportunistic. Additionally, we achieved property valuation uplifts, resulting in NTA growth of 2.5% as we continue to see the pace of cap rate expansion moderate. Turning to the fundamentals of our quality portfolio. The diversified portfolio comprised interest in 93 assets valued at $1.4 billion with a 64% exposure to the East Coast. The portfolio provides an attractive and resilient income stream at close to full occupancy, a WALE of 5.6 years backed by high-quality tenant covenants and an attractive mix of rental escalators with 85% generating an average fixed review of 3.3% while retaining effective inflation protection. We continue to actively position the portfolio to generate long-term performance and capture growth in the industrial sector. We retain a disciplined approach to investing in our development pipeline, which provides an ongoing opportunity to drive earnings and valuation growth. Turning to our expiry profile. Our near-term lease expiries are predominantly located in Western and South Australia, markets which have delivered strong leasing outcomes over the past 12 months. Medium-term industrial expiries are concentrated in Victoria, presenting an attractive opportunity to generate strong rent reversions given these expiries are generally under-rented. Our proactive asset management approach has consistently delivered leasing outcomes above value assumptions, driving not only earnings outcomes, but also supporting valuations. At BTP, we are well positioned to handle upcoming expiries due to our enhanced product offering and the strength of the Brisbane office market. Our portfolio boasts a high-quality base of more than 180 tenants across a well-diversified mix of sectors, which continue to perform well, including wholesale trade, construction, manufacturing and services. This diversity enhances the resilience of our income stream and reduces the dependency on any single sector. Our top tenant is WesTrac, representing 16% of total income with approximately 10 years remaining on the lease. WesTrac's commitment to excellence is evident in their investment at their flagship facility in Tomago, including a large-scale on-site solar project and automation to drive operational efficiencies. The remainder of our rent roll is leased to experienced national and global operators, including Amazon, Sandvik and Kmart to name a few. Turning to sustainability. We are committed to delivering meaningful sustainability outcomes, delivering both environmental and financial benefits while aligning with the broader Dexus sustainability strategy. The DXI portfolio maintains its carbon-neutral status on Scope 1 and 2 emissions across our managed portfolio, which has been supported by the continued installation of solar and sourcing 100% renewable electricity for assets under our operational control. We continue to integrate sustainability into developments from both a design and construction perspective. At Moorebank, we've been able to recycle 92% of construction waste by crushing and reusing concrete. We continue to integrate sustainability initiatives with the new developments, focusing on embodied carbon, renewable energy and water conservation. Turning to the financials. We delivered FFO of $28.8 million or $0.091 per security, reflecting a 5.7% increase compared to the prior period. Our portfolio delivered like-for-like growth of 4.7%, underpinned by average rent reviews of 3.7% and higher occupancy at BTP. While divestments executed in prior periods impacted property income, they contributed positively by reducing net finance costs and minimizing the full impact of higher interest rates. Distributions were $0.082 per security, reflecting a payout ratio of 90.3%. Net tangible assets per security grew by 2.5% to $3.32, driven by net property valuation uplifts compared to devaluations in successive past periods. Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to maintain a strong financial position, providing us with the flexibility to enhance long-term value for our investors. Our look-through gearing remained low at 27.7%, well below our target range of 30% to 40%. This prudent approach ensures we have the capacity to pursue value-enhancing opportunities while maintaining financial strength. To put this in perspective, gearing would remain well below the top end of our 30% to 40% target range even if we were to fully debt fund our entire development pipeline today. In the period, we refinanced $160 million of debt, thereby reducing any short-term refinancing risk with no debt maturities until November 2026. Turning to valuations. I'm pleased to report a positive outcome for the period ended December 2024, the first positive outcome since 2022. We achieved a net valuation uplift of $34 million, representing a 2.4% increase on prior book values with a pace of cap rate expansion slowing. For comparison, the 9 basis points of expansion this period compares to the 58 basis points of expansion in the prior 12-month period. Rental growth was a key driver supporting the valuation outcome, in part reflecting the strong leasing outcomes achieved above market rents. Leasing success at our Moorebank development drove a $4 million uplift. Turning to our industrial portfolio. Our industrial portfolio continues to generate strong operating performance, driven by high occupancy, robust leasing outcomes and successful development projects. Like-for-like growth of 2.4% was supported by average rent reviews of 3.8% across the portfolio, partly offset by some intra-period vacancy at 2 Maker Place, which dampened growth by 280 basis points. We expect like-for-like growth to strengthen for the full year as a result of our prior and current leasing efforts, which have delivered strong leasing outcomes. For the half, re-leasing spreads for industrial were 12.2%, 10.5% above valuation assumptions. A notable achievement in delivering portfolio occupancy of 99.5% was the successful leasing at 8 Centurion and 5 Spartan at Jandakot, which resulted in both of these completed speculative developments now being fully leased. Turning to developments. The total cost of the development pipeline is $269 million across more than 287,000 square meters with projects in Sydney and Perth. Across our committed projects, we have $47 million of remaining spend. Included within this amount is our last mile logistics project in Moorebank, which is expected to achieve practical completion shortly and deliver an attractive yield on cost of 6%. We estimate a further $132 million of capital will be required to build out the landholdings at ASCEND at Jandakot, where we are targeting yields on cost above 6.25%, which will deliver incremental yields of 8% and above. Turning to our development projects. We are proud of our strong development track record and the momentum achieved across our pipeline in Sydney and Perth to drive value for our security holders and improve portfolio quality. This slide provides a snapshot of our 2 recently completed developments at Jandakot, which are now fully leased at an average yield on cost of 6.4%. After activating 4 new projects during the half, we now have 6 active projects at Moorebank and Jandakot, which are expected to deliver yields on cost of 6% and 6.7%, respectively. Pleasingly, 54% of this income is already pre-leased at strong rent levels. A key thematic playing out across the industrial market is the flight to quality, and we are well placed to capture this tenant demand from blue-chip tenants for modern and highly functional warehouses. Turning to market dynamics. The long-term thematic for industrial remains favorable with ongoing demand driven by population growth and increasing e-commerce adoption. Australia's population growth is forecast to be one of the strongest globally, and our online penetration rates continue to lag comparable markets. In the near term, supply levels are expected to remain moderate, impacted by high construction costs as well as planning and servicing delays. For calendar year 2025, supply under construction and planned is expected to remain below pre-COVID average take-up levels across all markets with 42% of this already pre-committed. When you overlay pre-COVID demand levels against this total supply, vacancy for industrial is anticipated to continue to remain low, below historical averages and other global markets. This dynamic bodes well for continued favorable operating conditions. Turning to transaction markets. Industrial transaction volumes, excluding data center transactions, remain robust with 2024 volumes above pre-COVID levels. Industrial assets continue to attract significant interest from a diverse range of global and local investors and remains the preferred sub-asset class amongst APAC commercial real estate investors. Industrial cap rate expansion appears to be stabilizing, which provides further support for valuations and NTA, especially given the potential for rate cuts in the near term. Turning to BTP. We delivered exceptionally strong performance with like-for-like growth of 17.6% and high occupancy maintained following substantial leasing success in FY '24. As in past periods, we've continued to achieve strong retention levels with 93% of space retained or backfilled within 3 months. These factors continue to support a very attractive income yield of above 8%. Turning to our strategic priorities. We aim to deliver long-term value to our security holders. Underpinning the fund's strategy to deliver this are 3 key priority areas. We are focused on driving maximum value out of our assets by executing on asset plans, which are refreshed each year and working in close partnership with our tenants. Some good examples of this include the investment into a smaller suite strategy at BTP, which has appealed to a broad range of tenants, driving higher occupancy and rents, advancing installation of 2.5 megawatts of solar across our network, which will reduce our carbon footprint while also achieving attractive returns on investments and our proven and long-standing track record in delivering leasing outcomes above valuation assumptions, which support NTA growth, while proactive leasing decisions have derisked forward earnings. Our development pipeline is a core differentiator for the fund as we continue to develop warehouses that are highly sought after by tenants. At ASCEND at Jandakot, we are targeting pre-commitments and seeing demand across a range of size requirements. Lastly, we retain a disciplined approach when assessing potential transactions. Our ambition is to become a pure-play industrial REIT. And in line with this, we expect to exit our investment at Brisbane Technology Park over time. Given the structure of the asset, we have the flexibility to divest it as a portfolio or as individual assets. We remain focused on driving performance at the asset and assessing any sale in parallel with capital redeployment opportunities elsewhere. Given market pressures in recent years, it's been challenging to source acquisition opportunities that meet our return requirements. As markets begin to turn, we are in the fortunate position to have the balance sheet that can allow us to act quickly on opportunities as they arise, particularly for assets that are well located in future growth corridors in markets with favorable demand and supply dynamics, are located on the East Coast to balance out our exposure to Western Australia as we continue to build out our landholdings there, and we'll also look at assets that are potential value-add or repositioning plays. In summary, we are well placed to continue to deliver long-term value for investors. Our earnings profile is resilient, and our balance sheet provides us great flexibility to further enhance value. We've demonstrated significant momentum in activating high-quality developments, which enhance our long-term growth and improve portfolio quality. Our securities are currently priced at approximately an 18.1% discount to NTA despite positive valuation outcomes supported by a robust transaction market and our strong balance sheet, which allows us to unlock the embedded value creation opportunities within the portfolio. We reiterate our FY '25 guidance for FFO per security of $0.178, reflecting growth of 2.3% on the prior year and distribution of $0.164, which reflects an attractive distribution yield of approximately 6% for our investors. Thank you for joining the call. I'll now hand back to the moderator for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from David Pobucky from Macquarie Group.

Just the first one around guidance. The first half consensus expectations. So guidance implies that the second half FFO per share is down 4% versus the first half. So I was just curious about the bridge between the first half and the second half, please?

Sure. David. Look, in terms of when you start from a first half perspective, the key movements when you look to the full year in terms of second half impacts will really be directionally in any case, property FFO will be up strongly in the second half, and this really reflects the 3 months of downtime we had at 2 Maker Place, which is our second largest tenant within the portfolio. Developments will have caused a bit of a drag really on the back of delayed development leasing compared to what we expected when we set guidance. Probably the key drag to performance in the second half compared to the first half will be the impact of the hedging book rolling off. The first half benefited from 81% of debt being hedged, whereas the second half only has 58%. We've also seen a slight uptick in the fixed rates between the first half and second half with about a 10 to 20 basis point increase. So that should probably get you to a slightly lower second half versus first half.

That's really clear. The second one for me, just on the balance sheet. Look through gearing, as you've mentioned, is expected to increase to about 30% post the committed pipeline spend. So you've got capacity for the uncommitted pipeline. What else could you do with your balance sheet capacity? Or are you happy sitting towards the lower end of your gearing range?

Well, I guess we've got flexibility. I mean we've got a demonstrable development pipeline with about $180 million of commitments. The committed component of that will push us up to the lower end of our gearing range. And if we -- as we commit the uncommitted component, which is around $130-odd million, that will push us up towards the top end of our range. So we do have capacity to obviously fully fund our development pipeline. We expect that to probably take 4 to 5 years. And if we see attractive opportunities in the external market, we'll definitely look to participate. I mean we are looking at opportunities. We did put an offering on something last year. We were unsuccessful. So we'll really just balance the opportunities based on the level of attractiveness.

And just my final one on the Moorebank development. The estimated yield on cost that you mentioned is 6%. I think at the full year results '24, it was 6% to 6.5%. So if you could just talk to that, please?

Yes. So we -- I mean, at the time that we set that, we were targeting, I guess, rents quite a bit above what our underwrite was. It's been a little bit tough getting tenants to shift from existing locations. And so we've just pared back our expectations to meet the market. And on the back of that, we've just pared back our yield on cost target to 6%, which I think we're on track to deliver.

Your next question comes from Murray Connellan from Moelis Australia.

Just keen to unpack the leasing spreads for the half. We've had another instance of transaction evidence on the rental side being ahead of what the valuers had previously assumed. I guess, would you be able to give a feel for what your internal expectations are for under-renting within the portfolio and how that compares to what the valuers have?

Yes, Murray, I mean, as past periods, we've generally categorized the market or our portfolio as being broadly market rented. I think we've seen evidence of rental growth, particularly on the industrial side and on the industrial component of the portfolio, I would say we're marginally under-rented at this point in time. According to value assumptions, we slightly over-rented at BTP, but continue to -- with really good momentum there. We achieved spreads of close to 12% there for the half and beat value assumptions by about 10% as well. So really good momentum. It's really just a guide, I guess, comparing back to valuation assumptions. And we've now successively over a number of periods outperformed value assumptions, and that's really stood the performance of the portfolio in good stead.

And then I guess, unpacking the outlook for BTP, the vacancy there, obviously pretty tight at the moment. Keen to hear what the rest of the broader market in the south of Brisbane looks like at the moment. And I guess, where that puts you in terms of your bargaining power with potential tenants going forward? Could we see spreads continue to remain positive? Or would that be your expectation? And then I guess, any scope for a lengthening of the WALE as well?

Well, on the WALE argument -- or sorry, on the WALE point rather, we have pushed up WALE to, I think, 3.3 years, which is above where it's historically been, and it's definitely been a shift of ours to try and lengthen WALE. So we'll definitely look to continue with that strategy. When you look at the broader suburban office market, the structural vacancy that was there in the past isn't there. Brisbane is now probably one of the -- is probably the strongest office market in the country, and that's really extended to the suburban markets as well. And I think when you look at this half, with spreads of north of 10% and incentives still very low at around 16-odd percent, it's -- we're getting really good outcomes. And so our hope would be to continue that momentum moving forward.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Korkie for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining the call. I look forward to catching up with many of you in the coming weeks. Thank you.