Diös Fastigheter AB (publ) (DIOS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Dios Interim Report January to September 2025. My name is Brika, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to your host, Johan Dernmar, Chief Investor Relations Officer, to begin. So please go ahead, Johan.

Good morning, and welcome to Dios Q3 2025 Result Presentation focusing on the period July through September. My name is Johan Dernmar. I'm Chief Investor Relations Officer. I'm joined today by CEO, David Carlsson; and CFO, Rolf Larsson. In today's presentation, we'll begin with a brief overview of our third quarter performance, followed by a deep dive into the financial result. We will then provide a market outlook and conclude with a Q&A session. Thank you for joining us. And with that, I hand over to David.

Thank you, Johan, and good morning all. Our focus is clear and simple. We aim to increase revenues, reduce costs and make profitable investments. This quarter confirms we're on the right track. Despite the challenging economic climate, our occupancy rate remained stable at 90%. Leasing activity remains strong with several major deals in central locations contributing positively to both cash flow and property values. At the same time, we continue to divest assets at book value, strengthening our balance sheet and confirming liquidity in the market. Financing conditions remains favorable with lower margins and declining average interest rates. We have some one-off costs related to bond buy-backs of SEK 5 million affecting net financial item for the quarter that will have positive impact on net financial items coming quarters. The past decade of near-0 interest rates enabled the real estate sector to prioritize growth through acquisitions and new developments, often at the expense of operational excellence and organic value creation. Our strategic focus is toward the fundamentals of property management and building strong, sustainable cash flows. Over the past 18 months, we have actively rotated assets to strengthen our portfolio, positioning it for long-term value creation. This transformation supports our updated financial targets, which emphasize profitability, resilience and capital efficiency. To clarify our commitment to long-term profitable growth, the Board has adopted new financial targets, rotating from return on equity of 12% annually, we aim to increase our income from property management per share by 10% annually while also growing our net asset value expressed as EPRA NRV per share by 10% per year. These are ambitious, yet entirely achievable goals, reflecting the value creation potential we see in the company today. This includes, among other things, strategically located vacancies that offer strong upside. Our market has shown resilience in the face of rent increases driven by CPI adjustments. We continue to see solid payment capacity among tenants, and our portfolio is well aligned with demand. We own the right properties to capture payment willingness through a relevant and competitive offering, an important factor in achieving our financial goals. In addition, our climate target to half CO2 equivalent emissions by 2030 remains firmly in place, underscoring our commitment to sustainable value creation. Looking ahead, our strategy is built on three pillars: one, operational excellence, driving NOI growth through active management and cost control; two, selective development and reinvestment, focusing on projects with signed leases and strong tenant demand; three, disciplined capital allocation, ensuring every investment contributes to long-term value and supports our financial targets. While the targets are challenging, they are well within reach given our current position, strategic direction and the strength of our underlying assets. The direction is set, and now it's all about execution. Rolf, please give us some more insights to the results.

Thank you, David. So let's get deeper into the result outcome. Rental income increased by 5% and the economic occupancy rate was 90% compared to 91% last year. The change is mainly explained by the divestment of fully let residential properties and completed new construction, which has created short-term market vacancies and some major vacancies occurring in Q2 that now have full impact. We can see that vacancies have been unchanged during the first 3 quarters of the year. Our assessment is that the market has bottomed out and that we see more positive rental market going forward, but the recovery will take a little longer than we previously assumed. Property costs are slightly higher compared to last year, mainly due to property acquisitions and one-off cost of SEK 3 million related to potential projects that have been canceled. All in all, this means that the operating surplus for the quarter increases by 5%, which corresponds to a surplus ratio of 74%. Financial costs are SEK 10 million higher compared to last year. The reason is higher debt and that we have redeemed bonds early and taken the redemption cost upfront, which has affected the quarter's financial cost with a total of SEK 5 million. Income from property management increases by 3% to SEK 267 million. We have had slightly positive value changes regarding properties, and I will come back to this later. Despite the higher taxable result this year, current tax is lower due to nonrecurring items last year in connection with divestment of properties. Our well-diversified portfolio has strengthened the resilience of our top line. With 32% of our rental income derived from public sector tenants, we have a solid foundation for passing on CPI adjustments. And we see that we can defend and increase our rental levels in connection with renegotiations and new lettings. Notably, 98% of all commercial lease agreements included indexation clauses with 95% specifically tied to CPI. Like-for-like rental income increased by 0.9%, thanks to positive new lettings, and we continue to experience strong demand for premises in central locations and expect continued positive development. With lower financing costs to come and a more optimistic economic outlook for Sweden, we see great potential in our rental growth, both when it comes to rent reversion, a continued increased occupancy rate and creating modern and effective offices in prime locations. As the market leader with local management and being in a company with a strong cash flow, we have a competitive advantage over many other real estate companies in our cities. Net letting has been positive in 25 of the last 27 quarters, including SEK 1 million this quarter. The offices role as a brand builder and meeting place is becoming increasingly clear. We continue to see a strong trend that tenants are looking for attractive locations and that the willingness to pay is high for modern and efficient premises. Vacancies are much lower in central location in our cities, where we are well positioned, which means that the resilience of our portfolio is high. Currently, several dialogues are underway with the existing and new tenants at good levels. We have a low tenant concentration risk. Our 10 largest tenants of which 6 are tax finance accounts for 20% of our total rental income with a WAULT of 5.1 years and the WAULT for the whole portfolio is stable at 3.6 years. The market value of our properties amounted to SEK 32.8 billion. During the quarter, we have invested just over SEK 200 million in projects. 90% of the property portfolio has been externally valued in Q3. During the quarter, we have adjusted the inflation assumption from 1.5% to 1%, which has negatively affected the market value by SEK 100 million. The negative effect of the changed inflation assumption is offset by strong cash flow, thanks to new leases, resulting in a positive unrealized change in value of SEK 16 million during the quarter. The average yield was 6.14%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter. The change is explained by new leases, changing the estimated yield requirement at property level. And we see that our transactions are made at book value, which supports our view that our property values are at fair value. As I said earlier, we have invested just over SEK 200 million in tenant adoptions and new builds. There is low risk in our major projects requirement and most of the rental income comes from tax finance operations. All new commercial projects are built according to BREEAM at least level very good. And we currently have around 21,000 square meters under construction with a total investment volume of SEK 730 million, with remaining investment amount to SEK 370 million. All our ongoing projects are proceeding according to plan, both in terms of cost and time. In addition, we have around 270,000 square meters of existing and possible building rights, where we see great potential for further value creation. 54% refers to commercial premises and the remaining to residentials. Going forward, we will prioritize tenant adoptions and in addition, new builds where we have stable tenants and long lease agreements. At the beginning of July, we issued 2- and 3-year bonds of a total of SEK 850 million and at the same time, redeemed bonds maturing in May and October next year, corresponding to SEK 450 million. And as I said earlier, we have taken the redemption cost upfront, which has affected the quarter's financial cost with a total of SEK 5 million. In the next 12 months, we will have additional loan maturities, excluding commercial paper of SEK 2.6 billion, which corresponds to 14% of interest-bearing liabilities. And we're actively working for a more prudent maturity profile with longer debt maturities. Bank financing is and will be our most important source of financing, and we currently have 69% of our outstanding loans with banks. We have a very good dialogue with all our banks, and they are clearly willing to join our growth journey and offer us good terms. The margin on a 3-year bank loan is currently around 120 basis points. And a 3-year bond has a margin of 150 basis points, which is 25 basis points lower than 3 months ago. Our average interest rate at the end of the period was 4% and the trend of lower interest rates continues as the marginal cost of debt is still lower than our average cost of debt. This will have a positive impact on our income from property management when refinancing and taking out new loans. We have 69% of our financing in banks, SEK 2.4 billion in unused credit facilities and a secured loan-to-value of 39%. We will also add additional borrowing capacity through completed projects. This, together with good relationships with our banks, makes us feel comfortable about future refinancing. We have a conservative balance sheet approach, which reflects our commitment to financial prudence and risk mitigation. During the past year, we have reduced our financial risk and improved our key financial figures through divestments and a more cautious strategy regarding new major projects. This, together with a strong cash flow and available liquidity means that we now see opportunities for growth, which primarily means an increased volume of tenant adaptions and acquisitions. And as we have mentioned earlier, in October, we sold all our properties in order for SEK 660 million, and we will use the proceeds to amortize debt to create space for profitable investments. And we will also continue to divest noncore properties. Yet again, I feel comfortable with our current financial position and action taken. Our strong cash flow will serve operating expenses, committed CapEx and further growth. And I will now leave the word back to David.

Thank you, Rolf. Northern Sweden is experiencing a wave of investments tied to the green transition, a shift that is not only vital for Sweden's climate goals, but also for its global competitiveness in delivering high quality, fossil-free products. We're seeing new industrial facilities being built to refine natural resources and into sustainable outputs alongside energy infrastructure, transport upgrades and housing developments. These investments are grounded in strong long-term fundamentals, access to clean, affordable energy from hydropower and wind, a cold climate that supports energy efficiency and based land areas available for development. At the same time, we are observing several structural shifts in the broader market. One clear trend in the wake of the economic downturn is the resilience of regional cities, which we -- which have outperformed larger metropolitan areas in terms of stability and tenant demand. This is particularly relevant given the limited pipeline of new commercial developments in the coming years, which will constrain supply and support rental levels in well-positioned assets. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, our recent transactions demonstrate strong liquidity in the market and confirms that our book values are well aligned with market pricing. During the third quarter, we completed several major lease agreements that positively impacted both net leasing and property values. Notable transactions include Clear Street in Umea, 1,200 square meters; Academedia in Gavle, 2,300 square meters; Bonnier and AFRY in Ostersund, 2,100 square meters; and Kronofogden in Gavle, 1,500 square meters. A common denominator across all these deals is the demand for modern premises and central locations. At the same time, we see lease terminations primarily driven by tenants directly or indirectly relocating to newly completed developments. These moves are often motivated by the pursuit of more efficient premises, and they occur both within our own portfolio and to competitors within city districts and from peripheral areas to more central ones. This dynamic is an effect of slightly higher market vacancy. Importantly, tenant payment capacity is not a limiting factor in our cities, given the relatively low rental levels. What we do observe, however, is a growing willingness to pay for the right space in the right location. The trend remains clear. Tenants are leaving outer areas in favor of central well-connected properties with 95% of our portfolio located in A and B locations, we are well positioned to capture this movement. Occupancy and portfolio impact. We're seeing that the turnaround in occupancy ratio is taking slightly longer than we initially anticipated. While we continue to close strong deals to attractive levels, the ongoing relocations to new developments are delaying improvements in key metrics. Given the size of our property portfolio, it naturally takes time for these metrics to strengthen. Still, the fundamentals are in place, and we're seeing positive momentum. The lease mentioned above carry an average gross yield-on-cost of over 9%, contributing positively to property values by approximately SEK 60 million. Despite the downward adjustment in our CPI assumptions for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.0%, which negatively affects property values by around SEK 100 million, we still achieved positive unrealized value changes of SEK 16 million for the quarter. This becomes particularly relevant in light of the limited pipeline of new commercial developments expected in the coming years across all our cities. This environment will constrain supply and in turn, support rental levels for well-positioned assets. We're also seeing clear patterns in the behavior of public sector tenants across Sweden. Demand remains stable, especially for modern centrally located premises. Government agencies and municipal operations continue to prioritize accessibility, energy efficiency and long-term functionality. In October, we divested our portfolio in Are – six fully leased retail and office properties for SEK 660 million. Over the past few years, we've actively developed the assets, reaching a strong occupancy rate of 98%. However, given the portfolio's relatively small scale, the surplus ratio remains low. This creates an opportunity to reallocate capital to larger assets and markets, where we benefit from economies of scale and greater long-term value potential, such as last year's acquisitions in Lulea and Gavle for SEK 940 million or Umea earlier this year for SEK 1.6 billion. The Are transaction was completed at book value, consistent with all our divestments this year. In total, we've sold or signed agreements for approximately SEK 1.6 billion, all at or above book value. This is a clear sign of strength, confirming the accuracy of our valuations and the liquidity in the market. We have a unique position. Our property portfolio is concentrated in attractive locations to meet the current demand of central, modern and flexible premises. The Are strength lies in our local presence combined with the company size, which creates economies of scale in terms of expertise, favorable financing conditions and investment capacity. This provides competitive advantages that few other companies in Northern Sweden have. Our business model is future-proof at low risk. With primarily A location in regional cities that are benefiting from urbanization, our premises have great yield resilience. We aim to make sustainable investments in our portfolio to minimize our carbon footprint and future-proof of our assets. We're currently making very good deals through our reductions and renovations. The gross yield on costs for our ongoing investments is on average 9%, which also leads to an increase in value. With an improved economic outlook, we expect the volume of tenant adaptations to increase. We have a top-of-the-line cash flow generation from our business. With prime location assets on a running yield at 5.6% and financing cost at investment-grade levels, we are generating strong and predictable cash flow. Our operations demonstrate stable performance. We have observed significant resilience among our tenants throughout the recent economic cycle with few bankruptcies and low rent losses. The real estate market in general also shows stability with property values being less volatile than in metropolitan areas. Our cash flow is not only higher than many other regions, but also more stable. Looking forward, we are well positioned in our cities to meet market needs, demand and emerging trends. Our strong local presence, combined with advantages of scale in terms of capital access and investment capacity gives us a solid foundation to drive organic growth. At the same time, we continue to make value-creating investments and with stabilizing vacancies, we believe this will have a positive impact on property values. Our own transactions confirm the market valuations as we've constantly sold properties at or above book value. We will continue to grow by acquiring properties with potential assets that complete -- complements our existing portfolio and are in regions with strong growth prospects. Now with some more firepower, we're seeking opportunities to deploy capital. We will also continue to divest properties that are not part of our core strategy where we see limited development potential. With more optimistic economic outlook for Sweden, I'm very confident in Dios as a company and in our ability to deliver sustainable long-term returns in line or above our new financial targets. That concludes my part. I will now hand back to Johan.

Thank you, David. Thank you, Rolf, for the insights. We are now opening up the floor for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first phone line question we have comes from Oscar Lindquist with ABG Sundal Collier.

So firstly, I wonder if you could sort of bridge rental income Q2 to Q3 in regards to contribution from the acquisition you exceeded in June last quarter?

Yes. On an overall basis, the rental income has benefit from the acquisition 1st of June, where we bought for SEK 1.6 billion in Umea at around the yield of 6%. On the other side, we sold the fully let property, Mimer 1 in Borlange at the last of June. And with that also taking on some vacancies in Q2 that will roll over and get full effect in Q3. So all in all, we have some positive effect from this acquisition and some negative effects from vacancies in Q2. Is that enough?

Could you quantify those contributors?

I can try. Approximately the divestment was, on an annual basis, around SEK 42 million in income. And let's see the number, and around almost double, I'd say, around SEK 120 million on an annual basis for the acquisition. And then we had a couple of millions in increased vacancies.

Okay. And then secondly, on your financial targets to grow income from property management by 10% and NRV by 10% per year. Could you give sort of a bridge or how you expect to reach that target on an annual basis?

Yes, David here. We have now around 2% more vacancies than 3 years ago. And that's an asset and a possibility for us. So it's renting out the vacancies that are now positioned in central locations in the cities, we have successfully rotated our assets. So the vacancies that has been coming up now after the pandemic and the economic downturn is low rents in the localities and the possibility to make good deals and rent it out, so we see as we reported -- as I mentioned in the CEO report, we're making good deals with good returns on the investments on those vacancies. So that's the way to go. And reduced cost of [Audio Gap].

Yes. And on letting activity in the market, how would you say it has changed, say, before and after the summer?

Yes. It's taking up pace, as we pressed 4 new leases in the last 2 months in the high scale and we have over SEK 60 million newly signed leases this quarter, that's almost a double from Q2. So we see that the rental market is picking up pace, and we're doing good deals. But we're seeing that it's going to take some more time to show in the numbers of the occupancy rate. So we see 2 or 3 quarters from now, we're having this flat state that we are now.

And on your press releases here, should we expect you to have a positive net letting in Q4?

We're not guiding on that one, so -- and we have just started the quarter, so I can't answer that.

[Operator Instructions] We now have Viktor Hokenhammar with Pareto Securities on the line.

Sorry, I was a bit late in the call, but regarding the Are divestment, are you actively looking to divest other portfolios in other cities like over the next year-or-so?

Yes, David here. We have our noncore assets that were listed that we're open for discussion and divesting if the right opportunities arise. And we are also looking all the time to divest and invest all the time. So we have a lot of discussions on the run, but nothing that we can communicate today.

No, of course. Perfect. That's clear. And are you a net buyer or seller within the next months, if you say the next 6 months-or-so?

That's -- we're always having -- we're just having discussions all the time. We have both on the buy side and the sell side, so it's hard to say if we're going to get through with the deals on the buy side or sell side. So a few months, it's hard to say exactly if we're a net seller or a net buyer. But we have this over 2% on the LTV in space to invest and then we have a strong cash flow so we can invest in. So we're going to be a net buyer in the long run, and we're not passing 55.

And then more like a general question, how you and the Board view like capital allocation in terms of -- we have the upcoming dividend suggestion now in Q4, potential sharebacks maybe given the discount to NAV and also you mentioned the good return on investments in your existing portfolio. Can you please elaborate a bit on the capital allocation over the next year?

Yes, Johan here. On the share buybacks, there is a mandate from the Board, of course, to always look over the possibility to buyback shares. At the current levels, we see that the investment in the standing portfolio returning at good levels. So for the long run, as long as we find investment opportunities in our portfolio and for our tenants, our take is that the Board will, at these levels, prioritize organic growth instead of share buybacks. So that's where we stand on capital allocations right now.

And then maybe a final question regarding the vacancy. You report like even numbers, not with decimals, et cetera. Can you provide some details on the effect of increasing vacancies, as you mentioned in late Q2, how much of that affected -- like how much of the increased vacancies affects the rental income bridge, if you can say so?

Sorry, the line was a bit blurry. Could you take the question again on vacancy?

Yes, sorry, absolutely. So I asked about the rental bridge, and I understand that you have some both projects and divestments and acquisitions. But what's like the -- can you provide some more detail on the vacancy effects of the rental income bridge from Q2 to this quarter?

It's quite flat, but we have this effect by the -- sold fully let high school building in Borlange and now in Q4, 97% let buildings in [indiscernible] coming quarter.

We're selling assets that are on a higher occupancy ratio than the standing portfolio. So the transaction will have a negative effect on the reported occupancy ratio.

We currently have no further phone questions. So I'd like to hand it back to management for the webcast questions.

Thank you. We have some written questions, and I will try to summarize them. The first questions are around occupancy rate and it's more or like is there a structural vacancy in the market that limit the occupancy rate to 90%, 91%. I will take that one first.

Okay. David, I can answer that. No, we see no structural shift in the occupancy rate, and we see that the vacancies for us is an asset to use a potential, so we are -- as I said earlier on another question, we constantly rotated our portfolio to more central located assets that have high demand. So there's no structural shift that we should stay at 90%, 91% in the long run.

Great. And I think the second question we've answered around where we see a stabilized occupancy and when the market has bottomed out, when will we see increased occupancy ratio, and to repeat that is -- we see that the market has bottomed out. We see some 2 or 3 quarters at stable levels like-for-like. But as we communicated the deals that we press released are coming into force, we could expect the vacancies to be reduced. And one question about CapEx and tenant adoption in new builds. And will you see an acceleration in your project starts from here going forward? And to answer that one, we have investment capacity. And as David mentioned, there is -- there's a willingness for us to invest for our tenants, but also mentioned on the call that we were not looking for new builds in the current market. So we will focus more on tenant adoptions and transactions rather than new builds and new constructions at this point. So that was all the written questions, and we would like to say thank you for listening in, and please reach out to us. The contact details are in the presentation. So with that, I would like to end this call and wish you all a pleasant Friday. Thank you.

Thank you. I can confirm that does conclude today's call with Dios. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect, and please enjoy the records.