Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 17, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Real Estate Specialized REITs conference_presentation 87 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

A. William Stein

executive
#1

Good afternoon, everyone. I am Bill Stein, CEO of Digital Realty and Nareit's 2020 Chair. Welcome to REITworld 2020. I want to thank all of you for attending this year's virtual event and I also want to recognize our sponsors who help make this event possible, especially our platinum sponsors, Barclays and Stifel. This year's REITworld is taking place in the 60th anniversary year of the REIT industry. 60 years ago, President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed legislation that held the promise of making the benefits of real estate investment available to all investors, large and small. Today, that promise has been realized. Approximately 145 million Americans live in the roughly 43% of American households that own REIT stocks, directly or indirectly through mutual funds, ETFs or target-date funds. REITs have also taken hold globally and today, 40 countries have their own REIT programs and initiatives. The 60th year of our industry's history has been a challenging one not only for our industry but also for our entire country and the world. The COVID-19 pandemic has gripped nations around the globe, taking lives and hampering economies. Our hearts go out to all of those who have suffered the loss of family members and friends and to those who have lost their jobs and businesses. Throughout this challenging year, Nareit has worked to support our industry and those who depend on it. I want to thank Steve and the entire Nareit team for the outstanding job that they have done in leading this effort. Our policy and politics team stayed on the job. They reached out to members of Congress and their staffs, advocating for congressional solutions that would provide relief for our industry's tenants, helping them pay rent, retain employees and continue delivering paychecks. Our investor outreach program also continued on pace. Through video conferences, our investor outreach team maintained our dialogue with investors. In the first 3 quarters of this year, they conducted nearly 500 meetings with organizations representing more than $80 trillion of assets. 2020 has been a year that shined a light on racism in America and for many sparked a reevaluation of how we deal with issues of diversity, equity and inclusion in the institutions of our society. Once again, Nareit is addressing this issue head on. 4 years ago, Nareit established our dividends through diversity, equity and inclusion program to find ways to encourage diversity, equity and inclusion in our industry. Now I am very pleased to announce that we are taking another important step forward. We are forming Nareit's Dividends Through Diversity, Equity & Inclusion CEO Council. To begin, this body is made up of 29 REIT CEOs. Collectively, they represent every segment of our industry. Our mission is to address at the highest levels the key issues and opportunities related to diversity, equity and inclusion in the REIT industry. It will provide Nareit's leadership with recommendations to help advance the associations and the industry's progress in this crucial area. I am honored to serve as one of the 3 Co-Chairs of this council, joined by Tom Baltimore of Park Hotels and Debbie Cafaro of Ventas. Tom and Debbie, I look forward to partnering with you and Nareit to help further mobilize our industry to lead positive change. You'll be hearing more about Nareit's effort to support diversity, equity and inclusion in the REIT industry going forward. It has been an honor to represent the REIT industry this year as Nareit's Chair. Now it's time for me to pass the torch to your 2021 Nareit Chair. Jim Risoleo and I have been friends for more than 30 years. In fact, I would not be standing on this virtual podium were it not for Jim, who offered me my first job in commercial real estate 31 years ago. It's going to be a pleasure to work with Jim as I hand this torch back to him -- or over to him. Please welcome Jim, President, CEO and Director of Host Hotels & Resorts. Jim, would you please join me?

James Risoleo

attendee
#2

Thank you, Bill. Is it really 30 years, 31 years? That's hard to believe, isn't it?

A. William Stein

executive
#3

And on going.

James Risoleo

attendee
#4

And going up, we've been through a few challenges and downturns over the years starting 31 years ago whenever Bill and I fought the S&L crisis. So we have a new crisis that we're fighting today and we're going to talk about that a little later. But thanks very much, Bill. And I would also like to welcome everyone to REITworld 2020. We have the pleasure now of announcing the winners of 2 awards. The Nareit Industry Achievement Award and the Nareit Industry Leaders Award. For nearly 3 decades, Nareit has presented these awards to members of the REIT community who have made exceptional contributions to our industry and to the [indiscernible].

A. William Stein

executive
#5

The E. Lawrence Miller Achievement Award is presented annually to professionals whose insight and integrity have helped build awareness and understanding for the value of REITs and publicly traded real estate. The award is given in memory of the past Nareit Chair, Lawrence Miller, who served as CEO of one of our industry's first REITs, Bradley Real Estate Trust. This year, we take great pleasure in presenting this award to Michael Bilerman, who, in my opinion, is truly an industry icon. Michael is a Managing Director at Citi and leads the firm's global real estate investment research practice. He also heads the U.S. real estate and lodging team, which covers more than 90 real estate lodging and equity real estate securities. Michael and the Citi team have consistently been ranked as the top research team in external client polls. This year, the Citi REIT and lodging team was ranked #1 in the REIT category of the Institutional Investor All-American Research Team survey for the fifth straight year and Michael was ranked the #1 REIT analyst. Michael is known not only for the quality of his research but also for his contributions to the betterment of our industry through his participation in real estate industry organizations. He is a cabinet member of Nareit's Real Estate Investment Advisory Council and he's also a member of the FTSE NAREIT Index Advisory Committee. And he has consistently been supportive in providing Nareit with perspective on the investment communities to support our investor outreach programs. For his leadership in building understanding for REITS and advocating for our industry, we are pleased to present the E. Lawrence Miller achievement award to Michael Bilerman.

Michael Bilerman

attendee
#6

Thank you, Bill, and thank you, Jim, for being here as well. I really appreciate those kind words. And I do hope everyone out there, your families, your friends, colleagues are all doing well amidst this COVID-19 pandemic. And I'm extremely honored and grateful to be this year's Industry Achievement Award recipient. Now I started in this industry in 1998, straight out of McGill University in Montreal, Canada, with no background in real estate. I was offered an investment banking job at Goldman Sachs and had the choice of health care, M&A or the real estate group. Now as a 22-year-old, this was my decision-making process, and I'm not sure I would suggest this to anybody, but I'm terrified in needles and hospitals so health care came off the table. I knew investment banking was going to be tough but I heard the M&A group was notoriously very difficult. And then there was this real estate group which had a great group of people and the firm had just completed the largest REIT IPO at the time. So my decision was made. Now while my career started as an investment banker, I became a sell-side research analyst in 2002. And I remember being in London with one my mentors, Todd Eagle, and the opportunity to move to research came up. And Todd thought I would be a great analyst because I asked a lot of questions, I actually enjoyed reading 10-Qs and 10-Ks and I wasn't shy about offering my opinions. And so Steve Wexler, I know you're out there somewhere, I'm thankful you appreciate all the time and insights that we've provided to Nareit and the industry over the years, whether those are solicited or usually sometimes unsolicited. And to all the companies out there, I want to thank you, too, for your support and time, especially when we may provide our views and opinion even if you're not asking for it. When I moved to the sell-side in 2002, I had the pleasure to learn from David Kostin at Goldman Sachs and then Jon Litt, who hired me at Citi in 2004. And both of them fostered a team-based culture, collaborating together to drive success. And there's little doubt in my mind that my personal success has been driven by my colleagues and my teammates. I'm a firm believer that we thrive as a team, and I couldn't be more proud to share this moment with each of them, those that are on our team today and those that have moved on and pursued some really amazing opportunities. When I look through all the list of CEOs and industry leaders who have received this award in the past, it's really a quite humbling experience. Each person on these lists have helped shape and grow our industry. Many people are those that I've looked up to my whole career and have provided me with the opportunities to advance. And to be recognized alongside of them is really a wonderful honor and I'm really thankful to be included. And I absolutely love being part of this industry, working with our dedicated, collaborative and hard-working team to drive an increased understanding and awareness of the REIT sector, the companies, the investors, the opportunities and the risks. And looking back at my last 23 years, I feel extraordinarily fortunate to have chosen the real estate and REIT industry for my career. We've now been through 3 major cycles since the dawn of the modern REIT era, including the tech wreck in the late '90s, early 2000s, the GFC and now the COVID-19 pandemic. And listed real estate and the REITs have performed well against those difficult times. We've also had the pleasure to watch REIT being added the S&P 500 in the early 2000s, waves of M&A and transaction activity, REITs being broken out as their own GICS sector in 2016, improved diversity and governance within our sector and a sea change in the property sector composition of the REIT index. I'm so thankful to all of the institutional investors who have provided us the feedback, who have challenged us and who have attended all of our events. And I know we're all really eager again to be in person, and I can't wait to celebrate with all of you at Citi's next Global Property CEO Conference. Lastly, I know my family is out there somewhere in virtual land. Sorry that you can't be -- we can't be doing this in person. My parents, my in-laws, my kids and my wife [ Carin ], who I've been with since 1996, so she too has actually grown up in this industry and likely would win any REIT jeopardy game, granted she's still pretty upset at me that we went on a property tour during our honeymoon in 2004. And I couldn't end this without a musical reference. So in the vein of Canada's Bachman-Turner Overdrive, you ain't seen nothing yet. I feel like we've only begun. So thank you again to Bill, to Jim, to Steve, Board of Governors, my colleagues, everyone who I've had the pleasure too of working with. Thank you.

James Risoleo

attendee
#7

Michael, congratulations. Well -- very well-deserved. I wish we could be doing this in person. And hopefully, the next time we meet, hopefully it's next June, in person, we can raise the glass to your success. So thanks for everything you do for Nareit and our industry. I have the honor of now presenting the Edward H. Linde Leadership Award. This award is named in recognition of the leadership that Ed Linde, the late CEO of Boston Properties, provided to our industry. The award is presented to a REIT executive who has made significant and lasting contributions to the growth and betterment of the REIT marketplace. This year, we are delighted to present it to Connie Moore, former President and CEO of BRE Properties and Nareit's 2009 Chair. Connie has spent more than 40 years in the real estate industry and she was one of the first women in the industry to hold top-level executive positions. In her career, she has been a true trailblazer. From 1993 to 2002, she was Managing Director of Security Capital Group and affiliates. During those years, when the publicly listed equity REIT industry was being established, Security Capital played a key role as an incubator company that prepared real estate investment firms to go public as REITs. Some of those fledgling REITs became leading names in today's industry. Names like Prologis and Regency Centers. Connie then served as President and CEO of BRE Properties from 2005 until its merger with Essex Property Trust in 2014, building it into one of the industry's leading multifamily REITs. [Audio Gap] programs like dividends through diversity, equity and inclusion. For her steadfast support and numerous contributions to our industry, we are pleased to present this year's Edward H. Linde Leadership Award to Connie Moore.

Constance Moore

attendee
#8

Jim and Bill, thank you so much for that very kind introduction. I think we're breaking up a little bit, so I'll try to keep this a little bit short. But it's interesting listening and first of all, congratulations to Michael as well. I remember when Michael started in the industry. My story is a little bit longer than his. I started with BRE actually the first time in 1977. So I've been around -- not quite the 60 years that REIT's been around - that Nareit's been around, but close, close. And it's been a terrific industry for me as I look back at the leaders who have received this award, many of whom I worked for, most of whom I knew, and they have provided me both the sponsorship and the mentorship for my own leadership journey. And so I'm so appreciative of that. And I'm really appreciative of Nareit's leadership during times of crisis. When you think about my -- when I served as Nareit Chair in 2009, we were -- we had another crisis. And Nareit has always been there to lead all of us, all of its members through these crises and we're certainly doing that today. But for me, it's been, I think, as Bill said, the promise of Nareit has really come -- and REITs in general -- have really come full circle, I think. I'm not sure it's that little 21-year old in 1977. I couldn't have imagined where REITs would be today. We were small. We were managed very differently in those days. And we've really grown up and we are now really -- we're a force to be reckoned with, I think. And so it's really to the leadership of the people that were before me and the many that will continue to follow me in this terrific organization and business. I'm a little like Michael, I too love REITs. It's really all I've ever done. And I think we serve a purpose and we serve a purpose for not only our shareholders but our associates and the communities that we work in. And so I am so proud to be honored in this way. I'm very humbled because, like I said, I've -- certainly I know a lot of the people since 1992 who have received this award and so I'm very honored that you've selected me this year. And I hope that you have a great Nareit 2020. I'm missing all of you. I can't say I missed the -- at the analyst calls, Michael, but I do miss seeing all of you and enjoy serving on One REIT, today's the Columbia Property Trust. So I'm thrilled to be continuing to be a part of Nareit. And again, I just want to thank you all so much. I am very humbled for this support.

James Risoleo

attendee
#9

Great. Connie, congratulations and again, hope to see you in person sometime soon. One more award to present today and it goes to Mr. Stein. Bill, Nareit would like to present this final Service Award to you in recognition of your exceptional and tireless work is our 2020 Chair. Your dedication to our industry is greatly appreciated and we can't thank you now for your service this past year.

A. William Stein

executive
#10

Thank you very much, Jim and Steve. And congratulations once again, Michael and Connie. This is a great honor. It's been an interesting year, to say the least. Jim, I wish you all the best in 2021. It's been a pleasure serving with you on the Host Board and through our shared experiences over the past 31 years and working with you at Host. There's no doubt that you have a unique combination of grit and wisdom that will benefit Nareit over the coming year just as it has benefited Host since you began working there. Thank you again for this honor.

James Risoleo

attendee
#11

Bill, thank you very much for those kind words. We have had a challenging year and as we move forward, we will hear from a terrific group of folks who are on our panel to talk about the way forward. So I am truly honored to have the opportunity to serve all of you in our industry as Nareit's 2021 Chair. As I begin my term, I just want to once again reiterate that Bill put in an extraordinary year and I want to thank him one more time for his leadership and dedication. Bill you've left some very large shoes to fill. And it's clear that the year ahead will present ongoing challenges for us. COVID-19 will continue to cast a long shadow over the economy and our industry. We got some good news this week in the last 1.5 weeks or so with the Moderna clinical trial and the Pfizer trial, and we are looking forward to both of those vaccines being approved, assuming that they're safe, and getting them rolled out to the public just as soon as we can because that clearly is going to help control the pandemic and allow some semblance of normalcy to return to the country, notwithstanding that COVID-19 has already had a massive impact on our society. It's changed the way we work, the way we shop and even where we choose to live. This meeting says it all. I mean I would much rather be seeing all of you in person. And as you might know, we we're about 15 minutes late getting started due to technology, so I don't think the world is switching to virtual anytime soon. I think in-person meetings and conversations are very important. That said, the changes that we're experiencing today will be with us for some time to come and Nareit will work to find ways to ease the economic stress they have placed on tenants and landlords. We will be reaching out to members of Congress, including new members who will be taking office in the year ahead, to seek their support for legislative solutions. We will be explaining to them the importance of REITs to investors, to communities and to our national economy while we're building understanding among policymakers of the contributions of our industry, which supports 2.4 million full-time jobs and $148.2 billion of labor income. The massive economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic also has made the entire business community more aware of the need for a federally backed business continuity insurance program that would reduce the economic impact of a future pandemic. Nareit has joined with other business organizations across a range of industries to form The Business Continuity Coalition to advocate with policymakers for a public-private partnership that would make business continuity insurance available and affordable. In the year ahead, I will also be supporting Nareit's efforts to promote diversity, equity and in conclusion throughout our industry, including as a member of Nareit's new Dividends Through Diversity, Equity & Inclusion CEO Council. And I look forward to supporting a continued aggressive investor outreach program. We have a strong story to tell to the investment community. REITs remain a highly efficient way to invest in the real estate asset class, providing income diversification and strong long-term total returns. I want to turn now to our panel discussion. Through the COVID-19 economy and beyond, I'm pleased to introduce the 4 distinguished REITs CEOs who make up our panel. They are Victor Coleman of Hudson Pacific Properties, whose office portfolio is located in West Coast markets; Susan Givens of New Senior Investment Group, whose portfolio of senior living properties extends throughout the U.S.; Brian Kingston of Brookfield Property Partners, which owns and manages a diverse portfolio of office, retail and other properties; and Mark Parrell of Equity Residential, one of the largest multi-family landlords. Welcome, everyone, and thank you all for joining us.

James Risoleo

attendee
#12

So let's begin with a question at the top of everyone's mind today. What is the outlook for economic growth and recovery from the damage caused by the pandemic? I'll pass the question in this way, what do you anticipate for U.S. economic growth in this quarter and next year? And why don't we start with Victor?

Victor Coleman

attendee
#13

Well, first of all, thank you and hello to all my fellow panelists. It's a pleasure to be here under these unique circumstances, but at least we can spend some time together. Listen, your question is fully loaded and I know each of us have different thoughts and processes as to what's going on. I would take sort of a second and then just chat a little bit about where I see the desire before I see the growth. I think the desire is on everybody's lips. It's exactly the same. There's a lot of naysayers around our industry about work from home and the world is going to change and it's going to change forever. Forever is a long time. And I think we all know that this recovery and the growth prospects going forward for next year is going to be predicated on one thing and one thing only, which is going to be this vaccination and the security blanket whether people take it or not or whether a vaccination is going to come in play. And this is a young person's recovery, young people who want to be interactive, young people who want to work together. They want to be onboarded properly, they want to be recognized. And as a result, we who've been in this industry a long time are going to follow the footsteps of them and help support that process and get people back to some level of normality, which is exactly what you're referring to. I think, listen, the markets are ahead of where the growth prospects are. The markets are clearly giving us indications that growth is around the corner in '21 but absolutely in '22. The VC capital raised in the last 2 quarters, it was the second-highest of all time. And as a result, you're going to see that capital being deployed in '21 and '22 on not just start-ups but second- and third-iteration companies with growth prospects which is going to fuel employment. We've got a lot of people who need jobs and a lot of people who want jobs. We've got a lot of markets that need to see growth prospects around that. And I, for one, am very optimistic that you're going to see economic growth on the positive level throughout the United States but specifically in the markets that are going to be dictated around tech, around media, around biotech, around other aspects of growth businesses that we've seen have always been the leaders to marketplaces going forward. So I think the return of this going forward is going to be something that's going to be sketchy at the early levels. And yes, we're all going to jump on the fact that positive news is going to be good news, and I'm optimistic that, that growth prospect is going to be good going forward.

James Risoleo

attendee
#14

Great. When do you -- Victor, we'll just stay with this for a second. When do you think we see a return to the pre-pandemic growth rate, rate of growth? And I think we know what the big milestones are to getting there but from your perspective, what are they?

Victor Coleman

attendee
#15

Listen, I'm hopeful that we see positive growth second half of '21. I know a lot of people sort of -- it's an interesting conversation, right? Because everybody wants to be as far out as possible to make themselves look relatively good without going over their skis to say, okay, I'm too optimistic. I do think that -- I'd like to say second half of '21, most people are saying '22, I'm going to stick with second half of '21 because I think people are going to start getting back to work fairly quickly and not waiting until the end of '21 where people were talking about -- at the beginning, they're thinking, okay, we're going to see this January '22 now. I still think it's a month-to-month process of getting some good information and some candidly good luck in the process for us to see some positive movements in deployment of capital. There's a lot of capital on the sidelines and I think that capital is going to get deployed faster than people think. And so I'm thinking second half of '21.

James Risoleo

attendee
#16

Great. Brian, you play across all -- a lot of sectors in the world of real estate today. How are you viewing U.S. economic growth coming back in this quarter? And when do we get back to the pre-pandemic rate of growth? What are some of the hurdles you see that we've got to overcome as a country?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#17

Yes. I -- like Victor, I'll make it far enough in the future that I'll probably be right ultimately or you'll at least forget what I said by the time it happens. So I do think it probably is not immediately around the corner in the next quarter or 2, but hopefully it is the second half of next year. And as you mentioned in your opening remarks, the introduction of a vaccine and even just the prospect of a vaccine is so important to getting back to that growth. And we've seen this in other parts of the world where we have investments. Korea and China and other places like that, they are largely back to normal. So what really turned the page wasn't necessarily that the infection rates were down or anything, although all those things happen, it's confidence. Because as soon as people saw -- could see the other side of it, felt like there was a light at the end of the tunnel, then they get back to work, they get back to spending, they get back to hiring, businesses start up their manufacturing capability. And so I think the prospect and the promise that comes with these vaccines is really important and that's what the market is anticipating, is getting back to that. But we've been shut down for a long time and it takes time to get those wheels grinding again, getting people back to work, getting factories back up and running and that. And so that's why I think we shouldn't expect that the real economy is going to react as quickly as the financial economy does. But I think we're heading in the same direction.

James Risoleo

attendee
#18

Yes. What do you think the most important challenges in getting people back to work? You mentioned -- you've touched on that. I think that's really critical. And maybe some of the panelists as we move around can touch on it as well because we have to have - to have a healthy economy, we have to have a strong employment picture. And we've seen the numbers for unemployment climb from scratch, [ it may be ] declining but it's going to be a slow burn-back. How do we make that happen?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#19

Yes. I think a lot of it is learning to live with it in some ways or learning to live with the new normal. So again, we're not we're not expecting that we're just going to snap back and things are going be exactly the way they were in 2019. Much like after we saw following 9/11, there's going to be changes. The airport is going to look different. Your hotels are going to look different, the check-in process, the types of things that are happening. But I think getting those building blocks in place, getting people actually moving again, you get your hotels open, you get people in them; it's good for the restaurants that surround those areas; it's good for employment in supporting industries, et cetera, and it really sort of builds on that. And so I think it's incumbent on us as an industry to put in place those things that are going to make people feel confident about coming back to our office buildings or shopping in our malls or staying in our hotels. There's going to be a significant investment in both time and operational changes. And that is at least as important as the vaccine, which is giving people that confidence that if they do come back or if you're an employer and you're calling your workers back into the office, that they're going to be safe when they're there and they're going to come back tomorrow.

James Risoleo

attendee
#20

Excellent points. How are you viewing the world today? When do you think we're going to start returning to a sense of normalcy? And how about GDP growth? I don't even think it's fair to ask about this quarter, but how about the second half of next year?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#21

And I'm sorry, you broke up in the middle a little bit in that. Was that directed to me?

James Risoleo

attendee
#22

It was, Mark, yes.

Mark Parrell

attendee
#23

Yes. Thank you. I'm a buyer on the middle of the next year. We're hopeful that with the vaccine, I think we all are, that people will gain that confidence and return. I think one of the things to build on some of the answers that I think were very well thought out by Victor and Brian is schools' opening. I think having that ability for working parents to have their children safe in a school environment, be able to work in the office at least part-time, is really important. We see that in our office. It's just a significant impediment to normalcy returning. I also see there is a little bit of a flywheel effect here that has to get going again. I mean the restaurants have to open and entertainment venues so people are interested in being in the city, and so they're back in their apartments which would be of course great for us, and back in their offices. And that -- for that to happen, the restaurants have to be there. I mean it's just a sort of circle -- virtuous circle that needs to occur where the schools open, some of these, again, restaurants and other things that make going to work easier and more convenient, all that has to work. Transit here in Chicago is more limited, public transit, that has to open. So I think it's going to take a little bit, but I'm an optimist that the middle of next year, we'll see significant improvement in the tempo of office occupancy and the interest in people living in the cities, again, places like New York and San Francisco that got hit pretty hard. It feels to me like folks want to return. I'd also point out that the recovery will be helped if there's a record-level of bank balances, just cash and bank accounts. I think the government did a good job, especially initially in cushioning the blow from the pandemic, at least the financial part of it. I think there's a lot of people with money to spend and a desire to get out and do things and travel and live their lives again. And so I think we'll see a little bit of that pent-up demand try and exercise itself in the middle of next year.

James Risoleo

attendee
#24

Do you think the -- has the government done enough work in your opinion? Or do we need to do more?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#25

Well I think right now there's a need to do more. I mean, clearly, this fourth quarter is at going to be a real challenge. I mean it's winter. We seem to be walking into a real difficult period for the country. And if we can all just sort of buckle down for 6 months, it seems like the things should, because of the vaccines and the therapeutics, be a lot better. And maybe that does mean some of these limited lockdowns or -- not a big fan of a full-scale lockdown but at least more people are staying at home. And I think if that happens, a lot of service folks -- a lot of these restaurants barely made it, a few, they did through the last shutdown. I can't imagine another extended shutdown and the same for the hotels. So I think it may be in the best interest of the country, as the public health matter, to put a little bit more money in the system both for businesses as well as for individuals to just get us to the middle of next year.

James Risoleo

attendee
#26

Thanks. Great. Susan, how are you viewing the world today?

Susan Givens

attendee
#27

Yes. I wish I could have a different perspective just to create a little bit of a -- have a different view on it, but I agree with everyone. I think that -- I think there's just an increasing dichotomy between near-term and the kind of medium-term trend. So we are looking at 1 million new cases last week. And as Mark alluded to, there may be some lockdowns that we're looking at, hopefully not quite as severe but I think that that's something we might face. And so I think there's going to be quite a bit of kind of continued pressure as we move through the next couple of months through the balance of the year. Now on the other hand, it seems like very, very good signs on the vaccine front, probably even earlier than maybe some people thought. And so I think we have sort of this balance between what we're going to see over the next several months and certainly what we see in our business and on the health care and senior housing side, and then we're looking forward to next year. And so I agree, I think it's kind of the second half of 2021. I think also some interesting things that are starting to emerge that I think consumer behaviors are even a little bit different as we're going through this next wave versus some of the earlier waves. And so I think that also tells you exactly what people have already mentioned, that people are tired and people are ready to get back to normal -- some form of normalcy and get back to work and get back to resuming their activities. And so I think it's -- we got to get through the near term. But I agree, I think the second half of the year is where we start to feel it. And I also think that, the question about have we done enough, obviously, I think the -- a lot of the actions taken really did prove to be pretty successful. But I think as we sit here, we probably need to see a little bit more in order to make sure that we can get through in kind of the next several months.

James Risoleo

attendee
#28

Thanks for that. I'd be remiss if I didn't at least float the question, we'll see who wants to take it, on the effect that the recent elections might have on the economic picture going forward. With the realization that we have January 5 in the state of Georgia that is going to be, in many ways, very much a determinative factor. But what do we think about the new administration? How is the economy? How are the -- how is Wall Street going to respond? How are businesses going to respond with, let's assume for a moment that we have split government, that we have a Democratic house, a Republican Senate and President-elect Biden in the White House? So I'll start with Brian.

Brian Kingston

attendee
#29

Sure. Give it to the Canadian. I will...

James Risoleo

attendee
#30

It's easy. It gets asked a lot.

Brian Kingston

attendee
#31

Well, I -- I'll start with your set of assumptions which is a split government. And even if it doesn't end up being a split government, I think it's pretty obvious that the Senate is going to be very -- a tenuous hold for either parties. So look, I think in general, that should mean that any change that comes won't be radical. It will have to have some bipartisan support to it. And that's a positive. So I think for the markets and what does Wall Street generally look for, it's predictability and stability and general movement in the right direction, not necessarily radical change which could be good or could be quite negative. So I think in the scenario you outlined there, it's unlikely that we're going to see dramatic wholesale economic changes, whether it's tax reform or massive new spending necessarily on a very broad scale, but probably more targeted and balanced, which overall I think is a very positive outlook for both the stock market but also our industries, generally.

James Risoleo

attendee
#32

Great. Mark, how are you thinking about it?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#33

Yes. I mean the big thing for the apartment industry was actually the local election. So I'm going to dodge this bullet a bit on the national level. I mean the big win in California on Prop 21, which was a rent control measure that we run, the industry did a great job being very organized on and making, I think, really powerful arguments about how little or really nothing this measure would do to alleviate homelessness or create more affordable housing, that resonated with the populous, with the citizenry in California, and we won by just about the same margin as we did in 2018, by about 19 percentage points and took every county except the county of San Francisco. So I thought that was great news. I also think that we were a little less active. Prop 15 being defeated was terrific news as well. California doesn't need more taxes. I think that's an impediment to growth. So I think -- and we won a couple of others subordinate. It was being Burbank and Sacramento rent control measures. So I think there was a message sent about how to govern, and I don't think the message was we need significant additional regulation or at least you have to be thoughtful about that measure of additional regulation. And so we felt like from the industry's point of view, the apartment industry is good and the real estate industry. It's actually a pretty good election at the state and local level, for sure.

James Risoleo

attendee
#34

Great. Victor, how about your business being centered in the West Coast with Hudson? Great news for all of us what happened in California with the defeat of Prop 15, but the actions at the national level and at the local level?

Victor Coleman

attendee
#35

Yes. Well I'll jump in on Mark's coattails there. Yes. I mean listen, I think California messaging was absolutely made of massive statement with 15 and 21. I think, listen, 15, everybody wrote us off and we worked hard. I think there's going to be a lot of explaining to do with the capital being raised around 15 -- on the yes on 15 that the unions spent a lot of the teachers' money and they have nothing to show for it $80 million later. And so I do think that, that does bode very well for a statement going forward. I think now I'm getting calls, what about '22? I'm like there's no chance that '22 will be this. It won't be even remotely able to garner up some sort of support around this. So I think we've put this behind us. And hopefully the next 2 years will show a lot of great sound business moves even though despite California's inherent timing that they consistently go against the grain of making business work. We seem to be somewhat successful on a regular basis so I'm optimistic there. I will say with Brian as also a fellow Canadian, I completely concur with what he said. I do think right now, as we sit, regardless what happens in Georgia, it's going to be centric's process and I do think it's going to be hard to get anything through. I think the markets are finally in a position where -- Brian is exactly right, they need some level of confidence and less volatility and quite frankly, less noise. And that's what we're hearing right now by just the way the markets are reacting to any amount of positive news is actually positive which is a boomerang effect, which was for the last 4 years or 3.5 years, positive. And then as soon as somebody opened their mouth or something happened, occurred, it would rebound the other way and reverberate back and forth. And so stability is what markets want. I think stability is what we're going to have for the next 4 years at some level. It's going to cost us a lot of things. It's going to be, I think, spread out a little bit unfairly between a higher echelon versus the lower echelon, but you know what? I do think everybody is prepared for some level of stability. And I'm confident that it's going to set us in the right direction. Capital markets are sitting on a lot of capital and that capital today needs to be deployed. It cannot sit on the sidelines for a long period of time. I think people waited for a lot of places to deploy capital in uncertain times. When times are more certain and times have leveled out the playing field where we see debt levels are today, those are all positive factors for growth. And I think -- as we mentioned earlier, I think that political scenario that we're in right now is going to lead us to growth quicker than what people think.

James Risoleo

attendee
#36

It's great. Can we spend a minute, Victor, and talk about your portfolio? I'm just curious, I'm sure the audience is curious, too, you have a concentration of tenants in the motion picture industry and in tech. What portion of your tenants have remained in the space they're leasing or have returned to it, that they might have gone to work-from-home but now they're back in the office?

Victor Coleman

attendee
#37

So, listen, it's an interesting question. We've been very fortunate our portfolio has been 95% paid since day 1. So we've not changed. Our percentages have not changed at all. I think we were maybe in the mid-94s at April or May, but subsequently since then we're 95%. And that's a true 95%, it's not manipulating numbers. We have about 3% of our portfolio is retail and those run around 50%. And the remainder, our entire studio media portfolio, is 100% paid and the majority of our West Coast tenants were tech-related or media- and entertainment-related. And they're all paying rent. Now in terms of occupancy, the essential workers are not allowing a lot of these companies to go back. And so we have chartered every single one of our properties and we're roughly around 15% to 20% physical occupancy in assets. And so clearly, California being -- our biggest portfolio of our assets are in California, we're losing revenue on parking. That being said, with the voracious appetite in the change of content and the content players, one of our largest tenants is Amazon and Netflix after Google. And with their obviously voracious appetite and capital dollars in the billions paying on content annually, that has just sort of had this pipeline effect of no production until really late August. And subsequently, middle of September, production started in earnest, and we're 100% full on the production side in our entire portfolio of production space. And so you're going to see that, which usually has some level of seasonality over December -- from Thanksgiving through December because of the holidays. They're filming all the way through, and we see a constant amount of product coming on the small screen given where people are now watching, since they're not going to theaters, they're watching -- binge-watching the likes of that. So the new players, whether it's the Apples and Amazons and Hulus, Netflix or the middle line guards, the HBOs, the Showtimes, the Cinemaxes and the original Warner Bros, Fox, Disney, Sony, they're all ready to go and firing in all cylinders and we're seeing production at an all-time high. And that's going to bode very well for -- specifically for Los Angeles and the surrounding areas of Los Angeles, but all production markets like New York, like London, like Vancouver that are doing very well, Toronto as well, they're doing very well. And you're going to see that continue. So it's a positive sign.

James Risoleo

attendee
#38

Positive sign. Positive sign for rents next year when you're renegotiating leases as well?

Victor Coleman

attendee
#39

Yes. I mean listen, we have -- fortunately, our mark-to-market was, pre-pandemic, in the mid- to sort of 20% range. And so we've come off of that expecting that there will be maybe short-term leases. Well I should say it this way. I think what we're seeing is larger tenants are negotiating longer-term leases without, and so opportunities you get 2, 3 years and doing 7-year average deals when before, they didn't want those outs, so now they're looking for it. And I'm hopeful that those outs will not come into play, but we're probably looking at a mid-teen mark-to-market rent roll growth, cash-on-cash growth from our existing in-place leases going forward for at least '21 and '22 and maybe even higher.

James Risoleo

attendee
#40

That's great. That's really good to hear. Let's switch to Susan. Senior living facilities have been at the center of the COVID-19 outbreak in many areas, Susan. So can you share with us how that has affected your occupancy?

Susan Givens

attendee
#41

Yes. Sure. I mean look, I think as we all know, the pandemic has been devastating for many. I think it's been particularly difficult for the at-risk populations and seniors are right at the top of the list there. So we have always been a vulnerable population, meaning the people that live within our communities. And so when we started to see kind of the early signs to this, we knew that our operators, our residents could be right in the middle of all of it. And so beginning in early March, we started working pretty closely with our operators just trying to figure out what to do. And for our business, specifically, we're independent living and so we're not regulated. We didn't have any state or local regulators telling us what to do and sort of what actions we should take. So we really had to work very closely with our operators to try to figure out what made sense. And we decided to really close access and kind of limit access at all of our facilities in early March. And so it was a pretty a drastic step, particularly for a lot of our communities that haven't seen any sort of emergence of the virus just yet. And we knew it was going to have a big impact on our occupancy. So when we look at what's happened so far, our occupancy is down about 560 basis points since the start at the pandemic through October, the steepest declines for us came in the early months. So March, April, our occupancy was down over 100 basis points in those 2 months, each of those 2 months. Since then, we have seen big improvements. And so as people started to feel a little bit more comfortable, as we were able to start lifting some restrictions, we started to see move-ins come back. And we -- for the last kind of the last 5, 6 months, we had occupancy declines continue but they started to moderate. And then just this past month of October, we had kind of our best month that we've had since the start of the pandemic. And so I think the headline is that we are in the middle of it still. We're continuing to see cases and we're still kind of in the thick of going through that, but we have seen improvement. We've seen our operators get better at tackling the virus and have better protocols in place. I think as an industry, I think one of the challenges of senior housing is kind of the broad term that's used across lots of different real estate asset classes. And that ranges from senior apartments to nursing homes. So our business, independent living, we're on the lower-acuity side. And so I think we've fared so far, a little bit better than some of the other cohorts. We have a generally younger resident base. We have generally healthier people. We don't provide health care services. And so we've been able to now fare a little bit better while still very impacted than others. But I think the -- as we think about it and as we view it going into the next couple of months, we're still in the middle of battling through it, but I think there is certainly optimism and hope that we've gotten better and our operators have gotten better at handling it.

James Risoleo

attendee
#42

It's great. How is the resurgence -- there's a debate whether it's just a resurgence in cases or a second wave. So call it which you will, how is that affecting you today? Are you are you being forced to lock down centers, limit access and things of that?

Susan Givens

attendee
#43

Yes. I mean look, we have seen -- and I kind of describe it in sort of 3 waves so far. So for us, the first wave was in the spring, and that was more concentrated in the Northeast and in parts of the Pacific Northwest. And so that's where we saw most of the case. Then in the summer, it was more concentrated in the South and then in the West. I think what we're seeing now is it's sort of everywhere. And so it started in the Midwest and it seems like cases are popping up kind of all over the map. I do think that, kind of stepping back, for us today, 0.2% of our resident population has tested positive. So the numbers were small when you think about the facilities as a whole, but of course that doesn't change kind of the headlines of everything. And so we have seen some positive things. Outcomes have certainly improved. And so we we've seen hospitalization rates for seniors go down, we've seen mortality rates go down and we're also seeing some other things that are kind of interesting where in the beginning of kind of the pandemic, the virus emergence in our properties was coming from residents, now it's coming more from the associates and the employees. And so I think residents and the people in the facilities are doing a good job keeping themselves safe, but there is an inevitable factor where you have the employees traveling back and forth going home, taking public transportation. And so we have seen that. So I think that we're all watching. We're all kind of wanting to see how things play out. We have not had to do sort of the same and type of closing of the facilities that we did back in the spring just yet. I think we are hopeful that we don't have to do that. I think that what we've really learned over the last, call it, 9 months is that if a case pops up in our property or one of our properties, we can, with good protocols, handle it without having to shut down the entire facility. And I think another thing we're seeing and we're managing through is that we all know seniors need to we have contact, they need to have some socialization, they need to be around others and be around kind of with their loved ones. And so we're trying to balance that. We're trying to make sure that people are safe, but they are also engaging and they are doing things that are good for their mental and physical well-being.

James Risoleo

attendee
#44

So let's keep our fingers crossed that we can get the vaccine out sooner rather than later, Susan, and beat this. So Brian, if I can turn to you for a moment. Brookfield is a very large financial institution and you own properties across a broad range of sectors. And maybe we can just spend a little bit of time today talking about 2 of them: retail and office. So retail sales surprisingly have held up well in spite of the recession that we're in. What's the situation like in your retail properties now, almost 10 months after this spread of the pandemic?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#45

Yes, you're right. The -- and I think it was Mark that mentioned earlier that consumers generally have been building up a bit of cash in their bank accounts because they're not traveling or going out to dinner as much. And so what you're seeing that translate into is a greater purchase of goods. So while retail sales as a total actually looked pretty good in relative terms, it depends where you are in the retail sector whether you're feeling that or not. And so certainly, things like luxury goods, goods, generally, electronics, home furnishings, athletic gear, et cetera, sales have actually been very strong for those retailers. Obviously, services, restaurants and some of the sort of lower-value goods, those retailers have been faring less well. And so obviously, prior to COVID, there was a huge shakeout happening already in this industry as a result of e-commerce and increased adoption of e-commerce and this crisis sort of brought all of that to a head. So things that we thought might play out over a 5-year period sort of played out over a 5-week period. And so for many of those retailers who are in the process of adopting an online omnichannel strategy, it accelerated their investment and their adoption of that and accelerated their customers' adoption of that as well. And it's actually been very positive for them. So things like buy online, pick up in store or curbside pick up are highly valuable methods of sales for our retailers because the margins are higher. In fact, those -- the margins on those sales are higher than if you go into the store. And so the adoption that we've seen there has been a real positive for those retailers that either had made the investment ahead of time or were able to pivot to that. Clearly, there's some other sectors that are -- that have not made that change or were not doing it and so you're seeing an increased amount of bankruptcy. And so the disruption that we were seeing in that sector prior to all of this has just been sort of work speeded through the last 9 months. When we come out the other side of this, ultimately, we think everything will be in a much stronger position. The retailers that survived, the business models that survived and frankly the real estate that survives will be much stronger. But it is going through a period of tremendous change and so there's no one answer to your question, I guess, is what I'm getting to, which is, it sort of depends where you are in the quality spectrum on real estate. Obviously, A malls are faring a little better than some of the lower-productivity centers and within retail, certain tenants are doing better than others. And again, back to the point about government assistance, et cetera, I think everybody agrees they should be doing more. And I think one area where we could be doing is having a little more focus on some of those industries that are just not possible to adopt your business model to an online strategy. These mom-and-pop retail stores or local businesses that just can't pivot in the way that a Best Buy can. They employ a lot of people in this country and they're suffering. So I think as landlords, we've been trying to do what we can to, a, keep those centers relevant but also in those rent discussions with some of those other businesses that are unable to adapt to it, trying to have a sensitive hand around that.

James Risoleo

attendee
#46

And what sort of prediction are you and some of the other mall landlords taking with respect to rent in this environment?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#47

Yes. So we -- I sort of think of our tenants in 3 broad categories. There's the very large tenants who have strong balance sheets, national or international presence that are capable of paying the rent. They've got lots of cash on the balance sheet and a good capital structure. With them, we have contracts in place and we're insisting that they abide by them. At the other extreme, you've got these small local businesses that maybe they want to pay the rent but they just don't have -- they don't have a balance sheet behind it and frankly, it's a relatively small business. Those were taking much easier to align with in terms of things like rental abatements, et cetera. And then in the middle of that, you have people with more challenged balance sheets or poor business models, et cetera, where it's going to be a bit of a negotiation, which is we'll have to be realistic about ability to pay, et cetera. But on the other hand, we do have contractual rents. Ultimately, where are negotiations are ending up, and I don't think we're any different than any of our other peers out there, it's about 3/4 of the rent that has gone uncollected. We'll ultimately get paid back through some form of a deferral over maybe the next 12 to 18 months. And about 25% of it is generally getting sort of forgiven on a permanent basis. And then it really just comes out to the collection amount. Most of that, everything that I just described, really relates to just sort of the late Q1 and most of Q2 period. Now that we're into -- through Q3 and certainly into Q4, collection rates are once again approaching normal. We've been open. All of our centers have been opened since June 30. And so we're back to some sense of normalcy within those centers.

James Risoleo

attendee
#48

Great. Let's shift to office for a moment. You have surely have fairly significant portfolio in New York, I believe. And so do we, we own 3 hotels in the city. We are living it daily. New York City opened office buildings I think for business in June, but only about 10% of the employees have returned. How long do you think -- what's our crystal ball tell you about when the office sector fully recovers in New York?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#49

Yes. So I guess the good news from a landlords' perspective is unlike your business, when we have 10% of the people in the building, we're still collecting 100% of the rent. And so for us, it's more about the future and when do those businesses come back as opposed to hotels where it's a much more sort of direct impact on day 1. When we look office markets across the country, that occupancy number or that utilization number that you referred to is lower in New York than it is in virtually any other city in the country, and a lot of that has to do with transportation, public transportation, in particular, and the amount of reliance that tenants in this city, in particular, have around that. And so I think a big part of getting people back to the office, frankly, is getting, again, that confidence that taking public transportation or getting to the office is going to be safe. We ourselves have been back in the office since June, since we were allowed to reopen. We're virtually 100% of all of our people back or at least those that are capable of coming back. Certainly, there were a number of people who had -- they were immunocompromised or they lived with someone who was or they had particular circumstances and so we haven't brought all of them back, but we're at about 85% and they're in virtually every day. And the way we did that was slow. It took time. And it was a result of a lot of focus around listening to our employees, hearing what their particular issues were and then trying to solve some of those problems. So transportation is a good example. And so we partnered with [ VIA ] and created a system where people could actually get a safe and secure ride that they felt into the office if they wanted to avoid using public transportation for a period of time. The cleaning procedures that we go to through here in the office are extensive and highly visible and that gives people a lot of confidence. We're checking in health monitoring every day, check into an app and note any symptoms. We're carefully monitoring people's travel to the extent that they are traveling, regular testing, all of these things that we've sort of built up. And so you asked a question like what's it going to take to get people back into the office? It's a lot of work. And I think what's happening is many of our tenants are saying, let's just maybe wait a little bit longer and see how all this plays out rather than making that investment, not just in dollars but in terms of time and brain power, frankly, around how do you solve some of these issues and get people back. So we've tried to take our experience since June and actually created a little white paper to give to our tenants to say, here's everything we've learned so you don't have to think about everything or here's some of the things you may not have thought about. Here's what's worked for us, here are some things that maybe didn't work as well that we tried out and might work for you. But I think a lot of it is getting these businesses feeling a need or requirement to be back in the office as though they're getting left behind. And so I'll use -- we had Michael Bilerman on earlier, Citi is a great example of that. They're doing a lot to get their people back in the office. And I think the first investment bank that gets everybody back in the office is going to win a lot of business because they are getting back to having these face-to-face meetings and meeting with their clients. And I think as soon as the other ones see them or Goldman or a couple of the others who are bringing people back, starting to pull away, that will be some impetus to get them back in the office. But I think it's sort of a combination of a carrot and a stick, which is having some confidence around the procedures, the vaccine but also those fear of missing out or realizing that, look, none of our businesses work remotely, having people -- there's no substitute for having everybody in the office working creatively. The number of interactions that we just -- we have with one another on a day-to-day basis, you can't create it on a on a Zoom call. We can't train our younger staff this way. And I think you can get away with it for a period of time, but at some point we'll have to get back.

James Risoleo

attendee
#50

No. I completely agree with you. From a business travel perspective, there's no reason for businesses to get on the road until people are in offices. Where are they going to go? They're getting them there to be able to see. So it's critically important that we get offices open around the country in a safe way. What are you seeing, if anything, Brian, regarding office demand in CBDs outside New York City? And is there any migration to a suburban office today?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#51

Not -- we haven't seen a lot of that yet. I think a lot of our tenants that we're speaking to are thinking -- so I focus a lot on the short term, just getting back into the office. But as they start to think about the medium and longer term, I think a lot of them are thinking about what does their space look like in the future? Their space requirement per person, and many of them are looking at it and saying, look, we need to have some resiliency within the business. There's some possibility of work from home, but we may need more than -- we may be able to get away with having locations in different parts of the country as a result of that. So I think you may see some of these great cities like Nashville and Portland and others like that, that had been getting some migration into them. You may see them benefit somewhat from that. But I do think the core CBDs, like New York and Los Angeles and San Francisco, will continue to be critical melting pots for talent. And that's -- ultimately, that's where our tenants need to locate their businesses, is where people want to live. And then ultimately, when we do get through all of this stuff, that doesn't change. You're a 24-year old engineer, you want to live in these exciting dynamic 24/7 cities and they don't see that changing.

James Risoleo

attendee
#52

Yes. No, I agree with you completely there. We have a 25-year-old who's based in New York and she was in New York even though she wasn't in the office because she wanted to be there, and she wanted to be with her friends and enjoy the -- still enjoy the limited outdoor venue experiences and things of that nature. And I think that runs across that entire millennial, Gen X or age category. So last question, how are you thinking about property valuation in 2021? You could take one or however many sectors you want to talk about.

Brian Kingston

attendee
#53

This one's for me.

James Risoleo

attendee
#54

Yes.

Brian Kingston

attendee
#55

Yes. So look, I think just as a general comment. In the last decade, all of us have sort of benefited from this declining interest rate environment that we're in and the impact that's had on cap rates, but we've always sort of -- everyone sort of in the back of mind, at some point, this is going to reverse and rates will go back up again. And so there has really developed a fairly large spread between cap rates, discount rates or unlevered returns and where bond yields are today because in an expectation that at some point, it was going to reverse and they'd go back up. I think where we sit now, most people are coming around to the realization, we're in a very low interest rate environment for a very long period of time. And as a consequence, I think you're going to see cap rates come down pretty dramatically. So we may -- when we look at our assumptions today on rental growth relative to maybe where we thought they would be 18 months ago, certainly, those curves may have come down a little bit but exit cap rates required rates of return from investors. They have come down a lot as well and I think that's going to more than offset it. We recently just entered into a contract to sell an office building in London. The value is 10% higher than it was a year ago, and this was signed in September of this year, so mid-COVID. It's a very long-term let building. The cash flow is virtually locked in, but this was just an investor who had -- they were looking for fixed income portfolio, they're realizing that it's going to be virtually a 0% return and they're scrambling for income. And so the types of assets that all of us own that produce that stable long-term predictable cash flow that's protected against inflation, I think there's going to be a huge demand for it even if we don't get the same rental growth for the next year or 2 that maybe we had previously anticipated. So values are going up is the short answer.

James Risoleo

attendee
#56

Got it. Thanks for sharing that. Mark, equity residential has a very broad scope of operations. Can you give us a sense of what's happening in the multifamily space around the nation?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#57

Sure. It's both our portfolio and the market place in general that sort of split into. If you are like us, an urban owner and we have about 55% of our portfolio in urban centers, now you've been hit pretty hard. I mean the quality of life reductions we've talked about, the closure of offices, the ability to work remote, a lot of our residents have decamped, at least temporarily, and left the city and that's really reduced demand and affected occupancy in a pretty significant way and REIT in our urban centers, especially Brooklyn, New York, Boston and the City of San Francisco, those have been more affected than, for example, D.C., Seattle or Los Angeles. And we think Los Angeles is about being able to drive where you go and not sharing public transit. We also think there's people in San Francisco going to Los Angeles because it is, to some extent, preferable to being in the city of San Francisco given the pandemic. Suburban portfolio, so an owner of a suburban property, probably their rents may be down 5%, they may be up a little bit depending where. And values for suburban product are probably be up from pre-pandemic numbers. And you do see we're holding about the same 96.5% occupancy we had. For the suburban portfolio we had in the first quarter, we have again now where the urban portfolio is down several hundred basis points. So it's really 2 different marketplaces. And I think the recovery in urban we hope occurs in the middle of next year and we hope is fairly quick because, again, we can make up some occupancy here, not just rate, rate takes a while, but occupancy declines. In New York, for example, we're about 89%, call it, almost 90% occupied. We usually run 97%. So the ability to make up some portion of that difference quickly is something we're hoping to do.

James Risoleo

attendee
#58

Are you seeing any migration out of the urban markets, the dense urban markets to the suburbs?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#59

So even before the pandemic, there is this kind of dispersion, and I think it's been alluded to by some of the other speakers, of high-quality jobs, high-paying renters into other markets. Nashville, Portland, sure, a little bit, but a lot in the places like Denver and Austin and Atlanta and Dallas and some of these other markets that were getting a higher proportion of these long-term affluent renters that folks like us pursue. So I think there has been some additional dispersion there. I think what the pandemic has done is it's made people leave, we'd like to believe, temporarily some of the more dense cities like New York. But they haven't gone far because we track forwarding addresses and what we're seeing people do is they're moving the Central New Jersey. And they're telling our doorman on the way out, we love living here and when New York's worth living in again, we'll be back. So we're encouraged by that. We haven't seen them return yet but we're encouraged by that anecdotal evidence. We wonder if it isn't a little slower on the West Coast, especially San Francisco where the work-from-home stuff is maybe a little better-established or at least as being talked up a little bit more by the technology folks. But I'd point out, and I know that Victor can speak more persuasively to this, they may be saying folks aren't going back to the office, but boy, they're leasing like mad, aren't they? I mean Facebook just announced a big lease in Fremont. I mean -- so there is some dispersion of these high-income renters. But I think these jobs are coming back to the center of the cities to a great extent. And I think you're going to see in the middle of next year a pretty big pickup. But I wonder if San Francisco is a little slower than New York and Boston, at least in our portfolio.

James Risoleo

attendee
#60

Mark, what sort of changes had you implemented or have you implemented in the properties in the face of the pandemic?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#61

Yes. That's a great question because one of the most interesting comments made about the pandemic is how it accelerates change. And I think Brian talked about retail and I'll talk about -- we had a project going on where we were going to do remote leasing. It was going to take the whole year and for now on, you could -- instead of fully across all 300 properties, you could just do that all touchless effectively and just show up your first day, show us your ID, we'd hand you your key and you'd get into your unit. But you will have seen it virtually and it would feel terrific. Well we were able to make that whole thing happen in 3 weeks. And what's -- if there's any small silver lining in the pandemic, it's we've proven, and in any industry as a whole, the ability to make change happen and make it happen quickly when it needs to. So a project that, again, was a multi-month project turned into a 3-week project because we couldn't do any in-person leasing. We were going to have no leasing if we didn't do this. The same is true for a lot of the service stuff, where, again, we're going to a format by service, I mean maintenance where folks are using apps on their phones and we're able to prioritize high-priority service requests and speak to the resident and defer less high-priority requests till after maybe things get a little bit better in the markets, pandemic wise, to keep the resident and the employee safe. So I'd say a small silver lining, all this has been just the acceleration of operating technology in our business. I mean that's really been a big change in the last 9 months.

James Risoleo

attendee
#62

Thank you. Let's talk a little bit about the capital markets side. Start with equity. How are bankers and investors responding to equity offerings today? We'll start with Victor. I don't know if any of you had tapped the equity markets. We have it. But there have been some offerings.

Victor Coleman

attendee
#63

So we have not -- really, I think, listen, just to follow-on with what Brian said, just sort of like goes right into this. There is clearly a divide of private capital valuation versus public company valuations. And when you see cap rates today in transactions, and I completely agree with Brian because I've seen it, for stabilized assets or credit quality tenant assets that are going out in low 4s, high 3 caps in major West Coast cities like Seattle and Los Angeles and even in Silicon Valley. And then you see public company evaluations trading in cap rates at 9s, 10s and 11s. There's clearly an opportunity there. And what we are finding is, and it's been an interesting shift from summertime all the way through, is we're finding a tremendous amount of interest by private capital sources coming into the public stock markets. And they have been very aggressive long-term position holders, really getting educated on the value of the portfolio and saying, this is something that we want to be part of. And from our standpoint, and I know our peers are the same way, they've had a lot of reverse increase that way because the dedicates just aren't investing because they don't have the access the way the private capital markets are. So we're definitely seeing that as I think the interest level drivers. And clearly, we've seen a little bit of a tick up in valuations but nowhere near where I think NAV value should be and true valuations are. I mean any of us here can take asset-by-asset and sell them off in their portfolio, and it's worth tremendous amount more than what we are valued at right now at the Street. And given what Brian said with the vision of long-term capital, in terms of the debt markets where it's going to be for a while, it even enhances that spread even more. So it's kind of a little frustrating for all of us, but we know the reality of it. And the interesting thing is, is that we're entertaining now new investors into our market and our sectors into the industry overall, which is something that we've always been waiting for.

James Risoleo

attendee
#64

I'd like to continue the conversation, but we're beyond our allocated time, and I just have 1 final question that I would ask each of you to think about and respond to. COVID-19 is clearly a world-changing event. When we have a safe and effective vaccine in wide distribution, some of the changes that have taken place in our markets and our business practices will likely be reversed. Others may become permanent. So can each of you discuss some of the ways you think the pandemic could change your business permanently, and your plans to deal with that potential change? Susan, I'll direct that question to you first.

Susan Givens

attendee
#65

Yes. I mean, sure. One thing, I think, for our business. I mean, the demographic trends for us in the industry remain intact. So we're all getting older. And we know kind of everyone knows what's happening with the baby boomers and sort of what we'll see over the next several years. And so when you think about the 75-plus population, it's expected to double over the next 20 years. And when you think about senior housing, penetration rates in senior housing are still pretty low. It's about 6% today. So if that even increased just to a modest 7%, that would result in total absorption of kind of all senior housing units out there. So demographics are still very good even with COVID and with what's happened. For our business, 1 thing that we've been facing pre pandemic was there had been a lot of new construction, a lot of new development. And so 1 positive that we've seen is that, that has really come to a halt so far. And so I think when you look at assisted living, new construction starts are kind of at lows not seen since 2011. I think on the independent living side, we're looking at lows not seen since 2014. So from a industry perspective, trends are still very good, less new construction. And so I think we feel good about where its all headed, how the pandemic has changed our business. I think what Mark spoke about is something we talk about a lot. I think it's really accelerated things. I think absolutely technology. Seniors are very technology wary. It's something we're constantly battling sort of in our business. And we had to do the same thing. We all of a sudden had to go from physical incursion tours to doing tours virtually to get people moving into our properties. So technology has accelerated. We're getting that buy in from people that we didn't have before. I think other things in the industry, we've all been working towards are also accelerating. Alignment with our operators. We are just the owners, but we are so linked to the operations. And so I think a lot of things you'll see will result in kind of further alignment. And I think and I hope that what will happen when all the dust settles from this, people will actually see that senior housing did okay through all of it. And that while, yes, there -- this population was definitely in the middle of all of it. People were safe in senior housing. They actually had meals, they had activities. It's hard for people living at home with their younger children. So I think that when we're out of this, we'll actually see a lot of demand, and we'll see that people actually see value in senior housing. So really, we're prepared for kind of the acceleration of change. It's something that I think that is actually helpful and good. And I think that's sort of the biggest thing that we'll take with us as we hopefully get to the other side.

James Risoleo

attendee
#66

Thanks, Susan. Brian, how about your businesses?

Brian Kingston

attendee
#67

Yes. I mentioned it earlier, but I think when we think about the future, we think of it very much in the context of 9/11, and I'm sitting 100 yards from ground zero right now, but in much the way there was an increased focus on safety and security coming out of that. We think there's going to be an increased focus on health and wellness in all of our properties. And whether that's office buildings or shopping centers, et cetera. I mean, what's going to make the tenant and frankly, multifamily as well, it's going to make the decision for tenants around which of the selective property is going to be, the level of safety or security that they feel around health and wellness. And so that means what are we doing? We're upgrading air handling and filtration systems to the latest technology. We're building new procedures around them. And I think that's sort of -- that's just going to be the new normal. Temperature screening, et cetera, is going to be like turn styles were 20 years ago when you needed to install them. So I think that will be the lasting impact that will come out of this. I think people will still continue to come into office buildings, people will still continue to buy things in stores. That doesn't change, but how we interact or interface with those tenants will definitely have some lasting impact.

James Risoleo

attendee
#68

Mark, how about your business?

Mark Parrell

attendee
#69

Well, I agree on the technology with both the prior speakers for sure, but instead of building on that, I'll take the dispersion thing a little further. I do think there's folks that left big urban centers that'll return. It's just -- this was scary, and they'll be back. But I also do think there's folks that this was happening already and the pandemic again accelerated a little, just are spreading, again, high wage office workers who are both tenants for some of you on this call and residents for us across a greater number of markets. And I think you'll see owners of apartments like us respond by owning in more markets than we own now when we're chasing affluent residents. I think the pandemic has probably made people see the benefit as employers of offering opportunities to be not just in Silicon Valley, but also in Austin, Texas for their employees, or Denver or whatnot. And I think guys like us are going to chase that opportunity and that the pandemic probably accelerated that change, and it's probably not going to go away. It doesn't mean that San Francisco won't be the center of tech because of the network benefits in New York for finance and all that. But I do think it'll be a little bit more of a dispersion of these high-quality jobs and high-quality employers.

James Risoleo

attendee
#70

Thanks for sharing that, Mark. And Victor, we'll close it with you.

Victor Coleman

attendee
#71

Well, thank you. By the way, I concur on the technology, and I concur also and just the change around health and welfare, but I'll sort of look at it a little differently. I think all this talk of work from home is actually get a rebound to a positive effect, at least in our businesses and in office. Because I think it's going to make us go back to where we thought we were going before this all came into play, which is a 24-hour work environment. I do think you're going to find more people working from their offices. Various different flex hours, which is what tech had welcomed before. I think you're going to see the dispersion of individuals, specifically young people being able to work more productively at different times, and it being acceptable to come in at different times, which is going to make our spacing more valuable and more productive 24/7 versus a normal work environment in our time line. As a result of that, I think the productivity is going to go up, and that's a positive. And people are going to work with each other in hours that they're more comfortable with than what is sort of dictated as the norm of what yesterday's offices used to be. And so amenities are going to come into play more full force, and you're going to find that at the end of the day, I think the office space will convert to a 24-hour/7 office space that's going to be much more amenitized. And as a result, the revenue stream for us is going to be better. So I'm excited about that opportunity and change. And we have to get through the health and welfare aspect, but that's going to happen quickly.

James Risoleo

attendee
#72

Great. Well, I'd like to thank all of you for your time and insight today. I know I learned a lot, and I'm sure everyone in the audience learned a lot as well. Wish you all a successful NAREIT and continued good health and safety as we work our way through this. Have a great day, everybody. Thank you.

Victor Coleman

attendee
#73

Thank you.

Susan Givens

attendee
#74

Thank you.

Mark Parrell

attendee
#75

Thanks, Jim. Appreciate it.

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