DKSH Holding AG (DKSH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

July 15, 2022

SIX Swiss Exchange CH Industrials Trading Companies and Distributors earnings 46 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the DKSH Half-Year Results 2022 Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Till Leisner, Head Media and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Till Leisner

executive
#2

Thank you, Sandra and Good morning or good afternoon everyone, depending on where you're based. It's a pleasure to welcome you on behalf of DKSH. As Sandra said, my name is Till. Very happy to have us meet today Ido Wallach, our CFO and Stefan Butz, our CEO. As usual before the start, please have a look at the disclaimer of the presentation regarding forward-looking statements. For those who do not have the presentation in front of them, you will find them on our web page in the investor relation section at dksh.com. With that, I would like to hand over to Stefan.

Stefan Butz

executive
#3

Good morning and welcome everyone to the presentation of our half year results 2022. Looking at today's agenda, I will start with a recap of our strategy and provide you with the macro scenario in Asia Pacific. After that, I will talk broadly highlights of the first half of 2022 and detail the progress in our 4 business units. This will be followed by the financial update from Ido. Then I will focus on 2 of our key areas, ESG and digitization before we move on to the outlook and end today's webcast with a Q&A session. Let me now please reiterate our strategic focus. During the first half of 2022, we continued the disciplined execution of our growth strategy and our unique selling points are intact. We have an asset-light, better resilient and cash-generated business model. We drive our business to consistently expand our leading positions in our industry. We continuously strengthen our culture, which is built on entrepreneurship, trust and empowerment. We progressed well in terms of margin-accretive growth, leading to improved financial results. And we continue to fulfill our promise of delivering growth in Asia and beyond and creating sustainable values for all our stakeholders. We do this through operations, M&A and consistent dividend distribution. With this strategic backbone, we delivered good half year 2022 results, despite challenging headwinds and we are positioned for further value creation. On that note, let us please take a closer look at the macroeconomic scenario in Asia Pacific. On a global scale, organizations have been faced with challenges ranging from rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, supply chain interruption and the implications of zero-COVID policy and renewed lockdowns especially in China and Hong Kong. The weighted GDP growth rate in our market in the first quarter reached an overall 2.7%. China, just this morning announced 0.4% for Q2. Higher commodity prices from supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices have also raised inflation across Asia, but at lower levels compared to the U.S. and Europe. When it comes to COVID restrictions, you see the situation in different markets at the bottom chart. Also the overall situation in Asia improved since the peak in the third quarter of 2021, it is still clearly not back to normal and the restriction levels are high when compared to Europe and the U.S. However, for the next quarter, it is expected that the COVID situation will gradually improve. Let me now move on to the highlights of the first half of 2022. Overall, we built on our success in 2021 and continued to deliver good results in 2022. This pleasing performance was mainly due to the great commitment of our wonderful teams across regions and our strong operational performance based on growth, despite all headwinds and lockdowns and improvements in profitability. We picked up momentum on the M&A side, continued our digital transformation and made good progress in terms of sustainability, as well as building an ever better company by focusing on diversity and employee engagement. Not only the past 6 months, but the past 2 years plus demonstrated the agility and resilience are not only backwards within DKSH, but integral part of our business model and the fuel that keeps us moving forward, successfully fulfilling our purpose and delivering value to our stakeholders. When putting all that into numbers, net sales grew at constant exchange rate by 3.7%, reaching CHF 5.6 billion. EBIT increased by 19.9% at constant exchange rates to CHF 153.3 million, which was driven by the way by all 4 business units. While the EBIT margin expanded by 30 basis points from 2.4% to 2.7%. Profit after tax was up 24.5% at constant exchange rate and reached CHF 105.7 million. Further, earnings per share increased by 23.4% to CHF 1.58 per share. RONOC increased by 170 basis points to 20.4% and free cash flow declined due to temporary higher inventory levels, reaching CHF 72.1 million. Particular with 4 bolt-on acquisitions in our Performance Materials business, Victa Food in Italy, Refarmed Group in Switzerland, as well as Georg Breuer and JW Food System in Germany, we strengthened our position in the specialty chemicals and ingredients distribution industry in Europe. We have a solid project pipeline for 2022 and beyond and we will continue to tap new M&A opportunities in the still very fragmented market to accelerate our growth with financial discipline over time, which brings us to the next slide where I would like to explain our M&A approach a bit more in detail. Financial discipline is a key word when it comes to our strategic approach to M&A. We only buy companies with strategic value and sound financial profile that we can expand over time. We have a multi-disciplinary course of action, with all levels of the organization being involved, rating from the M&A committee to the business units and support functions that means M&A, HR, legal, finance, et cetera. Our designated M&A team is suited in Europe, as well as in Asia Pacific, which are both important foothold for us. When it comes to our criteria -- no, sorry, it's a mistake, with this discipline -- okay, let me now continue -- sorry -- let me now continue with an update on our business unit, starting with Healthcare. The results in Healthcare show organic growth and a good improvement in the EBIT margin. The main reason for that positive development are twofold. From an internal perspective, our leaner structure, targeted acquisitions and higher share of value-added products contributed a great deal. And from an external perspective, the gradual normalization of markets and a catch-up effect with of the business after post COVID played an equally beneficial role. Patients have started returning for non-urgent procedures and there was also a higher demand for COVID specific medication. And lastly, on the M&A side, we acquired Acutest, a Malaysian invitro diagnostic provider in Malaysia at the end of May, thereby further enhancing our medical device business in Asia. Let us now turn to our business unit Consumer Goods. Here, we continued to capitalize on our leading position in Asia Pacific and recorded double-digit EBIT growth. The favoring factors for this positive development continued to be the result of our transformation process, namely a leaner and more agile organizational structure, the ongoing rationalization of the client and product portfolio and consistent strategy execution. Net sales remained largely unchanged compared to last year. Product price increases at a reasonable level, lower sales volumes combined with lockdowns, as well as supply chain disruptions in some Asian markets basically balance each other out. In addition, we continued optimizing our client and product portfolio with a focus on profitability and we witnessed temporary out-of-stock situation due to delivery delays in some of our key markets. Moving on to the business unit performance material. We recorded double-digit net sales growth. We benefited from a positive sector demand in Asia Pacific and Europe, further expanded our life science and industrial portfolio. EBIT increased by 7.5% and excluding Japan, EBIT was up 16.5%. In addition, we successfully signed 4 value-accretive acquisitions, I just mentioned before, taking further steps towards consolidating the Specialty Chemical distribution business, especially in Europe. I'm confident for future growth opportunities in our Performance Materials business, which is characterized by our scalable business model, strong business development pipeline and the further consolidation potential. Overall, we will continue to strengthen our leading position in the specialty chemicals and distribution industry. Ending our business unit deep dive with technology, I can say that we achieved a good performance in the first half with strong organic growth and EBIT margin expansion. What boosted the result was an increased demand for scientific instrumentation and precision machinery. In addition, we increased our share of services and consumables in the business. We are confident that the business will continue to rebound from the pandemic and deliver a strong second half of 2022. With the acquisition of the DNIV Group in Singapore, a major player in the distribution of semiconductor and electronics in Asia, we strengthened our presence in this dynamic growth segment. Overall, the business unit is on track with its focused strategy of building resilience and deliver growth to its pre-COVID levels. With that, I hand over now to our CFO, Ido Wallach, who will walk you through the financial numbers in more detail.

Ido Wallach

executive
#4

Thank you, Stefan and welcome also from my side. I'm very pleased to provide you with further details of our 2022 first half results. Let me start with net sales, [indiscernible] by 3%, an important achievement given the volatility in the speeding which aging economies are coming back from the pandemic. For perspective, the Q1 GDP growth weighted to our markets was 2.7%. We had outperformed several our long-term GDP-plus growth objectives. It describes our ambition to grow faster than economic growth in the markets where we operate. We do this by winning new clients, as well as winning market share for existing clients. M&A has been a highlight once again, contributing plus 0.7% to our growth and mainly from the consolidation of our 2021 deals. As mentioned by Stefan, in 2022, we have accelerated our M&A even further. We already signed 6 new acquisitions. Cumulatively, they will contribute an annualized net sales amount that runs ahead of CHF 150 million. Combining organic and M&A, our net sales growth at constant exchange rate was 3.7%. This growth has been obviously affected by negative 1.7% from the strengthening of the Swiss francs during the period. Moving on to EBIT development. We are very pleased with our EBIT results. Organically, we grew double digit by 17%. All 4 business units contributed to this growth, evidencing the strength of our forward led portfolio. Sales growth, strong focus on high gross margin businesses and cost structure optimization have all combined to deliver an overall EBIT margin improvement of 30 basis points. M&A added 2.9% to EBIT growth, growing disproportionately larger than 0.7% contribution to net sales. Our M&A deals are margin accretive and this will remain our strategy going forward. Similar to net sales, FX had a negative impact also on our EBIT, measuring negative 3.3%. To wrap it all up, we are proud to underline that CHF 153.3 million EBIT in this first half year is the highest ever first half EBIT recorded in our company's history. Let us move on to review cash generation. As you know, an important part of our strategy is our asset-light business model. We typically lease our offices, we lease our distribution centers and we even lease our transportation fleets when the latter are not fully outsourced. In recent years and consistent with industry practices, software and IT equipment are also increasing releasing outsource. As a result, our capital expenditure in the first 6 months of the year remained at low level of 0.5% of net sales, equivalent to CHF 27.3 million. For the remainder of 2022, we expect CapEx to remain stable at 0.5% of net sales. Free cash flow in the first half of 2022 was CHF 72.1 million compared to CHF 107.2 million in the same period last year. As anticipated in our last call, following 2 consecutive years of growing cash well ahead of profit, cash conversion reached 68% of PAT, a figure that is only CHF 23 million shy from our long-term target of 90% conversion. The small shortfall equal to less than half a day of sales for DKSH is mainly driven by the volatile global supply chains and strong growth in Performance Materials business unit. Those effects prepare us to temporarily increase inventory, an increase that has been largely offset by continuous improvement in trade receivables. Let us move on now to the balance sheet. It remains very strong and I wish to highlight 3 things. First, the net cash position at the end of the first half was CHF 306.3 million, CHF 37.8 million higher compared to the same period last year, an increase that comes despite the increased dividend to CHF 133.2 million paid out earlier this year. Second, working capital measured as trade receivables plus inventory minus trade payables is at [ 906 ] -- CHF 64.3 million, 3.6% lower than last year despite 2% sales growth and higher inventory. Measured as a percent of the previous 12-month sales, working capital is down by 30 basis points to 8.6% when compared to last year. As mentioned, the increase in inventory levels has been more than offset by the accelerate collection. It is evident in a reduction of trade receivables to an historical low. This is the result of the collaborative and relentless efforts of our multifunctional business. They all share a deep understanding of the strategic importance of our strong balance sheet to our business. And third, our equity ratio is at 34.1%. It provides us with ample room for leverage. Leverage will engage with the right opportunity to grow a platform through industry consolidation. Before we return to Stefan to elaborate on our future prospects, let me provide you with some financial indications. In terms of M&A, we estimate that our recent acquisitions will contribute around 1% to net sales in 2022. On the FX side, assuming that current rates to go for the remainder of the year, we expect the full year FX impact within negative 1.5% to negative 2%. Tax rate, we estimate it will remain within the mid-range of 27% to 29%. Capital expenditure is expected to remain at 0.5% of net sales for the full year. With that, I would like to thank you for your attention and then over back to Stefan.

Stefan Butz

executive
#5

Thank you, Ido for the details on our financials. Having talked about our results, I want to give -- I want to take some time to dive deeper in 2 of our strategic focus areas, namely sustainability or ESG and digitalization. We continued making solid progress on our sustainability journey. Just recently, we have published our fifth sustainability report that illustrates how we brought our sustainability value to life through our established framework, focusing on the 3 pillars: our people, our partners and our planet. With regard to our people, we continued focusing on the development of our employees and achieved a 70 point score in our latest employee engagement survey, which benchmarks very well with leading large global multinationals. Focusing on diversity, equity and inclusion, we also increased the share of women in senior leadership position from 27% in 2020 to 29% in '21, with the goal of reaching 33% in the future. In terms of our partners, we officially joined the United Nations Global Compact, the largest corporate responsibility initiative in the world. This milestone not only demonstrates our belief that sustainability is about collaboration across industries and market, but also underlines our ongoing commitment to responsible business practices. Regarding our planet, we have achieved our climate target ahead of time through reaching a reduction of our own greenhouse gas emission by 40% last year. As climate change is nothing to settle for, we took this as an opportunity to aim for a new interim target and reduce our emissions by 65% until 2025. Going forward, we will continue to improve our sustainability performance across all pillars of our sustainability framework, focusing on diversity, responsible procurement, waste management and green energy. Another important area for us is digitalization. Here, our e-commerce sales continue to grow strongly, building on our successful track record, while our e-commerce business has increased net sales by 20x during the last 5 years. We continued our proven omnichannel approach with pan-Asian coverage and a presence in top marketplaces. Driving digital business models and leveraging data and analytics will remain our priorities in this transformation. We are confident to further benefit from Asia Pacific's digitalization, a region which is home to the fastest developing Internet market in the world, as well as to a young digital savvy and increasingly prosperous population. To conclude, let us now focus on the outlook. Based on the resilience and diversification of our business, we expect growth in -- EBIT growth in 2022 despite the economic uncertainties. As usual, we assume the following 3 indicators for this estimation to hold true; GDP growth in Asia Pacific, foreign exchange rates similar to current levels for the remainder of the year, excluding any unforeseen special events. We remain very confident about Asia's long-term potential. With our great and highly committed teams and our long-standing partnerships with local industry players and our pan-regional approach, we are in a beneficial position to capitalize on the unique opportunities in this dynamic region. We are well positioned to benefit from favorable market industry and consolidation trends. With that, I thank you all for your attention and invite you now to address your questions in our Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#6

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Gian Marco Werro from ZKB.

Gian Werro

analyst
#7

Good day everyone and congratulations on the strong first half year results. 3 question from my side, please. So the first one is in relation to your costs. The personnel cost increased significantly while you could really reduce your other operating costs relatively to sales also. So can you maybe provide us with some more details there please? Then second question is also in relation to Japan there. I saw that you mentioned also some issues that you had especially in the Performance Materials business that also impacted your growth there. So can you maybe provide us with some details also on the issues that you just faced in the first half within Japan? And then the third question is also in relation to the margin improvement in the Healthcare segment. Can you provide us with some details there, the dynamics also, maybe the product and category shift also?

Stefan Butz

executive
#8

Okay, yes. Thank you very much for the question, let me go ahead. So in terms of the [ PEC ] costs, so what you see here 40% of that increase is driven by M&A. And then obviously this year we have ASR adjustments in there as well as good bonus accruals based on the 20% increase in operating EBIT, as you mentioned before. And last but not least, we also try to hire better people in due course which cost a little bit more than maybe what we had in the past. And regarding -- regarding listen their production and they had to close their facilities and one is also running into financial challenges and that was a huge drawback on our strong market position in Japan. And secondly, I think the comparables were also pretty high from last year. Regarding healthcare, yes, we made some very good progress. We delivered some solid growth considering the situation out there and with a leaner structure, the additional acquisitions we had and then especially a higher share of value-added product, so that means more full service contracts, as well as more advisory services, own brands business, as well as the medical device business, we were able to show a significant uplift in margin enhancement.

Gian Werro

analyst
#9

Great. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up from all those margin drivers, how much was really now sustainable going forward? Or is there also some shift or support in relation to COVID healthcare materials for example?

Stefan Butz

executive
#10

Yes, I mean it was also supported slightly by COVID vaccines, as well as setting some COVID medications and testing equipment, looking at the global COVID story, I think that will continue to go on for a while. And I think I also did mention before that at one point of time, this COVID vaccination will move to a normal vaccination product like a flu vaccination and where we then also will start to make some money on and that is also to some degree already reflected in our H1 numbers.

Operator

operator
#11

The next question comes from Nicole Manion from UBS.

Nicole Manion

analyst
#12

I think most of them actually have just been picked up in the previous round of questions, so maybe just one on Performance Materials. Obviously, some of your peers in that space have been reporting very strong growth as well, but maybe a little bit more skew towards the kind of the pricing side. Could you remind us of what dynamic you're seeing in terms of split of volume and price and how you maybe expect that to develop and unwind from here, any certain kind of detail on that would be super helpful.

Stefan Butz

executive
#13

Okay. Yes, I mean, obviously, the market was still driven in H1 by some good growth opportunity, but also by supply chain interruptions and shortcoming of some materials, which increased prices significantly. Normally, we are very well able to pass on those price increases. And as we stated, excluding Japan, the EBIT uplift would have also been 17%. I think right now, we see a little bit more that the market is getting to normal level. So I would expect that H2 is a little bit softer than what we have probably seen in H1, but we will continue to still deliver some solid growth and EBIT margin enhancement here in PM.

Operator

operator
#14

The next question comes from Pascal Boll from Stifel.

Pascal Boll

analyst
#15

Yes, Good morning, everyone. Just a follow-up here on Performance Materials. So is it now this 15.7% organic growth primarily driven by pricing or higher volume because it doesn't seem that you have been very specific here with your answer just right now. Then on consumer goods, can we assume that portfolio clearance will be end by 2022? Or do you believe that will run into 2023? You also mentioned with your press release that volume came into pressure due to higher pricing. Do you believe that will continue into H2 2022 and probably also in 2023? And what impact do you believe it will have on volumes? And then finally, you cannot sell your inventory going forward? And maybe one question on medical tourism. You mentioned that some of your -- of the patients have started to use non-urgent treatment. What is the long-term case here? I mean that was -- I mean medical tourism was also driven by Chinese customers as far as I know. And as it seems right now, China tourism will be down for longer. So what recovery path do you expect?

Ido Wallach

executive
#16

Thank you, Pascal. This is Ido and maybe I can start answering your questions, Stefan, will chip in [indiscernible]. On PM, the growth and the markets in which it is the opposite, overall, it is probably half and half. And what you see also the margin is impacted a little bit by the logistic cost which as I'm sure you know are growing up. On the CG question on portfolio rationalization, it is clearly going according to plans, as you can see from the continued EBIT growth results. We expect that by the end of this year, the vast majority will be done, but it's going to be a regular process going forward is by definition, especially the fast-moving consumer goods element here is fast moving and breads and trends change year-on-year. On the free cash flow, we -- our target is 90%. We're a little bit short as I explained before these targets, but expect to be there at the end of the year, also 90% of PAT and also in the long-term future, as well as midterm. Of course, if occasionally, there is opportunity to increase working capital for -- to win a significant business and we will not hesitate to do so if this comes at the right moment. But by and large, you can expect 90% of PAP. I think the last question unless on this one was about medical tourism and maybe I'll hand to Stefan.

Stefan Butz

executive
#17

Yes, I think there was another question in terms of inflation in consumer goods hitting volume, so let me take that one first. Yes, I mean, normally, a normal low inflation rate of 2% and 3% is just being placed to the market and we just push it through and normally, you don't see any volumes effect, if the inflation is significantly food or in fast-moving consumer goods, at one point of time, then yes, they do switch to cheaper brands or they do switch to very, very basic food. So -- and in some areas, we see that and that is obviously slowing growth down a little bit in FMCG. Regarding the medical tourism, this is twofold, Pascal. On the one hand, we have some over-the-counter brands, which you're exactly right, very often are being bought by Chinese tourism in Thailand and Chinese tourism, I mean, they will not come to Thailand for a while, I guess. I mean, overall, the situation with tourism is pre-COVID there were around 40 million tourists per year in Thailand. I think this year, they expect close to 10% and the forecast is that by 2024, they are back somewhere around to 25 million. So gradually, it will come back. But I think China might be a little bit more challenging looking at the zero COVID policy they pursue over there. But the second part of the medical tourism business is a surgery business and that business is coming back slightly and is also an above average profitable business for us.

Ido Wallach

executive
#18

I think there was also a question on the stock question in the cash flow on the quality of the inventory. It is very high or actually our aging and excess is historical low. So all these inventory decrease is a very fresh one and very sellable.

Operator

operator
#19

The next question comes from Stefanie Scholtysik from Mirabaud Securities.

Stefanie Scholtysik

analyst
#20

Yes, hello, everyone. I have a follow-up question on the consumer goods side. I mean can you maybe give us a split or quantify a bit the negative organic growth? How much was driven by lower volume? And also how much was driven by the fading out of some of the [ SKUs ] on your corporate costs and digitalization? And you mentioned that digitalization is going forward. How much did you spend out of stock situation? Can you share with us what exactly was out of stock? And let us know if this was just temporary and which products were affected? And when do you expect the situation to be solved? And then maybe in general, can you share with us, you did a little bit on Thailand, but over the next half year or 12 months, what's your view on Thailand? How is this going to evolve? And also maybe we've seen China GDP numbers this morning. What effect do you think will it have on the overall Asian region?

Ido Wallach

executive
#21

Okay. Thank you for your questions. I'll start again and Stefan will -- to say with due to SKU and client personalization versus overall markets and the impact of price increases. Well, first of all, by and large, I believe almost 100% of all the price increases we receive from our clients, we pass on to customers in consumer goods. As we always said, that's actually an opportunity for us in this business when inflation accounts. We estimate that about half of the minus 0.9% obviously is coming from overall consumption impacts and the rest from the client personalization that we continue to see. I'd like to also underline that the consumption impact is focused in more countries than others, we've seen it in on core, we've seen it in the smaller business we have Mainland China for consumer goods and we have seen it also in New Zealand to some extent, which bring us to the questions of out-of-stock, there was probably delay in shipments, and that is...

Stefanie Scholtysik

analyst
#22

May be can I -- sorry, can I follow up, how much -- I mean, can you quantify it's a bit how much was price increases in the first half? And how much of the growth was attributable to SKU reduction? So was it 5% price increases and lower volumes, I don't know 4% or just to give us an idea?

Ido Wallach

executive
#23

Yes, so overall, we have seen a price increase of 4%, which we have moved on to our customers.

Stefanie Scholtysik

analyst
#24

Okay.

Operator

operator
#25

The next question comes from Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Stefan Butz

executive
#26

Sorry, Stefanie, can you still hear? Stefanie? I think she dropped out.

Ido Wallach

executive
#27

Yes.

Stefan Butz

executive
#28

I mean just to answer the question for the recording, in terms of the portfolio reduction in FMCG, that was 1% to 2% of the overall volume. The out-of-stock were primarily products from U.S. clients who were stuck somewhere in the supply chain on the way. Is this temporary and let's be optimistic that there is no setback moving forward. Regarding Thailand, I would like to move on here with your question. Overall, yes, I mean, the GDP forecast for Thailand was also reduced from 2.7% to 2.2% for this year. And obviously, yes, I mean, China was almost on 0 in H2 this year. I mean there's upside and downside. So obviously, China is a major economy in the region, which does have an impact on the region overall. But on the other hand, I mean, we clearly see, if we look at international investments right now that more money is being allocated to countries like Thailand, which makes us quite optimistic plus the tourism is slightly coming back.

Ido Wallach

executive
#29

And I'd like to also complete the answer for the -- there was some digitization. We -- over the last 3 years, we have doubled our spending overall on IT in digitization in the company that is capturing the non-BU expenses that you measure. And we have by and large finance that with reductions in other corporate services. We intend to continue to grow our IT and digitization spending ahead of gross margin in the years to come.

Stefan Butz

executive
#30

Jon, are you in the line?

Operator

operator
#31

The next question comes from Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Jon Cox

analyst
#32

Jon with Kepler Cheuvreux here. Just to come back to this Japan question, it obviously -- it looks like this incident cost you about 110 basis points year-on-year. Should we be actually thinking that this business won't come back as a result expectations were around a 9% margin in that Performance Materials division are too optimistic and we should be really squeezing in a eat? That's the first question. Second question, just really on sort of more recent trading because obviously, we can still see this consumer weakness when -- as you look through towards them generally, I'd imagine that Thailand unless we get an overrun as we go through the year. Can you just talk a bit about how you saw sort of May and June trading? And then maybe compared to the start of the year, just to give us a feel of sort of like the run rate we should be expecting.

Stefan Butz

executive
#33

Yes, thank you very much, Jon, for your question. So I mean, regarding Japan, so there were like 2 factories that were suspended. I mean, obviously, they are working now together with the authorities to get them back on track, as well as to shift the production capacity to other factories. So they will -- that will take a little bit of time, but clearly we are not writing this volume off. This volume is going to be forecasted numbers, I would not expect that Thailand is being overrun, I think that's very optimistic view. But clearly tourism is coming back and they also obviously lowered all the COVID hurdle. So it's very easy right now to enter and leave Thailand. So I think that should support especially the season starting going into our winter here. So we are cautiously optimistic regarding the development of Thailand overall. In terms of trading, yes, you are right. I mean, clearly, there was a step-up from Q1 to Q2, please let's not forget. We sometimes forget it here so quickly, but I mean in Q1, we still have seen significant lockdowns across Asia and significant hurdles to do business and to enter and travel in the country. This came down in Q2 and we could clearly see the trading moving upwards. In terms of COVID, as I mentioned before, we expect that the last remaining hurdle to cross the region continue to fall further, the exception, obviously, of China and it's slightly different in terms of economic outlook and uncertainties for H2. So that's where we also have to be cautiously optimistic that there is a little bit more headwinds coming from the economic outlook. But having said all of that, we are very confident that despite all those headwinds and uncertainties, we will continue to grow. We will continue to grow over H2 last year at the top line, as well as at the bottom line.

Jon Cox

analyst
#34

Just to keep coming back to this Japan issue, sorry, because what it did make quite a material difference, when during the half did that business disappear? It's incredibly profitable for this thing to have such a negative impact on your margin? And then the question is, what is your confidence and that this stuff will come back whether you think maybe this business is being lost?

Stefan Butz

executive
#35

Look, I think we always did share that different markets based on the competitive positioning of our business have different margin. And we clearly have a strong position in the Japanese market, but please understand that we can't share that we are not able to share every revenue number, specifically to one or 2 client.

Jon Cox

analyst
#36

Can you tell me when it happened, was it Q2? Or was it already start of January at quarter? What is -- give us your best guess like 50-50 chance? Or do you think it's a 80% chance when it could take 12 months or...

Stefan Butz

executive
#37

No, I would say clearly, there is an 80% plus trend, but we will take a little bit of time. But again, I mean, that's a local challenge the client is facing with local challenges and authorities.

Jon Cox

analyst
#38

Yes. Okay. Great. Just a quick one on the Healthcare and obviously a great trend on that, which was a positive surprise, just wondering in terms of the development of maybe other stuff and I'm really thinking now private label, medtech type of equipment. Are you starting to see that coming through and benefiting your business? So this isn't just a one-off bank's back, but actually there's some underlying fundamental improve in that business.

Stefan Butz

executive
#39

Yes, that is correct. I think we also did share that already at our Capital Market Day that we clearly have a strategy to further gain market share in the medical device industry and also consolidate in that market through M&A. I guess you have seen some transactions there over the last 24 months. It's a market with higher margin, very fragmented and it does definitely support bottom line. I mean obviously, the sales are relatively low comparing to big pharma. That is one of the reasons why you say a stronger bottom line development than a top line development.

Jon Cox

analyst
#40

But does that mean that -- I know the Capital Markets Day, you mentioned some of this stuff, but you still tended to say we have a big competitor in that market and we shouldn't really expect the margin on the healthcare to go up really because of the competitor keeping you honest as it were. But now with this, can we start to think that the healthcare margin and over time will actually start to improve?

Stefan Butz

executive
#41

I mean clearly, our objective is business model is also based on economies of scale, we will increase the share of value-added services as well as you mentioned of some own brands and medical devices and that will support some continuous margin enhancement. So yes, that is what we can expect.

Operator

operator
#42

Gentlemen, so there are no questions from the phone.

Till Leisner

executive
#43

On behalf of DKSH, thank you very much for dialing in. And if you have any additional questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you very much and wishing you all a great day.

Stefan Butz

executive
#44

Thank you very much and see most of you then during next week. Bye-bye.

Ido Wallach

executive
#45

Thank you.

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