DNB Bank ASA (DNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay, everybody. Thank you so much for participating and welcome to all of you for this DNB's pre-call for the fourth quarter. I just want to like to remind you all that there will be no new information on this -- from this call. But this is just a reminder and from service to try to remind you of what we have communicated, which can have an effect on the Q4 results. We will also give you some updated macro data from Norway statistics and also from the Central Bank. As usual, I will start with the NII and the capital, and then Anna will take the rest of the P&L. Starting with NII, we all know there is no change in number of interest days from Q3. On the volume side, just a reminder, that in Q3, we reported a negative growth of 0.4 in the retail and a negative 0.3 in the corporate. Statistics On Norway is reporting a gradually lower credit demand for October and November for both household and corporate. For households, from 3.9% in May to 3.5% in October and 3.3% in November. And for corporate, from 6.8% in May, 3.3% in October and 3.0% in November. The Central Bank's expected credit growth to household for next year or this year 2024 is 2.8%. And as you all know, our focus is on profitable growth. I'll also go through some of the NII effects from the rate hikes versus Q3. We will have full quarterly effect from a 50 bps hike that was effective from the 7th of August. And we said at that point that the expected annual effect of this rate hike was NOK 2.2 billion. We will have partly effect from the 25 basis point rate hikes affective from, respectively, 27th of October and 26th of November. Last 25 bps rate hike announced in December will be effective from the 20th of February. We have guided tapering effects from rate hikes. And from Q3, we no longer guide a specific number. This is because we find it more challenging to distinguish between repricing effects and changes in the market dynamics, including changes in customer behavior. Still, we still say that there will be a significant effect -- positive effects from these rate hikes. Central Bank expects rate part now to be -- we have a rate -- interest rate Central Bank right now at 4.5%, which will stay stable until the end of Q4, or in this last quarter of 2024, and then gradual decrease to 3% in end of 2026. We have a small positive FX effect for the quarter because on average, the Norwegian kroner has weakened approximately 3% for us. On the capital side, in Q3, we reported a CET1 ratio of 18.3%. We completed a share buyback program in December and also then announced a new program in December of 0.75%, which will have a negative effect on the CET1 ratio of approximately 20 bps. As we also said in Q3, this quarter, we will adjust for actual dividend payout ratio versus 66% as we have calculated for the first 3 quarters. This is due to regulations from FSA. So this is just an average over the last 3 years. That's why we have used the 66%. Annual asset provided a release of 30 bps on the CET1 ratio. That means that NFSA's expected requirement is now 16.9%. On the capital side, we also have a small positive FX effect due to a strengthening of the Norwegian kroner, and that's the end-to-end period. But this is only 1.5%. That was the NII and the capital. And then over to you, Anna.

Sure. Starting with commission and fees. Investment banking, as you know, typically sees a seasonally higher activity level in the fourth quarter compared to the third. So a high activity level, driven primarily by DCM and M&A in the fourth quarter. Real estate brokerage, we have seen a market slowdown in Norway in the second half of the year. And there is a seasonally lower activity level in the fourth quarter due to the December holiday season. And the sale of newbuilds is still at record low levels. Asset Management, positive market development drives AUM higher, as shown by public market statistics for the month of November. Money transfers, we continue to see a high level of card use. Keep in mind, though, that the third quarter is typically somewhat seasonally higher given the holiday -- summer holiday season and corresponding international travel and card use. Moving on to net gains on financial instruments at fair value, starting with customer revenues in DNB markets or FICC continues to see a high activity level. The mark-to-market effects on the AT1 and the basis swaps were announced last week and totaled a negative effect of NOK 892 million. A reminder on the outstanding AT1 instruments, we have USD 850 worth of AT1 outstanding, and SEK 1.85 billion AT1 outstanding. Moving on to costs. A seasonally higher activity level as we typically see in the fourth quarter, all else equal, typically leads to higher costs generally. The Norwegian Central Bank has updated their expected wage inflation figures in the most recent December reports, updated somewhat higher than their previous reports. 2023 wage inflation for Norway is now expected to come in at 5.5%. And 2024 wage inflation to come in at 5.0%. And a reminder on normalized pension expenses, they are expected to be slightly higher than NOK 400 million in a quarter. And as we've said before, the compensation scheme is primarily linked to the development in global equities. Finally, impairments and asset quality. The portfolio is carefully monitored, and we are generally comfortable with the risk in the portfolio. As you know, impairments will vary from quarter-to-quarter, driven both by potential changes in macro input factors in the sales model, and/or company-specific events as you've seen in past quarters. Clearly, there is more uncertainty going forward given the current macroeconomic outlook and it would be natural to see more company specific events. But again, we do not yet see any systemic areas of concern in our portfolio. Very lastly, a kind request or a reminder to please submit your pre-Q4 consensus estimates to Andreas by close of business on January 18. And with that, I think we thank you for your attention, and wish you a good rest of the day.

Thank you.