DNB Bank ASA (DNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone, and a happy new year to all of you. A warm welcome to this pre-call session for the fourth quarter. I'll just remind you that the objective of this call is to remind you what we have communicated, which could have an effect on the Q4 results. So as usually, I will start with the NII and Ida will -- NII and the capital, and Ida will take the remainder of the P&L. So let's start on the NII. First of all, same number of interest days as in Q3. On the volume side, just remind you that in Q3, we reported a growth of 1.6% or 1.2% FX adjusted, including a positive plus 0.8% in personal -- for Personal Banking and a stronger growth in ACI. Statistics Norway reported last 12 months credit growth for November, 3.6%, of which household was 2.9% and corporate was 1.9%. For DNB, profitable growth remains the focus. FX adjustments or FX, small positive volume effect due to weakening of the average Norwegian kroner of approximately 1.5%. The FX split in our loan portfolio in Q3 was 8% U.S. dollars, 6% euro, 6% Swedish kroner and the remaining was Norwegian kroner. Moving over to capital. In Q3, we had a CET1 ratio of 19%. The NFSA expectation is 16.7% from the year-end 2024, following the 2024 FX. So to the potential Q4 effects. CET1 adjusted for actual dividend payout ratio versus the 64% dividend payout ratio used for year-to-date Q3. Next, as last year, we expect the risk-weighted volume for operational risk as a result of higher income the last years. The REA volume for op risk is adjusted once a year in Q4 as the calculation of average income over the last 3 years. In Q4 '23, this effect was negative with 27 basis points. Next, as in Q4 last year, the NFSA has approved an extraordinary dividend and repayment of excess capital from DNB Life Insurance also this year. The effect in Q4 '23 was on the CET ratio was plus 10 basis points. Ordinary dividends from the Life company is expected in the first quarter. On the margin -- no, sorry, we expect also a marginal negative effect as a result of the U.S. dollar AT1 call in Q4 and also a marginal negative FX effect on the CET due to weakening of the end of period of NOK of approximately minus 2.5%. We had said that the FX activity is approximately for 10%. The change in the NOK is approximately 20 basis points. Then also a reminder of future expected headwinds. First, implementation of CRR III is expected in Q1 and is expected to have a minor negative effect after mitigating actions. Next, acquisition of Carnegie and expected closing during the first half of 2025 is expected to have negative effect of 120 basis points. And next, Ministry of Finance announcement in December regarding an increase in risk-weighted floors for mortgages from 20% to 25% is expected to have a negative effect of 70 basis points from Q3. Then over to you, Ida.

I'll start with a general comment on commission of fees. Generally, activity levels tend to be higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third. Moving on to net gains on financial instruments at fair value. And first, customer revenues in DNB markets or FICC. Also, activity levels tend to be higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third. The mark-to-market effects on the AT1s and the basis swaps have been announced and totaled a positive NOK 146 million. And a reminder on the outstanding FX AT1s, we have USD 700 million outstanding and SEK 4.95 billion outstanding. On costs, a seasonally higher activity level as we typically see in the fourth quarter, all else equal typically leads to a higher cost level. As we announced in September, we will reduce the number of FTEs by 500 over a 6-month period. We will book a restructuring cost related to this of approximately SEK 450 million in the fourth quarter and expect to conclude this process during the first quarter. Market expectations for salary inflation in Norway for 2024 is at 5.2% and for 2025 at 4.2%. And a reminder that normalized pension expenses are expected to be slightly higher than NOK 400 million in a quarter and that the closed defined benefit compensation scheme is primarily linked to the development in global equities. Impairments and asset quality, there's really no change in our message on asset quality. The portfolio is still carefully monitored, and we are still generally comfortable with the risk in the portfolio. As you know, impairments will vary from quarter-to-quarter, driven by potential changes to macro input factors in the ECL model and/or company-specific events, as you've seen in past quarters. And given the elevated level of uncertainty driven by the global macro picture, it would be natural to see more company-specific events as we've also communicated previously. But again, we do not see any systemic areas of concern in our portfolio. And finally, a kind reminder or a request to please submit your consensus estimates to Rune by the end of business on Monday, January 20. And with that, we'll conclude and close the call, and thank you very much for your attention. Have a good day ahead.

Thank you.