Dover Corporation (DOV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 12, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Machinery conference_presentation 38 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Welcome and thank you for standing by for today's conference. [Operator Instructions] Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve Tusa. Sir, you may begin.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#2

Great. Thanks for joining us, everyone, for the last fireside chat of this virtual conference. Hopefully, you've all gotten some pretty good content. I think most of the fireside chat and also the 101 have been informative as to what's going on in an incredibly kind of fluid situation and challenging environment. But we're kind of bringing it up here, not last but not least, with Dover. We're happy to have Rich and Andrey on the line. Rich is going to talk in the beginning and just give a little bit of a preamble, and then we'll jump right into the Q&A. With that, Rich, take it away.

Richard Tobin

executive
#3

Thanks, Steve. All right. Good morning to everybody. It's a prologue to the Q&A. I'll begin with some comments, then we can get the ball rolling here. We had a solid performance in Dover in 2019 where we posted 4% organic top line growth, 180 basis points of margin improvement and a 19% increase in EPS. In September, we held a Capital Markets Day where we announced the new organization and external reporting structure of the group, provide a granular detail why we believe that we -- our portfolio is significantly less cyclical than the past. A material proportion of our revenue is reoccurring, driven by a large installed base, software and services, and we have a clear path for nonrevenue-related margin opportunity driven by center-led initiatives and back-office consolidation, digital initiatives and footprint optimization. As such, we have committed to delivering $50 million in non-revenue savings in 2020, and we are on track to deliver that. We exited 2019 with a strong order backlog in the majority of our portfolio, and that trend has held for the first 2 months of the year despite the recent turbulence. On this basis and our confidence in our ability to deliver our cost-saving objectives, we do not see a reason to change our full year guidance at this time. Finally, I'll comment on our actions taken with our employees so far as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have implemented travel restrictions, both internal and domestic, curtailed participation in all large gathering events. We have, subject to applicable local laws, implemented a policy of paying all employees during any mandated quarantine period additionally subject to local conditions, have adopted flexible work schedules and remote working policies, and we are up and running in all of our China operations as of the end of February. And we are at or able to reach projected operating capacity and employee and supplier bases this month, but demand in some industries remains soft as our customers come back online. In Italy, the situation remains more fluid. All of our opcos are up and running. That statement has changed as of late last night, where we decided to shut our digital print operations until Sunday night because of travel restrictions getting more draconian in the Lombardy region. But we have been able to ship product in Italy and are monitoring the situation daily. Our best estimate of the negative impact to operating profit versus forecast to be approximately $15 million to $20 million in EBIT during the quarter. That's enough for me, Steve. So let's get on to the Q&A.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#4

Sure. So can you just -- sorry, I was on speakerphone there. Can you just maybe talk about the -- so you're kind of reaffirming the guide, obviously. It's a fluid situation. I don't think anybody necessarily will like hold you to do that ultimately, see what plays out here. But for the quarter, what are some of the moving parts? If you could just get a little bit more granular on what's moving around out there geographically, especially in China. You guys aren't too exposed. But just curious as to kind of what you're seeing. And which businesses -- how you kind of break down your China business by -- for the various segments, if possible, too?

Richard Tobin

executive
#5

The -- approximately 15 out of the 15 to 20 is China related in terms of the headwind because of the Italian situation, as I mentioned, up until last night, we were still shipping out of our Italian operations. So what we took during the quarter was the under absorption of the facilities as they were shut down and then the weakness in the demand function. Our biggest exposures in terms of demand in China are on Printing & ID being #1 and then DFS or fueling solutions being the second largest. We had expected fueling solutions to have a headwind, but we took the under absorption of some relatively sizable operations there. So it's not that we missed the demand on fueling solutions in China, it was just more of the impact of the shutdown of the operations themselves.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#6

So when you think about that China business, how much is kind of the product ID and fueling business?

Richard Tobin

executive
#7

It's about -- I'd have to go back and look. I would say half...

Andrey Galiuk

executive
#8

Over half.

Richard Tobin

executive
#9

Over half is Printing & ID.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#10

Okay. And when we think about the Printing & ID end market kind of breakout, and I know there's kind of a general industrial piece in there, is a lot of that in China? Or is it mostly more kind of the fast-moving consumer good type of markets?

Richard Tobin

executive
#11

Yes, let's split it now. The Markem-Imaje business, so the fast-moving consumer goods is levered towards China, mostly. The textile printing is not levered to China at all. Actually, it's -- that's levered towards Greater Asia.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#12

Right. Greater Asia. Okay, got it. When you think about -- so these are with, basically, no offsets from costs? I mean, I'm sure that there is -- or maybe it is the discretionary costs that's, like you said, there's not -- there's no travel. The T&E is going to be down. Is this kind of a net impact, including that discretionary cost?

Richard Tobin

executive
#13

Yes, that's our -- that is the impact, and we're doing everything that we can do right now to offset the impact. But that is the impact of the COVID virus in both China and our early estimates in Italy.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#14

Right. And then, ultimately, your kind of organic revs for this quarter, how do you see that kind of shaping up at just a high level kind of Dover -- on a Dover company basis?

Richard Tobin

executive
#15

I think that we're relatively cautious in terms of our revenue for the full year. We -- and we're explicit that Q1 was always going to be a little bit of a difficult revenue comp for us in Q1. So we're not materially off of what we thought we were going to get in the first place. We have some portions of the portfolio that have done better than expected in Q1 that has moderated the impact of the COVID virus up into this point, but we still have to close March.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#16

Right, right. When we think about how you guys are positioned for a potential mild recession, we've -- I don't think -- this doesn't feel to me like it's '08, '09, maybe it's a little bit more like a '01, '02 in kind of a worst-case scenario. How do you feel like your portfolio can hold up in an environment where IT goes down mid-single digits? I'm sure you've done some scenario planning, whether it's this week or 9, 12 months ago. And do you have extra? Do you have like more cost levers that you can pull in a tougher environment? How should we think about a profile?

Richard Tobin

executive
#17

Sure. I mean, look, I think that, I guess, we are pleased that we did that Investor Day in September, indeed, the resegmentation, because it allowed us basically to rebenchmark our portfolio against when Dover had Apergy in the past on the oil and gas side. So I would tell investors to go revisit that presentation for 2 things in terms of the volatility of our revenue streams and then the proportionality by segment of what we got to be considered reoccurring revenue streams, a proportion of the individual segment. So we believe that the Dover portfolio versus the past is going to be able to weather storms versus what you would see in terms of reported earnings through previous shocks in the system. Having said that, we have 200 -- we have a gross SG&A of $1.6 billion estimated for 2020, of which $250 million is flexible based on volume performance. So we're talking about commissions and incentive comp and $100 million of P&E. So we have $350 million within our SG&A line that we will flex as we get a better idea of what activities levels are going to be through the year, and that's before taking into account direct curtailment and taking out direct labor costs. That's purely incontrollable cost on the overhead line.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#18

Right, right. So that would be kind of the variable stuff you'd be able to manage. Are you pretty much done with kind of the more structural? And I -- by structure, I don't mean like 3-year payback kind of plant closures, but more of the kind of structural overhead reduction in SG&A outside of the longer payback stuff, the more -- kind of more like the quick turn payback stuff?

Richard Tobin

executive
#19

Not really. I mean, I think, out of the $50 million that we committed to this year that we're going to deliver, a lot of that is SG&A related. So if you think about our Dover business systems, so our back-office operations, a chunk of that $50 million is coming through there. A lot of it's through the centralization of IT is a material portion of that $50 million. So we're, by no means, done. And even under current conditions, we're going to deliver the commitment on the $50 million, and we think we have a runway there outside of 20.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#20

And then, I guess, beyond that, you have talked about an opportunity on footprint that's, I guess, longer term. I mean that's still kind of visible and on track those plans?

Richard Tobin

executive
#21

Yes. Look, I think that we've got a pretty big footprint operations still in-flight right now within the Refrigeration & Food Equipment segment. So we're touching both the food equipment side and refrigeration. We'd like to get that behind us and deliver kind of the margin enhancement, subject to revenue, the margin enhancement in '20 that we've got steps further on from there. I think the low-hanging fruit for us is by -- one of the reasons that we did the resegmentation is the fact that we believe now we've got these businesses clustered where their operations have a significant commonality. So we would be expecting significant savings in terms of footprint and CapEx utilization going forward in the segment.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#22

Yes, that was going to be my next question on cash. How -- if we do see a volume decline, do you think these -- that your organization that kind of the opcos are ready to, first of all, flip the switch on working capital? Because I know you guys had, had a bit of a working capital challenge in the last couple of years in certain instances. But then secondly, yes, what [Audio Gap] a bit and kind of pull back. What is that discretionary level of CapEx that you could pull on? And what is kind of a more normal run rate to CapEx acknowledging a tough environment? Or do you just plow through with all these automation projects that you've been talking about?

Richard Tobin

executive
#23

I think that the bigger projects that are in flight, we're going to complete them. Those are longer-term projects that create value over a significant period of time. We clearly revisit all of our assumptions, both in variable costs and capital deployment as we get through the next couple of months or the next couple of quarters, for sure. In terms of working capital, the only areas that we've really built working capital over the last couple of years have been in our high-growth businesses. And then I think that we've called out before, because of this whole narrative around the timing of EMV demand that we've been holding excess inventory in that particular business, so we are able to respond to demand changes and demand conditions. All of our opcos are operating on an accordion, self-liquidating fashion. So we're -- we allow them to build working capital as long as the top line is going up, and the expectation is as the top line goes down, their balance sheet itself liquidate.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#24

[Audio Gap] scenario, combining that dynamic along with EMV then kind of rolling down as well as -- how much CapEx is kind of the nondiscretionary, but nonbigger projects? I mean is it a -- just remind us of what that number is?

Richard Tobin

executive
#25

I think I'd have to go back, and none of these 2 guys can help me here. But we are the 2 bigger -- we've got -- actually, let me think about this, we've got 3 big projects that we're completing this year that are structural, and I would say that they're not as on the run CapEx. We've got approximately $40 million of spend on the refrigeration automation, which is a -- this is us intervening in a large way. I think there's a net $30 million left of that project. And I think we've probably got another $20 million to go on our greenfield site for CPC, which is a brand-new plant because that business has been growing in the high teens now for 3 years in a row. So it's just outliving its asset base. So if I strip out those 2, we're talking about approximately $50 million this year of non-reoccurring.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#26

That's -- I mean those are some pretty decent-sized numbers. So we'll look forward to -- well, hopefully, don't go into recession, but that would seem to be the cash dynamics here. It would seem to be relatively positive for you guys, relative to earnings, of course.

Richard Tobin

executive
#27

Yes. I mean, but we're generating of operating cash flow of close to $1 billion. So again, I think that we can flex. And if we're liquidating working capital at the same time, I don't think it's an issue. And we don't have any reason to stop those projects.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#28

Right. When you think about the portfolio on both sides, where do you feel comfortable taking your leverage? Do you look at an opportunity like if the market continues to kind of go down here, we go into recession, do you look at that as an opportunity to, hey, we got to pull back and kind of conserve capital? Or do you get a little more aggressive on perhaps some opportunistic M&A?

Richard Tobin

executive
#29

Yes, that's a good question. I guess, that's kind of how bad does it get question to a certain extent, but let me step back and say based on where we see conditions today. We would be hopeful that we could take advantage of this -- that asset values are coming down, and we could take advantage of it to the extent we can. My experience has been in market dislocations, such as this, that assets just don't come to market or quality assets don't come to market. What's going to come to market is distressed assets, and that's not really our business here. So while we remain in an opportunistic stance, I think it's more likely under current conditions for capital return strategies rather than inorganic, but we'll remain opportunistic if something comes along.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#30

How much leverage would you be willing to add? I mean, you guys aren't exactly under-levered, I don't think, but you're not over-levered either, kind of down the middle. Would you go in that and turn leverage? Or...

Richard Tobin

executive
#31

Look, I think that we've disclosed that before, Steve, and go back and take a look at our full year presentation and our September presentation. Now clearly, I think we would not use all of our remaining leverage because there's some question about what's going on in the fixed income markets about their view on what is investment-grade and not. So clearly, we're not going to bet the farm tomorrow morning here, but we have ample room in terms of balance sheet capability.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#32

Right, right. Okay. And then on the flip side, any -- you like the portfolio the way it is. Is there -- I know you guys have talked about continual pruning and obviously always evaluating. But any update on the kind of a sell-side of the equation?

Richard Tobin

executive
#33

We just announced a disposal out of the refrigeration business. So we sold a business for the service portion, which is approximately $50 million of revenue that consists not a business we want to be in. So we will continue to be opportunistic to prune the portfolio at the end of the day, but I don't see any significant moves under current conditions in the portfolio for a variety of reasons. I mean we've got our head down here in trying to protect profitability, I think, here going forward in terms of spreads.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#34

Right. Turning to the businesses. Refrigeration, it just seems like an industry that is, I guess, stable now. How would you characterize the macro there? CapEx -- customer CapEx seems kind of stable for the time being, but there just doesn't seem to be much growth. It seems that businesses had a few fall starts over the years. What's your latest and greatest take on refrigeration, both macro and micro?

Richard Tobin

executive
#35

Yes, I think that we were -- just because of the stops and starts over the last couple of years, we are really cautious in terms of the revenue line. So our -- if you go back and look at our guidance, I think we're 0 to 1 or 0 to 2 in terms of top line. It is a replacement business, for sure. Up until at least today, if I look at our backlogs, we're in a pretty good position, but that's going to be fluid going from here. So we are sizing the business not for robust growth. We think that we're in a secular replacement. We've got a massive installed base. So there's a lot of opportunity for us in terms of -- even in a low growth environment to improve profitability from some of the actions that we're taking.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#36

And is there any catalysts into the future to get this thing growing? I mean, is there -- are there refrigerant regulations? Is there anything in the next couple of years that you can point to that would be a catalyst for a pickup?

Richard Tobin

executive
#37

I think that there's individual smaller pieces within there. But a macro catalyst, no.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#38

Right. Right. Okay. And as far as the margin there, any opportunities around more favorable price cost this year, given what's happening -- what's happened to raws, maybe a comment across the portfolio. But usually, I think of refrigeration as being pretty exposed or not necessarily exposed in a bad way, but certainly levered to that kind of dynamic?

Richard Tobin

executive
#39

Sure. Well, look, I mean, even with a, let's call it, flat top line, we are looking for a step-change in price cost on the back of the investments we're making, number one, particularly refrigeration. I can't size on raws yet because that's new news. So we're -- believe me, to the extent that we can take advantage of prices coming down in sheet metal and over in cast iron, we'll take that into account and squeeze as much as we can. But right now, I can't size it for you.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#40

In the rest of that portfolio, the food equipment related stuff, any risk there with what's going on with people just not going out or not going to school or not concrete anywhere? Have you -- have your guys -- I know this is kind of day-to-day, but would there be perhaps a little more risk in that business in this kind of current environment?

Richard Tobin

executive
#41

We had a big, long discussion about it yesterday, and I've heard both a positive scenario because we are more commercially exposed, that under the current environment that a lot of people not going to restaurants, we're going to flex back into Domino's Pizza and those type of applications, and that's where the preponderance of our revenue is. But look, I think that we need to see some hard data points in terms of changes in backlog and everything else to really get on the other side of it. But we don't have consumer exposure, if you will, in terms of that particular product line.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#42

Right, right. And when you think about kind of a longer-term potential for those businesses, I mean, is there -- could that be a focus for building a bit more critical mass and a bit more of a solution there or you're pretty happy with those businesses the way they are?

Richard Tobin

executive
#43

I don't think -- I don't think that there's -- other than SWEP, there is not an argument to scale to increase profitability. I think the increase in profitability is in our own hands.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#44

Right. And then when it comes to SWEP, maybe you could -- what do you see there? Just talk about what the opportunity is there.

Richard Tobin

executive
#45

Yes. A portion of the $15 million to $20 million is SWEP in China, because SWEPs got a lot of those types of refrigeration. Air-conditioning units are built in China. So a material portion of that $15 million to $20 million is there. Backlogs in SWEP in Europe are robust, so we're working to see how much we can offset on what we've taken in Q1, and we're happy with the product line. We're investing in SWEP in terms of capacity expansion in our Slovakian site, and we're investing in Sweden on our XL and XXL product lines, which goes into industrial chillers with under greenhouse gas emissions and the like, we believe, has got structural growth behind it.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#46

Right. So is there an opportunity to add to that? Or is that just more of an organic exercise?

Richard Tobin

executive
#47

We would like to, but that is a very attractive space for all of the market participants. We get a lot of calls inbound on SWEP, and we're happy to keep it, but the assets are few and far between.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#48

Who are the competitors there? Remind us. Is that -- would be, sort of a Danfoss or something like that?

Richard Tobin

executive
#49

Yes, yes.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#50

Okay. Got it. Looking at fueling solutions, can we just talk about how that -- how you expect that business to play out. It's going to have -- it seems like it's going to have a good EMV-driven cycle here in '20, maybe a bit of a headwind from China. But how does this play out over the next couple of years for the retail fueling side?

Richard Tobin

executive
#51

As we mentioned in the guidance for the year, we thought if there was one area of the portfolio that may have some upside in it despite the Chinese headwinds, it would have been in fueling solutions. That got off to a very good start, despite the Chinese headwind, which was exasperated by the fact that we had to take shutdowns in our production sites. So right now, sitting here, it looks to be a potential outperformer in the group, subject to changes in market conditions.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#52

And then how does that kind of play through? How do you look at the '21, '22, kind of time frame?

Richard Tobin

executive
#53

Hard to say, but a lot of -- we still have a lot of self-help. So we've increased margins materially in fueling solutions over the last couple of years, whereby no means best-in-class. And I think that we've got a lot of plans in place that are not tied to revenue that we believe we can extract additional margin opportunity.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#54

What -- can you maybe quantify kind of the magnitude there a bit? Because you're obviously going to see -- revenues will likely be down in '21 and '22. Is that the correct way to think about it as to the magnitude?

Richard Tobin

executive
#55

Look, remember, Steve, that you've got to go take a look that this whole EMV narrative is a North American issue. Our exposure to North America is less than our prime competitor. So it's not insurmountable for us to make up that revenue headwind on the EMV roll-off with margin accretion across the portfolio and some growth in other regions around the world.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#56

How much cost do you think, kind of, exclusive of EMV? How much kind of visible margin opportunity do you think you have there?

Richard Tobin

executive
#57

I can't size it for you. If you remember, we stepped out there and gave an exit margin of 17%. I think no one believed when we put it out there, we actually exited above there on an exit rate. Look, we can see what GVR's margins are, and we believe that we've got that entitlement. We just got to have to work our way up.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#58

Right, right. Yes, makes sense. On the product ID business. Can that -- is that the type of business that -- I know that part of it is cyclical, but obviously, you've got the consumer element that is much more of a run rate steady business. Is that a business that you think can hold and be flat to up in a kind of a down 5% IP environment? Or are there exposures there that we aren't quite appreciating. This would be outside of the digital printing side of the equation, just the core product ID business.

Richard Tobin

executive
#59

Yes. Well, I can only look at Q1 this year where the consumable portion of the business held up quite well and then the equipment side in Asia, as expected, because of all the shutdowns was a bit soft. Now having said that, we've taken significant amount of cost to that -- out of that business in the tail end of '19, and we made a decent acquisition that, we believe, at the beginning of '20. So right now, as we sit here, we think that we can offset kind of headwinds just because of the proportionality of the consumables portion to offset any kind of weakness that we have on the equipment side.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#60

How much do you think -- how much is just for reference sake? Is equipment down 10%?

Richard Tobin

executive
#61

I have to go look off the top of my head. I mean, it's not overly material. We have -- it's the biggest exposure that we have in the group to China. And I know equipment is down, but I don't want to start throwing percentages around and sizing it. I mean, we can follow up with that.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#62

Okay. Sorry, I had to ask, trying to get as much visibility on these markets as possible. Is this an area where you'd like to do more deals? And you did the digital printing side, which is somewhat related, but a bit of an adjacency, not quite related to kind of the core product ID that we've known over the last several years. Are there more opportunities here on an M&A basis, a scenario that you have to add to going forward?

Richard Tobin

executive
#63

There's some tertiary ones on the Printing & ID side. I mean it's a very consolidated market, clearly, but there are some adjacencies and some smaller things that you can do. The Systech acquisition that we did is a prime example. That's not -- it doesn't have a printing element in it, but it's track and trace, so it's aligned for pretty much what we do. So we look at it though, where do we have the right and -- in terms of our customer exposure and what kind of adjacencies can we bring. But in terms of competitors or direct competitors to Printing ID, that space has largely been consolidated.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#64

Right, right. Just moving on to the pumps and process businesses. How much visibility do you have here? And you definitely don't have as much oil and gas exposures you had before, but there's a bit of petrochem. And I know that there's a decent China exposure in Maag here, I believe. How do you see the risk in this business playing out with the process industries looking a little bit more tenuous with the oil and gas price declines?

Richard Tobin

executive
#65

Yes. I think our backlog still remain robust. But clearly, our precision components business is going to come under some amount of pressure there with the dislocation in terms of the petroleum pricing. And so we're already working on some things that we can do to offset that. So we had that business actually forecasted to grow this year. It's unlikely to do so. So now it's just purely a question of protecting the margins there. We probably have the levers to do it. There is some -- Maag right now is much longer-term projects that go back to my comments about where we've got committed capital. You can't turn those off mid-flight. It's the same thing on the process side for Maag. So our expectation right now is that those projects get completed. Now the timing may shift a little bit, but they'll get completed over time. The pump side, there's a little bit of weakness, we would expect, on the oil and gas complex, which is not overly represented. But we believe now that our CPC business is going to be able to offset that weakness sitting here today.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#66

Right. And I guess, what are -- how should we think about the margin entitlement for this business longer term?

Richard Tobin

executive
#67

It's mix related, mostly. It's not a lot of operational efficiency. There is an amount of volume leverage in it. But if you've got a business like CPC that continues to grow in high teens, that is margin accretion -- margin accretive to the portfolio. And I think that we've got a variety of different new products on the traditional pump side that we believe are going to be mix accretive even off something as small as All-Flo is accretive in terms of product portfolio there. So not a lot of kind of let's go intervene on the footprint and reduce SKUs, which is going on in Refrigeration & Fueling Solutions. This is more on product mix and investing behind the growth that is margin accretive.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#68

Right. And has there been -- is there a bit of an investment cycle there where they're -- you've been spending a decent amount? How kind of refreshed is that portfolio relative to the last couple of years?

Richard Tobin

executive
#69

I think that we're in good shape. I think that the amount of R&D relative to sales across the entire portfolio is robust, and it benchmarks well. Actually, benchmarks better than some of our pure play comps. So I think they've done a good job of increasing margins while investing in the portfolio. We got a lot of good stuff in the pipe in that particular segment.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#70

And then one last question for you. I know we talked a bit about performance in a tougher environment. It doesn't sound to me like that there is another big bang restructuring that you are willing to do if things are kind of soft in the economy. Maybe there is. If we start to see broad-based kind of IP declines in the mid-single digits, should we expect you guys to step up the restructuring? Or is this, again, more about just doing what you already have the visibility around and the structure of the business has kind of take care of the rest?

Richard Tobin

executive
#71

Look, we've got a variety of different things going on in the group that ultimately will result in us taking restructuring costs, but those are multiyear projects that we have as we look at our business. But let me be clear, it's kind of like the working capital. Depending on the environment, we will intervene on the cost structure across the portfolio. That's not restructuring. That's just manual intervention adapting the cost structure of these individual businesses based on a realistic demand cycle without damaging them.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#72

Right. And then sorry, one last one, just on engineered. The -- I'm not sure kind of what to make of this portfolio. It's a little more diversified. It's a little bit like kind of the old Dover. Is this an area that you're going to be focused on from a portfolio perspective? And I would think that, in general, this is probably one of the more cyclical segments outside of perhaps the waste management and municipal government aspect of it.

Richard Tobin

executive
#73

I don't think it's overly cyclical. I mean the 2 big heavy weights in that portion of the portfolio are ESG, which is the environmental services group that we've been investing in that I would argue is done. In terms of digital-facing revenue, it's probably been the best performer that we've had in the group in terms of transforming that business from a capital goods supplier to a systems solutions business. On VSG, which is on the aftermarket auto, we're not tied -- we're not tier 1. So it's all aftermarket and the size of the park at the end of the day. So I don't believe that they're overly volatile. They've got scale, and they benchmark very well. VSG, extremely well in terms of its profitability metric. So those are businesses and the like that we're willing to invest bond.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#74

Got it. Operator, can we open it up to see if there's going to be on the line that wants to ask a question here towards the end.

Operator

operator
#75

[Operator Instructions]

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#76

Rich, one question for you all, while anybody is queuing up. One more for me. How do you -- you've been through a few cycles. How does this feel and acknowledging there's uncertainty? I mean, does this feel like there's just too many negatives that we're ultimately going to see kind of a tougher recessionary type of environment? What's your take on just as a CEO of a sizable publicly traded company? What's your take on this current environment?

Richard Tobin

executive
#77

I'm extremely pleased how our Chinese operations adapted to the situation, right? They took quick action. Nobody panicked. And they got up and running quicker than our early estimates. Italy, we'll see. So I think that we've got the organizational capability to deal with this. But at the end of the day, we're going to be responding to a fluid situation about this is a crisis of confidence, right, because of the fact that this issue of -- if you take a look at the amount of infected people globally versus the draconian -- almost draconian kind of actions to be taken, we find it somewhat troubling. So I'm hoping that cooler heads prevail, and we work our way through this.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#78

Right. Do you see a recession on the -- come here with what you've seen in the last few weeks?

Richard Tobin

executive
#79

I don't know, I think that the Chinese went in a 10-week period, went from cordoning off large cities to coming back and being up and running. Now the demand function is still not there, but the capability is back and ready to go. So if you go through that in Europe and the United States, and that's what it takes, and it looks like we have the potential for a V-shaped recovery, but it's hard to say.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#80

Yes, yes. Operator, any questions out there?

Operator

operator
#81

And we are showing no questions.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#82

Okay. 0 for 8 fireside chats with client questions. On that note, Rich, thank you so much for being flexible and dealing with all the dial-in mania back and forth here. Please, both you guys and everybody at Dover, stay safe and healthy, and we will talk to you in April. Hopefully, this thing will have cleared to agree by then.

Richard Tobin

executive
#83

Great. Thanks, Steve. Take care of yourself.

C. Stephen Tusa

analyst
#84

All right. Thanks. Take it easy. Bye-bye.

Operator

operator
#85

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do appreciate your attendance. You may disconnect at this time.

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