Dream Office Real Estate Investment Trust (DUN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 5, 2022

Toronto Stock Exchange CA Real Estate Office REITs earnings 57 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Dream Office REIT Q2 2022 Conference Call for Friday, August 5, 2022. During this call, management of Dream Office REIT may make statements containing forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream Office REIT's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in Dream Office REIT's filings with securities regulators, including its latest annual information form and MD&A. These filings are also available on Dream Office REIT's website at www.dreamofficereit.ca. Later in the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your host for today will be Mr. Michael Cooper, Chair and CEO of Dream Office REIT. Sir, please go ahead.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#2

Thank you very much, operator, and good morning to everybody. Welcome to Dream Office's second quarter conference call. Today I'm here with Gord Wadley, the Chief Operating Officer; and Jay Jiang, the Chief Financial Officer. And they'll speak to the results. I just want to start with a couple of opening comments on what's happening at Dream Office. Firstly, we're very pleased with the assets that we own. We did a lot of work to reduce the portfolio to these assets. We spent a lot of time improving the assets, decarbonizing the assets. And I think we've got sensational assets that are irreplaceable. The office sector is a complicated sector in a complicated time. So what we're finding now is -- like, as an example, we'd like to redo our space and make it a little bit more modern. However, we're really not sure how we should change our office space because we're not convinced how it's going to be used. Now I met with a few other CEOs, who are in exactly the same position. All of whom want to have the same amount of space as they have now. But we're still uncertain. So we've been seeing a lot more people coming Downtown. We're really pleased that the demand for restaurants Downtown is huge. There's a lot more traffic. And we think this fall, we're going to see a lot more people. So I think things are coming around and we expect that as we head into the fall, we'll see a lot more people in the office and we expect to see some more leasing. We're pleased that in the first 6 months of the year, we've had consistent occupancy. And Gord will get into a little bit about some of the delays. But we've got some wonderful restaurants that have made commitments to our buildings. And we think that not only will they be great tenants, they'll also attract other great tenants. So as we look forward, we're still a little bit uncertain what normal occupancy is. We believe it's significantly higher than where we are now. We're just not certain as to how long it may take to hit the new normal. But we think there's a lot of embedded value in our business. And I think that our valuations of the assets have been pretty conservative over the last 2.5 years. And notwithstanding that, between cash that we're retaining and the industrial REIT's performance, we've seen that asset value grow consistently. Gord, you want to get into the operations?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#3

I will. Thanks, Michael. It's very nice to be with you all today, and I hope everyone's doing really well. Much in line with what Michael just stated, as our industry continues to navigate what fulsome return to work looks like, specifically to our clients, prospective tenants in various industries, our team is staying in the course to offer best-in-class operations, an elevated level of hospitality, building quality and to drive leasing as we wrap up construction to future proof our portfolio for the long term. The city of Toronto has seen market vacancy grow and stabilize from pre-pandemic levels of just around 2% to the current levels of about 14% across all classes. Our portfolio has moved in lockstep with this trend, where our core portfolio, relating to current and committed occupancy, on average is trending at approximately 89%, which is up just over 20 basis points from last quarter. Although we saw some positive momentum, there is some tempered optimism from leasing, operations and construction as our clients, albeit slower than expected, begin to open their doors and come back to work, or like Michael said, are diligently planning on coming back potentially in the fall after Labor Day. We are seeing some positive variables that indicate improvements of occupancy long term. As our tours are consistently growing week to week, suddenly spaces stabilize, now representing only about 2% of our portfolio. We're tracking already this year to do more square footage absorbed than last year and complete a higher number of both new leases and renewals. Net rents are trending quite strong with the average well over $30 a square foot across all of Toronto. In parallel to this, we're seeing strong NERs despite cost pressures associated with construction, procurement of deliveries and materials and the time it takes to build. In our other markets portfolio, current and committed occupancy remained largely unchanged quarter-over-quarter at 79%. We're seeing better tour and deal velocity in Saskatchewan, where we did about 38,000 square feet beginning of the year. Again, rates and NERs of 16% and 60% respectively compared to our budget. Overall across all markets, we're quite pleased with how our team has managed communications with existing tenants and clients. Collections are back up at pre-pandemic levels of over 99%, and this is also signified by over 75% retention ratio at midyear for 2022. Year-to-date leasing volume has picked up versus last year as we've done about 343,000 square feet, totaling just about 55 deals, both new and renewable. These are all at pre-pandemic rates and NERs. And I just wanted to note that this is probably -- already approximately 100,000 square feet more than this point last year. We have some cautious optimism with the additional 150,000 square feet of LOIs and conditional deals in very negotiation, which we will report on in subsequent quarters. One key driver of your future success that I just want to touch on is our curated retail strategy. Over the past few quarters, we've been highlighting the negotiations and prospect of completing 4 very marquee deals on our Bay Street Collection. We're very proud to say today that we've completed 3 of these deals with arguably Canada's top restaurant tours that total approximately 30,000 square feet, and we have 2 additional marquee deals that are conditional. Our completed retail deals are not reflected in this quarter's stats and just firmed up in the past few days. When complete, this will total approximately 50,000 square feet of total absorption at aaverage net rents close to $70 a square foot, an annualized NOI impact of just over $3 million. These are all in our most desirable node and it will finish off and support our thesis of bringing in elevated and all new experience boutique luxury to the financial tour. The global challenges associated with construction have been very well publicized. Our teams worked very hard through supply challenges, mandating construction shutdowns, and have managed well and are over 95% complete in our Bay Street Collection project with all the bathrooms, all the lobbies and our feature alleyway all complete. We're effectively just finishing up the full glazing re-facade program at 330 Bay. This is scheduled to be completed at the end of September. We are all well underway at 36 Bay and tracking quite well to budget for this 40,000 square foot asset. The feedback has been tremendous to-date and we're receiving a steady influx of tours. We really look forward to showing you the completed product, and hopefully we'll get a chance to walk you through in person very soon. For 356 Bay, some context. We're looking at spending about $16 million on a $22 million building. We anticipate a positive value increase upon construction completion at the end of Q1 2023. In unison with this project, we're also doing 67 Richmond, which we previously had on the books for about $30 million. We injected about another $12 million in capital and upon completion, we're targeting about a 5.5% yield on an adjusted cost base. We took both buildings offline as these are full deep retrofits, where we were replacing all the building systems, ensuring we meet our GHG reduction targets, introducing all new control technologies, new lobbies, new bathrooms and curtain walls to bring in more light penetration and also have a direct bird's eye view of our alleyway project and the great animation associated with it. We often get asked by people on this call regarding 357 Bay. Our client is well into their fit-up and doing a great job on what's going to be a showcase location for them. As context, we spent about $29 million on time and on budget, took a building that was valued at about $24 million to now over $62 million. And we also dramatically decarbonized and fully removed over 30 tonnes of asbestos, added an all new HVAC and mechanical to make this a stainable, clean example of what a premier heritage asset should look like in the [ group ]. Being a good community steward is absolutely core to our business. By upgrading our assets, we put a real focus on improving consumption metrics and that of GHG and carbon utilization associated with our overall net zero strategy. We're actively working with CIB on our $113 million debt facility to dramatically reduce our carbon emissions by 40% over the next 3 years and adhere to our very lofty goal to be net zero by 2031. These initiatives are at the forefront of what we hope will separate us from all our peers. As a landlord and a leader, we have a tremendous opportunity to influence and improve our carbon footprint, and in turn, align with the growing sustainability demands of our clients. Last year, we had the country's best first GRESB score of 91, and our team has been working very hard on building on that momentum for year-end equal or a better score. Also, we had the country's top Sustainalytics score and are among the top 10% in this rating globally. Sustainalytics is a Morningstar company that rates sustainability of listed companies based on their environmental, social, corporate governance performance and it effectively applies a risk rating. In addition, we're a signatory to UNPRI and we also committed to Net Zero Asset Managers, which stem from COP 26 and represents the largest organization of asset managers globally. Leasing and operating metrics aside, the general public, corporations and our government at all levels over the past few years have become much more sophisticated in understanding the importance of these ESG verticals, and as such, have been tremendous partners, supporters and advocates to integrate programs into our hard assets, making them much more resilient and appealing to various churning tenants. Operating leases are a key component of this commitment that tenants are making to their physical space and work environments. This past quarter, I'm very proud of the team as we are awarded certified platinum and recognized by Green Lease Leaders Association as having the most sustainable lease and operating standards in all of Canada. Creating healthy and positive buildings has always been a cornerstone of our Dream Office approach and a real source of pride for our team. As a company, we're very fortunate to have focused on great buildings and in irreplaceable locations and used our capital and time to improve our buildings to a whole new standard of boutique luxury that focuses on sustainability, hospitality and community stewardship. As always, I always welcome an opportunity to show or share in person our progress. And please stay tuned for some very exciting announcements from our new committed retail partners. With that, I'll turn it over to Jay.

Jay Jiang

executive
#4

Thanks a lot, Gord. Good morning, everybody. Originally, our goal for 2022 has been to minimize the word COVID so we can manage our business in a more normalized operating state, both economically and psychologically. While that has been true to some extent with COVID coming up less in our conversations, we now find ourselves in a rather uncertain economic environment, facing significant supply chain disruptions, high inflationary environment and rising interest rates. The return to work for larger users of office space in Toronto has lagged a bit as a result of the summer and a competitive labor market. However, we are seeing good progress and improvements in utilization of both our office buildings and parking garages. We believe post Labor Day will be a meaningful milestone to see increasing activity from both existing and prospective tenants. We think despite all these challenges noted above, our company has continuously delivered stable results over the past few years. We own a very well located portfolio of assets in Downtown Toronto, and if we take good care of them through our modernization and decarbonisation programs, we can capitalize on flight to quality and have a very valuable and safe portfolio of assets that we will be happy to own for a very long time. On the quarter, we recorded $0.38 of diluted FFO per unit or flat year-over-year. We had income contribution from completed development and also a share with higher income from our Dream Industrial REIT investments, offset by lower in-place occupancy, higher interest expenses and drop off of onetime income in the comparative periods such as the wage subsidy programs. Our committed occupancy was unchanged quarter-over-quarter at 85%, which consisted of 20 basis points increase in Downtown Toronto and 30 basis points decrease in other markets. We have less than 150,000 square feet of expiry consisting of 33 leases for the remainder of the year, which we feel is quite manageable, especially considering that paired against 150,000 square feet of deals that we are currently in negotiations for. Now as an update to our internal model. We are currently projecting diluted FFO per unit of approximately $1.50 for 2022. We have factored in higher interest rates as refinancing and variable rates are up 200 basis points since January and also reflected the timing of lease commencements that have been signed to date. Now for clarity, we are tracking well against budget on committed occupancy targets of around 90% in Downtown Toronto and 80% in other markets. However, these prospective tenants, most notably the restaurants, have lagged a bit in taking possession of the space due to longer than anticipated fixturing period caused by supply chain disruptions and elevated construction costs. We'd like to highlight that the leases signed this quarter we're at very healthy spreads at 48% higher than expiry in Toronto, and we are getting record rents on our retail and restaurant spaces, which have not yet been reflected in the results. This means, for the purpose of modeling, some of the budgeted NOI that was originally anticipated in the second half of the year will be recognized in the first half of 2023, which will contribute favorably to stabilize cash flow and value. Our Q2 NAV was $32.83, which is relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. Given the backdrop of interest rate and cap rate sensitivities, we reviewed our valuation assumptions in detail this quarter. Under the direct cap method, our Downtown Toronto assets or 80% of our portfolio by fair value is using a stabilized cap rate of approximately 4.8% and market rents of just over $31. Our cap rates remain comfortably within the midpoint ranges of latest published broker and appraiser cap rate surveys, and our signed leases year-to-date have been higher than published market rents. When we reconcile this methodology to discount cash flow models and latest available private market trade data, we think our assets' values are quite reasonable. Our balance sheet remains very safe. We have $145 million of cash availability on our credit facility and $130 million available on the Canadian Infrastructure Bank facility that can be used for building retrofit and GHG emission reduction programs. We think we have ample liquidity and resources for all operational capital needs for the foreseeable future. For the remainder of the year, unsurprisingly, our focus is to lease space, because that is a driver and outlet for cash flow as to liquidity, value and investor sentiment. We are encouraged that the building capital we invested across Bay Street is starting to show fruition and the restaurant reit will significantly increase rents, value and tenant appeal across our portfolio. We intend to adopt a similar type of buildings across all of our capital initiatives, including 2 smaller development projects at 356 Bay and 67 Richmond. We are conscious to improve the value and return on capital on every dollar invested on behalf of our unit holders. Beyond leasing and value add capital, our NCIB program is renewing in August and we intend to continue to repurchase our units on an opportunistic basis given the disconnect between implied valuations versus the price acquired or to grow the new property today. Overall, we'll remain cognizant over the challenges of managing a commercial office business. But we just want to say that we remain very committed to the company because we see significant value and quality in our assets. Operator, we're happy to take any questions now.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] And we have our first question from Sairam Srinivas with Cormark Securities.

Sairam Srinivas

analyst
#6

And my first question is for Gord. Gord, in terms of the back to office momentum, what are you hearing from your tenants in terms of their plans heading into the fall? As well as generally in terms of office utilization rates, how was it been looking for Q2 and right now, post quarter?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#7

Yes, that's a good question. You broke up a little bit on there, but I think you asked what we've been seeing and what kind of trends we've been seeing from our tenants on their return to work. That's the first part of the question?

Sairam Srinivas

analyst
#8

Yes.

Gordon Wadley

executive
#9

Effectively, what we've seen in a lot of our private sector tenants, we've seen a bit more of an appetite on them working with us to understand what our back to work policies are, the improvements that we've done so they can communicate them with their tenant. Get them on boarded, feeling comfortable about coming back. And we've seen a big difference -- to be quite candid with you, we've seen a big difference at the occupancy levels of our private sector tenants versus our public sector tenants. In our private sector tenants, we're probably seeing just over about a 50% or 60% occupancy ratio based on people coming through doors, checking through. Our public sector tenants is a bit of a different story. It's a bit of a lower occupancy ratio. But what we've been doing is communicating with them, working with them. What we're hearing at the federal and provincial level is we'll start to see a lot more traction after Labor Day in getting people back into the office. So really, for us, it's just been communicating what our operating protocols are, putting them on paper and sharing them with our tenants so they can in turn share them with their clients and their staff so people feel more comfortable getting back. And then doing a lot of tours and walking them through and showing them the improvements that we've done around UV technologies and the HVAC, the elevators and just raising the overall comfort level. So right now, I'd say private sector tenants 50% to 60% back in the office, public sector much lower. But we're pretty optimistic that the public sector tenants will start to come back in earnest from September. And then my apologies. The second part of your question, I didn't quite get because the phone line broke up.

Sairam Srinivas

analyst
#10

Gordon, I think you answered my question because it was basically on utilization rates. So I think there was good color. Just probably being back on the public side, would you say that the number is closer about 30% to 40%, I guess, in terms of occupancy?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#11

Yes. You know what? It's really department driven. I'd say that's a really good number to say. If it's a lot of back office, it's more to about 30% right now. But we have some client-facing public sector tenants. That is at a much higher occupancy level. So it's really department specific. If you're working in finance or revenue for the federal or provincial government, you may not need to be in as much. But if you're working for passports, immigration, infrastructure, they generally seem to be a little more.

Sairam Srinivas

analyst
#12

That makes sense. And my last question, I guess, is for Jay. Jay, I know last quarter you kind of guided in terms of occupancy being -- or maybe I think it's in Q4, when you guided for the occupancy being fairly stable for the rest of 20 -- in '22? Is that something you probably maintain right now? Or do you see any tenants leaving?

Jay Jiang

executive
#13

Yes, that's a good question. So most of our maturities happen in the first half of the year. For the rest of the year -- in my prepared remarks, I said we only have 150,000 spread across 33 leases. So the point there was it's quite manageable, 1 and 2. There's a lot of leases block and tackle. So we feel like we can address most of them. And we have stabilized our committed occupancy around the 90%, which was our original goal. And that is really what we see as a driver of value and cash flow looking out into 2023. So we're quite optimistic today about that. Just on the in-place occupancy, where we're a bit lighter. Our comments were that the tenants are taking a bit longer than previously or pre-COVID in terms of taking the space and getting their fixtures done. So what we're seeing now is a lag for a bigger spread between in-place and committed occupancy, let's call it, around 200 basis points. So we're quite comfortable in hitting our committed. It's pretty accurate, and what really we're focused on. But the in-place will lag a little bit just on our composition. The nature of the leases that we're signing, they're a bit more complicated, restaurant, larger and more unique tenants. And the supply chain disruptions, that's giving them a bit more time to do their construction work.

Operator

operator
#14

Our next question comes from Mark Rothschild with Canaccord Genuity.

Mark Rothschild

analyst
#15

Maybe just to start -- and it is for Michael. If you could expand a little bit on the capital program as far as how you look at whether you want to sell more assets or buy back units? And you have some projects going on with Investment Properties? How you look at that over the next year?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#16

I think we started a lot of programs with the idea of creating excellent buildings, and we're continuing with that. On the development front, we pretty much delayed things a little bit because we don't really want to put the capital into it now. We're still bullish on buying back stock. And I think that we've got the liquidity to do that and we've got other sources of liquidity if we need it. So I would say we're not looking to do any acquisitions. We're probably spending less money on our existing buildings that we planned. But the key things were continuous -- new developments we'll take a look. 2200 Eglinton is coming along, and we could bring in a partner there if we choose. And that could help with liquidity and also development. But for the most part, we want to see -- just continuing with what we've been doing.

Mark Rothschild

analyst
#17

Okay. Great. And it does sound like there's some good leasing going on. The TIs were up in the quarter. To what extent -- is that a trend? Or is that maybe just some specific leases this quarter? Obviously, any different quarter could jump around.

Gordon Wadley

executive
#18

Yes, that's a good question you point out, Mark. The cost in the TIs have been higher due in large part to construction costs. Jay has summed it in his remarks a little bit that construction costs kind of quarter-over-quarter has escalated quite a bit from materials. And not just procurement on materials, it's securing trade and executing on time. And that's been one of the biggest factors that we've seen. We had to put a little bit more money in the deal just to try to accelerate and get the space built in time. But it's just a combination of materials and getting this forward to do the work as well, too, is proving a bit of a challenge that I think all landlords are dealing with right now.

Mark Rothschild

analyst
#19

So this is more to do with -- from my view then, more to do with just the cost of getting these done and not so much a change in or increased demand from tenants?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#20

Yes, I think more costs in getting things done. And to be honest with you, too, Mark, tenants have a little bit more leverage with the growth in vacancy over the last quarter or 2 than they traditionally have been in the past. So we're starting to see a little bit more requests on potentially free rent -- in terms of free rent as well, too, which sometimes we'll bake into the deals and we'll have a clarity on it.

Operator

operator
#21

We have our next question from Matt Kornack with National Bank Financial.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#22

With regards to the property you have for sale or in the process of selling in Saskatoon, can you give us a sense as to who the buyer is? And also what the NOI impact would be from the sale of that, if it is -- if it goes through?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#23

Sure. It will be a domestic buyer, but the source of the capital may be from outside of real estate if it's private buyer and it's strategic for them. And in terms of the impact on the financials, the cap rate will be between 7% to 8%. But you know on free cash flow because there's a lot of capital commitments to it. You're looking at more like a 2.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#24

Yes. So sorry, 7% to 8% on in-place. There is not a stabilized number because it looks like most of the occupancies that you disclosed are a little lower in that market.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#25

7% to 8% would be the in-place 4 quarter, annualized.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#26

Okay. Fair enough. And then on 67 Richmond, did that contribute to NOI at all in Q2? Or was it already vacated throughout most of the quarter?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#27

Yes. Very, very nominal. That was basically -- we have the planning for this building to become our next hot project for over a year now. And it was just fortunate that the tenancy has been coming up. And we already had pulled out a couple of test cases with 357 Bay. And the capital we're putting Bay Street. And that we retained strong traction on the retail and restaurant side, it was natural for this to become the next building. And we're quite excited to bring this to the market when it's ready.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#28

And then I think Gord said $12 million of CapEx associated with the repositioning of that. Is that correct?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#29

That's correct, Matt.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#30

Okay. And last one, Gord. Just in terms of -- I missed your commentary in terms of the timing as to when you'd expect the restaurants to be in their space and the space to be fit out? And then maybe as an ancillary question on 357 Bay. Do you have a sense as to when WeWork would maybe be fitting out their space in terms of getting that Bay Street corridor looking to its best shape?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#31

Yes. So both good questions. So we weren't actively working on that space right now. They anticipated in early Q1 completion date. I was just in there the other day doing a tour, and it was incredible. They're starting to do a great job. The exterior was great as well too. And the work we've done is really strong for the building. On the restaurant side, Matt, there's going to be a couple of different dates. Our partners are pretty particular on when they launch. But we're actively doing the construction on one of our very large restaurant spaces right now. We're well underway. And we anticipate that potentially kind of summer, fall of next year we'll be in a position to be opening the cash flows in that space.

Matt Kornack

analyst
#32

Okay. Perfect. And then sorry, Jay, one last follow-up on the timing of the Saskatoon disposition. Should we expect that to close in the near term? Or is it that far out in the process?

Jay Jiang

executive
#33

You never know as trends are going today, but we're hopeful that we can wrap up the rest of the paperwork, and let's see, probably 30, 50 days close.

Operator

operator
#34

We have our next question from Scott Fromson with CIBC.

Scott Fromson

analyst
#35

I was just wondering what impact are you seeing from the tech slowdown in terms of current tenants? Are they looking to downsize or put space up for sublease?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#36

Yes. So in our portfolio, Scott, it hasn't changed too much really since the beginning of the pandemic. Most of our larger tech tenants, we've already had discussions earlier in the past 2 years. So I don't foresee us getting any surprises internally from the slowdown. But just as some general market color. I am hearing and seeing that there will be some more sublet space coming on in the financial corridor and the King West region from some tech users. But for the most part, in the financial corridor, the buildings that we own, I think, we're going to weather the tech slow down quite well just because we don't have as much exposure and we've just been consistently and constantly communicating with them. And one of our larger tech tenants, we're actually well underway on communicating and extending as well. So we foresee that we're not going to see much [ this year anything ].

Scott Fromson

analyst
#37

And Gord, have you seen a change in tone and volume of discussions with prospective tenants, I guess, either in tech or other industries?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#38

Yes. I want to be cautiously optimistic about how I say this. So tours have picked up a little bit. But to be candid with you, Scott, deals are typically getting longer. And there's not the same sense of urgency that there was to get deals over the goal line, the big deals, as there were -- that we were seeing before 2020. Like I think there's activity there. People are still coming through the doors, are very keen on seeing what we've done and how we can lend ourselves to their business. But the deals in general are just taking longer. And I think tenants are starting to get reserved. In fact that building their space and mobilizing and moving over is taking longer as well, too. So we're starting to see a lot of tenants, quite frankly, pass the 2-year mark -- they may have 2 years, 2.5 years of term still on their existing space, already come a little bit earlier to get a sense of what we're doing so they can start to plan ahead on what their occupancy decisions are because it's just taking a little bit longer overall.

Scott Fromson

analyst
#39

And maybe sort of a follow-on on that. Putting aside the retail leasing component of new leases, can you comment on expected timing of closing the gap between in-place and committed occupancy?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#40

Jay and I were talking about this yesterday and what we're seeing from in-place and committed. We're hoping kind of by next summer, we'll be in a position where we'll see that gap closing a little bit. For us in our forecasts and how we've been looking at deals -- we've been pushing the deals out probably 2 to 3 months. It's usually taking 60 to 90 days more to get these deals commencing. You get the deal done, but it's 60 or 90 days more to do the fixturing and other things. So it's taking a little bit longer. So the gap right now is probably 2 to 3 months more than we've traditionally seen. And we're hoping things stabilize in terms of the labor and trade market a little bit more towards next summer. And we're in a position where we can see timely completion and cash flow close the gap a little bit.

Jay Jiang

executive
#41

So some key metrics. So I think by year-end, you'll see some meaningful progress on getting the in-place occupancies up. And it's always going to trail a little bit on any lease recertified over the next year or so. But a lot of the leases have been committed. And so the stat by Q4 will be pretty good. And then you'll gradually see the income pick up in Q1, Q2 by next summer. Or hopefully, our admitted occupancy will be a lot higher. And then you should probably see a nice handle on the in-place as well.

Scott Fromson

analyst
#42

And actually, maybe just one more for Jay. Are there any other major properties -- I mean -- I think sort of like 40,000 to -- 40,000 square feet plus that you're considering taking off-line for redevelopment?

Jay Jiang

executive
#43

At this rate, no. I think we're pretty much close to getting through the rest of the Bay Street assets. We will be doing a capital program on a selective basis and try to leverage our CIB program as well to decarbonize the building. But for entire building remodernization and redevelopment, I think that would probably be the last one for a while.

Operator

operator
#44

[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from Mario Saric with Scotiabank.

Mario Saric

analyst
#45

Maybe an operational question for Gord maybe to get more detail. But I'm curious. Did we keep stat on the percentage of tenants on the lease renewals that are kind of expanding versus contracting versus maintaining lease renewals? I guess the occupancy stats will highlight the trend. But just a bit curious to see if there's more kind of color on that front, and if you can separate it out between public versus private tenants and things?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#46

Yes. Mario, it's a good question. We don't per se keep stats necessarily on that. What I can say is a few of our bigger tenants, people on Bay Street and other groups, had downsized a little bit. What we're seeing from the government is that it's basically kind of a wait and see, stay in place. We're seeing some shorter-term renewals as in -- until they're in any position to make occupancy decision. So public sector for the most part, we haven't seen very much downsizing. Some of our larger tenants earlier on in the pandemic. And then as we saw over the course of the last year, we saw some marginal downsizing in 1 or 2 tenants. We saw -- in private sector, we saw a little bit bigger downsizing. But we're starting to see some tenants grow as well, too. We've got a lot of smaller tenants in our portfolio. So we're starting to see a lot of private sector tenants indicate that extra thousand square feet to put another boardroom, maybe do some exterior, perimeter offices. So it's a mix at this point. Mario, I've issued - I gave you a specific number. But if I could give you any real color, it would be that our public sector tenants are, for the most part, just kind of staying out there.

Mario Saric

analyst
#47

Would it be fair to say then like the larger tenants may be giving out a little bit space, but your average 5,000 square feet tenants are just kind [indiscernible] portfolio. So you're seeing contraction definitely from 5,000 square feet to 3,000 square feet? Or going from 5,000 to 0? Or going the other way?

Jay Jiang

executive
#48

Exactly. You said it exactly right. The 5,000 square foot tenants, they were basically going from 5,000 to 0 or they're picking up another 10%, 15%.

Mario Saric

analyst
#49

Okay. And then maybe shifting over to kind of capital allocation. On the NCIB, would it be fair to say that going forward given where leverage is and the concerns over cap rates moving up, broadly speaking, in the space, that the NCIB is getting more directly tied to asset dispositions, whether that's direct assets that's in Saskatoon or Dream Industrial units, for example? Or do you see yourself needing liquidity today if the unit price remains [indiscernible]?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#50

Yes. Yes, we're getting kind of steady [indiscernible]. So we're quite comfortable with the position we are in today. We obviously have a couple of levers to pull. I mean, the Dream Industrial units have been great to us over the past few years of fantastic fundamentals. But we have said many times it's not strategic. But just having them around is a good support, back up liquidity. And we can also marshal them and then develop an unencumbered asset pool. We do not have any restrictive covenants that prohibit us from tapping into the unencumbered pool. We have the Canadian Infrastructure Bank program to cover a lot of capital. So we are quite comfortable with the liquidity to use. But at the same time, we are open to selling assets outside of the core. [indiscernible] building. But there may be others. So we think we have a lot of levers to pull. And just the entire program itself, we estimate to be around $60 million. So it's not going to be a huge use of capital. So I think over the next year, we're quite comfortable with the liquidity and how we navigate it for the purpose of NCIB.

Mario Saric

analyst
#51

Got it. And then how do you think about -- I think Michael mentioned that you could potentially bring in a partner [indiscernible]. So how do you think about potentially sacrificing some long-term value creation if you bring in a partner today as opposed to like 2 years from now for liquidity to execute on the NCIB, which is more tangible and more short term in nature. How do you think about the short term versus the long term in terms of capital allocation, I guess, is the question?

Jay Jiang

executive
#52

I think it is...

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#53

Go ahead, Jay.

Jay Jiang

executive
#54

Okay. Maybe I'll start. You can jump in. So on Eglinton, we're working through the final phase in the rezoning right now. And the good thing about that development site is it could probably be [indiscernible] into 6 [indiscernible] phases. So we have a lot of flexibility in terms of when to bring in a partner and for -- whenever is the first phase of calling. And I think it's also residential, so that has a broader appeal right now with different sources of capital. If we can get the value for it, I think that's a win-win in terms of monetizing a good value on our books, which will help delever the balance sheet a little bit. And as you said, we'll be able to use that as a source of liquidity for the NCIB.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#55

Yes, I was going to say that it's -- it would get good value now because we're so far advance in the rezoning. And that project is probably a $1.6 billion project in total. So only half is still a major development. And it's probably more accessible for us than 100%.

Mario Saric

analyst
#56

And my last question -- and I may not get an answer to this. But it was mentioned that the goal was to get to net zero by 2035. Is there any way today to think about the cost of doing so in relation to the fair value of the building?

Gordon Wadley

executive
#57

Yes. Yes, that's a really good question. I think -- even before these initiatives were announced, I think we were quite prudent and looking at ways to make our buildings more attractive to tenants. And a lot of these initiatives increase decarbonization. And we look at these types of program similar to how we would look at any traditional capital program, which we expect to get good financial returns in addition to making our buildings more green. So on one hand, we've already got the [ lease ] certifications, [indiscernible] certification across a lot of the portfolios because we've been doing it for the last 5 years. The CIB program was important because, first of all, it's a great source of debt in order to fund it. It's a 25-year unsecured program. And it's aligned in a way that the more GHG we reduce in the building, the lower the interest rate will be. So it's a very attractive source of capital in making our buildings better. And on the return side, I think the tenants are really supportive in a lot of these initiatives. We'll be able to amortize a lot of the common areas because -- I mean, it's important to the tenant. They have their own ESG and will make sure we're in that slot. So I think over the next a little while, we're looking at tackling every single project like how we would look at doing an expansion or a redevelopment. But we think with the capital facility as well as it being aligned with the tenants, we'll have a pretty attractive program that then will deliver big IRRs.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#58

Yes. I think it was Scott that mentioned a little bit about closing the gap from commitments to occupancy. And what we're seeing with this GHG program and what we're doing in the building is that it's helping us with our absorption. And we're winning business as a result of having this program, showcasing this program. And the feedback that we've been getting from the government tenants and also, too, from very sophisticated private sector tenants that have ESG verticals from another business is that it's a deciding factor in a lot of what we're doing. We're also seeing, albeit it's at some -- it's a little bit high level right now, but we're also seeing people not only are going to commit earlier, but they're willing to pay more on the apartment. And they like the reporting that we're doing. They like the awards that we're winning. And the way that we showcase to them is they're a partner in the building, everybody benefits from the shared success that we have through this program. And to be candid with you, it's helping us win some great key business.

Operator

operator
#59

We have our next question from Pammi Bir with RBC Capital Markets.

Pammi Bir

analyst
#60

Just coming back to 2200 Edmonton, I just wanted to maybe [indiscernible] you can hold on company [indiscernible] right before year end. And then you mentioned the discussion around bringing in some partners. But I'm curious. Are talks currently in progress on that? And any color you can share there would be helpful.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#61

Sure.

Gordon Wadley

executive
#62

I'll let Michael talk about the progress of the -- on capital partners. You broke up on the first part. But I think you were asking about the status of the rezoning. We're hopeful or optimistic we able to get clarity on that before the year-end. We're just working through some final milestones with regards to Section 37 and some of the community benefits. [indiscernible], but we just need clarity on that. And things happened a bit slow over the summer, but we're quite optimistic we'll be able to get rezoning and really get value out of the site. Michael, do you want to cover the partnership aspect?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#63

Okay. Well, on the rezoning, we expect that by the end of the year, we'll be in good shape on the rezoning. We still have the site plan to go. With the site plan, we haven't gone far enough on the pricing and pro forma, but -- so we've had some very brief conversations. But we don't have numbers to show anybody yet until we're finished with the zoning. So this might be something for next year.

Pammi Bir

analyst
#64

Okay. And sorry, Michael, just on your comment on the site plan. If the zoning is successful and you see it by year-end, presumably you would then mark the value on that process? Or do you have to wait for the site plan approval?

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#65

That's a Jay question. I think that the value would be pretty reasonable at that time. But Jay, when do you mark them up?

Jay Jiang

executive
#66

I think if you got rezoning, you did certainly hit one of the milestones. And what I would do is I would front that question to the appraiser. And the same way, it goes through all the analysis. [indiscernible], so they would probably look at the similar sites and the progress with the other landlords and derive a value. But the first mark that we did, we were pretty far off in financing with one of the key milestones because we got offered a piece of debt that was higher than the book value. So that was probably a good indication it was worth more. We did take one to get rezoning and achieved another significant milestone. So it's likely worth more. And gradually, the level over time to be a completed site. And then, well -- I don't if Michael said before, we'll take pro forma on an EPS basis to see what will be the economic value from previous value to today. So over time, we expect that to gradually pick up over the next year or so.

Pammi Bir

analyst
#67

Okay. Just on the 2023 debt maturities. It's fairly large, and I believe a chunk of it relates to one property. But just any thoughts on plans for the new financing of that? Maybe any possible consideration of a hedge? I'm just curious how you're thinking about next year's [indiscernible]?

Jay Jiang

executive
#68

Yes, you're right. Next year, the biggest asset is actually our head office we're sitting in at right now. We're already starting some conversations with the lenders. There's good appetite because the zoning -- the lease is well located and also they like the sponsorship. So we're quite confident we'll be able to get pretty good terms on this asset. With regards to your question on whether [indiscernible]. We've had the primary date as January 1 because -- I mean, we were looking at swapping potentially a portion of our [indiscernible] at that point in time when the rates were in the mid-2s. And interest only on not all those [indiscernible]. You talk to multiples. We're saying that [indiscernible] was probably 4.5 and they were baking in 6 to 7 rates. And then when [indiscernible], we call them [indiscernible] and nothing is retained. So we thought it was quite interesting. We needed the refinancing with the disclosures for our building in Mississauga. And while variable debt was probably [indiscernible] all in the high 4%. It dropped to 5%. We're not speculators of interest rates. I think overall, we're quite encouraged that we were able to get finance on the properties and the [indiscernible] good value in the asset than what we did. And we had a partner for that building is to do a half swap on it. But we said 65 out of the 130. And what you end up with is a blended rate about 4.9%. For the building next year, I think typically my preference is to go big. The curve has [indiscernible]. So I think it will be interesting to see what like the 10-year rate would be. Obviously, a lot can change. So a lot has changed in 2022. Every single month, we'll get a data point. So by the time we have these conversations next year, I would say things might be different. But we'll be prepared to make that decision on the mortgage then.

Pammi Bir

analyst
#69

Okay. And just to clarify. I think the expiry rate is like a 4%?

Jay Jiang

executive
#70

For this building, I don't have it off hand. But it sounds about right because it's there in the high 3s or 4.

Pammi Bir

analyst
#71

Okay. And then just lastly, Jay. I just want to clarify. Maybe it was just not entirely clear in mind in terms of when it came through. But did you say $1.50, that's 1-5-0, for your FFO guidance this year? And then if you can also just expand on [indiscernible] NOI growth?

Jay Jiang

executive
#72

Okay. Yes. Yes, it is $1.50. That's the [indiscernible]. I think for the year, we'll probably see slightly negative single digits. And as you said before [indiscernible] to next year. So we're served quite well from both our NOI and [indiscernible]. And hope that the occupancy is full in 2023.

Operator

operator
#73

We have our next question from Jenny Ma.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#74

Just had a couple more questions with regards to that $1.50 guidance you gave, Jay. You mentioned that you're factoring some higher rates. I presume that's on the floating. Did that factor any expected future increases or just what we're seeing to-date?

Jay Jiang

executive
#75

I would say it's mostly today, though, we try to [indiscernible]. But it's really hard to kind of speculate what will be announced at the next round of meetings. So I think all in, we assumed the blended rate on the facility is mid- to high 4, which is what we're seeing today. And it also factors in the refinancing of the one property that we talked about earlier with Pammi.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#76

Okay. So if I hear you correctly, to the extent there is more bumps in the rate, then there could be additional pressure on cash flow?

Jay Jiang

executive
#77

It depends on when the bump starts. But that's not correct -- if interest rates go up -- or if expense goes up, then you might [indiscernible]. Yes.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#78

Okay. Are you factoring any more share buyback in the guidance?

Jay Jiang

executive
#79

No, our base case for that do not include any major capital allocation decisions, disposition with that.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#80

Okay. Great. So it looks like -- you mentioned earlier that you're looking at using liquidity to continue to buy back units. And I'm just wondering given where the floating rate is at and potentially moving to -- when we think about that, would it be fair to look at the yield on the units sort of as a proxy on the cost of the equity and then comparing the 2 numbers and thinking about how you would allocate capital?

Jay Jiang

executive
#81

That's one metric that we look at. We also really look at the value of the -- the intrinsic value of the real estate. And on the liquidity, we would certainly factor in the cost of debt both in terms of the impact to FFO in addition to debt to EBITDA, and that's the gross book value. So we're cognizant of all those factors. Ultimately, we think the business and the portfolio is incredibly valuable. I think it's been a tough run for being a commercial office landlord, but I think we're seeing a lot of positive indicators as well. And what we're seeing is probably pretty good to stabilize cash flows and value over the next -- not to mention that, replacement cost is running even higher, and we're sitting in a building today that's on an implied basis trading in the stock market at around $450. And the one we've built across the street, where we're looking at right now, is probably for $1,500. So we look at our data. We look at [indiscernible]. We look at employment numbers. We feel pretty good about office buildings, well located ones that don't require a lot of capital or are well maintained. And we want to own more.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#82

Great. That's helpful. I guess my next question is when you look at the floating rate debt component that's pushing 30%, so -- I know you mentioned the word speculating on interest rates. But would you be comfortable having that increase a little bit higher to fund unit buybacks? Or is there some sort of unofficial feeling on that number where your comfort level goes down?

Jay Jiang

executive
#83

We don't really have a feeling per se, but we are very aware of not taking on too much variable interest rate. We run a lot of sensitivities as a risk management exercise within the company to -- [indiscernible]. We look at swapping it. We don't think economically it really makes sense because we would just be paying today's rate starting off in January. But what we really want to focus on is looking at what the impact of any future increases would have on just how we manage the company. So I think we have a lot of levers with holding on to a lot of industrial units, working on future dispositions and maybe some fixed debt. We'll see. But we have lots of plans to exercise the CIB program. The program is tough, as I said before. It really has 2 things. But we're definitely aware of our variable -- full exposure.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#84

Okay. Great. And then one more housekeeping question on the Saskatchewan potential disposition. Is there any debt on that asset?

Jay Jiang

executive
#85

Yes. Actually on -- that building has been a challenge for us. So the debt is actually just a bit more than the asset itself [indiscernible] will be transacted at IFRS. So the proceeds of all that will be used to delever the balance sheet, yes.

Jenny Ma

analyst
#86

Okay. Do you have the rate handy on that?

Jay Jiang

executive
#87

The rate on the [indiscernible]?

Jenny Ma

analyst
#88

Yes.

Jay Jiang

executive
#89

I think it's probably in the mid high 3.

Operator

operator
#90

We have our next question from Scott Fromson with CIBC.

Scott Fromson

analyst
#91

I had a follow-up on refinancing, but it was covered in the discussion with Pammi. So I'll withdraw.

Operator

operator
#92

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Michael Cooper for closing remarks.

Michael J. Cooper

executive
#93

Thank you very much. Appreciate everyone's interest. Lots of questions. We'll try to continue to provide you with good information to understand the company. What I would say is -- argue the assets are very valuable. I don't believe that the yield on the distribution is a good metric to look at the value of the buildings. As far as floating rate debt, if we want to have less floating rate debt, we would fix it. So I don't think that's a capital allocation decision. So I think that we'll manage the debt in a way that we're comfortable with. I think Jay's point is that right now when you fix the debt, you end up locking in a pretty high interest rate. And I don't think we feel it helps much. But we're watching to pick our opportunities. Interest rates are moving around a lot even as of today. But we're quite bullish about the business in the long term, and we just need people to go back to work. But I do thank you all for your interest in the company and look forward to proving out the results. Thank you very much.

Operator

operator
#94

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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