Dream Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (DRRUN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Dream Residential REIT's third quarter conference call for Thursday, November 3, 2022. During this call, management of Dream Residential REIT may make statements containing forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream Residential REIT's control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in Dream Residential REIT's filings with securities regulators, including its MD&A. These filings are also available on Dream Residential REIT's website at www.dreamresidentialreit.ca. Later in the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your host for today will be Ms. Jane Gavan, CEO of Dream Residential REIT. Ms. Gavan, please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everybody. Welcome to the third quarter 2022 conference call for Dream Residential REIT. With me today are Scott Schoeman, Chief Operating Officer; and Derrick Lau, Chief Financial Officer. I'm going to keep my comments brief since really the focus this quarter is on our operating performance, the markets and how those are reflected in our financial results. I note, however, that in these very uncertain times, the resilience of the U.S. multi-residential asset class, especially in our markets, has never been more appreciated by owners. Its disconnected stock market has never been so wide. I'm not sure in my career I've seen a bigger gap between private and public market valuations. The current unit price implies an 8.5% cap rate, which we haven't seen replicated in the property markets. I also note that despite the turbulence in global economies, interest rate disruption and stock market declines, DRR has delivered on the forecast in the IPO for our first full quarter. Thematically, we continue to run our business well, taking care of our residents and allocating capital thoughtfully. We're managing our occupancy to capture mark-to-market upside, coupled with the returns we get on the money we invest in upgrading suites. With returns on this value-add program approaching the high 30% range, it makes sense to continue to do more of that. As compared to other acquisition opportunities, it's the highest returning risk-adjusted use of our money we're investing in the assets we know. Furthermore, higher interest rates continue to aggravate the supply-side shortfall of reasonably priced rental accommodation while simultaneously putting home ownership out of reach for more modest income earners. So we believe our portfolio is exceptionally well positioned in this uncertain time. I'm going to turn it over to Scott to give you more color. Scott?

Thank you, Jane. With our first full quarter now complete, we remain confident in the U.S. multi-residential sector and specifically Dream Residential's markets and assets. The portfolio is performing in line with expectations year-to-date, and we are well positioned to achieve our forecast through the remainder of the year and to the end of our initial forecast period June 30, 2023. Q3 NOI was in line with forecast at $5.5 million. Leasing activity and rent rate both held strong, and the value-add program proved effective in driving in-place rents, which we will touch upon later. As a result, property revenue was also largely in line at $11 million. Operating expenses of $5.5 million were consistent with our IPO forecast, leading to an NOI margin of approximately 50%, again corresponding with expectations. Lease trade-outs demonstrated continued momentum, outpacing both the first quarter and the IPO second quarter stub period with 13.6% blended lease-over-lease growth during Q3. This blended figure is comprised of 11 -- of 16.2% average increase on new leases, equivalent to $163 per unit more than the expiring lease and 11.1% higher on renewals. Bolstered by interior suite renovations, Dallas Fort-Worth led all regions with 19.6% new lease trade-outs during the third quarter, which, in turn, drove 11.1% rent growth in Dallas Fort-Worth from December 31, 2021. Cincinnati's rent growth was strong at only 1 percentage point less than Dallas Fort-Worth from December 2021, without any benefit of value-add initiatives. The Oklahoma assets led the portfolio with 11.8% growth on third quarter renewal leases, and rent growth of 10.8% over the 9 months from December 2021. Quarter-over-quarter, portfolio rents grew 4.1% higher in Q3. Dallas Fort-Worth and Oklahoma City led at 4.3% and 4.2%, respectively. Cincinnati finished at 3.9% higher than Q2, occurring organically without having yet begun any value add. As a result of this sustained strength, in-place rents grew over 10%, spanning the first 9 months of this year, rising to $1,060 per suite, up $101 from the end of 2021. Gains to lease spreads held at 7%. However, after only 8 months, 94% of the pre-IPO embedded gain to lease has now been recaptured. The narrowing of the gain to lease spread reflects our ability to grow in-place rents faster than asking rents. A part of our overall leasing strategy is to ensure we are capturing rent growth while maintaining level -- ideal levels of occupancy and with intentional consideration to renovations and seasonal leasing norms. The REIT's value-add program is a major value-creation component in our business plan. To that end, we invested $1.5 million towards the upgrade of interior suites during the third quarter. As communicated at the time of IPO and during Q2 reporting, management accelerated the value-add program to take advantage of the strong summer leasing season. After completing 24 suites in the second quarter, we rotated nearly 5x as many suites into construction during the third quarter, renovating 117 more apartments across 7 communities in 2 markets through the end of September. Since IPO, we have completed 141 suite renovations. With 45 more under construction at the end of the third quarter, Dream Residential expects to invest $1 million more during the fourth quarter and holds firm to our projection to value-add more than 200 suites by the end of 2022 and more than 300 suites by the end of the forecast period. Year-to-date, these renovations have commanded a $429 rent increase per suite, which equates to a 37% premium above the outgoing expired leases. With average costs coming in better than planned, our returns on invested capital are meeting or beating our IPO projected 12% to 16% ROIC target range. We expect to complete around 70 more renovations in Q4, sustaining returns within our target range. Value-add is proving out as intended, a worthy allocation of capital and one that our vertically integrated team remains poised to execute over the long run. As a result of the higher renovation intake during summer leasing, portfolio occupancy for the third quarter finished at 93.7%. The ramp-up of value-add suites in Dallas Fort-Worth and Oklahoma City was the primary driver of this occupancy level. Throughout the quarter, some 70 to 90 suites were typically either under construction or pending lease-up and move-in following the suite upgrades, thus purposely contributing 2% to 3% of total vacancy. In Cincinnati, where renovations have yet to begin, stabilized occupancy neared 97%. Even with value-add ongoing, current occupancy is now collectively trending higher as properties prepare for normalized fourth quarter seasonal operations. Looking forward, we see conditions moderating as one would expect in historical fourth quarter fashion. Our residents are sticky and renewals strong. Present conditions seem to reflect a combination of 2 reasonably anticipated scenarios: moderation of the unprecedented rent growth over the past 15 months; and the return of pre-pandemic seasonal leasing norms. Within that framework, we will continue to focus intensely upon operations, renovations and preparing our team and assets for the return of spring leasing season early next year. These priorities keep us on track with IPO forecast and ready for the macroeconomic bumps and uncertainty that may lay ahead. Externally, the transactional market has practically halted, and the price discovery stalemate between sellers and buyers seems to be holding things in check until interest rates and inflation stabilize to foster less uncertainty. We are looking with discretion and discipline for acquisition opportunities, but that time may yet be just over the horizon. The upcoming U.S. elections and the war in Ukraine are, of course, only adding to this global uncertainty. Housing unaffordability has gone from bad to worse. And while recently completed luxury supply is hitting across Sunbelt markets, new construction of all housing is largely slowed, even halted. Among other things, our portfolio is designed with a defensive nature for just such times as these, and we are well positioned to deal with potential economic uncertainty. We like the resilience of our portfolio, and we are confident that our ground team can respond to a changing economic environment. It's good to be in the middle of the middle. Now I'm pleased to turn things over to Derrick Lau, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. Financial results for Q3 2022 were consistent with management's expectations. Diluted funds from operations was $0.15 per unit and in line with our IPO forecast. Net operating income and NOI margin were $5.5 million and 50%, respectively, also consistent with our IPO forecast. G&A was $793,000 or slightly over forecast and largely attributed to higher travel expenses and nonrecurring personnel costs. IFRS NAV at September 30, 2022 is $14.58 per unit. The IFRS value of our properties was $414.5 million, representing a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter. The increase comprised of $3 million of building improvements and $1.2 million of fair value gains. In the current economic environment, liquidity and balance sheet flexibility are a priority. Net debt to net total assets remained at 29%. All debt is fixed with no maturities until 2025. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $85 million in liquidity comprising over $15 million of cash on hand and full availability of our credit facility. Over the near term, we intend to deploy capital towards our value-add program, where we anticipate spending approximately $1 million for the remainder of this year. In October, the REIT commenced trading on the OTCQX under ticker DRREF, which we believe will provide increased exposure and broaden access to U.S. investors. Thank you. I will now turn it back to Jane.

Thanks, Derrick. We're going to open the call now to questions.

[Operator Instructions] And we have a question from Sairam Srinivas from Cormark Securities.

Scott, just one question for you. Just going back to your comment on moderation in rent growth, are there some markets where you're seeing a greater moderation relative to others?

Thank you for your question. We are seeing moderation across all markets in line with what we would say is traditional seasonality. I would say we've seen exceptional rent growth in Dallas Fort-Worth, and we're seeing a moderation come down to more normal seasonal rent growth during the fourth -- exiting the third quarter into the fourth quarter. But I would not see an outlier amongst our markets other than the traditional alignment with seasonality.

Scott, just looking at this, the moderation in perspective, if you look at the drivers for moderation. Because historically, because driver of the rent growth has been the disconnect between sort of purchasing power of the buyer from buying a house versus renting, and concerning that has not changed materially. What's driving this moderation? Is it more recession driven?

I think what Scott's pointing out is that what we're seeing right now is typical for what you would see at this time of the year. Spring is a busy time. Rents pick up. At this time of the year, people move less. Rents tend to moderate. So the -- we're kind of returning to a more pre-pandemic cadence of rental growth. So I think that's what we have been seeing. I mean, listen, it's an evolving situation. But I think right now, what we're seeing is a return to pre-pandemic Q4, Q3 kind of softening, let's say, slowing of acceleration.

Just on that -- sorry. Go ahead.

I would just echo what Jane has said is that what we're seeing right now is precisely what we've seen over the past decade outside of the pandemic anomalies. And I think that this is returning to a normal multifamily cycle that has a high leasing season from, call it, March until August or September and a stabilized leasing time frame from, call it, September through February.

And just keeping that in mind, are you guys still comfortable on your 12-month forecast as [indiscernible] IPO?

Yes, Sai. I couldn't understand that question, sorry.

Scott, [indiscernible] whether keeping this moderation in mind, is that still in line with your forecast. And I think -- I guess Derrick and Jane clarify that it is, so that's good. So just looking at IFRS cap rates actually, I saw there was a big change in this quarter with a small expansion in Dallas and some compressions in Cincinnati. Could you guys just speak to that?

Sure. So as you recall, Sai, the last quarter, we did -- we used the external appraisals or we used it for our Q2 measures. In Q -- during this quarter, we did management's own internal analysis, went through each of the cap rates across the market and across the assets, and that would be a difference between now, this quarter and last quarter. They've increased by about -- I think it was 8 bps to 5.05 from 4.97. And it really reflects what we're seeing in the market based on the limited information that we're seeing in the market. But what we've got -- and as you know, the values were [ largely flat ] because NOI has gone up, whereas cap rates have -- sorry, NOI has gone offsetting the increase in cap rate.

The next question comes from Brad Sturges from Raymond James.

Just on the gain to lease there, 7% at the end of the quarter. How would that break down by the big 3 markets?

Thank you, Brad. In -- across the 3 markets, we saw a gain to lease in Dallas Fort-Worth of 4.3%, in Oklahoma City 12.6% and Cincinnati 2.3%.

Okay. And obviously, you're highlighting kind of more normal seasonal trends. You're expecting for rent growth going forward in demand. How have leasing spreads been trending in the fourth quarter to date?

I would say this is that we're seeing rent growth moderate, and we are positioning ourselves for the traditional seasonality into the fourth quarter and the first quarter. So we're seeing occupancy trends higher, and we're seeing rent growth moderate. And those gains to leases will be a reflection of that seasonality.

And there's nothing sticking out in terms of like the demand indicators like touring activity or lead generation that would suggest anything other than just kind of more normal seasonal trends?

Leasing activity is very, very consistent with our normal time frame right now. In fact, it remains consistent now pretty much as we've seen through the entire third quarter. I would just say the exception being that we are experiencing a moderation of rent growth in the traditional September through November time frame.

Last question, Jane, you highlighted the gap between public and private pricing. Obviously, there's the macro environment that's a big factor in this. But is there -- anything you can do to help close that gap, given the stocks trading at [ implied ] 8.5%, implied cap rate? Like would you consider NCIB or -- I know liquidity is a real challenge, but is there something you can do strategically to try and help close that gap?

Well, I mean I think management is focused on delivering the IPO forecast, doing what we said, showing the strength of the underlying assets quarter-over-quarter. I mean, we're still kind of young, so I think that's really been a focus. I think we've been really pleased with how well the value-add program is going. And frankly, investing in stuff we know very well and getting high 30% returns is pretty compelling. Shrinking our stock flows doesn't -- wouldn't appear to help us that much. Although I think it's something we keep on our dashboard looking at. But right now, I think investing in the properties we know makes a lot of sense for our capital.

Our next question comes from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Securities.

Just going back to the 7% gain to market, would it be fair to say that the market rent growth is slowing, but you guys are capturing some of that, so we could expect that 7% to kind of go down when you guys report Q4 numbers?

Well, I would say -- I mean I hope we're doing our job in capturing it. That's the opportunity for us is narrowing that gap. I mean, if you look where we were at IPO to now, I think we're really pleased that we've been able to turn over as much as we can and bring our assets to market. That's the opportunity in this portfolio and sort of strategically why we like the age of it and the acquisition strategy around it. Scott, do you want to add more color?

Jonathan, I would just add that we have driven in-place rents since IPO at a faster pace than market rent. And I think we're seeing both of those things now stabilize in a healthy position. We like about where we are right now, especially with the value-add program going.

Okay. That was what I was trying to get at that. And then just speaking of the value-add program, I guess, if we look to 2023, would you guys be looking at a similar pace to what you've done since the IPO?

Yes is the answer. We'll do about 200 to finish out this calendar year, and we'll double that next year. So I would expect to maintain that pace, and that pace will be moderated with seasonality just as we did in Q3, but yes.

And for the seasonality on that, is it -- so is it slower in the winter season, higher in the summer? Or is it in a slower leasing time you take the opportunity to do more?

As we optimize the high leasing season to push rents and to do -- and to accelerate renovations. And during this fourth quarter through about February or March, we see higher retention rates and more stability in line with the expiration of leases. So we'll follow that seasonality, and we'll prepare ourselves for that spring leasing season from both a rent growth perspective and a value-add perspective.

Okay. And then just lastly on the value-add program, you guys run around 50% turnover annually. So you have lots of suites to choose from. Just could you maybe go through how you pick suites or pick the properties, where you want to do it? What kind of goes into that?

Let's start with the property. So we'll do market surveys of the properties of the competitive set, what the amenities are, what the competitive property attributes might be. Once we select the property, then about 90 days out, we'll deep select suites that are best set up for our renovation program. Sometimes that's based upon the existing lease in place, sometimes it's based upon the floor plan and the demand we're seeing. But due to supply chain factors, we want to deep select and wrap those suites into our renovation program 60 to 90 days before those leases expire. That's our selection process. And obviously, with that kind of advanced drafting, we'll prepare for the seasonality well in advance of the spring leasing season heading.

Our next question comes from Matt Kornack from National Bank Financial.

I just wanted to understand a bit better, again, the rent growth comment with regards to the value-add. Presumably because you've been renovating more units, and I think you're sitting on a bit more vacancy, wouldn't that necessarily drive higher rent growth on those units that are going to be occupied, I guess, into Q4? Or does the rent -- I don't know if the rent that you've disclosed already incorporates some of that value-add activity at this point?

Matt, the value-add program has positively influenced rent growth, but it's really only about across 4% of the portfolio to speak of right now. We've done 141 suites of the 3,400, and that has positively influenced things in quarter 3. But really, what we were intending to do is draft those suites out, create that vacancy so that we can begin to accelerate that value-add program during the third quarter. We'll moderate that now during the fourth quarter and prepare to reaccelerate that starting in the spring.

Matt, we also haven't seen the -- now we also haven't seen the full impact of the value-add suite so consistent with our messaging previously, you will see that more in the back half of 2023.

Right. That makes sense. And then if I think of occupancy maybe on a bit more of a granular basis, Dallas, in particular, I guess, I think it's early on, it was 95 down to 90. How should we think of the lease up maybe in Q4 and into the first half of 2023. Do you expect to get kind of back into the mid-90s and then it comes back down as you renovate into the summer of next year? Just some clarity there. And then for Oklahoma, should we expect further, sort of, vacancy there? Or will you wait until kind of mid next year to ramp up again in that market in terms of the renovation activity?

Matt, 100% occupancy is trending back up portfolio-wide in the fourth quarter as a result of the moderation also of the value-add program. You noted the occupancy in Dallas in the third quarter, Dallas was our market where we drafted -- we intentionally drafted in the highest number of suites into the renovation program, and then that is moderating in the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter. So we'll see those occupancy trends trend up until we induce that again in the second quarter next year.

Okay, that makes sense. And then just on margins and costs. Obviously, there's inflation out there on a number of expense items. But I think longer term, the view is that you can maybe get a bit of a better margin out of this business than you have now. But how should we think of it maybe in the near term with regards to margin progression from kind of 50% to somewhere higher than that at some point in the future?

I think we'll see margins tick up during the next couple of quarters in line with current occupancy ticking up. And then when we -- as we ramp up into the high leasing season and high value-add, we need to say that vacancy increase a little bit again. But overall, I think you'll see our margins tick up.

So Matt, maybe a little more color. So if you look at our IPO forecast, I think our margin is around 51%. And as Scott mentioned, we've factored in inflation, wage increases as part of our forecast. But I think you'll see it was 50 this quarter, and it will trend up -- will tick up as we go into Q4 and into the year.

And I guess one follow-up question then with regards to the IPO forecast. Is the amount -- I mean, I know you said you've accelerated the amount of the suite renovations that you're doing, but did the IPO forecast -- what was being kind of modeled at that point in terms of suite renovation activity? Is this materially different?

No, it's not materially different, Matt. It's more the timing between the quarters as opposed to the overall quantity. So it's largely consistent. And -- so that's just suite being renovated during the forecast, Matt. So just to recall that our forecast really doesn't include the financial benefit or the impact as I was mentioning earlier, which is in the back half of 2023. So the value-add is incorporated by the number of units. The benefit will come online later in 2023.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Himanshu Gupta from Scotiabank.

So just a follow-up on the portfolio occupancy question. Clearly, portfolio occupancy was down in Q3 from Q2. Is this all because of value-add program, the units under renovation? Or are you starting to see some pressure on markets we can see as well in your markets?

Himanshu, 100% of the reduction in occupancy was due to our value-add draft. We intentionally drafted those suites into our program into construction and leased those up.

Okay. And I mean, as you further carry onto the value-add program, do you have a sense of -- do we see more pressure on occupancy from there? Or as units are [ generally ] renovated the lease up, that should be the offset. So basically, any color on the occupancy trends from there.

Occupancy is trending higher now into the fourth quarter as we moderate the number of units that we're drafting into the value-add program. So yes, we're seeing occupancy trends higher.

Okay. And then on the new supply, I guess, Dallas is seeing more new supply compared to some of the other markets. Is that impacting market vacancy at all so far? Or the absorption is still strong enough to absorb the new supply?

There is new supply coming into the Dallas Fort-Worth market. As a large market, we do not see that new supply impacting our submarkets in the DFW market.

Okay. So not much impact on the new supply. It's really the value-add program, which is basically making an impact on the occupancy. Okay, that's fair enough. And then, Derrick, maybe on, again the IPO forecast, obviously your occupancy has changed now. Just if I look at Q4 forecast, I mean, do you still maintain them? Or do you expect any variance from the Q4 IPO forecast point of view?

Himanshu, right now we are keeping towards our Q4 forecast as well as into 2023. So we're comfortable with it at this current point. So no changes to it.

Okay. So the value-add program or acceleration of value-add program is not making any difference to IPO forecast for now. And despite you are seeing some moderation in that growth. So -- okay, so that's fair enough.

Fair enough, yes, yes.

Okay. And then on the transaction market, I think, to you mentioned the transaction market has taken a pause or halted, so to speak. So how wide is the buyers and seller expectations now? Like what are buyers asking, what are sellers willing to sell at in your markets?

Well, that's -- that's a good question, Himanshu. I think -- I don't know if I can quantify that spread, but I can qualify it, that there is enough of a spread to where sellers are pulling things off the market, or they're not taking them to market. What we know right now is that the number of opinions of value being requested by potential sellers is high, but the number of properties hitting the market is far lower than it's historically been. So I think that stalemate is not necessarily a quantifiable stalemate, but it's reflected in the lower number -- the lower volume of assets that are hitting the market right now.

Okay. So let me ask you, what is the cost of debt financing now if I were to get new refinancing? And -- what are buyers asking as a spread to that financing, or markets like [ Dallas ] are still okay with negative leverage in terms of the rent [indiscernible] offset some of these negative leverage there?

I can start off with what we're seeing on the rates and then maybe you can talk about the spread. So right now, if we were to do a 10-year agency debt, Himanshu, that being in the high 5s, around 5.8% on agency debt, mind you, if we were to -- there is a mission-driven affordable programs, as well as sustainable linked initiative that could bring down by 10 to 15 bps. And if we were to draw on the credit facility that would be around the mid-class right now. So those are the rates that we're seeing.

Got it, got it. So mid 5s. And I assume that like the buyer [indiscernible] because they're still asking for a spread over and above this right here. And maybe the last question will be, are you still underwriting in any of your -- like which markets are you underwriting? And at the time of IPO, you were looking to some other markets as well. Are you actively looking out for opportunities there?

We are actively underwriting in all of our current markets, Himanshu, as well as the Carolinas and the Mountain West. So that's a daily process. We're tracking deals equally in all of those markets. Yes.

I think, Himanshu, we want to be ready if there are any distress in the market? Are there particularly good opportunities for us to speak to who we are as a value-add player? That spread and you talked about in your last question, it really depends on the buyer. Are they an all-cash buyer? Are they small family office who likes the cash on cash? It sort of depends.

We have no further questions currently. I will turn the call over to Ms. Gavin for closing remarks.

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today, and we really look forward to reporting our year-end results. We'll speak to you then. Thank you.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.