Dream Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (DRRUN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Dream Residential REIT Second Quarter Conference Call for Thursday, August 3, 2023. During this call, management of Dream Residential REIT may make statements containing forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream residential reach control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in Dream Residential REIT's filings with securities regulators, including its MD&A. These filings are also available on Dream Residential REIT website at www.dreamresidential reit.ca. Later in the presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your host for today will be Mr. Brian Pauls, Chief Executive Officer of Dream Residential REIT. Mr. Pauls, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Dream Residential REIT's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Speaking with me today are Scott Schoeman, our Chief Operating Officer; and Derrick Lau, our Chief Financial Officer. We are pleased with this quarter's results and report NOI for Q2 2023 of $6.1 million and FFO per unit of $0.18. Both are consistent with the previous IPO forecast. Following the second quarter, we have now concluded our inaugural year and 12-month IPO forecast. We have successfully delivered NOI that was consistent with our IPO forecast and FFO per unit of $0.66, which is $0.01 ahead of forecast. Our in-house ability to add value and drive growth continues to be a contributor to our financial performance. Broader Sunbelt markets are showing signs of moderation with new supply pressures. However, our rents have continued to grow across all markets and the new supply is largely geared toward luxury-style apartments compared to our focus on garden-style communities. We remain confident in our ability to drive rental rate growth, and our value-add initiatives continue to be a differentiator. We will continue to use our strong cash flow and balance sheet to invest in our properties to improve quality and facilitate rent growth. In addition, with nearly 30% of our portfolio rents from Cincinnati, we have exposure to one of the strongest rent growth areas in the United States. With the interest rate environment that appears that it will be higher for longer, our portfolio is well-positioned to remain strong during this time. Our balance sheet is safe with low leverage, combined with a lengthy and staggered debt maturity profile. We remain focused on maintaining balance sheet flexibility and investing capital prudently. I will now turn it over to Scott to provide an operations update for the quarter. Go ahead, Scott.

Thank you, Brian. Management is excited to report that we have completed our first full 4 quarter year of operations in line with the original IPO forecast that was finalized nearly 2 years ago in late 2021. Actual net operating income of $23.34 million exceeded the original forecast NOI of $23.31 million, leading to a 14% same-property NOI compound annual growth rate. While operating expenses rose 5% during the forecast period, revenue increased more than 9% on an annualized basis since the original forecast was released. This is an important milestone for management and for our shareholders. In early 2022, we publicly marketed down to the dollar with the forward-looking first-year post-IPO would look like. In 2023, we delivered on that forecast. Over the past 18 months of economic conditions, I think our unitholders will find this achievement reaffirming, looking back, and encouraging looking forward. The second quarter stand-alone ended in line with forecast net operating income of $6.1 million, improving 1% higher than Q1, while sustaining a 51% operating margin. Revenue of $11.96 million reflected a continual healthy growth rate, closing 1.8% above forecast and 2.7% higher than the first quarter. Total rental income sustained better-than-expected growth, driven by 8.8% renewal trade-outs and 21% value-add premiums. Year-to-date, revenue of $23.6 million and NOI of $12.2 million, positioned DRR to finish in the upper tera forecast range for calendar year 2023. DRR portfolio occupancy was 94.1% on June 30 with approximately 43 apartments underway on renovations. Even with nearly 2% of available apartments intentionally drafted into our high-return renovation program, the DRR vacancy rate remained 130 basis points stronger than the 7.2% national vacancy rate reported by a partenist at the end of Q2. Apartment List also described national year-to-date rent growth as positive 2.4% and year-over-year rent growth is flat. By comparison, Dream Residential grew rents 3.9% over the first 6 months and held double digits at positive 10.2% year-over-year rent growth. Spring season lease trade-outs elevated each month of the quarter, 8.4% blended trade-outs in June pulled the quarter average of blended trade-outs up to 7.2% overall. The Midwest is in the news for some of the nation's leading rent growth. Our Cincinnati portfolio reflects that with region-leading 10.1% blended trade-offs for the quarter, 10.1% year-over-year rent growth, and 3.1% higher rent than Q1, only 3 months earlier. Our Dallas-Fort Worth portfolio maintained its resilience with 4.9% blended trade-outs and 1.7% rent growth over the quarter. DFW is holding well in the aggregate with positive 9.5% year-over-year rent growth across our communities and July rents are pushing upward. DRR's Oklahoma assets set the main with 7.2% blended trade-outs, 2.9% quarterly rent growth, and portfolio-leading 10.9% annual rent growth. Portfolio-wide in-place rent increased $104 or 10.2% from Q2 2022, up to $1,122 per suite, sustaining 2.5% quarter-over-quarter rent growth to start the strong leasing season. During the second quarter, DRR's internal property management team introduced across the platform, new lease and revenue management software that integrates artificial intelligence into our on-site leasing operations. The AI-based application provides more advanced optimization and forecasting tools as well as improved value-add integrations directly to the fingertips of our community directors and regional leaders. We have already observed fluid adaptations to dynamic market conditions and increased asking rents, which better reflect our value-add rental growth premiums. Shareholders understand that one of GRR's execution strengths and value drivers is the vertically integrated renovation and construction capability. Year-to-date, our internal value-add teams have upgraded 203 apartments from classic condition into modern finished suites. Over the first 6 months of 2023, average renovation trade-out premiums exceeded $230, 21% higher than expiring leases. In our Sunbelt markets, upgrade return margins lifted above our 12% to 16% window into the high teens, even as organic growth normalized, making an even more compelling case to incrementally reposition our communities. Our experience affirms that renovations create better living experiences, improved property conditions, and resident demographics, increased net income, and boost asset value. We project to start over 100 new suite renovations during Q3 and target an estimated 400 by year-end. DRR will continue to focus on operational excellence and value creation. -- Multifamily across the United States is showing signs of stabilization. The supply pipeline is strong and yet net absorption rebound is positive in each of the past 2 quarters. Vacancy and rent growth appear to be steady in near long-term norms. At the same time, new permits and construction starts have been declining, and for-sale housing on affordability set new highs once again. With historic levels of new supply absorbing now and economic conditions pointing more households towards for-lease solutions, apartment homes and communities like ours and markets like ours remain resilient in the near term and positioned to outperform over the long run. The transaction market persists as a standoff between buyers and sellers. Multifamily accounted for the largest share of commercial real estate transactions, but its volume is estimated 65% lower than Q2 last year and about 30% below the quarterly average from 2013 to 2019. We continue to actively evaluate opportunities in both our existing and our target growth markets. Management is excited to have achieved our IPO forecast and is pleased with the accomplishments and performance over the first half of the year. We project 2023 to finish in the upper tier of our initial guidance range from upper $23 million to mid-$24 million of net operating income. In addition, the state of Texas recently passed property tax revisions that are expected to positively benefit the DRR portfolio this calendar year. DRR projects annual net operating income in the form of reduced 2023 property taxes amounting to between $100,000 and $200,000 more. The legislative provisions are expected to be passed by public vote approval in November. And once the final 2023 millage rates are set during Q4, final adjustments will be added to NOI at the end of the year. Management's year-end forecast does not yet include this favorable upward addition to net operating income that is now likely to be booked during Q4. DOR continues to focus on operations, value creation, and delivering strong results for unitholders. Our first full year is a testament to that business plan. It is now a pleasure to introduce Derrick Lau, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. Financial results for the second quarter of 2023 were consistent with expectations. Diluted funds from operations was $0.18 per unit and consistent with our IPO forecast. For the quarter ended June 30, 2023, net operating income was $6.1 million, which was in line with the IPO forecast. NOI margin was 51.1% compared to the IPO forecast of 52.2%. Operating revenue of $12 million was approximately $200,000 higher than forecast. Operating expenses, excluding the impact of IFRIC 21 were $5.8 million compared to the IPO forecast of $5.6 million. G&A expenses was $861,000 compared to $832,000 in the IPO forecast. This was largely due to higher travel and personnel costs. Interest and other income of $79,000 was driven by higher interest rates on cash balances. IFRS NAV at June 30, 2023, is $14.85 per unit compared to $14.73 in the prior quarter. The RFS value of our properties is $425 million or a 1% increase from the prior quarter and reflects $3.8 million of building improvements, partially offset by $1.4 million of fair value losses. Our IFRS cap rate increased by 5 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 5.27%. Net debt to net total assets was approximately 31% at June 30, 2023. All of our debt remains fixed rate with a weighted average term of 5.7 years and at a weighted average contracted interest rate of 4%. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $78.4 million of liquidity, comprising $8.4 million of cash on hand and full availability of our credit facility. To date, we have purchased and canceled approximately 151,000 units or roughly 15.5% of the total allowable under our NCIB at an average price of $8.12. As Scott has noted, we are targeting the upper end of our NOI guidance. With that, we are expecting 2023 FFO per unit to be at the higher end of our previously provided guidance or in the $0.70 range, excluding acquisitions and our current total unit count. I will now turn it back to Brian.

Thank you, Derrick. I'm honored to join the DRR management team as CEO and look forward to opportunities ahead as we continue to manage the company to safely navigate the current economic environment and look to capitalize on opportunities in the future. We'd now like to open the call to questions.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question is from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Cowen.

First question, just on the mark-to-market, a little surprised to see your estimated mark-to-market increase as much as it did in the quarter. Was that consistent across your markets? Or did say Cincinnati stand out there as well?

Good morning, Jonathan. The mark-to-market increased in Dallas-Fort Worth and Oklahoma City as our operating hubs there. As I mentioned, we have integrated new lease and revenue management software that better integrates our value-add planning. And so part of that mark-to-market change, as you can see or we've discussed is that in DFW and Oklahoma City where the predominant amount of our value add is occurring, the mark-to-market increased most notably there.

Okay. So it's generally your value-add program that's driving that increase?

That's correct. And we've upgraded our software enhancement that allows our people on-site to better accommodate the value-add rent premiums, whereas previously it was being manually done. Now we have a better forecasting tubal that allows us to integrate that more real-time.

And then just switching gears onto the acquisition side, still waiting for your first one. But I guess we're starting to see a pickup in trading volumes. Is it getting close to where you guys can start to make the math work on any acquisitions that you're looking at?

I would say it's pretty dynamic. In some weeks or months, the math gets closer and some it doesn't. The trading volume in Q2 was still down over 60%. I think near 65% compared to last year, and it's still down notably compared to the historic averages in the decade preceding the pandemic. So there are still, in comparison, very, very few properties trading hands. I think it increased 2% or 3% compared to previous Q1, but it is still fairly low. We're watching in all of our markets, including potential growth markets, but we aren't seeing anything that is compelling to act right now.

The next question is from Bradley Sturges from Raymond James.

Just on the -- I guess, the leasing spreads you're getting in Cincinnati, obviously, it was quite good in the quarter. Does that accelerate your plans for expanding the renovation program into that market? Or is it still, I guess, tracking for next year, I guess, in terms of when you would likely implement renovation in Cincinnati?

Brad, we are evaluating several markets to introduce the value-add program into Cincinnati being one of them. We'll make that decision probably in Q4 or maybe even the first part of Q1 based upon market conditions. As you noted, the organic rent growth in Cincinnati has been exceptional. It's, in some cases, mirrored or even beat out some of the Sunbelt in the near term. We like that consistent growth. We've seen it for years and years now. And so we are evaluating as a value-add opportunity. But we want to continue to have a responsible and disciplined balance of our allocation of capital in the REIT.

Okay. Just to go back to the acquisition discussion there. I think last call, you referenced targeting stabilized cap rates, I think, 6.5% or higher. Is that still the case of where you're targeting today? Or given whether we moved on the rate side of things, is that -- are you targeting a higher level of stabilized yield?

I don't think our target range has changed. I think we're still targeting the upper 6s at a stabilized cap rate.

And where would cost the debt be today if you were to go into the market?

Brad, it's interesting, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen spreads come down and then subsequently back up. I would say that availability is fully there. And if we were to look at rates today, probably 150 bps over the 10 years and similar 150 bps over the 7 years. So let's call it a mid-5 to 5.6 debt rate.

The next question is from Himanshu Gupta from Scotiabank.

So just on the Cincinnati market. I mean, it sounds like this is one of the strongest markets for you right now. What is causing that to be? Like why are you seeing stronger end growth and better occupancy levels in this market, right?

I think one of the attributes across the United States right now is the supply pipeline, new supply hitting across the Sunbelt, that same new supply is not hitting in Cincinnati in the same way. There is good supply there. There is healthy supply, but it's not surging, if you will. And I think that's one of the attributes there the healthy fundamentals that we look for in all of our markets, pro-business, favorable regulatory environment, net population migration, and household growth. Those attributes are in the Cincinnati market, the Oklahoma market, and of course, in our Dallas market, but we're not seeing an oversupply or a surging supply in that region.

Okay. And as we look into the next year, I mean, obviously, it will see some tough comps here. Would you see -- I mean, are we likely to see some moderation in this market next year, although you're not seeing much new supply.

And Himesh, were you referring to the Cincinnati market?

That's right, yes. So the rent growth has been strong this year, occupancy also. So are you going to see some moderation in the outlook for the next year for Cincinnati?

I think it is safe to say that we will not plan on double-digit rent growth sustained for the year ahead. I think we're going to continue to see strong occupancy there. We're going to continue to see strong rent growth. I don't believe that it will be double-digit rent growth.

Okay, fair enough. And just switching gears on the acquisition or potential acquisitions there. With this Propera division in Texas, would you say like Dallas and Houston and a few others will -- like the Texas markets will look more attractive today than what they were before the tax ruling?

I think that certainly enhances NOI on Texas properties. That's for any Texas single-family homeowner or multi-residential homeowner, it's a benefit. We're excited about it. We believe that the property taxes in Texas have been going up at too significant of a rate. It's been a detractor. And so we're very excited about that, what I would call a healthy rebalancing of the property taxes. Fair enough.

And just last question. The Protex revision in Texas, just to confirm, the potential benefit is not in your guidance, right, in 2023 guidance?

That's correct. It's not in our NOI guidance nor our FFO guidance.

[Operator Instructions] And the next question is from Matt Kornack from National Bank Financial.

Just quickly, with regards to DFW in Oklahoma City, you're doing more renovations there, but the spread that you're getting on new leasing, I guess, was a little bit lower than Cincinnati. But in the disclosure, you say that you're getting kind of 22% lifts on some of these renovated units. Is that just not reflected yet? And I understand your comment to Jonathan about the mark-to-market increasing. Is it just a lag effect in terms of those leases being signed versus taking possession?

Yes, there is a lag in terms of the impact on the lease trade-outs. But I would generally say this is the Sunbelt organic growth has moderated. Our value-add premiums have strengthened. So we're value adding -- we value added this year about 200 leases. We've had probably, we've had significantly more new leases turn over than that. So it's a proportional blend of new leases that are organic and a smaller portion of new leases that are value-add trade out. When you blend that, you get to that roughly mid-5% to lease trade out. And that's largely driven by the moderation in the Sunbelt on organic growth.

And I guess we've seen your larger peers with exposure to some of those markets, I say that kind of new leasing spreads are in the low single digits, they're still positive, but I'd say very low single digits. Is that consistent with what you're seeing? Or are you doing a bit better even without renovating some of these suites?

I would say, overall, we're doing a bit better than where the average. I think apartment list showed the nation at flat year-over-year, I think it showed Dallas pretty close to that. And so we're exceeding what the benchmarks are usually listed at even organically.

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the ancillary and other revenue line items, I think this quarter, they were a bit higher. Should we be taking those down? Or is $1.4 million or so a good run rate, I think to get to your guidance, you'd probably have to take it down a bit, but...

I think that's fair. I think you could take the average over the course of the year, that would whether be a better run rate of ancillary income.

[Operator Instructions] And the next question is from [ Lillian Smith ] from [ Lillian Financials. ]

I'm just looking to a lot of news reports on Dream lately. Of course, this is the U.S. market, but just wondering if there is any concern over possibility of something similar over there a rent strike or something like that? And what might be some of the mitigation?

[ Lillian, ] it's Brian. It's good to speak with you this morning. It's not likely to happen in these markets, in these products. We have not seen that in the United States. I think that's related to office that you're referring to and no, I mean, Scott, you can comment on that. We don't have rent controls in any of the markets that we're in. And it's -- I think the strike is related to that in Canada. Nothing to do with the U.S. markets that we're in and the structure of the government there is very different. So we're not likely to see that there. Does that answer your question, [ Lillian? ]

A little bit. I do think, yes, it's -- I think from what I've read, it's a rent control concern, right? But I have also seen U.S. article where people are calling for stuff that are similar just because of the -- how high the rent increases are going, I suppose. So even I think without the rent control thing and a different government, I feel like there might still be some concern over if people are getting too angry.

[ Lillian, ] this is Scott. Thank you for your question. So our portfolio really caters to what we would call the median income, and it's a very wide swap. There are about 40 million to 50 million renters in the United States, and the vast majority of them about 80% of them are centered in our economic bracket, where we're providing housing to residents. Our houses are naturally affordable. We don't have rent control in any of our markets, and we don't have rent control in any of our submarkets. In some cases, some of the state governments where we operate actually have legislation that makes it very difficult for rent control to pass at the state level. So this is how we evaluate markets, and that's an attribute of all of our markets right now is a lower, more favorable regulatory environment.

And certainly, Lilly, just expand on that, our properties are quite affordable, particularly compared to rents in Toronto where you're seeing the strikes you're referencing. So I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison.

Have there been any discussion at all like on the off-chance that it did happen? What are some of the strategies to keep going?

Strategies to keep going if rent control are to enter our markets.

I would say that. And also like what if everyone got set up and did a run strike even without a favorable regulatory environment.

I think one thing that is important is that there's about 50 cities in the United States that have 1.5 million people or greater. We're operating in 3 of them. We're operating in 3 that are pro-business have population migration have a very pro-growth mindset. And so our residents are excited to live where they live. There's competition, but it's a healthy competition. And the things that might be in the newspaper are just not a factor in our operational hubs.

The next question is from Dean Wilkinson from CIBC.

Just on a bigger-picture question, Brian. I mean, you've built a whole ton of multifamily down in the states. Obviously, the supply that's coming into the Sunbelt is because levered development yields still work. What has to happen for that to kind of come off the rails? Is it just massive cost inflation on the build side? Or do you think it's just rents continuing to drive down? And where do you see that kind of penciling out and sort of falling to?

Yes. Sure, Dean. What we see is there's been a lot of inflation, certainly, labor cost, material cost, land cost, debt costs, in particular, have gone up a lot. So we see projects that are in process right now completing, but we do see a pretty significant drop off in future supply. Supply has come in the markets. You mentioned in the markets that Scott mentioned in his earlier remarks, but we see that moderating as we go forward. We see maybe even pockets of opportunity where merchant builders are on construction loans or floating rate loans, closed-end funds that are maybe higher levered that we may see some opportunities for acquisitions, but we see it moderating significantly because of all those inflationary pressures. Dean, there's certainly negative leverage in today's environment when you look at low cap rates that you build to versus financing rates. And so we see that being a downward pressure on new supply over the longer term. So there is supply coming, but we see that short-lived as the pipeline behind it is slow.

Right. And so then, I guess, the natural extension of that is that the downward pressure for lack of a better term that we're seeing on rental rates probably subsides. And if we look out 18 months, 2 years, whatever the number may be, you start to see a bit more of a positive trajectory, but perhaps on what we were seeing 2, 3 years ago?

I think that's right. We do see it moderating. We do see the cost of home ownership increasing for all the same reasons. There are big inflationary pressures there. Mortgages cost more on homes that cost more. So it becomes less affordable to buy homes. Therefore, there'll be more renters and we see a lot of health and long runway in our asset class.

The next question is from Sairam Srinivas from Cormark Securities.

Just going back to Dean's question on construction, if you were to kind of map out broader construction cost today in your markets for new builds, how would that pan out on a per square feet basis?

Yes. Replacement costs have certainly gone up a lot, Sairam. We're seeing there's a widening gap in terms of certainly our cost base is to replacement cost. And so a follow-up to Dean's question and the previous discussion we were just having, we see that putting a bigger barrier to entry of new supply. It depends on the per square foot or the per unit or replacement cost varies pretty significantly mark-to-market, even neighborhood depending on land cost. But right now, what we're seeing are development yields don't necessarily justify new construction to start it today, and that's primarily driven by financing costs, but land prices have been stubbornly high. Lands in the markets we're in, it's held by very stable owners. There's certainly no distress there, so we don't see a significant pullback in land prices. So what we're seeing is a significant kind of long-term pullback of supply.

There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Pauls.

We'd like to thank everyone for participating in today's call. We look forward to speaking again soon. In the meantime, stay safe. Take care.

The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.