Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 9, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ato Arku
executiveGood afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ecobank's earnings call for the 9 months ended September. My name is Ato Arku, Head of Investor Relations. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] This afternoon, I'm joined by our Group CEO, Ade Ayeyemi; Chief Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju; and Chief Risk Officer, Chinedu Ikwudinma. Please note that some of the statements we are making today are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. For more information on the forward-looking statements, please refer to the disclaimer at the back of the slide deck. We will now go live with the presentation. Please stand by. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Ade. Please go ahead.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveThank you, Ato, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll briefly touch on the operating landscape and our audited results for the 9 months that ended in September 2022. Then I'll hand over the call over to Ayo and Chinedu to talk you through our financials and asset metrics in more detail. The operating landscape in which we continue to serve our customers has been challenging, the [ tail ] of COVID is still with us, reflected by supply [indiscernible] significantly fall by China's zero-COVID policy. Now we're saying the questions of goods not coming through and therefore creating supply-side inflation. We've also seen [indiscernible] chips being scarce as well creating further supply shock, supply side inflation. Equally, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continues to create energy in security. And here, I'm referring to all to energy in all its forms, whether it is food, whether it is [ fuel ], whether it is the power in form of gas. All of these are driving the supply-side shocks being experienced globally and contributing to high inflationary environments. The central banks had the mandate to respond whenever there is inflation, irrespective of how it is caused, especially with the overhang of low interest rates and excess liquidity that we've experienced in the last few decades. The actions of the central banks, especially the Fed, in moving the interest rate up is now responsible [indiscernible] to reverse our [indiscernible] for the emerging market particularly in our countries. At this point, it's important to also say a few words about one of our important countries, Ghana, which I'm sure is very much on the mind of all of us. To put things in perspective, we must understand that Ghana is a small but open economy in global context. And therefore, exogenous shocks can easily overshoot as we have seen with its currency and inflation rates. Through the fundamentals that we had about a year ago that supports the economy as evident by its production of cocoa, production of gold, oil and gas as well as power have not deteriorated in the past one year. Now we don't have political context in which the government is not settled. We don't have street fights but we find ourselves in a place where the consequences of macro imbalance is now creating the country's finances. As a player in the country, we continue to engage with government as it makes policy choices to address the present best sustainability challenges. The government in their proposals have spoken to the need for increased revenue, expense reduction and moderation of the cost of debt services that are up with incentives over time. Before I spread the intent to execute this plan without damaging the domestic economy and the financial sector, both of which are critical to the recovery. The discussion with IMF, which is that the core of the overall package is ongoing. And what we hear about the conversation is [ on ] quality. The impact of all of this on us is mainly viewed as we get more information from government on their proposals. We are also encouraged by the understanding of the importance of the financial sector and the culture of respect of the rule of law that has been established in Ghana. We are aware that the short-term impact of all of this will be a reduction in revenue streams in the banking industry as well as reduction of dividend flows from banking sector in Ghana, including to ourselves as ETI. This, however, is where we again we will again experience the benefit of diversity, as you receive from Ayo's presentation that there are positive dividend flows for other regions and countries. Moving on to our performance. Amid the macroeconomic headwinds, the [indiscernible] diversified business model, strong brand and passion for supporting our customers continue to deliver benefits. Our 9 months results reflected it -- as the results, Ecobank Group generated USD 401 million before -- profit before tax, an increase of 14% from a year ago and 48% in constant currency if you exclude the negative impact of foreign currency translation, which has been massive this year. Profit attributable to shareholders of ETI was $196 million, up 7% a year ago. Earnings per share increased 8% to USD 0.80 and there was a record return on tangible equity of 21%. Factor that drove the increase in profits was solid revenue growth and continued discipline -- expense discipline and credit loss management despite booking a one-off nonconversion premium of USD 25 million interest costs resulting from the payment of $250 million convertible loan facility, which represent the first tranche of the $400 million convertible debt issued in September 2017. We have now fully repaid a $400 million convertible debt and the repayment did not affect ETI's regulatory capital since the debt at fully amortized for capital as of 2022 -- as of 2021, actually, because -- as of 2021. Our business are fundamentally strong, and it generated solid revenue and earnings growth thanks to strong customer activity and innovative products. In our Consumer Banking business, we saw a healthy level of low-cost deposit driven by growth in digital transactions. Car purchase volumes are up as customers increasingly use their debit and prepaid cards. Payments on our mobile app increased significantly particularly across in the bank [ funds ] transfer, [indiscernible] and bank to wallet payments. In our commercial banking business, a 28% uplift in profit driven -- was driven by growth in our cash management businesses. Client payment activity on our platform Omni Lite, the payments platform for small businesses increased by 26% tax to on boarding of more clients. Also, our merchant acquiring business got a boost from a 130% increase in POS on boards, which translated 14% increase in payment volumes. And we know this will continue to [indiscernible] as we go forward into the future, especially in deposit mobilization. In addition, an increase in commercial and trade loans primarily associated with letters of credit contributed to the uplift in profits. Higher growth in cost management, fixed income, currency and commodities and trade businesses grew 17% increase in profits within our corporate and investment banking business. We launched new products and enhance existing ones. For example, we launched our cross-border payments to support the African Continental Free Trade Area initiative. We also enhanced our corporate API capabilities to allow more billers to integrate to our platform. In our trade business, we increased our share of the letters of credit by 5.6% last year to 6.2% as of September and grew loans by [ 10% ] to $2.3 billion. Our fixed income currency and commodity businesses benefit tremendously from a geographical spread and sales capability within foreign exchange and fixed income. As a result, FX volumes grew by 19% to $48 billion in transactions. In these times of enormous volatility and uncertainty, we prioritize areas where we have control including operating costs, particularly in this inflationary period. As we have been disciplined in managing our costs and maintaining cost growth below revenue growth, helping to drive a record cost income ratio of 56.3%. That said, we continue to evaluate all expenditure programs, and we will spend wisely to maintain our competitive edge, meet our customers' financial needs and keep our employees satisfied and motivated. More present, deteriorating economic outlook caused for some liquidity and capital management. Thanks to the confidence our customers continue to show in Ecobank franchise, deposits rose 17% in constant currency. And with our loan-to-deposit ratio of 53.8% will hold ample liquidity on our balance sheet and possessing the capacity for asset growth. On the other hand, despite the adverse impact of currency movement, the current -- the group's capital ratios are above regulatory minimum. Therefore, as we advance, we focus intensely on managing our risk-weighted assets and expect capital consumption to be light. We continue to be prudent in managing the quality of our loan book. The cost of risk in -- to 156 basis points reflective of the heightened credit environment for we increased our accumulator reserves held against our total loans to 7.1% from 6.3% a year ago, and increased cost rate of non-performing loans from 113 -- to [ 1.3% from 91% ] in prior year. During the quarter, Ecobank Nigeria finalized the sale of $200 million of stage 3 loans to the resolution vehicle. The transaction I mentioned during our second quarter earnings call. Subsequently, we have fully provided these collateralized loans at the center. As a result of this sale -- as a result, the sale has materially improved Ecobank Nigeria's NPL ratio of 15.5% to 8.7%. In September and its NPL cost rate ratio from 55.1% to 100%, respectively. However, as these loans remain within the group, the transaction has zero impact on overall group asset quality. Our priority is to remain resilient in the face of economic [indiscernible] with an intense focus on value-added services, the [ LC ] deep customer engagement and sustainable fee revenues. Our ability to do this will hinge on continuously investing on technology, product innovation and continuous investment in our people. Also, more importantly, we continue to build our strategy around environmental and social transformation especially in the ESG commitment and conducting our businesses responsibly. Last September, we announced that I will be retiring from the Ecobank, retiring from the -- from the group per Ecobank's policy. The group has engaged Jeremy Awori to succeed me. We have a well-planned transition formally starting January 2023. Jeremy, as you all know, is a highly respected leader in the banking industry with significant achievements in his previous capacities. The Board and I have absolute confidence in him to set steady form in its next phase of growth and profitability. I trust you all give Jeremy the support you still provided to the firm under my tenure. And on behalf of Ecobank, we wish him all the best. And I thank you, and I will now hand over to Ayo, our Group CFO, to take us to the numbers. Ayo, over to you.
Ayo Adepoju
executiveThank you, Ade, and good afternoon to you all. I will walk you through our financial results and provide further insight into the drivers behind our earnings. Please turn to Slide 7 on our key performance indicators. Our performance demonstrates our resilience and the benefit of diversification despite the complex operating environment, each of our businesses performed well. The KPIs highlighted on this slide tell that story. The profit before tax rose 14% or 48% when you strip out the impact of currency movement. Net revenues were up by 7% to $1.4 billion. And most importantly, fees from capital-light transactions continue to represent a significant portion of our revenues at 45.4%. The boost to profitability from higher rates and fees from payments, trade and FICC drove a record return on equity of 21%. The cost-to-income ratio continued to improve and was 56.3%. However, the challenging operating environment led to an increase in the cost of risk to 1.58%. We expect the rate of growth and the cost of risk to moderate going forward into the future. Please turn to the next slide. on the income statement. Here, I will highlight a few items. First, currency translation affect our reported numbers when the U.S. dollar appreciated against the operating currencies of our subsidiaries. Therefore, our results in constant currency assume that exchange rates remain stable over the period. It is important to reiterate this point given the significant depreciation we saw in some of our major operating currencies. Another significant factor impacting earnings in the period is the one-off $25 million charge associated with our repayments in September of the $250 million convertible loan facility, which is part of the $400 million convertible debt ETI issued in September and October 2017 Subsequently, we repaid $150 million in the month of October. Therefore, our fourth quarter results will reflect the nonconversion premium charge related to the $150 million repayment. Next is the increase in effective tax rate. Higher profit generation across different tax jurisdiction was a primary driver of the rise. But also the $25 million of nonconversion premium charge did not impact on the group tax expenses because ETI is tax exempt. Also contributing to the increase in the effective tax rate where the impact of the minimum tax rules [indiscernible] in Benin. And to finish this slide, let me briefly touch on regional performance. A key observation is the healthy underlying fundamentals we saw across the board. At constant currency basis, revenues and profit grew at double digits. So turning to the next slide on the net interest income. NII was up 6% or 24% at constant currency propelled by higher interest rates and any asset balances. Rate hikes were a catalyst for margin, hence, the net interest margin for the group rose about 10 basis points to 4.8%. On the next slide, on Slide 10, on noninterest revenue. This increased by 8% or 24% at constant currency, underpinned by [indiscernible] customer activity across a broad range of products and services. We saw growth in our merchant acquiring business, thanks to an increase in the deployment of payments at [indiscernible] like POS and higher transaction volumes. The volume of payments on Omni Plus and Omni Lite, our payment platforms for big and small businesses rose significantly. Additionally, customer-driven FX sales received a boost from higher momentum in customer activity. The noninterest revenue also includes one-off gain on sale of some of our noncore properties. The key takeaway from this slide is the NII ratio, which at 45.4% is above the peer average and reflects our strategy to drive revenues based on value-added services such as payments that do not consume capital. And with that, let's turn to payment on the next slide. We have invested heavily in our payment capabilities and built a strong portfolio of assets that offers value-based services to our customers. For example, we have gained a competitive advantage from our Pan African switch and single payment pipe linking 33 African countries. We have built a robust platform with advanced APIs that enables fintechs and other financial institutions to create bespoke solution. Our Pan African cards allow customers to make both domestic and cross-border payments, hence, payments which form a significant part of our goal to drive capital-light revenues and increase our noninterest revenue ratio. For the period, our payments revenue rose by 17% to $178 million, representing 10% of our total revenues, propelled by fee growth wholesale payments, interchange fees and card usage and merchants acquiring. Moving on to Slide 12. This slide gives you a snapshot of our growth on our digital and physical channels. The number of our customers that are engaged with us digitally continues to increase [indiscernible] the volume of transaction. Moving on to the next slide on expenses. Our operating expenses climbed 3% or 16% at constant currency, predominantly due to inflationary pressures. Importantly, what we did as a firm was to be more aggressive and intentional in driving cost discipline across board. The cost-to-income ratio of 56.3%, down from 58.3% in the previous year reflects the success we consume to record despite biting inflation. Furthermore, the cost-to-income ratios have improved in each of our 4 regions. Moving on to the next slide on deposits. I cannot overemphasize the importance of growing deposits in the current tumultuous macroeconomic environment. Low cost and stable customer deposits and house profitability and provide stable funding. For this reason, we leverage our Pan African payments suite and digital platform capabilities to drive payments and transaction banking services. For example, [ Arpan ] collect, a biller platform solution and Omni platforms drive deposit generation across our franchise. In turn, it contributes to generating low-cost CASA deposits, which account for nearly 80% of our total deposit. At $18.4 billion as of September, customer deposits jumped 17% at constant currency. Moving on to the next slide on loans. As I've noted earlier, customer engagement endeavors remain encouraging. The demand for loans was [indiscernible] within mostly corporate and SME customers, helping drive a 5% year-on-year increase in gross loans or 23% at constant currency. We underwrote mostly short-term loans, fully cognizant of the lingering credit risk, the challenging macroeconomic environment poses. To this end, we continue to stay vigilant in our loan monitoring activities and stay close to our customers. Moving on to the next slide on our lines of businesses. The underlying fundamentals of each of our businesses are resilient, thanks to relentless focus on driving customer satisfaction through innovative products and services, and this has delivered through our omnichannel strategy. In our Corporate and Investment Banking business, our PBT, profit before tax rose 17% on a revenue growth of 7%. In Commercial Banking, profit climbed by 28% on a revenue growth of 15%, while profit jumped 35% in the conserve banking business helped by an 11% growth in revenues. I will now turn to the next slide, which speaks to the performance of our regions. The rising rate environment, solid customer activity in our FICC business, payments and trade underpinned substantial underlying revenue and earnings growth that we witnessed in each of our region, hence the profitability in terms of returns on equity improved across the board. UEMOA delivered a return on equity of 23.6% compared to 21.9% in the previous year, primarily driven by fee income and efficiency gains. Anglophone West Africa's return on equity of 31.1% jumped from 27.1%.-- despite the drag of [ ipi ] inflation in Zimbabwe and South Sudan, return on equity in the Central, East and Southern Africa region climbed from 21.6% to 24.5%. Finally, Nigeria's return on equity improved from a year ago to 4.6%, which is low, but reflects a positive direction of travel. However, the region continues to contain with FX capacity and a debilitating cash reserve requirement ratio [indiscernible] as interest income generation. Therefore, the near-term strategic focus will be on low-cost deposit mobilization, payment business and market positioning. I'll now move on to the next slide on capital. We are optimizing our balance sheet and building capital to help us through these volatile times while venturing into an uncertain near-term future. Thankfully, we are generating profits which helped offset the adverse effect of foreign currency translation on equity. As of 30 June, the group's Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.1%, and the total capital ratio was 14.4%. Both are above regulatory minimum. We forecast this ratio to decline marginally by year-end primarily driven by currency movements experienced in the second half of the year. That said, we focus on optimizing our balance sheet and have seen a decline in our risk-weighted asset density since 2017. On the next slide, Slide 19, it provides a breakdown of the movements in the capital adequacy ratio. The key takeaway is that the foreign currency transition in part and regulatory capital tends to be largely offset by a reduction in risk-weighted assets. The latter is predominantly carried in local currencies and hence, reduces and value when the U.S. dollar strengthens, tending thereby to partly notify the effect of the reduction in the numerator. In the table below, we attempt to illustrate this nullifying effect in the column labeled currency translation. So finally, moving to Slide 20 on our guidance. All things being equal, our performance against guidance has been good, especially considering the challenging operating environment. For instance, the significant depreciation of our major functional currencies against the U.S. dollar, depressed reported growth levels in our numbers, an outcome we did not envisage. On the balance sheet, loan growth was ahead of guidance, while deposit fell short. However, stripping the impact of currency movement, we see that the underlying growth for both loans and deposits was strong. Revenue was supported by rate increases, volume growth and higher customer activity levels, while expenses rose on inflationary pressures. Despite the cost increase, we delivered better-than-expected cost-to-income ratio through expense discipline and revenue growth ahead of target. However, the cost of risk was slightly above the upper end of the guidance range, reflecting proactive provisioning in the face of an uncertain macroeconomic outlook. Finally, the nonperforming loans ratio fell short of the target driven by episodic increases in stage 3 loans in the UEMOA and CESA region. But reserve coverage of nonperforming loans continued to be above 100%. And ladies and gentlemen, I'll hand over to Chinedu to walk you through the group's asset, [indiscernible] and metrics and the related drivers. Thank you.
Chinedu Ikwudinma
executiveThank you, Ayo, and thank you all for joining today's call. I'll be covering the performance indices of [indiscernible] country portfolios and the macroeconomic environment as well as market [indiscernible] equitable risks. I would observe that GCEO and the GCFO has covered this point to some extent, so I will just be reinforcing them. In our last earnings call, we had said that the macroeconomic outlook was complex among certain and this remains the case today as one of the major drivers, which is the Russia-Ukraine conflict still unresolved, was in high inflation and is a tender issues across the world, especially in our markets. This challenge amongst orders notwithstanding our balance sheet and asset quality metrics remain resilient. Turning to Slide #22. The balance sheet is liquid. Our liquidity profile remains very strong anchored by customer deposits despite the prevailing macroeconomic headwinds. Demand deposits constitute 63.5% of our total, which is a major driver of our strong liquidity position. Deposits at $18.4 billion as of the end of September. There was a decrease of 2% compared to a year ago in dollar figures but actually represents a 17% increase in constant currency terms, reflecting continuing strong acquisition of deposits across our footprint. Going to Slide #23 on asset quality. Our gross loans were $9.92 billion as at the end of the third quarter, which is a 5% growth year-on-year in dollar terms, but in reality it was a 23% growth in constant currency terms, reflects momentum in that respect, but still conservative and sedate in the context of the market conditions that we see this time our [ worker ] forecast going into the near future. We remain laser focused on managing our nonperforming loan portfolio by aggressively pushing for recoveries and collections, while ensuring the migration of exposures from the performing bucket to the nonperforming is contained. Our NPL ratio at 6.4% is definitely better than 6.9% where it was a year ago. And recall, it was 6.2% at the end of 2021. We expect to sustain this profile in terms of improvement going into the end of the year, and this reflects the intrinsic resilience of our portfolio despite strained market conditions. We continue to pursue a strategy of [indiscernible] portfolio against headwinds that we anticipate by proactively taking provisions causing footprint and also at the center, which as GCFO has highlighted, brought our cost of risk to 1.58% as and along over that period. This is well within our guidance, our appetite of [indiscernible] 2% going to the end of the year. Because we have acted quite vigorously in the first half of the year, we do not expect the same momentum in terms of growth of cost of risk going to the end of 2022. We continue to build our appropriate risk and control infrastructure, and we are investing in our people by developing their abilities and can continue to successfully manage our business in this increasingly challenging times. We believe that being proactive and anticipatory and acting as a support consultancy operation to the overall business is the way to operate in these market conditions and that our focus from a risk management perspective. Moving to Slide #24, diversified loan portfolio. [indiscernible] in this slide, our loan book remains diversified with our exposure to governments leading at 15% of the overall portfolio followed by services at 14% and manufacturing at 13%, you can see there's a wide diversity there. Exposure to the upstream oil and gas at 10% reflecting a delivered strategy to contain our exposures, there following challenges we faced on that front a few years ago. Our portfolio is skewed towards the corporate customers in the CIB, which accounts for 73% of our portfolio with commercial banking at 16% and 11% in Consumer Banking. The UEMOA region remains the largest component of our portfolio in terms of site accounting 46%, followed by Nigeria 26% and CESA at 16%. Slide #25, nonperforming loans, stage 3 loans. As shown in this slide, the oil and gas sector constitutes 36% of our nonperforming loan stock, followed by construction and services. We have focused on these areas in terms of origination to make sure that we address any challenges that had arisen prior to this period to ensure that our origination is much improved. Ecobank Nigeria accounts for 35% of non-performing loan book followed by the resolution vehicle, as earlier has been referenced by the GCEO in terms of some of the assets that were transferred there recently, and UEMOA at 15%. I know that most of you are assessing [ dilution ] vehicle were initially within the Nigeria business. Our corporate and institutional banking business accounts for [ 64% ] of nonperforming loans. Again, highlighting the earlier issues we've spoken to in terms of some of the oil and gas assets that were originated about 7 years ago or more in that market. It's also worth noting that the 64% of our loan book, that's nonperforming is in U.S. dollars. What that means is that, that component is somewhat sticky as the currencies devalue. So that is also something that we manage too as we look at our asset quality numbers in the group. Moving to Slide #26. In terms of IFRS 9 movements. This slide shows the movements in the trade classification categories in our loan book over the first 3 quarters of 2022. I think it's important to highlight that if you look closely, you'll see that there is dynamism in our Stage 1 portfolio, where you've seen $4.97 billion reduction mitigated by a $4.53 billion increase due to various new loans and all of that and repayments. This highlights the dynamics of our portfolio, which also highlights what I've shared with you earlier that a large component of our loan book is short term, more than 50%. So that highlights that dynamism which is very important for us in the context of the market conditions that we see now and going into the future. If you look at the Stage 2 bucket $136 million of loans represent reductions to the repayments and [indiscernible] upgrades from downgrade from Stage 1. And there was also a $275 million increase in Stage 2, which represents downgrade from Stage 1 and also upgrades from Stage 3 and equity interest. And in Stage 3 bucket are the $138 million reduction and are made up of some recoveries and core collections as well as write-offs. And the $129 million increase represents new NPL that was booked over the period. And with that, I'll now hand over to Ato to open the Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Ato Arku
executiveThank you, Chinedu, and thank you all. So we're now going to move into the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions].
Chinedu Ikwudinma
executiveA maximum of 3, you mean?
Ato Arku
executiveYes, a maximum of 3. [Operator Instructions]. So we'll go into the Q&A session, please.
Muyiwa Oni
analystMy name is Muyiwa Oni. I work with SBG Securities. I have a few questions. I think I'll start with if -- just following on the commentary on the impact -- the likely impact to expect on Ghana following the restructuring. We get a sense of -- I guess we'll be looking through the balance sheet, I'm just trying to understand will likely impact. I think it's a sense of the size of the longer-dated Ghana bond that would help. So if you get a sense, if you could share that because it's still not clear in the balance sheet? And then I guess, if you could also share if you have any direct exposures from the group to the government. So is there any direct loan exposures to the government outside the Ghana bond exposure? I think that will help given that as a group, you have a decent exposure to government across [indiscernible] as you operate in. I think if you could also share if you -- I think any concerns you have beyond Ghana. So I know on the continent, there are quite a number of countries we did challenges right now and how you are processing and what types of scenarios you're trying to forecast in terms of how you go into 2023, whether the challenges on the continent. I'll pause and then come back with follow-up questions.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveThis is Ade. I will take -- I'll ask Ayo to take the first series of questions, and I will provide updates to the deference and the need to cover on that. I will take the third question on concerns beyond Ghana. Ayo?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveOkay. Muyiwa, so you would know that what has happened in the last one week or so in Ghana has been lots of moving parts, right? So you started off, of course, on Sunday with the Minister of Finance who released in a press release, as it affects the domestic exchange program for the domestic bonds, right? There has been a series of conversations, ongoing conversations with the authorities in Ghana. The Central Bank also, the Bank of Ghana has also come forward yesterday to release a secular on the regulatory release. That is applicable to banks in the industry. So there are lots of moving parts at this point in time. So as not to create any confusion in the market and also not to sabotage ongoing conversations with the government. At this point in time, we would rather want to come back to you when all of these moving parts are fully settled, and we can provide a definitive impact assessment to the market on this because we don't want to give some set of numbers now. And then in the next week or 2 weeks with changes in the position of the government. But one thing that we do know for sure and what the group's CEO had mentioned earlier in his speech is the fact that the Minister in general, the country recognize the fact that the stability of the financial sector is very critical, right? So they don't want to do anything that would jeopardize the stability of that industry. So that is why they are willing to go through this process with all the stakeholders to get to a landing point that, of course, reduces the pinpoint on everyone. But one thing that we can say for sure is, just like I did mention, the fundamentals of the country remains very good in terms of its natural resources. Also Ghana is a country that is credited to operate on the rule of law. So we believe that with all of these variables, the forecast of the authorities in the countries to ensure that -- to reduce the pain as much as possible. So please allow us to come back to you because we're in the middle of negotiations and conversations with government. So we don't want to say anything on this call that would jeopardize that. So we'll come back to you when we've done all the assessment and analysis. And when there's certainty as to the outcome, I will do that and come back on that. I'll hand over to Ade for...
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. So I'll take it. So Muyiwa, we do have some bonds, but some -- since I have been included, excluded and we just want to make sure we get that certain before we come back to you. We have mano-exposure outside Ghana in the treasuries that hold the positions in the bonds of governmental Ghana. But as you know, since those treasuries, they will have bought it at different price points. And therefore, we're still working through that. But we -- as you know, treasuries will have bought those at different price counts. Concerns beyond Ghana and how we are processing? We're working through because we've been in this space for some time. Remember, we went through -- even in Ghana, in 2015, 2016, 2017, we went through the energy crisis, the [indiscernible], the VRA, the BDCs and coal and we resolve those things successfully. And we've been working in places like Zimbabwe and Nigeria and South Sudan over the years. So the way we're looking at each of the countries, we're looking at them in detail and trying to make sure that we position the firm in a way that negative outcomes are well mitigated and you have seen over time how we've dealt with that. The rest of the countries -- the countries that are small are not open, okay? Some of the countries that are small are not open. Therefore, the exogenous shock impacting them, as I said in my opening comments, are not as large in terms of impact as it is for Ghana. Nigeria is a small economy in the global context, but it's not open. And therefore, the shops that is coming through, you see that is why it's not a [indiscernible] through Nigeria the way it has created challenges in Ghana. Kenya, we're looking at Kenya, but Kenya is in a much different space, right? Because of the initial entry situation and its ability to continue engagement with international communities. And we see so many, as you will have seen, so many of the support structures that has come to Kenya in the last few months. I mean you've seen Kenya has finished the conversation with IMF. It's no longer something that is coming through, they finished conversation with the World Bank. They finished conversation with all the other people. So the rest of the economies, the UEMOA region where we see it, you've seen the depreciation of the euro that went to about from [ 1 ], [ 1.5 ] thereabouts to around [ 0.98 ] as we closed September is now back to [ 1.05 ]. So we've seen some positive movements in those places. We're also seeing activities. If you look at the UEMOA, we are seeing good activities in terms of oil discovery in a place like Senegal and the resumption of oil exploration and gas exploration and all those things. So it's not -- there are challenges. We're seeing them, we're dealing with them, but there are also opportunities that we are dealing with. I hope that answers your question.
Muyiwa Oni
analystNot so much because I guess it would be good to have maybe some more color just to be able to, I think, properly just assess the risk and how -- I guess, how one should be expecting how and in [indiscernible]?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. So you look at -- Ghana is about 10% of our balance sheet as a group. Okay? So that gives you a sense of where we are. But it doesn't mean we are losing 10% of our balance sheet. Because we are in the middle of all these negotiations. And I think it's important, I will come back to you, where today is only 9th. We'll finish really quickly and we'll come back to you. I'm sure you remember, we keep our words.
Muyiwa Oni
analystI guess we can follow up, hopefully, in more detail over the next couple of weeks.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveYes, yes. Yes. I mean, that would be good, because as you know, all these things, we're party to various negotiations, we're party to various conversations.
Ato Arku
executiveYour next question would be from [ Constantine ].
Unknown Analyst
analystI had 3 questions that I wanted to ask. The first one, what is the outlook for the impairments for the credit costs in Nigeria from now on? So I believe there has been substantial cleanup that has already been done for that subsidiary. But from now and going forward, what's the outlook for the credit costs for the impairments? The second question, what's the outlook for the cost of risk for the group for 2023? If you could please provide some estimate, some high-level guidance on that. And the last question, what's the plan of the group with respect to the refinancing of the 2024 Eurobond. And if the market turns out to be closed and not available for such refinancing, do you have the capacity to rebuild that bond by allocating liquidity within the group from internal sources? Is that an option? Is it viable? Is it usable in size to meet this maturity if needed?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. Thank you. I will ask Chinedu to take the first 2 questions, and I will take the refinancing question.
Chinedu Ikwudinma
executiveThank you very much. I think we expect the impairment levels in Nigeria to reduce significantly as GC had already mentioned, because of some of the actions we've taken, for example, the transfer of the $200 million of factory assets to the resolution vehicle. So we expect that to normalize and to begin to arrive at the normal level for the group going into the future. So if you look at cost of risk for the group at under 2%, about 1.5% to 1.6%, thereabout. So going into the future, we think that will be the level we will have in Nigeria. And if you also note that in Nigeria, there has been a big push towards non-loan revenues, non-loan businesses in that market, that those are actually some of the fastest-growing components of that business. We continue to originate there, but that origination is very high quality. And if you also look at the challenged assets in Nigeria, most of those assets we have created more than 7 years ago. So we're not seeing new challenged assets of significance coming out of the market. So that anchors our expectation that the level of impairments in Nigeria will normalize and begin to reflect the group profile going into the future. As GC had already mentioned to you, we have already taken provisions at 200% for the names that were transferred to the resolution vehicle at the group level. So that element, there is no downside risk in terms of additional impairments arising from those assets. Now regarding cost of risk 2023 and into the future, we expect that to be actually below 1.5 percentage points, because as we have shared with you, coming to this year, we are doing quite, what I say, conservative in terms of taking provisions, some of that centrally in our books, and if you look at the profile of -- our committed provisions compared to the overall loan book for the bank is actually much more conservative than PI institutions. So there has been some level of inoculation. So on that basis, we expect that we will be able to come in within that guidance of 1.5% -- between 1.2% to 1.5% for 2023. Now with that I return to Ade to answer the other question.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveThank you. I think, clearly, the credit cost is spot-on, but we also -- there are potentials for opportunities in that market as the country goes through leadership selection process next year. We'll have available to it all the policy options that can create growth in that country. We've also seen recently some ability to take crude to market, which as Chinedu did say, a large component of our exposure in the oil and gas and being able to take crude to market without disruption allows those names to perform much better. The cost of risk would be between 100 and 150 basis points going forward into the future given the heavy lifting we've done. So the refinancing -- thank you that you said is 2024. The way we've positioned the liquidity of the firm is that there is nothing maturing in 2023. So we have 2023 clear. And as you know, the 2024 maturity is not a capital item, it's a liquidity item. Therefore, there are flexibilities on how to refine that within the banking group if the oil market remains closed. [indiscernible] therefore doesn't count towards our capital, it's a liquidity item.
Unknown Analyst
analystGot it. Understood. On the last question, if I could please ask a follow-up. Is the group able to reallocate liquidity from within the group towards the holdco and promptly and in size to meet that maturity if needed? Or is access to capital markets for a new borrowing essential?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveNo. That's why I said, if it is capital, like in Tier 2, we will not be able to do that without inducing capital. If it is liquidity, then we can. And the size relative to the size of the balance sheet of the group in foreign currency is not as material.
Ato Arku
executiveThank you. And your next question will be coming from [ Karim ].
Unknown Analyst
analystMy question is regarding securitization in Nigeria. This discussion that's been happening for the last month or two. If you can give us the latest, what sort of are the rates that are being discussed, the timing of when it may be instituted, and what it means for CRR and special drawing rights.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. Karim, it's been disclosed. The timing, I think if you ask me, [indiscernible], but it's something they have not given us the exact timing. I don't want to commit the governor and the government. But I think the securitization at least creates, in my mind, a clarity around the debt structure of the Nigerian government and how that is heard, and therefore, it is easy to account for. Our understanding is that, again, depending on what happens next year, as you know, there will be change of government, will determine the level of -- the question of CRR has been a drag on the banking revenues in the country. And I think everybody is aware of that, including the Central Bank and the authorities, and the intention to go back to a much more explicit policy-driven cash reserve requirements is the direction we think they want to go. But as you and I know, that is what we wish for, that is what we stated. But I think, as they go through the various issues they have -- for example, let me be clear, if there is a withdrawal of subsidy, okay, some of the needs that drives the CRR and excess fiscal dominance will go away. If there is flexibility around the currency pricing, some of those issues will also go away. But I also understand the social issues they are also continuing with. So let's -- directionally, they want to do it; timing, I can't be very specific right now. I wish I can.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd just the rates that you -- I mean, obviously, the banks, there were some discussions on the rates. I know the banks came back with their feedback. What's the latest there?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveWe've given the feedback to the regulator to give some space, so that, that come back. Because remember, we can have rates that is materially below inflation, and we've given that feedback. Because if you have a long-term rate on any instrument materially below inflation, that is -- I mean, it doesn't help anybody.
Unknown Analyst
analystSure. Okay. Great. I'll follow up in a few weeks, then. Thanks.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveSure.
Ato Arku
executiveThank you. And your next question would be from [ Solina ].
Unknown Analyst
analystSo my first question, sorry about it, but it's about Ghana. So I understand that you don't want to share much information with us investors. But if we could just like stick to the factual number, let's say. So what's the portion of securities or govies, let's say, that you've got in the local currencies versus foreign currency, so the split would be much appreciated. If that has been taken into account in Slide 18? So when you're actually saying or putting your target for year-end and for the following years, do you factor in any impact on Ghana? Second question on same question, do you factor in any impact on Nigeria on the upcoming depreciation? And if yes, what's your best scenario in that case? And Third question, what is the account double leverage?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. I will take the Ghana question. I'll ask Ayo to take -- Okay, I'll take Ghana and Nigeria, and Ayo will take double leverage. I think the Ghana division, we have been circumspect. It's because we do have a large exposure in Ghana. And that exposure is broken down into multiple tranches. Some of those are included, some of those are excluded. And during the period of this negotiation, it's just important that if you give us the time, we will come back to you with specifics. Because if we've gone to government and say, there are certain conditions under which this exposure was created, we think it should be excluded, and if I then give you a number today, it would not be in the right space. So give us the time to gather. Nigeria, the upcoming scenario, we believe that the Nigeria economy needs to be opportunist to get to the point where it is a functioning mixed economy. We have priced this at the time being based on fundamentals. And that price [indiscernible] fundamentals include the price of the currency. Given our experience to date, it is unlikely that, that movement in currency will happen before election, which is February next year, and may not happen before the handover of government, which is coming in May next year. The government has scheduled a couple of things that they wanted to do around the second half of next year, especially around the question of withdrawal of subsidy. Now depending on how they handle all of those things together is what will drive what the ultimate devaluation of the currency will look like. If $15 billion of subsidy is removed, for example, then you know the fiscal dominance that is creating the problem today will get reduced. Secondly, if, for example, the question of oil output today, which has been depressed to below 1,000,000 barrels a day -- I understand recently it has gone to 1.6 million, if they can solve the security problem with the trade they first solved and therefore, you have output of 1.6 million, 1.7 million consistently in 2023, then it takes to a different direction as far as the value of the currency is concerned. If, for example, the refinery that is good to produce in Nigeria is able to produce all the fuel that Nigeria needs, and therefore, the demand for foreign currency for the purpose of meeting fuel import for the country goes away, then it tests you -- so the reason I'm giving all of this is that I want to make sure that you get the gist of the conversation that is not as straightforward as you move from 400, 450 to 800. There are conditions under which it may be much lower. There are conditions under which we can lead that level. But the macro adjustment that needs to be done is what we expect the government to do. And if they do that, then the Nigeria that you have in 2023 will be at a different level. Now in our planning, we've assumed the devaluation that is going to happen. And as we finish the end of the year, we'll be able to give you a target for 2023. I will let Ayo to take the double leverage question.
Unknown Analyst
analystSorry, just a follow-up question. So currently in Slide 18 in your December '23 capital ratios or targets, what is the underlying assumption for Nigeria, deval or no deval?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveNigeria, end of the year, there'll be no deval. I can tell you that.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd December '23?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveIn December 2023, I think there will be freedom in that, in our budget, if I assume [indiscernible] that is much higher. But the freedom, that will be there, depends on the macro choices, but developing I assume for 2023 and going forward.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo in your 13.4% target for the capital ratio, total CAR, this does include a depreciation of the naira.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveYes, that includes depreciation of the naira, but that also has not factored in appreciation of the euro.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And then to which level the depreciation? What's your base case?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveAyo?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveYes. For naira, we've assumed circa about 100 naira depreciation from current levels. Yes.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo around 550?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveYes.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveAnd also remember, the depreciation matter affects both the top line and the bottom line as well. Okay. Ayo?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveSo I mean, on the double leverage ratio, for this year, we are in the range of the 150 to 160. And I will explain that, right? So the choice of the accounting rules that we've chosen is to apply equity method. And that also implies that we're taking noncash unrealized gains. So for example, the currency depreciation that we've seen this year has been unprecedented, which has significantly affected the value of our investments and also the value of our equity. Because the double leverage ratio is an improper fraction, because the numerator is higher than denominator. So if you deduct same number from the numerator and denominator, the ratio increases. So that has been the reason why we've seen that switch from where we were last year to where we are today. But I must mention also, as you're aware, with all of the various conversations with the [indiscernible], they recognize the fact that, yes, double leverage ratio remains elevated, but there are other compensating factors, the FCY liquidity that Ade had spoken that exists within the group. The fact that there is an improvement in the efficiency ratio of the group. Currently, we are at about 56.3%, the lowest that we've seen in over 10 years, speaks to the fact that we are taking intentional conscious decision to optimize the way we distribute our products and also organize ourselves. There has been improvement in the cost of risk and also the profitability in general. So they look at all of these other compensating factors to moderate the impact of the elevated double leverage ratio. And also just to highlight the fact that internally, we took a decision to say we want to reduce the double leverage ratio, but we'll do it through the raise of an AT1 instrument. The market this year has been where it is. It's difficult to do any of that kind of transaction, but we are hopeful, going into the future as the market conditions improve, there's market access, especially raising quite a capital instrument like an AT1, that is a strong way to further reduce our double leverage ratio.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveI think the point I just made is that we will have done a double AT1 instrument in the market. I think we did reference that as part of the solution to the double leverage matter. We didn't go to market this year because the market is closed. As we go into the future, depending on where the market is, we'll be able to do something. And as you know, last year, we actually did an AT1 instrument with one of our shareholders. So there are always going to be options and opportunities as we go forward in the future. Provided we continue to remain profitable and generate capital, the double leverage issue, we should be able to solve.
Unknown Analyst
analystThank you very much for this. So when I look at Slide 18, again, so I see a Tier 1 target of 11% by '22. This is potentially because you are looking at raising additional AT1 again by year end with some of your existing shareholders?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveSo Solina, what you're referencing is internal target set by the Board. But of course, just like I did mention, we are evaluating all the tools available to us. Of course, we are aware that the best one of capital is the one that is generated internally. But of course, as the market opens up in the course of next year, hopefully the second half of 2023, there will be choices in terms of what we can do from a market point of view. And also the profitability of the group would also be a strong factor to help us to get there. I hope that is clear. Thank you.
Ato Arku
executiveAnd your next question would come from Dmitry Ivanov. I will move to the next person in line. [indiscernible].
Unknown Analyst
analystSo I have two questions. My first one is on $200 million of your [indiscernible] sold in Q3 to a resolution vehicle. So should we expect more of this sale over the next few quarters in Nigeria and others closer? And my second question is with regards to the rate changes we've seen in tax rule in some of the costs where we've seen that lead to the increase in the effective tax rate. Given revenue pressure from some of these countries, do you envisage that we will see these tax regimes would grow to cover the various revenue gaps of the various countries?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. So $200 million sale to resolution vehicle, do we expect more of that in the future? No. Because the absolute nonperforming loan that is sitting in Nigeria today is in the $200 million range and the provision that is in that market is only $200 million range as well. Therefore, we think that it's appropriately sized as it is. And as that business generates revenue in the future, we expect for it to be able to build its capital base. Do we expect that to come from other parts of the group? As it's currently constituted, total Stage 3 loan is about $600 million and change. $200 million of that is in Nigeria, $200 million of that is in resolution vehicle, and $200 million of that is in the rest of the market. So that tells you we do not have Stage 3 pressure in the rest of the market. Of course, we need to continue to be vigilant. As internal vigilance is the price of freedom, we need to continue to be vigilant that we don't get into trouble. But we think that with the way we've originated in the last few years, we should actually be getting more credit as we reserve and recover. Remember, most of the provision we're talking about is without thinking about the collateral that we hold from some of these customers. Changes in the tax rules, Ayo has explained that the increase in the effective tax rate is not just because of changes in tax rule, it's because there was also an increase in the expense at -- a $50 increase in expense at [indiscernible]. Because the [indiscernible] doesn't pay taxes, the [indiscernible] doesn't get reward for that. There will always be changes up and down in a tax group. We will comply with all the tax rules that comes in our countries. But remember also the government is trying to get revenue from economic activity. So if the tax rule makes it difficult for economic activity to happen, the government knows that the tax revenue will reduce. So it's always a balance between the rates and also the aggregate tax revenue that they collect. But I think that the governments are aware that and they will block loopholes, they will increase their tax base, but I don't think they will continue to intensify tax that we pay as an entity, if that is the direction of your question?
Unknown Analyst
analystI just have 1 follow-up question. So with regards to recovery effort, how well will you reach your recovery effort so far? And what percentage of data we have been able to recover? If that can be put in numbers?.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveI will allow my colleague, Chinedu, to give you the recovery numbers. But I think the effort has been pretty good because we've made significant recovery, if you look over time and where we are today. I think Chinedu will have the specific numbers. And as we go forward in the future as well, there are markets where sale of assets has not been open for some time. That we believe sale of assets will be open going forward in the future. Chinedu?
Chinedu Ikwudinma
executiveNo, thank you very much, Ade. I think I will speak to recovery in the context of resolution vehicle primarily. So certainly, because if you recall, at the initial stage where it was set up, some assets were transferred to that vehicle. Some of those were deep distressed assets. But even as that, we have achieved a level of recovery as well over 30% over time despite that dynamic, and this is really cash payments into the bank or into that vehicle. We still hold substantial assets in that vehicle that as GC has said, we have the liberty to dispose. I think the reason why that hasn't been done in an aggressive way is the market conditions in Nigeria which, as we have indicated, we expect to improve in the near future. So certainly, the assets that we announced, for example, the recently transferred assets, actually have much better profile. So some of these entities, oil and gas entities, E&P names with substantial results. So really, the reason for transferring those into resolution vehicle is because of the expertise we have in that vehicle and the focus we have in that vehicle. That's the main thing that we do. We wanted to liberate in some ways, would I say, the time and business of Ecobank Nigeria to be able to focus on the business initiatives that are going after at this point in time, and have these assets in a vehicle where the team is very specialized, very focused and all that. So we certainly expect the level of recovery there to build much more superior to what we had achieved in the past.
Ayo Adepoju
executiveAnd just to also add, the recovery for the group, for example, for the 9 months, we've had about $107 million, if you look at total recoveries and provisions released, so $107 million, compared to last year of about $128 million. Of course, the market condition has been very challenging, but we'll continue to put all the best efforts towards recovering on the NPL next year.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveI just wanted [indiscernible] to know that yes, I think the recovery effort is ongoing. And as Ayo said, we recovered over $100 million that will be converted this year. And that is not to talk about the names that has been further solved, where the customers have started to repay and where we have even written them off. Okay, back to you, Ato.
Ato Arku
executiveThe next question will come from [indiscernible].
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. So good afternoon, everybody. I hope everyone is very well. So I only have one question. And my question is why do you keep so long before publishing your 9-month results? This is my only question.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveBecause they needed to be audited.
Unknown Analyst
analystAll right. No problem. Thank you very much. That's all.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveZach, your question is straight and my answer is straight. We are telling to the market we will delay because we want to audit. Yes, we told the market it will be delayed because we wanted to audit. It seems Dmitry has been [indiscernible] for a while.
Ato Arku
executiveYes, he came back. When we initially called him, we couldn't get to him.
Unknown Analyst
analystThank you for the presentation. I apologize for the second call issue. Is it possible just to provide us like more color on this capital ratios, which you already like covered, but I'm looking, again, at Slide 18 with expected CET ratio of 9% by the end of 2023, right? And I guess, like my question -- just correct me if I'm wrong, but minimum required ratio for CET1 will be 8.5%, including all these additional buffers, right, and you project like 9% CET ratio. And situation might kind of deteriorate when it comes to currencies in Ghana and in Nigeria. So you will have only like 50 basis points buffer. Are you concerned about the situation? And you kind of like -- I think like it's already kind of difficult challenging question, but maybe any views on this small buffer would be great. My first question, right? My second question with regards to liquidity, right? So you already addressed this question on the double leverage. But is it possible just to give us some information color on the liquidity position at the parent level and expected cash outflows, cash inflows for the 2023, right? So you mentioned that Ghana might be kind of limited for limited use because of the situation there. But any kind of expectation how you will source liquidity, from which levels, which banks, which countries to cover parent level interest payments would be great. So like my second question. And last one is a quick one. Is it possible to remind us of your open FX position in U.S. dollars? I think the latest one was reported at the end of 2021. Has the situation changed during 2022? So I think you have 3 questions.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. Thank you. Ayo will take your questions.
Ayo Adepoju
executiveOkay. Thank you. Let me start with the first one in terms of the capital ratio for 2023. Yes, you're right, our current projection is 9.0%, minimum is 8.5%. But of course, you know, the minimum is broken down into 5%, the real minimum 250 basis points the capital conservation buffer, and also 100 basis point for the significant important financial institutions buffer. The movement between 2022 and 2023 is primarily due to the final residual IFRS 9 day 1, the amortization that we need to take in 2023, then after doing that in 2023, that's it. So we're done with the IFRS 9 day 1. We've also made assumption around the currency depreciation that is flowing through the FCTR. So that is also one of the major assumptions on that. You might argue that what our broad assumption on FCTR is going to hold. So for example, in our budget, we didn't assume that the CFA currency, the euro would appreciate next year. But what we're seeing in the last 1 month or 6 weeks, we're seeing an appreciation in the CFA currency, about 6%. If that holds, then that is a positive uplift on the numbers. But overall, we do believe that the ratio would be better than projected. Of course, we have the tax of growing at the bottom line in terms of profitability, earnings is the best one of capital, and we expect that to continue. And then whilst we continue to watch the impact of the currency depreciation, but hopeful that the CFA would improve on the back of the fact that the U.S. Fed is getting to the end of their tightening policy. So by February, March next year, we don't expect any further increases in the interest rates by the U.S. Fed that would trigger a strengthening of the dollar. You've asked your second question around the liquidity position of the holding company. Just to give you a brief snapshot. Of course, you know, as ETI, basically, we do 3 things: face the shareholders, face the debt holders, and also manage the firm. So we've got through major cash flows. The dividend that we get from our subsidiaries, the management fees that I will call the GSA income. In terms of 2023 projection, we believe that our dividend for next year should be in the range of the $140 million. This year should be in the range of $130 million. So there is a growth of about $10 million. In our projection for 2023, we've taken out Ghana because we do believe that Ghana will not be able to pay dividend next year on the back of everything that you've read in the news. But we also have a positive story in the sense that the CEMAC region, the Central Africa region that hasn't paid dividend for 2 years would resume dividend payment next year. So the positive upside from CEMAC outweighs the negative downside from Ghana. So that's why we are seeing that increase in projection from about $130 million to $140 million in dividend income next year. The management fee is broadly flat around that $25 million, $30 million on an annual basis. Then on the other side, the outflows, the 2 major items, the finance and expenses for the debt and also the cost of running the business, the operating cost, for financing, around circa $120 million, operating circa $30 million. So overall, we envisage outflows continue to be in excess of the inflows that we have. Then the third question that you asked in terms of the...
Unknown Analyst
analystJust one quick follow-up. In terms of the outflows, do you project any kind of contributions, equity injections in the subsidiary level? I mean maybe some of the subsidiaries are reaching minimum like capital ratios and might require additional equity injection, or that's not the case in your budget models?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveYes. Our view is we don't have any country that would require any material capital injection in the cost of 2023. Most of the countries where we have setting constrained their actions to dealing with them internally through using minority shareholders. But we don't envisage any capital outlay based on information available at this point in time.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. And the last one on this FX open USD position?
Ayo Adepoju
executiveSo in terms of the group, so we've got -- there are 2 things. So in terms of the FCY liquidity that exists in the group, we've got circa $500 million to $600 million within the group. And you will see that the rating agencies normally include that in the ratings report. But if you are speaking specifically to the open position in terms of what we disclosed on our balance sheet, across the group in terms of all of our subsidiaries, we respect the regulatory requirements in terms of the open position. Some we have net positive. Some would have short and long term. But overall, we continue to operate within the regulatory requirements. I don't know if your question is specific to a particular country or it's just a general question.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveDmitry, we can actually come back to you with specifics if you let us know what exactly you have. So we can come back to you because the FX open position, remember, is at the banking accurate level, and therefore, we don't take FX as a group. Of course, we know when we aggregate it. But if there are specifics, we can actually come back to you.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Sure. I will email you. Thank you for your time and detailed answers.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveYes. So I think, in a nutshell, for the liquidity, 2023, we don't have big maturity or other operating expense and operating income. And then, I have addressed the question of what will happen in 2024.
Ato Arku
executiveThank you. I think our last question will be coming from Solina.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Sorry, me again, I'm just actually following up on Dmitry's question. So if you could provide us with the FX net open position of the subsidiary in Nigeria, that would be very helpful. That's my first question. And my second question, it's on Nigeria, given that your subsidiary is actually involved in the international market, when do you actually plan on publishing a bit more frequent financial information. That would be very useful for us investors. And if you could, in the meantime, give us the current capital ratios of Nigeria.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveOkay. I'll take this question since it's Nigeria. The FX net open position, I don't have it off head. But as you know, the FX open position is managed by the regulator in the various countries. It's actually a small percentage of the shareholder fund, and we can get that specific to you, Solina. I agree with you on the frequency of provisioning of the financial returns. I will commit to you that I'll make it more frequent going forward.
Unknown Analyst
analystThat will be very useful. And would you have the capital ratios of the...
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveI don't have the capital ratio off head right now. I think the last time the regulatory minimum was 10% and the country was 11.75% or something.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd so Nigeria had how much buffer?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveIt has a buffer of 175 basis points.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo versus minimum CAR of 10%, so here 1.75%, right?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveYes, yes, yes.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd this was as of June?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveNo, I think it's as of September? There was a regulatory audit. It's not yet published, that's why I am being careful. It's a regulatory audit. As you know, the capital is regulatory capital. I think that's the question you asked me, regulatory capital.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. So I was asking the actual ratios. So 11.75%?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveIt's 11.75% versus a minimum of 10%.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd this does include retained earnings?
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveNo, because not yet audited at that time.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And it would be much appreciated if you could come back to me on the FX at open position. I'm sure Ato has got my name.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveYes, we will come back to you on FX open position.
Ayo Adepoju
executiveYes. So I can take that. It's actually net long at about $10 million, yes, Solina.
Ato Arku
executiveThank you, everyone. At this time, we have no more questions. Thank you for joining, and that marks the end of the call, and have a great day. Thank you.
Ade Ayeyemi
executiveThanks, everybody.
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