Ecopetrol S.A. (ECOPETROL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 5, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning. My name is Natalia, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's Earnings Conference Call, in which we will discuss the main financial and operating results in 2024. There will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol's senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Ricardo Roa, CEO of Ecopetrol; Rafael Guzman, Executive Vice President of Hydrocarbons. Camilo Barco, CFO; and David Riaño, Executive Vice President of Transition Energies. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Roa, you may begin your conference.
Ricardo Barragan
executiveWelcome to the operational and financial results call of the Ecopetrol Group. We met our operational and financial targets, consolidating a growth path, we set the foundations for a solid beginning for 2025 and enabled new possibilities to progress in the energy transition. I want to highlight our reserves replacement results. The reserve replacement ratio was 104% with the addition of 260 million barrels of oil equivalent of proven reserves, maintaining an average reserve life of 7.6 years. This doubles the addition of proven reserves when compared to 2023, which reflects our commitment to the country's energy security. Our own 89% of the results response to organic management and was complemented by the acquisition of Repsol's 45% stake in the CPO-09 Block, which added 32 million barrels of oil equivalent to our results. We renewed the agreement with Oxy to extend the development plan in the Permian Basin with an estimated investment of [ $885 ] million in 2025 including the drilling of 91 development wells. We achieved an average production of 746,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding our annual goal and the highest level of the last 9 years. In exploration, we surpassed our 15 well target by drilling 16 wells with a 3 years productory success rate of 43%, where the Sirius-2 were in the Colombian Caribbean offshore stands out as it is a key to expand the country's gas potential. In midstream, we exceeded our annual goal by transporting an average of 1,119,000 barrels per day. This achievement proves our resilience and operational flexibility, ensuring the supply of crude to the refineries and products to our customers. Regarding the downstreams, we faced electrical reliability challenges, while successfully completing the annual plan of shutdowns and major maintenance achieving average operational [ viability ] of 94.5% and reaching an average throughput of 414,000 barrels per day. In the commercial front, our trading subsidiaries in Singapore and Houston continued their support in markets and customers diversification, improving the crude margins when compared to 2023. Let's move to the next slide, please. We accomplished a year of strong economic performance that generates value for our shareholders despite external factors as exchange rates and inflation, which affected us currently. In 2024, we recorded total revenues of COP 133.3 trillion, an EBITDA of [ COP 54.1 trillion ] with an EBITDA margin of 41% and net income of COP 14.9 trillion. Excluding external factors, net income would be COP 21 trillion, an increase of nearly 10% compared to 2023. We invested over $6 billion of CapEx, including the acquisition of CPO-09 in line with our annual plan. Additionally, we collected [ in charge ] account receivable from the fuel stabilization price fund of 2023 and celebrated a 63% reduction of the 2024 balance. Efficiencies, which have been important to mitigate cost increase, reached COP 5.3 trillion, surprising in 43% the year's ambition. Meanwhile, consolidated payments to all our shareholders reached COP 42 trillion. In line with the above, we just announced the proposal for a dividend distribution of COP 214 per share, which will be subject for approval in the coming General Shareholders Meeting on March 28. Let's move to the next slide. [indiscernible] of the ESG Ecopetrol plant, the second best global rating on the oil and gas industry in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. On the environmental front, I would like to highlight three achievements. First, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by more than 462,000 tonnes of CO2 [indiscernible] since 2020, which represents the CO2 emitted by over 840,000 [indiscernible]. Second, an 81% of water reuse in our operations, increasing 7% in terms of volume when compared to 2023. And third, in biodiversity, the historic and [ avoided ] emission through natural climate solutions projects. On the social side, we invested over COP 606 billion in the sustainable transformation of the territories, our leadership in the national location awards in lieu of taxes with a 45% share and the various projects we promote to the benefit hundreds of Colombians. In innovation and technology, we became the first Latin American country to join the International Energy Agencies, Greenhouse Gas Research and Development Program which we aim boost through the Colombian Petroleum and Energy transition Institute. In governance, we were recognized as the best company in Colombia for attracting and retain talent by Merck. We also transformed our organizational structure to become more agile and efficient according to the needs of each of the business length. Finally, I would like to highlight Ecopetrol's contribution to the regional GDP within Colombia of over COP 1.3 trillion, proving that sustainability investment generates financial benefits and promote economic development. I now hand over to Rafael Guzman who will talk about the results in the Hydrocarbons business line.
Juan Pablo Diaz
analystThank you, Ricardo. In the Hydrocarbon business, we are focused on profitability and sustainable cash generation. This is demonstrated by the Ecopetrol Group's successful incorporation of proven reserves in 2024, achieving a reserve replacement ratio of 104% and maintaining an average reserve life of 7.6 years. We added 260 million barrels of oil equivalent in proved reserves, doubling the 2023 addition. In this regard, I would like to highlight the following: improved reserves revisions, the contributions of [ Rubiales and Karusel ] fields stands out. Thanks to the outstanding results of the drilling campaign and the maturation of new projects. Management efforts were focused on economic factors, mitigating the impact of a lower price of [ Brent ], which decreased by $3 per barrel compared to 2023. This was possible, thanks to the implementation of initiatives such as cost optimization measures the strengthening of the crude oil basket and agreements reached with the [ AMH ] regarding their economic rights. These actions not only mitigated the impact but also resulted in the incorporation of over 6 million barrels of oil equivalent in reserves. Now the primary contribution derived from the expansion of improved recovery projects in Colombia, amounting to 97 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing 37% of the total incorporation. Expansions and discoveries include the commercialization of [ Recife, Salta and Toritus ]. On inorganic incorporation, the main contribution relates to the acquisition of [indiscernible], 45% [indiscernible] in the CPO-09 block located in the Department of Meta. This purchase added 32 million barrels of oil equivalent to 1P reserves, and enable nearly 8 million barrels of oil equivalent of organic incorporation through synergies with the Chichimene field. Additionally, we executed divestments resulting in a net addition of 29 million barrels of oil equivalent. It is noteworthy that 89% of the total proven reserves are from fields in Colombia where we achieved 109% reserve replacement ratio. Lastly, on the gas front, in 2024, we incorporated 15 million barrels of oil equivalent following 2 years without adding proven reserves of this hydrocarbon. In addition, as part of our efforts to strengthen the gas portfolio we increased contingent resources by 1.3 trillion cubic feet, mainly from the serious discovery. Let's move to the next slide, please. As part of our active and efficient portfolio management, we successfully completed important bills in 2024 to ensure the profitable sustainability of the hydrocarbon business. Regarding acquisitions, and as previously mentioned, the purchase of Repsol's stake in the CPO-09 block, this transaction strengthens Ecopetrol's position in the [ Janus Orientales ] basin providing benefits in reserves, production and potential volumes to be developed of over 250 million barrels of oil. This also enhances decision-making agility and create synergies in the development and operational costs as Ecopetrol now holds 100% interest in the cluster that includes the Chichimene, Castilla and CPO-09 assets. Furthermore, we extended the joint venture between Ecopetrol and Oxy in the Midland area of the Permian Basin until June 2026. With the possibility of signing a new extension of the development plan in the future. The contract for the development of the Delaware sub basin will remain in force until 2027. Likewise, we implemented a dilution strategy resulting in the signing of 10 agreements with Parex, aimed at reactivating areas with high exploration and development potential. Under this agreement, Parex plans to carry out investment exploration activities in Permian Paragon. Likewise, in Putumayo, Parex will invest $350 million as carried in exploration and development with the expectation that both companies will incorporate resources in 2025 as projects mature. Simultaneously, we continue to advance our agenda with the National Hydrocarbons Agency, [ NAH ] and the Ministry of Mines and Energy to maximize activities within the areas of existing contracts and agreements. This effort has resulted in the extension of 15 exploration contracts across various regions of Colombia as illustrated on the map. All the milestones will serve as future sources for research in corporation. Let's move to the next slide, please. In exploration, we progressed with the drilling of 16 wells compared to the 15 initially planned with an investment of $454 million. As a result, 7 wells were successful, including Caripeto-1, we confirm the presence of hydrocarbons during the initial test in January 2025, 2 wells are currently under evaluation and 7 wells had no commercial hydrocarbon balance. In addition, we highlight the progression of resources to proven reserves with the commerciality of [ Recife ], which contributed to a total of 6.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. Lastly in 2024, Ecopetrol acquired interest for additional blocks in the [ Santos Sur ] project in Brazil with a 30% stake for a total of 11 blocks. Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2024, the Ecopetrol Group achieved a production of 746,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the target for the year. These results were primarily supported by the performance of the Permian and [ Kansu ] fields. Additionally, the continuous contribution of assets in Colombia, such as Castilla, [ Rogers Tim ], Chichimene and Piedemonte which generated 42% of the Ecopetrol Group's production. Fields with improved recovery technology contributed with nearly 41% of Ecopetrol Group's total production. Regarding the production levels in the fourth quarter of 2024, it is important to note that the lower levels were anticipated within the projections and are mainly attributed to the anticipation of permit activity in the first 9 months of the year, environmental events due to the rainy season, causing electrical disruptions, mainly in [ Rubiales, Yarigui ], Chichimene and Castilla. Hurricanes affecting Ecuador America, regular low oil gas sales during the end of the year. In 2025, we estimate production between 740,000 and 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day which incorporates production from the acquisition of 45% of CPO-09 but also consider social unrest risks. Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2024, transported volumes increased by more than 5,800 barrels per day compared to the previous year, primarily driven by greater deliveries of Castilla Norte crude oil from the Barrancabermeja refinery and the implementation of commercial strategies that facilitated the additional barrels outside the transportation network. Thanks to mitigation strategies, enhanced operational control and coordination with government entities, more than 7 million barrels were evacuated from the [ Canaan ] field through the [ Bicentenario ] pipeline following the suspension of the [ Banadia-Aacuco ] section of the Caño Limón Coveñas pipeline. In 2024, this segment achieved the highest net income amounting to COP 5.2 trillion and recorded the second highest EBITDA reaching COP 11 trillion and contributing to 20% of the total EBITDA of the Ecopetrol Group. Let's move to the next slide. In 2024, we the refineries achieved a throughput of 414,000 barrels per day with an average annual operational availability of 94.5% despite a challenging market and operational environment. The gross refining margin decreased by [ $10 ] per barrel compared to 2023. In 2024, it stands at $9.9 per barrel, 78% of this impact is due to the decline in international fuel prices mainly affecting diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, 11% primarily due to the effect of the lower availability of segregated light crude oil at the Barrancabermeja refinery as a result of the attacks on the Caño Limón Coveñas pipeline and the remaining 11% was the result of operational events such as the limitation of the compressor and the power shutdown at the Cartagena refinery. Regarding the latter, we continue advancing in the comprehensive plan to restore refinery's electrical reliability, having completed 4 of the 16 planned milestones. By 2025, we aim to advance 10 milestones. As a result of the after-engine factors, the segment's EBITDA stood at COP 2.2 trillion in 2024, 69% less than previous year. When normalizing for exogenous factors, the EBITDA would have been COP 6.9 trillion with an EBITDA margin of 9.9%. In 2025, the segment's efforts are concentrated on levers to enhance business profitability and mitigate exceptional effects such as cost and expenses, optimization, focus on operational and logistical efficiency. Initiatives to maximize business profitability to the production of higher-value products, including petrochemical, asphalt and chemical recycling and the execution of energy transition projects aim at sustainability and diversification of refining products into new markets, such as renewable jet and diesel production, automatic petrochemistry, low emissions hydrogen production and improvements in air quality. Let's go to the next slide. In 2024, the Ecopetrol Group continue materializing its efficiency strategy with a contribution of COP 5.3 trillion, exceeding the target proposed for the year. As shown in the lower left figure, the efficiencies were able to offset the increase in total unit cost by [ $0.97 ] per barrel, resulting in a total unit cost of $47.71 per barrel in 2024. Lifting transportation and remaining costs were impacted by exogenous factors such as exchange rate, inflation and gas prices. This year, we will continue to execute our efficiencies program with new initiatives aimed at increasing the profitability of our operations and investments, maximizing asset value, enhancing synergies within the integrated hydrocarbon chain, and identifying optimizations in our supply chain. The program aims to achieve efficiencies by COP 4.6 trillion. Now I'll turn it over to David who will discuss the main milestones of the Energies for the Transition business line.
David Alfredo Riaño Alarcón
executiveThank you, Rafael. In Ecopetrol, we acknowledge the importance of natural gas as the transition mechanism to cleaner energies. For this reason, we remain committed to the incorporation of our portfolio of options that allow us to contribute to the reliable supply of national demand in the coming years. To achieve this we are implementing all actions and investments necessary to support the country's [ NFGD ] security. In 2024, we successfully delivered the gas committee on their contracts with third parties with an average of [ 560 gigabit ] per day of natural gas and 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of LPG. This led to a production of [ 170,200 ] barrels of oil equivalent per day of natural gas and LPG with an EBITDA generation of nearly COP 2.9 trillion. This EBITDA is [ 70% ] lower than in 2023, mainly due to a lower availability of domestic natural gas and LPG and exchange rate variations. However, we continue our efforts to ensure that this business line makes a significant contribution to the achievement of our long-term goals. Throughout most of 2024, we assessed various [indiscernible] for import to natural gas through marketing opportunities and internal analysis. These evaluations both technical and financial, explored options that could spur gas demand until offshore projects from life. In this context, we highlight progress in 2 important areas: the start of the [ Lagina LNG ] project, which allow identify its methods from the technical and commercial point of view. For [indiscernible] medium-term natural gas demand and the approval to continue the studies during 2025. The binding process for [ regasification ] services, the [indiscernible] of its kind that private companies to offer regasification service to Ecopetrol. In regulatory [indiscernible], we highlight the company's efforts to promote the updating of gas marketing rules in key areas such as commercialization mechanism for the volumes coming for new gas projects, endorsement to develop the transportation infrastructure required to connect new projects with users and the need for regulatory certainty related to the development of new gas projects and the possibility of developing natural gas imports. In this line, relevant advances have materialized for the market, such as the [ crack ] solutions that strictly modify and make more flexible periods for natural gas commercialization and promote the use of all the volumes available in the market. [indiscernible] at [ 1467 ] of 2024 that makes imports an offshore natural sources buyer. And finally, the supply plan that includes a strategic transportation infrastructures for the development of new supply. Let's move on to the next slide. In terms of energy efficiency between 2018 and 2024, we reach a cumulative energy optimization of 19.9 [ petrous ] equivalent to the annual gas and power consumption of more than 1 million [ tonnes ], contributing [ to carbonates ] close to 1.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent and generating savings of COP 389 billion. These results have a measuring on the growth of Colombia's [indiscernible] and efficient energy program, which promotes an efficient use of energy in different sectors and activities of the economy, representing 72% of the national gold for the oil and gas sector. Regarding the integration of renewable energies into our energy matrix, by the end of 2024, the Ecopetrol Group accumulated 611 megawatts of capacity from nonconventional renewable energy sources in operation, execution and construction, with a potential contribution of 1.6 terawatt hour per year, which corresponds to a [ 19% ] share in the group's energy metrics and 52% lower tariff when compared to nonregulated energy purchases. The combined effect of these efforts in transition energies, including the final investment decision and the start of construction of the [ Coral ] project at the Cartagena refinery, our plan for green hydrogen product using [ pen ] technology with an electrolysis capacity of 5-megawatt realized our position to achieve our goals. In summary, 2024 ends with 68% progress towards our all incorporated 900 megawatts of nonconventional renewable energy sources by 2025, 80% progress towards our target of 25 [ pets ] in energy efficiency by 2030 and a clear path in 2025 to escalate hydrogen production at an industrial level. As part of our commitment to promote a fair energy transition and contribute to sustainable territorial transformation, by the end of 2024 the Ecopetrol Group impacted more than 13,000 people with renewable energy solutions, supporting the consolidation of the largest energy community in the country located in [ Manauara ] and connected communities with renewable energy solution for biodiversity and peace. Additionally, we're connecting more than 25,000 families to natural gas service for a total amount of 69,000 since 2019. In 2025, we aim to execute 16 additional projects connecting 30,000 new families in more than 10 [ garments ] around the country. I will now pass the floor to Camilo, who will present our Transmission and Roads business line and the main financial milestones.
Alfonso Camilo Munoz
executiveThank you, David. In 2024, ISA achieved the highest net profit of its history driven by the entry into operation of new projects and by the recognition of the periodic tariff review for transmission companies in Brazil during the third quarter of the year. The 12% increase in revenues, 8% rise in EBITDA and 43% growth in net income compared to 2023 highlights our strong performance. Net income results were partly due to impairment figures of the year compared to 2023. In line with our strategic diversification goals by the year-end, ISA's individual results enhance its contribution to Ecopetrol group, accounting for 12% of consolidated revenues, 18% of EBITDA and 6% of net income. Consequently, the average return on equity measured by the ROI indicator reached 16.9% in 2024, up from 14.4% in 2023. ISA accelerated its investment execution in 2024, reaching COP 4.8 trillion, with a robust investment plan committed to achieve 2030 target of COP 26.1 trillion. The year's execution included the launch of 15 projects across various regions, such as the [ Milano ] project in Brazil, connection service to the [ substation Copa ] Colombia and [ Ruta al Loa ] project in Chile. By 2030, 5,600 kilometers of circuit to the grid and 296 kilometers of toll roads will be added through the development of 38 projects that are currently under construction. With investments of COP 3.8 trillion, ISA secured 10 tenders in power transmission, including notable projects such as [ Deruta Sur ] in Chile and the East and American Road in [ Panama ]. Finally, we will launch our ISA 2040 investment strategy on March 12, which will continue to strengthen our regional growth. Let's go to the next slide to detail the financial performance of the group. The strong financial results for 2024 were driven by our sustained efforts to achieve structural efficiencies, maintain profitability, uphold a strong cash position, exercise continued capital discipline and mitigate external impacts. The financial achievements for 2024 include proceed of 10.2% and EBITDA margin of 41% above annual targets with a significant contribution coming from the transmission and [ toll ] road segment. Optimization of our debt structure through strategic financing operations for around COP 22 trillion, pursuing an early refinancing plan and lowering interest expenses. In addition, the company kept its gross debt to EBITDA ratio under control in 2.2x and extended the average life of debt from 8.5 years in 2023 to 9.3 years in 2024. The highest free cash flow of our history, underpinned by a strong operational performance, the collection of the accounts receivable from the fuel price [ abilization ] fund, [indiscernible] accrue in 2023. Given these positive results, we proposed an attractive dividend payout of 58.9% with a dividend per share of COP 214. This proposal is aligned to our dividend policy and will be coordinated with our majority shareholder to achieve a [indiscernible] payment of the [ CapEx ] balance accumulated in 2024. Let's now look at our cash position and results. In 2024, the significant decline in the [ APAC ] receivable favor our cash position, which was adversely affected in 2023 in terms of working capital. The [ APEC ] balance closed at COP 7.6 trillion, the lowest level since 2021, thanks to the collection of COP 20.5 trillion during 2024, in addition to the increased gasoline prices and a slight rise in diesel prices. For 2025, we anticipate the [ APEC ] balance to range between COP 4 trillion and COP 6 trillion assuming current price scenario remains unchanged. There was COP 18.2 trillion cash position for the year-end on a consolidated basis will be primarily allocated to the 2025 investment plan as well as to operational and financial obligations. Our EBITDA reached COP [ 54.1 trillion ] in 2024 with an EBITDA margin of 41%, setting out one of the highest profitability levels of our history. It's important to mention that our EBITDA decreasing approximately COP 6.6 trillion compared to the previous year mainly due to the external factors impacting COP 7.8 trillion including a [ 41% ] impact from price decreases, consolidating the brand reference price and product and crude oil differentials, a 37% impact from the lower average FX rate of the year and an 18% of effect from inflation. Excluding these externalities, the adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately COP 62 trillion, representing 43% EBITDA [indiscernible]. Please go to the next slide. In 2024, we executed an ambitious and challenging investment plan, achieving USD 6.1 million in both organic and inorganic investments. Investments were primarily allocated in Colombia, 65% and internationally, 35%, mainly in the U.S. Permian Basin and Brazil. Organic investments in the hydrocarbon segment accounted for 68% of the group's total investments with significant projects in [ Calasu ], Chichimene, [ Acacia ] and the Permian drilling campaign, [ 20% ] of investments were allocated to ISA, its enhanced progress made in 38 projects in their construction by itself and its subsidiaries. Additionally, commercial operations commenced in 15 power transmission products, improvements were made to the ISA energy grid in Brazil and [ the Ruta logic ] in Chile was initiated. The Energy Transition business segment executed 13% of the group's total investments, focusing on the gas supply chain in basins such as Permian, offshore [ Tina Block ] and [ Piemont ] as well as renewable energy projects like the [ juanaSalareco ] Park and the [ Quifa solar ] farm. Finally, $239 million were allocated to inorganic investments to acquire 45% of the Repsol's [indiscernible] in the CPO-09 block and for the acquisition of [ Alelo ], Colombian's noncontrolling interest Bioscience. Now [indiscernible] our 2025 investment plan. For 2025, the investment plan aims at sustained growth control costs and ensure profitability for our shareholders while strengthening our traditional business. We plan to invest between COP 24 trillion and COP 28 trillion with 60% allocated to energy security. This includes enhancing our crude oil production, securing refining [ triplet ] and meeting domestic fuel demand with our own products. The remainder, 40% of our investments will be allocated towards the energy transition, including sustainability [indiscernible] and electricity transmission and toll roads. The investment plan is based on an average [ Brent base ] scenario of USD 73 per barrel. It aims to preserve competitive returns with 29% EBITDA margin and achieve efficiencies exceeding COP 4 trillion. Such plan does not account for the export taxes and a [ stand ] tax insured by Colombia's internal promotion degree in February 2025. Nevertheless, we do not anticipate significant impacts on its execution. Finally, I would like to discuss the main challenges we identified this year and outline how our finance team plans to address them, like our [indiscernible] we will remain focused on reversing the trend at cost. With this, we set a lifting cost target ranging from $12 to $13 per barrel for the whole year, aiming to reach the lower end of the range. Additionally, our debt management strategy will focus on addressing cash needs that may arise from inorganic opportunities and continuing to reduce financial costs. To optimize our return on capital employee profitability, we will focus on managing our assets and the turnover of our portfolio. Finally, we continue taking action to support the dynamism of our stock and create value for our shareholders. Recently, we announced 2 key initiatives: a temporary decrease in [ ADR ] conversion costs and the appointment of a market [ maker ] for our local stock. I now turn the floor over to the President for his closing remarks.
Ricardo Barragan
executiveThank you, Camilo. The [ sabatory ] results of 2024 allow us to continue generating value and profitability in 2025 based on a strict capital discipline and cash [ rotation ] criteria. For the year, operational and financial goals we had set respond to the need to keep enhancing the organic pollution of hydrocarbons, reserved in [indiscernible], availability and reliability across our infrastructure. Increased our efforts related to efficiencies and decarbonization while consolidating the Energy Transition business line, maintain our leadership in energy transmission in the region. We recognize the challenges ahead, so our efforts will focus mainly on enhancing [ fracable ] operations to our risk contingencies and preserved continuity. Enabling cost efficiency alternatives that allow us to maintain our competitiveness. I thank all the employees of the Ecopetrol Group for their hard work in 2024 and encourage them to keep moving forward in 2025. Thank you all for participating in this conference call. I now open the floor to the question and answer session.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Thank you. [indiscernible] has a question. [indiscernible], you can ask.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me? Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. Very quickly 3 questions. The first is, I'd like to understand a little bit about the impairment terms of the refining segment because one of the reasons to that reversion is that the difference between prices and margins were adjusted to the appetite. So I'd like to understate that those assumptions as you're using, so that you could have that value of these operations. The first question is that. The second has to do with the profitability estimating an EBITDA margin for 2025, 39%. That just mean that you're expecting a reduction in EBITDA margin because this year, we had a -- 2024 be increasing. So I'd like to understand a little bit why? Do you see that reduction in the profits? And that should be a margin that we should hope to be stable in the medium term and I'm surprised because this year, we have a lower because we have lower prices in terms of the price of oil and rate of exchange. So I'd like to understand why they are still impacting a period in this margin? And lastly, the third question has to do with thet -- recently at the end of the [indiscernible] the sales per [ remote ] generation through a regulation. I'd like to know whether that is really how likely the payment of the balance we made using the assets from [indiscernible]. And in addition, whether it is true that they made an offer for the project where the CapEx that you are mentioning are also including these -- the purchasers in [indiscernible]. Those are my 3 questions there.
Alfonso Camilo Munoz
executive[Interpreted] Good morning Katherine this is Camilo Barco. Thank you for questions. My microphone was also -- you couldn't hear us. So I'd like to start by the question about the impairment, which shown in the last quarter of 2024. And this is something that we do according to generally accepted by technology, which is [ Fermacell ], which is based on the valuation through this accounted cash flows for the short, medium and long terms. In that respect, there is really perhaps 3 or 4 factors that affect this adjustment that we can -- or this recovery that we can see in the statement of results for the previous year. First of all, I'd like to mention the [indiscernible] that we used to project the prices. They are companies -- international companies, long-standing companies that produce this type of information. And we use that information to do our impairment exercise basically, but [indiscernible] plants and [indiscernible]. And these are [ cures ] and areas and projections, but the ones that we use in our valuation. In those [ ores ], we see that there will be a recovery of the price -- differential prices for the products which are used for the medium and the long term. That would be one of [indiscernible]. Second one has to with the local good availability for our refineries, which allows us to optimize the [indiscernible] the input and the [ crews ] that are process they're in. Thirdly, there's a component it has to do with the discount rate and the discount rate that we're used had some small adjustments in terms of including some risk factors. And when we add the projections, the local component the adjustments for the rates we have positive payment this reflects a recovery of approximately [ 0.9 billion ] last quarter for 2024. I hope that this -- I have answered your question about [ impairment ]. The second question about the EBITDA margin we are projecting for the next year and EBITDA margin of around 29% -- 39%, 39%. That EBITDA margin, as you could see, is the result of applying price projection for this year. And [indiscernible] is less than we had for 2024. This year, where we're seeing with [ Brent ] price of [ $73 ] per barrel, lower than what we used for the previous year, which was around $80 per barrel. This is an important effect. However, it's time to repeat our firm commitment to the efficiencies for this year. We have an efficiency plan, which is in the COP 4 trillion, close to COP 4.5 trillion which enables to offset a good measure of the behavior of external [indiscernible]. This is the [indiscernible] margin predicted based on prices and the behavior of what we expect for the price of [ Brent ] and our refined products for this year 2025. I give this out to the President to answer the issue about [ remote cell ] generation and the possible acquisition of renewable generation assets.
Ricardo Barragan
executive[Interpreted] Katherine good morning, this is Ricardo Roa. The third question has to with whether we -- we're speaking about the possibility of buying assets [indiscernible] to come [indiscernible] the cost from the Ecopetrol to the government to at the end of 2024. Those alternatives have been led, assessed in conversations with [indiscernible] of the treasury. The -- we have [indiscernible] proper regulations to allow Ecopetrol to acquire this type of assets, after any evaluation of the assets is not so relevant. Well, the balance of this COP 7.6 trillion that we entered at the [indiscernible] at the end of 2025. However, looking at the regulations if there were the appropriate [indiscernible] apply that [ remote ] generation to us [indiscernible] is like that, we will continue to assess them right now in touch with the technical [indiscernible] in the initial finance. We have an agenda for the repayment of [indiscernible] as we get the repayment of the dividends to the nation about the [ Impac ] project, the parties as Ecopetrol [indiscernible], we have been working to perfect an agreement for this transaction. Purchasing [indiscernible] the project in [ Bahia ]. If we make the agreement under a confidential basis will carry out the appropriate procedures and the [indiscernible] the process, we would publish any details about your communication -- on the communication channels.
Operator
operatorWe are continuing the call in Spanish. Mr. [indiscernible]
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Thank you, and good morning, everybody. I'd like to mention 2 issues. The operations of Ecopetrol in the Permian in the U.S. And I don't know whether you can give us more details about the extension agreement signed with Oxy in Midland Basin, especially because a day after that, the day after that Ecopetrol [indiscernible] cancel that contract. Are you thinking about canceling the contract that has already been signed? First [indiscernible]. The second thing is what does the extension include how many acres? And what is the potential that you see for these acres that are intermittent in terms of total locations for drilling to understand what is the additional potential that you might look at in the Midland especially? That would be a [indiscernible]. And my second and last is to kind of your opinion about the potential of not conventional oil and gas in Colombia. Is that an opportunity? Or is that something that you're not considering right now? And if you're not, I'd like to know what are the reasons why not go after these opportunities. in Colombia? These are my 2 questions.
Ricardo Barragan
executive[Interpreted] Thank you, Daniel, Ricardo Roa. First of all, I'd like to tell you that -- about the impairment project, I'll give the floor to [ Julian ] the Vice President of [indiscernible] new business to tell you about the details of this extension of the agreement with Oxy for extending the [indiscernible] of the assets in the middle basin. Let me let talk about the second part, which is the -- after the day of the second -- after the signature was signed, the President reporting to the Board of Directors. I ask the Board of Directors to make the technical and economic analysis required to going to get out of that. That's what we do constantly, we do valuation and assessment [indiscernible] assets not only in the U.S. but also in our geographies around the world where we have agreements.So we are very respectful of the times, the terms the times of the agreements that we signed with our allies. And in that respect, we continue to make our decisions with the capital discipline criteria that you know. According to which we decided to extend that agreement with the [indiscernible] in the permian basin. The second question about the nonconventionals. Is it clear that in the country, the current government policy is rigorous with respect to demanding that we [indiscernible] for the time -- the activity of these explorations and the contract than we had a [indiscernible] have been suspended or closed properly without leaving any environmental economic liability spending with the contractors then we're doing our [ isolations ] as long as we still have regulations or resolution scenarios, the perimeters activity in the country, very good [indiscernible] focusing his attention to exploring [indiscernible] forward -- looking for petroleum gas with the contracts that we have and in the areas where we're also [indiscernible] to be able to place molecules and crude in the system. That's what we are doing. And that within that framework, we are carrying out these projects. And we're making significant investments. I'll give the floor to [ Julian ] to tell you about the details of the station of different joint venture for Oxy.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you, [indiscernible]. Good morning to [indiscernible] Vice President of Strategy and New Business. We with us as [indiscernible] mentioned, we had an agreement to extend the activity plan and I want to emphasize that point because the ownership of the acreage doesn't change. The ownership of protection doesn't change what we extended for the activity by Oxy as an operator within the contract of the joint venture. You must remember that our entry [indiscernible] [ '19 ], we purchased 49% [indiscernible] we have close to 95,000 acres in Midland [indiscernible] [ 20,000 ] acres in Delaware, in that area, which is been on to development right now. So this is a good additional area, only includes an extension of the plan in which [indiscernible] to develop around 90 wells during 2025, similar figures to what we had for 2024. This is some what I can tell you about the agreement. There are so much which are confidential between the parties. But this made it beneficial scenario for Oxy and Ecopetrol in which both parties were able to extend that activity and in the to open to future extensions if either other parties, [indiscernible] and appropriate, and we will discuss it separately [indiscernible]. I'd like to also add that, as we have said, we included our resource last year 22 million barrels that will enable us to [indiscernible], we have a participation the future investments, which is the agreement we're going to be reviewing on this all the time. It is possible that we might have constant extensions to this agreement.
Operator
operatorThe next question is in English. Mr. [indiscernible].
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Foreign Language]
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Let me talk to the first question, which I do not agree with the fact that the -- the reason why our shares performance in Ecopetrol in the stock market are reacting due to the expectations of a new administration. The reality is that the figures, the numbers of the results that we've seen and mentioning the close, the expansion of the contract with [ Oxi ] in Permian, the acquisition of 45% of the Ecopetrol Group that we had in Repsol in CPO-09, the replacement of reserves out of 104%, those are advancements. So all advances in the actual material -- advances of transition that we [indiscernible] to have in the middle of next year. We have the largest, highest technology plant in Latin America for green hydrogen, and we [indiscernible] include the incorporation of new energies or renewable users. This is being read properly by the market and the stockholders, and that is the explanation for the improved performance of the shares in the stock market. About the expectations for the new administration for this sector, we'll have to wait until the next administration [indiscernible] in this administration. Ecopetrol has been very deeply articulated with the understanding and the issue of standards of regulations that allow us to make our role more flexible in supplying the energy for fuels in the country. In gas, there's [ flexibilization ] that allows us to commercialize volumes at any time, we can import [indiscernible] gas and sellers in the market. We don't have a [indiscernible], we're working on the rates for invention conversion to assets for transportation of crude or gas -- this is been advances we had in the [indiscernible] with the administration and with the institution.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] [indiscernible] Thank you for your question. This is [ Julius Cadaver], Vice President of Commercial and Marketing Insurance. About the prices of gas and diesel, I can tell you with [indiscernible]. First of all, let me tell you that the prices are regulated and defined in Colombia by the National Government. Ecopetrol, we have the responsibility of implementing them. About the prices where the [indiscernible] international price. I can tell you that we are indexed to the international indicators. We maintain a strategy of diversifying orients and destinations. Specifically I can tell you that right now, the regulated price of the gasoline is higher than the import parity. This is below because that we can tell at the end, we give in regard to the [ $76 ] of income and the parent price was $99 per barrel.
Operator
operator[Foreign Language] [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from [ Vitor Molave ]. You can ask your question.
Unknown Analyst
analystGood morning, [ Victor Modani ] from UBS. I have 2 questions on my side. [indiscernible] lifting cost during 2024 remain above levels seen in previous years despite the cost efficiencies achieved. What's your explanation for the companies lifting cost going forward beyond the [indiscernible] per barrel target for 2025? Could longer-term cost decrease actual levels seen previously? And second, on the topic of Ecopetrol's natural gas and [indiscernible] capacity. Could you provide more details on potential volume and value of future project under discussion? [indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Good morning. Thank you for your question. For 2025, we are looking at the inflection point in terms of the [indiscernible] cost. You've seen an increase in the cost for 2025, we expect to be close to what we saw in 2024. We're working on the efficiencies to be able to -- in the future to be able to lower the cost. But for [ 2024 ], specifically, we do not expect any increases compared to 2024. About regasification, I guess [indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] While David answers talking about the reclassification of gas projects. I'd like to add to the [indiscernible] question about [indiscernible]. As you mentioned in the presentation, one of our agilities was to contain the increase in the cost reduction. In that respect, we -- for this year, we could have between $12 and $13 per barrel on the other well. During the implementation of the efficiency [indiscernible] with the -- more than COP 4.3 trillion in efficiencies. We hope that the total cost would be in the lower cost of $12, not only by controlling the [indiscernible] provision somewhat what we saw compared to 2024.
David Alfredo Riaño Alarcón
executive[Interpreted] Good morning. This is David Riaño, Vice President of Transition Energy. During the past year, we assess several alternatives to import gas into the country, both in the Atlantic and the Pacific Coast. And as a result of that process, we identify the best alternatives for the Ecopetrol Group, which meets the capital discipline criteria which would allow us to put cash into the market to meet the demand that we expect for the next few years. Specifically, these are 2 projects that we've identified, one in the Pacific coast with a capacity of reclassification of [ 60 million ] cubic feet per day. This is a project in which projects acquires a gratification service and therefore, the third party does all the investment, makes all the logistics activities for receivable storage reclassification. We are processing that reclassification plan. And we -- this is going to be through OpEx and Ecopetrol doesn't need a CapEx investments. The other project is our own project, in the north part of the country in the Caribbean in the [indiscernible] platform, which is an asset owned by the group using existing infrastructure that will also take cash to the transportation system for LPG and the one that leads to the [ Permian ] gas [indiscernible], we can bring approximately 200 million cubic feet per day of reclassified gas. In this case, Ecopetrol would make some facilities in [indiscernible] platform and the reclassification [indiscernible] would be through [indiscernible] reclassification service will be carried out by third party. This is under analysis, especially in terms of the environmental issues. As soon as we have more information, we'll be publishing it.
Operator
operator[indiscernible] from Citibank.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Good morning, everybody. Thank you for my time, two questions. Why can we expect after the acquisition of CPO-09 in terms of development now that you have 100% of the working interest [indiscernible] we expect acceleration in the development plan for the field and the second one is whether the payout that you define for 2025 is somewhat limited by the M&A expectations with the company mentioned or you mentioned the assets there. So [indiscernible], I think is rolled out. But are you considering any other any other potential acquisitions and could all the be in the generation sector? Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] The acquisition of the participation we had [indiscernible] is one of the major [indiscernible] for Ecopetrol last year because in addition to the reserves we have, [indiscernible] they want to include 32 million with the acquisition. We really begin to see what we can with this additional block with [ Chichimene ] and Castilla. So we're going to be able to have another 8 million barrels a day with this field. And I want to expand on [indiscernible], which is the [indiscernible] field [indiscernible] and the continuation of the Chichimene field, where Ecopetrol has made major investments in development. We're getting high recoveries, thanks to air and water injection that those lessons that we learned will be used for the [indiscernible]. In addition, and we have to production -- was in production, which are in addition to [indiscernible] COP-09. This is an extension of the Castilla [indiscernible] and all the investment made by the recognition of capital in Castilla as move [indiscernible] this mark. We have major synergies in development and operation costs by having 100% interest in this entire field. An example is the development of [indiscernible] which is -- we see that as a connection of these 2 wells, [indiscernible] connect to the Castilla [indiscernible]. This would be rather increasing development costs. This acquisition in the future, we have the potential to buy an additional 50 million barrels in this market, which represents a large number of barrels for Ecopetrol. Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] And the second question is to the payout that we've and made for the distribution of dividends as [indiscernible], I like to talk to, yes, 3 different factors in which the propose was [indiscernible] the distribution that is put to the assembly. The first is dividend policy has been adapted by the Board of Directors, which we declared that in the [indiscernible], and it says that the policy part of the distribution of between 20 -- between 40% and 60% of available profit for the share -- for the stock. This is the first framework for conversation. The second one has to do obviously to the availability of cash and the group's liquidity, as we saw last year, we had a solid position [indiscernible] COP 18 trillion and the third has to do with the investment as we pushed for 2025 as part of the 3-year plan. For investments is an ambitious plan, which is over $6.7 million. By combining these factors, we find that the dividend that is [indiscernible] with 3 elements. And for investments, 70% of the total will be used to for hydrocarbons, including gas as a transition fuel 30% remaining for transitional energies, transmission and roads. And in general about the acquisitions or inorganic buys as part of our ongoing job, we're constantly evaluating different business opportunities in different sectors. In addition to the opportunity that we mentioned and that the market is aware of in terms of renewable energy, we also exploring a number of opportunities in different segments and lines of business.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] One last question. Could we expect the payment of the stabilization fund payments will continue with the same dynamics that we saw in 2024, which is amortization over 12 months of the balance remaining balance, which is decreasing, but is that a reasonable assumption for our mines?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Yes, Andres. I'd like to point out the efforts that national government has made even in the midst of this [indiscernible] situation that we have, the national government has been complying with the dates, in the amounts that established for paying the operations. We had some payments for [indiscernible] and the balance for 2024 is COP [ 7.6 ]billion and to be included in your respective miles this year, we have forecast also regular payments, required for payments for over the year. These are being reviewed the way payment might change according to some request on the Ministry of Finance, but working based on regular quarterly payments of similar amount maybe higher than the first quarter. We're talking about COP [ 2.3 trillion ] and then the second one would be a similar amount. And for the second semester 1 or 2 additional payments for the remaining balance of COP 3.5 billion, approximately. So [indiscernible] yes, we can foresee that the payments will be gone. We continue -- the government has committed to making their payments on time. And we are reviewing and agreeing the way manner of payments which [indiscernible] the Ministry of the Treasury according to the inflow -- cash inflows and our bond requirements in Ecopetrol.
Operator
operatorMr. [indiscernible] you may ask your question.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Thank you, good morning. I have 3 questions. The first one is about the gas facility [indiscernible] specific. How are you going to transport that gas from the port to the nearest gas line, LPG or some of those companies that are in the West also known. Is that true overlanders that do you have [indiscernible] or somebody yesterday intended to the connection between the port [indiscernible]. The second question is can you tell us how much were the contributions of the payments compare to the [indiscernible] in 2024. What is expected for 2025? And please, can you itemize the taxes, how much is for income tax and what is the others? And the last question is [indiscernible] present mentioned earlier about the green hydrogen plant. I'd like to know whether you have identified the sources of generation and water that you would start used to produce the hydrogen with those 800,000 total per year, whether that -- what is that a production is all gone to refinement? Or is it simply a surplus that are going to be sold somewhere else?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] [indiscernible] of Transition Energies. As far as the reclassification [indiscernible] in the Pacific, as we mentioned earlier, this is [indiscernible] Ecopetrol requires the right to service rigs indication, which is going to be provided by a third party. And that third party is going to receive the materials storage, transported over land through as their energy state and regasified and delivered to the National Transportation System in [indiscernible]. This would be a gasline from [indiscernible], which is the LPG. In fact, the rereservation plan in [ Boga ] is next to current line for the transportation line. About the second question about the contribution to the country to the nation [indiscernible] [ 84 ], we had more than COP [ 40 billion ] of which from dividends we paid 11 [indiscernible]. For 2025, we expect to pay -- expectations of the price behavior and total revenue approximately COP 35 trillion, we proposed [indiscernible] [ COP 7.8 billion ] for the nation. In royalties and taxes more than [indiscernible] basis. I'm sorry, the microphone has an echo and it's coming and going. [indiscernible] of Energy Transition. About your third question about the green hydrogen plant that we are building the Cartagena refinery, we must say the debt reduction that we expect [ 800 tonnes ] per year of green hydrogen will be totally used by refinery. So given that amount of hydrogen is the total hydrogen [indiscernible] process right now. This is based on the national [indiscernible]. This is a green hydrogen, so this green hydrogen will be part of the meeting those requirements for the current refinery. And therefore, we don't have any insurance [indiscernible]. We expect that the [indiscernible] renewable energy to meet the hydrogen plant. Thank you.
Operator
operator[indiscernible]. Mr [indiscernible] you may ask your questions.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] Thank you for the call. I have some questions [indiscernible] to know with EBITDA margin [indiscernible] 2025. [indiscernible] you said before, we have a bad connection [indiscernible] we see decrease those margins because the long-term margin that we usually be working with [indiscernible]. The second question is has to do with what is the probability of distribution on the [indiscernible] locational reserves, that we submitted without the need of acquiring new debt? And the last question is about in the [indiscernible]. Originally, there was a [indiscernible] ISA were as part of that processes. And we can tell us a little bit about possible clients or economic consequences [indiscernible] and whether and you see that as a need to make additional investments in Chile, even as an opportunity to remove transmission in this country.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you very much. This is [indiscernible], I start by the EBITDA margin. We mentioned that [indiscernible] should do what we're looking about is basically you have [indiscernible] which we work our nation by 2025. The major difference here is [indiscernible] [ $73,000 ] per barrel [indiscernible] this year. And in addition to that, we see that there's in an increase in the prices of [indiscernible] and for [ 2023 ] we're talking about [ 19,000 ] margin for 2024 we had a margin closer to [ 19,000 ] per barrel. So this difference in this decrease both in the good and refined product differentials is to project some lower prices for this 2025 which have relative impacting in terms of generating the EBITDA. We're changing to margin of [indiscernible] [ 79 million ] margin -- EBITDA margin of [ 39% ] for this 2025. Well, about the distribution of [ cures ] reserve as we saw a previous question. These are various factors that we ready to submit the subject to the Board of Directors. The liquidity and availability of cash and the investment plans have seen from the 2025, it's a challenging both because of the organic investments. And due to the inorganic investments. We've [indiscernible] of the year or we see that would be in the near future. I like to say that as this operational reserve is an accounting reserve. It doesn't have real cash award to make an usual distribution of sign we would have to use financing. We have not seen any extraordinary dividends or distribution of [indiscernible] reserves, more available cash and the investment cash we have foreseen for 2025 that is already ambitious in which it will require some sort of financing associated to the inorganic component. The financial plan for 2025 is organic component. And without additional debt, for the new purchases was being saw additional or refinancing and that [indiscernible] the possibility of the distributing more revenues. About the question [indiscernible] us details about that. [indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you for your question. [indiscernible] you some context the ISA business in [indiscernible] Chile platform or Power Transmission [indiscernible] Chile. This is [indiscernible] in Chile this is 4% of the EBITDA [indiscernible] of the company, [indiscernible] we have [indiscernible] a line, which [indiscernible] of [ 22,000 ] volts in that we were transporting [ 100 ] megawatts in total when [indiscernible] they came out, were out of the circuit. It was unavailable of the circuit now from the time immediately remobilize all the capabilities for coordination, all the teams to include the availability of that line, which was done [indiscernible] that was about 44 minutes after the blackout and it was also available to [indiscernible] a service. We're still investigating the reasons for that, it was the protections went off unscheduled and that kind of several circuits, we've been investigating. We have been looking at the investigations, the authorities providing all the information they require to complete this investigation successfully only when we complete the investigation we can define the level of responsibility and the consequences for that we had. With respect to the fines right now, it doesn't raise the [indiscernible] availability of the company. There was another comment about the well opportunities. We have 2 projects under development the 1 with the connection project [indiscernible], which was very energy transmission in that country. And that the situation is going to lead us to require more support and more permits so that those lines can start operating at Chile on like Colombia and Peru, which are very highly connected countries. Chile is very long and very radial and needs more and more lines to install more lines.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo I just have one question here from my side. I just wanted to ask up the developments with regards to macro exploration project with Shell. Do we expect any sort of final investment decision in the coming months? And if so, what can we expect in terms of sizing for the project in [indiscernible].
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We've been working with our partner, Shell to complete this development. We expect to have a final decision of investment during the first quarter of this year. We'll give you some updates on the expectations in the future. This is something we see available.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[Interpreted] What are your growth expectations in organic for the company? And I use [indiscernible] with the participations will we have more investment, more assets due to the profits.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you for the question. We have [indiscernible] an organic growth plan, which is significant for the 2025, 2030 [indiscernible] approximately [ $7 billion ] in various countries where we have a presence in energy and roads especially in energy, it is the most significant with 80% -- 84% of these investments, which are 50% in Brazil and the rest is in Colombia, Peru and Chile. This enables us to keep our growth strategy for our business. In terms of operations growth in Brazil, we have not defined any operations in terms of merging these 2 businesses, we have a share control [indiscernible], of which their excellent project would an appropriate profit levels and keep -- they move their growth [indiscernible] with growth projects in both.
Operator
operatorThank you for the time being. There are no more questions. We'll then read the questions from the chat. What metric you should measure the downstream advances in 2025?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We have a very structured plan for improve our downstream segment profitability to maintain high operating availability. We do some maintenance minutes plans -- we intend to get the throughput of the refinery with Colombian crude. And that was we continue with our investments in downstream. Another one of our purposes is to have a larger amount of fuel. We have modifications in the sources in [ Maranta ] for the future. We also have to improve the quantity and improve the margin in areas such as fuels and [indiscernible] in petrochemical -- another factor we are monitoring is also cost reduction. This is part of our efficiency program and also reducing the cost of the refining [indiscernible] would be another target. About the second question about the regasification project in the Pacific. As we said earlier, [indiscernible] purchases of the [ rectification ] rights and the third-party makes the investments, the operation and maintenance of the infrastructure to provide the regasification. That is why we don't have an investment or CapEx to be implemented by Ecopetrol. As for the reclassification project in [ Gorilla ] in the [ Chispa ] platform, in that case, Ecopetrol leads a project because it's going to be in its facilities, the investments that we would have to make would be in the pumping system of [indiscernible] which is not very high with the information we have available to be between $50 million and $100 million because the service provided by [indiscernible] floating unit for storage and classification would be not to pay back to the third party, which [indiscernible] will third party as is usual in this type of activity, we pay that through OpEx rate. As far as times the diversification in Pacific in the Pacific would be I expect to be operative in the second quarter of 2026, and reclassification in the Caribbean in the [indiscernible] platform would depends on some clarifications that were consulting with the environmental authorities optimistically, will start operation in 2027.
Operator
operatorWhat are the financing needs? And what do we need [indiscernible] capital maintenance [indiscernible] capital markets to get some debt in 2025?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] This goes to [indiscernible] and basically there are several points. First of all, we mentioned in the previous question, the fact that our the financing plan for organic financing will not require any additional financing. We should also say that during the first part of the year, we are certain that for the rest of the year, we will accelerate our inorganic investment plan. About these inorganic investments, we should clarify that it will be needed necessary to get some financing operations. And for this year, we'll have some need and some organizations that we have been gotten from the Board of Directors for financing during [ 2019 ], which allows to have [indiscernible] structuring and a temporary debt for [indiscernible]. In addition to the financing operations to support our inorganic investment plan. You should keep in mind that we are constantly monitoring the market. And as we see the volatility of this period, we find better funding of any financing conditions, and we will be able to use them when we find them. So the capital market, local capital market and the international capital market will always be a very interesting financing alternative for the group. We might have a long more term maturities and at certain times or does get some advantages that are convenient for our financing costs. So both in the capital markets and the banks or alternatives that are constantly evaluating and analyzing.
Operator
operatorHow big is the impact to the tanks on crude and exports? And how much is the impact of the deterioration in the differential to the sale of [indiscernible]?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We can have a total impact of approximately [ $50 ] million per month, which will be total [indiscernible] he's making [ COP 50,000 billion ] a year, our total impact for the approximately of COP 6 billion. And we're also looking and with the as of the tax [indiscernible] tax, which is also pursuing that degree -- about the tax, we have an estimate of about [ COP 500,000 ], which has COP 1.2 billion a total impact on the results for 2025.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] [indiscernible] Vice President of Commercial & Marketing. In 2024, we had new reference from [indiscernible] '24. For 2025, we started very strong, the distributions were distributed and look at the figures yesterday and the comp since [indiscernible]. I can report that we have a strengthening improvement of 35% in the differential Castilla, 36% in [ APL ] and [ Mariz ],19% our crude for the time being, geopolitical [indiscernible] and things in Venezuela and the U.S., we are seeing our best moment -- we're seeing that in our -- they're going to be moving apparently. I know that you might require -- you might refer to the price [indiscernible] in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 2024. You see that there is the partial weakness, but part of what we see that 2023, 2024 where we improved by $2 on the average that differential. This is what I can tell you about it, and the trend is totally opposite. Thank you.
Operator
operatorAnd the [indiscernible] is live with the question.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is a follow-up on the explanation you gave with respect to [indiscernible] recovery on downstream. So what is the range of price differentials from the EBITDA margin? You're expecting for this segment? Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] The price outlook we've seen we have some differentials for '25, '26 are very similar to what we've seen in 2024. However, in the medium, long term -- we have stable demand or slightly lower. Makes the combination which is less availability and consistent demand for the medium and long term. And well, stabilized prices of diesel, gasoline and others.
Operator
operatorIt's a question regarding the reply from the previous in Pacific East. If Ecopetrol is not going to is hiring a third party for -- into the development that [indiscernible] guarantee an appropriate return on its investments. So I'd like to understand what sort of contract are you writing with Ecopetrol, especially because the outlook in terms of gas reserves for the country it's not very positive for the short term, but we are supposed to have the development of all the fields is very positive. So I understand a bit of what -- how can you make a contract that is going to be for a long term with the expectation that we're going to have a significant increase in the gas reserves after those fields are able to reduce and make a contribution of the local reserves. Can you tell me about that? What is the rationale and the type of contract that we be carrying out with a third party?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you for the question. The Executive Vice President of Energy for Transition. The 2 initiatives for regasification that I've mentioned part of a alternative options and which is make these sources of gas available to the company, while we get the offshore level, all these initiatives, Pacific and the Caribbean, those others that they were [indiscernible] are part of providing net gas while the offshore comes in base on that all the contracts in this case with the Pacific, for example, for the regasification service are set up so the need the time for the offshore gas entry. [indiscernible] in regasification in the gas services. This means that Ecopetrol should buy the molecule that is going -- coming from the international market, use term contracts, which ensure the quantity of the gas that you need to [indiscernible], the [ regasified ] only [indiscernible] service and [indiscernible] group have to put the molecule at the regasification plant. And then after that is regasified and placed in the transportation system we commercialize it through the national customers.
Operator
operator[indiscernible] which will be paying for availability [indiscernible] or are you going to pay some fixed amount for the availability of the regasification plant?
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] The regasification service and in any other market where energy is important, it's a fixed fee for the gasification service, which obviously enhanced the obligation by the we don't live the provider to guarantee some reliabilities and some quality of the reclassification service for the year, which is at par with the -- what is efficient for this time, then you have to bring the gas or reclassification those are term contracts that the group has to make to buy the market, which is a different type of transaction. We should mention that the higher source to the imported gas is not a [ ragification ] service. It's the molecule the reclassification plant that is a material component in a transaction of this type. The [ regasification ] services are -- don't have so much weight in the asset in total [indiscernible] when it is placed into the national market.
Operator
operatorNo further questions. Now the pleasure [indiscernible] for a final message.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] Thank you all for your attendance. We wish you -- we hope that we have answered all your questions and concerns about the economic, financial and Ecopetrol's performance for this year. We're committed to our country, our stakeholders and shareholders to and continue to be the major company in all Colombians and the guarantee of the -- guarantee of fuel security for the country. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorThank you, everyone. This ends our results of our conference for the fourth quarter 2024. Thank you for your participation. You can disconnect now. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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