Elders Limited (ELD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 21, 2024

Australian Securities Exchange AU Consumer Staples Food Products earnings 29 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Elders Limited HY '24 Results Retail Investor Briefing. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mark Allison, Managing Director and CEO.

Mark Allison

executive
#2

Thank you very much, and welcome, everyone, to the Retail Briefing. So following feedback last year with our retail briefing, we've taken a few points on board. And we've decided to do this year as a fireside chat with Sarah asking questions of Paul and myself to begin with, and then we'll open up the session for questions from the audience. So thank you once again for coming along and look forward to a good session, and I'll hand over to Sarah.

Unknown Executive

executive
#3

Good evening, everyone. Welcome and also welcome to Mark and Paul. Okay, I'll start. Mark, Elders recorded a reduction in lost time injuries in the first half of FY '24. Can you provide an overview of safety initiatives this year and why safety is so important in Elders?

Mark Allison

executive
#4

Yes, certainly. So I think the journey for Elders on safety, on a refreshed focus probably goes back to the first Eight Point Plan. And in the first Eight Point Plan at that stage, so that would have been almost 10 years ago, we had 34 lost time injuries in the business. And we were determined to reset that and make sure that everyone at Elders went home in a safe and sound manner. So we put a bunch of initiatives in place. And I think the journey has been a long and solid journey. The -- on the process all the way through to the first half this year of 1 lost time injury, but it does come up in all of our staff surveys as the most important thing at Elders is safety. And I think going back to the original Eight Point Plan, one of the key premises of the safety focus, apart from obviously caring for all of our people was that a safe business is always a well-run business and a profitable business. So our feeling is that it's win-win-win around the -- all of the spectrum of stakeholders, with our people coming home safely, with the team being committed to each other, with our shareholders and suppliers and customers also getting the benefit. So it's a really important journey, and I think well and truly embedded. One of the nuances of the safety culture and particularly with our strategy around bolt-on acquisitions, is that when new businesses join Elders, we do have to go through that process of kind of reaffirming the safety culture, the really basic important reasons of wanting to look after your teammates, wanting to look after your customers and making sure that everyone gets home at night safely.

Unknown Executive

executive
#5

Thank you, Mark. Paul, the first half presented some challenges for Australian agriculture. Can you describe these challenges and how conditions improved throughout the second quarter, especially livestock prices?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#6

Yes, certainly, Sarah. And I might talk to Slide 16 of the Investor Presentation for this one. But certainly, I'd describe it as 2 very distinct quarters comprising the first half. This slide, I think, tells the story quite well. But as we started the first quarter, we had a forecast of very hot and dry conditions associated with the El Nio climate driver. And what that did was delay the summer cropping region in dry land areas and it also put significant downward pressure on livestock prices. So a couple of other slides in the pack that speak to that. And what that did was put downward pressure on client sentiment as well. And so we saw certainly a significant pressure in terms of animal health sales and certainly downward pressure on the agency services in there. The chart out to the right provides a non-financial indicator of pressure from Q1 to Q2. And so you can see the pressure generally across all products in Q1. What happened in December, we saw widespread rainfall down the East Coast and through much of Southern Australia as well. That precipitated a turnaround in livestock prices in the second quarter and the sentiment, more broadly. And you can see all but retail turned around in the second quarter. Retail was a little different in terms of basing the substantially lower crop protection and fertilizer prices against prior corresponding period. So whilst the summer crop turned out okay, the retail business continued to suffer headwinds through the second quarter. But in general terms, a very, very soft quarter in Q1 and a pleasing recovery in Q2.

Unknown Executive

executive
#7

Thank you. Mark, FY '24 has been a busy year for acquisitions. Can you provide an overview of activity this year and where the focus has been from a product perspective?

Mark Allison

executive
#8

Yes. So I think a really good question because the way we've run Elders from the beginning of the Eight Point Plan period has been around having a portfolio of different products and services and having a nice balance, which gives us that diversification at that level and ensuring that we keep the balance on track. The approach we've taken to bolt-on acquisitions is that we have a fairly standard template to preserve our return on capital for our shareholders. And the template is that we pay 3x to 5x EBITDA of the business. And it may go above that, if it's a bigger EBIT, if it's $6 million, $7 million, $8 million, $9 million, $10 million EBIT. But we stick in that range. So we -- just at a high level, get the return on capital that we need. We have normalized working capital, 50% payment on completion, 25-year 1, 25-year 2. So we're able to keep the vendors in the business. And then at the end of that, we take decisions on whether we rebrand the business or whether we leave it as it is. So we call it light touch, but we're actually quite involved from a safety values and financial transparency viewpoint. And clearly, we're providing capital. An interesting stat around that is that something close to 90% of our vendors stay at Elders after the earnout period. So clearly, they feel that the culture and the flow of the business fits them as well. In terms of this year, we completed -- at half year, we completed 10 acquisitions. And given that we bought AIRR and Titan a few years ago, which balanced the portfolio more towards a rural products portfolio, we've been targeting real estate and agency businesses. So we're -- livestock agency businesses. And when you see some of the acquisitions we've announced with Charles Stewart and with the -- some of the Emms Mooney acquisitions and the Knight Frank acquisition, where it's either real estate or a blend of real estate and agency services. So we do pay a very strict attention to the businesses we buy. We do multiple assessments, probably reject maybe 70% of those that come to us. And then there might be only 10% at the end that we actually complete. So it's a very disciplined, financially driven process, but critically, there has to be a cultural and values fit.

Unknown Executive

executive
#9

Paul, post half year balance date, oldest purchase of the business that was known as Knight Frank Real Estate, Tasmania, can you speak to the scale of this business and the adjacent opportunities that it brings to Elders?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#10

Yes. Certainly, Sarah. And I might just move to Slide 20 of the investor presentation and further to Mark's comments, more broadly around real estate. So as Mark suggested, real estate has been a focus of our business development team quite over recent years. And you can see that that's manifested in significant growth across the real estate business. You can see also the diversification between property management, broadacre and residential sales. And you can also see on this slide, the opportunity for future growth with Elders, notwithstanding being a substantial player in Australian real estate. We're still only 3.34% of the addressable market that we play in. In terms of Knight Frank, we can see some of the numbers there. It is a diversified business across property management, substantial property management business, 1,500 properties, but it's also got a substantial commercial and valuations business. Both of those, both commercial and valuation represent potential adjacent opportunities for Elders more broadly across the business. And from that context, it's a very exciting acquisition for Elders, and we certainly welcome the Knight Frank team to the oldest real estate team.

Unknown Executive

executive
#11

Mark, backward integration is another pillar of Elders' growth strategy for FY '24. Can you describe what the strategy is and provide an update on progress to date?

Mark Allison

executive
#12

Yes, certainly. So the core basis of the backward integration strategy if we start with crop protection is that with products that we source ourselves and supply ourselves through our own brand, there's something like a 10% to 15% gross margin uplift. And the -- particularly with crop protection, the Australian crop protection market is largely a broadacre market with dry land winter crops and summer crops, but also some irrigated summer crops, and it's predominantly a herbicide market. The 85% of this chemistry is off patent. So it's largely a generic market. So what this means is that from an access viewpoint, with the acquisition of Titan Ag, a crop protection company, we were able to secure, I think it was over 160 regulatory packages for crop protection products, and we're able to do it ourselves. Our plan was to -- of the addressable market within Elders. So this is the amount of crop protection products that are off patent. There are generally 2 levels of patent, one at active ingredient level, at molecule level and one at formulation level. So given that both of those were out of patent, then we can copy them and sell Titan product throughout the business at a higher margin. The strategy is not to have 100% of our off-patent product with Titan labels. It's to get it to 70%. And our thinking in taking it to 70% is that this allows 30% of the volume that we have in off-patent products that we can use with third-party suppliers who are largely proprietary global suppliers with proprietary chemistry in order to maintain access to this specialized chemistry. So these are companies like ADAMA, Syngenta, Corteva, BASF, FMC, Bayer. So the strategy has been to do it over a number of years so that we don't -- so we're able to flag it to our suppliers without destroying their businesses overnight. We started at about 20% of our addressable market, backward-integrated, got to 54% last year, and our target this year is 60%, and we're on track to hit that 60%. Two other areas of backward integration are in our animal health products or the veterinary products. And we have regulatory packages for -- off-patent veterinary products that we acquired when we bought AIRR, the wholesale business. And it's the same deal where we -- in [indiscernible] products is an uplift of -- it could be 15% to 25% margin by having your own brand. And we're gradually rolling Pastoral Ag brand, which is the veterinary brand out through the Elders' network with that uplift. We've made 20% progress with veterinary products, so a way to go. And also without making it too complicated, we sell our crop protection products through Elders under the Titan Ag brand. We sell our crop protection products through AIRR and the Apparent brand. So it allows for -- any farmer in any town may get 2 quotes for a product and it may be Apparent from the AIRR member being quoted against Titan from Elders. So in either case, it allows us to gain the business. The third small area of backward integration is around specialty fertilizers. So fertigation type products that go through drip lines in orchards and glass houses, et cetera. And we're developing that. And there's also an uplift in margin with those.

Unknown Executive

executive
#13

Thank you, Mark. Paul, Elders is modernizing its business with investments in systems alongside growth initiatives, including acquisitions and new-build business such as Elders Wool. Can you speak to the impact this is having on costs in FY '24 and what Elders is doing to minimize pressure on costs?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#14

Yes, certainly, Sarah. And I'll speak to Slide 23 of the investor presentation in regards to this question, so I'll put it this way, that FY '24 is very much a foundational year for our fourth Eight Point Plan. And we're investing to achieve the 5% to 10% growth through the cycles through this fourth Eight Point Plan. So it is a foundational year. You can see on this slide what we've done, noting that our cost has increased by $24 million half-on-half, which [indiscernible] 11%. But what we see on this slide is if we separate out the additional cost that relates to acquisitions, Elders' Wool or transformational projects, the majority of that number is depreciation. And then what we see is the base growth in our cost base is about $3.9 million or 1.8%. So well below the run rate for inflation. I think that's an important distinction when analyzing the cost base this year.

Unknown Executive

executive
#15

Mark, Project Streamline is aimed at improving procurement and supply chain efficiency. Can you provide an update on progress and when benefits are expected to be realized?

Mark Allison

executive
#16

Yes. Yes, sure. Thanks, Sarah. So Project Streamline is our Rural Products supply chain optimization project. And the story starts a couple of years ago, where we owned assets all along the Rural Products supply chain. So we own a formulation facility in Eureka in Victoria. We own a supply business in Titan and also Hunter River that produces veterinary products. We own the wholesale business in AIRR, and we own a retail business in Elders, the branded Elders front end. So what we -- that all of these businesses have been running independently of each other from a supply chain viewpoint. And we felt there's a significant advantage to be gained by streamlining the businesses, taking out the overlap, the magnification of the inventory -- safety inventory levels. And so we brought L.E.K, supply chain consultant into the business, did an assessment of how we could do it without disrupting the front end, without disrupting the business and we came up with the Streamline Project. So our sense and -- it includes all the way from sales and operational planning, demand forecasting or all the way to executive shop for Paul and myself to sign off on. The size of the prize is $10 million to $18 million in NPAT. And our sense is that the balance of that prize will be in FY '25 and '26, and there's $50 million to $80 million of capital reduction through this project. And we see the benefit of that is weighting towards FY '24 and into FY '25. So really a great project, real benefits to the business. And you've seen some of the numbers in this half year presentation, where we're getting traction on the inventory front.

Unknown Executive

executive
#17

It's fantastic. Paul, the systems modernization is a multiyear project aimed at transforming Elders' systems and processes. Can you provide an overview of progress to date and the benefits for Elders over time, please?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#18

Yes, absolutely. So I'll speak to Slide 30 of the pack for this one. So SysMod is a [ 6-wave ] project. Where are we in the process? We've completed Wave 1 toward the end of FY '23. And importantly, that was completed on time and on budget. Currently, we're working on Waves 2 and 3. Wave 2 will implement systems across Microsoft Dynamics 365 for our retail business. And Wave 3 will cover the livestock business, implementing sale [indiscernible] in that regard. Wave 2 is quite advanced. So we're through solution playback to the business and just about to end-to-end testing, after which we'll move on to UAT and importantly, a single branch pilot in South Australia, where we will refine the solution before we roll it out across the business. And I think that's an important distinction from a quarantining perspective. And so very well advanced on Wave 2. We expect to complete that rollout towards the end of 2024, potentially into 2025 as well. In terms of Wave 3, that's well progressed as well and implementation will follow Wave 2, probably towards the end of the first half in 2025.

Unknown Executive

executive
#19

Thanks, Paul. Mark, the Elders Wool handling site in Ravenhall, Victoria commenced operations in January this year and has steadily built volume in the months since. Can you talk about this investment and how it will benefit the Wool industry?

Mark Allison

executive
#20

Yes. It's super exciting. This year, as you can see by the slide, this is our 185th year and the wool industry is core to our DNA as Regional Rural Australia and the communities of Regional Rural Australia are to Elders. So it was with great excitement and pride I think for Elders that we agreed, signed off the business case to invest $25 million in 2 automated facilities, one in Perth, one in Melbourne with a capacity of 380,000 bales of wool. It's the first major investment, even wool in Australia for many, many years and really gives us a significant point of difference. There's significant cost benefits in terms of moving away from our old wool handling. The facilities themselves are magnificent. We were in the Melbourne facility a few weeks ago, and it's quite impressive to see the automated machines moving back and forward. And in fact, we've decided to have an Investor Day there on November 21 to really allow everyone else, our stakeholders to be impressed like we were impressed. So a great investment, the return on the investment we place around the 80%. So it fits all of our metrics and will flow out with benefits to our clients, to ourselves, to wool quality, et cetera, et cetera. So yes, it's a really exciting but a real core Elders sort of investment.

Unknown Executive

executive
#21

Sounds great. Paul, working capital efficiency has been noted as a priority for FY '24. Can you describe progress today and the outlook for the remainder of FY '24?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#22

Yes. Certainly, Sarah. And I'll speak to Slide 24 to the investor presentation for this one. We have seen and as evident on this slide here, an increase in working capital over FY '22 and FY '23. And there's good reasons for that. We saw a material increase in both fertilizer and crop protection prices through those years. Prices came off in FY '23, as we know for both crop protection and fertilizer. We haven't seen any benefit of that at the half in FY '23. And in fact, working capital was more elevated. We saw in that financial year, an increase or quickening of supply chains leading up to half year and that manifested in higher working capital on FY '22 even. Pleasingly, what we've seen this year is a $180 million decline at balance date against prior corresponding period. And there's a couple of reasons for that. We more tightly aligned our procurement to supply chains, which are far more efficient year-on-year, but also we can see the benefit of lower input prices through our working capital. So I think a really pleasing outcome at the half, but I think also there's opportunities for further efficiency in the second half.

Unknown Executive

executive
#23

Thanks, Paul, another one for you. There is pressure evident on some of Elders' financial metrics, including accounting leverage and return on capital as a resulting of trading conditions in the first half. Can you speak to the outlook of these metrics and the pathway back to target?

Paul Rossiter

executive
#24

Yes, certainly. And specifically, we're seeing pressure on leverage and return on capital. So Slide 26 of the investor presentation certainly shows this. From a leverage point of view, we can see that accounting leverage has increased from 2.2x to 2.6x, and that's above our internal target of 1.5 to 2x. Return on capital is now below our 15% hurdle down to 11.4%. The primary reason for both of those is the very flat EBIT that was generated in Q1. And we see a gradual improvement in both of these metrics in the second half. We don't expect these metrics to return to target until half year FY '25. And at that point, we will have replaced the Q1 FY '24 with what we expect to be -- return to normal conditions in FY '25. So we're alert not alarmed about the metrics here because we see gradual improvement going forward.

Unknown Executive

executive
#25

Sure. Mark, final question. Elders gave FY '24 EBIT guidance on April 8, for between $120 million and $140 million. Can you provide an update on current seasonal conditions and the outlook for the second half?

Mark Allison

executive
#26

Yes, certainly, yes. So when we gave the guidance, we took a quite a conservative view. And with the idea that -- although I think momentum was changing, and we could see green shoots coming through, that we want to make sure that we deliver to the middle to the top of that range. So when we look at what's happened since then, there has been momentum in business performance. We've seen the East Coast rainfall very strong and early back with winter crop, 10 days before Anzac Day with Anzac Day being the optimal planting time. So through Eastern Australia, that's been positive, and the planting is well and truly on the way. There are spots in Victoria and in South Australia that is still dry. Western Australia has been -- also been dry, but there's over 50% of the crop there has been dry-seeded. And this means that the -- there are sandy soils in West Australia and parts of South Australia. So the seeds are planted with a small amount of inputs and then the -- when the rain comes through, they emerge and grow. So from our viewpoint, I would say that Eastern Australia, it's probably at average or above average apart from spots in Victoria and South Australia, West Australia, it's probably below average, but the break will come through and it's not uncommon for later breaks in West Australia. I think the positive aspect from a cropping viewpoint is that where crops are planted, has dry seeded crops, they haven't got pre-emergent product or if they have, the efficacy of it may be questionable if it takes a little while to rain. And then the fertilizer inputs are also lower. So as the crop grows, there'll be more post-emergent activity, herbicide required, recommendations, agronomic advice, and also sidedress fertilizer. So I think for the range, we feel comfortable in that respect. From a livestock viewpoint, although a number of market punts saying that livestock prices might edge up a little, and we've taken the assumption for that $120 million to $140 million range, but they'll stay where they are, which is elevated from Q1, but not to the level submarket tenants are talking about. And then I think for other areas of our business like real estate, it remains quite solid. Our -- within the property management part of our real estate business, which is around 30%, now so is growing significantly. That's a constant flow for our farmland and part of our real estate business, maybe 20%. There's a correlation with livestock prices, so it's firming. And then for regional, rural residential and city -- and franchise, city and metropolitan residential interest rates have softened, but it's ticking along. Our Financial Services business is also going well with insurance going well. So we're -- and our feed and processing business is also okay. So our thinking is that there are headwinds, but there are probably more tailwinds for the second half. And then as Paul mentioned, we'd expect with a normalized Q1, so the last 3 calendar months of this year, a normalized FY '25 Q1. I think the average for the last 5 years has been $37 million EBIT, and that was down to close to 0. So with that coming back in, then we see the financial ratios improve and we start to get back to a normal growth pattern through to the end of FY '26.

Unknown Executive

executive
#27

No more questions from me.

Mark Allison

executive
#28

Thanks, Sarah, for that. I want to know if we could open up to other questions that those from the audience may have?

Operator

operator
#29

[Operator Instructions] There are no questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Allison for closing remarks.

Mark Allison

executive
#30

Okay. Well, thank you very much, everyone, for coming along. Thanks, Sarah, and Paul, for joining me, and I trust that was an informative and enjoyable session for you as well. So thank you very much for coming to this call.

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