Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 9, 2022

New York Stock Exchange US Health Care Health Care Providers and Services conference_presentation 32 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Albert Rice

analyst
#1

Well, I'm A.J. Rice, the health care service analyst at Credit Suisse, and we're really pleased today to have next up the team from Elevance, Morgan Kendrick, Executive Vice President and -- or EVP and President of Commercial and Specialty; Chris Rigg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Commercial and Specialty; and then Steve Tanal, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, guys, so much for coming. I've started these things out asking people to talk a little bit about the wins for the year and some of the challenges. And you guys are focused particularly on the commercial side. So I might ask you that, and Steve can chime in if he wants on something more broadly. But is that all right, Morgan?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#2

That's perfectly fine. No, A.J., thank you for having us. It's a pleasure to be with everybody. And yes, this year, actually, it's -- we're finishing up '22, which we started out remarkably well from a growth perspective, notably on the upper end of our fee-based business, both in large group local business as well as our national markets. We've also concluded the '23 cycle as it relates to the national business, and we certainly know that -- we've talked about it a bit. It's been a lighter RFP season, which is expected. We all know the national business isn't consistent every year. We had a number of large jumbo cases last year. This year, we didn't see any jumbo cases of notable size, but we saw a few and did quite well. I think things that come to mind, and this is both local and national, the conversion rate. The close ratio of opportunities versus sales is up at about a 5-year high. And when we look at our persistency on our national business, and these are the most discerning buyers in the country, we are at a all-time high persistency. So persistency, strong. Conversion rate is high. That leads to me the assets resonate well we're delivering in the market, and this is both up and down market. I would say as we think about '22 and '23, 3 things employers are focused on: economics, experience and administrative simplicity. And we see that pull through in kind of how our business is performing. When we think about this phenomenon that we talked about -- our last January cycle, we saw a convergence of employers look from moving slice carrier to single vendor. We saw that this year as well. Same thing. Last year, we converted 16 groups from slice to single payer. This year, we converted 8. They were smaller cases, but nonetheless, the dynamic continues. It's a purposeful one that we want to make sure. But again, we have to deliver the goods. We have to earn the right every day, and I think that's something strong. Also, when we think about advocacy, we talk about point solutions. Point solutions are there. And I think a lot of point solutions are on the failures of the carriers, when the carriers haven't delivered their solving problem. We've got a model that we've had in place since 2018. We piloted it with a couple of broad customers, listening to them, building a clinical model and advocacy connected. We're up almost 5 -- 4.9 million members in that model. Consistently, retention is strong. That continues to grow. This year, in fact, we grow -- grew 700,000 for January. Gail talked about that in the third quarter. And then also, we think about that -- we've got -- 200,000 of those are in our local geographies. So one of the things I can say is when we think about Commercial and the wins and kind of the tailwinds that we have, too, we've harmonized the messaging and the assets that are deliverable both to our down market ASO business as well as our National Accounts. Certainly, there are going to be nuances based on the human capital strategy of the respective buyer. That said, really strong performance. And then with that, we certainly -- we've had some quite transparent conversations around margin improvement in our large group risk business. When you think about the entirety of the commercial business, we're doing quite well, continuing to grow share in individual ACA. Small group continues to do very well for us. And then the large group risk business, we certainly were behind the actual trend with our forward view. We've talked about this a number of times where at such time that we're pricing the business, we have a lens. And that lens gets clearer and clearer as you get closer. We were short on the January business and that -- you can't catch it. We certainly talked about the activities that we took in our July business, which is about 25% of the large group risk business. The financials pulled through. The margins improved. We did have attrition. It was as expected. So we were not surprised there. And we continued that trajectory into January and feel really good about both margin and persistency on that business being as-expected expectations. Chris, I don't know if you have anything else to add there. But high level, feel good about the business and feel good about the trajectory into '23.

Chris Rigg

executive
#3

Yes. Maybe from an enterprise lens, I'll sort of put a finer point on the year-to-date. We're really pleased with, frankly, the way the year is shaping up. Our current guidance, we've been able to increase it 3x. We're now expecting adjusted earnings per share greater than $28.95. It's about 15% growth off the adjusted baseline we provided last year. So really pleased to be able to deliver that. From my lens, I would say Commercial, about 1/4 of our overall revenue. Morgan did a really nice job highlighting, frankly, the good momentum that we have there, especially on the National Accounts side. But the Government Business is doing quite well as well. Medicare margins are improving year-over-year. We expected that. We see line of sight to another year of that continuing inside of Medicaid. It remains an actuarially sound rate environment. That business is performing quite well as well. We're working closely with the states on the looming sort of redetermination process that's coming here at some point next year. And so frankly, Carelon and Ingenio, really strong growth there as well. A lot of affiliated business growth this year that's been helpful there, some of which we may touch on as we talk about Commercial and some of the cost categories that our advanced analytics and services division within Carelon is managing for Commercial. But really broad-based momentum across all of our businesses, and we're really pleased with the way the year is shaping up.

Albert Rice

analyst
#4

No, that's great. A couple of things I want to ask about that you mentioned in your prepared remarks, Morgan. Just interesting, the persistency is up for you. Do you think that's true across the industry or that's something that's somewhat unique to Elevance?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#5

It's hard to tell if it's -- how our competitors are performing on that. I think, again, any time we have challenging economic times, people sort of gravitate to consistency and stability. And I think the economics that we deliver is certainly one of those, but that's the business we have. I also track kind of our win rate, where it's coming from. We do quite well in our geographies against the competition. And I feel like it's -- people are staying put a little bit more, I think, in any instance, I would say, quite honestly. But the -- in the national business, notably, I mean, these are big, large employers that are not thinking just about the economics. They're thinking about the experience, especially with the talent gap that we have, the fight for talent in the companies. They want a human capital strategy that's not only economically efficient but one that actually delivers on an advocacy model as well as provides administrative simplicity. And we're seeing those 3 sort of contribute to where the persistency sits with us.

Albert Rice

analyst
#6

And you -- talk again about moving from slice business to sole source with you all. You're the only one that really talks about that, and I think that's probably because you're the one that's getting the receiving end of that and capability of being able to take that on. What do you have to trade off? People often ask me, do you have to give up price to get that? Do you have to do anything? Or what is the employer -- what is the advantage to the employer to say, I'm going to just single source with Elevance?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#7

Yes. They're not going to do it if the economics don't make sense. The economics, which are just hard dollars as well as administrative simplicity, the additive sum of those 2 and where they weigh them individually matter. You think about just back-office talent, HR staffing. To manage multiple point solutions, multiple vendors is an arduous process. That's got an expense of its own. So that, coupled with where the economics -- look, I mean, one of the things that's our advantage that's sort of an irrefutable one of our company is scale and density in the geographies we serve. So that scale and density translating into value. And then when you look at the 36 geographies outside of the Anthem footprint, you've got -- the other Blues have substantive advantages as well. So I think that sort of amplifies that positioning. So we stay focused on that, but it's not a discount play. This is a total value play. And I think people look at it from that perspective and make decisions. And again, this year, the average case size was smaller. That said, that phenomenon continuing is something that we had not seen several years back.

Albert Rice

analyst
#8

And you got 15 last year, 8 this year, if I remember what you said, right? I mean is that still a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things? Or are these employers so big that, that's a meaningful amount of readiness?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#9

To me, it's a -- it was a meaningful amount last year because we had some very, very large cases consolidate. That dialogue -- in fact, when we look at many of the RFPs we see, the RFPs are for single solution as well as slice solution. So the employers are asking for that, and then they're weighing the economics of the 2. And we can certainly look at how do we work together and dial up that economic value, looking at high-value networks, things of that nature across the Blue system, including ours.

Albert Rice

analyst
#10

And you mentioned the whole point solution discussion. That's been an interesting topic with a lot of different guys. I go to the AHIP conference, and it's like a football field of point solutions there. How does that evolve? I mean do you become the person that sort of picks the point solutions and says, these are the ones we think in behavioral health or whatever that are the right way to go? Or is it -- I mean, it doesn't seem like the benefit managers are capable of taking it on. They're just overwhelmed. How does this evolve over time?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#11

I think a lot of it is consultant-led. And I think the consultants share the advantages of various point solutions to benefit leaders and what those values are. We certainly have preferred partners that we've done some research on and some work on to determine which ones provide the most value, that those might have a deeper integration or an easier integration point with us than others. We certainly don't communicate or school our customers on which ones to take. But at the same point in time, we're not in a position to just take all. So we believe that we've built certain assets. Our assets do indeed resonate, in particular, with the advocacy models. I mean we think about the connection back to the provider is critical to actually changing the way health care gets consumed. And I think without that provider connectivity or contract with a provider, whether it's ours or our Blue partners, it's really challenging. But again, I would never take a point of -- an arrogant approach that we've got every solution. We've got to continue to earn the right every day. I go back to we're not promising anything.

Albert Rice

analyst
#12

I mean I assume a lot of those point solutions will end up in the DBG side of the business if you guys were to actually own them. Is that something that there's a discussion where you say, hey, we're seeing a lot of interest in this area or that area, and these guys seem to be ahead of everyone else? I mean is that part of the strategy? And I know you've got an equity investment portfolio as well.

Charles Kendrick

executive
#13

I can start and ask my colleagues to camp on. I would say, certainly, as we see market trends and we see things that are close cousins to assets we already have, we certainly -- we work directly with Pete and his team on how we then augment what we have to sort of retrofit or fit into where market is moving. Also, the opportunity is always there for acquisition, if it makes sense. Again, there are a lot of ways to just augment slightly some of the services that we have. We've got the AIM solution, which started out with advanced imaging. We've got musculoskeletal. There are other components of the value equation that we're going to continue to add there, and they'll partner with us directly as we amp that through our book of business. Our customers want those things. And in particular, our customers want things where there is accretive value to them. And I like the idea of pay for value. We deliver savings. We keep a piece. They get a piece. And so it's not you're just paying me a fee for a fee. We have to deliver. We've got [ to be in trend. ]

Stephen Tanal

executive
#14

Yes. A.J., that's absolutely part of the strategy for Carelon. The expectation and the reality is that they work hand in hand with both our government division as well as the commercial division to figure out what are those assets that would better position the health plans to compete in the marketplace or just manage your costs better, right, or deliver better experiences, et cetera. And so that's really the strategy of Carelon. It's the play we've been running. I think there's a lot of runway there. So yes, this is exactly what we're doing.

Albert Rice

analyst
#15

And where are the pain points with employers on behavioral? We keep hearing about that. There was some discussion about fertility and family planning. That seems to have subsided a little bit now. But where are the areas of focus that you would say out there?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#16

As they sort of have made this shift, and this is not brand new, it's probably 5 years old, but the shift from benefits plan to human capital strategy, the experience, how is this -- how do you simplify the complex from a front-end perspective, and I think marrying front end and clinical together and leveraging your assets, whether you're getting after your chronic, you're episodic and you're well. You're leveraging your modalities appropriately to get out most efficiently in the easiest way for the consumer. That continues to be a big, big piece. Beacon or behavioral health is certainly a big one, and it's more around access and out-of-network cost controls. Lack of access [ pitches ] more cost out of network, which is a problem. How do we then solve that, and we're working with Pete and team on the Beacon asset as we look at the commercial market as well.

Albert Rice

analyst
#17

There's been a lot of focus on getting the margin improved in the Commercial business. Where are you at relative to your target? And where will you be next? As you look forward, do you think you can get pretty much to where you want in a year? Or is it a couple of year thing?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#18

I'll start and say it takes a minute to get -- to need -- to improve your margin trajectory, and it takes another minute to fix it. So it's not a one and done. And so I think, again, 25% of the book we caught, and we got really, really -- we got a good number for July. January, same thing. We feel good. Nonetheless, there's always going to be some struggled hiccups. Stop loss is a piece of that. We started that endeavor. We got a little bit ahead of it because you -- the renewals had not gone out last fall. So we got that taken care of. But Chris, I'll let you reply as well to trajectory and timing.

Chris Rigg

executive
#19

Yes. There's a couple of things. I mean if you think about our individual and small group businesses, they're performing fine, some incremental improvement there. With regard to the large group fully insured, that typically takes a full 18 to 24 months to sort of correct the underperformance we've seen recently, and we feel like we're comfortably on that trajectory. Over the next 2 to 3 years, critical to getting the margin up to target levels is really improving the overall margin of the fee-based business. So while we're going to correct the large group margin over 18 to 24 months, it's going to take roughly 3-ish years just to get that -- the self-funded margin up to the target level we need to hit the overall CSBD target profit level in 2025.

Albert Rice

analyst
#20

I can understand a little bit about the risk business, especially thinking about pricing last year. You had COVID coming in and out. You had utilization jumping around, and maybe now we're normalizing a little bit. And that was hard to predict. I'm not sure I understand why the fee-based business margin. What's the genesis [ of it? ]

Charles Kendrick

executive
#21

Yes. And maybe I should clarify because it probably does get lumped in with risk. I mean one of the big driver of our underperformance in fee-based has been stop loss, which is a risk-based product, but it's embedded in the fee-based [indiscernible]. So fixing that, which is on the same trajectory of the fully insured margin, is critical. But then it is about the incremental upsell, selling more stop loss, selling more aligned incentive programs, particularly [ PI. ] And that will drive that margin up over the multiyear period.

Stephen Tanal

executive
#22

Maybe I'll put a finer point on this, just to go back to the commitments we have made about the segment margin for Commercial, right? At the Investor Day in March of '21, we showed a path from 2020 to 2025 equating to around 140 basis points of margin expansion at the time. Clearly, 2 years later, we've underperformed that. And so when you think about what the ground we're kind of trying to make up over the next 3 years, your order of magnitude, over 300 basis points. And what we've said about it is don't expect it to be ratable over '23, '24, '25. '23 should be a bigger step, some more in '24 and then more incremental in '25 as we get there. But to go back to the Investor Day, the 140 basis points that we were targeting over 5 years at the time was all mix shift. And it was just this idea that we would be able to sell more, frankly, into the fee-based side where the margin rates are higher. And so that's really what is sort of the second driver, if you think about it in 2 pieces. Cleaning up the risk, the bad risk in the large group risk side and then ultimately mix shifting the segment toward fee-based business, just to put a finer point.

Albert Rice

analyst
#23

Is the mix shifting part, has that been on track, and it's really the rest of it where there's been...

Stephen Tanal

executive
#24

Absolutely. It's been...

Charles Kendrick

executive
#25

Yes, we're staying on track, yes.

Stephen Tanal

executive
#26

Yes. We've talked about that to the 5:1 to 3:1 lens.

Albert Rice

analyst
#27

Right, right. So that is now -- I mean, I think that got slowed down a little bit in the early stages of the pandemic, but now you're sort of progressing towards that. When you think about '23, you have the experience of what happened in July 1 with the reset and the attrition associated with that. Is your assumption for the next year, repricing -- the attrition is basically the same? Or have you given yourself a little leeway? Or are you assuming you'll do better for some reason in terms of attrition rate as those prices -- repricing goes through?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#28

I'll start with -- as we think about January, which is the biggest [ cohort, ] we expect it to be in line with what we saw in July, but a broader -- a bigger bucket. When we get back to July next year, we would expect it to be better because we've priced the business. Now we're sort of on our trajectory that's just in line with the trends that we're seeing. We don't have a miss that we're making up in that book. So we do expect that persistency to get better starting in July.

Albert Rice

analyst
#29

And what are you thinking about cost trend? Are we getting back to sort of a mid-single-digit normalized cost trend? And there's a lot of chatter about whether plants are having to up a little bit to help out, especially hospitals facing these labor challenges. Where does Elevance fall out on all that?

Stephen Tanal

executive
#30

We haven't provided a specific number, but Chris, do you want to provide some color on that one?

Chris Rigg

executive
#31

Without giving specific trend guidance, what I would say is that the unit cost dynamic with regard to the provider contracting is something we're following very closely. So we feel well -- we feel comfortable that, that's calibrated appropriately in our pricing. With regard to 2023, it's not just a trend dynamic. We are trying to get a little bit of margin. So we are going to see some lower persistency relative to long-term history, but again, in line with July. But net-net, I would expect our large group fully insured business to see a decline but still have strong fully insured performance given our position in Individual ACA and small group.

Albert Rice

analyst
#32

Okay, okay. A lot of talk, and you guys are probably tired of talking about it, about what happens if we have an economic slowdown, a recession, et cetera. I assume in your discussions this selling season, the focus is on, we got to keep these employees happy because the labor markets are still tight. But is there any talk as you -- I mean, I know you reprice some of that -- or reduce some of that small group throughout the year. Is anything creeping into the discussion about what's happening with the economic backdrop?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#33

Yes, that's a big part of it. We're stewarding the case as a down market, 15, 20 -- we have a small group area that does -- that talks with the customers and stays in front of it. So we're sharing network alternatives, benefit buydown alternatives, formulary modifications. So we're talking to them about the strategy. And I would define them -- we've got employers who are looking for cost reduction. We have employers who are looking for sort of experience improvement. Back to your point, it depends on where they are in the labor ranking -- labor force. It's what is their business made of, what are they trying to do? But everybody has got a talent gap problem. But some of them are in a different position as it relates to the economics that would go with sweetening the pot, so to speak, for the benefit plan. And we're having the dialogue. We're seeing people take a look. In fact, when we look at the conclusion of the national business, we saw a doubling of customers electing a high-performing network alongside their standard network. So that appetite has been there, and it continues to grow. We're looking at various -- and we talked about this, Gail talked about it at the third quarter earning. We looked at the various modalities that we think are putting in a market. Every employer has got 4 generational cohorts from the boomers all the way to Gen Z and how do they consume health care and how do we build a benefit plan that's not homogeneous for one piece, but serves all. And that's been an interesting dynamic as well, and we've got new product and market anchoring around health systems and having aggregators and virtual modalities sort of serve as backup. And we think there's something there. We're testing that in Nevada right now but know -- feel good that the market is ready for things like that, and that's part of this recession planning, having different strategies, formularies as well as benefit designs and networks.

Albert Rice

analyst
#34

And we hear about virtual first, and there's been a bunch of discussion about that. My sense is employer take-up has been pretty slow. I don't know whether you would confirm that. But what do you think about that? And when you talk about options for making a product more affordable, how much of a differential if you were to take a virtual first versus a traditional risk product might there be? Is that a savings of 5% or savings of something larger than that?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#35

The savings are hard to determine. I think it's -- when you marry it up to a system, and you -- that's usually where the savings are going to come from and how you're going to actually manage the care differently than the fact that it's just a digital front-end piece. Now we do have a model that is a front-end. You elect -- it's a brick-and-mortar facility or it's a virtual primary care. That would be your primary care. There wouldn't be an alternative there. You would have advanced -- you would sort of transition into a broader physical world when need occurred. I wouldn't say the appetite is -- or the uptake has been negligible. We certainly saw a crescendo in the beginnings of COVID, but it was more convenience-based in our urgent care. I think as we start thinking about virtual primary care in areas where primary care is limited, the uptake is bigger. We've put it across much of our fully insured business as well as a large number of our self-funded business. So the appetite is there. It's just continuing to refine how it manifests.

Albert Rice

analyst
#36

And we talked about the 5:1 to 3:1 strategy. Obviously, there's excitement about what's going on in DBG. I wonder, how much are your selling effort tied to that? Do you guys -- are your guys incentivized that if you can cross-sell DBG services, there's some upside to them? Or is that sort of operating as a silo? Maybe talk a little bit about how the Commercial business is helping drive what's going on over there.

Charles Kendrick

executive
#37

Totally. That's -- first of all, I think a lot of -- it's brand new, but we've got assets that are there today, many we've talked about where we've capitated our AIM products, our Beacon products, things of that nature. As we move forward, we're working tightly with our Carelon partners to how do we, again, drive value. So we're hand in glove. Yes, our people are incented. So it's not a silo. It's a collaborative effort. And when I think about it, when we have need, back to your point earlier with the point solutions, it's not an if, it's more of a how do we work together and how do we come together because we've got a big, big opportunity for the Carelon partners. And in fact, many of the folks on the commercial side have gone over to the Carelon side. So I think it provides that sort of tribal knowledge in that cohort of our business to [ aid in the bid ] as we look at amplifying value in the market.

Albert Rice

analyst
#38

And how about with the PBM? Because I know that was a big part of the 5:1 to 3:1. Comment on that.

Charles Kendrick

executive
#39

It continues to improve. We've -- we see appetite where -- the pendulum swings. We saw the pendulum swing to one of carve-out on Rx. It's almost swung back to sort of economic conditions, how can we get a better deal if we combine the 2 pieces? How can we get an administrative simplicity when you combine the 2 pieces? And we've done well. We've got opportunity to continue on the upper end of the national business. And again, that's closed for '23. We're hot into '24 already on that business. And no, it's a big opportunity for us in the future as well, Carelon Rx.

Albert Rice

analyst
#40

Okay. Okay. And are you getting a seat at the -- well, this is more a comment about the PBM side of it. But are you getting a seat at the table when your large accounts come up for bid? I mean does that increasingly happen? Or is there a high percentage where it's still the big 3 and that we're not really talking to others?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#41

They -- no, I think people are open. People are open for how do they have an administratively simple, a better experience and the economics that match their budgets. So I think they are open definitely. And so I would say, yes, they do have a seat at the table.

Albert Rice

analyst
#42

Okay, okay. We talked about whether employers are looking at the economic background and making decisions based on that. How about just your own planning for that and thinking through what that might mean to the Elevance Commercial business? And we certainly have heard a lot of discussion about getting ready for reverifications. And particularly on the individual exchange side, people are like thinking, I need to -- if I've got a Medicaid business, I need to make sure that we're in touch with some of those guys that might lose coverage. Is that also true in your small group business? I don't know whether -- maybe somebody is employed, but they have -- they've just said, well, I'm still on Medicaid. So I'm not taking the coverage. Now you better be aware. You might need to take the coverage that your employer is offering. So there's a lot in that question, but let me throw that out.

Stephen Tanal

executive
#43

It's quite a bit. I'll start with the enterprise lens.

Charles Kendrick

executive
#44

[indiscernible] piece, and I'll take the [indiscernible].

Stephen Tanal

executive
#45

Yes. I'll start enterprise lens. So look, we've been very, I think, thoughtful about the macroeconomic environment for some time now and had a really concerted effort to plan for contingencies related to the macro earlier this year, coming into this year. And so I think Morgan did a great job describing how we're prepared on the commercial side just to meet the needs of clients as they evolve, and that's true. But from an enterprise lens, what I wanted to highlight before, too, is frankly, this company has become much more balanced. And so it's difficult to look at past recessions here and extrapolate, right? So just for starters, in the '08, '09 time frame, Commercial was 70% of Anthem's revenue. Today at Elevance Health, it's less than 25%, right? We have a ton of scale in Medicaid. So generally speaking, we feel we have much more balanced resilience in the face of any sort of garden-variety recession, to use a term that gets thrown around a lot. So for starters, there's that. I would say, of course, it's important to highlight that back then, you didn't have the Medicaid expansion for able-bodied adults. And so there's more of a safety net there. Of course, HIX as well. The exchanges didn't exist in the '08, '09 time frame, but you have those now. You also have enhanced subsidies that have been extended. So I think generally speaking, the industry is in a better position for us, even more so, just given the scale that we have in all those businesses. So a lot of planning, a lot of thought has gone into it. I think we're pretty well prepared to, frankly, adapt to employers' needs should they evolve. But an important point is as of today, we have not seen any in-group attrition in the commercial side that would be indicative of a tougher labor market either. So we're watching it closely, but feel we're really well positioned. And Morgan, if you want to take number two?

Charles Kendrick

executive
#46

Yes. Relative to the redetermination question, we've been working for quite some time with our government partners as you can imagine, too. Our job is to work with our state partners and make sure the folks that are redetermined not to be eligible for Medicaid don't go uninsured. And so we've got processes in place. We've got opportunities. I mean the Medicaid ranks have swelled north of 7 million in the 14 geographies where we have Blue license. 2.5 million of that are in our existing Medicaid markets. I have that number right?

Stephen Tanal

executive
#47

Well, 7.5 million total new Medicaid beneficiaries in our Commercial footprint. If you look at Medicaid, which is a different footprint, 26 states. We've picked up 2.7 million lives. I like to call that unexplained organic growth, right? So take out RFPs, take out M&A, we're up 2.7 million in Medicaid. That's what they're defending, but Morgan and Chris are focused on 7.5 million total beneficiaries and what happens to them and make sure we get our full share of the -- anybody who transitions into...

Charles Kendrick

executive
#48

So when we work through those, it goes back to your point, are they small group, are they large group, are they national account, employed either now, didn't -- weren't employed when they got Medicaid or couldn't afford the contribution. There's a belief with expansion of the enhanced subsidies that the ACA will be a great place. Now we've worked that strategically to -- we've got a really good solid footprint for a second lowest silver or lowest silver, in particular in California and some highly populous geographies, for the '23 cycle. So we feel good about that -- really good about it. We think, again, it's a ground game. How do these folks -- once we determine they're eligible or not, they stick or they don't, then they move over to determine what other options. So we've got strong commercial groups, small group, large group in every one of our geographies as well as really strong footprint. We cover now 95% of the total addressable market in the 14 markets with an exchange product.

Albert Rice

analyst
#49

Okay. Do you think that there are a meaningful number of people that qualify for Medicaid, probably didn't have a job, now are working for a small employer or something and just didn't -- and still have the Medicaid coverage because they -- if they take the commercial, there's probably copays and deductibles associated that they don't -- they would rather not pay?

Stephen Tanal

executive
#50

Or that simply nobody has checked if they're still eligible for Medicaid, right? So oftentimes, this gets asked, the double counted population. So I think the most important thing to start is when we look -- and we look at this and we track it, frankly, iteratively, but there's always a double count. And historically, prepandemic, about 1% of our Medicaid membership, you could actually see in the commercial side, right? And so I think the most important concept to remember is rates are set for a pool of risk, and you'll have people who don't utilize benefits in any given pool, and that's normal for this business. So now fast forward to today, you haven't had redeterminations for a few years. So it's a bit higher than 1%, but we're still talking very low single-digit percentages. And so that membership population is not large. We are tracking what they utilize and where. And frankly, some of them are still using some Medicaid benefits and commercial, some are more on commercial, some are more on Medicaid. But that population in and of itself, I would say, doesn't cause us concern.

Albert Rice

analyst
#51

Okay, okay. Well, I think on that, we'll need to wrap it up. Morgan, Chris, Steve, thanks so much for doing it. And thanks to Elevance for participating in our conference once again this year.

Stephen Tanal

executive
#52

Thank you for having us.

Charles Kendrick

executive
#53

Thank you.

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