Eltel AB (publ) (ELTEL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this live webcast. Today, we will present Eltel's Results for the First Quarter of 2022. My name is Elin Otter, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations here at the Eltel. With me, I have our President and CEO, Casimir Lindholm and our CFO, Saila Miettinen-Lahde. Casimir and Saila will present the results. And after that, we will open up for questions. [Operator Instructions] With that, let's move to Page 3, while I hand over the word to you, Casimir.

Thank you, Elin. So a short introduction around Eltel. Eltel was founded in 2001. We are the leading field-service provider within communication and power in the Nordics. We also operate in Poland, Germany and Lithuania. Net sales, more than EUR 800 million last year and roughly 5,000 employees. Let's move to Page 4 and look at the highlights of the third (sic) [ first ] quarter. Over the last couple of years, we have invested a lot of time and effort in turning Eltel around and build the foundation for growth. And now we can see growth in Q1 for the first time since 2017, with particularly strong growth in Norway and Sweden. Operative EBITA was affected negatively mainly by harsh winter conditions. That meant that we couldn't start mainly fibre projects until April. COVID-19 had an impact clearly on us in Q1. Our sick leave rates were almost double compared to normal sick leave rates during the winter period. And then last but not least, cost inflation was and will be, I think, to work with over the next couple of months going forward. We will come back around cost inflation shortly. We signed 3 large agreements, and I will come back to those as well. We also increased our collaboration with customers and partners and our supply chain regarding sustainability. With that, we can now move to Page 5. So cost inflation is the hot topic, and it impacts us in all our markets. We are working hard to mitigate that. We are negotiating and discussing with both customers and subcontractors to us. And we are seeking compensation from our main customers. Materials that are affected by inflation is mainly fuel. We have 2,800 cars and on top of that, of course, we have a substantial contracting base. Asphalt is also affecting us mainly then in fibre projects, where asphalt is a big part. On the power side, steel is the main material component that has been affected likely by the inflation and particularly, the war in Ukraine. So there is a risk of negative impact from inflation for 2022. With that, let's move to Page 6. Major agreements signed. Banedanmark in Denmark signed a communication agreement, and that's an agreement that we had in the past as well, really good that we can defend that market share and continue to be the main supplier towards Banedanmark in these areas in communication in the years to come. DNA in Finland, frame agreement also in communication, that's also an agreement that we have had in the past and again, a good [ defense ] and the continuation of that good relationship that we have with DNA in Finland. VALOREM is a project in power in Finland and also a substantial one for the next couple of years. With that, I hand over to Saila who will take us through the numbers on the next page, that is Page 7.

Thank you, Casimir. Starting off for the full group for Q1 and the results, of course, well, it needs to be noted that Q1, of course, is the most difficult for us during the year and the seasonality with it, but I can help -- not help but reiterate what Casimir already mentioned that Q1 this year actually showed net sales growth for the first time since Q1 2017, i.e., 5 years ago. And with that, the net sales for the quarter came up to EUR 184 million versus EUR 182 million last year, and the growth indeed was 1.1%. And we similarly also saw growth in our segments, meaning the Nordic countries, our key markets, of EUR 0.4 million and in Other businesses also, we saw a EUR 2 million increase in net sales. For profitability, the operative EBITA for the quarter landed at minus EUR 2.4 million, which unfortunately is a bit short of the minus EUR 0.7 million that we saw last year. And with that, the margin was at minus 1.3%. The key drivers for the development were indeed the ones that Casimir already mentioned, meaning that winter has been very harsh along, particularly in Finland and Sweden. And whilst COVID-19 has received far less attention since the war in Ukraine started in February, is still indeed was quite a significant impact on our workforce utilization rates and productivity, especially in January and February. And then lastly, indeed, especially in March, the inflation started hitting our profitability. But before moving to the next page, I think that I still want to draw your attention, indeed on the graph on the top right-hand side, which after a long wait and years and quarters of hard work shows really the leveling out of the net sales and our entering the phase of sustainable profitable growth. With that, let's now move on to Page 8 and look at segment Finland. Finland, for some time already, has been our steady performer and showed that development also in Q1 this year. Net sales came to EUR 58.8 million that is slightly short of EUR 60.8 million last year. However, I think we're happy to note that there is very strong demand for fibre and 5G in the country, but particularly the fibre work was impacted by the winter conditions. Hence, the strong demand did not yet materialize in the net sales numbers to that extent in the quarter. On the power market, transmission also remains very strong. But the net sales for Q1 impacted some phasing of projects. On the operative EBITA, I think we can refer to good productivity contributing to the numbers that came to EUR 0.9 million for the quarter, slightly better than EUR 0.7 million last year. And also, this is becoming quite familiar to you by now, but of course, the negative impacts came from winter, COVID and cost inflation. The operative EBITA was positively impacted by annual bonus payments that we've received from our pension insurance companies. And as a bit of background to that notion, we can mention that no, this is not anything new. We typically do get such bonus payments based on the investment returns of the pension insurance companies for the previous year. And as it happens, last year was quite good for them. But then -- so meaning that the payment was maybe somewhat larger than last year. However, the difference primarily here is in the timing. Typically, we have received those payments in Q2. And this year, indeed, we received those in Q1. And in terms of the impact, if you look at the EBITA margin, I have to say that no, we would not have improved over last year without the help of these bonus payments. But with that, let's go on to move to Page [ 4 ] (sic) [ 9 ] , Sweden. Sweden Q1, I think certainly deserve to mention that growth in the country now finally continued. And we came to net sales of EUR 43.9 million versus EUR 41.1 million last year. And that in itself actually showed quite substantial 6.9% growth. And even more so, if you look at the actual business performance locally, then the growth in local currency was above 10%, at 10.3%. And the drivers for the growth. One key is the smart metering projects that we have in Sweden that are currently just ramping up. And beyond that, I think that it also is noteworthy that communication business overall then also grew measured in the local currency. On profitability, the operative EBITA came to minus EUR 1.8 million, which unfortunately is EUR 1 million short of the minus EUR 0.8 million last year. The impact came from an investment into our One Eltel program, which shows the negative impact now. But of course, we do expect it to contribute positively going forward. And then winter, COVID and cost inflation, of course, playing into the game. And unfortunately, we still have some remnants of the old projects where we had to, again, make some margin adjustments. With that, let's move on to Page 10 and Norway. You may recall that Norway last year was falling behind expectations maybe due to the rather low investment levels by customers in the country. And whilst last year was disappointing from that point of view, we're clearly seeing an improvement now, meaning that the net sales in Norway came to EUR 41.6 million, which is 22.5% above last year's figure of EUR 33.9 million. So indeed, the growth was quite substantial. And beyond what we saw in Q1, I think we certainly need to and want to note that we also have a very strong order backlog for the remainder of the year. And indeed, the reason for that is that what was held down in terms of customer investments, particularly in fibre and 5G last year, is showing up on our books this year. Operative EBITA also grew from EUR 1.2 million last year to EUR 1.4 million this year. That said, unfortunately, the EBITA margin slightly came down to 3.4%, primarily due to the utilization rates that were hurt by COVID-19 in the first quarter. Let's now move to Page 11 for Denmark. In Denmark, it is already by now old news that in Q2 last year, we lost substantial sales due to a partial insourcing of a large customer agreement. And with that, the net sales in this year's Q1 came to EUR 18.1 million, down from EUR 26.2 million last year. Of course, we're working hard to revert to the growth path. And partly, we do expect our new frame agreements, including the one from Banedanmark that Casimir already mentioned, to help. However, unfortunately, still in Q1, the ramp-up of the new agreements turned out to be slower than we expected, which then hurt the first quarter in itself as well. On operative EBITA, Denmark came to a positive figure of EUR 0.2 million. But of course, that is quite a bit down from EUR 1.3 million last year. And indeed, the main driver was the lower volumes. And given the fact that reverting to the growth path on net sales and resuming previous levels in net sales is taking some time inevitably, we're also now looking into optimizing the cost structure so that we can carry out [ decent ] profitabilities also through the growth phase going forward. With that, let's go to Page 12 and look at Other business. Our Other business in Q1 actually also grew and showed net sales of EUR 23.5 million, up from EUR 21.4 million last year. And comparing to previous news from High Voltage Poland, you may be somewhat surprised that the net sales there actually grew. That said, the growth primarily came from realization of net sales from projects that were delayed and postponed last year. Beyond that, our Smart Grids unit in Germany continued to perform well, and the market there remains quite positive for us. Operative EBITA for Other business came to minus EUR 0.6 million, meaning it's still negative, however, less so than last year when it was minus EUR 0.9 million and contributing to that, then Smart Grids, again, positive performance. High Voltage overall had an EBITA of minus EUR 1.3 million for the quarter, but I think we do definitely want to note that we are seeing increasingly better and good operational performance, which, of course, we look forward to helping those figures then in due course. Then finally, let's take a look at some leverage and net debt, i.e., balance sheet items on the last finance page. Leverage, as you may recall, was at rather high level still 2 years ago. Since then, we have been able to take it down to roughly the level of 3, varying up and down a bit with seasonality. Our longer-term target is to decrease it to between 1.5 and 2.5. And I'd say the distance to that targeted level is no longer huge, so we do believe it certainly should be achievable. Net debt, similarly, we have come down to substantially -- from substantially higher levels. And at Q1, we were at EUR 136 million versus EUR 146 million last year in Q1. So again, continued positive development and also on the return on operative capital employed, while of course Q1, again, in a seasonal fashion showed a bit of a dip, but the overall development over longer periods of time still remains positive. That concludes the financial part of the presentation. And whilst I hand it back over to Casimir, then we will move on to Page 14.

Thank you, Saila. We can then move to the next page. So all in all, our core markets are healthy, and we continue to be a leader in communications throughout the Nordics and in power in Finland. 5G and fibre are the main drivers in the communication market, and on top of that, also we are active in dismantling 3G and copper networks. And in power, there is a clear demand to upgrade and modernize power grids in the Nordics. And of course, for -- from our view, the main market is Finland there. So despite the continued strong demand, there are significant uncertainties in the market due to the war in Ukraine and increased inflation. Even though we are working hard to mitigate the effects of the inflation, we are no longer in a position to give guidance for 2022. And therefore, we remove such guidance. The previous guidance stated that the company expects the full year 2022 operative EBITA margin to increase compared to 2021. Let's move to Page 16. And as a consequence, we have also, for the same reason as for the guidance, extended the long-term financial targets for operative EBITA margin and leverage until 2025. Previously, it was 2023. The growth target in the Nordics from 2022 onwards remains intact. So no changes on that target. We can move to Page 17 and to look where we are on our journey. So as we have stated previously here today, we are in a sustainable, profitable growth path and we can see the first evidence of that in Q1 in 2022. So we are continuing on that path and also looking at improving the profitability in -- mainly in Sweden, where we are investing in similar activities that we have done previously in both Finland and Denmark. And M&As is also on the list going forward. And with that conclusion, we move to Page 18 and open for any questions that you might have.

[Operator Instructions] We have received some questions already. So I will start with a first question that comes from Max Bacco at ABG SC. An overview of the cost structure has been initiated in Denmark. Could you elaborate on this?

Yes. If you recall, the loss of partial insourcing by one of our main customers in Denmark last year, that took us down from roughly EUR 100 million level in net sales in Denmark, down to below EUR 90 million. And the target is to move up again to the EUR 100 million level of net sales in Denmark. Then this has been then a balance to look at the cost structure and look at the investments that we are doing in increasing that net sales and get back to the EUR 100 million level, and that's the base of the cost structure that we have in place. So -- and that net sales growth is coming, maybe a bit slower than we hoped for. So now we are reviewing the cost structure and trying to balance how much we invest and how much we are, let's say, have patience regarding the net sales growth to get back to EUR 100 million level.

Thank you. Further on from Max and then on Denmark, the soft margin in Denmark are all due to lost volumes.

To a large extent, that... [Technical Difficulty] Is the sound back?

The sound is back now, and we can start over with the question because we lost you or sound from the studio when I asked the question about the margin in Denmark are all due to the lost volumes.

Main factor is the lost volume. And as mentioned before in the first question, we are balancing then the investments that we need for organic growth going forward and how much time we spend on that and, of course, cost as well. So we are reviewing that again, and yes, the main item is lost volume.

And the soft margins in Sweden. Could you give some more flavor on this and on your expectations going forward?

Yes. So in Sweden, we are still ending a couple of old projects that are in power in Q2. So that is one part of the softer margins in Sweden. Then we are, again, investing in efficiency and profitability improvements in Sweden that will pay off later on similar projects that we have implemented in Finland and Denmark before, and they have given a good result. So I would say, partly all projects in power and then investing into profitability and improved efficiency, mainly, I would say, the northern parts of Sweden. So yes, we expect Sweden to turnaround this year and last but not least, of course, supported by the new projects in Smart Grids.

Very good. And regarding Finland, this is also from Max. Operative EBITA was positively impacted by the annual bonus payments received from pension insurance companies. How much did this contribute to the operative EBITA? And do you have a similar positive contribution in 2021?

As Saila mentioned here before, the timing here is different compared to last year. So now we got the bonus -- bonuses in Q1 and last year in Q2. Finland's result would have been slightly below last year's figures if that bonus was then postponed to Q2 this year.

Thank you. And the guidance was removed. Can you say anything about your expectations on the margin for '22? Is it flat year-over-year or do you think you will go down year-over-year?

As mentioned before, I mean, the main reason why we removed the guidance is the uncertainty in the market regarding inflation. We are working with our customers, we are negotiating, and we are also looking through the whole value chain, how it will impact the business. And on top of that, of course, we are looking at new sourcing -- sources, for example, for steel and see what kind of terms and conditions and prices we can come up with in a totally new situation.

Can you give us an explanation on how Eltel will reach 5% margin in 2025 compared to 1.8% in '21? How much will come from phasing out on profitable contracts, economies of scale, efficiency improvement, et cetera?

I will put that in 3 different baskets. The main one is, of course, that we need to turn around our operations in Poland. That is the main negative impact. The other part is, of course, that Sweden needs to be positive, and the effects of the improvement and efficiency programs needs to pay off. And the third one is that we can continue on the growth path that we have seen now for the first time in Q1. So those are -- I would say those are the 3 main elements and the growth path, of course, taking also into account Denmark that was addressed here early.

Thank you. Now, we have -- that concludes the questions from Max Bacco from -- at ABG SC. Now let's move on to questions from Robin Nyberg at Carnegie. He is also asking about the guidance and withdrawness on that. Can you still confirm that you expect to report a positive operative EBITA for 2022?

As we removed the guidance and of course, we do not guide closer than that. So I think at this stage, the main part is to focus on the discussions and negotiations with customers and again, securing supply of key materials to as good prices as possible in this new market. And I think we'll come back to this topic then in Q2 report and onwards.

Okay. Financial targets were postponed. Cost inflation should be a temporary issue. What are the key reasons for postponing the targets?

Again, inflation is the #1 as the main topic, and it's an uncertain world. So in that sense, that's the main reason and the main topic.

Net debt/EBITDA is above target levels. How confident are you about the strength of the balance sheet? Will you need more capital?

I think we have done a lot of work on the balance sheet side and the net debt is on a healthy level. So no, we don't have any activities as such in that area.

And the Polish business has been challenging. What is the status over there?

As we have said before, we are looking at strategic alternatives for the Polish business and that work continues. And at the same time, we have continued to improve the business. And if you take out the inflation impact, we were looking at more of a plus/minus 0 result for Poland this year. And the inflation impact is mainly hurting us in the power business in Poland and partly in Finland because of the components of steel, cables and concrete and also in Poland, the availability of subcontractors due to the war in Ukraine. So just as an example, there were 307,000 Ukrainians working in the infra industry and the construction industry and 40% of them returned to their home country when the war started and are now fighting on the front lines. So that, of course, had a huge impact on the Polish market, both in construction and infra. So those are the main reasons why we are still struggling in Poland now. Well, for a new reason.

I think that's a good bridge over to questions from Joonas Ilvonen at Evli. Has the war somehow caused any project delays?

Not in Q1, too early to say, then we'll see in Q2. And that is also part of discussions and dialogues with customers regarding inflation. For example, in Poland, where we see compensation and there might be delays to projects going forward. If we do not see compensation regarding inflation, then that might happen, yes. But in the Nordics, we haven't seen any postponements yet. On the contrary, as stated before, 5G and fibre markets are very active in the Nordic countries. So I would say the main worry regarding postponed projects would be then in the Polish market then we might see projects here and there where our customers have calculated in their budgets with a number what the cost would be for that project. And now with the inflation going on, our and our competitors' bids towards those customers and those projects, those bids might be higher and then there is a delay. That is, of course, also possible and quite natural in these circumstances.

Good. With what kind of lag would you expect to receive compensation for the increased costs?

That will vary from country to country, but I would say the Nordics that will be handled, as we speak, mainly during Q2. Then regarding the Polish market, that might take a longer time, partly because of the nature of the business and partly, of course, there are cultural differences on how to handle a situation like this. So I would say, during Q2, we will have most negotiations and discussions and agreements in place and some of them are already in place.

And we have -- I think this will be the final question, and it comes from [ Mr. Jose Koskinen ]. The financial target was postponed with 2 years. Do you assume that inflation has such a long impact or how would you describe the other reasons behind the postponement?

Well, it's, of course, difficult to say. But at this stage, we have assumed that it's a prolonged conflict and a prolonged war and thus inflation will stay with us for quite some time. So that is the assumption right now.

Okay. Then there are no further questions. So this concludes the call. Please continue to follow us and feel free to reach out to me if you have any further questions. We do present our Q2 report on the 26th of July, and hopefully, you will join that presentation as well. Until then, stay safe, and thanks for joining. Have a good day.